Monthly Archives: November 2018

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Florida State (“The Sunshine Showdown”; ABC): Florida State had 36 straight seasons where they made a bowl game. I’m using the past tense for a reason.
  • Michigan @ Ohio State (“The Game”; FOX): So outside of fans of these other games, this will be the game drawing the most attention. And that’s fair. Michigan has lost six straight and the game is in Columbus. When I really look at it, though, I see a team struggling mightily in most of their last several games in Ohio State, and meanwhile for the most part Michigan has cruised through the season. This is not indicative of a situation that favors the Buckets, at least to me. In addition, the Buckeyes have a host of struggles: their offense is one-dimensional and their defense is prone to collapses. I favor the Wolverines here.
  • Syracuse @ Boston College (ESPN): BC seems to have let their 27-7 loss to Clemson get to them, losing 22-21 to FSU last weekend. The Orange, though, got blown away by Notre Dame last weekend. I see these teams as about equal and so it’s a question of which team will recover better from their blowout loss to a superior team. I’m actually going to favor the Orange and their offense a bit.
  • Purdue @ Indiana (ESPN2): The Old Oaken Bucket is at stake here, as well as a bowl bid for either side. I still like the Boilermakers for whatever reason, so I’ll go with them.
  • Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; FS1): Another bowl bid is at stake here. TTU is backsliding into the end  of the season and Baylor has looked moderately better, so I’ll go with them.
  • Navy @ Tulane (ESPNU): Navy’s defense has just been bad. Tulane should get bowl eligible here.
  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”; SEC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): How did things get so bad at Western Kentucky? LaTech should roll.

12:20: North Carolina State @ North Carolina (Raycom): I almost have to think that UNC will be happy to just get this season over with.

12:30: Wake Forest @ Duke (ACC/RSN): Wake has shown a spark at certain times this season, but Duke seems to be a tier above them right now.

3:00: Stanford @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): Stanford scuffled in some of their late-season big tests, and UCLA has come in strong in the second half and upset USC last weekend. I’m still going with the Cardinal here, though, they’re a better all-around team than UCLA at this point.

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Alabama (“The Iron Bowl”; CBS): We can hope against hope that Auburn will keep this interesting, but interesting against this year’s version of Bama could almost be defined as just covering the three-score spread.
  • Maryland @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): The Terps could get bowl eligible with a win, but probably to the relief of everyone involved, they probably won’t.
  • Pittsburgh @ Miami (ESPN): It figures that Pitt is going to put the Canes out of their misery in this game.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): With an upset here, Minnesota can row that boat to a bowl game! Unfortunately, even that modest goal appears unlikely since it involves beating Wisconsin at home.
  • Arizona State @ Arizona (“The Duel in the Desert”; FS1): Boy howdy, a lot of bowl bids on the line today, eh? And good luck trying to decipher how these teams are doing by looking at common opponents, so this is essentially a coinflip. I’ll buck my own bowl predictions and say Arizona gets to 6-6. Congrats, Wildcats!
  • Temple @ Connecticut (ESPNU): Temple.
  • Illinois @ Northwestern (BTN): As a reminder, Northwestern is Big Ten West Champions and Illinois is… really bad. I’ll take the Wildcats.
  • Southern Methodist @ Tulsa (CBSS): This game looks grim. In this timeslot, I’d see if anything weird happens in the Iron Bowl, and then when nothing weird happens, switch over to Minnesota at Wisconsin or ASU at Arizona. This is the bottom of the barrel, so to speak. I’ll take, uh, SMU?

4:00:

  • Rutgers @ Michigan State (FOX): Speaking of grim, hoo boy, yeah Sparty should have this one.
  • Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (SEC): THE BATTLE FOR BOWL ELIGIBILITY CONTINUES. Tennessee pretty much always wins this game, so I’ll go with them.

7:00:

  • South Carolina @ Clemson (“The Palmetto Bowl”; ESPN): While not quite as Death Star-esque as Alabama against Auburn, yeah, I’m not giving the Gamecocks much of a chance here.
  • Kentucky @ Louisville (“The Commonwealth Cup”; ESPN2): It should say “The Bourbon Bowl” over there, but, alas, it doesn’t. Either way, Kentucky should roll against a Louisville that will just be glad to get out of there.
  • Kansas State @ Iowa State (“Farmageddon”; FS1): I feel obligated to point out again that K-State will get bowl eligible if they win. As for the next statement, I feel bad about saying it, but it’s my honest gut feeling. I think they will lose, and it will be Bill Synder’s last game.
  • San Jose State @ Fresno State (ESPNU): Fresno.
  • Colorado @ California (Pac12): Cal.

7:30: Louisiana State @ Texas A&M (SEC): A&M is ranked at 7-4 because beat… (checks) Kentucky! Yeah, LSU’s got this.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian (FOX): SO MUCH FIVE AND SIX. TCU is fighting for bowl eligibility here, but that doesn’t figure to matter against a feisty and rejuvenated Oklahoma State.
  • Notre Dame @ Southern California (ABC): USC could also get bowl eligible, but, uh… yeah, they won’t.

9:30: Nevada @ Nevada-Las Vegas (“Battle for Nevada”; CBSS): UNLV has been lost in the desert for most of this season, and that doesn’t figure to change against a Nevada team that’s won four straight against superior competition.

10:00: Brigham Young @ Utah (“The Holy War”; FS1): BYU’s wins over Wisconsin and Arizona continue to look stranger as time goes on. The Utes should roll.

10:15: Utah State @ Boise State (ESPN): Well hey there, some stakes! That is to say, the Mountain West Mountain division! Unfortunately, Boise doesn’t figure to be as snowy as Pullman was last night, but nonetheless this is a big game, but the blue turf figures to give the Broncos a slight advantage.

10:30: Hawaii @ San Diego State (ESPNU): And finally, and perhaps appropriately, we close out the last full weekend of the college football season with a Hawaii game. Both teams here have clinched bowl games, and I figure the Aztecs will comfortably run all over the Rainbow Warriors. Nonetheless, despite currently being on Eastern Time, I will try my damndest to make it to the end. Sure, we’ve got Championship Week next week, and bowl games not long after, but it’s appropriate the true weekend both fall on Thanksgiving and also stuff us full of delicious college football. 14 games yesterday, 33 games today. There’s nothing like it, and that’s why I do this year after year. Shout out to everyone who actually reads this, all three of you. Thanks.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday

3:30: Colorado State @ Air Force (CBSS): There is a trophy involved here! Outside of that, it’s been a rough year for both of these teams, neither of which is going to go to a bowl. With the Rams losers of four straight and the game at Air Force, I’m going with the Falcons.

7:30: Mississippi State @ Mississippi (“The Egg Bowl”; ESPN): Here’s a game that will definitely feature some emotion. For Ole Miss, this is their bowl game: they’re on a bowl ban to try to appease the NCAA gods. For Miss State, they still have an outside chance at a New Year’s Six bowl (yes, folks, 4-loss teams are in contention for prestigious bowl games) and would pay dearly if they mess this up. The main problem for the Rebels, though, is their completely awful defense, and while their offense is actually decent it’ll be hard for them to keep up with what their defense is allowing.

Friday

Noon:

  • Nebraska @ Iowa (FOX): Iowa was on the skids, but fortunately the Big Ten has teams like Illinois and Rutgers to act as cures for what ails you, as the Hawkeyes annihilated Illinois to the tune of 63-0 last week. Meanwhile, the Huskers doing nicely for themselves as well, as winners of four of their last five, including their own 54-35 pasting of Illinois and a, uh, very Big Ten 9-6 win over Michigan State. That said, Iowa is still the favorite here.
  • Houston @ Memphis (ABC): The winner here earns the right to lose to UCF next week, so a fair bit is on the line. Memphis comes into this game pretty hot, but Houston will get future first round pick Ed Oliver back for this game. Honestly, this game figures to be fun and may be your best bet in this timeslot. I’m picking Memphis, but I could go either way.
  • Texas @ Kansas (FS1): If Texas doesn’t screw this up, they’ll be in the revived Big 12 title game.
  • Buffalo @ Bowling Green (ESPNU): After getting blown out by Ohio last week, the Bulls can still clinch a spot in the MAC title game by beating a very beatable Bowling Green, which I think they will.
  • Akron @ Ohio (CBSS): Ohio can clinch a spot in the MAC title game by beating a very beatable Akron team and hoping that Buffalo blows it against Bowling Green. I rate their chances for the former a lot higher than the latter.

2:30: Arkansas @ Missouri (CBS): Back in Alabama, we had a saying: “Thank God for Mississippi”. The Razorbacks should say the same, because the Ole Miss Rebels are the only reason they’re not the proprietors of the worst defense in the SEC. This is not a good sign when you’re playing one of the better offenses in the SEC, and boy howdy are the Tigers rolling right now. I’ll take them.

3:30:

  • Virginia @ Virginia Tech (ABC): You have heard this already, but I will say it again: Virginia has lost 14 straight to Virginia Tech. Plus, they come in after a completely baffling loss to Georgia Tech. (Seriously, I’m a GT fan. I have no idea how we won.) That said, the Hokies have lost four straight, and for the most part, they’ve lost them bad, most recently losing to a bad Miami offense 38-14. Against the worst defense Bud Foster has ever fielded, this has to be the year for the Cavs, right?
  • East Carolina @ Cincinnati (CBSS): Cincy’s good, but UCF is mostly in a different class than the rest of the ACC. Fortunately for the Bearcats, they’re also a tier above ECU.

4:00:

  • Central Florida @ South Florida (“War on I-4”; ESPN): Back in October, this game still looked pretty enticing, but USF has lost four straight to all the other good/decent AAC teams and, as noted above, UCF is just better than everyone else.
  • Oregon @ Oregon State (“The Civil War”; FS1): The weather for this game should be about 50 degrees and raining, in other words, what the weather for this game should look like. Unfortunately, that may be all that goes right for Oregon State. Both these programs are rebuilding right now, but the Ducks appear to have had a pretty good head start.

8:00: Oklahoma @ West Virginia (ESPN): This game and next are the most interesting games of the day for me, and I kind of love that they’re half an hour apart. Oklahoma’s all-everything offense is definitely favored in my mind, and they’re my pick. But we’re also talking about Morgantown, at night, in the cold. Couches beware.

8:30: Washington @ Washington State (“The Apple Cup”; FOX): Speaking of fanbases that would probably show up in a top-ten list titled “Most Likely to Set Furniture on Fire”, let’s go to Pullman. The sun will set just before kickoff, and it will be cold and rainy. Will that, and the UDub defense, be enough to upend Wazzu’s dream season? I’d like to think it won’t be, because these Cougars are just so much dang fun to watch. But Washington can still book a trip to Santa Clara next weekend with a win. I ultimately think Wazzu’s offense will be enough to prevail, but this game should be worth watching.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Maryland (ABC): We largely determined that last week was trash. But what I failed to take into account was that, well, this week would probably be worse. That’s okay, though; we’ll get through this together. Also, I’ll take the Buckeyes here.
  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (FOX): Here are the teams that I figure are good this year: Alabama, Clemson, and… after that I’ll take Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, and UCF. Then it starts to get dicey. As has been pointed out elsewhere, there are an unusually few number of 2-loss teams for this late in the season (hence my own angst about the New Year’s Six make-up for those bowl games). At any rate, the Cornhuskers are on something of a late season roll. Even though they’re not going bowling at 3-7, those three wins have come in their last four games, and that one loss was a narrow 5 point loss to Ohio State. I guess what I’m trying to say is that at this point I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Sparty, but I don’t really expect them to.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Meanwhile, I can’t recommend Arkansas at all.
  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (FS1): It’s a down year for TCU, which means Baylor, I guess?
  • South Florida @ Temple (ESPNEWS): USF has lost three straight, and… let’s just go ahead and make it four.
  • Middle Tennessee @ Kentucky (SECA): Hard to see MTSU scoring, well, at all really.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Last week’s loss to Michigan was definite an improvement in adjectives for Rutgers. Instead of words like “vaporized” or “obliterated” being thrown around, they were instead just plain ol’ blown out. I expect more of the same here.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (BTN): Well, Northwestern already has the Big Ten West sown up, so this game is pretty much just for pride and another NU victory, I guess.
  • Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (ACC/RSN): Pitt.

12:20: North Carolina State @ Louisville (Raycom): NC State.

1:30: Utah @ Colorado (Pac12): The Pac-12 is attempting to nurse this into a rivalry, but we’ll see if it actually happens. These schools do have a touch of pre-Pac-12 history, but not much. I’ll go ahead and take Utah here.

2:30: Syracuse vs. Notre Dame (@New York, NY; NBC): Most people are not Notre Dame fans and will be inclined to root against them away. And if you are not so inclined, you may well be once you see their uniforms on Saturday. Unfortunately for all of us who are not Notre Dame fans, they will probably still win.

3:30:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Mike Gundy, two things. For starters, Millennials are so last generation. Today’s college students aren’t Millennials. Two, we’ll see how’s a bunch of snowflakes after you get blown out by West Virginia.
  • Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Well, the primary reason for this game is usually to see the two teams wearing color uniforms and in even years the perfect turf and scenery of the Rose Bowl. But the fires in California will affect this game and The Big Game. Not having the pristine pictures we’re used to is perhaps the most trivial effect of the fires but also potentially a potent reminder of the tragedy. The Red Cross and other California-specific aid organizations will prefer you donate cash instead of items, since exactly what the survivors will need is not a constant and coordinating physical goods just adds to the logistical nightmare.
    To get back to football for a second, USC is scuffling, suffice it to say. And dang, I’ve just about got Clay Helton’s name memorized. That said, still hard to see this UCLA team beating them.
  • Missouri @ Tennessee (CBS): This is sure is a game CBS picked for their game of the week. Mizzou.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Neither of these teams is good at this point, but VPI’s defense is just a disaster.
  • Boston College @ Florida State (ESPN2): BC should get their “dude!” mojo back against FSU.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas State (ESPNU): I perhaps wrote K-State off too early last week against KU, but I still can’t see them beating Texas Tech.
  • Illinois @ Iowa (BTN): The Big Ten really needs a traveling trophy for all the schools whose names start with ‘I’. Just sayin’. Anyway, also just sayin’ Iowa’s got this.
  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue hasn’t exactly followed up on the promise from the Ohio State game, and of course everyone is connecting their head coach to the now vacant Louisville job. Wisconsin is having a bit of a down year themselves but I still see them desperately wanting the service.
  • Tulsa @ Navy (CBSS): Navy’s just bad this year, taking Tulsa.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Southern Mississippi (Stadium): USM.
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): I didn’t really see it coming. That is, Tech being 6-4. UVA is better than anyone expected, and I definitely feel pretty good about having win number six. The defense still is vulnerable to passing plays. It feels like when get someone to third and long opposing offensive coordinators are thinking “got ’em right where we want ’em, boys!” Otherwise, I don’t have a lot to say about this one.

4:00:

  • Indiana @ Michigan (FS1): Indiana, as it turns out, is very much having an Indiana kind of season. Basically, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Wolverines.
  • Air Force @ Wyoming (ESPNEWS): This game sure seemed a lot more interesting back in August. Going with Wyoming.
  • Massachusetts @ Georgia (SEC): UGA.

4:30: Oregon State @ Washington (Pac12): It’s been a disappointing year for the Pac-12, but not so much so that UDub will blow this heading into the Apple Cup.

7:00:

  • Duke @ Clemson (ESPN): Duke is good, but it won’t matter against Clemson.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Texas A&M (ESPN2): GO BLAZERS!
  • Connecticut @ East Carolina (CBSS): I have no idea, and no inclination to even figure out which of these teams is less worse. Let’s go with UConn then.

7:30:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma (FOX): I know why this game is on big FOX, but I that doesn’t mean I have to accept it. OU rolls.
  • Rice @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.
  • Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Here’s some bottom barrel SEC action that may be more compelling than anything else on at this time other than UAB-TAMU. Yeah. Vandy?
  • Texas-El Paso @ Western Kentucky (beIN): WKU.

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Central Florida (ABC): This is definitely one of the better games of the day, and Orlando is definitely deserving of Gameday this week. That said, does Cincy have much of a chance? Sure, they’re definitely improved this year and they’re not bad or anything. UCF also isn’t nearly as invincible as they were last year. That said, though, it’s hard to see a “path to victory” (election jokes!) for Cincy.
  • Iowa State @ Texas (LHN): I listed this because, despite the fact that you, the reader, do not get the Longhorn Network it’s one of the better games of the day. And boy how the Big 12 really needs Texas to win this one. Just sayin’.

10:15: New Mexico State @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): BYU?

10:30:

  • Arizona @ Washington State (ESPN): Anything can happen in the Pac-12 these days, but I will be sticking with Wazzu until further notice.
  • San Diego State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Here’s another actually pretty good game! Sure, it could well be a defensive slog, but that shouldn’t deter you from watching. Both of these teams are actually reasonably good. I’ll take Fresno here, though.
  • Arizona State @ Oregon (Pac12): And here’s another game you’ll want to watch on a network you probably don’t get. Oregon has been a pleasant surprise this year, even if they’ve struggled at times, but ASU and HERM feel almost out-of-nowhere. Ducks at home, sure, but I’ll be watching this one.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 3

They’re real and they’re spectacular.

Anyway, we are currently at 65 teams, so we’re probably going to get the number of bowl eligible teams we need. Huzzah! I should probably start going into more detail in addition to just posting the link, so let’s do this newspaper columnist style:

  • If Oklahoma winds up beating West Virginia twice, I think that will be enough to get them into the playoff over Michigan. If I had to guess, the committee will be looking for reasons to include a Michigan team that lost to Notre Dame rather than exclude them, unless, somewhat ironically, Notre Dame ceases to be undefeated.
  • That said, putting four SEC teams into the playoff-controlled bowls really stresses the system. I ran out of teams even before getting out the SEC Tier 2 bowl quagmire, so guessing which teams will get at-large to those bowls is a lot of work.
  • That said, I am here for a West Virginia-LSU Sugar Bowl when and if that actually happens.
  • I’m pretty excited Georgia Tech was able to get bowl eligible, but I’m less sure about where we’ll actually go. It looks pretty likely only Clemson will get into the CFP-bowls (NC State had a great shot until they lost to Wake Forest last weekend) from the ACC, so that probably means Tech will miss out, but it’s currently hard to say. In the next couple of weeks bowl rumors should start to float around, and I’ll have a better idea.
  • I feel a bit bad that the two best teams from the Mountain West this year, Utah State and Fresno State, will probably play each other on December 1st and then have a bowl game two weeks later.
  • That said, I am also here for HERM versus Utah State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
  • I like to think that teams with winning records will get picked before 6-6 teams, so I wound up putting Miami in the Quick Lane Bowl. It’s a shame that the Miami in Ohio isn’t going to a bowl this year, because otherwise we’d have a decent shot at a Miami-Miami game for only the fourth time ever.
  • Another thing I feel a bit bad about: “Congratulations on your under-the-radar great season, Cincy! Now watch as everyone just talks about Lane Kiffin the whole time because you’ll get to play them in the Gasparilla Bowl.”

And there we are for now. I’m traveling next Sunday into Monday, so I have no idea when next week’s predictions will be posted.