Yearly Archives: 2012

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Ohio State (ABC): Ohio State has, eventually, dispensed with every Big Ten challenger in their way. I’ve said it all year, but there really ought to be a Terry Bowden Trophy for teams on probation that go undefeated, because I think the Buckeyes would get it if it existed.
  • Tulsa @ Southern Methodist (FX): SMU had glimpses of a promising season several times this year, but it looks as though the dream will die against the Golden Hurricane.
  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (ESPN): To Hell With Georgia.
  • Rutgers @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): I agree with most of the snarky tweets from Friday that lament the loss of the Backyard Brawl. Rutgers should win, I guess?
  • Virginia @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): It’s almost unbelievable that VPI needs to win this game to go 6-6. And they should win, but UVA has been feisty a few times this year.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Central Florida (FSN): It’s funny that UCF is basically doing the opposite of what Miami did. Instead of trying appease the NCAA, it’s like George O’Leary just said “eff it” and go for a bowl game and conference title. Well, UAB almost certainly isn’t going to stop them.
  • Illinois @ Northwestern (BTN): Illinois is a lot like Cal in several ways. One of the first ways that comes to mind for me is that in academic circles Illinois usually UIUC and Cal is usually just Berkeley. They also have in common that they’ve fallen behind an in-state, also notable private school rival.
  • Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): I’m not sure I would’ve guessed that Joker Philips would be the coach still on the sideline for this one, even if this is his last game. Either way, Tennessee should win, but that’s not something that’s gone well for them this year.
  • Miami @ Duke (ACC): Miami should win, but well, I’ve been wrong before.

2:30: Baylor vs. Texas Tech (@Arlington, TX; FOX): Baylor had an Earth-shattering upset of K-State last weekend, but nonetheless they need to beat either TTU or Oklahoma State to get to 6 wins. I like their chances for that with Texas Tech better than with Oklahoma State.

3:00:

  • Oregon @ Oregon State (Pac-12): This game will not be available for many of you, which is just a crime really. This game should be good viewing. I think Oregon will still win but the Civil War is always good viewing, regardless how the season is going for either.
  • Maryland @ North Carolina (ACC): Well, UNC should win. Given your other options I can’t really recommend that you watch this.

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Alabama (CBS): Well, unless, as I said in my bowl predictions, Gene Chizik is preparing to unleash the greatest practical joke in the history of the state of Alabama, this one is in the bag for the Tide.
  • Florida @ Florida State (ABC): Well, this won’t be appointment viewing probably, but it will be important. FSU needs this win badly to even be in consideration in the national title discussion. I actually like their chances, really. Florida basically stopped playing offense about two months ago, relying entirely in defense and special teams to general any semblance of offensive output. FSU, meanwhile, can actually move the ball and I think that will be the difference in this game.
  • Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (ESPN): Offense will not be the issue in this one. Instead, it’s OU with the advantage, in the sense they’re one of the few Big 12 teams that bothers to play any defense at all.
  • Wisconsin @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): I think Wisconsin can beat Penn State, which would at least give the Big Ten the ability to say teams on probation didn’t finish #1 and #2 in the Leaders. (Still had to look that up by the way.)
  • Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): I just don’t see how Wake can beat this edition of the Commdores.
  • Tulane @ Houston (FSN): Having the 100th ranked scoring offense and 118th ranked scoring defense is not a recipe for success, which explains why the Green Wave are not having any.
  • Michigan State @ Minnesota (BTN): Well, there are some other traditional Big Ten games left, thankfully. Anyway, I like Sparty’s chances.

6:30: Stanford @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Why watch this now when you can watch the same game from Palo Alto next weekend?

7:00:

  • Missouri @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN2): TAMU should win this one pretty easily, and it could well clinch a Heisman for Johnny Football.
  • Mississippi State @ Mississippi (ESPNU): It’s hard to see how Ole Miss will keep up with their rivals offensively. I think the Bulldogs can get this one.

7:15: South Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Clemson, really, has been tested only once all year (against FSU) and they failed. South Carolina had a brutal October, and while they got the win over UGA, they then lost to LSU and Florida, thus playing themselves out of the SEC East race. So really, it’s hard to say. Clemson does have all their offensive weapons, which has generally led me to favor them over the at-times piecemeal Gamecock attack (especially minus Marcus Lattimore). That said, the Gamecocks still have an excellent defensive line, so I consider this one basically even. Still leaning slightly for the Tigers though.

8:00: Notre Dame @ Southern California (ABC): After USC’s performance against UCLA last weekend, it’s hard to really see how they will be able to do anything against Notre Dame’s defense. I think this one will mostly come down to whether the Domers are able to handle the enormous presure and expectations. On the flip side, it may help them that USC will almost has to be reminded that back in August they were the ones supposed to be going into this game playing for a national title, not ND, thus reminding the Trojans how everything in this season has gone wrong.

10:30: Louisiana Tech @ San Jose State (ESPN2): Ah, a nice WACtion nightcap. Not many more of these! I like LaTech here.

Anyway, I hope everyone had a great Turkey Day, and may your team of choice win on this day. Unless you’re a Georgia fan.

    Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 6

    Okay, it’s that time again folks. The picture is starting to get clearer, or it would be, expect it seems to have decided to actually get cloudier if anything as we’re now only two weekends away from the end of the season and there is still a very real chance we won’t have enough teams.

    However, as usual, let’s start at the opposite end of the spectrum. The predictions are, as per usual, here.

    BCS
    Oregon losing to Stanford had all sorts of repercussions for the BCS bowls, and not just at the very top.

    Starting with the National Championship Game, I’ve gone ahead and matched Notre Dame and Alabama. Of course, this is beset with all sorts of caveats. The number of games that could impact #1 and #2 before the end of the season are almost too numerous to list.

    #1 is easy, though, given the following: if Notre Dame beats Southern Cal this weekend in Los Angeles, the Irish will make their first ever appearance in the national title game. If Notre Dame loses, well, all hell breaks loose. The specter of another SEC-SEC matchup looms extremely large. But for now, let’s go with what happens if Notre Dame wins.

    Alabama will not lose to Auburn this weekend. I just can’t even entertain the possibility of it happening, unless Gene Chizik is just trying to pull the most epic practical joke in the history of the state of Alabama. An easier explanation is just that Chizik is as awful of a coach as everyone thought he was when Auburn inexplicably hired him away from Iowa State. As for Georgia at #3, well, I think anyone reading this by now knows my positions re: the Bulldogs, but nonetheless they will play Alabama for the SEC title next weekend in Atlanta. Provided neither team loses this weekend, this matchup is currently a play-in game for the national title game.

    Okay, so what happens if the things everyone expects to happen don’t? Well… let’s start with what happens if Notre Dame loses and the eventual SEC champion does not lose this weekend. Sitting at #4 in the BCS standings currently is Florida. If Florida beats Florida State Saturday, then they’re in. If the Gators lose (a very real possibility), then it gets interesting. The remaining 1-loss teams at the top of the standings are Oregon, Kansas State, Stanford, and Florida State. (I skipped LSU and Texas A&M. While they’re still high in the polls, the scenarios for human voters to elevate a 2-loss team to the national title game this year just seem too remote right now.) Oregon has one game remaining against their ranked rival Oregon State. Kansas State plays Texas next weekend, which is good because it is a) next weekend (a win would be fresh in voter’s minds, especially since Oregon will likely not play in the Pac-12 title game) and b) it is against a resurgent and ranked Texas. Also c) K-State still holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma in the Big 12, so they will still be conference champs. Additionally d) the computers still love K-State and they like Texas, so a win over the Longhorns would help them. For these reasons, even if Oregon beats Oregon State, I like the Wildcats to jump the Ducks if Notre Dame and Florida lose. Next up is Stanford, which now controls its own destiny in the Pac-12. They will play UCLA this weekend, and if they win, well, they get to play UCLA again next Saturday. Playing two more games is good, and they did beat the Ducks head-to-head, but they are still 11th in the human polls. Nonetheless, they could be the next up if Oregon and K-State lose. If K-State loses and Oregon doesn’t, that could be an interesting battle. Finally, there’s Florida State. FSU desperately needs the cred they’ll get from the computers if they beat Florida, which will give their computer ranking a chance to catch up to their human ranking (6th and 5th versus 17th, currently). FSU’s schedule and loss to a mediocre NC State are really screwing them over right now. A win over GT in the conference championship game, whether we’re 6-6 or 7-5, would probably be their 3rd or 4th best win of the season behind Florida and Clemson.

    So let’s get back to ND-Bama in the national title game and look at the other bowls. First up will be the Sugar Bowl, seeking a replacement for Alabama. I think it is pretty unlikely the Sugar will take the SEC title game loser, and at this point, considering the hype around TAMU and Johnny Manziel, I think the Sugar will take Texas A&M. Next up is the Fiesta. Kansas State will go here if they beat Texas and don’t wind up back in the title game. And here’s where the ramifications begin. If Oregon beats Oregon State (and, well, maybe even if they don’t), they will likely end up here. Note that this now means there will be two Pac-12 teams in, as I have Stanford winning the league and facing Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar needs another team, and basically will be picking between Oklahoma and Clemson. And this where the ramifications end up: what looked like a great possibility for the ACC until last weekend has been snuffed out, unless Oregon, Kansas State, or Stanford get into the national title game. I just don’t think the Sugar will pick Clemson over the Sooners. This relegates, as expected, the Big East winner (whoever they end up being) to the Orange.

    All that said, man, there’s definitely a certain plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose vibe to Notre Dame and Alabama playing for a national title. As other observers have noted, it’s like we’re back in the 60’s or something.

    Anyway.

    ACC
    Miami announced on Monday that they will, once again, forgo a trip to a postseason college football contest. The ACC will not, under any circumstance, have a team to send to the Military Bowl. If Wake Forest upsets Vanderbilt this weekend, then there could be a team send to the Independence Bowl, but otherwise that’s that. If Clemson doesn’t make the BCS, they are a lock for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. The Russell Athletic Bowl will have its hands tied and probably take NC State. This likely leaves Georgia Tech for the Sun Bowl. If GT does beat UGA, then this could all change, but if we don’t, then El Paso is likely our destination again (even if we qualify under the “UCLA rule”). For the first time in the history of everything (in football, at least) I have put Duke ahead of Virginia Tech and have them going to the Belk Bowl, leaving VPI for the Music City.

    I just want to note up here that I have Georgia Tech playing Southern Cal in the Sun Bowl. To quote James Earl Jones from the widely acclaimed Cold War drama Hunt for Red October, “Mother of God.”

    Big East
    Do I have to? Okay, well, I’m guessing Louisville will still win the league and go to the Orange Bowl, putting Rutgers in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, and then Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl.

    Big Ten
    I project Nebraska to win the Big Ten and head to the Rose Bowl, but that could just as easily be Wisconsin. That said, I do have Michigan in the Capital One Bowl for now, relegating Wisconsin to the Outback. I’ve seen folks saying that Northwestern is probably headed to the Gator, so I went ahead and put them there. I also have Purdue getting in at 6-6, but otherwise the selection order goes pretty much how you’d expect for now.

    Big 12
    With both Oklahoma and K-State BCS bound according to my projections at top, this puts Texas in the Cotton. Since I ran out of teams, I did change my projections to have Baylor beat Texas Tech this weekend so the Bears could get to 6-6. That probably means I should’ve swapped Texas Tech and West Virginia maybe, but I think the Red Raiders will still be okay for the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. (I’m debating shortening that to just “Wings Bowl” but I’m not sure.)

    Pac-12
    The Pac-12 actually was in danger of having more teams than slots until this past weekend. Getting two teams into the BCS means bids for everyone. The question is, out of the remaining teams, who goes to the Alamo Bowl? While it almost certainly has to be Oregon State and UCLA, will the Alamo want a team that just lost its last two games to the same team? In my searching, I found the Holiday Bowl really wants Oregon State over UCLA. I went ahead and swapped them for now but we’ll see again next weekend. In any scenario, I think the two Arizona schools will get picked last, but which one goes to San Francisco and which goes to Albuquerque will probably be determined this weekend. As for the middle, well, the Sun can either pick USC or Washington probably, with the other going to the Las Vegas Bowl.

    SEC
    I think the loser of the SEC title game will probably wind up in the Capital One Bowl, or Texas A&M if they’re still available. If TAMU is still around when the Cotton Bowl comes up, then they are a lock, otherwise it’ll probably be LSU. I’m putting Florida in the Outback Bowl (assuming a loss to Florida State this weekend). I currently have Miss State in the Chick-fil-a Bowl, though I’m not super confident in the Bulldogs over the Gamecocks, but the latter’s final destination likely has a lot to do with how they do against Clemson this weekend. Assuming a loss, I have them in the Gator Bowl. I put Vanderbilt in the Music City, but they would really love it if Missouri or Ole Miss get eligible somehow.

    Everyone Else
    As mentioned above, I ran out of teams, so I put used my “in case of emergency, break glass” team in the form of the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners, putting them in the Independence Bowl. I also have the Military Bowl and the BBVA Compass Bowl as being completely devoid of participants. And this all includes the fudging I did to get Baylor eligible. I had to a fair amount of swapping to make sure that two MAC teams weren’t facing each other in the games, but at this point I really consider myself two teams short.

    Also, in other news, Air Force actually accepted a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl earlier this week, which I guess is a pretty good indication the Mountain West doesn’t have any sort of rules for their bowls. I didn’t really predict that, hence the single asterisk.

    Well, this is a pretty long post, and there’s a fair chance all of this could be bunk after this weekend. So I’ll stop here. Enjoy your Turkey Day, and the weekend guide should go up tomorrow.

    THWG Thought of the Day: 11/20

    Okay, this doesn’t really have anything to do with Georgia (hence why I’m post-dating it), but it does have to do with awesome.


    I think what really makes this for me isn’t that he got the first down, it’s that he broke a tackle!

    I’ve seen jokes about tackle-eligible plays, but unfortunately those doesn’t really work in college, thanks to this rule:

    Eligibility To Touch Legal Forward Pass
    ARTICLE 3. a. Eligibility rules apply during a down when a legal forward pass is thrown.

    1. All Team B players are eligible to touch or catch a pass.
    2. When the ball is snapped, the following Team A players are eligible:
      1. Each lineman who is on the end of his scrimmage line and who is wearing a number other than 50 through 79.

    2. Each back wearing a number other than 50 through 79.

    Half the point of a tackle-eligible play is that you have an otherwise normal offensive lineman with an offensive lineman’s number up there on the end of the line go run a route and not block. It sort of loses part of the deception if #64 the rest of the game suddenly appears on the end of the line as #24. (Note that the NFL allows such a player to report himself “eligible” to the referee before the start of a play, which is why a lot of times when you see teams in their goalline packages you can hear the referee say “number 72 has reported eligible”.)

    This Week in College Football: Week 13

    Georgia Tech coastal division champions? Maryland to the Big Ten? I don’t know about any of that, but what I do know is there’s actual college football being played all week. 

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Tuesday, November 20
    7:00: Akron @ Toledo (ESPN2): Well, Toledo’s been pretty solid this year. Akron, at 1-10, less so.

    Thursday, November 22
    7:30: Texas Christian @ Texas (ESPN): Texas has been on a 4-0 roll after the Disaster in Dallas during the Red River Shootout. TCU can point to their upset of WVU a few weeks ago, but Texas has generally been better over the last few weeks and they appear to be a more solid team at this point in the season. Nonetheless, this will probably still be more interesting than watching the Patriots dismantle the Jets.

    Friday, November 23
    11:00:

    • Syracuse @ Temple (ESPN2): Last one out of the Big East, turn off the lights. That aside, looking at the records of the Big East teams and their stats and trying to discern any noticeable patterns is an exercise in madness. The ‘Cuse should win, but will they? Who knows.
    • Ohio @ Kent State (ESPNU): Some early post-Turkey Day MACtion! Early on, this looked like it could decide the MAC East but Ohio went from undefeated to losing three games this year and Kent State has already clinched. So I’ll have to go with the Golden Flashes.

    12:00: Nebraska @ Iowa (ABC): Iowa’s offense should be declared a federal disaster area at this point. The Huskers should roll.

    2:00: Marshall @ East Carolina (CBSS): This is the Thundering Herd’s last, best change for a bowl game, but I think they’ll probably come up short.

    2:30: Louisiana State @ Arkansas (CBS): While LSU making too close to teams they should dominate makes for sublimely entertaining Les Miles press conferences, I don’t really expect a repeat in this one.

    3:00: Utah @ Colorado (FX): I’m not sure why you’d watch this, but I feel pretty good about the Utes’ chances here.

    3:30:

    • Washington @ Washington State (FOX): We used to make fun of the Apple Cup for featuring two awful teams, but this one will probably be more akin to a train wreck.
    • West Virginia @ Iowa State (ABC): Iowa State is one of the very few Big 12 teams that probably can’t take advantage of WVU’s defense to keep up with them, this finally getting the beleaguered Mountaineers another conference win. That said, the best realignment tweet I’ve seen all day was:

      RT @ericcrawford: RT @joelshaffer2: Word is the Big 12 is in negotiations with the West Virginia defense to join the conference next season
      — Smart Football (@smartfootball) November 20, 2012

    7:00: South Florida @ Cincinnati (ESPN): Cincy should win, but see above for my disclaimer about trying to predict anything related to the Big East.

    10:00: Arizona State @ Arizona (ESPN): The battle for the Territorial Cup has been pretty even these last few years, and that may make this the most entertaining game of the day. I expect the Sun Devils to win, but keep in mind the last three games have all been decided by four points or less. So if you haven’t been watching football day, this might be a good one to unwind to.

    Expect bowl predictions to be up in the next couple days, and the weekend picks column up as per usual on Friday night. Until then, remember, To Hell With Georgia.