Monthly Archives: November 2011

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ South Carolina (CBS): Why is this game on CBS? Who knows! Suffice it to say, if this game ends up 9-6 it will be a pretty safe bet to chalk it up to offensive ineptitude than to defense. Florida has speed but no apparent idea of how to use it, while South Carolina is decimated by injuries, suspensions, and dismissals. In the end, though, I still expect the Gamecocks to prevail.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ABC): I think we pretty thoroughly know the answer to which Texas Tech team showed up against Oklahoma: not the one that has showed up for their other 8 games. Cowboys roll.
  • West Virginia @ Cincinnati (ABC): Flip a coin. The coin has about as much of an idea about the Big East as I do at this point. I’ll take Cincy for the sake of my bowl predictions.
  • Texas @ Missouri (FX): I don’t think either TAMU or Mizzoui’s Big 12 finales are going quite how they expected. Texas should get one last parting shot.
  • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): All I can say about this is: Nebraska has advantages both on the field and off, losses to Northwestern notwithstanding.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): The Big Ten is almost as befuddling as the Big East. I, uh, I’ll take Sparty here I guess?
  • Marshall @ Tulsa (FSN): Marshall doesn’t score a lot and can give up points in bunches. Not good things against Tulsa.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPNU): This Wake team can bite you, but the Tigers shouldn’t really have any issues.
  • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Buckeyes, I guess.
  • Rice @ Northwestern (BTN): This is not a good Rice team. Northwestern should roll.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): It’s your yearly SEC East slapfight! Both enter at 4-5, but Vandy has generally at least been able to hang with the SEC powers this year while Kentucky has, for the most part, been getting blown out. I like the Dores to get to 5-5.

12:30: North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): This BC team is just plain hapless. Wolfpack should roll.

3:00: Duke @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): Virginia Tech can clinch the Coastal now with a UVA loss, but despite me being generally down on UVA I don’t think they’ll lose to Duke.

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): I personally thought that putting Texas A&M in the SEC East is really lame. The only reason, it appears to me, that the SEC has “designated rivals” is because Alabama wants to play Tennessee every year and Auburn wants to play UGA every year. Why not just move Auburn and Alabama to the East and scrap the designated rivals thing altogether? It’ll be made up for because then the divisions will cycle through each other more quickly. Anyway, I guess I have to take Georgia here.
  • Miami @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN): Boy, this is sure isn’t what it used to be, eh? FSU should roll.
  • Michigan @ Illinois (ABC/ESPN): Well, Michigan looks to regain its offensive mojo once again. Luckily for them, Illinois has been especially hapless as of late.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Kansas State (ABC): TAMU looks suddenly vulnerable defensively, but I’m not really sure K-State has the offensive talent to take advantage. Nonetheless, TAMU’s second half woes are well documented at this point and so only with some hesitation I’m picking them.
  • Navy @ Southern Methodist (FSN): SMU has looked pretty good against the teams they’ve been expected to beat whilst getting clobbered by the powers of Conference USA. Meanwhile, Navy just hasn’t been, well, good this year at all. I like the Mustangs here.
  • Texas Christian @ Boise State (Versus): It’s kind of funny that the Mountain West bent over backward to move this game from Fort Worth to Boise in response to TCU’s then-move to the Big East. In the meantime, Boise is now probably going to move to the Big East, so in the end it sort really didn’t matter. Either way, I don’t really like TCU this year at all – so I’ll take Boise to continue their run.
  • Rutgers vs. Army (@New York, NY; CBSS): Because the world needs more football games at baseball stadiums! Rutger’s never ending quest to become New York City’s college football team continues as they should probably win easily over Army.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota’s shown some signs of life over the past couple of weeks, but I can’t really comprehend how they can beat Wisconsin.

3:45: Washington @ Southern California (FX): U-dub put forth a valiant effort against Oregon last weekend. Will a valiant effort be enough against USC, though? I’m not really sure. I like the Trojans a lot at this point, though their lack of depth is always a concern.

6:00: Tennessee @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Tennessee has no offense. Like, I think they just let the other team play offense the whole time and hope to run back punt returns and interceptions. This is not a good recipe against what looks like the most competent offense in the SEC.

7:00: Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): I think LSU’s going to win this one. I know I’m going out on a limb here, but…

7:30:

  • Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss might not win this one. After all, we need Houston Nutt’s last ride around the SEC to be as hilarious as possible, and so they need to be as bad as possible when they play LSU next weekend. And, with losses to Miss State and Southern Miss already, can LaTech afford to go 0-3 against the state of Mississippi? I think not. Bulldogs maybe pull off the upset. Probably. Well, perhaps.
  • Maryland vs. Notre Dame (@Landover, MD; NBC): I meant to look up if this was really a neutral site game or just a Maryland home game played over in Landover. Either way, I like the Irish here as Randy Esdall’s dismantling effort continues. (I assume that’s the oppose of a rebuilding effort, right?)

7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Yeah… yeah… Alabama will rain fire down upon the Bulldogs on this night, and blow them out… 24-3.

8:00:

  • Oregon @ Stanford (ABC): Okay, here’s the main event folks. And, frankly, all season I’ve liked the Ducks better. Stanford’s year should have been last year, when they were more well-rounded on both sides of the ball. Stanford has been challenged really only once all year, when they needed Andrew Luck to just about singlehandedly beat USC. Now, if you had to pick a guy who do that for you, you could could certainly do worse than Andrew Luck. But I just don’t think it will be enough against Oregon.
  • Central Florida @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): UCF picked a good week to have a good old-fashioned recruiting scandal. Regardless, USM should continue their march to the C-USA title game.

9:15: Idaho @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Idaho is not very good and stuff. The BYU team isn’t exactly awe-inspiring or anything but they should still win easily.

10:15: Hawaii @ Nevada (ESPNU): Now here’s the WAC-tion you want right here. Expect points, and lots of them, but also expect the Wolfpack to emerge victorious at the end.

10:30: Arizona State @ Washington State (Versus): Arizona State losing to UCLA may be one of the more inexplicable upsets of the year. Will Sun Devils get upset again in Pullman? Well, probably not.

This Week in College Football: Week 11

A special edition, looking at the weekday games for this week.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
(Just pretend this was posted on time for these games.)
8:00:

  • Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green (ESPN2): The weather may be getting colder, but rest assured the MACtion is just heating up. Both of the teams involved last week’s torrid 63-60 affair return tonight, but this time with different partners. However, Bowling Green has not displayed the same proficiency in the offensive arts as NIU has, which is likely bad news for the home team here.
  • Western Michigan @ Toledo (ESPNU): Now, if you’re looking for a repeat of last week’s game then this is the place to be, most likely. That said, the Rockets looked pretty unstoppable in the MAC until they ran into NIU, so I’ll go with them.

Wednesday
8:00: Miami @ Temple (ESPN): The MACtion isn’t just confined to Tuesday nights, though. Oh no. Miami is dead last in the country in rushing, but rest assured they can throw it around, though against the only solid MAC team they’ve played (Toledo) they lost 49-28. Temple is the opposite – yes, they’ve lost to Toledo as well, but they are 8th in the country in rushing but 115th in passing. Ohio exploded for an unheard of 35 points against the Owls last weekend, so we may be in for more scoring than Temple’s stingy 12.8 points allowed per game may make you think. I still like the Owls though.

Thursday
7:30: Ohio @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Remember, Central Michigan is the bad directional Michigan this year. Bobcats should roll.

8:00:

  • Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): [N.B.: “Tech” refers to Georgia Tech here. -ed] Every year there’s been a Coastal Division of the ACC, there’s been this game. And the winner of this game has been the Coastal Division champ. Twice has the good Tech won this one. The 2006 game I remember because my old cell phone still has a text message from my brother on September 30, 2006 on it: “Omg 21-0 gt” – I got said text because I was out of town that Saturday and wasn’t able to watch but the last 10 minutes or so of the game.
    The marbles are once again on the line with those one – though it should be noted due to GT’s loss to Virginia that Tech cannot clinch without another Virginia loss. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, which may well not be what Tech needed because the worst thing that happened in that Clemson game was halftime. (Well, other than the offsides non-call.)
    In way, these teams could not be farther apart going into the game, in terms of the game they played going into this. Georgia Tech played their best game since 2009 against Clemson, dominating in all phases in the game. VPI meanwhile struggled to put points on the board against Duke. The Blue Devils missed three FGs as well, any two of which could’ve allowed them to pull off the upset.
    Not that it matters, of course. Going into a Thursday night game in Atlanta is, objectively, much more exciting than going into Wallace Wade Stadium at any time. Add in the ticket to a rematch against Clemson being on the line and that puts together a recipe for a huge game. Who will win? I don’t know. I like our chances if we play like we did against Clemson, but the odds us playing as good as we did against the Tigers and VPI playing as bad as they did against the Blue Devils is low, as I just said.
    It will come down to the usual things: defense and special teams. Special teams have been a tremendous concern for Georgia Tech this year, while it looks like Beamerball has been back in full force in Blacksburg. Even if Tech managers to avoid punting or kicking field goals (the ideal scenario), kickoff coverage has still been horrendous outside the Clemson game. The Georgia Tech defense, meanwhile, played its best game since John Tenuta was let go after 2007. They were able to confuse Tajh Boyd with a variety of zone and corner blitzes, which worked mainly because the secondary (and Jamea Thomas especially) played the games of their lives out on the Isles of Man Coverage. It feels funny to type this when you consider that Clemson still ran up nearly 400 yards of offense, but outside of one Sammy Watkins TD catch their offense was kept in check. (17 points was, and probably will remain, Clemson’s lowest point total of the season.) The other key: they weren’t on the field that much. The GT offense held on the to the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game, including the soul-sucking nine minute drive in the fourth quarter that saw Clemson get the ball back down two scores with two minutes to go.
    Suffice it to say, I think the Jackets will need similar heroics to prevail over the Hokies.
  • Houston @ Tulane (CBSS): Houston should be able to name its own score against the hapless Green Wave.

Friday
8:00: South Florida @ Syracuse (ESPN2): USF has had a very symmetric season, but not in a good way: they started off with four straight (including an increasingly more inexplicably upset of Notre Dame) and now have dropped four straight. Inexplicable is a pretty excellent word to describe the Big East as a whole, though. The Orange have dropped two straight after their dominating upset over West Virginia and sits at the precipice of bowl eligibility. They’ll probably get it, but the problem is when? I say here, most likely, because I’ve really given up on trying to predict anything about the Big East – the ‘Cuse could lose this one and go knock off Cincinnati next week, which, let’s face it, is probably the most likely scenario.

Enjoy the rest of your week, and see if you can’t catch the tail end of the Toledo-WMU game. That looks like a good one. Otherwise, I’ll be back with Saturday’s games sometime Friday or Saturday.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 4

When will I ever learn that “it’ll probably be easier this week” is pretty much a surefire way to make sure that isn’t the case?

Let’s get down to business and see why. You can follow along with the picks in their usual place.

BCS
The BCS was the single hardest thing to pick this week. With the chaos in the Big Ten, figuring out the last team into the BCS picture was extremely difficult. Here’s why.

Currently, I still have LSU and Oklahoma State running the table. I am not entirely convinced about the latter but trying to figure out which 1-loss team is most worthy, or if Boise State is, is even more difficult to figure out. (If Stanford beats Oregon this weekend, that will make my job easier.) I immediately slot Alabama into LSU’s vacated Sugar Bowl spot but even figuring out who will replace Oklahoma State in the Fiesta is difficult. I have the following automatic bids: LSU (BCS #1), Oklahoma State (BCS #2), Boise State (MWC champion ranked in top 12), Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Wisconsin (Big Ten champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Cincinnati (Big East champ). This accounts for 7 of the 10 available BCS bids. Currently, I only have 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams (not counting Houston), and the only two I didn’t mention above are Alabama and Stanford. Due to the Andrew Luck effect, I assume Stanford will be a desirable at-large team and thus will get Oklahoma State’s Fiesta Bowl bid.

Now, at this point the only remaining bids are the 3 at-large bids in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. The selections go in that order. There are two remaining automatic qualifiers: Boise State and Cincinnati. This means that there will be a 2-loss team somewhere in the BCS. But who? This could affect who the bowl picks. And this is where the Big Ten shenanigans come in.

With Nebraska’s shocking upset to Northwestern, this means there will be no Big Ten team with less than two losses at the end of the year (I think it’s safe to assume Penn State will lose one of their remaining games (I have them losing two more, actually)). This also means Nebraska has two conference losses. Michigan State only has one conference loss, and I don’t think they will lose again this year. So they will win the Legends division, where I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That would give Michigan State three losses. Whereas Nebraska – having continued winning through the end of the season – should be able to rise back up into the top 14 of the BCS.

So, yeah, it’s probably unfair, but them’s the breaks. Thanks to BCS hot-potato and backroom dealing, I went ahead and figured the Fiesta would suck it up and take Boise, setting up a game that sounds epic, at least in name: Alabama versus Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl. (I wasn’t surprised to find the two schools had met in the Sugar Bowl before – in 1967. Unfortunately, it apparently wasn’t much of a classic as the Tide won 34-7.)

In any BCS scenario, I figure the odds of the Orange avoiding an ACC-Big East matchup are slim.

ACC
The only ACC team that can possibly have only 1-loss is the ACC champ. I currently have this team as Clemson.

Thanks to unexpectedly strong seasons from Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia the ACC should fill out its primary bowl obligations this year and then some. The first slots after the BCS are easy: Virginia Tech to the Chick-fil-a and Florida State to the Champs Sports bowl (setting up a good “name” matchup if the Champs uses their option to select Notre Dame). This brings us to the Sun Bowl. According to the ACC selection rules, the Sun can choose from the following: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, and Miami. Miami went to the Sun Bowl last year so I figure they’re out. I don’t Virginia or Wake are known for traveling terribly well, and so I’ve put GT there. This allows the rest of the dominoes to fall into place. I’ve put NC State into the Belk Bowl (formerly the Car Care Bowl), followed by Miami to the Music City and Virginia to the Independence. Wake Forest finally gets picked for the Military Bowl, mostly because ACC rules prevent a 3-5 UNC from being picked above them. This allows North Carolina to be shipped out to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl in San Fransisco, fulfilling the ACC option as a backup for the Pac-12 or Army.

Big East
If it seems like the Big East selections were drawn out of a hat, well, they very well could have been. For the sake of my sanity, I picked Cincy to run the table followed by Louisville, WVU, and Pitt. Oy. They will have an extra team, though, since I have Syracuse getting 6-6, so I put them in the Military Bowl slot the Big 12 won’t come anywhere close to filling.

Big 12
The Big 12 is pretty much the two Oklahoma schools and everyone else. Texas seems to have gotten its act together so I slotted them into the Cotton. Everything else straightforward, though Baylor kind of gets the shaft. If Iowa State or Texas Tech and manage to win another game that would really be a boon for the conference but considering their schedules I don’t see it happening.

Big Ten
The Big Ten is a mess right now. I talked about the Nebraska thing above, and that was mostly just me going “well, someone has to have a 2-bid conference that probably doesn’t deserve it” and so I figured a 2-loss team from the Big Ten would fit the bill. Michigan State will probably still land in the Capital One Bowl, so that’s not a huge deal. I have both Michigan and Penn State going 9-3, with the Outback bid going to the Fightin’ Paternos and shipping Michigan off to Arizona. The rest of the slate is pretty “meh” and straightforward, though even after four weeks it still feels weird projecting Ohio State into second-tier bowl games.

Pac-12
Boy does this conference miss USC being eligible or what? Speaking of crazy upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska was shocking, yes, but not Earth-shaking (well, metaphorically considering recent events in Oklahoma). UCLA over Arizona State, though? Now there’s an upset. Consider this: the team that got pantsed by Arizona only a few Thursdays ago and had all but officially announced they’d fired the head coach is now in a 3-way tie for the Pac-12 South lead. Now, I figure Arizona State will still win the division in the end, but still. Also, don’t look but Utah should get to 6-6 pretty easily over the next few weeks, if not 7-5. I tried to resist it, but it was just too easy match them against TCU in the Las Vegas Bowl if for no other reason than to get Utah partisans to say, “wait, we joined a BCS conference and we still ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl… and playing one of our former MWC rivals?” I had some hesitation though because that meant Cal ended up in the Fights Hunger Bowl, which is being played in the stadium that’s serving as their home field this year. Well, if nothing else I guess they’ll be used to it.

SEC
SEC partisans will no doubt howl about the 2-team limit for BCS participation, because if Arkansas’s only losses are to LSU and Alabama then they should easily stay in the BCS top 14. Nonetheless, the BCS slate was pretty straightforward, though I am hoping I’m wrong and Vandy gets up to 6-6.

Everyone else
The Sun Belt and MAC will benefit, as usual, from having surplus eligible teams. I still have Western Kentucky on track to make their first ever bowl game. Overall, though, there’s nothing Earthshattering going on here other than an undefeated Houston being stuck in the Liberty Bowl, but at least that makes it a good bet for Conference USA to make it two straight in the game. This week not having enough teams does not appear to be a concern, and from what I remember while doing the predictions, it appears we’ll be okay this year. (Though honestly one of my favorite bowl system doomsday scenarios that no one talks about is the specter of a team with a losing record making it into a bowl game.)

Anyway, next week probably be just as difficult and confusing, though which way it ultimately goes may be decided just up the road from me here in California. Until then…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Texas Tech @ Texas (FX): Will the real Texas Tech please stand up? Losing to Iowa State 41-7 after knocking off Oklahoma is, just, well, hard to fathom. I think Texas has a pretty good shot to get to bowl eligibility here.
  • Michigan @ Iowa (ESPN): Michigan was last seen taking care of business against Purdue, while Iowa was last seen falling asleep on the job and losing to the extremely hapless Golden Gophers. Have to like Denard and Co. here.
  • Syracuse @ Connecticut (ESPNU): Depressingly, this game is still extremely important in the race to the Big East’s BCS bid.
  • Minnesota @ Michigan State (BTN): Will Minnesota make it two in a row? Almost certainly not.
  • Indiana @ Ohio State (BTN): Hapless doesn’t even begin to describe the Hoosiers this year. Ohio State shouldn’t need a last minute TD pass to win this one.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (SEC): Florida supporters probably feel like it’s the end of the world after losing to UGA. Not that I can blame them, of course. This is a fiesty Vandy team but it’s hard to envision how they could come out of the swamp with a win.

12:30:

  • Virginia @ Maryland (ACC): Boston College looked like the shot in the arm the Terps needed. Instead, it looked like they were shot with a cannonball as BC picked up its first ACC win. I’m not expecting much else out of UMD at this point.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACC): While it probably won’t be the 34-0 drubbing this received last weekend, it’s hard to see NCSU winning here.

3:00: Duke @ Miami (ACC/FSN): Miami. Probably.

3:30:

  • Army @ Air Force (CBS): Getting blown out by MAC teams isn’t a good sign for this year’s Army squad. Air Force should win easily.
  • Stanford @ Oregon State (ABC): Look closely at this ABC coverage map. See that one sliver in southern Florida? That’s the Andrew Luck Effect, which could also refer to what’s about to happen to Oregon State.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2): Did you know that Texas A&M has the worst pass defense in the country? I didn’t until earlier today. I don’t think they’ll need to worry about surrendering a 2nd half lead in this one, suffice it to say.
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (ESPN2/ABC): Speaking of blowing 2nd half leads, I don’t think the Badgers have much to worry about this weekend.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Rice (FSN): UTEP needs this one to set up the one upset they’ll need to pull to get to bowl eligibility. I think they’ll get it.
  • Mississippi @ Kentucky (ESPNU): ESS-EEE-CEE SLAPFIGHT. Technically speaking, Kentucky does have more wins over DI-A competition than Ole Miss (2 to 1). Basically, this is is about as far as you can get from the nightcap on CBS tonight. Both of these teams are really just so awful it’s hard for me to pick one that will be slightly less awful for four hours. I guess I’ll go with Kentucky, because that’ll make it all the more hilarious when Houston Nutt inexplicably beats LSU two weeks from now but gets fired at the end of the year anyway.
  • Troy @ Navy (CBSS): I think Navy gets the win here, but the rest of the year is looking pretty lean.
  • Northwestern @ Nebraska (BTN): (looks up Big Ten divisional standings) Oh, right, with their win over Sparty last weekend Nebraska is in the driver’s seat for the …(checks again)… yes, right, Legends division. It’s difficult to see how Northwestern stands a chance.

7:00:

  • Missouri @ Baylor (FSN): I HOPE YOU LIKE POINTS because boy howdy you’ll get them in this game. That said, Baylor’s defense is just awful and will probably let them down again. Despair not, Baylor fans – Texas Tech and Kansas remain very beatable.
  • Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Finally this is the week where the three teams that could win the Big East start to play each other. If Cincy wins they remain the team to beat, where as a Pitt win makes this year’s Backyard Brawl bigger than ever.
  • Houston @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSS): If you don’t follow Alabama college news, there hasn’t been a lot of good news the past couple of weeks for the other two members of the University of Alabama system that aren’t in Tuscaloosa. My hometown school, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, recently got its unique DI hockey program canned (the only DI hockey program in the South) for various dumb reasons. UAB, meanwhile, recently got its bid for an on-campus football stadium canned. I feel less bad about that one because while I realize that Legion Field isn’t all that great these days I’m not really sure what UAB has done to merit an on-campus stadium. Most of what I’ve seen said it would cost around $75 million, which is vastly more than what it takes to run a hockey program. Perhaps that’s not really a fair point, though – after all, I love Tech’s on campus stadium but it’s only a mile and a half from the Georgia Dome. (Of course, the counter to that would be that Tech has been playing football for a very long time and the Bobby Dodd Stadium predates the Dome by decades.)
    Anyway, none of that has anything to do with the fact Case Keenum will become the NCAA’s all-time passing leader at Legion Field at some point Saturday night as Houston will almost certainly rout a UAB squad that is 116th in scoring and gives up 35 points a game to teams that aren’t Houston (i.e., the number one team in the country in scoring at 52.3 points per game).
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Tennessee (SEC/FSN): And so begins Tennessee’s harrowing quest toward bowl eligibility. Four games to go, one of which is an almost certain loss to Arkansas, but the others are Vandy and Kentucky. Will they make it? Stay tuned.

7:15: South Carolina @ Arkansas (ESPN): Speaking of Arkansas, this is a game that features two SEC in the top-10 mostly because they’re teams from the SEC that only have 1-loss. Arkansas needed a missed chip shot FG to avoid overtime against Vandy last weekend, and South Carolina’s offense has taken a dive since they lost Marcus Lattimore. If one of these teams has a better chance of breaking out of their offensive funk, though, it has to be Arkansas, and so I’ll take the Razorbacks here.

7:30: Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): UCLA pulled off an inexplicably upset of Cal last weekend, but I’m not buying it. Arizona State should roll.

8:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): We’ve known this was going to be a huge game since the schedules came out at the beginning of the year. We also know that the wise guys like Alabama, but the people like LSU. Expect for their punter being one of the first victims of the NCAA’s new (and dumb) live-ball unsportsmanlike conduct rule, LSU has had a pretty, well, normal season so far, free of any botched end-of-game situations. They’ve even showed signs of actually having an offense which has generally been the thing missing from past LSU teams. The only thing that’s remained the same, it seems, is a very talented defense and Les Miles remaining extremely quotable.
    Nick Saban, of course, remains really boring. Nonetheless, if Bama fans had any sense of humor and were less religiously uptight there would probably “SABAN IS GOD” graffiti throughout the state. (I mean, there’s probably plenty of paraphernalia that just about implies Saban is at least a lesser deity along with God and, of course, Bear Bryant.) Anyway, enough blasphemy from me. If LSU’s defense is really good, then what I’ve been saying the last two years is true. 2010 Alabama had a pretty good defense, but it in 2011 it would be back to 2009 levels and so far I have been right. That said, LSU’s defense is only #2 because they played Oregon, who had the audacity to score 27 points on them. LSU also gave up 21 to West Virginia, but outside of that hasn’t given up more than 11 points. The reason why Alabama is #1 is because they haven’t given up more than 14 to anyone, but that is because they haven’t really played anyone with a decent offense other than Arkansas.
    The resume so far is the main reason why LSU is #1 in the country in all the polls. They boast a very good win over Oregon, and a decent OOC win over WVU, but won’t play the SEC’s other quality team until they play Arkansas at the end of the year. Alabama, meanwhile, was able to shutdown Arkansas’s offense but frankly holding Penn State and Florida to 11 and 10 points, respectively, isn’t really all that much of an achievement this year. I’m not saying this defense isn’t very good, mind you.
    In the end, this will go the way of many SEC heavyweight bouts over the past few years. There will not be a lot of points in this game. So, naturally, my mind turns to “which team is less likely to make mistakes?” If there’s any offense built to minimize mistakes, it’s Alabama’s, which again has an anonymous game-manager QB and a Heisman candidate running back. LSU’s offense has been a revelation this year, which basically means they’ve put up a lot of points against several teams that have sort-of sketchy defenses. And yet, if something weird happens in this game, you have to think that favors the team with The Hat, don’t yet? But nonetheless, if these teams played each other 10 times, I think Alabama would win 7 of those times. I’ll reluctantly take the Tide.
  • Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (ABC/ESPN2): I have no idea why you would watch this game. This is a feisty Wake Forest squad but the Domers should punch their ticket for the Champs Sports Bowl (well, or maybe the Pinstripe Bowl).
  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2/ABC): Oklahoma put up 58 on Kansas State. The Wildcats will pickup their second loss, the only question is “by how much?”

10:30:

  • Oregon @ Washington (FSN): It’s time for the nightcaps! This is the most palatable of them, of course. Washington’s been a nice surprise in the Pac-12 North this year (see Big Ten, I didn’t even look that up!) but their previous attempt to have a say in the outcome of the division didn’t go so well with a 65-21 rout in Palo Alto. They’ll try again here, and I think it could be closer but I don’t think it’ll be close enough.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State (ESPNU): Yes, kids, this is a WAC game! Neither of these teams really do anything particularly well, but Fresno’s defense is apparently really bad, so we could have a shootout on our hands. I still like Fresno here though.
  • Boise State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV already gives up 40 points a game to teams that aren’t Boise State. This should be a bloodbath.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 3

Let’s get the link out of the way.

I feel like I’m close to really being able to do an in-depth analysis, though I think we won’t really be able to have a real idea of what things will look like until Oregon and Stanford play. While this weekend’s Alabama-LSU tilt is huge for the national title game, the loser will likely still get into a BCS bowl as long as they don’t lose again. I think Oregon will beat Stanford, which leaves me in a bad position because I also think Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State. For the sake of clarity right now, I’m not going with the latter prediction to avoid a big mess, pretty much.

Elsewhere in the BCS, I’m not really sure to do after I slot the Alabama-LSU loser into the Sugar Bowl. I have Wisconsin, Oregon, Clemson, and West Virginia as conference champs, and Boise should qualify for an at-large. So that leaves us with two more at-large slots. I went with Stanford and Oklahoma. I couldn’t figure out any other better 1-loss team to put into the BCS, pretty much. Even a 1-loss Stanford feels like a reach to me, but Andrew Luck alone may get them into the BCS, in the sense that NFL fans my flock to see the future #1 draft pick.

Quick conference breakdowns:

  • ACC: As ecstatic as I was about our victory Saturday, I’m not sure how much it will help our bowl positioning unless we can beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia. I also ended up in the awkward positioning of sending Miami back to the Sun Bowl, which I kind of doubt will happen again. I have Clemson losing again, but to South Carolina.
  • Big 12: I still think that Bedlam will probably only act as a NCG stepping stone for Oklahoma State, provided they don’t lose beforehand. I don’t have Mizzou or Texas Tech getting eligible, even with the former delivering a surprise upset this week, and with the latter’s surprise upset being a good reason why they might not make 6-6.
  • Big East: I… guess West Virginia’s going to win this conference? Who the heck knows. 
  • Big Ten: Michigan suddenly sits pretty at the top of the Big Ten heap, with Michigan State unable to follow up on their Wisconsin win. Wisconsin also suffered a surprising loss to Ohio State, but I still have them winning the Leaders division because Penn State can’t really be for real, can they?
  • Pac-12: I still have Oregon beating Stanford. Meanwhile, I think Utah will rally over the back half of their schedule because now they get to play the Colorados and UCLAs of the world. They may even get to 8-4. Either way, with USC not eligible and Cal barely getting in at 6-6, the Pac-12 will come nowhere close to fulfilling its obligations.
  • SEC: The SEC elite this year (Alabama and LSU) will almost certainly make BCS bowls as long as neither loses more than once. Unlike in past years, though, the depth of the conference is not that great. Ole Miss and Kentucky are just outright terrible. I have Miss State and Tennessee limping at 6-6. I also have Vandy going 6-6 but for them that’s a pretty good year. The East is down to Georgia and South Carolina, and I think the latter could still lose again in SEC play. I swapped South Carolina and Arkansas in their bowl slots because I had Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and they already played Arkansas this year – in Dallas, no less. (The Cotton prefers teams from the SEC West, but Auburn may be the only other team in the division that has a winning record.) 
  • Independents: I have the Champs Sports Bowl exercising its Notre Dame pick this year, otherwise the Domers will probably fall back to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City. BYU is already eligible and has an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. I don’t think either of the academies will qualify this year. Navy already has 6 losses and according to some sites I’ve seen this already discounts them because the Army game is too late on the calendar. And I’m not sure where they Army team is going to get 3 wins from.
  • Mid-majors: The Sun Belt and MAC benefit hugely once again from Big 6 conferences unable to use all their bids. I have 4 eligible Sun Belt teams, including Western Kentucky making its first ever bowl game. The WAC will probably only have 3 eligible teams, one of them being Hawaii. The MAC should produce 6 eligible teams, providing plenty of backup. Hard part is that many of the bowls missing teams are out west, which makes it difficult to say “oh yeah, that’s close, maybe they’ll go there”. Boise will make the BCS provided they don’t lose at some point, and the rest of the Mountain West should fulfill its obligations as teams like Air Force and San Diego State should get their seasons together. And finally, the C-USA title game may be pretty good this year, as Southern Miss is on a collision course for only 1 loss going into the game with Houston. Case Keenum may still be too much for the Golden Eagles, though. Houston almost certainly can’t get into the BCS (due to their schedule) but the C-USA has a good chance of holding onto the Liberty Bowl title, I should think.

All right, that’s that. Hopefully I’ll have more thorough breakdowns next week. Until then.