Bowl Games 2012: Opening Slate

New for this year: announcers! Last year’s “fun facts” return only for selected games, as least for the opening slate here as I have not had enough time to to do my research.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 15
1:00: Arizona vs. Nevada (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Arizona’s been a pretty solid team in the last half of the season, with the cornerstone of their year the upset over USC. Nevada has an okay year, by their standards. They made a bowl again, but I believe they were one of the preseason favorites in the Mountain West and they wound up dropping games all the teams they needed to beat. Anyway, in this cats vs. dogs battle, I like the Wildcats.
Previous meetings: This is the first time these two schools in neighboring states have met since 1941. Nevada won in 1924, they played a 0-0 draw in 1925, and then the Wildcats go on the board in 1941 with a win.
Last bowl game: This is Arziona’s first appearance in a bowl game since the 2010 Alamo Bowl, which they lost to Oklahoma State 36-10. Nevada has made a bowl every year since 2005, and actually played in this game in 2007. They lost to hosts New Mexico, 23-0.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Danny Kannel

4:30: Utah State vs. Toledo (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): While Toledo did get a big upset this year (a win over Big East frontrunners Cincinnati), Utah State was 5 points away from an undefeated season (2 to Wisconsin, who I remind you are somehow the Big Ten champions, and 3 to BYU). They also upset WAC frontrunners Louisiana State, in Louisiana. I’m going with the Aggies.
Previous meetings: Somewhat unsurprisingly, this is the first meeting between these two schools.
Last bowl game: Utah State appeared in this game last year, losing to Ohio 24-23. Toledo is making its third straight bowl appearance. They beat Air Force in the Military Bowl last year, 42-41.
Announcers: Tom Hart, Mike Bellotti
Fun facts:

Hope everyone is as excited as we are! #Toledo vs. #UtahState twitter.com/IDPotatoBowl/s…
— FamousIDPotatoBowl (@IDPotatoBowl) December 3, 2012

Yes, that is a picture of Brono Stadium set inside of a baked potato. I don’t feel like I really need to say much else.

Thursday, December 20
8:00: Brigham Young vs. San Diego State (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): BYU is a pretty good team, but their offense has just been sadly lacking in the second half of the season. I’m not putting a lot of confidence on this one, though.
Previous meetings: Thanks to a shared conference history in the WAC and then the MWC, these two have met quite a lot (every year from 1978 to 2010). However, since BYU went independent, they haven’t played. The Stormin’ Mormons are 27-7-1 against the Aztecs.
Last bowl game: BYU has played in a bowl game every year since 2005, most recently beating Tulsa in last year Armed Forces Bowl. This’ll be the Aztech’s third straight, and they’ll be staying home once again. They got to travel to New Orleans last year, where they lost to the local Cajuns 32-30.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn, Rod Gilmore

Friday, December 21
7:30: Central Florida vs. Ball State (Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): UCF went big this year, but they failed to get the result that presumably would’ve made the impending NCAA banhammer worth it, as they lost to Tulsa in the CUSA title game. Ball State, meanwhile. enters on a relative high note, having closed their season in strong fashion against their MAC rivals. That said, I think on paper UCF is still the better team, so I’ll go with them here.
Previous meetings: Ball State owns the all-time series, 2-1.
Last bowl game: We last saw Ball State in the 2008/9 GMAC Bowl, where they were obliterated by Tulsa 45-13. This’ll be UCF’s first bowl appearance since the wonderful 2010 Liberty Bowl, where they beat Georgia 10-6.
Announcers: Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Desmond Howard

Saturday, December 22
Noon: East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I’m not going to pick Sun Belt teams to win very often, but here we are. UL-Lafayette has flirted with greatness several times this year, while ECU scraped their way to 8 wins.
Previous meetings: From 1977 to 1990, these teams met 10 times and UL-Lafayette came out ahead, 6-4. They have not met since.
Last bowl game: ECU had a modest bowl streak broken last year, so they last appeared in a bowl game in the 2010 Military Bowl. They got blown out by Maryland 51-20. These particular Cajuns last Raged in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, where they beat San Diego State 32-30.
Announcers: Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway

3:30: Washington vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ESPN): It took a week, but here’s our first real bowl game of the season. This is just the sort of situation Boise has thrived on the past, that is to say, 1-game chances to pick off a Pac-10/12 opponent. That said, with this particular bunch I would ordinarily pick the Huskies here but, well, one of these teams lost to Washington State Thankgiving weekend, and it wasn’t Boise. I’ll take the Broncos in a narrow win.
Previous meetings: These two have met exactly once, in 2007. U-Dub won 24-10.
Last bowl game: This’ll be Washington’s third straight bowl game, and third different locale. They lost last year’s (in)famously defense-less Alamo Bowl to Baylor, 67-56. Boise’s been to a bowl every year since 2002, and they only missed 2001 because there weren’t a million bowl games back then. (They were 8-4.) They won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl 56-24 over Arizona State.
Announcers: Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit. Ol’ Brent at the Las Vegas Bowl? I swear, the jokes just practically write themselves.

Monday, December 24
8:00: Southern Methodist vs. Fresno State (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): June Jones is back in Hawaii! Woo? Fresno has generally beat the teams they should beat this year, while SMU lost to Tulane and Rice, barely getting to 6-6. I like the Bulldogs.
Previous meetings: SMU and Fresno met every year between 1999 and 2004. It didn’t go so well for the Mustangs, as Fresno is 5-1 all-time.
Last bowl game: This is SMU’s fourth straight bowl. They beat Pittsburgh in last year’s BBVA Compass Bowl, 28-6. Fresno had a pretty good thing going for awhile, but they missed a bowl last year so their last postseason game was the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl, which they lost 40-17 to Northern Illinois.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn, Kelly Stouffer

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

There’s only one FBS game this weekend, so as usual this also doubles as my yearly foray into the FCS playoffs.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
8:00: Sam Houston State @ Montana State (ESPN2): It will be below freezing in Bozeman tonight with a 90% chance of snow. That’s reason enough to watch this if you ask me, though Montana State doesn’t quite have the same appeal as Montana does in terms of “played in what appears to be some sort of post-apocalyptic hellscape with a football stadium in it”.

Saturday
Noon: Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion (ESPN): The reason to watch this is, of course, Georgia Southern’s Paul Johnson-style option attack.

1:00: Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Jackson State (SWAC Championship @ Birmingham, AL; ESPNU): APB already played Jackson State back in October and won 34-24. I’ll say it again: the SWAC only has 10 teams and they already play a 9 game conference schedule. What’s the point of this again?

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@Philadelpha, PA; CBS): Army’s win over Boston College says more about BC than it does Army, and their win over Air Force that makes this game the deciding game for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy really came out of nowhere. Those are the only two wins for the Black Knights this year. Also, I hope you like running, because both of these teams are in the top 10 in rushing yards and the bottom 4 in passing. Fortunately, I do, so that’s why I’ll be watching this one anyway. Given their track records this year, though, it is pretty much impossible to pick Army to winthis.

Bowl Predictions 2012: Final

Okay folks, here’s the final edition of my bowl predictions. They come in three flavors, in order of most to least likely:

  1. Oklahoma in the BCS
  2. Northern Illinois in the BCS
  3. Boise State in the BCS

Note that as bids are announced, the final table will take its form in the usual place.

Basically, the factor right now is where Northern Illinois and Boise end up in the final polls. Currently, most experts are predicting NIU will fall just short, but it really depends on how high the Huskies climb. No one is really giving Boise much of a shot, but I’ve thrown them in there anyway. For the purposes of tracking my predictions, if one of the alternate scenarios does happen, I will use those.

Other than that, there’s a few potential pitfalls out there. I adjusted these rankings for the news as of about 2 AM Pacific time, as actual bids will probably start to leak out later this afternoon. Other than the BCS picture, some things to watch are:

  • How will the Big Ten bowls handle Nebraska? After getting embarrassed by Wisconsin, many are sending Nebraska to the Outback Bowl instead of the Capital One.
  • Georgia Tech. GT would be content with not going to the Sun Bowl again, but I haven’t heard or seen anything about the situation other than that.
  • The bottom of the Big 12. The Big 12 will have an extra team even if Oklahoma gets into the BCS. I have Iowa State on the outside looking in, and I did not see a lot of news about them. It is no longer a rule that 6-6 teams must be chosen behind everyone else in the at-large pool, but there aren’t that many at-large slots available that do not already have contractually obligated backups. One possibility for them is the Heart of Dallas Bowl, where I currently have Ball State.
  • Georgia. I saw multiple articles that had UGA going to the Cotton Bowl, which would send LSU down to the Chick-fil-a. The Capital One will probably take Texas A&M, which sets up LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina all fighting for the Cotton and Outback slots. Note that the Cotton generally is supposed to prefer SEC West teams, but it is not required to take them.

That’s about it. As the bids roll in tomorrow, I will be updating the main page.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:30: Louisville @ Rutgers (ESPN): I’ve given up on predicting the Big East at this point seeing as how both these teams managed to lose last weekend. And don’t even get me started on picking Louisville over UConn for ACC expansion. Anyway, the quick fire prediction here is Louisville.

Friday
7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State (MAC Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): It’s exceedingly possible this game will be much more compelling than the Pac-12 championship. On one side, NIU has one of the most dynamic quarterback and wide receiver duos in the country, while with a win the Golden Flashes’s first bowl game since 1972 could end up being the Orange Bowl. However, I actually like the Huskies better. While both have top-10 rushing offenses, NIU has a more credible passing game (see above) and a slightly better defense.

8:00: California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (Pac-12 Championship; FOX): The idea that UCLA purposely threw last week’s regular season game against Stanford so they could play Stanford again is ludicrous, mostly because the idea anyone actually wants to play the Cardinal twice in two weeks is the same. (As EDSBS put it, playing Stanford is like “being bludgeoned with a sack of sledgehammers”.) Anyway, the idea that UCLA will succeed this time is not ludicrous, but still highly unlikely.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Oklahoma State @ Baylor (FX): Both teams played overtime games this past weekend, though I think most would agree Oklahoma is better than Texas Tech. Expect plenty of points, also, take a drink every time the Baylor defense makes a stop and the announcers insinuate they’re not as bad as the statistics show. (I suspect that’s not really a very good drinking game since it won’t result in you taking a lot of drinks, so maybe make it a shot or something.) Also the Cowboys should win.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas Christian (ESPN): TCU had a great win last Thanksgiving, but I think it’s been thoroughly demonstrated by now that the Sooners have it slightly more together on offense.
  • Central Florida @ Tulsa (Conference USA Championship; ESPN2): Okay, so based on what I said about UCLA-Stanford I guess I have to pick Tulsa again here, but on the flip side UCF is pretty much banking on this season being awesome. Or they should be, because by delaying their bowl ban via an appeal I’m pretty sure the NCAA will bring the hammer down on them. So I’m somewhat irrationally going with the Golden Knights here.

2:30: Kansas @ West Virginia (FSN): Despite how awful they’ve been this year, no one has yet scored 60 on KU. That may change. Also the Jayhawk offense is so bad that WVU doesn’t even have to worry about how terrible their defense is.

3:30:

  • Boise State @ Nevada (ABC): I’m a little surprised this game is on ABC. Anyway, the Broncos will probably win but I think Nevada is good enough to make a game of it.
  • Cincinnati @ Connecticut (ABC): Not that it means much in the Big East, but Cincy should win this one.

4:00: Georgia vs. Alabama (SEC Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Despite watching my team lose to them by 32 last weekend, I still think UGA is overrated: their second best win all year is over Vanderbilt (or maybe Mississippi State, but they went and lost to Ole Miss, so…). Granted, Vandy is 8-4, but still. I’ll concede this year’s Alabama isn’t as good as last year’s, but I think they have a good enough defense to stop UGA and a good enough offense to overcome them.

7:00: Pittsburgh @ South Florida (ESPN2): This sure is a football game that will be televised and everything. Pitt probably becomes bowl eligible.

8:00:

  • Wisconsin vs. Nebraska (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Much to Nebraska’s relief, there will not be a 30 mile per hour wind inside of Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend. The Cornhuskers only won by three back in September, but that was then, and this is now.
  • Texas @ Kansas State (ABC): K-State has had a week to think about their shocking loss to Baylor. Nonetheless, their is still a chance to clinch a bid to the Fiesta Bowl for one of the best seasons in school history here, and I think they’ll get it.
  • Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (ACC Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): Where do you even begin? While no one expected GT to win last weekend, a fair number of reasonable people expected the Seminoles to expose the Florida once and for all. For a little while in the 3rd quarter, it looked like it was going to happen. Everything was going wrong for UF, including a freak bobble on a handoff that literally fell right into the arms of a FSU defensive end who ran it in for a touchdown. And then everything went wrong for FSU, to the tune of 24 straight points for the Gators and the win.
    Tech last played the Seminoles in 2008 and 2009, after the original bout of ACC realignment put them in separate divisions. As previously detailed here, Tech managed to win both of those games. Of course, those Tech teams were better, and those FSU teams worse than the current editions.
    Everything that could have gone wrong for Tech last weekend did, just about. Despite racking up 306 yards rushing against one of the nation’s top rushing defenses, we only scored one touchdown. The tone of the game was set on Tech’s first drive, as UGA’s first drive proved it was going to be a game where Tech needed to score on all of their drives to have a shot. At the end of a 10 play, 83 yard march down the field that started at our own 15, Robert Godhigh had the ball stripped as he was trying to go in for the tying touchdown at the UGA 1 yard line. Tech kicked a field goal the next time it got the ball to make it 14-3, but then the next three possessions of the first half ended on a turnover on downs, an interception, and a missed field goal.
    The keys for this game, and a shot at creating the most absurd BCS bowl game ever, lie in the same keys any team has in seeking to pull of an upset. Don’t turn the ball over and capitalize when they do. Basically, if any football cliche applicable to this situation, GT needs to adhere to it.