Bowl Games 2019: Talking About Playoffs

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday, December 26
4:00: Miami vs. Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN): Look, I picked Miami to win this game because there is no reason they should lose. But… Miami has also already lost multiple times this season to teams they shouldn’t have lost to. Florida International is the most obvious example, but heck even their loss to us was downright disconcerting if you’re at all concerned with goings-on in Coral Gables. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, may be the best team this season you haven’t heard of. They sort of blew a shot at the Conference USA title, but they’re 9-3 and beat that FIU team Miami lost to. This one figures, at a minimum, to continue to frustrate Miami fans.
SP+ line: Canes -12.9
Vegas line: Canes -5.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Amazingly, there have been four meetings between these teams, and all in the regular season. Miami won the first one in 1979, a 6-0 win, and then blowouts in 2000, 2003, and 2004.
Last bowl game: For the Canes, this is their seventh bowl in a row, dating back to a 36-9 loss to Louisville in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. Last season they got housed by Wisconsin 35-3 in the Pinstripe Bowl. For Louisiana Tech, this is their sixth bowl in a row, dating back to the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, a 35-18 win over Illinois.
Announcers: Wes Durham and Roddy Jones

8:00: Eastern Michigan vs. Pittsburgh (Quick Lane Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): EMU’s strange path to 6-6 involved a 34-31 win over Illinois that turned out to be the difference, as the Eagles finished 3-1 in out-of-conference play and 3-5 in the MAC, which is not typically how MAC teams get bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I have Pitt as heavy favorites here.
SP+ line: Pitt -11.2
Vegas line: Pitt -10.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just two, and EMU lost both them in blowout fashion in 1995 and 2007.
Last bowl game: For EMU, this is their fourth bowl appearance all-time, and the first time they’ve appeared in bowl games in consecutive seasons. Last season they lost 23-21 to Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl. Last season, Pitt lost 14-13 to Stanford in the Sun Bowl.
Announcers: Mike Corey and Rene Ingoglia

Friday, December 27
Noon: North Carolina vs. Temple (Military Bowl @ Annapolis, MD; ESPN): I have this one has being close and low-scoring, so I also have it as a bit of a coin-flip. Temple plays solid defense and UNC is just kinda mediocre. I have UNC as a slight favorite, but I’m not confident about it at all.
SP+ line: UNC -0.9
Vegas line: UNC -4.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Carolina’s first bowl appearance since the 2016 Sun Bowl, where they lost 25-23 to Stanford. This is Temple’s fifth bowl appearance in a row, dating back to a 32-17 loss to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. Last season they lost 56-27 to Duke in the Independence Bowl.
Announcers: Mike Couzens and Kirk Morrison

3:20: Wake Forest vs. Michigan State (Pinstripe Bowl @ New York, NY; ESPN): For a hot minute there, it looked like Wake was going to be interesting. Even after losing three of their last four they still finished 8-4, which by Wake standards is awesome. As you’ve probably figured out, though, that means they started 7-1, which probably had some in Winston-Salem with visions of a late December vacation to Miami dancing in their heads. Instead, it’s off to New York, to play perhaps the Sparty-est Michigan State team ever. I’m predicting a low-scoring win for MSU.
SP+ line: Sparty -4.4
Vegas line: Sparty -4.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Wake’s fourth bowl appearance in a row, starting with a 34-26 win over Temple in the Miltary Bowl. Last season they beat Memphis 37-34 in the Birmingham Bowl. This is Sparty’s third bowl game in a row, with the previous two being a 42-17 win over Wazzu in the Holiday Bowl and a miserable 7-6 loss to Oregon in the Redbox Bowl.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Matt Hasselback

6:45: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): While not completely historic foes (remember, the Texas schools only started regularly playing the other Big 12 schools in the mid-90’s, after the Southwest Conference collapsed and they sought refuge in what was then the Big 8), they did play each other a lot in the Big 12, and I’m sure everyone is perfectly happy that this is the Big 12 South rivalry that is being renewed in a bowl game. I certainly can’t think of any other game involving Texas A&M that anyone would want to see. At any rate, the narrative is that Texas A&M is the best 7-5 team in the country, and well, they kinda are. Their losses are to Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. Those are all teams that are definitely better than TAMU! They otherwise didn’t get upset by anyone (though they did have to dodge some close calls against Arkansas and Ole Miss). I can pretty safely that OSU would’ve lost to all those teams, and I also feel pretty good about saying they’ll lose to TAMU.
SP+ line: TAMU -5.2
Vegas line: TAMU -7.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: TAMU is 17-10 all-time against their former Big 12 conference mate. They met 12 times before the collapse of the Southwest Conference, beginning with a 3-0 OSU win in 1913. They had regular season meetings off-and-on over the decades and also met in the 1981 Independence Bowl, a 33-16 TAMU win. Overall, TAMU was 8-4 before they met in the Big 12 for the first time in 1996. A&M continued to dominate the series when it was a conference game from 1996 through 2011, compiling a 9-6 record. However, the Cowboys won the last four in a row before the Aggies fled for the SEC.
Last bowl game: This is OSU’s 14th consecutive bowl appearance, dating all the way back to a 34-31 win over Alabama in the Independence Bowl (now those were the days!). Last season they beat Mizzou 38-33 in the Liberty Bowl. For A&M, make it 11 seasons in a row with a bowl appearance, dating to the 2009 Independence Bowl, where they lost 44-20 to Georgia. Last season they beat NC State 52-13 in the Gator Bowl.
Announcers: Kevin Brown and Andre Ware

8:00: Iowa vs. Southern California (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; FS1): Well, I guess the upside of USC retaining Clay Helton is that I finally remember his name and kinda know what he looks like, which is definitely how I think most people who follow college football would call the ideal head coach for USC. After all, what is the glitz and glamor of coaching Los Angeles’s most successful football team (period) for if not shying away from it? That said, when it comes to stodgy and boring football, well, the masters are Iowa, and you’re not going to beat Iowa at their own game.
SP+ line: Iowa -1.6
Vegas line: Iowa -1.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Southern Cal is 7-2 all-time against Iowa. They first met in 1925, a 18-0 USC win. Their only 21st century meeting was a 38-17 USC win in the 2002/3 Orange Bowl.
Last bowl game: For the Hawkeyes, this is their seventh bowl appearance in a row, with the streak starting with a 21-14 loss to LSU in the 2012-13 Outback Bowl. Last season they won the Outback Bowl, with a 27-22 win over Mississippi State. USC’s last bowl appearance was the 2017 Cotton Bowl, a 24-7 loss to Ohio State.
Announcers: Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt

10:15: Air Force vs. Washington State (Cheez-It Bowl @ Phoenix, AZ; ESPN): The “III” watchability rating pretty much exists for this exact type of game. You’ve got service academy option football versus a terrible defense and the Air Raid versus an undersized defense. If you need any additional justification, just think of it as practice for staying up late to watch the playoff Saturday night. Anyway, I have Wazzu, but expect points y’all.
SP+ line: Wazzu -0.2
Vegas line: AF -2.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Air Force’s last bowl appearance was the 2016 Arizona Bowl, a 45-21 win over South Alabama. This is Wazzu’s fifth bowl game in a row, dating to the 2015 Sun Bowl, a 20-14 win over Miami. Last season they won 28-26 over Iowa State in the Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Ryan Leaf

Saturday, December 28
Noon:

  • Memphis vs. Pennsylvania State (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): And so the New Year’s Six begins. I want to believe that Memphis has a chance in this game, and with the way they can move the ball they certainly do. But it’s hard to see them prevailing in the end against Penn State.
    SP+ line: PSU -4.4
    Vegas line: PSU -6.5
    Watchability tier: IV
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game: This is the sixth bowl appearance in a row for Memphis, dating to a 55-48 win over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. Last season they lost 37-34 to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl. Penn State has made six straight bowl appearances, dating to a 31-30 win over Boston College in the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl. Last season they lost 27-24 to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl.
    Announcers: Mark Jones and Dusty Dvoracek
  • Notre Dame vs. Iowa State (Camping World Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): A pretty good Iowa State season figures to end in a loss, but hey, at least they got a trip to Orlando out of it.
    SP+ line: ND -3.6 
    Vegas line: ND -3.5
    Watchability tier: II
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game: Notre Dame has now appeared in three straight bowl games. Two seasons ago they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl, and last season Clemson tidily disposed of them 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl. Iowa State has also now appeared in three straight. Two season ago they beat Memphis 21-20 in the Liberty Bowl, and last season they lost 28-26 to Wazzu in the Alamo Bowl.
    Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Dan Orlovsky

4:00: Louisiana State vs. Oklahoma (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): And here we go. First up, we have what should be an interesting 1 vs. 4 matchup. Ultimately, I don’t think OU’s defense will be able to get enough stops to put the brakes on LSU’s offense, but this is certainly a chance for the Sooner offense to maybe expose some of the weaknesses in LSU’s defense that, say, Georgia couldn’t. This should be a good, interesting game to watch, but I’m not sure the outcome is in much doubt.
SP+ line: LSU -6
Vegas line: LSU -13.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Unsurprisingly, their only previous meetings have been in the Sugar Bowl. In the 1949-1950 contest, the Sooners won 35-0, but LSU turned in the tables in the 2003-2004 game to win 21-14.
Last bowl game: For LSU, this marks 20 straight bowl appearances, dating all the way back to a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in the 2000 Peach Bowl. Last season they beat UCF 40-32 in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners are doing the Tigers one better, as this is their 21st straight bowl appearance, going all the way back to a 27-25 loss to Ole Miss in the 1999 Independence Bowl. Last season they lost 45-34 to Alabama in the Orange Bowl.
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge

8:00: Ohio State vs. Clemson (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): And this is what you’re staying up for. Unstoppable force meets immovable object. Two undefeated major conference teams. The defending national champions. Two of the best quarterbacks in the nation (that aren’t playing in the other game). Of course, Justin Fields’s knee is a concern coming into this, but he didn’t seem very limited in the Michigan game, and he’s had a month to heal since then. The difference in this game figures to come down to the defensive lines. Clemson had to replace everyone off their defensive line from last year, and while those replacements are very good, they have also not been tested like this, even if Fields is limited. (This is by far Clemson’s biggest test of the season; their best win is probably over the Greatest 7-5 Team in the World, Texas A&M.) I hate to use phrases like “The ‘X’ Factor'”, but The ‘X’ Factor in this game figures to be Chase Young. He will get loose in the Clemson backfield at least a couple of times. Will those couple of times be enough to generate at least one turnover from Trevor Lawrence, a turnover that could well decide this game? I think so. I have the Buckeyes as slight favorites here, much to my chagrin.
SP+ line: OSU -6.1
Vegas line: Clemson -1.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Clemson is 3-0 all-time against the Buckeyes, and all their previous meetings have been in bowl games, and mostly relatively recently. In the 1978 Gator Bowl Clemson win 17-15, in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl the Tigers won 40-35, and somewhat famously, the Tigers won 31-0 in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl/playoff semi-final.
Last bowl game: This is OSU’s seventh straight bowl appearance, dating back to a 40-35 loss to Clemsin on the Orange Bowl. Last season they beat Washington 28-23 in the Rose Bowl. This is Clemson’s 15th straight bowl appearance, dating to the 2005 Champs Sports Bowl, a 19-10 win over Colorado. As previously mentioned, they shellacked Notre Dame 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl, allowing them to advance to the CFP Championship Game, where they beat Alabama so badly (44-16) that the Tide elected to use their kicker as a lead blocker.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

Bowl Games 2019: Opening Slate, or, Oh, Right, Bowl Season Starts on Friday This Year

So we had a late Thanksgiving this year, which means that the whole college football calendar is out-of-whack. As a result, we’ve got FRIDAY BOWLS. I’ll be on airplane during the first one most likely, but such is life. Also, my full predictions are here.

I’m back once again with all the other information you need for bowl games, including the idea I totally didn’t rip off from anyone else: the Watchability Rating. It’s easy:

  • I: Before Christmas, have it on while you’re wrapping presents. After Christmas, maybe have it on in the background while you do something else, possibly like interacting with your family, but I’m not here to judge if that’s a problem for you.
  • II: This could be interesting, but it could also be a blowout at halftime. Worth having on just in case.
  • III: The College Football Geek Special, i.e., if you the equivalent of me hanging around, I’ll probably make you watch this.
  • IV: Obvious must-see games between marquee teams or playoff games.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, December 20
2:00: Buffalo vs. Charlotte (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): Look, y’all, 2019 has been tough. And not half as tough for me as it’s been for others I know; all I’ve got to complain about are the usual things like work and whatnot, which means I’m barely getting these predictions out in time. Anyway, the 49ers (the North Carolina edition, as the nickname doesn’t have anything to do with gold or when the school was founded; instead, it dates to when the school was saved from being, um, unfounded) are making their first ever bowl game, which is real good for them, you know? And it’s in the Bahamas which… oh, right 2019 wasn’t real great there. Um, Buffalo will probably win.
SP+ line: Buffalo -2
Vegas line: Buffalo -6.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Bulls lost to Troy 42-32 in last year’s Dollar General Bowl. This is Charlotte’s first ever bowl game.
Announcers: Steve Levy and Greg McElroy

7:30: Kent State vs. Utah State (Frisco Bowl @ Frisco, TX; ESPN2): I like Utah State here, sorry to any Golden Flashes fans out there.
SP+ line: Utah State -8.2
Vegas line: Utah State -5.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Two. In 1973, Kent State won 27-16, and a year later the Aggies won 27-24.
Last bowl game: This is Kent State’s first bowl game since the 2012 season, where they lost 17-13 to Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. The Aggies have been to three straight bowl games, dating to 2017’s Arizona Bowl, a 26-20 loss to New Mexico State. Last season they beat North Texas 52-13 in the New Mexico Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and John Congemi

Saturday, December 21
2:00: San Diego State vs. Central Michigan (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Eventually, we’ll get to the games where I know anything about the teams involved. This isn’t one of them. I have the Aztecs here.
SP+ line: SDSU -4
Vegas line: SDSU -3.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This season makes it 10 straight for the Aztecs, dating to the a 35-14 victory over Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl. Last season they got blanked 27-0 by Ohio in the Frisco Bowl. CMU lost the 2017 Potato Bowl 37-14 to Wyoming.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Ryan Leaf

2:30: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): A serious note before I do the silly thing I usually do for this game: this game benefits the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, a less famous but much more efficient cancer charity than certain other ones. Onward.

I’ve waited hours for this
I’ve made myself so sick
I wish I’d stayed asleep today
I never thought that this day would end
I never thought that tonight could ever be
This close to me

Just try to see in the dark
Just try to make it work
To feel the fear before you’re here
I make the shapes come much too close
I pull my eyes out
Hold my breath
And wait until I shake

But if I had your faith
Then I could make it safe and clean
If only I was sure
That my head on the door was a dream

I’ve waited hours for this
I’ve made myself so sick
I wish I’d stayed asleep today
I never thought that this day would end
I never thought that tonight could ever be
This close to me

But if I had your face
I could make it safe and clean
If only I was sure
That my head on the door
Was a dream

I like Georgia Southern here because I find the idea of having to root for Liberty completely unpalatable.
SP+ line: Liberty -0.2
Vegas line: GSU -4.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Liberty’s first ever bowl game. Georgia Southern won last year’s Camellia bowl 23-21 over Eastern Michigan.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor

3:30: Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Methodist (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ABC): Well, the Fightin’ Lane Kiffins are no more, thanks to their namesake’s departure to Oxford, MS. If SMU shows up to this game motivated at all I think they will roll.
SP+ line: EVEN
Vegas line: SMU -2.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: FAU won the 2017 Boca Raton Bowl 50-3 over Akron. SMU lost 51-10 to Louisiana Tech in the 2017 Frisco Bowl.
Announcers: Tom Hart and Joey Galloway

5:30: Florida International vs. Arkansas State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): I have FIU here, because, well, I probably misread the lines below when I was making the picks on my webpage. But that’s what I got.
SP+ line: ASU -4.2
Vegas line: ASU -2.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: These former conference mates have had 8 meetings all time, and Arkansas State leads the series 8-2. They won 66-24 back in 2005 and 34-20 in their last meeting in 2012.
Last bowl game: FIU has now made bowls in three consecutive seasons. They lost 28-3 to Temple in the 2017 Gasparilla Bowl, but won last year’s Bahamas Bowl 35-32 over Toledo. Arkansas State has eight consecutive postseason appearances, dating to a 38-20 loss to Northern Illinois in the 2011-12 GoDaddy.com Bowl. Last season they lost 16-13 to Nevada in the Arizona Bowl.
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb

7:30: Washington vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): This is a true outlier in these early games, a compelling game with good teams and a good storyline. Chris Peterson is a true anomaly among college coaches, and it’s kind of appropriate that the only two jobs he’s been tied in the past almost two decades are the teams involved in his final game. I have Washington here, but I think this game could go either way.
SP+ line: UW -8.3
Vegas line: UW -3.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just four for these two Pacific Northwest foes. They first met in a 24-10 UDub win in 2007. In 2012, the Broncos beat the Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. Less than a year later, they kicked off the 2013 regular season and the Huakies got a 38-6 win. In 2015, Boise won 16-13, resulting in an evenly split series.
Last bowl game: UDub has been to ten straight bowl games, dating to the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 win over Nebraska. Last season they lost 28-23 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. I’m not sure how to count Boise’s streak. Last season they were due to play in the First Responder Bowl, but the game was canceled due to weather. I’d say that still counts, though, so they’ve got 18 straight postseason appearances now, dating to a 34-16 win over Iowa State in the 2002 Humanitarian Bowl. As previously noted, they were supposed to play Boston College in the First Responder Bowl last season.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Kirk Herbstreit

9:00: Alabama-Birmingham vs. Appalachian State (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Oddly, the New Orleans Bowl features no Louisiana teams this year, and also, “Go Blazers!” and all but App State is going to roll y’all.
SP+ line: AppSt -14.1
Vegas line: AppSt -16.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: UAB has appeared in three straight bowl games after coming back to life. In 2017, they lost 41-6 to Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl. Last season, they beat Northern Illinous 37-13 in the Boca Raton Bowl. App State has appeared in five straight bowl games, dating to the 2015 Camellia Bowl, where they beat Ohio 31-29. Last season they beat MTSU 45-13 in this very bowl game.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Anthony Becht

Monday, December 23
2:30: Marshall vs. Central Florida (Gasparilla Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): UCF, not even close.
SP+ line: UCF -21
Vegas line: UCF -17.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: UCF leads the all-time series 8-3. Marshall won the first three metings from 2002-2004, but UCF reeled off 8 in a row before departing for the AAC.
Last bowl game: The Thundering Herd have stampeded their way into three straight bowl games, beating Colorado State 31-28 in the 2017 New Mexico Bowl and South Florida in the 38-20 in the 2018 Gasparilla Bowl. UCF has now appeared in four straight bowl games, dating to the 2016 Cure Bowl, a 31-13 loss to Arkansas State. Last season they lost 40-32 to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Kelly Stouffer

Tuesday, December 24
8:00: Hawaii vs. Brigham Young (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): It’s Christmas Eve. Get the fire going, spike some eggnog, get some cards going, and have this on in the background, live from Hawaii. Sounds pretty good to me. Also, I have BYU here.
SP+ line: BYU -4.5
Vegas line: EVEN
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: There have been 31 meetings all-time between the Stormin’ Mormons and the Rainbow Warriors, and the former hold a 23-8 lead. They first met in 1930, a 49-13 Hawaii win. They met a few more times in the 50’s and 60’s, but in 1978 they played every year until 1998 as members of the WAC. Notably, the Warriors gave the Cougars a game in their 1984 title season, as BYU escaped with a narrow 18-13 win. Since 2002, these two have met four times in the regular season, all BYU wins. Last season BYU won 49-23.
Last bowl game: Hawaii lost 31-14 to Louisiana Tech in last season’s Hawaii Bowl. BYU beat Western Michigan 49-18 in the 2018 Potato Bowl.
Announcers: Joson Benetti and Rod Gimore

This Weekend in College Football: Week 16

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Illinois State @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Quarterfinal; ESPN)

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): Well, while I recommend watching the FCS playoffs if you get the chance, this is pretty much it for the season. Unfortunately for my preferred Army side, it looks like the Cadets have dropped off a bit while the Midshipmen were damn competitive in the strongest Group of Five conference this season. It’s hard to see this one as anything other than a Navy win, but it should hopefully still be worth watching.

Bowl Predictions 2019: Final

Well, I stayed up late scouring the web for any news or hints as to how things will shake out this morning. My best guesses are here.

I’ll the hit high points:

  • I think Wisconsin will fall behind Penn State and Auburn in the rankings and miss a New Year’s Six game completely.
  • Consequently, I think the Citrus will pass up the Badgers to take Michigan to match them against Alabama.
  • With 4 SEC teams in the New Year’s Six/Playoffs, that makes the lower-tier SEC bowls pretty nervous. I found at least one reasonably convincing article that indicated Navy would head to the Liberty Bowl, for example.
  • I took that example even further, generally promoting AAC teams into missing spots and then using C-USA teams to fill in the AAC spots.

After I wake up in the morning, I’ll be trying to go through each announcement and re-arranging the dominoes for any picks I miss. As I’ve said before, the main thorn in my side while trying to predict these games is the bowls ESPN owns. ESPN can, has, and will move teams around to create more favorable matchups for TV despite whatever affiliations the bowl may actually have. The potential for weirdness is ripe.

Of course, my projections are also hosed if Wisconsin winds up in the Rose or Cotton Bowls. So we’ll see!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

8:00: Oregon vs. Utah (Pac-12 Conference Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; ABC): Well, it’s not quite the matchup of 1-loss teams the Pac-12 was so desperately hoping for. Instead, the Pac-12 needs the Utes to pull through to have any shot of getting anyone into the playoff, and even then it’s not obvious they’d get in over, say, Oklahoma. Utah appears to be a better team, but I also think Oregon will stress their (very good) defense the most since they played (and lost to) USC. So it’s not a walk for the Utes at all, who could definitely use an impressive victory.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Baylor vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Conference Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): Oklahoma’s defense will probably keep this interesting, but I like the Sooners here in the neutral-site rematch.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference Championship; ESPN): The Cajuns are sure to be Ragin’, but I think App State is just as good and they’re at home.
  • Miami vs. Central Michigan (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): CMU should win this one easily, but given the history of MAC championship games that means this could go either way.

1:30: Alabama-Birmingham @ Florida Atlantic (Conference USA Championship; CBSS): Go Blazers!

3:30: Cincinnati @ Memphis (American Athletic Conference Championship; ABC): It’s one thing when you’ve got a Baylor-Oklahoma situation, where the first game was over a month ago. Things have changed since then. Meanwhile, these two met last week, and Memphis won easily at home. I think they’ll be able to pull that off again.

4:00:

  • Georgia vs. Louisiana State (Southeastern Conference Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): At no point in UGA’s 52-7 drubbing of us last week did I think to myself “you know, Jake Fromm looks like a competent, poised passer”. Georgia’s best bet is that their defense shuts LSU down and that they can keep it close and win like 17-3. Otherwise I think LSU enters the half with a slim lead and then expands it in the second half.
  • Hawaii @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship; ESPN): This game is either going to be close, fun, and pointsy (with a Boise win), or Boise will win easily since it figures to be cold and wet for this one.

7:30: Clemson vs. Virginia (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Clemson’s going to be able to name their own score in this one.

8:00: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Conference Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Wisky figure to offer Ohio State slightly more resistance than Virginia will to Clemson, but not much. Yeah, on this day the interesting games are early, y’all.