They’re here!

This week I was only 7 teams short thanks to some upsets, but regardless we’re going to need to a lot more to get to the number we need.

As promised, here’s some insight into my thought process:

• I always start with the CFP and the New Year’s Six bowl games. I expect Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Florida State, and Texas to win out. This means someone will be left out. It may be ideal for Texas to get Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to see if they can avenge their Red River loss, otherwise I think Oregon will have an edge over them.
• The Group of Five New Year’s Six team is much less certain this year. Tulane may have the insight track to make it two in a row after Air Force has collapsed the past two weeks.
• Thanks to the timing of their losses, Missouri has likely jumped Ole Miss for the third New Year’s Six spot from the SEC.
• The ESPN Events bowl situation remains a mess for folks like me, an issue that makes trying to predict basically all of the pre-Christmas bowl games very difficult.
• While James Madison will likely get into a bowl game regardless of what happens with their waiver. That said, the waiver may affect what game they go to, since nominally every spot is supposed to be filled before the backup pool of teams is used. This may or may not matter since every Sun Belt bowl game is owned by ESPN Events.