Monthly Archives: November 2012

Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 4

Welcome back. The predictions are up, and we’re only three weeks away now from the final set of predictions. I did attempt to search for news, but there’s not much action going on there yet except for a few stray beat writers and the rest of the Internet’s so-called “predictions”. Pschaw.

A quick note on methodology: remember, this is not a snapshot, but rather predictions on where teams will be at the end of the season. Hence why we’ve got Alabama and Oregon in the title game.

Quick note before we begin: with their 24-17 victory over Florida Atlantic, Navy reached the 6 win mark and accepted a bid to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

BCS
Let’s start at the top. I am still projecting Oregon, if they win out, to pass Kansas State in the BCS. I doubt at this point they will actually completely pass Kansas State in the computers, but rather just gain enough ground to let their #2 ranking in both human polls buoy them to the top.

Other than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State, at-large locks for BCS bids are likely Florida (provided Georgia doesn’t lose to Auburn this weekend and they do lose to Alabama in the SEC title game), Florida State (provided they win the ACC title game, or with an at-large bid assured if they beat Florida), Oklahoma (if they win out). I am still agreeing with some other analysts that the Rose will play nice and take Oklahoma, which they will probably be more inclined to do if Nebraska is the Big Ten’s champion. This would allow the Fiesta to match Notre Dame against Kansas State. At this point, if Florida does not lose to Florida State (or anyone else), they will likely head to the Sugar Bowl as Alabama’s replacement. If they do stumble, then you could see Georgia or South Carolina there.

Louisville, or whoever bothers to win the Big East, is the last automatic qualifier. This leaves a mess for the last possible at-large spot. As noted last week, Boise State was in position to do this by finishing ahead of Nebraska in the BCS standings, but they lost to San Diego State. There is a two-team-per-conference limit, so none of the various SEC teams littering the top 14 can qualify. A strong candidate, if everything were to be done today, would be Oregon State, but I have them losing twice to end up at 9-3. I also have Stanford losing to Oregon, putting them at 9-3. USC could have as many as five losses at this point if they end up playing in the Pac-12 title game. This leaves only one potential 1 or 2 loss team: Clemson. Provided Clemson doesn’t pull a Clemson against Maryland or NC State, they will head into their game against South Carolina at 10-1. If they win, they will wrap up an at-large bid. At this point, given the rest of my projections, even if they lose to the Gamecocks they will still be 10-2 and more palatable than, say, a 10-2 Rutgers. For those of keeping score at home, yes, this would be the first time ever the ACC has sent two teams to the BCS. They would likely be selected by the Sugar, leaving Louisville to play FSU in the Orange.

ACC
With Clemson off to the promised land, this leaves the rest of the ACC’s bowl partners in rather unenviable positions. The Chick-fil-a would almost certainly go with an 8-4/5 Miami, and the Russell Athletic Bowl snapping up NC State. I have no other ACC teams projected to finish with winning records, with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finishing 6-6. (Well, UNC should finish 8-4, but they’re on sanctions.) And even then, that’s with a rather heavy dose of optimism on my part, because I’m sure not crazy about our chances against Carolina this weekend. Either way, I’m sending VPI to the Sun, us to the Belk, and Duke to the Music City.

Big 12
I was able to put Texas back into the Cotton Bowl, but I couldn’t quite arrange things to put Texas A&M into the game as well. I also put Texas Tech into the Alamo over Oklahoma State, but everything else proceeds in order from there. In a rarity, the Big 12 will actually have enough teams, even with two of them going to the BCS.

Big East
Please, someone, anyone, win this thing, but preferably a team that hasn’t lost to anyone from the MAC.

Big Ten
Iowa’s loss to Indiana (Indiana!) this past weekend probably wrecks the chances of everyone in the Legends division qualifying. Unfortunately, I still don’t have Indiana getting to 6-6, so Wisconsin remains the only eligible team from the Leaders. Minnesota can thank their incredibly soft out-of-conference scheduling for getting them to the new Car Care Bowl despite going 2-6 in Big Ten play.

Pac-12
The infighting in the conference wrecks their chances of getting two BCS teams, unless Stanford or Oregon State upset Oregon in the next few weeks. Otherwise, I actually have Arizona as a 7-5 team with nowhere to go. The projections for at-large teams in other bowls is a total crapshoot until officials of the affected bowls start talking about who they’re looking at (which one of the reason I start looking for news), so for now I’m shipping the Wildcats off to Shreveport to make up for a lack of ACC teams.

SEC
Thanks to generous out-of-conference schedules and some really awful teams at the bottom of the conference, the SEC should get 5 teams to the 10-win mark this year. I had to put 10-2 LSU in the Cotton over 9-3 Texas A&M, but that could still change in the coming weeks. I also have Tennessee limping to 6-6 ad a Liberty Bowl bid, though they could also go to the Compass Bowl.

Everyone Else
It does look like we will avert the shortage of teams catastrophe. It just seems to “work out” every year, but someday it probably won’t. As much as I like doing these projections, frankly if we had 5 less bowls I don’t think anyone would notice. Also, with Boise not making the BCS, this pushes 6-6 New Mexico out of the Mountain West affiliated bowls. Along with 6-6 Western Michigan, they could be the only two eligible teams sitting at home this year.

As usual, things will look different next week. After the excitement of last weekend, the marquee game for the top teams this weekend will be Alabama-Texas A&M. But, hey, more on that later in the week.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (ABC): It’s not unprecedented for Iowa State to pull off an upset of this magnitude, but that doesn’t make it any less unlikely.
  • Temple @ Louisville (ABC): Can Louisville remain the Big East’s only somewhat competent team? Probably.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Mississippi State’s 15th ranked scoring defense should continue to suffer against the second team on its schedule capable of scoring points.
  • Missouri @ Florida (ESPN2): The Gators would probably have to turn the ball over, like, twelve times to lose to this bunch of Tigers.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Vandy can, and should, put itself in a very good position to make it a bowl game for a second consecutive season. How many times have the Commodores done that, though? None.
  • Houston @ East Carolina (FSN): Neither of these teams can play defense to save their lives, but Houston’s offense is slightly more proficient and should get them the victory in the end.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSS): I keep forgetting that Air Force actually lost to Navy last month and so this will not decide the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy. Nonetheless, Army is still not any position to win it themselves.
  • Michigan @ Minnesota (BTN): Time for more wacky Big Ten hijinks! Whee! Michigan probably wins.
  • Troy @ Tennessee (SEC/FSN): Tennessee isn’t bad enough to lose to Troy, are they? Probably not.
  • Tulsa @ Arkansas (SEC): A few years ago, the Golden Hurricane liked to sling the ball all over the place, but these days they’re 9th in rushing and only 86th in passing. I realize that Arkansas is just plan not very good but I still find it exceedingly difficult to pick against them.

12:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Maryland (ACC): Maryland is playing a linebacker at QB this week, but our defense has had the unfortunate tendency to make opposing quarterbacks look several times more competent than they actually are. Maryland also sports a pretty good rushing defense, the likes of which have given us fits this season.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State should be able to regroup after a devastating, last-minute loss to UNC last weekend.

2:00: Stanford @ Colorado (FX): If you’re the sort of person who likes disaster based reality TV shows, then this will be the football game for you.

3:00: Texas Christian @ West Virginia (FOX): WVU looks to get back on the right side of the ledger, after going 0-2 in their last two games. The main thing both those games was playings teams that aren’t awful at defense. TCU isn’t either, but if the Mountaineers can get any sort of offensive foothold at all they should prevail.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Georgia (CBS): UGA won’t need six turnovers to beat Ole Miss.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN2): Nebraska, probably? It’s the Big Ten, so we’re pretty much just guessing at this point.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (ABC/ESPN2): When was the last time TTU was favored against Texas? It has to have been awhile. Though in the Big 12, giving a team seven points is basically betting they’re going to get the ball last. Nonetheless, I think the Red Raiders can pull it off.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN): There are no certainties in the Big Ten, other than that Ohio State will find the most excruciating ways to win, such that it continues to make the rest of the conference look bad. If you’re not sure what I mean, the usual conversation goes something like this: “Ohio State is clearly the best team in the Big Ten.” “Yeah, but they’re not eligible for the title! And they only beat the Indiana schools by a combined 10 points!” “Well, that just makes everyone else look even worse, doesn’t it?”
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (ESPNU): Speaking of Purdue, they lost by 16 to Minnesota last week. Whoops! They’ll probably lose to Penn State, too.
  • Kansas @ Baylor (FSN): Kansas is Baylor’s first, and perhaps best, hope for a Big 12 victory this season.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Navy (CBSS): Navy should be able to lock-up a trip to San Francisco with ease.
  • Iowa @ Indiana (BTN): Reminder: Iowa has a .500 record in the year so far, including two Big Ten wins, and has the nation’s 107th ranked scoring offense. Big Ten Football! Feel the excitement! They should probably still win, though if their defense has an off day against the Hoosiers there should be no way they can keep up.
  • Boston College @ Wake Forest (ACC): I’m going with Wake since they managed to actually beat Army this year.

7:00:

  • Oregon @ Southern California (FOX): USC picked the wrong time to fall asleep on defense last week. If they do the same again here, this game will over by halftime. That said, I think USC will be able to keep up, at least for a bit, but Oregon should pull away in the second half.
  • Clemson @ Duke (ESPN2): Duke lost 48-7 to FSU last weekend, except similar here.
  • Connecticut @ South Florida (ESPNU): This is a matchup of the two worst teams in the Big East. Remember, Temple is in the Big East again. Yeah.
  • Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (CBSS): This is probably the second most compelling game on if Oregon gets up on USC by like 4 touchdowns before the next set of games start. Except for a slip-up against Tulane, both of these teams have marched through C-USA without meeting much resistance. Nonetheless, UCF should prevail.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ABC): Kansas State is pretty darn good. Oklahoma State is currently one of the best two-loss teams in the country, but they’re probably about to become the best three loss team.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): It’s a night game in Baton Rouge. That is usually enough for the Tigers, but it probably won’t be against this juggernaut of a football team. Alabama is actually competent offensively, and the first team to 14 points could well win this game. With the right combination of luck, we know LSU can prevail (see: last year’s regular season matchup), but I think Alabama will work diligent to make sure that on this night, luck won’t matter.

10:30:

  • Arizona State @ Oregon State (ESPN2): I got it in my head last weekend that I actually liked Arizona State to win the Pac-12 South, but I keep forgetting that they actually lost to UCLA. Whoops. Anyway, I actually still like them against the Beavers simply because the Sun Devils will be the best team they’ve played so far this year.
  • San Diego State @ Boise State (CBSS): Boise State continues its quest for a darkhorse run at a BCS game, which should make for good enough reason to find the CBS Sports Network in and of itself. If it doesn’t, or you hate the blue turf, then it’s a good enough reason to bring up the GameTracker or some such. I think the Broncos will win, but this is their stiffest test since their opener.