Yearly Archives: 2010

So 2010 is over. What about 2011?

The 2010 Braves tried as hard as they could, but ultimately it wasn’t enough to overcome missing 2 of their top 3 offensive weapons. So aside from a new manager, who else do the Braves need to worry about replacing this offseason? I went through the Braves’ current contracts to preview who’ll become a free agent, who’s up for arbitration, and who will return.

Pardon the obligatory spelling and grammar errors, I’m tired.

Veteran Free Agents/Options

  • Derrek Lee (1B): He’ll be 35 next year, and has a bad back among other possible ailments. Despite only hitting 3 HRs, he put up an 849 OPS in 39 games with the Braves. While he won’t again command a $13 million salary, it’s generally thought the Braves expect Freddie Freeman will be ready for primetime next year. I doubt the Braves consider resigning him.
  • Troy Glaus (1B): He figuratively, and very nearly literally, carried the team in May and June. The rest of the year his OPS hovered in the 550-600 range, which is pretty terrible for a first baseman. The Braves only paid him $1.75 million (plus incentives), but again with Freeman expected to make the big club he’s gone.
  • Eric Hinske (4C): He’s really only a 3 corners guy, and saw his use in the field decline precipitously throughout the year despite the Braves being terrible in the outfield. However, he was still a decent left-handed bat off the bench, and only cost $1 million. I think the Braves might look into resigning him.
  • Scott Proctor (RHP): The Braves signed this righty-reliever coming off Tommy John surgery as a reclamation project. He experienced multiple setbacks and spent most of the year in the minors before being called up in September, where he only appeared in 6 games, allowing 4 runs, 4 walks, but getting 6 strikeouts in 5.2 innings. I’m not really sure what the Braves would do here – righty middle relievers are a dime-a-dozen.
  • Billy Wagner (LHP): Despite a $6.5 million club option, Wagner will retire.
  • Kyle Farnsworth (RHP): Acquired in the Kansas City trade that also brought over Rick Ankiel, Farnsworth didn’t pitch well, but he didn’t pitch badly either and made the postseason roster in a deep pen. However, it’s doubtful the Braves think he’s worth his $5.25 million club option for next year.
  • Takashi Saito (RHP): The Braves signed him to a 1-year deal last offseason, and he delivered the goods before coming down with a variety of aliments late in the season that could be roughly attributed to his age (he’ll be 41 next year). I don’t think he’ll be back – there’s not a lot of demand for 41 year old righties with arm and shoulder issues.
  • Melky Cabrera (OF): The Braves acquired him to platoon with Matt Diaz in left. Unfortunately, he was pressed into much more playing time than planned when Diaz went down for a couple of months with an infected thumb. Thought to be a speed-type player, he rarely bunted for base hits and only stole 7 bases. He also only hit .266 (685 OPS) against righties which is not good when you’re part of a platoon in a corner outfield position. Unfortunately for the Braves, Nate McLouth was so bad he also played a lot in center, regardless of who was pitching. I’m not sure what the Braves intended to do with the outfield outside of Jason Heyward and Matt Diaz, but they need to figure something out. It probably won’t involve this guy.
  • Rick Ankiel (OF): I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Braves won’t pick up Ankiel’s $6 million mutual option. After not playing May and June, he played well in his last few games with the Royals before the trade, where he promptly returned to his 2009 form that caused the Cardinals to not resign him. He looked lost at the plate hitting .210 in his time in Atlanta, but he was better in the field than most of the other options of the outfield. I doubt the Braves resign him, and the way he’s swung the bat the last two seasons put his future as a major leaguer in doubt.
  • Alex Gonzalez (SS): I joked early in the NLDS that someone should just tell him they were going to play the Giants at Rogers Centre, because whatever the reason he hit 17 HR in 85 games with the Blue Jays but only 6 in 72 games with the Braves. The Braves could exercise a $2.5 million club option for him in 2011, and with the lack of any other major-league ready shortstops in the minors (unless the Braves consider Omar Infante an option at short, which I don’t think they do) they may pick it up.

Arbitration Eligible

  • Matt Diaz (LF): The Braves signed him for $2.55 million last winter to avoid arbitration, and it’s likely they will do so again. I think they will make an effort to retain Diaz, as he plays left and absolutely kills lefties. His health issues from last year and this year should also continue to keep his salary under $3 million.
  • Omar Infante (UT): The Braves’s super-sub made a somewhat controversial All-Star appearance, and then got a chance to play everyday when Chipper Jones went down in August. The Braves have a $2.5 million club option for next year and I see no reason why they wouldn’t pick it up. I don’t think they want to see him play everyday, but he can play 2B, 3B, and in a pinch, short and is a decent bat off the bench.
  • Peter Moylan (RHP): The affable Aussie is eligible for arbitration again, and the Braves will most likely work to retain his services.
  • Jair Jurrjens (RHP): This wasn’t a good year for Jurrjens, as he spent large chunks of it hurt and his numbers were done. However, the Braves know that, if healthy, he’s a solid middle of the rotation guy and is certainly worth more than the $480,000 they paid him last year. The Braves will probably attempt to work out a long-term deal in the off season, but since Jurrjens is represented by Scott Boras he may explore the market or force arbitration.
  • Eric O’Flaherty (LHP): When healthy, O’Flaherty played the LOOGY role in the Braves’s bullpen, but he also spent a large portion of the season hurt and didn’t make the postseason roster due to dizziness and blurred vision. At press time, it’s still not known what ails him. Provided he works it out, the Braves will probably seek to sign him to a 1 to 2-year deal to avoid arbitration for now.
  • Martin Prado (2B/3B): All Prado did in 2010 was hit over .300 again for decent power (mostly in the form of doubles) and make the All-Star team. Unfortunately for him and the Braves, his various ailments (broken pinky, sore groin) started to catch up to him in September before he tore his oblique the last week of the season. Nonetheless, I think the Braves see him as their second baseman of the future and will probably attempt to work out a long-term deal while avoiding arbitration. Suffice it to say, he’s going to get a raise from the $440,000 he made this past year.

Veterans Under Contract

  • Tim Hudson (RHP): Hudson was, in his first full year after Tommy John surgery, far and away the Brave’s’s best starting pitcher, and became the guy the Braves thought they were getting back in 2005. In fact, he posted his best season since 2003, posting a sub-3.00 (2.83) ERA for the first time since then with a slightly lower strikeout rate. $9 million a year through 2012 looks like a steal right now, and he should be the Braves’s #1 starter next year.
  • Kenshin Kawakami (RHP): Kawakami was dreadful this year. Despite getting his first win in his June 26th start against Detroit, he was already bad enough that Kris Medlen took his spot the next time it came up. From there, he was relegated to bullpen, wherefrom he made the all of two appearances and an emergency/last chance start in early September where he gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings. Problem is, the Braves still have him under contract for $6.667 million next year. He was left off the postseason roster and it’s uncertain what the Braves will do with him.
  • Derek Lowe (RHP): Lowe was the NL pitcher of the month for September after finding/rediscovering his slider reduced his WHIP from around 1.4 to 1.076 as he reduced his walk and increased his strikeouts. Downside is next year he’ll enter his age 38 season and rarely goes past six innings. Nonetheless, he’s under contract through 2012 for $15 million a year. If the Braves get a few more months like this past September/October out of him they at least have gotten some of their money’s worth.
  • Brian McCann (C): Another year, another all-star appearance for Brian McCann. Another 20 homers, another 4.7 WAR (making him the most valuable player on the roster), another year of being the best catcher in the league (though unlike the Cubs rookie from a few years back, Buster Posey looks to be a legit challenger to this title). His average was down because his strikeouts increased, and his 20 lost RBI can probably be attributed to Chipper getting hurt. The scary thing (well, for opposing pitchers)? He turns only 27 next year, and he’s under contract through 2012 with a club option at $12 million for 2013. I have a feeling it’ll probably be worth it.
  • David Ross (C): As Baseball Prospectus’s preview of the NLDS said, “let’s talk about David Ross, because nobody talks about David Ross”. During this past season he negotiated a new contract worth $1.625 million per year through 2012. For a backup catcher who defends better than the starter but doesn’t embarrass himself at the plate (871 OPS over 145 plate appearances this year) that’s totally worth it.
  • Chipper Jones (3B): Chipper is signed through 2012 for $13 million a year. He was having a rough go of it early in the season, but from June 10 to August 10 (when he tore his ACL) he hit .299/.385/.503 with 7 homers. Despite missing the last two months of the season, he was still the 3rd most value player on the club, worth 3.2 wins above replacement. Since WAR is a cumulative stat, it’s worth wondering how much higher he would’ve been had he been in the lineup the last two months of the year. He mentioned during an in-game interview the last Friday of the season that he was going to begin hitting of a tee the next day. His current plan seems to be to rehab as normal and then see if the can make the club in the spring. Based on the way he talked when he was mired in a slump the first part of the season, I don’t think Chipper will be out there if he thinks he’s an embarrassment to himself or the team. He’s not chasing any numbers that I know of and has done enough to be a first ballot hall of famer. Going into his age 39 season next year, I suspect it will mostly be up to him.
  • Nate McClouth (OF): June 9th at Arizona, Nate McLouth collided with Jason Heyward in right center field. Heyward got up, but McLouth had a concussion and didn’t return to the big club until July 21. It would be tempting to attribute his struggles to that incident, but frankly he was terrible before then. In 60 games before then, he was batting .176 and a .295 on base percentage, which is out-and-out terrible for a guy who’s supposed to be able to leadoff and steal some bases. He also only stole 7 bases on the year. Oh, and he doesn’t play center particularly well either. All this and more are what the what the Braves are paying him $6.5 million next year for. I really hope they can figure out a way out this contract.

Active, Notable, or Injured Rookies or Second Year Players

  • Tommy Hanson (RHP): The Braves’s front-end rotation guy of the future had a pretty solid 2010 and avoided a sophomore slump. He pitched as well as anyone in the second half but terrible run support limited him to a 10-11 record despite a 3.33 ERA. There’s a chance he may be “Super 2” player (i.e., eligible for arbitration after his second year), in which case he would be eligible for arbitration. If he’s not, the Braves will probably sign him for a modest raise over his current $435,000 salary.
  • Kris Medlen (RHP): The rookie righty will spend most, if not all, of 2011 in the DL recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Jordan Schafer (OF): The once highly touted outfield prospect was last seen being demoted to AA Mississippi in July and assigned to the DL in August. The Braves will probably keep him around in 2011 for around the minimum and hope he figures it out.
  • Brandon Beachy (RHP): Called up to make an emergency start for Mike Minor in September, he went on to pitch decently in his for two major league starts. I suspect we may see more of him next year and will likely remain on the 40-man roster.
  • Brooks Conrad (UT): The Braves signed Conrad out of spring training as a bench guy who could play every position on the infield, winning out over Joe Thurston due to his defense. He then went on to become an Atlanta folk hero when he capped off a ridiculous 9th inning rally last May with a pinch-hit walk off grand slam. However, he was a 30-year old rookie for a reason, as he still swings at a lot of breaking stuff out of the zone. The statement in the first sentence about his defense became extremely ironic after the Braves had no choice but to play him everyday after Martin Prado suffered his season ending injury the last week of September. Conrad went on to commit more errors than games played, including costly errors that led directly to losses in the playoffs. Hopefully the dude gets it straightened out. Provided he does, the Braves may look to maintain his services for a price around the minimum.
  • Micheal Dunn (LHP): Dunn should play a huge role in the future of the Braves bullpen. For starters, he’s left handed and breathing. Secondly, he throws an upper-90’s fastball with a nasty slider. As rookie, the Braves control him for couple more years.
  • Freddie Freeman (1B): The Braves’s first baseman of the future didn’t do much of anything in a September callup, but the organization really wants him to be ready next spring. He hit well at AAA Gwinett after recovering from an injury filled 2009 that reduced his numbers. If he can hit around .300 with 15+ HRs in Atlanta he would be the best Braves first baseman in awhile.
  • Diory Hernandez (UT): Hernandez was called up in late July to supplement the bench when Martin Pardo went on the DL for the first time, and spent most of his days in Atlanta riding the pine. He will probably continue to the same or start 2011 at Gwinett.
  • Jason Heyward (OF): The Braves new everyday right fielder faltered down the stretch and in the playoffs, but he likely has a long major league career ahead of him. Since he was a rookie, though, the Braves will be able to resign him on the cheap in 2011.
  • Craig Kimbrel (RHP): Kimbrel is the popular guess to replace Billy Wagner as the Braves’s closer next year, and why not? He has nasty stuff and averages two strikeouts per inning. He’ll get a shot at it in the spring.
  • Cristhian Martinez (RHP): Martinez became the Braves’s long man/emergency starter later in the year as Kenshin Kawakami declined, and was even on the postseason roster in favor of him. He had a 3.08 ERA but only a 1.006 WHIP in 52.2 innings at AAA and showed similar stats in the 26 innings with the big club. For a guy the Braves got off waivers from the Marlins, he’s worked out pretty well.
  • Mike Minor (LHP): The Braves added Minor to the roster to replace Kris Medlen, and at first, he didn’t disappoint. However, the stresses of his first full professional season (he pitched 134.1 innings in the minors before being called up) got to him at the end of the season as he started to run out of gas and was eventually replaced by Brandon Beachy. However, I would suspect he remains part of the Braves’s plans for their rotation of the future and probably has a chance to start the year with the big club as a 5th starter.
  • Jonny Venters (LHP): “Everyday” Jonny Venters pitched almost everyday for the Braves down the stretch and responded well before the last weekend, where he was obviously tired. The three days off before the playoffs started rejuvenated him and he pitched well in the postseason. He has a bright future with the club.

Other Guys on the 40-Man Roster

  • J.C. Boscan (C): The Crash Davis-esque minor league vet finally got a cup of coffee in September. However, unlike Crash Davis, he only hit 5 HR in AAA with a .250 average. I can’t say I know a whole lot of about Braves catching prospects, but the spent nearly all of 2010 with 2 catchers on the 40-man roster, and I suspect Boscan will be designated back to AAA after the World Series to free up room.
  • Kyle Cofield (RHP): I don’t know anything about this kid other than the he was drafted in 2005 and was put on the 40-man roster this year (probably to avoid exposing him to the Rule 5 draft).
  • Brandon Hicks (SS/3B): Hicks broke his right index finger and was put on the 60-day DL in September to free up space on the 40-man roster. I can’t honestly say I know the Braves plans are for him, though in 2011 they may use him as a sort of designated backup for Chipper if/when he returns or a last resort if they can’t find anyone to play short.
  • Lee Hyde (LHP): The 2006 4th round pick out of Georgia Tech (woo!), Hyde was probably put on the 40-man last November to avoid the Rule 5 draft. I suspect he’ll stay there despite a 4.29 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in Gwinett this year as long as he is physically able to throw using his left arm and run on to the field.
  • Jose Ortegano (LHP): Yet another Braves signee out of Venezuela, 2010 was not a good year for him. He was signed in 2006 so he will likely remain on the 40-man for now to avoid the Rule 5 draft.
  • Stephen Marek (RHP): Marek seems to have figured it out in AAA this year, posting a 1.43 ERA in 50.1 innings of relief and 56 strikeouts to only 19 walks. I would bet he gets an invite to camp next spring.
  • Luis Valdez (RHP): He’s listed on the 40-man roster despite not actually being on it, as he’s been on the restricted list since March due to visa issues and hasn’t been heard from since.

And a final note

This was the most fun year I’ve had as a Braves fan in awhile. It pains me to see it end like like it did, and this post is one of my main ways of coping. I’m 25, and I’ve been watching the Braves probably since I was 5. I’ve never known any other baseball teams, much less any other managers. It will be bizarre seeing some other guy sitting in that Braves dugout next year. It will be weird watching a broadcast and not hearing the familiar shouts of encouragement from the top step of the dugout. It will be weird when all of players no longer have nicknames that end with a “-y”.

The next guy, whoever he is (and there seem to be a real scarcity of rumors around this – either it’s already been decided or people aren’t talking about it out of respect)… well, he’s going to have some awfully big cleats to fill.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

It’s week 6! Doesn’t feel like it, does it?

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Indiana @ Ohio State (ESPN): Here’s the thing about Indiana. They’re Indiana. With Ohio State’s newfound penchant for beating up on less opponents, they should win easily.
  • Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): The Zook Era is probably over at Illinois anyway. But this game probably isn’t going to help things.
  • Texas Tech vs. Baylor (@Dallas, TX; FSN): Texas Tech was on the receiving end of an upset beatdown, while Baylor was on the giving end. College football blogger types have been waiting for Baylor QB Robert Griffin, who finally had his breakout game against Kansas, where Baylor rolled 55-7. Also fun is the fact that this game is being held at and during the Texas State fair, though unlike last week’s Red River Shootout I’m not aware of any good nickname for this game between two other Big 12 South rivals. At any rate, I’m going against all my college football instincts and picking Baylor to win.
  • Central Michigan @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): VPI, unless they confuse CMU for JMU or something.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin.
  • Tennessee @ Georgia (SEC): UGA is not running good right now, as they ended being trampled (ha-ha!) by a late Buffalo comeback last week. Tennessee, of course, lost as only a team can lose to LSU: in the most chaotic and crazy way possible. Presumably, the Vols have learned their lesson and probably will have no more than 11 folks on the field at any given time to secure the win.
  • Boston College @ North Carolina State (ACC): BC is always a decent team, but this year they seem to lack any decent quarterbacks. Russell Wilson should be able to get back on track in this one.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ South Carolina (CBS): I feel pretty good about saying this is Alabama’s last major challenge until Auburn. Yes, I know LSU and Auburn are both higher ranked than South Carolina, but the mere idea of a Nick Saban team losing to Les Miles is almost enough to make my head explode. While South Carolina is a legit threat, I suspect the Tide will dispose of them the same way they do all their threats. As EDSBS’s Orson Swindle put it last week, Alabama plays football like they hate it, as though they’re bored with it. That ruthless efficiency will allow them to win again in Columbia, most likely.
  • Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (NBC): The most recent image in my head for either of these teams is Pitt getting mercilessly pounded by Miami, so I’m going to take ND here.
  • Michigan State @ Michigan (ABC/ESPN): Two undefeated teams will enter, but only one will leave! This is shaping up to be the best iteration of this rivalry in years, and is fully worth your support. As a Tech fan, it’s hard not to sympathize with Michigan State, which along with GT and teams like Texas A&M have an arch-nemesis who doesn’t really reciprocate. Both these teams appear good from the available data. Michigan has one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country, and Michigan State has a coach who is back only a few weeks after a heart attack. Of course, as Doc Saturday points out, this undefeated starts bears a resemblance to last year’s 4-0 start for Michigan, a streak which was broken by the Spartans. That said, being the home team and possessing the superior offense, I have to pick Michigan.
  • Clemson @ North Carolina (ABC/ESPN/Gameplan): Clemson ended up losing by 9 to Miami last week, but there’s no real shame in that. UNC has rebounded from an 0-2 start to pull up to 2-2, with wins over moribund Rutgers and East Carolina. Against quality competition, I basically consider both these teams 0-2, and with all the drama surrounding Carolina right now I have to pick the Tigers.
  • Arkansas vs. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (@Arlington, TX; ABC/Gameplan): Dallas is basically the capital of the college football world for the day, with the early game up at the Cotton Bowl and this game down at Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace. Do not be fooled by TAMU’s 3-1 record, for the “3” part of that comes against teams like Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International (whom they only beat by a touchdown). Arkansas has also had a bye week to recover from their last minute collapse against Alabama, and should be on the right track here to beat the Aggies.
  • California-Los Angeles @ California (FSN): Hey, remember that time Cal lost by three touchdowns to Nevada as the Wolfpack ran all over them for 316 yards? Hey, remember that time UCLA beat Texas by three touchdowns while rushing for 264 yards? Now recall that UCLA installed Nevada’s offense and, well, I’ll be taking the Bruins over the Bears.
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): It’s homecoming. I’m generally against scheduling homecoming against conference foes (especially we play MTSU at home next week), but I’m not in charge of these things. As for the football game? Well, we basically played like crap again until sometime around the 8-minute mark in the 4th quarter the offensive collectively woke up and realized, “hey wait, we’re losing to Wake Forest”. From there, GT went on a tear as it methodically came back. Dropped passes and missed blocks – two of GT’s main problems – are mostly issues of execution, not talent. This team has the talent to succeed if it plays four quarters of football. They just need to play like it if they want to beat UVA two years in a row for the first time since 1990 and 1991.
  • Wyoming @ Texas Christian (CBSCS): This is an away game for the Cowboys, so definite no brown tops. Boise beat these guys 51-6, so I figure that’s about where the bar is for TCU.

7:00:

  • Colorado @ Missouri (FSN): We’ve talked plenty about 5th down. These Tigers are undefeated, but against, well, terrible teams. Fortunately for them, this edition of Colorado is pretty bad. I’ll take Mizzou.
  • Oregon State @ Arizona (Versus): I think Oregon State’s got what it takes to take down Arizona. Arizona is 4-0, which is all well and good, but I just can’t figure out what they’ve done to deserved to be ranked 9th in the country. Which is a major part of why I’m taking the Beavers.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): I’m pretty sure Vandy can win this one against one of, if not the worst, Division I-A football team in the country.

7:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (ESPN): Don’t let Florida fans fool you, they’re still pretty good and undefeated against teams that aren’t Alabama over the past two seasons. I think they’ll beat LSU.
  • Auburn @ Kentucky (ESPN2): The Cam Newton Experience is back in action in Lexington, where Auburn should be able to beat Kentucky pretty thoroughly.
  • Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN): Purdue just lost to Toledo by 11. Toledo. I’ll take Northwestern to run it to a not really that improbable 6-0, considering the schedule they’ve played.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Stanford (ABC/Gameplan): If you’d told me even two years ago that Stanford would ever be a double-digit favorite over USC I’d have thought you were crazy. And yet, here we are. Andrew Luck and Co. should be ready to exploit USC’s entirely too forgiving defense while avenging their loss to Oregon.
  • Florida State @ Miami (ABC/Gameplan): FSU and Miami are ranked again! It’s everything the ACC ever wanted! Well, except that each of these teams lost to superior teams from other conferences already, so not so much. Also, FSU’s pass defense still seems to be somewhat terribly, giving nice, soft and juicy coverages for Jacory Harris to exploit mercilessly. Miami should win pretty easily, unless Harris has one of his “bad days”.
  • Mississippi State @ Houston (CBSCS): With their all-everything QB, Houston would have a very good chance to win this game, but since he isn’t have to take Miss State.

10:30: San Jose State @ Nevada (ESPNU): Last year’s edition of this game is what led to one of the quotes down at the bottom of this page. Oh, and last weekend SJSU let DI-AA UC-Davis score two unanswered touchdowns to rally and win 14-13. (I was eating dinner with some friends when I overheard someone else in the restaurant ask someone how SJSU did. They just said, “well, we lost” and left out the part about losing to Davis.) I would expect something similar to last year’s 62-7 route, but hey there’s nothing else on this late and watching Nevada run their offense can be pretty entertaining.

That’s all for now. Bowl predictions are almost here! They’ll debut after the BCS comes out next week (as in, after Week 7).

20 Years Ago Today: 5th Down

20 years ago today, the most egregious mistake in the history of college football officiating took place: Colorado was given an extra down, down by 4 with under a minute left at Missouri. Skip to around the 2:45 mark in the following video, when Colorado gets their first first and goal:

Not only was an absolute failure of the officials’ most basic responsibility, it also had national title implications. 1-loss (and tied) Colorado would later go on to be #1 in the Associated Press poll, while undefeated (but tied) Georgia Tech would go on to be #1 in the Coaches’ Poll. Had Colorado not been given an extra down, it’s extremely possible they would’ve lost. (I also personally don’t think the guy even got into the end zone, but I’ve never seen a clear replay of it from any angle other than the ones in that video.)

I’m pretty sure there’s really only two college fanbases that really still care about this: us (by which I mean Georgia Tech fans) and Missouri fans. Well, this Saturday Colorado will play Missouri in that very same stadium. (Incidentally, Tech also has a 20th anniversary rematch this weekend, as they take on Virginia, who were ranked #1 at the time. They beat UVA on a last-second field goal in Charlottesville. They wouldn’t win there again until last year.)

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a good article about the incident.

The write up should be up as usual on Friday/Saturday morning.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

Before we dive in, I’d like to go tell the SID at Colorado who wrote the blurb quoted in this UGA blog (of all places) to go die in a fire. To save you from having to click that link, I’ll reproduce it here:

Now apparently, our use of the word “consensus” upsets a few folks around the country. It’s not to slam the others, but rather to strengthen CU’s case for that season since many point to the Fifth Down game or the clip on Raghib Ismail’s punt return in the Orange Bowl and say our title is tainted. But fact is fact; at the time nine (*) basic postseason polls were recognized as determining a unanimous or consensus national champion; Colorado topped six of those: *Associated Press, *FWAA (Football Writers Association of America), *National Football Foundation/College Football Hall of Fame (MacArthur Trophy), *USA Today-CNN, *Sporting News and *Football News; Georgia Tech won the *United Press International poll (by 1 point) and Miami, Fla., the *Sagarin and *New York Times computer ratings. In the NCAA Record book listing for 1990, it shows 19 different groups that declared a national champion; 11 voted outright for Colorado and three each for Georgia Tech and Miami; one (National Championship Foundation) split it between CU and Tech, and another (FACT, a computer ranking) voted for four, including Washington.

I wish I were as funny as the Fire Joe Morgan guys so I could tear this apart the way it deserves, but alas, they’re actually people who are paid to be funny while I’m a programmer who doesn’t update his own site more than once a week, if that. (By the way, those guys posted a whole bunch of stuff on Deadspin last week. It was pretty awesome.) So here are my criticisms, in order:

  • Well, I’m upset because you apparently don’t know what the word “consensus” means. Generally, you only get to say you’re the “consensus” national champion in college football if you were ranked first the most important polls of the day. (This is true even in the BCS era, with the AP poll still having significant clout.) 
  • If it’s not to slam “the others”, then why do you keep saying this? I’m from the South. This is like when someone says, “well, bless their heart, but…” You’re trying to insult someone without saying you’re insulting them.
  • The anniversary of the 5th down game is this coming Wednesday, by the way. October 6, 1990, never forget. Well, at least if you’re a Georgia Tech or Missouri fan.
  • I’m going to say your title is tainted, because it is. Had you not had the most incompetent officials in the world against Mizzou you would’ve had two losses.
  • Widely regarded by whom? At the time, the UPI poll was the Coaches Poll, so that and the AP Poll are generally recognized by most sources are the two most important.
  • The NCAA record book is irrelevant for determining Division I-A national titles. In case you haven’t noticed, the NCAA is sort of bitter about the fact it doesn’t control the I-A national championship (hence why the divisions are “Bowl Subdivision” and “Championship Subdivision” and not I-A and I-AA anymore). So in an effort to undermine the current system they award a championship anytime anyone ranks you number one.

Anyway, I just wanted to rant about that. Let’s move on.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (ESPN): The best thing, by far, to come out of this game is this entry from what has to be the world’s only Northwestern sports blog. (If there are others, I’m not sure I want to know about them.) Also, Minnesota is, like, really bad.
  • Miami @ Clemson (ESPN2): Things we know about Miami: Boy, Jacory Harris can sure throw some interceptions! Things we know about Clemson: man, they barely lost to Auburn! In other words, we don’t know much either way. I’ll take the non-Dabo coached team, which is Miami.
  • Kansas @ Baylor (FSN): Well, this has to be one of the games the Bears circled on their schedule as a “winnable Big 12 game”. Them being Baylor, though, I’ll see it when I believe it.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (ESPNU): Auburn.
  • Temple @ Army (CBSCS): Army’s 3-1! Of course, it comes mostly from beating up on teams like… Temple. Well, Temple of a few years ago, not the Temple that gave Penn State all it wanted and beat UConn. (You know that had to feel good around the Temple athletics offices.) I’ll still take Army here though.
  • Ohio State @ Illinois (BTN): In the past, I would’ve said the Sweatervest would take his 31 points and call it a day. Apparently someone released him from his chains, though. This one could be ugly.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss went and beat Fresno last weekend, which I think says more about Fresno than it does Ole Miss. Unfortunately, all we know about Kentucky is that they got pounded by Florida last weekend, which I’m pretty sure was a given. So this is a tossup, and I’ll give the edge to the team that didn’t lose to Jacksonville State.
  • Florida State @ Virginia (ACC): FSU.

2:30: Navy @ Air Force (Versus): It’s the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy, and with Navy off to a relatively so start this may be Air Force’s year. I’ll take them.

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Louisiana State (CBS): As has been thoroughly established by now, LSU is the most precarious 4-0 team in the country after last week’s… “game” against West Virginia. That said, Tennessee needed overtime to beat UAB, so I’ll take LSU to become the most precarious 5-0 team in the country. (By the way, check out Les Miles’s zen koan down at the bottom of the page. Also, how does he know what the word “scotoma” means?)
  • Wisconsin @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN): Given Wisconsin’s out-of-conference schedule, you’d expect them to be 4-0 at this point so I have no idea what to make of them. Meanwhile, Mark Dantonio returns after his heart attack. That should give Sparty the early edge, at least. I’ll take them for the game.
  • Texas vs. Oklahoma (@Dallas, TX; ABC/ESPN): It’s the Red River Shootout! All that stuff about Texans willing to fry anything, by the way? It’s totally true. I was in Austin earlier this year and I had Dr Pepper flavored chicken wings. (They also love their Dr Pepper, which was great for my taste buds but terrible for my arteries. Actually, that’s a good description for that entire trip.) Getting back to the game, well, neither of these teams play much defense, but Texas doesn’t really play much offense either. Oh, and they got torn apart by UCLA last weekend. It probably won’t be a blowout, but I like the Sooners here.
  • Virginia Tech @ North Carolina State (ABC/Gameplan): Russell Wilson’s pretty good, especially when your defense admits it has no idea what it’s doing. Not that I’m bitter. All I’m going to say is that NCSU better win this game.
  • Michigan @ Indiana (ESPNU): Michigan.

 7:00:

  • Georgia @ Colorado (FSN): Here’s a mixed feelings game. The reason for the press release at the top of this post is because CU will be celebrating the 20th anniversary of their share of the 1990 national title today. Now, the timing seems pretty odd to me. I don’t know why you’d do this against an out-of-conference opponent, unless they figured UGA was the closest they were going to get to scheduling us or something. It’s also one of the two weekends they could’ve picked that are closest to the 5th down game, which I’m not sure is something I’d want to celebrate. Whatever. This is a “hope for the meteor” game for me.
  • Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): My favorite thing about this game is the fact it isn’t at noon eastern, or 9 AM my time. Kansas is just as bad as these guys, so GT really needs to actually come out for this game. We just looked completely out-of-sorts against NC State and it showed on both sides of the ball. Turnovers are up on offense, while the defense is seemingly helpless on third downs. I honestly have no idea what to expect from GT this year from week-to-week, but I just hope it starts improving. Going back to the above for a second: GT is saving the 20th anniversary celebration for its biggest home game of the year, November 13th against Miami.

8:00:

  • Florida @ Alabama (CBS): GAME OF THE WEEK OF THE YEAR OF THE CENTURY. It’s the well-anticipated rematch of last year’s SEC title game, which I never saw (I was too busy standing in a parking lot in an entirely too cold Tampa) but as far as I can tell was pretty lackluster. Anyway, this game features 100% less Tim Tebow but ESPN’s already hyping “Tebow-Lite” so I’m sure the CBS guys (who I actually like!) will mention him approximately 1000 times. That said, I’ll take the chalk and take Bama, but root for the other superpower. Watching these two teams as a neutral fan must be like what it felt like to be in the “Third World” during the Cold War (when that term meant something).
  • Stanford @ Oregon (ABC/ESPN2): In my mind, this could actually be a better game. This should be the first opponent to challenge either team, and should be a good game to watch. I have to give the Ducks the slight edge up in Eugene, though.
  • Notre Dame @ Boston College (ABC/Gameplan): I’ll take the team that has an actual quarterback. I’m not sure BC would’ve worse off last week just snapping it to no one, that’s how bad they were.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Iowa (ESPN): Look, I think Arizona’s an okay team and all, but Iowa was one of my Big Ten favorites for the first time in forever, and once again in the grand tradition of this site, they let me down. So I’ll take Penn State.
  • Washington @ Southern California (ESPN2): USC.
  • Marshall @ Southern Mississippi (CBSCS): USM.

And with that I’m done. By the way, if you want to see a team try to reach 100, Boise’s playing New Mexico State on espn3.com.