This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:00: Louisville @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Louisville may be the sketchiest 5-0 team in the country, but nonetheless Pitt turned back into early-season Pitt by losing to Syracuse last week. I expect the Cardinals to get their first Big East win and, thus, stay undefeated.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): It’s the Red River Shootout! It’s kind of nice these two are still playing, since both have lost rivalries in recent years (namely, Nebraska and Texas A&M). As for who will win? Well, I still like the Sooners better overall than the Longhorns, but not by much.
  • Kansas State @ Iowa State (FX): Reminder: Bill Synder is a wizard. Wildcats roll.
  • Iowa @ Michigan State (ESPN): The Big Ten is a trainwreck this year, but fortunately the style of football most of the conference plays makes it rather easy to look away. Anyway, I’ll take the team that didn’t lose to Central Michigan (read: Michigan State).
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (ESPN2): Northwestern still has a legit shot at winning the Legends division. You can’t make stuff like this up. (Of course, no one in the Big Ten has played more than two conference games, but work with me here.) Anyway, Minnesota got trounced (by Big Ten standards) by previously hapless Iowa last weekend, so I’ll take NU.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Houston (FSN): Both these teams are terrible at defense and good at throwing the football. I think you can see where this is going. I’ll guess that Houston has the ball last.
  • Kent State @ Army (CBSS): A week after losing by 20 to Stony Brook Army beat Boston College. Yeah. I would like Kent State’s chances against BC as well, so I’ll take them here.
  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): It took 6 games, but Wisconsin finally looked like Wisconsin last week against Illinois. It would’ve been hard to say Purdue was going to win, but that makes it even tougher.
  • Auburn @ Mississippi (SEC): This game may be either of these team’s only chance to pick up a SEC win this year. No joke. Ole Miss at least seems to have some vague notion of an offense, which is more than the Tigers can say right now.

12:30: Duke @ Virginia Tech (ACC): VPI’s trainwreck of a season continued last week unabated as they lost by 14 to UNC. Will they be able to stop shooting themselves in the foot long enough to gain some traction against Duke’s defense? Because the Blue Devils will score on offense (though, it should be noted, the only above-average defense they’ve played so far this year is Stanford’s, which held them to a season-low 13 points). It’s hard to really pick Duke in this matchup, so I won’t, but let’s just say I won’t be surprised if they escape Blacksburg with a win.

2:30: North Carolina @ Miami (ESPNU): Okay, so maybe a three-game winning streak that included two come-from-behind last-minute victories wasn’t really that great after all. Also Miami’s defense is awful. I expect Carolina to run all over them en route to a win.

3:00:

  • Utah @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Okay, Oregon State made sense, but losing to a previously winless in FBS Cal is one thing. Losing 41-7 to previously winless in FBS is quite another. That said, they should still beat Utah.
  • Maryland @ Virginia (ACC): This game could end 12-9, no joke. I’ll take the Cavs at home.

3:30:

  • Stanford @ Notre Dame (NBC): I think it’s fair to say at this point Stanford is probably good this year but not great. However, a win here would put the Irish firmly on the map and possibly vault them into the national title discussion. I think they’ll pull it off, at least here (remember, the Irish still go on the road to Norman and Los Angeles).
  • Alabama @ Missouri (CBS): Mizzou only scored 15 against Vanderbilt last weekend. This one’s going to be ugly.
  • Oregon State @ Brigham Young (ABC/ESPN): This will be BYU’s hardest test so far this year, against the out-of-nowhere #10 Beavers. I’ll have to go with the conventional wisdom here.
  • West Virginia @ Texas Tech (ABC): So far this year TTU has lost to the teams they’re supposed to and beat everyone else. No exception here.
  • Illinois @ Michigan (ABC/ESPN): The one constant in the Big Ten this year is that Illinois has been awful. I also expect this trend to continue.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas (FSN): It’s been a mildly disappointing season for OSU this year, but they still have the best offense in the country. KU is 86th in points against. Yeah. The over/under for this game is 110. I was planning to make a “take the over even though KU may not even score a touchdown” but that seems a tad far-fetched. Well, maybe only a tad.
  • Fresno State @ Boise State (NBCS): Boise is ranked this week, just of the heck of it I guess. I don’t think they’ll beat Fresno.

5:30: Boston College @ Florida State (ESPN2): The clock struck midnight on the FSU potential national title run last week, with the last-minute loss to NC State. However, well, BC is just, well, really bad.

6:00: Florida @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): File this under the standard “Vandy probably gives a valiant effort and goes into the half still in the game and then some call or bounce of the ball goes against their way late in the 3rd quarter and the game is out of reach by the middle of the 4th” sort of game. That said, Vandy could very well be favored in the rest of their games except maybe Tennessee.

7:00:

  • Southern California @ Washington (FOX): Washington bore witness the full power of Oregon’s fully-operational Death Star of an offense last week. USC is pretty good too, but they’re not perfect and it may take awhile for them to get going, but it’s hard to pick against the Trojans here.
  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (FSN): TCU will be, by far, the best defense Baylor has faced all year. This isn’t really saying much but the Bears aren’t putting up 70 in the game. I would like TCU to win but their QB is out of the year, but Baylor is still a bit of a reluctant pick for me.
  • Kentucky @ Arkansas (SEC/FSN): Arkansas I guess?

8:00:

  • South Carolina @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Yeah, South Carolina also does the defense thing and more than a little of the offense thing. I like the Gamecocks here.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Central Florida (CBSS): Boy howdy USM sure isn’t very good this year are they? I guess they’ll show up a lot here because they were supposed to be good and had a lot of their games picked up by CBSS? We’ll see as the season goes on.
  • Ohio State @ Indiana (BTN): Hey Urban, Akron’s not that far away. Terry Bowden can tell you all about having great seasons while not being eligible for anything.

9:00: Tennessee @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): Mississippi State is the least talked about 5-0 team in the history for the SEC, I’d reckon. Of course, their best win is probably, um, Kentucky or maybe even Troy. I suspect they will soon quietly be 6-0.

9:15: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Louisiana Tech (@Shreveport, LA; ESPNU): There could be some fireworks in this late game (there’s a later Pac-12 game but DirecTV hasn’t picked up the Pac-12 Network yet), that’s for sure, but TAMU’s defense should help them take over the game at some point.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

Due to circumstances, this will be quick. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Navy @ Air Force (CBS): Navy is 0-3 against FBS competition this year, including last week’s 12-0 defeat to San Jose State. It’s hard to see how they’re going to beat Air Force.

Noon:

  • Kansas @ Kansas State (FX): No wizardry should be needed for the Wildcats to prevail.
  • Northwestern @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): Penn State has won three straight, which is probably three more than some would’ve predicted they’d win all year. Nonetheless, I think Northwestern will beat them.
  • Arkansas @ Auburn (ESPN2): This one has the potential to be awful. I’ll take the Tigers, narrowly.
  • Connecticut @ Rutgers (ESPNU): I’m going with Rutgers because they didn’t lose to Western Michigan this year.
  • Boise State @ Southern Mississippi (FSN): It’s weird to say that a mid-major team has been disappointing, but that’s how USM partisans are summing up this season. Boise had no great expectations this year, coming in with major college football’s youngest roster. Both parties will be thankful that today’s forecast does not call for any rain, unlike the deluge last weekend’s game was in. Also, Boise should win.
  • Boston College @ Army (CBSS): Army is just plain bad this year. So bad even Boston College can beat them.
  • Michigan State @ Indiana (BTN): Sparty should pick up his first Big Ten win of the year down in Bloomington.
  • Mississippi State @ Kentucky (SEC): Once every few years, Kentucky fields a team capable of putting up a fight. This isn’t one of them.

12:30: Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (ACC): VPI has had its struggles this year, but Carolina still has no legitimate victories this year, so I’ll take the Hokies.

3:00:

  • Arizona @ Stanford (FOX): Even with last week’s upset at Washington, this is still a plenty capable Stanford team. And they have the capability to beat Arizona.
  • Virginia @ Duke (ACC): UVA has lost three straight, most recently losing to Louisiana Tech’s spread attack. Duke also likes to spread ’em out and throw the ball, which does not bode well for UVA. Yes, folks, I am predicting Duke to win an ACC game.

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (CBS): I’m not sure anyone expected the Gators to get out of September 4-0, but here we are. That said, I think their luck runs out against LSU.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (ABC/ESPN2): Oof. Okay maybe we expected Illinois to be awful but Wisconin’s best win so far this year is probably their narrow win over Utah State. Yeah. They should still beat Illinois though.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (ABC/ESPN2): Texas Tech’s undefeated season ends here.
  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ESPN): What do you even say after getting run out of your own stadium by Middle Tennessee State? Anyway, the general rule for Tech-Clemson is “narrow GT win” or “Clemson blowout”. Despite that, I think it’s really anyone’s guess what will happen up there later today. Not much else to say, really.
  • Wake Forest @ Maryland (ESPNU): Speaking of not much to say, uh, Maryland I guess.
  • Iowa State @ Texas Christian (FSN): I still like TCU to win here even minus their starting QB, but it will just be that much harder.
  • Tulsa @ Marshall (CBSS): While doing the bare minimum amount of research I do for these things, I discovered that Tulsa is 63rd nationally in passing but 12th in rushing, whereas Marshall is 3rd in passing and 65th rushing. Almost completely opposite of what I was expecting. That said, I still like the Golden Hurricane here.

4:00: Michigan @ Purdue (BTN): If this Michigan offense can’t get better against Purdue, than who will they get better against? Reluctantly going with the Maize and Blue here.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Texas (FOX): I hope you like points! That said, WVU is definitely more proficient at this scoring thing, while it feels like Texas is still getting the hang of it.
  • Georgia @ South Carolina (ESPN): Going with South Carolina here for reasons I don’t fully understand.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Mississippi (ESPNU): This one could get ugly for Ole Miss.
  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC/FSN): It looks like Mizzou will probably get their first SEC conference win against the Commodores, but I sort of hope they don’t.

7:30: Miami @ Notre Dame (NBC): This suddenly became an interesting game once again in the past two weeks, as the Hurricanes seem to have found themselves a quarterback. If he’s on his game, this will be by far the confident and competent offense the so-far stout Notre Dame defense has faced all year. I’m actually giving a slight edges to the ‘Canes.

8:00:

  • Nebraska @ Ohio State (ABC): Ohio State seems to be the spiritual successor of Auburn from 1993, where the Tigers were also on probation but went undefeated anyway. I like the Buckeyes here,
  • Florida State @ North Carolina State (ESPN2): I like FSU’s chances to continue their rampage through the ACC here. It’s just like the good ol’ days. Well, if you’re a FSU fan at least.
  • Hawaii @ San Diego State (CBSS): Neither of these teams is very good, but I’ll take the one that didn’t have to fly halfway across the Pacific.

10:30: Washington @ Oregon (ESPN): Washington attempts to make it two weeks in a row with a big upset. But this time, they’ll be on the road in Eugene and facing the most well-oiled offensive machine in the country. I can’t say I like their chances.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Baylor @ West Virginia (FX): Baylor’s off to a 3-0 start but I think they’re going to be in for a rude awakening WVU’s first Big 12 game.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Illinois (ESPN): Both these teams are 2-2, but one of them just got blown out by Louisiana Tech. I’ll take the Nittany Lions.
  • Minnesota @ Iowa (ESPN2): Minnesota’s 4-0 record won’t last forever, but at least they managed to beat the directional Michigan team they played, unlike Iowa.
  • North Carolina State @ Miami (ESPNU): Miami: has better athletes than you and occasionally applies them in a constructive way. Which I think has a good chance of happening to NC State.
  • Missouri @ Central Florida (FSN): Side note: I keep forgetting Mizzou is in the SEC now. When I’m looking up team records on the ESPN standings page I always look for them under the Big 12. I don’t have this problem for TAMU, Colorado, or Nebraska though. Anyway, despite being in Orlando for some reason they’ll probably win.
  • Indiana @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern is 4-0 and has played 3 teams from BCS conferences so far this year. Okay, those teams were Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Boston College, but still. Indiana meanwhile was part of the MAC-reckoning last weekend and lost to Ball State. I like the Wildcats’s chances of getting to 5-0.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): What do you say about a loss like the one last week? The game looked like a blowout after the first quarter, and then we shut them out and surpass them in the middle two quarters. Then everything goes wrong in the fourth quarter and we lose in overtime again.
    What’s the story going to be for Tech this year? It’s hard to say now, as the ACC title is out-of-reach with two conference losses in September (side note: can we just get a ban on conference games in September?). Pretty much all that is left for Tech at this point is to try to ruin our rivals’ seasons. But that’s really the story for the vast majority of college football teams, as the twelve-game season is such a fickle mistress.
    As for this game, this is (somewhat surprisingly) MTSU’s first game against a major conference opponent. They lost to a FCS team in their opener but have recovered to win two straight, albeit against FAU and Memphis.
  • Arkansas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (SEC): Arkansas is a train wreck at this point, with John L. Smith again giving you the reason why you can’t look away. I highly suspect TAMU will get their first SEC win here.

12:30: Duke @ Wake Forest (ACC): Both Duke and Wake are 3-1. Of course, those losses were blowouts against obviously superior competition (Stanford and Florida State). That said, the Blue Devils can really throw the ball and Wake can’t really do much in the way of defending, so I like their chances.

3:15: Marshall @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue is in the ever-narrowing category of Big Ten teams that have yet to embarrass themselves this season. They shouldn’t have much an issue with this edition of the Thundering Herd.

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Georgia (CBS): It was tempting to say the sky was falling for the Volunteers when they lost to Florida. It will be tempting to say again after this game.
  • Ohio State @ Michigan State (ABC): Ohio State almost fell victims themselves to the Big Ten’s general malaise last weekend but woke up just in time to beat UAB by multiple scores. I actually think they’ll be just fine against the Spartans.
  • Clemson @ Boston College (ESPN2): Boston College appears to still be awful, so… yeah.
  • Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati (@Landover, MD; ESPNU): Okay Cincy has only played two games this season so I kind of think they’re good but I’m not really sure. Meanwhile, VPI has just been all over the map. I’ll err on the side of them not losing to the Big East twice this season, though.
  • Houston vs. Rice (@Houston, TX; FSN): Boy howdy Rice is really bad this year. But wait, so is Houston! Well, at least the Owls managed to get more than one score against UCLA, so I’ll take them.
  • San Jose State @ Navy (CBSS): It is a theoretically possibility that you may watch this game. I’m not sure why, but you could. Actually it turns out SJSU isn’t awful and Navy has no wins this year against FBS competition, so I actually like them here.
  • Idaho @ North Carolina (ACC/FSN): Poor Idaho πŸ™

4:00: Arizona State @ California (FX): Cal is also winless so far this year against FBS competition. Obviously that won’t go on forever but I have to say I do not like their chances against the Sun Devils.

6:00: Florida State @ South Florida (ESPN): USF lost last weekend to Ball State. I deem their odds of victory are slim.

7:00:

  • South Carolina @ Kentucky (ESPN2): The Gamecocks are 4-0 pretty much in spite of themselves, I’m convinced. And with Kentucky back to being Kentucky this year their chances of getting to 5-0 are looking pretty good.
  • Towson @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): I wouldn’t have listed this except it’s on an ESPN network.
  • Texas Christian @ Southern Methodist (FSN): If it weren’t so late I’d look up the rivalry trophy for this game. Instead you’ll just have to settle for me telling you that TCU’s probably going to win.
  • Texas Tech @ Iowa State (FCS): We will know slightly more about these teams after this game, because for now this may be the shakiest pair of undefeated teams in the country. I’ll take Texas Tech almost entirely because they’re not Iowa State.

7:30: Texas @ Oklahoma State (FOX): The Cowboys have only played one other team with a pulse this year: Arizona, by whom they ended up getting pummeled. Texas hasn’t really played anyone with a pulse (Ole Miss doesn’t count) but so we’ll just have to go with “well they’ve looked pretty solid so far”.

8:00:

  • Wisconsin @ Nebraska (ABC): Wisconsin might be the worst 3-1 team in the country. For starters, they lost 10-7 to Oregon State. Their combined margin of victory in their three wins is 18 points. These games were against Northern Iowa, Utah State, and UTEP. Not exactly murderer’s row there. Nebraska is 3-1 as well, but their loss was to UCLA, and they solidly beat the cupcake portion of their schedule, so I’ll go with the home team.
  • Louisville @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): Southern Miss is probably one of the disappointments of the year so far, as they were generally though to be a pretty strong C-USA team. It hasn’t panned out, and will likely continue to not pan out against Louisville.

9:15: Mississippi @ Alabama (ESPN): Good thing this one is late, as what’s going to happen to Ole Miss probably isn’t safe for the kids to see. Reminder: in four games this season, the Alabama defense has allowed 21 points. Alabama’s slimmest margin of victory this year is 27 points, from their win over Michigan. Yeah.

10:30: Oregon vs. Washington State (@Seattle, WA; ESPN2): Well, one Pac-12 power has been upset at CenturyLink field this week, why not another? Oh, right, Wazzou is awful. I think we’re all getting a pretty good idea of how slim the pickings were out in Pullman for Mike Leach. It may take awhile for him to restock the cupboard with any sort of talent.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Maryland @ West Virginia (FX): One of these teams is awful. The other isn’t. I’ll get you guess which is which.
  • Virginia @ Texas Christian (ESPN): I can pretty comfortably say at this point that UVA is not that good this year. TCU should win easily.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Wisconsin has had some problems this year. Okay, a lot of problems. Like almost losing to Utah State. But problems enough to lose to UTEP? No, probably not.
  • Bowling Green @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): Dear Virginia Tech: how in the hell did you lose to Pitt? No, seriously, what the hell? I’m angry about this and I’m even a VPI fan because it makes me angry all over again about our game being in week one. Argh. Whatever, they should probably be able to beat a team from the MAC.
  • Mississippi @ Tulane (FSN): Don’t look, but Tulane is really awful. But hey, there’s probably plenty of Ole Miss fans down in New Orleans to help fill the Superdome.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Ohio State (BTN): Just… why? If you get satellite watch the other Big Ten Network game, Central Michigan @ Iowa. Er, well, maybe just watch something else entirely.
  • Kentucky @ Florida (SEC): Florida looks almost kind of good? I still don’t trust them. Well, I’ll trust them to the extent that I think they’ll beat Kentucky, at least.

12:30: Army @ Wake Forest (ACC): Hey, if they’re on TV, I list ’em. That’s how things work around here. Wake wins.

3:00: Miami @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): I am so confused. Since the 2008 Miami game, wherein we ran roughshod over their defense, Miami has basically owned Tech. But the circumstances of these two teams so far couldn’t be more different. Miami got slaughtered two weeks ago by Kansas State (by the way: Bill Synder is a wizard). GT is, of course, coming of the incineration of UVA (it’s always fun when you can say things like “the final score was 56-20 and it wasn’t even that close”). But nonetheless, “physical superiority cancels all theories” and that is always the worry when lining up against da U’s array of blue chip recruits. So we’ll see.

3:30:

  • Missouri @ South Carolina (CBS): Well, we’re about to find a lot more about both these teams. Because speaking of teams I don’t trust, South Carolina may be near the top of the list. I’ll take them over Mizzou, but narrowly, because I don’t think the Tigers are as bad as they looked against UGA, their only meaningful competition to date.
  • Temple @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): I’m doing a pick’em over on an Internet forum I frequent and it appears I picked Temple in this game. Uh, hrm. I mean, it’s possible, but still. Go Owls, I guess?
  • Oregon State @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/ESPN2): Since their game in week 1 got postponed, the Beavers have literally only played one game this year: their 10-7 (at the time) upset of Wisconsin. UCLA has surprised everyone so far this season basically by not being completely awful, so I expect that trend to continue.
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina (ESPNU): When will the bleeding stop for UNC? Is it against the Pirates? I’m guessing yes.
  • Virginia Military @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
  • Idaho State @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska.

4:00: Colorado @ Washington State (FX): Everyone expected Colorado to be awful. Wazzou, on the other hand, well, I guess we’re getting an idea of what Paul Wulff was working with these past few years because the expected results have not quite materialized for Mike Leach. That said, Colorado is like, really, really bad you guys.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Auburn (ESPN): Ah, yes, overtime escapes against Louisiana-Monroe. Yeah, I reckon that clock has just struck midnight for Gene Chizik and he’s starting to turn back into a pumpkin. LSU rolls.
  • Rutgers @ Arkansas (ESPNU): 7:00 is apparently the SEC Train Wreck Power Hour, though Arkansas is arguably worse since they’re the ones that lost to UL-Monroe. I actually like Rutgers here.

7:30:

  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma (FOX): It bears repeating: Bill Snyder is a wizard. But that said, we really know almost nothing about both these teams, and on paper, I still have to like the Sooners. But that means I won’t enjoy it if the Wizard conjures up another inexplicable victory.
  • Michigan @ Notre Dame (NBC): Don’t get me wrong: I am not confusing Notre Dame’s defense with Alabama’s. Nonetheless, they were able to go up to East Lansing and completely shut down Sparty. They should have an advantage at home against a Michigan team that looked shaky in their first two games, one of which was against Air Force.

7:45: Vanderbilt @ Georgia (ESPN2): The only team I like seeing beat UGA more than us is Vandy, simply because UGA had the gall to schedule them for Homecoming in 2006, suffering a defeat for their hubris. (Mmm, hubris.) Unfortunately, for every other year since 1995, Georgia has won, and this a state of affairs I expect to continue.

8:00:

  • Clemson @ Florida State (ABC): Neither of these teams have played anyone (yes, Clemson beat Auburn, but that’s looking less impressive by the minute) and sport 3-0 records. So how do you choose? Well, that indicates this game should be good, and this is also the first team FSU’s played that really even has a pulse. I still like the Noles but they might actually end up behind in a game for the first time all season.
  • Fresno State @ Tulsa (CBSS): Prediction: points. By whom: both teams. Who has more at the end: probably Tulsa, but this could go either way.
  • Syracuse @ Minnesota (BTN): UMN has ridden a schedule of nobodies to 3-0, which is a shot in the arm at least for a program that hasn’t won more than 3 games in 3 years. Then again, I would expect the ‘Cuse to be 3-0 against that schedule as well. So I’ll take the Orange in what’s probably a very minor upset.

10:30:

  • Arizona @ Oregon (ESPN): Points. Lots of points. But Oregon is better that game and should prevail in the end.
  • Nevada @ Hawaii (NBCS): Nevada seems pretty solid so far this year, while Hawaii did beat a FCS team 54-2. I’ll stick with Nevada here.

Sorry that this was short, curt, and more than a little nonsensical, but well, look at the timestamp. Things have been pretty hectic lately. So until next time!

    2014 World Cup Update: A Lot of Stuff Happened/Nothing Happened

    Two years out from the World Cup are the doldrums of qualifying. Most confederations are in the middle of their qualification process now and there’s little action either way (with some exceptions). I won’t post the map because nothing has changed since July except that Cuba was eliminated. That’s really it. I did, however, update the full list that’s right here on the site to reflect that, as well as Europe beginning its process.

    First, let’s start with Asia.

    AFC
    The AFC is in its fourth round of qualification, out of five. They’ll have two more rounds of games in October and November this year, but that still will likely not solve anything except for maybe Japan, who are definitively in the driver’s seat in Group B. They only played one game in September, but the major news is Australia’s continuing underwhelming performances. The Socceroos are still without a victory and lost 2-1 to Jordan. The Aussies could still very easily finish second in their group, but they need to get it together to avoid being upstaged and sent to the play-off round or out of the World Cup entirely. In Group A, South Korea is in control but doesn’t have the same grip on their group that their 2002 co-hosts do. Iran, Quatar, and Lebanon are all sitting on four points in the middle of the group, so this will likely go down to the wire next June.

    CAF
    Not much to report from Africa, since they won’t play again until next March.

    CONCACAF
    North America is where all the action is, since the all the big boys are currently in play and trying to advance final round, with those spots to be decided in October. In Group A, the US, Guatemala, and Jamaica are all sitting on 7 points with only two games to play. The US plays last-place Antigua and Barbuda on October 12 while Guatemala and Jamaica duke it out in Guatemala. If the US and Guatemala win, this is very bad news for the Jamaicans as the two play each other in the last match, meaning that both sides can play for the draw to advance. A draw between the two or a Jamaican victory (or the US not winning) will ensure that things stay very interesting on October 16 though.

    In Group B, Mexico has won all its matches and ensured advancement to the next round. This leaves El Salvador and Costa Rica battling for the second spot, with the two going head-to-head on the 12th. The two drew in their previous meeting in Costa Rica. However, if the Salvadorians win at home, things will still be unsettled as they play Mexico in the 16th while the Costa Ricans get last-place Guyana. This one could very easily come down to goal differential.

    In Group C, Cuba has already been eliminated and Panama can advance with a win at home against Honduras. Also in this fight is Canada, which really needs to take advantage of playing Cuba at home by getting the three points. The Honduras-Canada match on the 16th seems like it will be a winner-advances, loser-goes-home match.

    CONMEBOL
    The main surprise from South America so far is probably that Argentina and Uruguay (considered the two strongest sides in the region along with automatically qualified hosts Brazil) have failed to separate themselves from the pack. Both sides drew last week to teams generally not considered all that strong, with the Uruguayans drawing 1-1 against Ecuador and Argentina drawing 1-1 against Peru. The former is understandable, at least, but the latter less so. But there’s still a long way to go, with most of the teams still having 9 games to play.

    OFC
    New Zealand got off to a good start, recovering from their debacle at the OFC Nations Cup (where they came in 3rd) by defeating New Caledonia and Tahiti. Speaking of Tahiti, though, they won the Nations Cup and thus will be at the Confederations Cup next year, but so far are sporting 0 points and a -6 goal differential after the first two games of this last qualifying round. Whoops. Anyway, if the All Whites take care of business over the next two dates in October, the matches next March will likely not matter.

    UEFA
    The Europeans finally got started, with almost everyone having gotten two matches in the books this month. However, it’s too early to really make anything other than general observations so far, so we’ll hit the surprises. For instance, Italy drew in their first match 2-2 with Bulgaria. Group H is just a barrel of surprises. Montenegro opened with a 2-2 draw of Poland and obliterated San Marino (okay, that part isn’t surprising), to get to four points. England needed a penalty to get a 1-1 draw with the Ukraine, putting them at four points (they obliterated Moldolva). The Poles themselves are right there with four points as well, and the Ukrainians probably will be on October once they play again. At first glance one would definitely say there are three strong sides in this group, so the main thing is throwing Montenegro into the mix. I would argue this is the Group of Death, but many would also point to Group I, with Spain and France. While Group I stronger at the top, Group H is much deeper. Nonetheless, the defending world champions Spain began with a somewhat lackluster 1-0 victory over Georgia. The French also opened with a 1-0 win, but after the debacle that was their last world cup cycle they should be more than overjoyed with the two wins so far. (Don’t forget that not only did the French team basically quit at the World Cup, they only got there due to Thierry Henry’s “hand of God” goal in the playoff qualification match against Ireland in 2009.)

    That’s about all for now. Look for another post after the action in October, when we’ll eliminate five more teams from CONCACAF.