Yearly Archives: 2011

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 1

I’m so busy right now that I will just copy my post from last year and change the URL.

Ordinarily, I use the first post of the year to go through my process and my thoughts on the individual bowls.

I won’t do that here, though, for two reasons.
1. I am really busy right now.
2. I have no idea what is going on.

Hopefully I’ll have something more substantive for week 2. In the meantime, enjoy.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Baylor @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FX): Expect this one to be high scoring, but in the end, Baylor plays even less defense than TAMU. I don’t think Robert Griffin III will be enough.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (ESPN): Sparty’s played two non-cupckaes this year: Notre Dame and Ohio State, and scored a combined 23 points in those games. Michigan’s defense probably isn’t as good as either, but it will probably still be enough for the Michigan offense to do its thing.
  • Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Our first complete mismatch of the day, this will probably be a massacre.
  • Utah @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Losing 34-10 to Rutgers probably wasn’t quite how Pitt planned on this season going. Except for their demolition of BYU, however, Utah has lost to every team they’ve played with a pulse this year.
  • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State will probably win this like 13-3, but they will win.
  • South Carolina @ Mississippi State (SEC): The Dan Mullen death machine hasn’t quite gotten into gear this year, considering they only beat hapless UAB 21-3. South Carolina should win.

12:30: Miami @ North Carolina (ACC): Miami couldn’t quite hold on against VPI. That may well translate into them getting blown away by UNC.

3:00: Florida State @ Duke (ACC): Yes, FSU couldn’t handle the traditional ACC doormat they played last week. They will handle Duke.

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Tennessee (CBS): Speaking of SEC death machine, this one could get ugly.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas (ABC/ESPN): I’ll parrot the conventional wisdom here. Texas’s green secondary got repeatedly and thoroughly burned against a very good passing attack last week against Oklahoma. Now, they get the nation’s best passing attack. Yeah, uh….
  • Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN/ABC): If Braxton Miller plays, OSU has a shot and I think they’ll win. If not, they don’t. That simple.
  • Central Florida @ Southern Methodist (FSN): UCF has been up and down this season, but USM has been pretty consistent except for an inexplicable loss to Marshall. I like the Golden Eagles here.
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (ESPNU): Fact: Georgia Tech has 1 win in Charlottesville since 1990, and that came 2 years ago. Hopefully that will motivate Tech to do a little better this time around, as the effort against Maryland was lacking. Tevin Washington has gone from the nation’s most efficient passer to not being able to find his receivers in a sort of bad flashback to last year’s offense. Our defense is just plain bad against the run at this point – other than the ineptitude of their QBs, Maryland simply also had no reason to throw against this defense.
    UVA to this point has not looked that great. But, they have a big and capable offensive line that can open up running lanes – Tech will have to work especially hard to get, and this is key, maintain a lead this weekend.

6:00: Alabama @ Mississippi (ESPN2): This is the second of the predicted blowouts of the day. This may be a blowout in the sense that Alabama scores 31 but Ole Miss scores 0 and ends up with negative total yards of offense.

7:00:

  • Florida @ Auburn (ESPN): Freshman starting quarterbacks are not really a recipe for success in any conference,
  • Kansas State @ Texas Tech (FSN): K-State is easily the most surprising 5-0 team in the country, as they should have at least two losses by now. They should beat TTU anyway, which leads to a difficult decision. But, given no records about these two teams, I probably would’ve picked the purple cats anyway.
  • Clemson @ Maryland (ESPNU): Unless Clemson really Clemsons this one up (and it’s happened before, against Maryland even (see: 2009)!) this should be a rout.
  • Northwestern @ Iowa (BTN): Iowa does well against teams without very good defenses, so despite Dan Persa’s best efforts this probably won’t go well for NU.
  • Georgia @ Vanderbilt (SEC): This is a reasonably competent version of Vandy, but it probably won’t be enough for them to be more competent than UGA.

7:30: Stanford @ Washington State (Versus): Though this version of Wazzou is not completely terrible, they did allow 42 to SDSU and 25 to bumbling UCLA. Expect the Cardinal to try to beat the combined score.

8:00: Alabama-Birmingham @ Tulsa (CBSS): UAB is 120th (i.e., last) in the country in points scored and 96th in points against. This is not a winning combination, to say the least. Tulsa should… argh trying to think of something to say other than “blow them away”.

9:15: Oklahoma @ Kansas (ESPN2): And here’s top-3 blowout number 3. This Week In Schadenfreude is always great, but this edition contained this gem:

There’s actually a weird brand of Stockholm Syndrome going on on the KU boards, with several chipper folks envisioning wins later in the year because of things like this:

GT is a legit team and we hung with them for a half.

Georgia Tech put up 768 yards! Kansas fans must be the most tolerant in the country.

OU rolls.

10:15: Arizona State @ Oregon (ESPN): And, finally, a legit Pac-12 nightcap. Oregon should still win of course – and Autzen should be a madhouse on a Saturday night – but Arizona State is at least capable of making it interesting.

Okay, with the BCS coming out this week the bowl predictions should be out next Monday for reals. Until then…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

Well, I really hope you didn’t take any of my “advice” from last week. Anyway, back to winners/losers.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): It’s the Red River Shootout and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Texas has shown signs of an offensive rejuvenation, but I don’t think it will be enough against the Sooners.
  • Minnesota @ Purdue (ESPN):

    Purdue should win.

  • Louisville @ North Carolina (ESPN2): Carolina responded well to their first loss of the season by taking care of business against ECU. Louisville lost to Marshall last week. I think you can infer the rest.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama-Birmingham (FSN): Things haven’t quite gone to plan for Dan Mullen and Co. They should get a shot in the arm against the 0-4 Blazers, though.
  • Maryland @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): Oy, where to begin? Well, first, let’s discount those last two touchdowns against NCSU – both were freak plays. That said, against a better opponent we would have lost that game. Tech allowed 195 yards rushing to a team that averages less than 100 yards per game. This defense still has many, many, questions and will be weakened by the loss of 2 of their top 4 linebackers.
    Other than their week 1 win against Miami, the Terps haven’t had much to show for this season, probably now mostly remembered for a 38-7 loss to Temple. The true talent of this team is probably somewhere in between, and Tech’s tendency to play down to their competition makes this a very dangerous game.
  • Kentucky @ South Carolina (SEC): I don’t think it’s going to matter which QB Spurrier throws out there this week, Kentucky just isn’t very good this year.

12:30: Florida State @ Wake Forest (ACC): If E.J. Manuel is back this weekend, then Seminoles win easily. Well, they should win otherweise as well, but it will probably be a lot closer.

3:00: Boston College @ Clemson (ACC/FSN): BC: still looking to break that elusive 20-point barrier. They probably won’t against suddenly potent Clemson.

3:30:

  • Florida @ Louisiana State (CBS): The only saving grace for Florida might be that this is an afternoon game and not a night one, which is really only conceivable way the situation could be worse for their trio of freshman quarterbacks.
  • Air Force @ Notre Dame (NBC): I think Air Force will keep it close but that ND will probably prevail in the end.
  • Iowa @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN): I’ll take Iowa here, because they actually seem capable of playing offense.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN/ABC): It’s the “readjusted expectations” bowl! I think the Hokies will be out for blood after last weekend, though.
  • Missouri @ Kansas State (ABC): It feels weird to say that K-State beating Baylor is one of the bigger upsets of the year, but here we are. Still, though, Missouri has lost to a whole spectrum of teams, so I will take a chance on the Wildcats here.
  • Pittsburgh @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Other than being an abomination against offensive football, last week’s Rutgers-Syrcause game as pretty entertaining. The same probably won’t be able to be said about this one as the Panthers should roll.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Navy (CBSS): Watch out, Navy, USM is pretty a pretty solid team. I still like the Midshipmen here though.

7:00:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Texas Tech (FX): I don’t think TAMU will need to worry about blowing a 2nd half lead here.
  • Auburn @ Arkansas (ESPN): I think Arkansas will be able to take this one from the outset.
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (ESPN2): I actually have no idea who will win this. Neither team boasts any real upset losses or unexpected wins, so it’s hard to say what’ll go down here. So, when in doubt: pick the home team. Especially in college football.
  • Iowa State @ Baylor (FSN): Iowa State’s defense is not so hot. Neither is Baylor’s, but if this turns into a shootout, my money is on the Fighting Robert Griffin the Thirds.
  • Vanderbilt @ Alabama (ESPNU): Anything less than a shutout will probably be disappointing for the Tide.
  • East Carolina @ Houston (CBSS): ECU’s played a killer non-conference schedule, going 0-3 against South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina. And now they get the Case Keenum show. Probably not good for them.
  • Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern may finally have their own dynamic QB back, but Michigan’s is even, er, dynamicier. (Yes, that’s not a word. Let’s move on.) Also, Northwestern’s defense is, like, epically bad.

7:30: Colorado @ Stanford (Versus): Maybe they’ll get Andrew Luck catch two passes in this likely laugher.

8:00: Ohio State @ Nebraska (ABC): Speaking of laughers, which will be greater: the number of points Ohio State scores, or the average number of beers consumed by their fans in trying to forget how the season has gone so far?

10:15: San Jose State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): With two wins, San Jose State is just “bad” this year as opposed to “really bad” in years past. Probably still not enough of an improvement to beat BYU though.

10:30:

  • Washington State @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): Washington State may go to 2-0 in the Pac-10/12 for the first in… well, I’m feeling lazy tonight so yeah it’s probably been awhile. UCLA’s offense is just so bad, though.
  • Texas Christian @ San Diego State (CBSS): TCU should’ve been in the Big 12 the whole time, so an injustice 15 years in the making is finally being righted. In other news, turns out this year’s version of TCU isn’t that good. I think SDSU will actually seize the opportunity to do some last-minute restructuring of the pecking order in the Mountain West.

Anyway, it’s bowl predictions time! Look for ’em Sunday or Monday.

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

    In honor of my trip to Vegas this weekend, I will actually pick against the spread. Spread values are as Friday morning, Pacific time. I should note that I probably won’t actually bet on any of these.

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

    Noon:

    • Air Force @ Navy (-3.5) (CBS): 3.5 points doesn’t seem like nearly enough, as I really like Navy here.
    • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (-2.5) vs. Arkansas (@Arlington, TX; ESPN): Both these times withered in their first real tests of the year, though I suffice to say I think Arkansas’s was a little tougher than TAMU’s. I like Arkansas to win outright, actually.
    • Northwestern @ Illinois (-10) (ESPN2): Northwestern gets their offense back in the form of Dan Persa this week, which is good for a team that lost to Army. Meanwhile, Illinois didn’t lose, but they sure tried to in a 23-20 win over Western Michigan. If I were to bet on this for some reason, I’d take the points.
    • Texas Tech (-6.5) @ Kansas (FSN): I know Tommy Tuberville is at TTU and not Leach, but geez. I like Tech to cover.
    • Pennsylvania State (-15.5) @ Indiana (ESPNU): My only reservation about picking Penn State to cover here is that I’m not entirely sure they can actually score 16 points.
    • Tulane @ Army (-7) (CBSS): I think betting on this game would probably be a sign that you need help. Tulane has shown some ability to score this year, so I actually like them to win outright.
    • Minnesota @ Michigan (-20) (BTN): Yes, Minnesota really is that bad. Michigan should cover.
    • Mississippi State @ Georgia (-7) (SEC/FSN): I’m not sure which of these teams is a less inspiring 2-2. I would stay far away from this one, but if you can’t for whatever reason, I would take Miss State and the points.
    • Kentucky @ Louisiana State (-30.5) (SEC): Kentucky is awful and all. I mean, really awful. But 30 points to LSU awful? Oh, right, they did beat WVU by 26. But still! 30 points in a SEC game! I would, very hesitantly, take Kentucky and the points.

    12:30: Wake Forest @ Boston College (-1) (ACC): A person who is nominally a Boston College fan wrote the following sentence a couple weeks ago: “Duke was simply the better football team today.” I’ll take Wake outright.

    2:30: Nevada @ Boise State (-27.5) (Versus): Nevada gave TTU all they wanted last week despite not really being the squad that upset Boise last year. Oh, right. Yeah… Boise might cover after all.

    3:30:

    • Michigan State @ Ohio State (-3.5) (ABC/ESPN): Neither of these teams has really played anyone to this point. Ohio State’s best win is a 37-17 evisceration of a not-very-good Colorado team, while Sparty’s best win to date is probably Central Michigan. So, uh, stay away from this one. Unless you want to take Ohio State to cover.
    • Georgia Tech (-10) @ North Carolina State (ESPN/ABC): This will be GT’s first real road test, though as far as I can tell the only thing really going for NCSU at this point is a blogger with a good sense of humor. Personally, though, it always makes me kind of nervous when the opposing fanbase is preparing for a massacre. I’ve been a GT fan long enough now to know that nothing is a gimme, having seen losses to the Dukes, (bad) UNCs, and Kansases of the world. Oh, and we lost to NCSU last year, at home, 45-28. In other words, I generally expect the worst. That said, it’s not like we don’t have issues of our own. Defense is still sketchy and seems to disappear for halves at a time, with good performances the 2nd half against Kansas and the 1st half against UNC, but then allowing UNC to get back in the game. Special teams remain… special, as we miss Scott Blair on place kicks and seem to be lacking answers on kickoff coverage, kickoff returns, punting, and punt returns. To this point, we’re basically some sort of anti-LSU, basically.
      For NC State, they miss Russell Wilson but Mike Glennon actually isn’t terrible, but they have lots of issues running the ball and on defense. That said, if the GT defense disappears for a half again their rushing attack could suddenly look very potent.
    • Baylor (-4) @ Kansas State (ABC): This game will likely be loaded with offense, with K-State piling 28 on in their win at Miami and, well, let me tell you about Robert Griffin III, Baylor’s soon to be all-everything quarterback. Actually, whole articles could probably be written about him, so I will just state this: Robert Griffin III has more touchdown passes (13) than incompetions (12). That’s not a typo. That’s not TD:INT. His TD:INT is undefined, actually. So, yes, after 82 attempts, he has more touchdown passes than incompletions. Amazing. I like Baylor to cover. Well, Robert Griffin to cover, anyway.
    • Arizona @ Southern California (-12) (FSN): Arizona’s not good and all, but this isn’t the USC juggernauts of the past, either. I’ll take the points.
    • Bethune-Cookman @ Miami (ESPNU): Some books have lines on these games, but many don’t. I won’t either. Miami all the way.
    • Southern Methodist @ Texas Christian (-13) (CBSS): This isn’t last year’s TCU, but I still like them to cover against a SMU team that got blown out by the only other good team they’ve played this year (TAMU).

    6:00: Clemson @ Virginia Tech (-7) (ESPN2): I like the building narrative of Clemson as a cheap knockoff of Auburn from last year. Basically, the narrative is something like this: powered by a singular talent on offense (well, and a good WR) plus a sketchy defense that makes 1 or 2 plays when it has to. Virginia Tech has mostly done its thing against lesser competition so far, but it also gets the Tigers in the infamously difficult environment at night in Blacksburg for their first road game of the year. Also, one of these teams is coached by Dabo Swinney and it isn’t VPI. I think VPI will cover the 7 points.

    7:00:

    • Texas (-9.5) @ Iowa State (FX): Iowa State is 3-0, including what has to be a freak victory over in-state rival Iowa. That said, Texas got into a groove against UCLA on offense, so I think they will cover.
    • Washington @ Utah (-10) (FSN): 10 seems awfully high for this group of Utes. Yes, they did demolish BYU. No, Washington isn’t that good this year. And yet, I feel one should take the points here.
    • Duke @ Florida International (-3.5) (ESPNU): FIU is decent and stuff, but I still think Duke should win outright.

    8:00:

    • Alabama (-4) @ Florida (CBS): I feel like this should be about Alabama by 7 or so, I think you can infer the rest.
    • Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-10) (ABC): I think I would take the points here. Wisconsin has played no one so we don’t really know if their defense is really all that. I think this could be high scoring for both sides, a situation that has to favor Nebraska at least getting within 10.
    • Notre Dame (-12) @ Purdue (ESPN): Meanwhile, if Notre Dame can get out of their own way they should be able to cover against a bad Purdue team.
    • North Carolina (-7) @ East Carolina (CBSS): UNC should cover pretty easily. ECU is good and stuff, and sure they hung around with VPI, but everyone hangs around with VPI – it’s what they do. Meanwhile, UNC has some real talent on both sides of the ball and should dominate both lines of scrimmage.

    9:15: Mississippi @ Fresno State (-4) (ESPN2): Really, we should be placing bets on when Houston Nutt gets fired. Fresno covers.

    10:30: California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (-21.5) (FSN): UCLA held on to beat a very depleted Beaver squad. Stanford is not depleted. Stanford should cover.

    All right, folks, good luck and enjoy the weekend!

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

    Yarr, there be spelling and grammar mistake dragons here. But let’s get down to it anyway, and it’ll be ready more than 24 hours in advance, to boot!

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): I should probably write something about realignment, but I don’t really have the time right now. So I’ll start here: Pitt, you need to start to win some games and not letting Iowa stage a 21-point rally in the last 16:16 of the game. That said, Notre Dame’s demolishing of a superior defense in Michigan State last weekend might show they’re ready now after an unsteady first two games, so I’ll go with the Irish here.
    • North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): It’s always fun when your team scores 66 points. I almost hate to say it but the 2nd reminded me of the Stanford-Wake Forest game I went to last year out here, in terms of “dominating offensive performances”. That said, Carolina does have an actual, real defense and some ability to move the ball, while GT’s defensive performance in the first half against Kansas was, shall we say, lackluster. Additionally, I don’t really feel good about the fact we decided to print t-shirts about beating Kansas.
    • Eastern Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): This will be a good recovery after what Alabama did to Penn State. Then again, they probably thought that going into the Temple game last weekend.
    • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (FSN): Memphis is still one of the worst teams in college football, but at least they didn’t lose to Austin Peay. Anyway, Mustangs roll.
    • Central Michigan @ Michigan State (ESPNU): Speaking of recovery games, this might be exactly what Sparty needs after fizzling against Notre Dame.
    • San Diego State @ Michigan (BTN): For Wazzou, nothing had to be more deflating for prospects of “maybe this is the year we aren’t a laughingstock anymore” than losing 42-24 to SDSU. That said, the Aztecs are more than capable of scoring points and may be able to keep this interesting into the second half.
    • Georgia @ Mississippi (SEC): Look, Georgia’s not very good this year, but Ole Miss, well, that is a trainwreck in progress. If you tune into this one, you may be stuck in “horrifying yet can’t look away” mode.

    12:30: Temple @ Maryland (ACC): Temple was able to give Penn State a run for its money, but honestly that was probably a fluke. Terps should be able to take care of business.

    3:30:

    • Arkansas @ Alabama (CBS): Nick Saban vs. Bobby Petrino. This game is usually pretty fun, even if the Tide winds up winning in the end – which they probably will in this game.
    • Colorado @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State may have basically been an offensively non-entity in Miami, but playing the extremely lackluster Colorado defense should help make them look better this time around. And let’s face it, the Buckeye backups are probably still better than Colorado’s starters at this point.
    • Oklahoma State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN2/ABC): Nothing like having your bye week in the first month of the season to ensure that you get most of the way to October with people still writing “well, we still don’t know much about this team”. I’m talking about TAMU here, as they’ve only played two games against SMU and Idaho. Points were scored, though, which seems a safe bet to carry into this game. I actually stayed up to watch part of that Oklahoma State-Tulsa game, and, well, it was kind of fun once but I won’t exactly be pining for 10:00pm Pacific starts from the Big 12 in the future. Anyway, I think OSU wins in a shootout.
    • Florida State @ Clemson (ESPN): FSU should be able to bounce back against Clemson as long as they’re not too bummed out about losing to Oklahoma. Also, Dabo Swinney is likely easily outfoxed by simple utensils, which gives a slight edge to most opposing coaches.
    • California @ Washington (FSN): Well, Washington got beat pretty bad by Nebraska, but that was expected. Cal is 3-0 but its best victory is an overtime win against Colorado, so at this point it would seem these teams are about evenly matched. In that case, I’ll take Cal, where Jeff Tedford seems to have some of his offensive mojo back.
    • Virginia Tech @ Marshall (CBSS): By all rights, VPI should win this by 50, seeing as how Marshall is coming off a 44-7 loss to Ohio (as in, the university in Athens, Ohio). But seeing as how VPI only managed to beat ECU by 7 and Arkansas State by 19, expect the unexpected and take the under.
    • Kansas State @ Miami (ESNPU): Yeah, I have a feeling this won’t end well for the Wildcats.
    • South Dakota @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin.
    • Southern Miss @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): I was tempted to pick the upset here, but looking at it, well, Virginia should probably win this one.

    7:00:

    • Florida @ Kentucky (ESPN): Kentucky just lost to Louisville, so, well, I feel pretty good about UF in this one.
    • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (ESPN2): Vandy’s 3-0 folks! Enjoy it while it lasts, Commodore fans.
    • Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): With all this realignment talk, I am still baffled by Louisiana Tech’s continued presence in the WAC. Maybe C-USA will get raided and they can join them or something. Anyway, Miss State should be able to get back its offensive footing as long as they don’t have some general aversion to all teams with “Louisiana” in their name.
    • North Dakota State @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota. Well, probably.
    • Florida Atlantic @ Auburn (SEC/FSN): Auburn. Definitely.

    7:30: Nebraska @ Wyoming (Versus): I’m assuming Wyoming still has their nice brown home unis (well, “nice”, anyway), which may give you a reason to tune into this one.

    8:00:

    • Louisiana State @ West Virginia (ABC): Will Morgantown survive the evening? WVU’s got some talented players and an actual coach now, but LSU’s defense should be able to keep them bottled up. But hey, it’s college football’s two rowdiest fanbases meeting up at night in a college town known for obscene t-shirts and a passion for furniture-based arson, which may be worth the price admission alone.
    • Missouri @ Oklahoma (FX): There’ll probably be some points scored in this game, but the Sooners should prevail.
    • Tulsa @ Boise State (CBSS): Tulsa becomes the latest victims of the Boise State Death Machine, hopefully those kids got some sleep before having to travel west though.

    10:15:

    • Southern California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Arizona State lost to Illinois? Oof. Um, yeah, going to have to go with the Trojans here.
    • Oregon @ Arizona (ESPN2): Arizona has already given up 37 points each to Oklahoma State and Stanford. Need I say more?