Monthly Archives: October 2007

Bowl Predictions, Week 1

Here we go kids. Here they are. I kind of explain the process during last week’s first set. This year for our first week I’ll try to make sense of the season and take a conference-by-conference look at the predictions, as well as a BCS section. That said, this is all pretty much a crap shoot the way this season is going.

The BCS:
The BCS rules are laid out on the prediction page, so I won’t bother here. What I will say is that my process for the BCS goes something along the lines of synthesizing the current standings with what I think will happen. So for now this yields a title game matchup of Ohio State and South Florida. I don’t think USF is as illegitimate as a lot of people may think. They have out-of-conference wins over UNC and at Auburn, and a victory over still highly-regarded West Virginia.

Other potential title game contenders include the other teams in the top 5: BC, Oklahoma, and LSU. LSU was (rightly) not penalized for losing to Kentucky, with some losses by other top teams could find themselves in New Orleans. Of course, according to me, they’ll end up there anyway, but we’ll get there in a bit.

The other conference winners, according to me, will be Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU, and Oregon. While a loss in Blacksburg Thursday does sink BC’s title game chances (well, in all likelihood), it does not end their ACC Title game chances. Oregon is my pick to come out of the three-way choas created by Cal’s loss to Oregon State. So they all go to their respective bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose).

So the Rose has the first shot at the remaining eligible teams, since they lose Ohio State to the title game. And, well, I have my doubts they’ll be excited about what they see. There is history of SEC teams going to Rose Bowls in the distant past (i.e., before World War II Alabama went to a few games and Georgia Tech even went to one). So I put Kentucky there, assuming they’ll do well the rest of the way. I figure West Virginia will be able to go to a BCS game and land in the Orange (though they could end up in the Rose as well, sending Kentucky to the Orange). I like Cal going to the Fiesta, though in retrospect perhaps this should be USC, or maybe even someone else because for my Oregon scenario they each need 2 losses. I’ll re-examine this next week. Moving on, I then put Kansas in the Sugar because they’ll be the most appealing team left.

The ACC:
Since I have BC going to the Orange Bowl, then my predicted ACC runner-up will be Virginia Tech, who then will go to the Gator.

It gets a lot harder after that.

Thanks to their good record right now, I have Virginia in the Gator Bowl spot, though I doubt this will remain the status quo. Clemson slots nicely to the Champs Spots Bowl, and then we have the ACC# 5/6/7 cluster for the Music City, Car Care, and Emerald Bowls. In perhaps a bit of homerism, I have Maryland getting exiled out west while Florida State and Georgia Tech go to the Car Care and Music City Bowls. Assuming Miami loses to FSU, they’ll bring up the rear and make a return trip to Boise, though the league may send Maryland or FSU there instead.

The Big East:
I have both USF and WVU going to the BCS. The Big East #2 pick goes to either the Gator or Sun Bowls (see the page), and so this year I see Cincinnati going to the Sun Bowl (otherwise, the Sun will be stuck with Big East teams in 2008 and 2009). I like Rutgers to go Charlotte to play FSU and UConn to go up north, leaving Louisville to salvage to the remains of their season in Birmingham.

The Big 12:
The choas has hit especially hard in the Big 12, with both of the traditional Big 12 South powers losing before they played each other. Nonetheless, I see Oklahoma winning the conference and having a Fiesta. However, assuming Kansas’s only loss is to OU in the Big 12 Title Game, then they could very easily still qualify for the BCS, so I’ve slotted them into the Sugar Bowl.

The Cotton Bowl will take the aerial show of Texas Tech, sending Texas out to the official start of interest-worthy bowls, the Holiday Bowl. TAMU slots in nicely to the Alamo Bowl, followed by Kansas State going to the Gator (see the Big East for why). The sixth pick goes to one of the two games that no one will see, the Insight Bowl, due to being on the NFL Network, unfortunate if you’re a fan of the Missouri Tigers. The next slot is the Independence Bowl, where I send Colorado, and last and certainly least is the other game no one will see, the Texas Bowl, where the greatest offense on Earth, Oklahoma State, winds up.

The Big Ten:
After everyone’s favorite “whoops!” moment of the year (Michigan losing to Appalachian State), the Big Ten was written off. And it probably still should be, as it will probably only send Ohio State to the BCS, leaving the Rose without its coveted Big Ten team as none will probably qualify.

Michigan, at the rate they are going, may well finish runner-up in the conference and end up with a nice payout in the Capital One Bowl, a nice finish after the way they started. I sent Penn State to the Outback, followed by Illinois going to San Antonio. Indiana finishes their surprising season in Orlando. Wisconsin finishes its disappointing season in Tempe, with Michigan State staying local and going to the Motor City Bowl.

“But wait!” you may say, “what about Purdue and Northwestern?” Indeed. Purdue has 5 wins and Northwestern has 4, and both should/could qualify. In the past, the Big Ten has had trouble filling its 7 bids but this year appears not to be the care. Parity is good for the old bottom line, it seems. I see Northwestern getting the shaft and Purdue (spoiler alert!) going to the Armed Forces Bowl to fill in for a Pac-10 team.

Conference USA:
Conference USA has a hearty 5 bids, the most of any mid-major. I predict East Carolina to win the whole shebang and earn a bid to the Liberty Bowl.

More than anywhere else, mid-majors generally have teams picked out-of-order to increase the chance of the game actually selling tickets. This is why I almost always pick Southern Miss to go to the GMAC bowl in Mobile, as it’s about a 2 hour drive away. My predicted title game runner-up, Tulsa, then ends up in the Papajohns.com Bowl, which always makes me wonder why they just don’t drop the stupid “dot-com” like everyone else did 4 years ago (c.f., “insight.com Bowl” -> Insight Bowl”). The last two bids are held by geographically-named bowls (New Orleans and Hawaii), where the conference might be represented by UTEP and Central Florida.

Independents:
Navy will easily qualify for its berth in the Poinsettia Bowl. At 1-6, Notre Dame will probably not reel off a 5-game winnings streak and miss a bowl game for the first time since 2003. Were I a lesser man, I would make a quip about how this helps postpone them extending their consecutive bowl games without a win streak. I’m not, so I won’t.

The MAC:
The Mid-American Conference has 3 bids. Though it says its champion can go to either the Motor City or GMAC Bowls, due to geographic proximity the champion almost always goes to the Motor City. This will probably happen again, with Central Michigan heading to Detroit. I then like Miami of Ohio to go Mobile and Ball State to go to Toronto.

The MWC:
The Mountain West Conference has 4 bids. Its champion goes to Las Vegas, and BYU is destroying most of its conference foes so far, so I’ll send them there. Wyoming goes to San Diego, Air Force to the Armed Forces Bowl, and then New Mexico to the New Mexico Bowl. Falls into place nicely, I’d say.

The Pac-10:
Though this will probably change next week, I have both Oregon and Cal going to BCS games. I like Southern Cal then to go to the Holiday Bowl against Texas. Traditional powers, usually good game, etc., etc. Next up is the Sun Bowl, where I’ll send Arizona State.

After that, the Pac-10’s games aren’t all that great, in terms of stature. I like UCLA going to the Las Vegas Bowl and Oregon State to the Emerald, leaving the Armed Forces Bowl without a team. (Of the current 2-win teams, Washington probably has the best chance of winning 6.)

The SEC:
LSU and Kentucky will both go to the BCS in these projections. “However,” you say, “didn’t South Carolina beat Kentucky?” Why yes they did! But I never said that Kentucky would go to the SEC title game, did I? Late losses usually kill teams, so South Carolina’s loss will probably know them out of the top 14 of the BCS and send them to the Capital One Bowl.

The SEC groups their 3-5 and 6-8 picks, presumably to give the bowls more flexibility who they chose. I like Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee to finish in the 3-5 cluster and end up in the Peach, Outback, and Cotton bowls respectively. I like Alabama in the Music City to face Tech, Arkansas in Memphis, and Georgia in Shreveport.

The Sun Belt:
Troy has won 4 straight and I like that trend to continue. FAU also has a shot, but Troy has just dominated everyone since that Oklahoma State game.

The WAC:
The WAC has three bowl bids, all primarily designed to give their remote teams somewhere to go if they qualify. In a rare move, the Humanitarian Bowl actually gains its old name back after being known by it’s sponsor (Micron) for the past few years. (Hint, hint Chick-fil-a Bowl.) Boise State will almost certainly end up there. Then there’s the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii is 18th in the initial BCS, so even if they do win out I highly doubt they’ll be able to climb high enough to qualify. So Hawaii stays there. For the New Mexico Bowl, I pretty much threw a dart and it landed on Fresno State, so there you go.

Anyway, that’s all for this week. I’ll update these every Monday the rest of the way, with the the release of each new BCS. This season has been wacky so far, so these are very subject to change.

Week Eight

Despite two notable exceptions, the college football world seemed to right itself this weekend. Most of the teams in the top 25 took care of business from the get-go. #3 Ohio State slammed Kent State 48-3, #5 South Florida beat Central Florida 64-12, and #9 Oregon trashed Washington State 53-7. Virginia Tech, Arizona State, and Texas dominated, too. Boston College, the USCs, and Georgia let their opponents hang around until the end. Penn State embarrassed #19 Wisconsin 38-7, and #20 Kansas continued their march to a division title with a 58-10 decision over Baylor. (Admittedly, they were playing Baylor.)

“Maybe we should try to go into the other team’s end zone.”

As you well know, the top two teams in the country lost last evening. This is the eighth time that both have done so in one weekend since 1964 and the first time since 1996. Cal fell thanks to a poor decision by first-time starter Kevin Riley, who decided to run the ball with 0:10ish left rather than throw it away. Only when he fell to the ground did he realize that his team was out of time-outs. There are probably more reasons for the Bears’ collapse, but they are in the Pac-10, so they aren’t worth a more detailed analysis.

Somebody at ESPN.com needs to proofread a little closer.

LSU fell, too, in a triple-overtime thriller against up-and-coming Kentucky. The majority of the credit goes to Wildcat QB Andre’ Woodson, who threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns. He even VINCE YOUNGed into the end zone through a gap so wide that I could have done the same. Woodson’s performance was impressive, but the Wildcat defense won the game. LSU failed to gain a first down in four tries on the ground, the last coming about a yard short. Colt David almost saved his team with a ridiculous 57-yard field goal attempt as time expired; he had the distance but not the angle.

This is what happens when you let a conference doormat beat a juggernaut. People lie down on football fields.

Auburn’s transformation appears genuine, though touchdowns are few and far between. The Tigers inched out a 9-7 win over Arkansas thanks to the powerful (and sometimes inaccurate) leg of freshman kicker Wes Byrum. Byrum sealed his place in Auburn football history by performing the Gator chomp after his game-winning field goal(s) against Florida. He missed two longer attempts against the Razorbacks but redeemed himself by splitting the uprights to put Auburn ahead.

“IN YOUR FACE, URBAN MEYER!”

The Tiger defense continued to impress. Arkansas’ run game only managed 67 yards, ending McFadden’s run (yuk yuk) at the Heisman. That effectively shut down the Razorback offense by forcing Casey Dick to throw the ball, which he can’t do. I’m not sure why they play him at all with receiver Marcus Monk injured. One of my friends suggested that McFadden should be the starting quarterback. That makes sense to me.

A DVR is a wonderful tool.

I’m looking forward to this weekend. Kansas goes to Colorado to continue their Big 12 quest. USC returns to South Bend, but this time the Trojans don’t have much to lose (or the best offense of all time) (3:30 PM ET, NBC). Miami and Florida State face off in what used to be an epic struggle (3:30 PM ET, ABC). Down-and-out Nebraska and Texas A&M meet for yet another showdown of disappointments.

Every time I see this picture, I get a sick feeling in my stomach.

The SEC boasts three major matchups: Florida at Kentucky (3:30 PM ET, CBS), Tennessee at Alabama (4:30 PM ET, CBS), and Auburn at LSU (9 PM ET, ESPN). No one knows what will happen in Lexington. ‘Bama just squeaked by Ole Miss and Tennessee is on a roll, so I’m guessing the Tide will pull off another bogus comeback win. Tuberville is 14/15 in SEC road stadiums, but his one loss was against LSU in 2005. (Thanks a lot, John Vaughn.) I’m considering making the drive to Baton Rouge to redeem my unfaithfulness over the Florida game.

Nope, your game-winning field goal against Georgia does not erase the five misses against LSU. Nice try.

P.S. I forgot to mention that Michigan State won a 52-27 beatdown of Indiana. My fingers are crossed for a victory over Ohio State in Buckeye Stadium, which hasn’t happened since 1987. Go Spartans!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and most predictions wrong.

Noon:

Georgia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): I don’t know what to say about GT anymore. Hopefully Tenuta gets the last laugh over Patrick Nix.
Illinois @ Iowa (ESPN2): The chance of me watching this game is pretty much somewhere around 0%. Illinois should win handily, but with the Zookinator at the helm anything can happen.
Virginia Tech @ Duke (Raycom/Gameplan): Duke will be a soothing salve for VPI’s offensive woes.

12:30:

Texas @ Iowa State (FSN): Stranger things have happened. And not in the distant past, either, but this very year. That said, Texas would have to be really reeling to lose to this throughly terrible Cyclone bunch.
Alabama @ Mississippi (LF/Gameplan): I’ll give you two reasons to watch this game. The first is because since it starts 30 minutes later, this game will be going on while the noon games are still in half time. The other is always the outside chance someone interview The Orgeron, which is a treat in and of itself. As for the game, ‘Bama should (unfortunately) win.

3:30:

Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC): Perhaps ND got it together last week at UCLA. However, Boston College is a seriously good team, and although it would fit into the calculus of this season there is really no way they should lose to Notre Dame.
Louisiana State @ Kentucky (CBS): I can’t help but think Kentucky has been feasting on a diet of delicious cupcakes. LSU meanwhile, has pretty much the best defense in the country hands-down. South Carolina held them to 23, and I expect LSU to do worse. That said, I also don’t expect LSU to score a whole bunch, so it’ll be a tight game that the Tigers win in the end.
Wisconsin @ Penn State (ESPN/ABC): Woo? Wisconsin isn’t nearly as good as their 5-1 record might lead you to believe, but Penn State has lost to Illinois as well. Let’s just take the home team and move on.
South Carolina @ North Carolina (Gameplan/ABC/ESPN): Okay, moving on to this may not have been such a good idea. South Carolina is pretty darn good, UNC is not. From an OOC scheduling standpoint, I like the game, but otherwise not so much.
Arizona @ Southern California (ABC/Gameplan): I cannot fathom a way USC loses this game. Then again, I would have said the same last week as well. If I had a hat, I’d put it on the line here, because if USC loses to another crappy team I would eat my hat. If I had one.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): This is a pretty important Big 12 South title – not too often schools not named “Texas” or “Oklahoma” get to say that. It’s hard to say who’s better here, both have what I consider to be not-so-great losses (Miami for TAMU, Oklahoma St. for TTU). I think if Tech can pile up the points early, and they probably should, they will win. Of course, if it’s a shootout, that also favors TTU. So I guess what I’m trying to say here is that Texas Tech should win.

6:00: Georgia @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2): I am desperately rooting for two in a row here. Vandy got torched at Auburn last week, however, and may have a hard time picking themselves back up. Also, UGA probably isn’t too happy about losing their homecoming game last year. Take the mutts, but root for the Commodores.

6:30: Missouri @ Oklahoma (FSN): By playing absolutely no one, Mizzou is 5-0. OU has already lost to a Big 12 North team – can the Tigers tilt the balance completely in favor of the north this year? I don’t really think Missouri is better than Texas, to be completely honest, and I also think the Sooners should win.

7:00: Oregon State @ California (Versus): Thanks to last week, the Versus game will now get a mention here. That said, Cal shouldn’t really have any issues here.

7:45: Auburn @ Arkansas (ESPN): After losing to Miss. State, Auburn has really gotten its act together. Rediscovering the concept of “offense” against NMSU, they beat Florida and whipped Vandy. After their initial two SEC losses, Arkansas has played absolutely no one, putting the screws on North Texas and UTC. I look for the revitalized Auburn offense to put Arkansas in a hole, a position they have a really had time recovering from with their anemic passing game. Look for the Tigers to get up early, and then Arkansas to attempt a rally but never quite pass Auburn.

9:15: Colorado @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Just another day at the office for the crazy-as-hell Big 12. Despite two losses, CU is 2-0 in the conference and K-State has a loss after a hard fought game with their rival last week. So, once again, a game you might not expect to have a great deal of importance does. Being from Kansas and angered by the fact that despite needing 5-downs to beat Missouri and having a loss the Colorado sports publicist claimed this week they were the “true” champions of 1990, I’m going to go with KSU. (Sorry for the run-on sentence there.)

10:15: Washington @ Arizona State (FSN): Washington is, unfortunately, not as good as many of us thought early in the season. Saddled with 3 losses now and 0-2 in the Pac-10, UW is one the ropes. This is sort of a trap game for the Sun Devils, though – they have a bye next week before facing Cal. At 6-0 and 3-0 in the Pac-10, they can hardly afford to trip up against the Huskies. That said, the 6-0 is barely legitimate, I would say their best victory is probably the one over Colorado. Then again, there’s something to be said this year about actually being about to beat patsies (that’s pretty sad, if you ask me, but hey). The Sun Devils win, and will get to 7-0 (4-0), which will hopefully set up a pretty epic clash with against Cal in two weeks.

That’s all, folks. Also, the first BCS standings of the year come out on Sunday, so look for my initial bowl predictions then!

Week Seven

Last week, 32 of the 65 AP voters thought USC was the best team in the nation. A 27-24 win at Washington wasn’t enough to shake their confidence. A 23-24 loss to Stanford was. The Cardinal punted six times in the first half and remained scoreless until an intercepted pass by John David Booty (whose name is always referenced in full) was returned for a touchdown. Stanford scored 17 more points in the fourth quarter (including a 4th and goal touchdown pass with 54 seconds remaining in regulation) and snapped a 35 game win streak in the Coliseum. Today, the 32 errant voters finally came to their senses and voted LSU #1.

This is my favorite photo of the season thus far.

Speaking of LSU, the Tigers had quite a scare in Death Valley last night. Florida came into Baton Rouge seething from yet another loss to Auburn’s defense and special teams. Unfortunately, Tebow was not the quarterback savior that the Gator nation needed. The sophomore was 12 of 26 in the air for 158 yards and produced just 67 yards in 16 attempts on the ground. Two second half turnovers gave LSU just enough chances to overcome a ten-point deficit. You have to give some credit to the Tigers, though. Miles’ squad converted five fourth downs, one from the Florida 7 with little over 2:00 left on the clock.

Les Miles may be the angriest coach in the SEC.

On the Plains, I witnessed Auburn’s 35-7 obliteration of Vanderbilt (the Commodore touchdown was against the second string defense). Brandon Cox was 14 of 17 for 165 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and only one sack. Cox even improvised, pitching the ball forward on one play and rolling out of the pocket to throw to the end zone. Tailback Brad Lester returned from academic suspension in full force. He ran 77 yards in 13 carries and was responsible for two Tiger touchdowns. The only disappointment was that kicker Wes Byrum never had the opportunity to display his prowess. Tommy Tuberville notched his 100th win since entering the SEC. (Also, I was able to touch his hand during Tiger Walk. I will never wash mine again.)

Believe it or not, Brad Lester can fly.

In other news, Oklahoma regained composure and inched out a 28-21 win over Texas. #5 Wisconsin was finally exposed as mediocre by Illinois, and #6 South Florida almost fell to Florida Atlantic. (How USF is still ranked in the top ten is a mystery.) North Carolina beat Miami. (Read the previous sentence again if needed.) Ohio State and Penn State took care of business while Michigan struggled against their Eastern counterpart. Notre Dame finally won (thanks to the injury of UCLA’s Ben Olsen). Alabama held off previously 2-2 Houston with an interception in the end zone in the final play of the game. Kentucky’s dreams were shattered as South Carolina prepared for a run at the SEC East title. Tennessee trounced Georgia 35-14.

There isn’t much going on next weekend. There’s more than what is listed below, but I’m too lazy to write any more (all times Eastern):

12 PM, ESPN: Georgia Tech and Miami face off to determine who is the most disappointing team in the ACC.

12 PM: UCF goes to South Florida to potentially end the Bulls’ dreams.

3:30 PM, CBS: LSU goes to Kentucky to begin their destruction of the rest of the SEC. (The Tigers will not lose again after nearly falling to Florida.)

3:30 PM, NBC: #4 Boston College travels to Notre Dame to return the Irish to reality.

3:30 PM, ABC: #19 Wisconsin visits unranked Penn State (those rankings should be reversed).

7:45 PM, ESPN: #22 Auburn goes to Arkansas to see if they are really better or not.

Have fun watching!

I don’t think it is possible to overuse this picture.

The Anatomy of a Sack

or: “I’m in ur base, sackin ur qbs”

[Editor’s note: I started writing this back in August. Some of it may make less sense now. Micheal Johnson only has one sack this year, however, I believe he is still effective – in the Boston College game he drew at least 4 holding calls by himself.]

Last season, Tech was ahead by 4 with just over a minute left when a missed tackle allowed Maryland to get all the way to the 9-yard-line. Their first two plays ineffective, Maryland calls a timeout to regroup. With 41 seconds left, the ball is snapped. No more than 3 seconds later, Micheal Johnson has soundly beaten the Maryland left tackle and his pulling Sam Hollenbach to the ground. You can watch it here.

After some confusion on the initial call, Maryland is penalized for an illegal forward pass (the ref said intentional grounding, but looking it up it appears when time is involved it is technically an illegal forward pass – either way, they got the penalty right (5 yards from the spot and loss of down)). At any rate, Maryland now has a 4th and goal from the 19 yard line and 35 seconds left.
Not that it mattered – both of Maryland’s tackles got owned as Johnson and Darrell Robertson agreed to have a meeting with Hollenbach. Within another 3 seconds the game was over, as you can see here.

Today on asimsports, we’ll put our Ron Jaworski hat on as we break down why, more than anything else, Tech fans are very confident about the defensive line this year.

So let’s start with 3rd down.

There’s the snap. The left tackle, #70, is already backpedaling.

This is almost 30 frames later. There’s roughly 30 frames per second of
footage. If this is a running play, this is a decent hole on the left side of
the line. #70 has stepped to the latterly to the left, attempting to block
Micheal Johnson out of the pocket. Johnson, however, has other plans.

This is well less than a second later. Johnson has begun his spin move.

This is 17 frames after the last image. Johnson has completed his spin move.
The only way #70 can stop him now is to commit a blatant hold. The running back,
#33, does not see this occur and begins to run his delay route. This is a big
break for Tech.

Whoops. 21 frames later, #33 is now out of the play. Note compared to the
first image, the line has been moved back 3 yards. The quarterback’s 3-step
drop has him drop back 6 yards. Let’s see how fast Johnson closes the remaing
4 yards (Hollenbach has yet to finish his drop).

If you said 56 frames, or about 2 seconds, you were correct! Notice #70 is
on the ground. He fell down around frame 135 trying to turn himself around.

4th down

So here’s the snap. Note the formation – 2 WR on the left, 2 backs, a TE
on the right side of the line (so there’s no one to the right of the TE).

This is 1 one frame later. At the bottom of the screen, you see Darrell
Robertson #90. Notice he is already out of his crouch and that the TE hasn’t
moved.

This is nearly a second after the snap. The tight end is already beat as
the QB is dropped out of the back of the pocket. Both the running backs are
going out on routes. Note there are four terps blocking the two defensive tackles.

22 frames later. Poor #70. Micheal Johnson has completely faked him out. #70
was preparing to block for Johnson coming through the hole, instead Micheal
Johnson just decided to run around him. Sam Hollenbach is dropping back way too
far. The line of scrimmage was the 19, and he’s going to go back another 4 yards,
which doesn’t help his line at all.