Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 6

It’s that time once again. Or, by most measures, it’s about time it’s that time once again. Anyway, the predictions are here. Let’s get started.

  • First, since I waited so long to do this, my prediction that Texas would lose to TAMU has come to pass, meaning that they will not be in a bowl game for the first time since 1997. Which got me to thinking: I’ve been doing this thing since 1999, so what teams have been in every edition of the predictions? Well, the list isn’t very long: Florida State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Oklahoma.
  • The BCS is a mess right now. For starters, I think I’m the only person on the Internet who thinks Auburn is going to win, so I have them in the title game. I also still have Boise and TCU in, though I think Boise will pass TCU. I have a pretty good idea what the Rose and Sugar will do (take their obligatory non-AQ hit and take a Big Ten team, respectively) but after that I’m not sure. The Orange, however, surely doesn’t cherish either of it’s options: take a faraway at-large like TCU or Stanford, or take whichever 4-loss team emerges from the Big East. I think they’ll bite the bullet and take Pitt (or UConn, or WVU, or whoever it is) leaving the final potential PR nightmare to the Fiesta. I almost think they have to take TCU at this point. But since I seem to differ from everyone else on the Internet on this I could be wrong.
  • At this point in the year, there’s enough solid rumors that I stop guessing as much and try to find as much information for each bowl as I can. This harder than it may seem, because for at least half the bowls no one really cares. (Search for “New Orleans Bowl” in Google news and see what you get. Not much.) Generally, team beat writers and hometown papers for the bowls are the best sources, as they generally talk to bowl commissioners and have at least an idea of what their bowl prospects are. This enabled me to make at least once correction this week, as I moved Alabama from the Cotton to the Capital One Bowl, which triggered a huge shift in the way I was allocating the SEC bids.
  • There’s some potential shenanigans with the Liberty Bowl, but for now I’m going with C-USA vs. SEC. I favor the Liberty over the Compass for now since the Liberty has a higher payout.
  • No idea where Notre Dame is going to end up. If they upset USC then they could steal a spot from the Big East and into the Champs Sports Bowl, but otherwise they’ll probably be the most attractive prize among the 6-6 at-larges. We’ll know more Sunday.
  • The only teams that have been invited so far are marked with double asterisks, and they are Navy, Hawaii, and Army.
  • For Georgia Tech, everything hinges on beating UGA. If we (somehow) win, then I could see us in the Music City Bowl, and I’ve even heard the words “Champs Sports” being tossed around though I really doubt they will take us above Miami or NC State. (Especially Miami if they get Notre Dame.) Lose and it’s pretty bleak. The Independence is probably a best-case scenario, as the only other remaining teams at that point are likely us, Maryland, and Boston College. I would think the Military Bowl would take Maryland. I don’t really know why the Independence would take BC over us, but you never know.
  • Remember how the Pac-10 only got two teams into the NCAA tournament last March (and only because Cal lost in the Pac-10 title game)? Well, they’re trying that again here. Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona are locks to make bowls, but outside of that really only the winner of the Washington-California game has a chance of making it to 6 wins. USC would be in a game but they are, of course, ineligible. Which is a real bummer, as I’m all for the Pac-10’s round robin conference schedule, but a few more teams would definitely be in if that 9th game were replaced by Portland State.
  • There’s probably just enough action next weekend to hold off the vast majority of invites because of conference title games and the uncertainty of who will get into the BCS. So this will one come down to the wire, to say the least.

Enjoy rivalry weekend, folks!

This Week in College Football: Week 13

Lots of football this week, especially with a jam packed Black Friday slate. So why get up before dawn to sit in the cold only to discover that you weren’t one of the first three people in line for that 55″ TV? Your existing 42″ one is probably good enough to watch the following games anyway.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Temple @ Miami (ESPN): Okay, this game already kicked off, so I’m a bit late to the party here. So I won’t predict anything.

Thursday
8:00: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Texas (ESPN): What a terrible year for Texas, eh? They join the miser zone for two other BCS teams last year (Florida and Georgia Tech) whose 2010 seasons are not quite living up to the hype. With that said, I don’t think they really stand a chance again TAMU.

Friday
11:00:

  • Louisville @ Rutgers (ESPN2): Who wants to win the Big East? Okay, it probably won’t be one of these two teams, but you never know. Especially about the Big East. I think Rutgers can win this one.
  • Ohio @ Kent State (ESPNU): Ohio should wrap up the MAC East in this early Friday MACtion.

12:00: West Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ABC): It’s the Backyard Brawl, with a special helping of “Who Wants to Win the Big East?” Pitt is in pretty good shape, but if they lose, then Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big east. Yup. That said, Pitt should win, for whatever that means in the context of the Big East.

2:00: Southern Methodist @ East Carolina (CBSCS): SMU clinches a C-USA West title here with a win, a win that would also help Southern Miss in the East. ECU just got torched by a very moribund Rice squad as they posses one of the worst defenses in the country, so I actually like SMU here.

2:30: Auburn @ Alabama (CBS): Well, here it is. Alabama is a slight favorite right now, and as I’ve discovered now that I’m starting to check the news for the bowl projections, that a lot of people think Auburn will lose. Okay, yeah, this is not a lights out Auburn defense. But this isn’t last year’s Alabama defense either. They got passed all over by Arkansas, and then they lost to South Carolina and LSU. While I generally don’t adhere to the transitive property when it comes to college football, I can’t help but note that Auburn has beaten both of those teams, and, in fact, has no losses. (I think it is fair, though, to point out this is only Auburn’s fourth home game all year.) That said, I will take Auburn straight up. Well, unless something happens between now and Friday re: Cam Newton, which I doubt.

3:30:

  • Colorado @ Nebraska (ABC): Yeah, cool, Colorado won last weekend against K-State and Nebraska probably got jobbed in College Station. Huskers should still win this one and wrap up the Big 12 North.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (FSN): Since I haven’t posted this week’s bowl predictions this week, did you know that the Pac-10 could only have four bowl eligible teams. Which sucks that’s considered “a thing” because I favor a round-robin conference schedule. ASU is already ineligible because with two DI-AA teams and six losses they can’t qualify. UCLA can if they run the table starting here, but I don’t think they will.

6:30: Southern Mississippi @ Tulsa (CBSCS): That said, USM’s remote C-USA East hopes lie on an extremely unlikely UCF loss to Memphis. That said, USM played well last weekend despite everything, and I think that trend continues.

7:00: Arizona @ Oregon (ESPN): While Cal defended Oregon about as well as you can, they’ve had a week to think about it. While Arizona is a good team, the Ducks should take care of business back home in Eugene.

10:15: Boise State @ Nevada (ESPN): I will like this game a whole bunch if Nevada can figure out a way to not get blown out. While Nevada is solid, I’m not sure how they can defend Boise. The best case scenario for Nevada is to hope the game turns into something a track meet, but Boise has crushed all their other WAC opposition, and I don’t think that there’s anything about Nevada’s defense that won’t prevent that happening to them.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/22

Once again, it’s To Hell With Georgia week here.

However, there’s not a lot to talk about this year. With an opening line of somewhere around two touchdowns, Tech is currently not a favorite, to say the least.

However, none of that changes the real mechanics of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Oh, sure, your state rivalry may have more history. Or your state rivalry may currently be for higher stakes other than bowl eligiblity. None of that changes anything, though.

I will rest today and probably tomorrow, but the usual content should be up by the middle of the week.

And once again, To Hell with Georgia!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Michigan (ESPN): It’s been a comfortable couple of weeks for the Wolverines, with their overtime “thriller” against Illinois and a victory over Purdue getting them back to the 7-win mark, and perhaps a reason to look forward to next year. (It’s winter in the midwest, they need all the reasons they can get when the sky is gray everyday for the next 5 months, don’tcha know?) At any rate, that should all come crashing down against Wisconsin. While I doubt they’ll score 83 again, it will probably be a moral victory for the beleaguered Michigan defense if they hold them under, say, 50.
  • Pittsburgh @ South Florida (ESPN2): Who’ll win the Big East? Who knows. I tried flipping a coin to pick this one but I lost control of it and now I can’t find it. I’m pretty sure that says something about the Big East. Anyway, I predicted Pitt to prevail in my bowl predictions, so I guess I’ll go with them here.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas (FSN): Kansas: still bad! Cowboys roll.
  • Virginia @ Boston College (ESPNU): Boston College still isn’t scoring any points, but hey they’ve one 3 in a row and they actually play defense. I’ll take them here.
  • Purdue @ Michigan State (BTN): Purdue may be one of the most battered teams in the country. Sparty rolls.
  • Troy @ South Carolina (SEC): I guess it’s popular in the SEC to either take this week off or effectively take this week off. While I think Troy can still recover in the Sun Belt, they don’t really stand a chance here.
  • North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): I like this matchup a lot, actually. That said, I also still like the Wolfpack a lot here as well.

1:30: Duke @ Georgia Tech (espn3.com): What is there to say at this point? We’re 5-5 and we’re still making the same mistakes that at the beginning of the year caused us to lose to Kansas, and we’re out our starting QB. I think Tevin Washington actually performed well last weekend, but the continuing lapses on defense and lack of execution on offense are extremely worrying at this point in the season.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Louisiana State (CBS): Well, since LSU is involved, it’s tough to tell how this one is going to go. Sure, Ole Miss just got blown out by the (2nd) worst team from the other side of the SEC, but this one could go down to the wire. Or LSU wins comfortably. Either way, The Hat should prevail in the fashion that he chooses.
  • Ohio State @ Iowa (ABC): As Doc Saturday put it, last weekend was Northwestern’s “annual upset over Iowa” that I keep forgetting about. That pretty much removes Iowa from the Rose Bowl race but doesn’t really make the Big Ten any less confusing. Provided Ohio State wins here, and I think they will, they will end up in the BCS, but it’s just a question of whether it’ll be Pasadena or New Orleans.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): This is your ACC Coastal division, right here. Honestly, I don’t think it matters who starts at QB for Miami at this point, but I think the VPI defense is still quality enough to control them. With this year’s edition of Tyrod Taylor, the Hokies should also still be able to generate enough offense to outpace the Miami attack, which is a pretty conventional offense with some great talent. These are the type of offenses VPI has been feasting on for years.
  • Stanford @ California (FSN): It’s The Big Game, folks. Does Cal stand a chance? While this is a huge rivalry, I think Cal spent their bullets against Oregon last weekend. Also, that Andrew Luck kid is pretty good at this quarterback thing. While I think Stanford will win, this is very reminiscent of last year’s Big Game that the Cardinal were also heavily favored to win but ended up losing. So, hey, ya never know.
  • Illinois vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; ESPNU): Ponder this: Northwestern is a small, private school that is typically not really good at football. Illinois is the big, huge state school that should be great at football. Now, then, you’re probably aware of this, as I was, but I still just looked it up and I am shocked that Northwestern is 6-1 against Illinois since 2003. If Illinois isn’t careful, the Wildcats will pass them soon, as the all time series is a pretty close 52-46-5 in favor of Illinois. And I think that trend will continue this year. Not because Northwestern is great or anything, but I mean seriously, Illinois just lost to Minnesota. Minnesota! In addition watching Ron Zook lose, this game also provides the novelty of football in a baseball stadium. The baseball stadium thing being the novel part, not the Ron Zook losing part. [Ed: We’ve learned at the last minute that both teams will work towards one end zone on offense. This is like when we were kids, except that presumably there are also no gardens or trees in the field of play.]
  • Arkansas State @ Navy (CBSCS): Navy.

7:00:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@New York, NY; NBC): So Notre Dame just demolished Utah, getting out of their funk for now. While I don’t think they’ll quite do the same damage here, they should still win pretty comfortably.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Arkansas might be putting together the quietest 2-loss season in SEC history. While Miss State is pretty decent this year, it’s hard not to like Arkansas this point, provided they don’t overlook the Bulldogs.
  • Missouri @ Iowa State (FSN): Iowa State is gunning for their first consecutive bowl streak since 2004 and 2005. They’ll get close, but just not close enough. Mizzou keeps their slim Big 12 North hopes alive.
  • Connecticut @ Syracuse (ESPNU): Who wants to win the Big East? These two teams certainly still can, but technically anyone still can, so that’s not really saying much. I flipped a coin, and this time I didn’t lose it. It came up UConn.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Oregon State (ABC): That win over Cal looks really confusing now doesn’t it? (Not to mention that 2 point victory over Arizona.) In the last 4 games, the Beavers have lost to Washington, UCLA, and Wazzou, three of the worst teams in the conference. I think USC will continue the trend, though they’re actually good so who knows?
  • Nebraska @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ABC): I didn’t realize until just now that TAMU is ranked. Huh. That said, while TAMU prevailed over then #8 Oklahoma two weeks ago I don’t think they’ll have the same luck against current #8 Nebraska. This is definitely the game of the evening, though, so give it a look if you can.
  • Florida State @ Maryland (ABC): Well, it’s been fun Maryland, but I’ll be really surprised if you can beat Florida State this weekend. Still, a pretty surprising year for the Terps.
  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (ESPN2): The ride was fun for Baylor as well, but then they ran into Oklahoma State and TAMU and, well, it hasn’t been pretty. This will probably continue against the Sooners.
  • Houston @ Southern Mississippi (CBSCS): Considering all that happened in Hattiesburg last weekend after USM’s upset over UCF, I will be both surprised and delighted if Southern Miss can beat the Cougars here.

I’m flying back to the eye of the crazy storm (i.e., Alabama) on Sunday, so bowl predictions maybe late. Of course, since I just uploaded them today during a normal week, I guess that won’t really be all that different.