Monthly Archives: November 2024

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 2

They’re hot and ready here. Let’s actually talk about the process a little bit this week.

Step 1 is to project out each team’s record. To make it slightly less vibes-based, I use SP+ to project each team’s remaining matchups. I ignore any team with 8 or more losses, as there’s no chance for them to make a bowl game. Step 2 is to project the playoff. This was hard when it was the BCS, slightly harder when it was the 4-team playoff, and now with 12? All bets are off, but I’m trying my best. This is also why the new projections tend to come out after the new rankings, as I use the current rankings to try to gain some insight into the Committee’s thinking. Almost certainly the most controversial choice I made was putting Indiana in over Tennessee. If what everyone thinks will happen to the Hoosiers happens this weekend, next week’s ranking will be very useful to determine if they still have a shot.

Step 3 is to start filling in the bowls based on the non-playoff teams. I start with the Power 4 and the zombie Pac-12, as their tie-ins are slightly less to the whims of what ESPN decides to do. After that, I start filling in the G5 teams as needed. The conference matchups you see on the page are more or less… guidelines, and generally speaking for any ESPN Events-owned bowl just about anything can happen. This makes this process maddening, but I’ve been doing this since 1999 and I’m not going to stop now.

Step 4 is to then determine what, if any, backfill is needed. Right now the projected record leaves me 4 teams sort of the 6-6 mark. There’s no transitioning teams this season that will be bowl-eligible, so we go straight to APR ranking the projected 5-7 teams. That’s how Cincinnati, Central Florida, Virginia, and Boston College got in this week. It could well be different next week, as upsets tend to add more 6-6 teams.

As a reminder, I have no special insight into what anyone who is responsible for these games is actually thinking. I don’t really keep track of the accuracy of the projections because of this. It’s gotten harder over time, but it’s still a fun exercise.

Some quick sports-columnist-esque notes on the matchups:

  • Boise State’s best “win” is almost certainly going to be their 3-point less to Oregon back in September.
  • I don’t really love that 8 of the 12 spots are going to the Big Ten and SEC, and I love even less the change those conferences are shoving through to give themselves 4 autobids regardless. I don’t think the ACC and Big 12 are necessarily doomed to only get one team in each season (and I definitely think the Big 12 will be better next season).
  • The specific order of the CFP First Round matchups is more-or-less a guess, but I would guess if Oregon gets a late game, they will get one of the later slots. The main thing to watch is how the subcontracting with TNT goes, i.e., if ESPN gets to decide what to keep (because in that case, a Notre Dame home game would almost certainly be on ESPN).

That’s about it for now. Next week will be even more robust as more teams clinch eligibility and I only have to project out one game.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Utah @ Colorado (FOX): It appears the Buffs are going to get away with it until further notice.
  • Texas @ Arkansas (ABC): This is an old Southwest Conference rivalry, though Texas doesn’t really want you to know this. Either way, I don’t think Arkansas has a chance to make this a rivalry again in this edition.
  • Clemson @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): If Clemson’s ballon was popped, then Pitt’s was destroyed by a large artillery shell. I suspect it’ll be easier for the Tigers to recover.
  • Tulane @ Navy (ESPN2): I think Tulane will just out-athelete Navy here.
  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): The only reason to watch this is to see football played at Wrigley.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): Hilltoppers all the way here.
  • Liberty @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)

12:45: Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (SEC): As much as I want to believe this overachieving ULM team could do this… I just can’t. Auburn isn’t this bad, right? Right?

1:00: Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (ESPN+)

1:30: Murray State @ Kentucky (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Mercer @ Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Michigan State @ Illinois (FS1): I’d prefer to bot think about this game. Illini.

3:00:

  • Syracuse @ California (The CW): We’re getting down to the short end of the season, and despite the abysmal luck Cal has had they have a very good chance to make a bowl game. It’d really help their cause to get this one. I imagine though no one over In Berkeley is super crazy about an 11:30 am local time kickoff, though.
  • Hawaii @ Utah State (Team1Sports)
  • Sam Houston State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (ABC): Possibly the biggest “not-actually-a-rivalry” rivalry in the SEC is still on the schedule. I think this is kind of a coin flip. I’m taking LSU but if Florida has their starting QB they have a puncher’s chance.
  • Virginia @ Notre Dame (NBC): Virginia is having a nice little season. The Irish will break up the party, at least this week.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (CBS): Penn State’s position as the Third Best Team In The Big Ten is surprisingly durable even after expansion. Suffice it to say, they won’t have any issues here.
  • Boston College @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): If you told me you’d have SMU leading the ACC in Mid-Novembet, I’d call you a liar. I’m still not convinced by them, and BC could well knock them off, but I’m going to stop short of saying that’ll happen.
  • Louisville @ Stanford (ACCN): Whereas I can guarantee the Cardinals will beat the Cardinal.
  • Oregon State @ Air Force (CBSS): Oregon State is really taking on the chin this year, and normally I’d be concerned about what the Falcons would throw at them. With this year’s edition of Air Force, not so much.
  • South Florida @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Nebraska @ Southern California (FOX): I am completely devoid of opinions about these teams. I mean, I definitely have thoughts about the programs but when it comes to the 2024 Cornhuskers and Trojans it’s just “file not found”.  They’re not good. They’re not awful. They’re just there. I’ll take the Huskers I guess.
  • Baylor @ West Virginia (ESPN2): See above. Is everyone outside of like BYU and K-State interchangeable in the Big 12 this season? It sure feels that way sometimes. I’ll take Baylor here.
  • James Madison @ Old Dominion (“Royal Rivalry”; ESPNU): JMU is a slight favorite, to which I would say: why? I’m definitely taking the Monarchs over the Dukes here.
  • Troy @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

4:15: Missouri @ South Carolina (SEC): Gamecocks, please save us from the idea of Mizzou being a there near the playoff. Please.

5:00: Arkansas State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

6:00: Rutgers @ Maryland (FS1): I feel as though the schedule is taunting me at this point. Surely there’s some payoff below this? Either way, I’m taking Rutgers here.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Kansas State (ESPN): Okay, okay, this is getting more interesting. To be clear, I like K-State here but ASU is at least capable of making this interesting.
  • Boise State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Here’s your low-key game of the day. The setting may not make it seem this way, but the Silicon Valley Spartans are one of the better teams left in Boise’s schedule. Can SJSU contain Jeanty? Eh, I doubt it. But it should be interesting to watch.
  • South Alabama @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Oregon @ Wisconsin (NBC): Ducks. Next!
  • Tennessee @ Georgia (ABC): And here we are. This is the game of the day. The thing is that I, at least, have come up with a fair bit of SEC fatigue. At the present moment, the SEC and Big Ten are demanding a gaurunteed four bids each into the playoff. This is ridiculous, obviously, but the problem is the fait accompli of it all, as barring a miracle this is going to happen anyway. Ah, well, go Vawls.
  • New Mexico State @ Texas A&M (SEC): I’m writing this from a Waymo and it’s late. Aggies! Er, the ones from Texas. Next!

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Iowa State (FOX): Ah, we’re right back to the dire part of the schedule. I’ve cooled off on the Cyclones, but I think they’re still good enough to win here. This may be sneaky fun game, though.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Memphis (ESPN2): Tigers. Next!
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ACCN): It’s been a lost season for the Heels, but they shouldn’t have a problem here.

9:30: Washington State @ New Mexico (FS1): Wazzu should continue to roll through the remaining portion of their MWC schedule.

10:15: Kansas @ Brigham Young (ESPN): Kansas appears to be back, but I’m not sure they’re going to be able to affect American’s most “getting away with it” team (now that Miami finally didn’t get away with it last week).

10:30: San Diego State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV rolls.

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 1

Welcome back to an annual tradition mine that’s now in its 25th year. Wow, that feels weird to say. I don’t have a lot of time to explain this at the moment, so let’s cut to the chase: I try to predict who will go where in college football’s postseason. I use SP+ to project each team’s record, and then I use those records to try to predict where these teams will go.

Expect a more detailed post next week. For now, the predictions are here. I’m two teams short currently, but that means I don’t need very many upsets to get enough teams.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Texas (ABC): Okay folks, I need to be level with you. We, well, I, intended to have the bowl predictions ready by now as well as the weekly update. Unfortunately, I have failed in the first part and almost failed in the second. So except for a few things, this is going to be a LIGHTNING ROUND. Texas!
  • Purdue @ Ohio State (FOX): Buckeyes!
  • Minnesota @ Rutgers (NBC): Gophers?
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): Okay, so, I have to talk about the alma mater, and it is our homecoming. Look, Miami is that much better this year and they got to this point undefeated. I have a good idea what to expect here, and I don’t think it’s that great for us. But, well, as last year’s game demonstrated, anything can happen. And I suspect we might need that.
  • Navy @ South Florida (ESPN2): Midshipmen!
  • West Virginia @ Cincinnati (FS1): Bearcats!
  • Syracuse @ Boston College (The CW): Orange!
  • Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPNU): Monroe?

1:00: Liberty @ Middle Tennessee State (CBSS): I wish I could believe the Blue Raiders could do this, but alas.

2:30:

  • Connecticut @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Marshall @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Mississippi (ABC): My perhaps most controversial take is that Ole Miss is the Penn State of the SEC, but, well prove me wrong? As much as it pains me, I have to think Georgia is going to win.
  • Michigan @ Indiana (CBS): #10Windiana?
  • Clemson @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Still going to pick Clemson here until proven otherwise.
  • Army @ North Texas (ESPN2): Army until proven otherwise.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (@Kansas City, MO; FS1): I have to go with the Cyclones here.
  • San Jose State @ Oregon State (The CW): Beavers!
  • Duke @ North Carolina State (ACCN): NC State!
  • Georgia State @ James Madison (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Colorado @ Texas Tech (FOX): Buffs?
  • Temple @ Tulane (ESPNU): Green Wave!
  • Kennesaw State @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

4:15: South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vandy? Oof, that’s weird to say.

4:30: Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Jax?

5:00: Arkansas State @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Mississippi State @ Tennessee (ESPN): Vols.
  • Central Florida @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Knights.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian (FS1):  TCU, probably.
  • Maryland @ Oregon (BTN): Ducks.

7:30:

  • Florida State @ Notre Dame (NBC): Irish.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (ABC): So this is really the game of the day, and I really believe that this will be worth it. It should be fun to watch, but I think that the night environment in Baton Rouge will allow LSU to prevail.

7:45: Oklahoma @ Missouri (SEC): Tigers?

8:00:

  • Nevada @ Boise State (FOX): Broncos. Well, Ashton Jeanty specifically.
  • Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): Pitt?
  • Washington @ Pennsylvania State (Peacock): Nittany Lions.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Hawaii (CBSS): Rebels.

9:45: Fresno State @ Air Force (FS1): Bulldogs.

10:15: Brigham Young @ Utah (“Holy War”; ESPN): It’s good to see this rivalry on again, but I have to think it’s BYU all the way here.

10:30: Utah State @ Washington State (The CW): Cougs.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Air Force @ Army (CBS): It’s hard to see anything other than Army turning Air Force into a fine mist in this one.
  • Duke @ Miami (ABC): Miami’s remaining schedule is somewhat light, and that begins here. While Cam Ward is something of a random number generator at quarterback, I just don’t think Duke has the talent to hang with the Canes.
  • Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): With the weird schedule today, this game is FOX’s Big Nude Noon Saturday game. (The reason is because there are 37 FBS teams on byes this week and FOX wanted to keep primetime open in case of a World Series Game 7.) And so, here it is. Ohio State has already been dinged once by Oregon this season, and Penn State enters with no losses. But has James Franklin ever won this game? A win fast-tracks a Penn State showdown with those Ducks, but back when the the B1G had divisions Penn State had practically cemented the title of the “3rd best team in the East” because they never got over the hump. It’s also the stated position of this here website that James Franklin is destined to be the first head coach to ever lose a home playoff game, so that more or less means a loss here or in the B1G Championship. I suspect it’ll come here.
  • Mississippi @ Arkansas (ESPN): Arkansas isn’t good, but I’m going to stick my neck out here and say that they’ll do to Ole Miss what they did to Tennessee, up to and including winning the game.
  • Memphis @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN2): It’s been tough for the Roadrunners this year, I see the Tigers taking care of business.
  • Minnesota @ Illinois (FS1): I don’t see how the Gophers will score any points here.
  • Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (The CW): Kyle McCord, whom I’d previously championed as the best quarterback in the ACC, had a nightmare start against Pitt last week. That said, VPI figures to present less of a challenge. I like the Orange here.
  • Northwestern @ Purdue (BTN): This is a bit of a B1G Futility Bowl. Uh, Northwestern, maybe? I guess? (Boy howdy, though, SZD’s prediction that Wazzu would have more fun this year than Purdue seems extremely prescient at this point.)
  • Toledo @ Eastern Michigan (ESPNU): All of the MAC games seem like coin flips this season, so I went and found a Michigan state quarter in my loose change. Tails it’s EMU, heads it’s Toledo.
  • Stanford @ North Carolina State (ACCN): I don’t really have the energy anymore to make “lol this is an ACC game” jokes anymore. And NC State is going to win.
  • Buffalo @ Akron (CBSS): I couldn’t find any New York or Ohio quarters earlier when I was looking, so we’ll actually try to make a prediction here. Ah, okay, Akron is terrible. Bulls all the way then.
  • Maine @ Oklahoma (ESPN+)

12:45: Vanderbilt @ Auburn (SEC): It is 2022. Diego Pavia is handily beating a Hugh Freeze football team. It is 2023. Diego Pavia is handily beating a Hugh Freeze football team. It is 2024. Diego Pavia is…

2:30:

  • Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • Tulsa @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” @ Jacksonville, FL; ABC): There’s no way Florida is going to win this game, full stop. The real question is probably whether Florida’s vaunted(?) no-shutout streak will live through it.
  • Oregon @ Michigan (CBS): It’s a helmet game, and that’s why it’s on CBS. But otherwise, yeah, Michigan just, like, doesn’t have an offense. In a year where Iowa (Iowa!) is putting up numbers what they’re doing in Ann Arbor is just kind of embarrassing. So, yeah, Ducks all the way here.
  • Kansas State @ Houston (FOX/FS2): I don’t think the Cougs can hang with this K-State team.
  • Texas Tech @ Iowa State (ESPN): The Red Raiders have had kind of a weird year, but I don’t see them disrupting what is going on up in Ames.
  • Arizona @ Central Florida (FS1): Zona comes into Orland on 4 straight losses. UCF has 5 straight. Something’s gotta give, and I suspect it’ll be UCF to beat the streak.
  • Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (FS2/FOX): Speaking of Big 12 teams on 5 game losing streaks, this just seems like something of a lost season for the Pokes. I don’t think it’ll get  better here.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska’s lost two straight to Indiana and Ohio State, which is understandable. They really should be favored against the Bruins at home.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): This may be a fantastic Saturday to go do something else, y’all. Maybe go outside if the weather is good where you are, after all, it’s already November and winter is coming. I certainly can’t recommend watching this. I’ll go with UTEP because they seem to be able to kinda score points.
  • North Carolina @ Florida State (ACCN): Is UNC’s defense bad enough that FSU has a chance here? Nah.
  • Indiana @ Michigan State (Peacock): The Spartans couldn’t even beat the worst Michigan team in years, so I don’t like their odds against these Hoosiers, especially considering the potential hangover effect from last week.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Marshall (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Navy @ Rice (ESPN2): Okay, so Notre Dame was just better than Navy, but this should be a return to form for the Midshipmen.
  • Wyoming @ New Mexico (truTV): Seriously some of these games dire, y’all. Lobos all the way here?
  • Coastal Carolina @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:15: Massachusetts @ Mississippi State (SEC): UMass is inept, yes. Mississippi State is terrible, yes. But I just can’t see any way Miss State loses this game. I just can’t.

7:00: Hawaii @ Fresno State (Team1Sports)

7:30:

  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (NBC): Wisconsin seems to be improving, but I’m not sure how they’re beating an Iowa that can actually score points.
  • Texas A&M @ South Carolina (ABC): TAMU is 5-0 in the SEC and Elko just cut a promo about how he’s there to coach football and not play politics. South Carolina is the SEC’s proverbial comedic rake stepping team, and this sure seems like the Gamecocks’ time.
  • Louisville @ Clemson (ESPN): Louisville is the best team Clemson has played since Week 1, but since then the Tigers have quietly found their footing on offense and, well, Louisville’s defense ain’t Georgia’s.
  • Southern California @ Washington (BTN): Can we move this game to a 10:00pm Eastern kickoff and get some classic Pac-12 After Dark? How can we make this happen? That said, I kind of like the Huskies here, mostly just to see how Lincoln Riley lashes out at the media after losing again.
  • Georgia Southern @ South Alabama (ESPNU): South Al is definitely the favorite here, but this may well be the late game of the day. Definitely take a peek at this one.

7:45: Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): With their loss to Auburn last week, I don’t think we need to pretend Kentucky has a chance in this game.

8:00:

  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (“The Revivalry”; ESPN2): These teams look pretty even on a baseline level, but Baylor still seems to have some offensive juice that the Horned Frogs just don’t possess.
  • Pittsburgh @ Southern Methodist (ACCN): Naturally, this game is going to be pretty important to the ACC standings. That said, I just don’t really believe in SMU. I think this will be straightforward for Pitt.
  • Colorado State @ Nevada (CBSS): I still think Colorado State is kinda bad, but they might be the second best team in the Mountain West this year?