Yearly Archives: 2016

2018 World Cup Update: Jurgen Klinsmann Memorial Edition

So it’s three days since the US lost one of the most embarrassing games I can recall them playing, a 4-0 humiliation at Costa Rica. (And this is after I had flown to Columbus and back to watch them lose their first home qualifier in fifteen years.) The best thing I can say about this title is that I hope I’m wrong and we’ll still qualify easily without having to fire the coach, but frankly I agree with… just about everyone now in saying that US needs a new face on the sidelines.

And in the future, let’s maybe not assume a coach can survive nearly two full cycles. For whatever reason, it just doesn’t seem to happen.

Anyway, I’ve updated the status of every team page with the latest results from this most recent international window. No one has been eliminated, but we could see a couple in March. Notably, though, no one is on the verge of qualifying. Depending on how things shake out in the AFC, we could see some teams qualify next June, but for everyone else it’ll be around Labor Day next year.

Let’s take a quick glance at each confederation.

AFC
The final twelve entrants from Asia are halfway through the qualification cycle. In Group A, it’s race between the three favorites. Iran is currently topping the group with 11 points, followed by South Korea with 10, and then Uzbekistan with 9. Some combination of those three will make it through, but the question is which one will finish where.

  • Iran’s five remaining matches feature three home games against China, Uzbekistan, and Syria. They’ll be favorites in all three. However, they also have to go on the road to Uzbekistan and South Korea. I think they’ll get at least 7 points from their home games, which puts them at somewhere between 18 and 24 points overall.
  • South Korea will play on the road three times, against China, Qatar, and Uzbekistan. They’ve already played all three at home and while they did win all those matches, it wasn’t terribly convincing. The only gimme is the home game against Syria, as they also have Iran at home. They’ve been so inconsistent they could get somewhere between 3 and 15 points from these matches, I think. In other words, they may comfortably qualify, or they could wind up in Tashkent next September really needing a result.
  • Uzbekistan will also play on the road three times, versus Syria, Iran, and China. They’ll be favorites in two of those three, but it will be really tough for them to get out of Tehran with any points. They also get Qatar and South Korea at home. I’d estimate they’ll get somewhere been 4 and 12 points, but I feel a bit better about their chances than I do for South Korea.

Over in Group B it’s not early as obvious how it’s going to go down, but the favorites would seem to be in a bit of trouble. Right now Saudi Arabia and Japan are tied with 10 points, followed by Australia and the United Arab Emirates with 9. The Blue Samurai and Socceroos still have some time to make up some ground, but they also still have to play each other. We’ll check back in on this in March.

CAF
There was some action in Africa this time around, but each team so far as only played 2 of 6 matches, so there’s a ways to go, and qualifying there doesn’t resume until next August. Some quick reactions, though:

  • Algeria is currently tied at the bottom of Group B with a single point.
  • In Group D, South Africa scored a pretty solid upset at home by beating Senegal 2-1.
  • In Group E, Egypt got some payback against the team that eliminated them last time around by beating Ghana 2-0 in Alexandria. The Pharaohs currently lead the group with 6 points, while the Black Stars have only 1.

CONCACAF
You know about what happened to the US already, so let’s talk about everyone else:

  • Last Friday every away team won their match, though the only one that was anything near a surprise was probably Panama 1, Honduras 0.
  • Los Canaleros then went back home and kept Mexico at bay, earning a 0-0 draw.
  • Trinidad and Tobago are so far playing the “sixth team that doesn’t really belong” role with a 2-0 loss at home to Costa Rica and then a 3-1 loss on the road against Honduras.

Again, we’re just two games into ten overall, so we’ll have more in the spring.

OFC
Oceania’s wacky qualification format means two teams didn’t even play this time around. The most shocking thing was probably New Zealand’s scoreless draw on the road against New Caledonia, but nonetheless the All-Whites should have this round wrapped up by the end of March. They’ll meet the winner of Group B in August.

UEFA
They Europeans have played only 4 matches of 10, so we’ll see them again in March. A quick survey of the groups:

  • In Group A, it looks like the Dutch are back, just behind France’s 10 points with 7 of their own. The question is if the Swedes will continue to stick around.
  • Group B is going to come down to Switzerland or Portugal. Right now the difference is Switzerland’s win at home to start the campaign, The two won’t meet again until the very last match of the round in October.
  • Germany remains completely in control of Group C, but hey, they at least put on a good show at San Marino last weekend (they won 8-0 in front of crowd of 3,500). Northern Ireland and Azerbaijan are fighting it out for the second spot, though the former did beat the latter 4-0.
  • In Group D, the Welsh have now drawn three straight games at Austria, versus Georgia, and versus Serbia. The group remains tight between Ireland, Serbia, and Wales.
  • In Group E, Montenegro’s darkhorse qualification campaign suffered a 3-2 setback in Armenia. Poland continued to cruise and Denmark, 4 points behind and in third place, continues to fight to stay in the mix.
  • In Group F, England beat Scotland 3-0 and remains at the top of the group, but clustered right behind them are Slovenia, Slovakia, and Lithuania.
  • Yes, Israel is currently just a point behind Italy and Spain with 9 points, but that already includes a loss at home to the Italians and they have to play two three more times. Group G may come down to Italy’s road game at Spain next September.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina stayed alive in Group H by picking up a point on the road against Greece, but this still Belgium’s to lose.
  • Last but definitely not least, they’re Group I, which remains the last predictable. Croatia did beat Euro 2016 darlings Iceland, but that was at home. There’s still a lot of games to be played here.

 That’s about it for now. Look for this column again in March!

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 5

Get ’em while they’re… only a couple days old?

Anyway, yes, at lot of stuff happened, but frankly most of the scenarios I outlined last week are still in play. Really, most of the changes you see in this week’s predictions are because of two things. First, Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss. Second, Auburn lost to Georgia. So long, the SEC’s best hope of getting three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls! (TAMU could still do it, but I don’t see them beating LSU at this point.) Of course, that leaves me in the rather uncomfortable position of putting four (4!) Big Ten teams in those selfsame bowl games, so… check back next week when I hopefully have something more reasonable.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (CBS): Neither of these teams is especially, er, gifted offensively, but I have a hard time predicting success for South Carolina’s very young quarterback against a reasonably good Florida defense.
  • Baylor @ Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2): Sooners.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (ABC/ESPN2): The Hoosier’s are the Big Ten’s weekly trap game, and probably one of the hardest remaining contests for the Nittany Lions. That said, State’s been playing at a high enough level that they should win.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): Yes, the Bulldogs upset Texas A&M, but that’s about where this train figures to stop.
  • West Virginia @ Texas (FS1): People are saying that this is a game that could save Charlie Strong’s job, but I’m pretty sure around Texas it’s thought that you should probably be beating West Virginia regardless. That said, I don’t really see Texas winning here.
  • Cincinnati @ Central Florida (ESPNU): Speaking of fired, I think it’s getting pretty close to the end of the line for Tommy Tuberville at Cincy.
  • Southern Methodist @ East Carolina (ESPNEWS): I don’t have a read on this game at all, so I’m going to default to ECU.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (FSN): Hey, it’s a team Iowa State should probably actually beat!
  • Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): While I’d like to see Kentucky win the SEC East as much as anyone, realistically I have to go with the Vols.
  • Northwestern @ Purdue (BTN): Northwestern.
  • Tulsa @ Navy (CBSS): The Golden Hurricane can put their fair share of points, but I still like Navy here.

12:30: North Carolina State @ Syracuse (ACC): There’s probably only a couple of teams that have had more confusing seasons than NC State, but I still like them here.

2:00: Miami @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): The Cavs should continue to help the Canes get their mojo back.

3:30:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@San Antonio, TX; NBC): Notre Dame is super, really, not very good this year. Not even in the “oh, they’re overrated” sense, they’re bad. Army, meanwhile, is enjoying a pretty good season for Army. Unfortunately, I still have to go with the Domers in the Alamodome.
  • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, mostly because the South’s Oldest Rivalry is between North Carolina and Virginia. All that said, goodness me Georgia is so very mediocre this year, while Auburn is suddenly a machine. This shouldn’t be close.
  • Pittsburgh @ Clemson (ABC): Pitt has some good interior linemen and a couple of very good running backs, but none of this should present an obstacle to the Tigers.
  • Ohio State @ Maryland (ESPN): So I’m actually in Columbus, OH this week. I was here for the US-Mexico game which, uh, didn’t go so well. But I will probably be watching this one on TV with a bunch of Buckeye partisans, and I suspect they’ll at least go home happy with this one. That said, this Maryland team isn’t as terrible as they’ve been the past few years.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Wisconsin.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Both of these teams can score, and then add in that anyone can score against the Red Raiders, and, well…
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): Speaking of teams with no defense, it’s us 🙁
    I don’t really have anything against Paul Johnson. I think he’s a good fit for this team and the school. But, practically speaking, I would understand if he got fired after this season, mostly because the main reason I don’t think he’d get fired is that the athletic department is currently paying two people to not coach basketball for us. Unlike, say, Charlie Strong, I don’t think Johnson is really even on the hotseat, but I would expect the heat to start getting turned if things don’t go well against UVA next weekend.
    All that said, I do think Ted Roof is gone after the season, regardless. It was generally thought this year’s defense couldn’t be much worse than last year’s, and we’ve been proven spectacularly wrong. Given that many issues seem to come down to coaching rather than talent (and remember, this is college, you can’t fire the players), I don’t see how he retains his position.
    So, yeah, this game! Well, VPI looks pretty good this year, but they’ve hit some occasional speedbumps that provide just a sliver of optimism up in Blacksburg. Just a sliver.
  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC): Am I actually about to pick Vandy in a SEC game. Yes I am!
  • Tulane @ Houston (CBSS): Houston.

4:00: Stanford @ Oregon (Pac12): I suspect there were many that circled this date on their calendar, and, well, things don’t always go according to plan. I still like Stanford there, though.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (ESPN): I’ve been learning a lot about the Golden Boot this week, namely, that the trophy is actually gold and it weighs a lot. Either way, I don’t think effects of Novembert will really take hold here and I like LSU.
  • Wake Forest @ Louisville (ESPN2): Look, Wake is halfway decent this year, but the only drama in this game is when Louisville will pull Lamar Jackson.
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPNU): I’ve been predicting Memphis will win here in all my bowl projections, so let’s stay consistent.
  • Boise State @ Hawaii (CBSS): The Broncos venture to Hawaii, hoping to stay relevant in the MWC Mountain division race. I think they will.

7:30:

  • Southern California @ Washington (FOX): Game of the Week! USC has rapidly improved (almost as much as Auburn) and is the best team by pure talent that UDub will face the entire rest of the season. I think the Huskies will get past this, but their defensive chops will be truly tested.
  • Mississippi @ Texas A&M (SEC): Both these teams are now down a starting quarterback, but I still like TAMU here.
  • Minnesota @ Nebraska (BTN): Technically, these two rivals are tied in the Big Ten West, but I think Nebraska should win easily.

8:00: Michigan @ Iowa (ABC): Speaking of winning easily, oof this could get ugly.

9:00: Oregon State @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): UCLA has to be one of the most disappointing teams of 2016, right? The schedule offers a bit of a reprieve, as they should still be able to beat Oregon State.

10:00: Colorado @ Arizona (FS1): The #pac12afterdark window kicks off with, well, a likely easy Buffs victory. But still!

10:15:

  • New Mexico @ Utah State (ESPN2): I’m about to type that I’m picking New Mexico, which feels weird, but here we are: I’m picking New Mexixco.
  • Colorado State @ Air Force (ESPNU): I don’t think the Falcons are really all that good this year, while I still like the Rams.

10:30:

  • California @ Washington State (ESPN): Things figure to get trippy up on Pullman. Expect yards, expect points, but still expect a Wazzou victory.
  • San Diego State @ Nevada (CBSS): Aztecs.

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 4

I’m going to avoid any snarky remarks about being better at this than some notable professionals in the predictions business and cut right to the chase.

I’ve always liked ESPN’s Bubble Watch feature for the NCAA tournament, and in some ways, this is a similar exercise. So let’s go conference-by-conference and assess their chances. The full predictions, as usual, are here.

ACC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Clemson (6-0 ACC, 9-0 overall): Clemson closes with Pitt, Wake Forest, and South Carolina. They would have to lose to both Pitt and Wake Forest to miss out on the ACC Championship Game, which would also deny them a chance at the playoff. If they win out, they’re in.

CFP bubble:

  • Louisville (6-1, 8-1): they close with Wake Forest, Houston, and a potential SEC East champion Kentucky. They figure to win all three, but Clemson has to lose twice for them to have any shot at the ACCCG and, therefore, the playoff. They do, however, figure to take the ACC’s spot in the Orange Bowl, so it’s not all bad.

Bowling: Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Carolina

Work left to do:

  • Miami (2-3, 5-4): The Canes finally got out of their post-FSU funk by demolishing Pitt 51-28. They figure to win out against Virginia, NC State, and Duke.
  • Pittsburgh (2-3, 5-4): Pitt just needs to win one out of Clemson, Duke, and Syracuse, and, well, 7-5 looks pretty likely.
  • Georgia Tech (2-3, 5-4): we just need to win one of Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia. I’m not sure how good I feel about it, but I currently have us in.
  • Syracuse (2-3, 4-5): the Orange have to win two out of NC State, Florida State, and Pitt. I think they’ll be lucky to win one.
  • North Carolina State (1-4, 4-5): their loss to Boston College really hurt their chances a few weeks back. I like them against Syracuse, but they close with Miami and North Carolina.
  • Boston College (1-5, 4-5): I should probably rank BC higher, because they might have the best chances of the 4-5 teams. Yeah, they’ll lose to FSU, but then they get UConn and Wake Forest. That said, Wake is improved this year BC still has trouble generating offense. If they win in Winston-Salem, it’ll be an upset.
  • Duke (0-5, 3-6): not dead yet, but that figures to no longer be the case after a visit from the Tar Heels Saturday.

Big 12
CFP bubble:

  • Oklahoma (6-0, 7-2): figures to be the Big 12’s Sugar Bowl rep. Too many things have to happen in front of them to make it into the actual playoff.
  • Oklahoma State (5-1, 7-2): I’m currently projecting the Big 12 to only get one team into the CFP-controlled bowls. Provided neither lose before then, the Bedlam winner figures to make it into the Sugar Bowl.
  • West Virginia (4-1, 7-1): it’s a long shot for the Mountaineers to make it to a CFP-controlled bowl. If they beat Oklahoma in Morgantown, they would then need the Sooners to turn around and win Bedlam in order for them to win as Big 12 champs.

Bowling: Baylor

Work left to do:

  • Texas Christian (3-3, 5-4): I like the Horned Frogs the best out of the group we’re about to go over, but that mostly just means I like them to go 5-4 in-conference and not 4-5. But that’ll be enough.
  • Kansas State (3-3, 5-4): K-State figures to make it to 6-6 since they get to play Kansas. Anything beyond that is a reach.
  • Texas (3-3, 5-4): See above, but they do also play TCU at home.
  • Texas Tech (2-4, 4-5): the Red Raiders need two, and they’ll probably have to go through Iowa State and Baylor to do it. I think they can, but it’ll be a close thing.

Big Ten
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Michigan (6-0, 9-0): they’ll get two more warmups, but then they’ll have two tough games in quick succession. First, they’re going to Columbus this year. If they get past the Buckeyes, they’ll probably get to play Wisconsin again in the Big Ten Championship Game. They beat the Badgers 14-7 at home the first time around.
  • Ohio State (5-1, 8-1): if they beat Michigan, then they’ll also have the same Badger issue. Either way, the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game is going to the Rose Bowl.

CFP bubble:

  • Pennsylvania State (5-1, 7-2): since the Nittany Lions don’t figure to lose again, I have them as slight favorites to get a 3rd spot for the Big Ten in one of the CFP-controlled bowls. 
  • Wisconsin (4-2, 7-2): of the three teams atop the West division, I like the Badgers the best to win out and clinch the division (since they beat the other two contenders). That said, it’s an open question how the Committee would treat a 10-3 BTNCG loser against a 10-2 Penn State. I mean, after all, that means all three of Wisconsin’s losses were to some combination of Michigan and Ohio State. It may depend on if and how they lose. Of course, the ultimate chaos scenario is if they win the BTNCG…
  • Nebraska (4-2, 7-2): to even be in this discussion, Nebraska needs Wisconsin to lose to one of Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota, and then for us to have selective amnesia about that time they lost 62-3 to Ohio State, and then for them to upset those selfsame Buckeyes or Michigan in the BTNCG. Yeah… 

Bowling: Minnesota

Work left the to do:

  • Iowa (3-3, 5-4): Iowa gets to play Illinois, which bodes well for them getting to 6 wins. Which is totally what they’re paying Kirk Ferentz some unholy sum of money for, right?
  • Indiana (3-3, 5-4): they Hoosiers only need to win one more, but it’s going to come down to the end, since they get to play Penn State and Michigan before finishing with Purdue.
  • Maryland (2-4, 5-4): that’s right, the Terps! They fails a similar predicament, though, with Ohio State and Nebraska lined up before Rutgers.
  • Northwestern (3-3, 4-5): by far the easiest schedule, but they need to win two of Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois.
  • Illinois (2-4, 3-6): at trip to Madison this weekend should end their hopes.
  • Purdue (1-5, 3-6): the Boilermakers would have to win out against Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Yeah, that’s not happening.

Pac-12
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Washington (6-0, 9-0): their bonafides will continue to improve with a visit from an improving USC team this weekend, but the real drama figures to be in Pullman. Sadly, I see that game has already been scheduled for 12:30 PM Pacific time. 

CFP bubble:

  • Colorado (5-1, 7-2): I don’t think they can make the playoff, per se, but the Pac-12 championship loser figures to make the Rose Bowl (or the winner if they’re not Washington, for that matter). 
  • Utah (4-2, 7-2): see above.
  • Washington State (6-0, 7-2): they can get to the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champs, but that’s about it.

Bowling: Southern California, Stanford

Work left to do:

  • Arizona State (2-4, 5-4): if they can survive playing Utah and at Washington, they’ll be playing in Tuscon for a bowl bid.
  • California (2-4, 4-5): it’s not impossible for the Bears, but they need to win two out of Washington State, Stanford, and UCLA. Which, again, it’s not impossible, but it does feel unlikely.
  • Oregon (1-5, 3-6): the Ducks have to win out against an improving Stanford and then two straight road games against Utah and Oregon State. The odds of winning all three figure to slim.
  • California-Los Angeles (1-5, 3-6): they have to win out against Oregon State, Southern Cal, and Cal. This doesn’t bode well.

SEC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

  • Alabama (6-0, 9-0): considering the current state of the SEC East, the only game of any importance left on their schedule is the Iron Bowl. Considering the stakes, can we get it moved back to Legion Field one more time?
  • Auburn (6-1, 7-2): yeah, a two-loss SEC champ figures to crack the top four. Such is life.

CFP bubble:

  • Texas A&M (4-2, 7-2): remember, one of Auburn’s two losses is to TAMU, but by blowing it against Miss State they also likely blew any chance of being able to win the SEC. They’re still in a good spot to get a Sugar Bowl bid, though.

Bowling: Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas

Work left to do:

  • Louisiana State (3-2, 5-3): as it turns out, Alabama is pretty good! But the Tigers get to close out with a fading Arkansas team, and if that doesn’t get them to 6, well, they were originally going to play Presbyterian, which, is that really that different from an SEC East team at this point?
  • Kentucky (4-3, 5-4): the Wildcats have only one more conference game, and that’s at Tennessee. I’d say that’s a toss-up at this point, but either way, they’ll beat Austin Peay and then lose badly to Lamar Jackson and company. So their ceiling is pretty solidly set at 7 wins.
  • Georgia (3-4, 5-4): Georgia figure to be in good shape to get to 7-5, which is what they got Kirby Smart for, right?
  • South Carolina (3-4, 5-4): seriously, where does the tradition of SEC teams parking a FCS team the weekend before Thanksgiving come from? Either way, it’ll get the Gamecocks bowling.
  • Mississippi (1-4, 4-5): well, the Rebels are down a Chad Kelly against Texas A&M this weekend. That’s not good! But then they get to play Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
  • Vanderbilt (1-4, 4-5): Vandy closes with Mizzou, Mississippi, and Tennessee. I figure they’ll only win one of those, but thanks to their APR scores and general lack of enough teams that will be bowl eligible, I figure they’ll go bowling at 5-7.
  • Mississippi State (2-3, 4-5): the odds of Miss State also pulling off upsets against two of Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss are pretty slim. But there’s a chance!

I’ll cover the Group of Five, but in brief.

American
Bowling: Temple, South Florida, Navy, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis

Work left to do: Central Florida (3-2, 5-4), Cincinnati (1-4, 4-5), Southern Methodist (2-3, 4-5), East Carolina (1-4, 3-6), Tulane (0-5, 3-6)

Conference USA
Bowling: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech

Work left to do: Texas-San Antonio (4-2, 5-4), Southern Mississippi (3-2, 5-4), North Texas (2-3, 4-5), Charlotte (3-2, 4-5), Texas-El Paso (1-4, 3-6)

Independents
Work left to do: Brigham Young (5-4), Army (5-4), Notre Dame (3-6)

Mid-American
CFP Bubble:

  • Western Michigan (6-0, 10-0): the Broncos currently lead… the Broncos of Boise State in the CFP Poll by one spot. I don’t think Western Michigan is truly safe for the Group of Five spot unless they win out and Boise either loses again or doesn’t make the Mountain West title game.

Bowling: Ohio, Toledo, Eastern Michigan

Work left to do: Akron (3-3, 5-5), Central Michigan (2-4, 5-5), Miami (4-2, 4-6), Ball State (1-5, 4-6), Northern Illinois (3-2, 3-6)

Mountain West
CFP Bubble:

  • Boise State (4-1, 8-1): Boise figures to be heavy favorites in their remaining games, but they need Wyoming to lose twice to make the Mountain West title game. The Cowboys do have a game against San Diego State, but they’d still need to drop the ball against UNLV or New Mexico for Boise to have a shot. If Boise makes the MWC title game and beats San Diego State, though, that still figures to give them a better resume than Western Michigan. 

Bowling: Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State

Work left to do: Colorado State (3-3, 5-4), Hawaii (3-3, 4-6), Nevada-Las Vegas (2-3, 3-6), Utah State (1-5, 3-6), Nevada (1-4, 3-6)

Sun Belt
Bowling:  Appalachian State (5-0, 7-2), Troy (4-0, 7-1)

Work left to do: Arkansas State (4-0, 4-4), Idaho (3-2, 6-4), Georgia Southern (3-2, 4-5), South Alabama (1-5, 4-5), Louisiana-Lafayette (2-3, 3-5), Louisiana-Monroe (2-3, 3-6), New Mexico State (1-3, 2-6), Texas State (0-4, 2-6)

Overall, I was three teams short this week, but that includes a 5-7 Vanderbilt. If this threat continues to linger, we should start seeing some stories Thanksgiving week about what will happen. Until then…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): I don’t think Ken Niumatalolo is really looking to leave the Naval Academy, but I’d like to think that a win here could catapult him to a major conference team. C’mon, Purdue, pick up the phone.
  • Wisconsin @ Northwestern (ABC): To me, the most agonizing about thing about this game was worrying that Wisconsin could conceivably win easily and shut out Northwestern without covering.
  • Vanderbilt @ Auburn (ESPN): College football, more than any other sport I can think of, can really see a team change its character over the course of 12 games, and perhaps no other team exemplifies that more than these Auburn Tigers. Seriously. I don’t see anything other than the Commodores being incinerated here.
  • Louisville @ Boston College (ESPN2): Boston College won an ACC game last weekend! Yay! Enjoy it while it lasts, which isn’t much longer.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (FS1): The Longhorns defense isn’t very good, but at least it exists.
  • Georgia Southern @ Mississippi (ESPNU): This Southern team isn’t enough to make Ole Miss worry this year.
  • Michigan State @ Illinois (ESPNEWS): Uh, don’t watch this. I’m not really sure I want to know the answer to this question. I guess I’ll go with Sparty, though.
  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (SEC): This Miss State team is proving that Dak Prescott may have been the greatest college football player to ever live.
  • Indiana @ Rutgers (BTN): Indiana.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSS): I think Army is improved, I just don’t see this as a win for them. If they do pull it off, though, they’ll probably go bowling.

12:30:

  • Pittsburgh @ Miami (ACC): Is this the game where the Hurricanes can finally get their mojo back? Really, both of these teams have been disappointing this year, especially after promising starts for each. I’m going with the ‘Canes once again, but probably not much longer if they drop this.
  • Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (ACC): This Georgia Tech defense would fit in in the Pac-12. Most of the issues I have with them just come down to coaching, which has to make me think that Ted Roof is on the way out. Unfortunately, Mitch Trubisky and company have the tools more than almost any other team in the ACC not named “Clemson” or “Louisville” to really feast on our defense. The best case scenario seems to be the shootouts that have peppered this series as of late, so as is often the case in these games, I hope we get the ball last.

3:00: Virginia @ Wake Forest (ACC/RSN): There has to be some sort of prophecy about Wake Forest being okay once every ten years or something.

3:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (FOX): Thank you, Texas. TCU.
  • Florida @ Arkansas (CBS): Yeah, it’d be pretty fitting for one of the SEC East frontrunners to go get clobbered on the road against an SEC West team.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ABC/ESPN2): I just don’t see K-State being able to keep up here.
  • Syracuse @ Clemson (ABC/ESPN2): See above, except replace “K-State” with “Syracuse”.
  • Maryland @ Michigan (ESPN): Okay, so, Maryland is, like, kinda okay this year? Look for them to lose by 20 or so instead of 30+.
  • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ESPNU): Boy howdy, this 3:30 slate is kind of bleak, isn’t it? This might be the most exciting game on this list, and even I’m pegging VPI has prohibitive favorites.
  • Oregon State @ Stanford (FS1): I think Stanford can notch a Pac-12 win here? Maybe?
  • Purdue @ Minnesota (BTN): Seriously Boilermakers, run the option. Of course, the AD you just hired sort of didn’t get along with our coach, so maybe he’ll have a prejudice against option coaches? Then again, I suspect not a lot of people get along with Paul Johnson. Oh, and yeah, Gophers.
  • Brigham Young @ Cincinnati (CBSS): Tubs, you should’ve got while the gettin’ was good. Stormin’ Mormons roll.

4:00:

  • Memphis @ Southern Methodist (ESPNEWS): Okay, SMU, good job on beating Houston and (maybe?) costing Tom Herman the Texas job. Wait, no, the other thing. I have Memphis here.
  • Missouri @ South Carolina (SEC): I feel like if I were making a “list of unwatchable major conference football games”, this one would probably be near the top of the list. Uh, Gamecocks?
  • Arizona @ Washington State (Pac12): While I’m sure it’d be wonderful to see two 8-0 in the Pac-12 squads roll into the Apple Cup, I don’t see it. I think Wazzou is going to pick up a random loss on the way, so why not here?

5:30: Florida International @ Western Kentucky (beIN): Oof. Hilltopers going to score some points, y’all.

7:00:

  • Oregon @ Southern California (ESPN): USC has an upright quarterback among other things, which against this Oregon team is more than enough.
  • Kansas @ West Virginia (ESPN2): The flames will rise from the couches after taking a brief break due.
  • Florida State @ North Carolina State (ESPNU): I’m not going to hold losing to Boston College against NC State all that much because, hey, that happens sometimes. While I think they can offer some resistance to FSU, ultimately they’re just too much to overcome.
  • Hawaii @ San Diego State (CBSS): Other than their (inexplicable) loss to the country’s best worst team (South Alabama), the Aztecs have looked good this year. Hawaii’s not as awful as past editions, but this game in particular figures to be too tough for them.

7:30:

  • Georgia @ Kentucky (SEC): It would make my day if this is season where Georgia loses to both Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but, well, I just can’t predict it.
  • Iowa @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): It seems about right that Penn State would drop this game coming off the big win over Ohio State.

8:00:

  • Nebraska @ Ohio State (ABC): Speaking of the Buckeyes, at some point their offense has to get back on track, right? I like the odds of it happening here.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): Okay, so it took a large man with a very heavy Cajun accent to drag LSU’s offense out of the stone age, and lo and behold, they look, well, like we all expected a properly functioning LSU offense to look. Go figure! Seriously, LSU, this is was the job DACOACHO was made for. If he doesn’t get this, I hope he gets the Arkansas job or something where he’ll play LSU every year just to spite them. That said… this Alabama team is, like, really good. I just can’t bring myself to pick against them.
  • East Carolina @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): The Alabama-LSU game is on CBS, so it’ll probably just be getting to the half when this game is starting the 4th quarter. Then again, Tulsa is pretty pass-happy, so maybe… the third quarter.

10:15:

  • Utah State @ Wyoming (ESPN2): The Aggies aren’t that good this year, so if you’re asking if Wyoming can make it two in a row, I say “why not?”
  • Nevada @ New Mexico (ESPNU): Did you know Bob Davie is still the head coach of New Mexico? Yeah, really! I might watch this just for that. (I also like the Lobos here.)

10:30: Washington @ California (ESPN): And finally, we get to #pac12afterdark. This one goes either one of two ways. One way is UDub comes out pissed at getting ranked 5th by the Committee and completely goes off on the Golden Bears and wins, like, 51-7. The other is that Washington starts to show some cracks, and the Bears keep it close until a few bounces go against them in the 4th quarter and the Huskies wind up winning by 10 or 14, which is a win but satisfies no one. Either way, I’m going with them.

Furthermore, Carthage must be destroyed.