Onward, to the Land of Meat and Cheese, aka, the Midwest!
Michigan (1 legit, 0 FCS): N-Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force. The netural-site game against Florida is intriguing for reasons probably best saved for when we get to the Gators, so for now let’s wonder why we didn’t get a 10th anniversary Michigan-Appalachian State matchup. They’re not even FCS anymore!
Ohio State (1, 0): Oklahoma, Army, Nevada-Las Vegas. The return game for Ohio State-Oklahoma almost got the Buckeyes to #1 here, but I liked Michigan’s other opponents better.
Nebraska (1, 0): Arkansas State, @Oregon, Northern Illinois. Nebraska at Oregon is precisely the kind of inter-sectional matchup we like here at asimsports. More of this, please!
Maryland (1, 1): @Texas, Towson, Central Florida. Okay, Maryland-Texas lacks some of the, well, cachet of Nebraska-Oregon, but we’ll still take it.
Michigan State (1, 0): Bowling Green State, Western Michigan, Notre Dame. “Wait”, you’re saying, “why is Sparty ranked below Maryland even though they don’t play an FCS team?” This was a call on my part, knowing that Michigan State plays Notre Dame basically every year, so it’s not as interesting as Maryland’s game at Texas.
Purdue (0.75, 0): N-Louisville, Ohio, @Missouri. There’s new management in West Lafeyette, but that doesn’t figure to help against the Cardinals. The Boilermakers are in Year 1 of a rebuild and are half-liable to go 0-3 against this slate.
Rutgers (0.75, 1): Washington, Eastern Michigan, Morgan State. Rutgers was probably one of the worst major conference teams in the history of college football last year, and starting the year off with a game against UDub doesn’t figure to help them get pointed in the correct direction. Kudos for scheduling it, though.
Pennsylvania State (0.5, 0): Akron, Pittsburgh, Georgia State. Penn State should play Pitt every year, which makes any time it does happen special. Not much else going on here, though.
Northwestern (0.25, 0): Nevada, @Duke, Bowling Green State. I feel like there’s something snarky to say about Northwestern at Duke, but I can’t think of it right now. Luckily, I’ve got a few weeks before they actually play.
Minnesota (0, 0): Buffalo, @Oregon State, Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota at Oregon State seems random, but again, we’ll take it.
Wisconsin (0, 0): Utah State, Florida Atlantic, @Brigham Young. It was a real debate between whether to put Minnesota or Wisconsin at #10, but ultimately BYU suffers again for not being in the Pac-12, which you know has to annoy them.
Indiana (0, 0): @Virginia, Florida International, Georgia Southern. But if it’s any consolation BYU fans, you still managed to get ranked above a schedule that includes a trip to a major conference team.
Illinois (0, 0): Ball State, Western Kentucky, @South Florida. Illinois will do well to win two of these, or heck maybe one depending if this is one of those years Ball State isn’t horrible.
Iowa (0, 0): Wyoming, @Iowa State, North Texas. Everything that you need to know about modern day Iowa football is by far the most interesting NFL prospect on their out-of-conference schedule is Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, which is also something you can tell your friends to sound really smart, especially if Wyoming wins.
And that’s that. Up next, the conference of the land Americans love to argue about whether or is the Midwest, the Big 12!
Let’s start off our review with the Atlantic Coast Conference. An explanation of the rating system can be found here. FCS teams are indicated by italics. “N-” prefixes indicate neutral site games.
Florida State (2 legit, 1 FCS): N-Alabama, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware State, @Florida. The ACC will get off to a crackin’ start on Labor Day weekend, and it’s not a coincidence the two teams that will play in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium are at the top of this list. (Which reminds me: is there a funny name out there for the new Dome? In Dallas there’s Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace, so what would the Atlanta equivalent be? Arthur Blank’s Pan-Universal Fun Dome? I’m open to suggestions.) Of course, don’t let the realization that it’s entirely possibly FSU and Bama will meet again, probable even, in the college football playoff. Especially not that they could meet in the very same stadium again.
Georgia Tech (1.75, 1): N-Tennessee, Jacksonville State, @Central Florida, Georgia. Us Tech-types have been aching for years to get into the party that takes place every Labor Day weekend a mile from campus, so the the chance to make it four straight against the SEC East is just gravy. Meanwhile, I’m as against it as anyone else, but I will at least note that when you see major conference teams play games at Group of Five stadiums it’s usually as part of a multi-game deal or the major conference team is saving money. Hopefully I remember this when the return game comes around in 2020.
Pittsburgh (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Pennsylvania State, Oklahoma State, Rice. This is an OOC schedule that checks all the boxes. 1) Does it involve a non-mandatory rivalry? Check. 2) Does it feature a geographically distant major-conference foe? Check.
Clemson (1, 1): Kent State, Auburn, Citadel, @South Carolina. Clemson’s fate this season has vastly more to do with their in-conference games with Florida State and Louisville, but nonetheless the return game of this Tigers-Tigers series is rife with implication, provided Auburn is any good. Also, it gives us something to look forward to in the desert that usually is Week 2.
Boston College (1, 0): @Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, @Connecticut. Okay, one road game against a G5 opponent I can understand, but how do you manage to get two on the schedule at once? Nonetheless, the Golden Eagles get credit for ducking a FCS opponent this year, depending on how you feel about UConn. (Which for most, I suspect, is nothing.)
Syracuse (1, 1): Central Connecticut State, Middle Tennessee State, Central Michigan, @Louisiana State. So this year I switched the spreadsheet to a system that allowed the “legit” points to be grabbed from another sheet and automatically calculated. There were some occasional mistakes, but this is a good example of one I didn’t catch until I was putting the rankings together. “Yeah, let’s see, FCS, MTSU, Central Mich… oh right, LSU, yeah that should probably rate higher than 13th.”
North Carolina State (1, 1): N-South Carolina, Marshall, Furman, @Notre Dame. It’s hard to know what to do with Notre Dame on an ACC team’s schedule these days, since it’s not really an organic matchup. So that’s how you get a game at LSU counting better than a game at Notre Dame and a neutral site game against South Carolina.
Miami (1, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Arkansas State, Toledo, Notre Dame. Miami continues its tour of random G5 campuses, this team flying to… whereever you fly to get to Jonesboro, Arkansas. Memphis, I guess? Anyway, I decided to stay consistent with my earlier assessment of the Notre Dame thing.
North Carolina (1, 1): California, @Old Dominion, Notre Dame, Western Carolina. Okay, seriously, what is up ACC teams? Did everyone get together at Media Days a few years ago and decide “yes, let’s schedule all of our road games against non-major opponents in the same season“? That’s four out of nine so far!
Wake Forest (1, 1): Presbyterian, Utah State, @Appalachian State, @Notre Dame. 5 out of 10!
Duke (0.5, 1): North Carolina Central, Northwestern, Baylor, @Army. 6 out of 11!
Virginia (0.5, 1): William & Mary, Indiana, Connecticut, @Boise State. 7 out of 12!
Virginia Tech (0.5, 1): N-West Virginia, Delaware, @East Carolina, Old Dominion. 8 out of 13!
Louisville (0, 1): N-Purdue, Kent State, Murray State, @Kentucky. Nine out of… oh, right, Kentucky’s in the SEC.
Click below to see my closing thoughts.
In the hopes you don’t see 9-14 as a cop out, here’s some serious commentary:
That Cal game is all about the return trip.
Hot take: Wake will either got 4-0 against that slate or 1-3, with no in between.
The @Army game seriously isn’t some sort of Mike Krzyzewksi thing, right?
If I were a UVA fan I’d be seriously worried about going 0-4 against that slate. Oof.
asimsports wholeheartedly endorses non-conference games against West Virginia, but, uh, anywhere but NFL stadiums, and especially anywhere but Fedex Field.
Okay, so the Kentucky joke was a bit of a cheap shot, especially considering who won last year. Playing a neutral site game against, uh, Purdue is, um, interesting?
Let’s start with the usual explanation. Since 2008, each summer, my brother and I surveil all of the Power 5 teams and selected Group of 5 teams and assign each a “legit” rating. This rating is on a scale of 0 to 1 in increments of .25. The rating system is extremely subjective: a third party reading would probably reveal our biases. However, we don’t declare the work done until we assign a rating for 72 different teams and agree on it. An explanation of the ratings:
0: these are generally teams that aren’t and haven’t been very historically good, or otherwise do not generate any excitement when you see them on your non-conference schedule. Examples include Iowa State and Rutgers. This year 24 of the rated teams earned zeroes. It’s worth noting we didn’t use this rating until 2012. Last year 19 teams were rated at this level.
0.25: these are teams that might generate some excitement if you’re college football geek, or we think they may be interesting this year. Examples this year include Washington State and Minnesota. We rated 10 teams at 0.25 this year, down from 11 last year.
0.5: This is the passing lane of ratings, featuring either teams on an upswing (like Pittsburgh and Utah) or teams on a downswing (like Mississippi and Michigan State). Boise State also appears here, as our highest rated Group of 5 team. 10 teams were also rated at this level, down from 14 last year.
0.75: this is usually the domain of power conference teams that have stagnated that are still interesting, or teams that we’d probably like to see play but feel like would be underrated by the community at large. Teams of this stripe include Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Full disclosure: this is also where we put Georgia Tech, because as noted above these ratings are subjective. We also rated 10 teams at 0.75 this year, up from 7 last year.
1: These are the blue-bloods impervious to changes, or teams that have been really good to national title contenders over the past 10 years or so. Essentially, this is Notre Dame: it doesn’t matter if they went 4-8 last year, they’re still a 1 because they’re Notre freakin’ Dame. There were 18 of them this year, down from 21 last year.
As usual, we list all the teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, California-Los Angeles, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Louisiana State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, and Texas. The teams in bold have been 1’s every year we’ve done the rankings. Yes, even Notre Dame got pipped from the 1’s one time, pulling a 0.75 in 2012, but I don’t think what I wrote above is a contradiction.
Other than Notre Dame, the other non-Power 5 teams to earn ratings this year were Boise State (0.5) and Houston (0.25). The average overall rating was 0.4583.
With that, let’s close with the rating of each conference:
Southeastern: 0.536
Pac-12: 0.521
Atlantic Coast: 0.482
Big 12: 0.472
Big Ten: 0.429
I guess we don’t go in for gray skies and the Iowas of the world. At any rate, the first up will be the home of the defending national champions and the banes of the SEC East: the ACC.
Okay folks, it’s time to run down the results and implications from the June international window. The September window is fast approaching, so we’ll break down things there while we’re at it.
First, let’s welcome Iran to the stage for their second straight appearance. Next, let’s say adios to the following countries: Iraq, Vanuatu, Samoa, Papua New Guinea, Tahiti, Luxenbourg, San Marino, Malta, Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Finland, and Kosovo.
As usual, let’s go in alphabetical order. Asia, you’re up!
AFC The Asian Football Confederation is currently contesting its third round of qualification. There’s two groups of six teams. In Group A, Iran qualified directly for the World Cup finals with a 2-0 win over Uzbekistan. Elsewhere, China drew Syria and South Korea suffered an upset with a loss to Qatar in Doha. Nonetheless, with two matches to go, the group seems to be setting up for a do-or-die match in Tashkent for Uzbekistan and South Korea on September 5th. Right now, the Koreans are a point ahead in the standings, but a lot can change. For the penultimate match, Korea plays Iran at home, a game that could go any way. The Koreans should well in at home, and some of it will depend on who Iran brings on the road, since they’ve already qualified. Uzbekistan has to go on the road, but they get to play China, a decidedly easier opponent. Again, I expect the scenarios going into the at Tashkent to be very interesting, and I may update if the situation warrants. The outcomes there are either direct qualification to the World Cup or a play-off against the third-place team in Group B.
So speaking of Group B, things are still tight. Japan leads the group with 17 points, but Saudi Arabia and Australia are just behind with 16. (The UAE is 6 points behind the Socceroos.) Australia won a crucial home game 3-2 against the Saudis, but Japan wound up drawing Iraq 1-1 on the road. Japan and Australia will play in Japan on August 31st, with Saudia Arabia going on the road to the UAE. Australia gets Thailand at home to close things out, while Saudi Arabia will play Japan. So… pretty much anything can happen.
CAF The Confederation of African Football will finally resume qualification after being on hold since November 2016. There’s five groups of four, with the group winner advancing directly to the World Cup. With only two matches played so far and four to go, it’s hard to really make any predictions at this point, but there’ll be a lot more to say after the next week of qualifying.
CONCACAF The (clears throat) Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is contesting its fifth and final round of World Cup qualification. The top three teams of six qualify directly to the World Cup, while the fourth place team will have face a team from the AFC in a two-legged playoff in November. Let’s go in order.
Suffice it say, Mexico (in qualification, at least) has shrugged off whatever demons haunted them from the qualifying disaster of four years ago. Mexico is undefeated so far and faces only one difficult road game, at Costa Rica on September 5th. On the 1st, they get Panama at home, which could be challenging, but they should win. Currently three points ahead of Costa Rica at 14, they should wind up topping the group.
Costa Rica has 11 points, three behind Mexico and three ahead of the US. That could change in a hurry, though. The Costa Ricans go on the road to Harrison, New Jersey on September 1st and then get Mexico at home four days later. A result from either game would be absolutely fantastic for Los Ticos. Back in June, they drew Panama at home, but did get 3 points from a 2-1 win over Trinidad and Tobago.
The US did exactly what they needed to do back in June. Christian “The Prince” Pulisic did his thing:
Then just three short days later, Micheal Bradley did his best Carli Lloyd impersonation:
Look, your voice would crack too if you saw an American chip the keeper from 40 yards out at the Azteca.
Anyway, the Americans have a pair of tough but winnable games in September. First off, they face a bunch of Costa Ricans who probably haven’t forgotten about the SnowClassico from four years ago. Of course, the Americans hopefully haven’t forgotten about the 4-0 beatdown last November that was the final straw for Jurgen Klinsmann. The US should be favorites at home, though. They will then go on the road to face Honduras, which is always tough but the Hondurans have continued the slide they’ve been on since the 2014 World Cup.
Next up is Panama, who at seven points are a point behind the US. Panama figures to split the upcoming games, with a visit to the Azteca and a home game against Trinidad and Tobago. Their most crucial qualifiers appear to be in October, but for now they look pretty good to finish fourth and advance to the playoff.
Minding the bottom are Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago, with 5 and 3 points, respectively. Both are in trouble. If Honduras can’t win at Trinidad and Tobago, then they will badly need a result against the US, though that game is at home. For T&T, things look pretty bleak. They’re not out, but they still have to play Costa Rica and Mexico on the road. The rest of the field figures to leave these two behind entering October.
CONMEBOL Next up is the Confederation of South American Football. The format is as elegant as it is simple: nine teams play home-and-home matches. The top four at the end go to the World Cup, while the fifth place team goes to an international playoff against a team from Oceania in November.
Qualification resumes August 31st with four matchdays remaining. Brazil ran away in the competition and has already qualified. Meanwhile, the second through eight placed teams are all within six points of each other. In order, they are Colombia (24), Uruguay and Chile (23), Argentina (22), Ecuador (20), and then Peru and Paraguay (18). With so many teams and four matchdays remaining, it’s hard to say anything definitive at this point. Let’s check back in a about a month or so.
OFC The Oceania Football Confederation recently whittled down its teams to just two: New Zealand and the Solomon Islands. They’ll play home-and-home on September 1st and 5th, with the winner moving on to the international playoff against a South American team. The Kiwis would have to be, and are, heavy favorites.
UEFA The Union of European Football Associations divides its 54 members into nine groups of six each, whereupon they play a double-round robin. The group winners advance automatically to the World Cup and the eight best runners-up are drawn into pairs and play-off for the last four spots. They’ve got four matches left in each group, so we’ll do a quick overview of each because there’s still a lot of wiggle room, as it were.
Group A Sweden is tied with France with on 13 points, with the Swedes currently ahead on goal differential. Also helpful was a 2-1 victory over France at home back in June. In third and fourth are the Netherlands and Bulgaria, with the Orange in serious danger of not even making the playoff. But hey, they got their groove a little bit by pasting Luxembourg 5-0, but, still, they really need to get a result in France at the end of this month.
Group B Switzerland currently sit 3 points ahead of Portugal, both of whom have pretty much pulled away from the rest of the pack. Go ahead and check back in on this group for the last day of the first round, when Portugal and Switzerland play each other in Lisbon.
Group C This could get weird. So Germany, as you might expect, are leading the group with 18 points. Northern Ireland are in second, with 13 points. The problem for the Northern Irish is, well, the first tiebreaker: Germany has an insane +26 goal differential, while Northern Ireland’s is “only” +9. Germany has had the benefit of playing San Marino twice already (so a combined +15 margin right there), but also the Germans’ narrowest result so far was a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, the Irish only beat San Marino 4-0, so… I don’t know if they’re going to go out and try to win 17-0 or not, but if they don’t, they’ll be in real trouble: if Germany gets 4 points out of its next matches against the Czech Republic and Norway, which it should, they’ll clinch the group. The Northern Irish are four points ahead of the Czechs, though, so they’re at least in good shape for the playoff.
Group D Who wants to win Group D? Serbia and Ireland are tied at 12 points, followed by Wales and Austria on 8 points each. The results from June made this pretty much clear as mud, as every team in the group drew the other. Looking at the September matches, it doesn’t look like it’ll get any better, so let’s punt this one to the new edition of this column.
Group E Poland isn’t, well, running away with this group, but they have a six point lead over Montenegro and Denmark. Fortunately for the Danes, they’ll get a shot at home against Poland on September 1st. Meanwhile, Montenegro will have a chance to make up some ground. They have to go on the road to Kazakhstan, but they should still win, and then they get Romania at home. So still plenty of play here.
Group F England are topping the group currently, but not by much: with 14 points, they’re two ahead of Slovakia, three ahead of Slovenia, and six ahead of Scotland. You might look at this and think “they should be ahead more, I mean, they just drew at Scotland?” Yeah, well, it could have been worse:
Again, though, we don’t stand to gain a lot of clarity here in September. The group is still tightly packed, and England’s road game is at Malta, which despite their best efforts they’ll probably win. Slovakia and Slovenia are each probably expecting to get somewhere between two and four points, and Scotland may walk away with six. It’s still anyone’s group.
Group G Not so much anyone’s group: Group G. Spain and Italy both have 16 points, with Spain ahead on goal differential. Both are 7 points ahead of Israel and Albania. The fun part is that Spain and Italy will desperately not want to finish in second, and they’ll play in Madrid on September 2nd.
Group H Group H features a Belgian side coming into its own and on 16 points, followed by Greece with 12 and Bosnia and Herzgovina with 11. A match between Greece and Bosnia that would’ve provided some much needed clarity ended with a 0-0 draw back in June, so we’ll have to see how the remaining matches shake out. Belgium will have a chance to clinch by pounding Gibraltar into the dirt and then getting a crack at the Greeks on the road. Bosnia, meanwhile, will play Cyprus and Gibraltar, so the Greeks might get left behind going into October.
Group I Iceland beat Croatia back in June, but they’re still behind due to goal differential, and they probably won’t have a chance to make up for it in September. They’re going on the road to eliminated, but game, Finland and then they have a home match against Ukraine. Turkey and Ukraine sit just two points behind the group leaders, so it’s still anyone’s game, and I think it’ll still be tight going into October.
And that’s finally it! I think things are setting up well for an extremely fun last round of qualifying in most confederations. It’s a shame we’ll lose all this in a bloated 48-team World Cup, but at least that isn’t until 2026. Until then, this column will return in a month in change. Meanwhile, I know there’s at least one person out there waiting for the college football preview. Fret not! I have the ratings in hand, I just need to find time to write the darn thing before Week 0.