Yearly Archives: 2012

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Arkansas @ South Carolina (CBS): It’s difficult to come up with a reason why Arkansas has any sort of chance in this game, the lack of Marcus Lattimore notwithstanding.
  • Miami @ Virginia (ABC): Virginia is actually a slight favorite at home. Uh, what? I’m tempted almost to say “‘Canes roll” but I guess we’ll find out.
  • Louisville @ Syracuse (ABC): Louisville has only three games remaining. Three chances for the Big East to preserve some shred of dignity. Can they pull it off? Well, it’s the Big east so it’s hard to say, but you have to like their chances against the Orange.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (ESPN): I have Michigan here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Widlcats win.
  • Wisconsin @ Indiana (ESPN2): The Big Ten is also hoping to preserve some dignity and is probably desperately rooting for a Wisconsin victory.
  • Army @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Rutgers hasn’t played since losing to Kent State. In the meantime, Army got its second win, and by far its best, over Air Force last weekend. Rutgers should still win handily, but hey, they should’ve easily beat Kent State too.
  • Kansas @ Texas Tech (FSN): KU is just awful this year.
  • Purdue @ Iowa (BTN): Purdue began Big Ten play on October 6, and has lost every game since. Both teams sport mediocre offenses, so if the Boilermakers keep this low scoring they have a chance, but otherwise Iowa has a slight edge.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Florida (SEC): I guess this is homecoming for the Gators?
  • Missouri @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee beat Troy last week. This ordinarily wouldn’t be remarkable, except the game was a 55-48 shootout. However, the Volunteers are slightly more competent on offense than the Tigers are, so I’ll give them a slight edge.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (ACC): Our defense has looked better so far, yes, but the teams we have played have been awful on offense. The only team that was even mediocre, BYU, ended up blowing us out. Carolina sports an all-conference running back in Giovani Bernard and a competent passer in Bryn Renner. They also have a pretty good defense. Both teams are playing for something – Tech to preserve our bowl streak and Carolina to show that the sanctions aren’t getting them down. We’ll see which is the more powerful in Chapel Hill.

1:30: Colorado @ Arizona (FX): Colorado is, like, so bad you guys.

3:00:

  • Oregon State @ Stanford (FOX): This is a pretty pivotal Pac-12 matchup. Both teams have yet to play the frontrunner (Oregon), so in order to have any shot in the Pac-12 North they need to win this game. It’s actually difficult to get a read on these teams. Stanford has two losses, Notre Dame and Washington. Oregon State has only one, also to Washington. Both are sort of bizarro Pac-12 teams this year, sporting good defensive numbers but mediocre offensive ones. I actually took a break here because I’m legitimately stumped by who is going to win this. I’m going to roll with the Beavers and maintain a watch on my local In-n-Out, which is also the closest one to Stanford.
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State shouldn’t lose this game, but they also probably shouldn’t have lost 33-6 to Virginia either. Regardless, by all rights the Wolfpack should win.

3:30:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Alabama (CBS): Helpfully, TAMU has already played two defenses that are almost as good as Alabama’s: Florida’s and LSU’s. TAMU failed to break 20 points in either contest and lost both of them. I would guess the same will happen here.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): Nebraska should almost certainly win here, but then again everyone thought Penn State was going to lose 10 games this year too. There’s not a lot of certainty in the Big Ten this year, that’s for sure.
  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (ABC/ESPN2): I hope you like points! That said, OSU’s defense is a lot less awful than WVU’s, which is also why WVU has lost three straight games and likely going on four.
  • Maryland @ Clemson (ESNPU): A lot of folks are, like me, projecting Clemson into the BCS this year. Which probably means the time is ripe for a Clemson’ing. That said, pretty much every player on Maryland’s team has torn their ACL at this point and having watched last weekend’s grisly affair the Terrapins should stand absolutely no chance in hell in this one.
  • Air Force @ San Diego State (NBCS): San Diego State’s upset of Boise last weekend not only punted Boise out of the BCS but also put SDSU right into the thick of the MWC title chase. Air Force lost to Army last weekend. I think I like the Aztecs here.
  • Baylor @ Oklahoma (FSN): Again, I hope you like points! That said, the Sooners actually kinda sorta play a little (okay, well, a lot) of defense. Baylor may be able to keep up in the first half but will probably fade in the second.
  • Minnesota @ Illinois (BTN): Minnesota can secure a bowl bid with a win, thus likely achieving the rare feat of going 2-6 in one’s conference and still making a bowl game.

5:00: Tulsa @ Houston (CBSS): I hope you like points, part three! That said, Houston has basically no defense. It may be fun for awhile, but once again the team from Oklahoma should prevail over the one from Texas.

7:00:

  • Kansas State @ Texas Christian (FOX): Well, no one will doubt Gary Patterson’s cajones a this point, after deciding to go for two early in the overtime game against WVU. That said, that won’t be enough against Bill Synder’s particular brand of clock-killing wizardry, Collen Klein or no.
  • Mississippi State @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Hey Bulldog(s), remember that time you started 7-0? And then you gave up 38 points to both Alabama and TAMU? Yeah, I’m not expecting much better here, but hey you’ll be favored against the last two teams on your schedule.
  • Georgia @ Auburn (ESPN2): Are there any prop bets on which quarter of the game Gene Chizik will get fired in? I’m only partially kidding here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Neither of these teams really play offense in any meaningful way, but Vandy does usually play defense against teams that aren’t obviously superior to them. Ole Miss is not Georgia or Florida, so the Commodores have a real good shot at winning this and securing a bowl bid for the second consecutive year. (And as I noted in the bowl games column last weekend, Vandy has never gone to a bowl game in back-to-back years.)
  • Boise State @ Hawaii (NBCS): Hawaii used to at least fling the ball around and put up a ton of points. Now they don’t even do that. The Broncos should bounce back with this one.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Southern Methodist (FSN): I’m not even going to look up SMU because USM is so awful this year. What the hell is happening down in Hattiesburg?

8:00: Notre Dame @ Boston College (ABC): You might be tempted to say, “hey, so ND went to overtime last weekend against a Pitt team that just got blown out by UConn”. And that is a thing you could say. But trust me on this: BC is a lot more awful than Pitt is, and by a pretty good margin.

10:15: Idaho @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): I just can’t help but feel bad for Idaho. I’ve always thought they were a quirky little team. They play in the KIBBIE DOME, for goodness sake! And yet, they will be adrift, a team without a conference, a rival who refuses to play them, and a non-trivial number of folks who think they should just give up on this FBS thing. And they are just plum bad this year: 123rd in scoring offense and 121st in scoring defense. BYU will almost certainly blow them out.

10:30:

  • Oregon @ California (ESPN): So Cal is probably going to be 1-5 (against FBS teams) at home in their newly remodeled stadium after this game. Probably not quite the way they drew it up.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Washington State (ESPN2): Multiple commentators have said that Wazzou officials should’ve known there’d be “drama” when they hired Mike Leach. Help me out here: does anyone remember any “drama” with Leach before Craig James untertook a campaign to get him fired at Texas Tech? Because I sure don’t. Anyway, they’ll probably lose this.
  • Fresno State @ Nevada (NBCS): Nevada has to have this game to have any shot at the MWC title. I think they’ll give their best but Fresno should pull it out in the end. That said, this is probably the most interesting of the late games. And in how many of those games will it get down to a “pleasant” 16 degrees? Not many outside of this one, I’d wager.

Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 4

Welcome back. The predictions are up, and we’re only three weeks away now from the final set of predictions. I did attempt to search for news, but there’s not much action going on there yet except for a few stray beat writers and the rest of the Internet’s so-called “predictions”. Pschaw.

A quick note on methodology: remember, this is not a snapshot, but rather predictions on where teams will be at the end of the season. Hence why we’ve got Alabama and Oregon in the title game.

Quick note before we begin: with their 24-17 victory over Florida Atlantic, Navy reached the 6 win mark and accepted a bid to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

BCS
Let’s start at the top. I am still projecting Oregon, if they win out, to pass Kansas State in the BCS. I doubt at this point they will actually completely pass Kansas State in the computers, but rather just gain enough ground to let their #2 ranking in both human polls buoy them to the top.

Other than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State, at-large locks for BCS bids are likely Florida (provided Georgia doesn’t lose to Auburn this weekend and they do lose to Alabama in the SEC title game), Florida State (provided they win the ACC title game, or with an at-large bid assured if they beat Florida), Oklahoma (if they win out). I am still agreeing with some other analysts that the Rose will play nice and take Oklahoma, which they will probably be more inclined to do if Nebraska is the Big Ten’s champion. This would allow the Fiesta to match Notre Dame against Kansas State. At this point, if Florida does not lose to Florida State (or anyone else), they will likely head to the Sugar Bowl as Alabama’s replacement. If they do stumble, then you could see Georgia or South Carolina there.

Louisville, or whoever bothers to win the Big East, is the last automatic qualifier. This leaves a mess for the last possible at-large spot. As noted last week, Boise State was in position to do this by finishing ahead of Nebraska in the BCS standings, but they lost to San Diego State. There is a two-team-per-conference limit, so none of the various SEC teams littering the top 14 can qualify. A strong candidate, if everything were to be done today, would be Oregon State, but I have them losing twice to end up at 9-3. I also have Stanford losing to Oregon, putting them at 9-3. USC could have as many as five losses at this point if they end up playing in the Pac-12 title game. This leaves only one potential 1 or 2 loss team: Clemson. Provided Clemson doesn’t pull a Clemson against Maryland or NC State, they will head into their game against South Carolina at 10-1. If they win, they will wrap up an at-large bid. At this point, given the rest of my projections, even if they lose to the Gamecocks they will still be 10-2 and more palatable than, say, a 10-2 Rutgers. For those of keeping score at home, yes, this would be the first time ever the ACC has sent two teams to the BCS. They would likely be selected by the Sugar, leaving Louisville to play FSU in the Orange.

ACC
With Clemson off to the promised land, this leaves the rest of the ACC’s bowl partners in rather unenviable positions. The Chick-fil-a would almost certainly go with an 8-4/5 Miami, and the Russell Athletic Bowl snapping up NC State. I have no other ACC teams projected to finish with winning records, with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finishing 6-6. (Well, UNC should finish 8-4, but they’re on sanctions.) And even then, that’s with a rather heavy dose of optimism on my part, because I’m sure not crazy about our chances against Carolina this weekend. Either way, I’m sending VPI to the Sun, us to the Belk, and Duke to the Music City.

Big 12
I was able to put Texas back into the Cotton Bowl, but I couldn’t quite arrange things to put Texas A&M into the game as well. I also put Texas Tech into the Alamo over Oklahoma State, but everything else proceeds in order from there. In a rarity, the Big 12 will actually have enough teams, even with two of them going to the BCS.

Big East
Please, someone, anyone, win this thing, but preferably a team that hasn’t lost to anyone from the MAC.

Big Ten
Iowa’s loss to Indiana (Indiana!) this past weekend probably wrecks the chances of everyone in the Legends division qualifying. Unfortunately, I still don’t have Indiana getting to 6-6, so Wisconsin remains the only eligible team from the Leaders. Minnesota can thank their incredibly soft out-of-conference scheduling for getting them to the new Car Care Bowl despite going 2-6 in Big Ten play.

Pac-12
The infighting in the conference wrecks their chances of getting two BCS teams, unless Stanford or Oregon State upset Oregon in the next few weeks. Otherwise, I actually have Arizona as a 7-5 team with nowhere to go. The projections for at-large teams in other bowls is a total crapshoot until officials of the affected bowls start talking about who they’re looking at (which one of the reason I start looking for news), so for now I’m shipping the Wildcats off to Shreveport to make up for a lack of ACC teams.

SEC
Thanks to generous out-of-conference schedules and some really awful teams at the bottom of the conference, the SEC should get 5 teams to the 10-win mark this year. I had to put 10-2 LSU in the Cotton over 9-3 Texas A&M, but that could still change in the coming weeks. I also have Tennessee limping to 6-6 ad a Liberty Bowl bid, though they could also go to the Compass Bowl.

Everyone Else
It does look like we will avert the shortage of teams catastrophe. It just seems to “work out” every year, but someday it probably won’t. As much as I like doing these projections, frankly if we had 5 less bowls I don’t think anyone would notice. Also, with Boise not making the BCS, this pushes 6-6 New Mexico out of the Mountain West affiliated bowls. Along with 6-6 Western Michigan, they could be the only two eligible teams sitting at home this year.

As usual, things will look different next week. After the excitement of last weekend, the marquee game for the top teams this weekend will be Alabama-Texas A&M. But, hey, more on that later in the week.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (ABC): It’s not unprecedented for Iowa State to pull off an upset of this magnitude, but that doesn’t make it any less unlikely.
  • Temple @ Louisville (ABC): Can Louisville remain the Big East’s only somewhat competent team? Probably.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Mississippi State’s 15th ranked scoring defense should continue to suffer against the second team on its schedule capable of scoring points.
  • Missouri @ Florida (ESPN2): The Gators would probably have to turn the ball over, like, twelve times to lose to this bunch of Tigers.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Vandy can, and should, put itself in a very good position to make it a bowl game for a second consecutive season. How many times have the Commodores done that, though? None.
  • Houston @ East Carolina (FSN): Neither of these teams can play defense to save their lives, but Houston’s offense is slightly more proficient and should get them the victory in the end.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSS): I keep forgetting that Air Force actually lost to Navy last month and so this will not decide the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy. Nonetheless, Army is still not any position to win it themselves.
  • Michigan @ Minnesota (BTN): Time for more wacky Big Ten hijinks! Whee! Michigan probably wins.
  • Troy @ Tennessee (SEC/FSN): Tennessee isn’t bad enough to lose to Troy, are they? Probably not.
  • Tulsa @ Arkansas (SEC): A few years ago, the Golden Hurricane liked to sling the ball all over the place, but these days they’re 9th in rushing and only 86th in passing. I realize that Arkansas is just plan not very good but I still find it exceedingly difficult to pick against them.

12:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Maryland (ACC): Maryland is playing a linebacker at QB this week, but our defense has had the unfortunate tendency to make opposing quarterbacks look several times more competent than they actually are. Maryland also sports a pretty good rushing defense, the likes of which have given us fits this season.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State should be able to regroup after a devastating, last-minute loss to UNC last weekend.

2:00: Stanford @ Colorado (FX): If you’re the sort of person who likes disaster based reality TV shows, then this will be the football game for you.

3:00: Texas Christian @ West Virginia (FOX): WVU looks to get back on the right side of the ledger, after going 0-2 in their last two games. The main thing both those games was playings teams that aren’t awful at defense. TCU isn’t either, but if the Mountaineers can get any sort of offensive foothold at all they should prevail.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Georgia (CBS): UGA won’t need six turnovers to beat Ole Miss.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN2): Nebraska, probably? It’s the Big Ten, so we’re pretty much just guessing at this point.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (ABC/ESPN2): When was the last time TTU was favored against Texas? It has to have been awhile. Though in the Big 12, giving a team seven points is basically betting they’re going to get the ball last. Nonetheless, I think the Red Raiders can pull it off.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN): There are no certainties in the Big Ten, other than that Ohio State will find the most excruciating ways to win, such that it continues to make the rest of the conference look bad. If you’re not sure what I mean, the usual conversation goes something like this: “Ohio State is clearly the best team in the Big Ten.” “Yeah, but they’re not eligible for the title! And they only beat the Indiana schools by a combined 10 points!” “Well, that just makes everyone else look even worse, doesn’t it?”
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (ESPNU): Speaking of Purdue, they lost by 16 to Minnesota last week. Whoops! They’ll probably lose to Penn State, too.
  • Kansas @ Baylor (FSN): Kansas is Baylor’s first, and perhaps best, hope for a Big 12 victory this season.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Navy (CBSS): Navy should be able to lock-up a trip to San Francisco with ease.
  • Iowa @ Indiana (BTN): Reminder: Iowa has a .500 record in the year so far, including two Big Ten wins, and has the nation’s 107th ranked scoring offense. Big Ten Football! Feel the excitement! They should probably still win, though if their defense has an off day against the Hoosiers there should be no way they can keep up.
  • Boston College @ Wake Forest (ACC): I’m going with Wake since they managed to actually beat Army this year.

7:00:

  • Oregon @ Southern California (FOX): USC picked the wrong time to fall asleep on defense last week. If they do the same again here, this game will over by halftime. That said, I think USC will be able to keep up, at least for a bit, but Oregon should pull away in the second half.
  • Clemson @ Duke (ESPN2): Duke lost 48-7 to FSU last weekend, except similar here.
  • Connecticut @ South Florida (ESPNU): This is a matchup of the two worst teams in the Big East. Remember, Temple is in the Big East again. Yeah.
  • Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (CBSS): This is probably the second most compelling game on if Oregon gets up on USC by like 4 touchdowns before the next set of games start. Except for a slip-up against Tulane, both of these teams have marched through C-USA without meeting much resistance. Nonetheless, UCF should prevail.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ABC): Kansas State is pretty darn good. Oklahoma State is currently one of the best two-loss teams in the country, but they’re probably about to become the best three loss team.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): It’s a night game in Baton Rouge. That is usually enough for the Tigers, but it probably won’t be against this juggernaut of a football team. Alabama is actually competent offensively, and the first team to 14 points could well win this game. With the right combination of luck, we know LSU can prevail (see: last year’s regular season matchup), but I think Alabama will work diligent to make sure that on this night, luck won’t matter.

10:30:

  • Arizona State @ Oregon State (ESPN2): I got it in my head last weekend that I actually liked Arizona State to win the Pac-12 South, but I keep forgetting that they actually lost to UCLA. Whoops. Anyway, I actually still like them against the Beavers simply because the Sun Devils will be the best team they’ve played so far this year.
  • San Diego State @ Boise State (CBSS): Boise State continues its quest for a darkhorse run at a BCS game, which should make for good enough reason to find the CBS Sports Network in and of itself. If it doesn’t, or you hate the blue turf, then it’s a good enough reason to bring up the GameTracker or some such. I think the Broncos will win, but this is their stiffest test since their opener.

Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 3

It’s that time again. Predictions are up at the usual place. Things have changed a bit since the first two weeks. Heading into the final month of the season, most teams only have four games left and the picture starts to become clearer for many teams in hovering the 5 to 7 win mark. Of course, we also have new complications due to thinks like Oklahoma and USC losing again. So let’s start with the BCS.

BCS
Like many other prognosticators, I still have Alabama and Oregon as my #1 and #2. Oregon’s schedule (plus the Pac-12 title game) should help them out in the computers. Notre Dame should slip in the machine rankings over the final weeks of the season, especially if USC loses again (which they will at least once). Kansas State will be a tougher nut to crack, but Oregon will remain #2 in both human polls if they win out, and again, they have the benefit of playing a 13th game. (Though it is worth noting the Pac-12 title game and Kansas State will both be on Saturday, December 1, so there isn’t a “one of the teams didn’t play the past week” advantage.)

Florida may have actually improved their chances of going to a BCS game by missing out on the SEC title game. I still think they will win out, including a win over my predicted ACC champion Florida State. If Florida only has one loss and does not play in the SEC title game (thus meaning they won’t lose to Alabama), I still like them to go to the Sugar.

The Rose Bowl is a bigger question. Nebraska’s win over Michigan this past weekend makes them the Big Ten frontrunners, so I’ll put them in the Rose. However, with an at-least two-loss Nebraska there, does the Rose gain anything by taking Notre Dame, or will they defer to the Fiesta and pick-up Oklahoma? Nebraska-Oklahoma was once one the biggest rivalries in the sport and the two teams have not played since 2010. Either way, with USC’s loss to Arizona State this weekend, it does not look like there will be a Pac-12 runner up worthy of BCS consideration.

If the Rose does pass on an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame, then they will definitely snapped up by the Fiesta to play a jilted Kansas State. I actually have ND going undefeated now, but if everything breaks as explained above it won’t matter.

New to the predictions this week is Boise State. Boise sits at #19 in the current BCS rankings, three spots away from the promised land provided they don’t lose and finish ahead of the Big Ten champion (which they currently will). Boise is split in the human polls, with the coaches putting them at #14 and Harris at #17. It stands to reason they’ll pick up a couple spots in the Harris poll if they don’t lose, and maybe even pick up a couple more spots in some of the computers (two of which don’t even have them in their top 25’s). Either way, if Boise makes it them they will go to the Orange and Louisville will be in the Sugar.

Possibly even more interesting is what happens if Boise doesn’t make it, however. I’m not entirely sure they will, and I very, very nearly put Clemson in the Sugar. It could happen, especially if they beat a now-depleted South Carolina in their last game of the season. The BCS feels almost like it was counting on always having at least two Big Ten and two SEC teams every year. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and entirely too-many SEC teams at the top of the polls, this creates a logjam of teams near the fringes that could get in.

ACC
FSU is in the driver’s seat of the ACC. Less clear is just who the heck will win the Coastal. I have Miami pulling it off, finally setting up the FSU-Miami ACC title game that the conference bigwigs envisioned all those years ago when they set up the divisions and picked Florida cities for the original title games. Even as title game losers, I like Miami for the Russel Athletic Bowl. Clemson and NC State should follow into the Chick-fil-a and Sun Bowls. I have three Coastal at 6-6, including Virginia Tech, Duke, and probably entirely too optimistically at this point, Georgia Tech. I put those three into the Belk, Independence, and Music City, respectively.

Big 12
I finally have to give up on my dream of Texas playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I project Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to finish ahead of the Longhorns in the conference, which just makes the notion too infeasible at this point. I put TTU in the Cotton, and then the Cowboys into the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Texas is relegated to the Alamo. The Holiday Bowl could be fun again with my projected matchup of West Virginia and Southern Cal. I also have Iowa State and TCU making in at 6-6, but I put Baylor at 4-8.

Big East
Well, Louisville hasn’t lost to a MAC team yet so they’re the Big East frontrunners now. New this week is 6-6 Syracuse sneaking in, but I couldn’t put them into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I have Nebraska going 10-2, but remember, Wisconsin just as easily win the Big Ten title game, which I have them entering at 8-4. Either way, the Badgers may be the only eligible team from the Leaders division that even makes it to 6-6 or better, though Indiana or Purdue could do it, at least in theory. The Legends compensates by getting everyone eligible, even Minnesota, which thanks to a generous schedule can go 2-6 in the Big Ten and still make a bowl.

Pac-12
USC’s loss this past weekend makes it very difficult for me to project them beating Oregon and Notre Dame. I now have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 South. Stanford could finish 9-3 but I don’t think losing to Oregon in November will help their BCS chances. I actually even have Utah sneaking in at 6-6, after upsetting Cal this past weekend.

SEC
I already talked about the very top of the SEC, so let’s focus on the runners up. I don’t have Georgia or South Carolina losing again, except for the former in the SEC title game. Nonetheless, I put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl because South Carolina played there last year. Everything else was pretty much going down the line. I do have Tennessee sneaking at 6-6. Hey, they’ve done it before.

That’s pretty much it for this week. Next week I’ll incorporate news into the projections, which especially helps sort out my guesses for bowls that won’t get their contractually obligated teams (read: the Military and BBVA Compass bowls).

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Tennessee @ South Carolina (ESPN): Well, South Carolina basically went 0-2 in the two most important games of their season. Whoops. Either way, Tennessee should be their ticket back to a healthy winning streak.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ESPN2): Aw what the heck, Northwestern. They actually play offense.
  • Kentucky @ Missouri (ESPNU): I think this will be the time Mizzou gets their first SEC win. Maybe. Probably.
  • Texas @ Kansas (FSN): This game should be a respite for the Longhorns’ shamble-tastic defense.
  • Ball State @ Army (CBSS): Army’s only FBS win so far this year is over Boston College. I foresee it remaining that way.
  • Indiana @ Illinois (BTN): Both these teams are 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-5 on the year. Yet, Indiana seems demonstrably less awful. I’ll take the Hooisers.
  • Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): I actually like Ole Miss in this one.

12:30: North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): I actually like Carolina in this one. UNC, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the lingo.

3:00:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (FX): UCLA has only beaten teams that one would think are probably worse than they are. Arizona State does not seem worse than them. I like the Sun Devils.
  • Brigham Young @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): Well, it’s week 2 of the new defense, and this time against a much more credible offensive threat than Boston College. Considering how middling the BYU offense is, that’s really saying something about BC, but anyway. Another hot topic for the Jackets has been “intensity” – from that of players on the sidelines to the guys on the field. The second half of the BC game definitely had the hallmarks of a team that had “taken their foot off the pedal”, so to speak. Yes, it’s easy to point to the kicking woes, but frankly if this offense were firing on all cylinders they would only need a guy that kicks extra points. Either way, on paper this one is pretty close, so it may come down to thinks like “focus” and “intensity”.

3:30:

  • Texas Tech @ Kansas State (FOX): This is your weekly reminder that Bill Synder is a wizard. K-State could easily lose any of their next five games, but a loss in any one would be a massive upset at this point.
  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): This figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle. Florida’s best offense really is their defense. Last week against South Carolina, all their touchdown drives started deep in South Carolina’s territory off of turnovers. This does not figure to be an every game occurrence for the Gators, but the defense really is that suffocating. If UGA can get to 21 points I actually like their chances of winning, but I don’t really see how that can happen.
  • Southern California @ Arizona (ABC/ESPN2): USC-Oregon is next week. Oregon plays Colorado this week, so they can maybe afford to not worry about that too much, but the Wildcats are just competent enough for the Trojans to worry about. Don’t get me wrong, it should still be a walk-over for them, but they will need to at least pay attention.
  • Michigan State @ Wisconsin (ABC/ESPN2): I guess Wisconsin is sort-of kind-of good? At least by the standards of this year’s Big Ten?
  • Duke @ Florida State (ESPNU): Duke may be able to keep up for a little while due to their passing offense, but as I’ve said elsewhere, their defense is still pretty much made up of the kind of guys that Duke can recruit. FSU should cruise to a win.
  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FSN): OSU has basically no defense (like, you know, almost everyone else in the Big 12) but the usual “hope your opponent can’t keep up” strategy should be sufficient against TCU.
  • Boise State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Boise State’s looking a little healthier against the bottom dwellers of the Mountain West. SDSU next week should provide a challenge, but really the biggest game for them will be the game at Nevada the last week of the season. Let’s hope they’re not looking ahead like I am.
  • Purdue @ Minnesota (BTN): Purdue and Minnesota are basically fighting to get one last bowl bid for the Big Ten. Of course, there’s still enough games left neither of them could make it. Since the start of Big Ten play, Minnesota has lost three straight, and scored 13 points in all three. Purdue has scored, er, 13, 14, and 22. I have Minnesota winning, but that’s just a wild guess.

5:30: Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): This game is thoroughly irrelevant. Sure, Ohio State can try for the AP poll win, but they won’t get it due to their lackluster results the past couple weeks and because they’re not better than any of the other candidates, and more importantly, won’t get a chance to play them. Penn State just isn’t really very good. At least when they’re playing teams that aren’t each other they affect the bigger picture in some way but other than it’s hard to come up with a reason to care about this contest if you’re not a fan of either team. Also, the Buckeyes should win, and I still think if that Ohio State pulls off the undefeated season Terry Bowden should invent a traveling trophy for “undefeated teams in probation” and send it to Urban Meyer.

7:00:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechicanical @ Auburn (ESPNU): Auburn is just awful. TAMU rolls.
  • Baylor @ Iowa State (FSN): Baylor has literally the worse scoring defense in the country. Can Iowa State exploit it? Well, yes, but likely not often enough.
  • Massachusetts @ Vanderbilt (SEC/FSN): They gotta have else on TV, I guess. Vandy.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Oklahoma (ABC): Well, this is the game of the week. I like Oklahoma here but if Notre Dame wins somehow (defense is good, but who’s the quarterback?) I like their chances for the rest of the season.
  • Michigan @ Nebraska (ESPN2): Misdirected passes ahoy! I’ll go with the Huskers.
  • Central Florida @ Marshall (CBSS): UCF is pretty much going all-in on this year, so it would behoove them to not suffer a letdown against the Thundering Hood.

8:30: Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): Well, getting to 7-0 was fun I’m sure, but this isn’t exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object here. The Tide should roll.