Category Archives: world cup

2014 World Cup Update: Commentary and Selected Scenarios for 10/15

Editor’s note: this was my draft going into last night, but some stuff came up and I could not finish it. I just wanted to publish the work I did for posterity. A proper wrap-up post will come soon.

Lots of stuff is bound to go down on Tuesday. Let’s have a look.

CAF

Nothing will conclude in Africa on the 15th, with the return leg of all the matches taking place in November. That said, we can talk about the early results. (INSERT)

CONCACAF

The US has secured the top of the table going into their match against Panama. First, let’s talk scenarios.

Team W D L GF GA Diff Pts
United States 6 1 2 12 6 +6 19
Costa Rica 4 3 2 11 6 +5 15
Honduras 4 2 3 11 10 +1 14
Mexico 2 5 2 6 7 -1 11
Panama 1 5 3 8 11 -3 8
Jamaica 0 4 5 3 11 -8 4

No matter what, Honduras can do worse than 4th place, so they have a spot in the inter-confederation playoff against New Zealand at least. Costa Rica already has a ticket to Brazil.

  • Honduras can clinch a spot in the World Cup Final with a win or draw against Jamaica.
  • Honduras can clinch with any Mexico draw or loss to Costa Rica.
  • Mexico can clinch a spot in the World Cup Final with a win over Costa Rica and a Honduras loss to Jamaica. Mexico would also need to win by at least two goals.
  • Mexico can clinch a spot in the Inter-Confederation Playoff with any win or draw.
  • Mexico can clinch a spot in the Inter-Confederation Playoff with any Panama draw or loss to the United States.
  • Panama can clinch a spot in the playoff with a win over the United States and a Mexico loss. Panama would need to beat the US by at least two goals. There are scenarios where Panama can prevail over Mexico if they finish with the same goal difference, provided Mexico does not overtake them in terms of total goals scored.

COMEBOL

Colombia clinched on Friday. The remaining three non-eliminated teams can do no worse than the Inter-Confederation playoff against Jordan. The remaining matches that matter are Chile vs. Ecuador and Uruguay vs. Argentina.

  • Ecuador and Chile will clinch a spot in the Final with any Uruguay draw or loss to Argentina.
  • Ecuador and Chile will clinch a spot in the Final if they draw against each other.
  • Uruguay can only clinch a spot in the final if there is a loser in the Ecuador-Chile match and if they beat Argentina. In that case, it will come down to goal difference. Uruguay currently has a –1 differential, while Ecuador is at +5 and Chile is at +3.

2014 World Cup Update: Commentary and Selected Scenarios for 10/11

It’s that time again. In many confederations we’re now in the home-stretch of qualifying. So let’s go confederation-by-confederation as usual and breakdown what we’re looking at.

Before we begin, though, I have updated many of the resources on the site here, including the status of every member of FIFA and the “Everything” chart.

AFC

Last month, Jordan clinched advancement to the inter-confederation playoff by defeating Uzbekistan 9-8 in penalties after each side drew 2-2 on aggregate. It’s a disappointing result for the Uzbeks, as at one time they were leading their group and only lost out on qualifying directly on goal difference with South Korea. What will they be haunted by? The own goal in Seoul back in June that led to a 1-0 loss? Allowing Qatar to score before they realized that they needed goals, triggering a furious comeback but ultimately coming up short despite the 5-1 win? Or the two misses in penalties against Jordan?

CAF

Saturday and Sunday mark the beginnings of the final play-off matches for Africa. 5 ties for 5 spots in Brazil. The draw?

Cote d’Ivoire Senegal
Ethiopia Nigeria
Tunisia Cameroon
Ghana Egypt
Burkina Faso Algeria

It’s hard not to root for Egypt, and not just because that means if they advance the US can’t lose to Ghana again. And it’s not the Bob Bradley revenge angle either. It’s because, and SI’s Grant Wahl explains, Bradley is the right man for the job, even after he was no longer the right man for his homeland.

CONCACAF

Costa Rica and the United States have clinched, and I still love watching these highlights from last month:

(I still get excited when I see the first Eddie Johnson header and see it get saved.)

So let’s look at the table and talk scenarios.

Team W D L GF GA Diff Pts
United States 5 1 2 10 6 +4 16
Costa Rica 4 3 1 11 5 +6 15
Honduras 3 2 3 10 10 0 11
Panama 1 5 2 7 9 -2 8
Mexico 1 5 2 4 6 -2 8
Jamaica 0 4 4 3 9 -6 4
  • Honduras will advance directly to the 2014 World Cup Final with a win and a Panama-Mexico draw. (This also means that Mexico and Panama would be able to do no better than qualify for the Inter-Confederation Playoff against New Zealand.)
  • Jamaica is completely eliminated with any draw or loss.

If there is a winner in Mexico City, then they are in good position to try to catch Honduras on goals on Tuesday, though Honduras will play Jamaica next week so that may still be difficult. Of course, if Costa Rica is following the same philosophy as the US, then Hondurans should have their work cut out for them even at home. Nonetheless, there’s a good chance the US game against Panama on Tuesday will matter, which leads to the question: who will be this cycle’s Jonathan Bornstein? (Let’s also snicker a little about how I asserted that Mexico will qualify. Whoops!)

OFC

I’m pretty sure the All Whites just want to know where they’re going to fly to already.

CONMEBOL

I’m not going to put the table here, but what you need to know is that Argentina has qualified and tat Colombia and Chile have clinched at least a spot in the play-off. Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay have all been eliminated. This leaves 4 teams vying for the three direct spots, plus Venezuela for the play-off spot.

Scenarios!

  • Venezuela will be eliminated if Ecuador-Uruguay is a draw.
  • Venezuela will be eliminated if they lose or draw to Paraguay.
  • Colombia will directly qualify with a win over Chile.
  • Colombia will directly qualify with a win or draw against Chile and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.
  • Chile will directly qualify with a win over Colombia and an Ecuador-Uruguay draw.

UEFA

I’m just going to go group-by-group here.

Group A

  • Belgium will directly qualify with a win or draw over Croatia.

Group B

Italy has already qualified, leaving a 4-way fight for second place. Unfortunately, having to take the ranking of the 2nd-place teams into account makes things too complicated for me to be willing to figure out. The teams in question are Bulgaria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Armenia. I will say I’d be pretty crestfallen if my Danish soccer-playing doppelganger doesn’t make it to Brazil.

Group C

  • Germany will qualify with a win or draw over Ireland.
  • Germany will qualify with a loss or draw by Sweden against Austria.

Group D

The Netherlands have already qualified, leaving Hungary, Turkey, and Romania fighting for second.

Group E

  • Switzerland will qualify with a win over Albania.
  • Switzerland will qualify with a draw and an Iceland loss or draw to Cyprus.

Group F

  • Russia will directly qualify with a win over Luxembourg and a Portugal loss to Israel.
  • Israel will be eliminated with a draw or loss to Portugal.

Group G

Both Bosnia and Greece have 19 points, so neither can clinch today. However, Bosnia is 15 goals better in the goal difference column, so Greece would need a ton of goals if they wound up tied in the end. Greece plays Slovakia while Bosnia gets Liechtenstein (and thus a really good chance for them to further pad that goal difference).

Group H

Only Moldova and San Marino have been eliminated in this group, so that means everything’s still in play. However, there is a scenario where one team can qualify directly.

  • England will clinch with a win over Montenegro and an Ukraine loss to Poland.

Group I

Spain and France are both sitting on 14 points, however, Spain has played one less game. They will play that one game today against Belarus, however, a win does not allow them to clinch just yet.

2014 World Cup Update: As of September 5

Soon, a fresh new batch of qualifiers will kick off around the world. We preview where the remaining teams stand and the obstacles they face between themselves and Brazil.

 Other than the hosts, 4 teams have qualified, 87 are still in play, and 27 spots remain.

AFC
Asia’s automatic qualifiers are now in place: Iran, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. But to determine their playoff qualifier against a South American team, the third place teams from their fourth round, Jordan and Uzbekistan, will kick off tomorrow. The games will take place Friday and Tuesday, and the winner on aggregate advances to the aforementioned playoff. Considering that they lost on a goal differential tiebreaker to South Korea, Uzbekistan should be the favorites. (The Jordanians sported a -9 goal differential to Uzbekistan’s +5.)

CAF
As you might’ve seen in the post on what’s needed to advance, there’s plenty of action on the last day of the CAF 2nd Round. Groups C, G, and H are settled though: Cote d’Ivorie, Egypt, and Algeria are all through to the third round, which will kickoff in October. Those three teams will join all the other group winners, and they will all be paired off in home-and-home ties. The winner of each of those advances directly to the World Cup.

CONCACAF
There’s actually a fun scenario I didn’t list on the page for CONCACAF, but mostly because it requires a very specific set of circumstances: the US must defeat Costa Rica, Mexico and Honduras must draw, and Panama must lose or draw against Jamaica. It’s complex because you can’t do the “add future points to current points”, you have to take the remaining schedules into account. (For instances, if Costa Rica wins out after losing to the US, then it’s not possible for Mexico win out, etc.)

Of course, that’s unlikely to happen. Jamaica has earned zero points in road games this round, and managed only a 1-1 draw at home with Panama. Mexico will be (well, they should be) desperate to hold serve at home against Honduras, though it’s not inconceivable Mexico will remain the same punchless team they’ve been most of this year and only manage a draw against what is likely to be a bunkered-in Honduras.

CONMEBOL
The top four teams currently are Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. Argentina has clinched at least a spot on the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, but they don’t play Friday so as far as I know they cannot clinch yet. The top four lead the 5th place team, Uruguay, by 5 points, which is comfortable but not yet insurmountable. They also have a winnable game against Peru on Friday that should allow them to keep up with the top 4 for now. Tied with Uruguay though are the surprising Venezuelans, who are seeking their first ever trip to the World Cup.

UEFA
The European picture lacks a great amount of clarity, despite most teams having four or fewer matches remaining.

The clearest is perhaps Group A, where Belgium or Croatia will make it past the first round, but since they are sitting on 19 and 16 points, respectively, it’s not clear who will come in first yet. Belgium seems to be the obvious candidate, undefeated so far in group play, but they still have to go on the road to Zagreb in October.

Though no one has been eliminated yet in Group B, Italy a slight edge as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic fight for second. If Italy can hold serve against Bulgaria at home on Friday, then they can start to get a little bit of separation.

Germany is close. They have 5 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in group play so far and have a 5 point lead over Austria. The real battle in Group C is the fight for second, as Austria, Sweden, and Ireland all sit on 11 points, so things could get pretty interesting come October.

The Dutch are running away with Group D, holding a 7 point lead over Hungary. Hungary themselves are only a point ahead of Romania. The fight is probably for second in Group E as well. Switzerland has a 4 point lead, but 4 points is all that separates second from fifth.

Group F is a tossup. Portugal (14), Russia (12), and Israel (11) are all within three points of the lead, a situation made all the more interesting when, back in August, Russia lost a snow make-up game to Northern Ireland. All three should win their matches Friday, meaning the real action starts on Tuesday when Russia plays Israel.

It’s tempting to go with the chalk in Group G, where Bosnia has 16 points (and a +20 goal differential), Greece has 13 points, and Slovakia has 9. But I would say don’t count out the Slovaks, who made the Sweet 16 in South Africa.

Group H proves looks can deceiving. Montenegro is topping the group with 14 points, but they’ve played one more game than England (12) and the Ukraine (11). Also on Friday, England and the Ukraine get winnable matches against minnows, while Poland at least stands a chance against Montenegro.

Everyone thought Group I would be a two-horse race, especially since those horses are the reigning champions and France. And, well, that’s pretty much the way it’s played out, but right now the Spanish are only up by a point. The difference in the group could be Spain’s win over France back in March.

That’s that! Don’t forget that ESPN will be streaming a boatload of qualifiers online, so be sure to catch them.

2014 World Cup Update: Dispatches from Abroad

After Sunday’s action, we have one more matchday to go this month, and it’ll be a doozy. But first, some stats. 88 teams are still in play for the World Cup Finals and 114 have been eliminated outright. Entering this month, there were 118 teams still in play.

CAF
First off, special congratulations to Egypt and Bob Bradley. This entire World Cup cycle has been marred by the violence in the country, and yet they cruised through their group, winning all five of their matches outright and clinching advancement to the next round of CAF’s qualification. The Pharaohs clinched Group G. Elsewhere in Africa, Ethiopia, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, and Algeria clinched their groups. I’ll take a look at the remaining groups as we get closer to September.

One other thing, you see some wacky scorelines sometimes in international football, but this one made me scratch my head.  4-1 based off three penalties, the last coming 8 minutes into added time? Also conveniently Gabon’s goal differential is now zero? And it was at home? Huh.

AFC
The last day of the AFC’s 4th Round is Tuesday, and both groups are still in play. In Group A, South Korea, Iran, and Uzbekistan are all fighting for the top two spots. South Korea currently tops the group with 14 points, Iran has 13, and Uzbekistan has 11. South Korea will play Iran and Uzbekistan will play eliminated Qatar. So that’s where it gets interesting. South Korea advances to the World Cup with any win or draw with Iran. There is also a scenario where they can lose and still advance as long as Uzbekistan does not win by at least 6 goals. However, the match is at home for the Koreans, so a win or draw should be achievable. They did lose in Iran 1-0 though.

While South Korea is sitting pretty, but Iran is less secure. With a draw, they can still be tied by Uzbekistan, which is where we start getting into goal differential numbers. They will likely be hoping for Uzbekistan to lose or draw against Qatar, but a) the game is Tashkent b) the Uzbeks already beat Qatar on the road and c) as mentioned above, Qatar is eliminated. If Iran loses to South Korea, that opens the door for Uzbekistan to clinch with a win. If Uzbekistan wins and Iran draws South Korea, then the Uzbeks need to beat Quatar by at least four goals to win the tiebreaker. Whoever winds up in 3rd place will play the 3rd place team from Group. So speaking of which…

Japan has already won Group B and Iraq has been eliminated, leaving Australia (10 points), Oman (9 points), and Jordan (7 points) in play for 2nd and third. The Socceroos cannot finish any worse than third, but they play their final game in Sydney against Iraq, so they will be looking for the clinching win. So let’s talk about Oman and Jordan for a second.

Oman and Jordan play each other, but the match is in Amman. Jordan, is the weaker side here: they are 2-1-4 with a -10 goal differential, while Oman is 2-3-2 with a -2 goal differential. Oman won their first match 2-1. That said, Oman will get at least third place with any win or draw. Jordan must have a win in any scenario to advance. If they do win, then they will place third if Australia wins or draws against Iraq, and will get second if they can make up the 14 points of goal difference between them and Australia if the Aussies lose to Iraq.

If Oman beats Jordan and Australia loses or draws against Iraq, then they will get 2nd place (and, again, advance directly to the World Cup). If they draw and Australia loses, then goal difference comes into play again. There’s 6 point of goal difference between the two sides.

If I had to make a prediction, I’d bet on South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Australia advancing, with Oman and Iran facing off in the 5th Round for the right to place a South American team for a spot in the World Cup.

CONCACAF
Both Mexico and Jamaica have Tuesday’s match day off, since that match was moved to June 4th to accommodate Mexico playing in the Confederations Cup. No one is on the hook to be eliminated yet, but Jamaica is already in trouble and Panama could really use at least a draw on the road against Costa Rica.

2014 Wold Cup Update: Selected Scenarios

One resource I’ve relied greatly upon in my World Cup pages is the listing of matchday scenarios on Wikipedia. Unfortunately, Wikipedia editors found this information and decided that no one can have nice things and shut it down. This leaves me in a bit of a lurch, but fortunately at least in some cases we’re far enough along to look at some specific scenarios for the next matchday only.

AFC
The top two teams in each group advance directly to the World Cup, while the 3rd place teams have a play-off for the Intercontinental Playoff.
Group A

  • If Iran loses to Lebanon, then South Korea or Uzbekistan can clinch a spot in the World Cup with a win over the other

 Group B

  • Japan has clinched.
  • Iraq will be eliminated if they lose to Japan and Australia or Jordan defeat the other.

CAF
Each group winner will advance to the 3rd round, where they will play a home-and-home series against another group winner.
Group A

  •  Ethiopia can clinch a spot in the 3rd Round with a win over South Africa.

Group B

  • Tunisia can clinch a spot in the 3rd Round if Sierra Leone draws with Cape Verde
  • Tunisia can also clinch with a draw and a Sierra Leon loss
  • Tunisia can also clinch with a win over Equatorial Guinea

Group C

  •  Ivory Coast can clinch with a win or draw against Tanzania

Group D

  •  Zambia can clinch with a win over Sudan and a Ghana loss to Lesotho

Group E

  •  Congo can clinch with a win or draw over Burkina Faso

Group F

  •  Nigeria can clinch with a win over Namibia and a Malawi draw or loss to Kenya

Group G

  • Egypt can clinch if Guinea loses or draws with Zimbabwe
  • Egypt can also clinch outright with a win over Mozambique

Group H

  •  Algeria can clinch with a win over Rwanda and if Mali loses or draws with Benin

Group I

  •  Togo will be eliminated if they lose to the Democratic Republic of the Congo or if Libya defeats Cameroon or if Cameroon defeats Libya
  • Congo DR will be eliminated if they lose to to Togo and Libya or Cameroon defeat the other

Group J

  • Liberia will be eliminated if they lose to Senegal

CONMEBOL

  • Argentina will qualify for the World Cup with a win over Ecuador