Bowl Predictions, Week 4

So here we are again. These aren’t proofread yet, so consider them beta-quality.

I’ll share with you some of the reasoning I can remember:

  • I don’t really see anyone passing LSU in the polls at this point unless they lose. I think the only team that has a chance is an undefeated Kansas with a victory over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.
  • With Boston College losing, I’m now calling for Virginia Tech to win the ACC.
  • Provided it gets two teams into the BCS, the Pac-10 will probably be the only major conference unable to fulfill its bowl bids. Of course, I think other conferences would have similar issues if they had a 9-game schedule as well. Most BCS conference teams tend to win their OOC games unless they schedule real games or suck, and in the former case you rarely have a team that schedules more than one. Anyway, in the end the system doesn’t reward not scheduling patsies for all but the top teams (where scheduling makes a difference), so yeah.
  • Meanwhile, the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten are all in danger of having too many teams qualify for bowls. I have Miami not even making a bowl from the ACC. In the SEC, Mississippi State sits at the 5-win mark and has a game with terrible Ole Miss remaining. Vandy also sits at the 5-win mark but will not be favored in any of their remaining games. As for the ACC, Georgia Tech would do well to finish with a 4-4 in-conference mark after last Thursday’s debacle. We probably have the easiest remaining in-conference schedule (@Duke, UNC), at any rate. I predict the following 4 teams will be clamoring for the last 4 spots in the ACC bowl hierarchy: GT, FSU, Maryland, and Wake Forest. Of those, I only see GT and Wake finishing with 7-5 (or better) records, meaning that they must be picked ahead of FSU and Maryland.
  • Florida jumped from 20th to 15th place in the BCS this week, which means I’m placing them in the Sugar Bowl in place of LSU.
  • Michigan didn’t rise like I anticipated them doing. Provided they don’t again this week, I will have to drop them from the Rose and figure out who is going to go there.
  • Since Arizona State didn’t fall that much, I figure they’d be a good choice for the Fiesta provided they don’t lose again.

Anyway, that’s all I got for now. Questions? Comments? Feel free to leave them.

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