This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Illinois @ Michigan (ESPN): I was all set to instinctively pick Michigan but then I remembered that Michigan just lost to a not-very-good Penn State and that Illinois is 3-2 in the Big Ten to Michigan’s 1-3. So, uh, yeah.
  • Maryland @ Miami (ESPNU): Meanwhile, yes, I know Maryland is 3-1 and 6-2 overall and that Miami is missing Jacory Harris. Nonetheless, Maryland has had trouble scoring against teams that aren’t “Morgan State” or “Wake Forset” so I still like the Canes here. I’m not terribly confident about it though.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSCS): Army’s better this year, but Air Force remains the obvious choice. A win here clinches their first Commander-in-Chief’s trophy since 2002, which is also the last time someone other than Navy won it.
  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): Wisconsin.
  • Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Florida.
  • North Carolina State @ Clemson (ACC): So after a potentially season-defining win over their biggest ACC rival (us), Clemson went out and lost to the worst offense in the conference 16-10. Screw them. I hope NCSU beats them by like 5 touchdowns. They’re also missing Andre Ellington, so they may do well to score more than 10 points, which is somehow all they scored against Boston College.

12:30: Baylor @ Oklahoma State (FSN): The winner of this game will help simplify the Big 12 South race, as each of them then end their seasons against the South’s other 1-loss team, Oklahoma. Of course, OSU is one of, if not the best, teams that Baylor has played since TCU. With the slight homefield edge, I have to give the edge to OSU.

3:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Utah (CBSCS): I am listing this game first. First off, until the Iron Bowl, it is likely to be the only matchup of two top-5 teams this season. Secondly, it deserves your attention for the all reasons spelled out by someone more coherent than I am right now. If you have Time Warner, Charter, or Dish you’ll even be getting CBS College Sports for free. I know I’ll be watching. That said, I also really like TCU’s chances to prevail. They’ve faced tougher opposition than Utah, and in addition to the pummelling they hand out on offense they also play defense of a caliber Utah hasn’t seen all season.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): This is the game most of you will be watching. However, without the Baton Rouge night game mojo, I’m not sure Les Miles and his hat can prevail over Nick Saban and co. Bama should win.
  • Washington @ Oregon (ABC/ESPN2): The ABC and ESPN2 coverage maps are somewhat complicated this week, so I’ve linked them. At any rate, much like water on an actual duck, Oregon should roll.
  • Northwestern @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): Picking Penn State after they beat two of the worse outfits in the Big Ten by 10 points? Sure, why not.
  • Nebraska @ Iowa State (ABC): Nebraska, unless they manage to commit nine turnovers again. (I still can’t figure out how that happened last year.)
  • North Carolina @ Florida State (ABC): I suspect the ACC Chaos Machine will actually ensure that UNC wins this somehow, but in reality FSU should have this one. I think I said that last week, too. (Last weekend was a prime example of why every column starts with “all predictions wrong”. It’s not just a slogan, sometimes, it’s a way of life.)
  • Hawaii @ Boise State (ESPNU): Boise might only beat Hawaii by 20 instead of the customary 30 or 40. Either way, the only way they’re getting back to 3rd in the BCS is if Utah wins, and even then, maybe.

7:00:

  • Arkansas @ South Carolina (ESPN): The Visor remains the last, best hope for a team with less than 3-losses to win the SEC East. I think they can manage it and face Florida next weekend for the SEC East title.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): How is TAMU 5-3 and you ask? Well, let’s review those five wins: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Assuming Texas “gets its **** mind rite”, as they might say in Coral Gables, TAMU could well finish 5-7. They’ll at least go to 5-4 here.
  • Oregon State @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): UCLA managed to lose to Arizona by a respectable one-score margin. It may be respectable, but they should probably lose to the Beavers too.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Well, um, huh. This game is on TV. Well then. Ole Miss.

8:00:

  • Arizona @ Stanford (ABC): Stanford is the best top-15 team you’re not hearing anything about. Then again, that’s probably because other than their single loss to Oregon, they haven’t really played anyone and their best victory to date is probably a 2-point squeaker over USC at home. Arizona meanwhile at least managed to beat Iowa though they also lost to Oregon State. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to like the numbers Stanford’s offense puts up that would look even more ridiculous if they didn’t share a conference with Oregon. I’ll take the Cardinal.
  • Missouri @ Texas Tech (ABC): Texas Tech has the ultimate 6-6 schedule. They will contribute further to that by losing to Mizzou, who made me look terrible last weekend but oh well. See my earlier disclaimer in the UNC-FSU game.
  • Texas @ Kansas State (ESPN2): By all rights, Texas should win this game. Kansas State isn’t particularly good or anything and their high flying offense lost with a relatively low-key 14 points to Oklahoma State. And hell, perhaps being in Manhattan will help with them with the Iowa State (?!) and Baylor (!!!) loses being in Austin. I don’t know anymore. I’m picking Texas out habit, shock, and disbelief, not out of logic and reason.
  • Tennessee @ Memphis (CBSCS): Tennessee helps boost Memphis’s home attendance numbers and gets a win in the process. Everybody wins! Well, except for the Memphis football team, but only in terms of literal wins and losses.

10:30: Arizona State @ Southern Cal (FSN): For those of you on the East Coast, this game may have two 1 AMs for you! For everyone else, it should be a classic high flyin’ Pac-10 late night shootout and a good way to wrap up the day. Well, unless you’re unlike me and have better things to do on Saturday nights. Either way, ASU should probably win.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 3

Better late than never, here’s this week’s bowl predictions. They’ve actually been up for awhile, so let’s see if I can remember what I was planning on writing.

  • Auburn and Oregon continue to control their own destiny. The only thing #1 really gets is the first dibs on uniforms, which is probably a bigger deal to Oregon than it is to Auburn. Either way, as long as neither loses, they’re in good shape.
  • Now, if they do lose, well, a lot more variables come into play. If Oregon loses, then no one really is sure what will happen. If Auburn loses, it depends on who they lose to. If they lose to Alabama the general consensus is that such a win plus the SEC title would propel a 1-loss Crimson Tide to the title game.
  • In terms of TCU/Utah and Boise, there’s actually a chance one of them could be left out even if both finish in the top 5. Only the higher ranked of the two will get the auto-bid (likely to the Rose Bowl unless Oregon loses). The other will be at the mercy of the BCS at-large process. I don’t think the BCS bowls really want to risk the outrage if, say, a #4 Boise State is left out in the cold, but it could happen. (It has before.)
  • In other news, I still have no idea who is going to win the Big 12. This week’s guess is Oklahoma over Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, allowing Mizzou to get a BCS berth. Note that this berth could also go to a Big Ten at-large, like, say, Michigan State.
  • You may be interested to know that I have Michigan and Texas playing each other in the Texas Bowl.
  • I have one extra team this week, but it’s still kind of dicey. It mostly depends on how the mid-majors shake out, and at this point in the season I still don’t really have enough data to comb through and figure out which of those teams will reach the 6-win threshold. (See, for instance, the Sun Belt, where many teams enter conference play below .500 but then gradually claw their way up to 6-6.) As the season goes on, this gets much easier though.
  • Florida and GT in the Music City Bowl? I don’t care that they lost to Mississippi State and can’t offense their way out of a paper bag, I’d still say we’re like a three touchdown underdog.
  • Also, Hawaii is indeed the first confirmed team in a bowl game.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Miami @ Virginia (ESPN): With Florida State losing at NC State this past Thursday there is, once again, the lack of a clear favorite to win the ACC. While most people don’t care about this sort of thing, as a fan of an ACC school I sort of have to. Sitting at 3-1 and in second in the Coastal, now is as good of a time as any for Miami to step up and show that they can take the reigns of the division. For the purposes of tomorrow, though, they should roll.
  • Purdue @ Illinois (ESPN2): Both of these teams have two Big Ten wins in 3 or 4 games. Now, before you get too excited, the collective group these wins are over is Northwestern, Minnesota, Indiana, and Penn State. In terms of this game, though, I guess I’ll go with Illinois? I think it’s a tossup, though Illinois has beaten slightly stronger competition. And with the Zooker it’s hard to know which version of Illinois will show up at any given time anyway.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (FSN): Provided Oklahoma State isn’t too upset about having their undefeated record spoiled by Nebraska last week they should be able to beat K-State.
  • Syracuse @ Cincinnati (ESPNU): This isn’t last year’s version of either of these teams. I’ll take the Orange.
  • Northwestern @ Indiana (BTN): I’ve got a hunch there’ll be a lot of points scored in this game. If I remembered that I get the Big Ten network I would probably even watch a little of it. Alas. Oh, and I’ll take Northwestern here.
  • Tennessee @ South Carolina (SEC): South Carolina definitely took it easy in Nashville last weekend. Back in Columbia and with their human freight train Marcus Lattimore back, well, this should be an easy one for the Visor and Co.
  • Clemson @ Boston College (ACC): I swear if Clemson loses this game…. ugh. They should win easily against a team that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any game this year.

2:30: Tulsa @ Notre Dame (NBC): All I have to say about this is that ND will probably win.

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): The Cocktail Party returns, and both fanbases seem to be too busy talking about how the other is going to get blown out to really put any sort of analysis of this thing. Yes, UGA is on a three game winning streak. Those three games are wins over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky – the latter of which Florida beat earlier in the year 48-14. (Yeah yeah, transitive property doesn’t apply, I know.) Despite all their issues or whatever, I’m still picking the Gators.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN): The next two games feature undefeated teams that are underdogs. The conventional wisdom for this Michigan State team is that they haven’t beaten anyone on the road yet, but Iowa hasn’t really beaten anyone anywhere as they’ve lost to the best two teams they’ve played (Arizona and Wisconsin, the latter of which was at home). I like the Spartans here.
  • Missouri @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN): So Nebraska goes out and beats a defense-optional Oklahoma State team and all of a sudden they’re Big 12 North favorites again? Did I miss something? Did I miss the fact that the last time the Huskers faced a competent defense it was in the form of an extremely moribund Texas squad that had every reason to lose in Lincoln and then didn’t? Oh, and also that Missouri has a defense that’s been as good as Texas’s this year, if not better? Jeez, what do you have to do to get some respect? I like the Tigers.
  • Arizona @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): UCLA has lost their last two games (vs. Cal and @Oregon) by a combined total of 95-20. Arizona is not quite that explosive but it would be very difficult to take UCLA here.
  • Wake Forest @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland should get bowl eligible for the first time since 2008 here.
  • Duke @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy.

6:00: Auburn @ Mississippi (ESPN2): While not projecting an aura of crazy that’s as strong as Les Miles, weird things do tend to happen around Houston Nutt. Such are the challenges Auburn will face in its quest to hang on for the perfect season that, unlike 2004, will payoff this time. Provided Auburn clears this hurdle, and they should, their remaining schedule is UTC, UGA, and @Bama. While UGA is a rivalry game, they shouldn’t be troubled again until they make the drive over to Tuscaloosa.

7:00:

  • Baylor @ Texas (FSN): Running out of time here, but Texas has lost its last two home games. To UCLA and Iowa State. That is not exactly a murder’s row of teams there. I think Baylor can pull this off.
  • Stanford @ Washington (Versus): Stanford.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): This is an intriguing match, and we could see a lot of points here. I like the cowbells.

7:30: Utah @ Air Force (CBSCS): Air Force is probably the most interesting team Utah has played this season (other than now-Big East favorites Pittsburgh to start the year). I like the Utes to pull away in the second half here.

8:00:

  • Ohio State @ Minnesota (ABC): Yes, that’s right America, no reverse mirror for this game. So if you’re in the Midwest you’re still with the impending beatdown Ohio State is about to lay on Minnesota. The Oregon-USC game will be on espn3.com at least.
  • Oregon @ Southern California (ABC): The rest of the country will see this game. I mean, this should be a beatdown as well, but at least it’s got the potential to be interesting.
  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): Instead, many eyes may be here (well, or on Utah-Air Force, or Baylor-Texas… you get the idea) to see which of these Big Ten teams get out of their recent conference funk (though Penn St. did notch a win against the hapless Beavers last week). While the Wolverines haven’t shown any ability to play defense this year, that shouldn’t be a problem against a Penn State team trying to find an answer at quarterback. The only major problem may be the location factor – Happy Valley at night on Halloween may be a little less happy – but I still like Michigan here.

9:15: Colorado @ Oklahoma (ESPN2): Cody “Son of Coach” Hawkins will start for the Buffs in Norman. He’s going to need all the help he can get, but the main objective for Colorado here is probably avoiding the blowout so Dan Hawkins can at least have the dignified “end of season” firing instead of the midseason variety. Sooners should roll.

10:30: Utah State @ Nevada (ESPNU): Since beating in-state rival BYU, the Aggies (that’s Utah State) have scored 13 points combined against Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. While allowing 69. Nevada’s crept back up into the rankings since their 6-point loss to the Hawaiians two weeks ago, and they will probably stay there for at least another week.

11:00: Texas Christian @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSCS): I just went to look at UNLV’s schedule on espn.com and a highlight video started autoplaying featuring the headline “TCU Blanks UNLV 41-0”. From last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see history repeat itself here. Horned Frogs roll.

With each passing week, it gets just a little easier to do the bowl predictions. Expect a fairly quick turnaound after this weekend. Will we see a new #1? Probably not. But if Vegas is right, we’ll have some shakeups around the 5th and 6th ranked teams. So settle in and enjoy, this weekend (especially the 3:30 games) promises to be a fun ride once again here in the return of Bizarro Year.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 2

Well, it’s week two of bowl prediction season and I still have no solid idea of what’s going on here. I’ll try to do some analysis, though. Let’s try some bullet points, but first here’s a link to the predictions:

  • Auburn and Oregon are the only two teams that control their BCS destiny at this point. If they both win out, they’re in. I feel pretty good about this one. If either of them loses, it’ll be chaos.
  • And even then, it’s not entirely clear what will happen behind Auburn and Oregon. I have no earthly idea who is going to win the Big 12. Right now I would say it will be Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Missouri. Mizzou plays Nebraska this weekend so that will at least let me figure out the likely divisional winners. Even then, I’m not sure Mizzou could beat OU twice. Right now, however, I am projecting the Tigers as the Big 12 champs.
  • As a reminder, the BCS bowls pick in this order: the bowls that lost teams to the championship game get to pick replacements first, followed by the rest of the bowls in reverse order (so this year, the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and then Rose). Also, a mid-major team will almost certainly end up in the Rose. I think the TCU/Utah winner will jump Boise State in the BCS eventually, so that’s why I put them there.
  • The rest I feel okay about. This week I actually have extra teams, as each week of conference play also makes it easier to evaluate the non-BCS conferences. Still, though, I’m nervous about having Southern Miss and Troy in the New Orleans Bowl again, but at this point it’s too early to get concrete news on which way the bowls are leaning. Though I did read somewhere Notre Dame might not even get invited to the Champs Sports Bowl (in place of the Big East runner-up), but we’ll see.
  • Oh, speaking of the Big East, I’m projecting a three-way tie thanks to Syracuse upsetting West Virginia last weekend. It seemed like the most rational prediction at this point.
  • As much as I hate to admit this, I’d actually like to see Georgia and Clemson play each other. That’s a pretty longstanding rivalry that should be played every year but isn’t.

Anyway, this weekend holds even more intriguing matchups that will probably change everything again. So, until next time…

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

No time this week, so let’s get this going. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@East Rutherford, NJ; CBS): For only the 2nd time since 1964, Navy has a chance to win consecutive games against Notre Dame. Will they do it? Probably not.
  • Michigan State @ Northwestern (ESPN): This is a game that would be easy for the Spartans to overlook, but should otherwise be one where they should take care of business.
  • Syracuse @ West Virginia (ESPN2): West Virginia is probably the best team in the Big East this year. Which, unfortunately for them, isn’t really saying much. But they should be able to beat Syracuse, even this rejuvenated edition. Key word there: “should”.
  • Iowa State @ Texas (FSN): Iowa State has lost its last games (Utah and Oklahoma) by a combined 93 points. I don’t think it’s going to get any better against the Longhorns.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Minnesota (ESPNU): Minnesota finally fired Tim Brewster, who definitely came into this season as, well, the most likely coach to get fired before the season ended. Note this was after the bizarre extension he got last winter. At any rate, even this astonishingly mediocre edition of Penn State should be able to beat them.
  • Purdue @ Ohio State (BTN): Purdue is surprisingly 4-2 and 2-0 in the Big Ten. Well, surprising until you see that their 2-0 conference record is against the two worst teams in the conference. I think it’ll go to 2-1 in this game, unless Ohio State pulls a, well, “last year against Purdue” type game out of their hat after getting mauled by Wisconsin last weekend.
  • Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): I’m going to guess that Houston Nutt probably checked into his hotel in Fayetteville under an assumed name. That aside, Arkansas should continue in its quest to stay relevant in the SEC West race with a win here.
  • Duke @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Well, it looks like the Hokies are peaking just in time… to pound Duke in a pulp.

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Auburn (CBS): The first of a trio of huge 3:30 games, none of which I’ll probably watch due to our game being at the same time. But no matter! Folks other than me are starting to notice this similarities of this year to 2007, and, well, you know who got into the title game and won it that year? LSU-led Les Miles. The crazy continues in Auburn this weekend, where by rights Auburn should win. But that this point, I can’t pick against LSU until this lose. Yes, I know Auburn scored 65 points last week. LSU actually kind of does play defense, so they probably won’t do that again. But if they don’t bury the Lovecraftian horror that is LSU’s offense early, it will come back to haunt them.
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN): Game number 2! Sure, both these Big Ten hopefuls have a loss but they’re still two of the best four teams in the conference. If Iowa wins, they control their own destiny in the conference as they play both Michigan State and Ohio State. Wisconsin also puts itself at the likely top of the 1-loss heap, but they don’t play Michigan State so that would start to get interesting at the end of the year. At any rate, the Wisconsin offense is pretty good (they’re probably the textbook definition of a team that “runs downhill”) but Iowa probably has a better and more experienced defensive line than Ohio State. I’ll take the Hawkeyes at hom.
  • Nebraska @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Here’s the third game. Nebraska suffered a huge let down against Texas last weekend, to the say the last. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State hopes to keep pace with the conference frontrunners by staying undefeated. Can Nebraska make another team suffer the same grief they just went through? Earlier this week I was high on the Cowboys but now I’m not so sure, as they’ve definitely given up a lot of points this year. This may be the kind of team Nebraska can regroup and get the offense back on track for. I’ll change my mind here at the last minute and take the Huskers.
  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ABC/ESPN): I quote this stat every year for this game, but here goes again. Starting in 2004, Tech is 6-1 against Clemson. That “1” was a 31-7 blowout that I still remember – I was at a Buffalo Wild Wings in Chattanooga and Clemson was wearing those awful all-purple unis. The other 6 have all been Tech wins, yes, but but an average of 4.5 points. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1989 to find the last time Tech beat Clemson by more than a single score. It’s rumored Clemson will be clad in purple once again, so let’s hope we don’t get a 2006-ish effort.
    We played Clemson twice last year, so it’s tempting to compare this year to those efforts, especially the most epic conference championship no one watched. If I had to compare this year’s team to last year, it’s that a) we’re not scoring as much and b) we turn the ball over more. I think our turnovers are a direct result of poorer blocking along the line this year. While the offensive line doesn’t usually turn the ball over, if they’re not getting their blocks then you have a flood of defenders in your backfield too quickly to let anything develop. This leads to things like bad snaps (anxiety of the C to get his block) and missed pitches (timing is thrown off because the pitch man has to go around a defender). These are both mistakes we will have to continue to limit in order to be successful in this crucial stretch that starts up in up-state South Carolina.
  • Arizona State @ California (FSN): Cal? Yeah. I have no clue what to think of them. Trying to figure this out would surely drive me mad, so I’ll take the easy way out and the Sun Devils.
  • Connecticut @ Louisville (ESPNU): These are probably the two worst teams in the Big East. Louisville has somewhat better losses so I’ll pick them.
  • Houston @ Southern Methodist (CBSCS): Houston just lost to Rice. Yeah. I’ll take the Mustangs.

7:00:

  • Alabama @ Tennessee (ESPN): Well, this October has 5 Saturdays so the 3rd Saturday in October… isn’t. Nonetheless, the Tide should, er, roll easily through Knoxville.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Kansas (FSN): Don’t even get me started on Kansas. Ugh. TAMU rolls.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): In days of yore, I probably would’ve been tempted to take UAB here but, well, Miss State is actually kind of good now. So not so much.

7:30: North Carolina @ Miami (ESPN2): Among other things, two teams have bedeviled Miami since their entry into the ACC: Georgia Tech and UNC. UNC has actually one three straight over the Canes, but even with their depleted defense back I think good Jacory makes a cameo and Miami wins.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma @ Missouri (ABC): While there’s a trio of good 3:30 games, with apologies to AF-TCU, this is the game of prime time right here. We’ll find out in a matter of hours which of these teams is “for real” and which isn’t. Despite the less impressive resume, I picked Missouri in my bowl predictions and, well , it’s too late to turn back now. (Well, as demonstrated above, it actually isn’t, but I needed a reason to pick the Tigers so there you go.)
  • Air Force @ Texas Christian (CBSCS): I think this has a chance to be an interesting game, by which I mean there’s a chance TCU will win by less than 4 touchdowns. I’ll take the Horned Frogs here.

10:15: Washington @ Arizona (ESPN): Here’s your Pac-10 Nightcap. While last week’s Washington-Oregon State tilt wasn’t all that thrilling regulation, overtime was great until the Beavers decided to go for two in the second overtime for reasons I haven’t quite figured out. (The way I figure, if you’re going to go for two early, do it in the first overtime. In the second why not just get back out there on defense for the 3rd OT where everyone has to go for two anyway?) Anyway, I’ll thumb my nose at the transitive property once again (Oregon State is responsible for Arizona’s single loss) and take Arizona.

Look for bowl predictions once again late Sunday. Hopefully things will make even just slightly more sense this weekend. (Though if this season has proven anything, it’ll probably be the opposite.)