Category Archives: soccer

The 2015 Women’s World Cup Starts Today

I haven’t talked about this nearly enough, so here’s a quick post to kick it off. (Er, no pun intended.)

Later today, the 2015 edition of the Women’s World Cup starts, with Canada and China starting at 6:00 Eastern on FS1.

“Why should I watch?”, you may find yourself asking. Well, here are my reasons:

  • It’s more soccer! International soccer is my favorite kind of soccer, and in the international game meaningful games of any sort are rare. 
  • U-S-A! U-S-A! Unlike on the men’s side, where the US is generally thought of as scrappy underdogs trying to prove themselves against the world’s European and South American elite, in the women’s game we are the elite. While rooting for the underdog is fun, this is your chance to root for a front-runner.
  • It’s on during the day! Yes, unlike the next two men’s World Cups, this one is taking place in US timezone-friendly Canada. (Well… probably.) Games will generally start in prime time during the week, at least if you’re on the East Coast.
  • This is not a “yes, but did you explain how the women’s superior fundamentals makes up for their inability to dunk?” situation. While the women’s game isn’t as deep as the men’s (in terms of the competition), there are still a lot of good players out there who can cross and hit the through-ball as well as anyone. I watched the last World Cup and the Olympics (where the women field full-strength sides, unlike the men) and enjoyed it thoroughly.
  • Besides, do I really need to give you any more reasons to skip work again this summer and down some beers and wings? I think not.

So, yeah, get out there and enjoy some soccer.

The 2018 World Cup Begins Tomorrow

Your response to the headline may well be “huh”, to which I will say, “let me explain”.

As previously explained on this website, the World Cup technically includes both the part you watched last summer and the qualifying tournament that precedes it (hence why the former is sometimes known as the “World Cup Final”).

Starting tomorrow, 12 teams from the Asian Football Confederation will play the first of two games that, on aggregate, determines who will advance to the next round of the AFC’s qualifiers. Suffice it to say, seeing as how these are the 12 lowest ranked teams from the AFC the odds of any of them appearing in Moscow three years from is extremely slim. (Indeed, the highest ranked team, India, is ranked 171st in the world according to FIFA’s rankings.) Nonetheless, it is technically the start of the tournament. The matches below will be played March 12th and 17th, with the first home team listed first:

  • India vs. Nepal
  • Yemen vs. Pakistan
  • Timor-Leste vs. Mongolia
  • Cambodia vs. Macau
  • Chinese Taipei vs. Brunei
  • Sri Lanka vs. Bhutan

Just for fun, I’ll do the usual advancement scenarios next week, as well as preview the beginning of CONCACAF’s qualifiers later this month. Also look out for a post explaining all of 2018 World Cup qualifying, though that may have to wait because FIFA hasn’t announced how many bids each confederation will get yet (which has the knock-on effect of UEFA not announcing what their format is going to be yet). Until then!

What Does It Take to Advance At the World Cup?

Five points.

Since the current 32-team format was implemented for the 1998 World Cup, five points is dividing line between advancement and disappointment.

Some background: before the 1994 World Cup, two points were awarded for a win and one point for a draw. What happened? Well, the 1990 World Cup was basically the soccer equivalent of the 1968 baseball season: defenses were dominant and no one felt super inclined to score. To try to encourage more goals, the value for a win was increased to three points for 1994.

Since the tournament still had 24-teams in 1994, I decided to simply look at the data going back to 1998. Here are the results:

Adv % Did Not % Total
0 0 0% 10 100% 10
1 0 0% 18 100% 18
2 0 0% 7 100% 7
3 1 5.56% 17 94.44% 18
4 11 47.83% 12 52.17% 23
5 15 100% 0 0% 15
6 11 100% 0 0% 11
7 16 100% 0 0% 15
9 10 100% 0 0% 10

So the takeaway is obvious: get five and you’re golden. Of course, that still requires going undefeated. Four points is basically a gamble, especially since that’s also the only score that has come down to goal differential.

You might be wondering: who the heck got three points and advanced? Chile in 1998. After drawing all three of their group stage games, they got demolished by Brazil 4-1 in the first knockout stage.

And finally, I was going to do a full day-by-day schedule run-down for various time zones, but there’s already a better-designed website doing that for me. The only thing really lacking is TV info, but at least in the US you have a one-in-three chance of getting that right anyway (ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC).

2014 World Cup Update: 16 Playing for 8

Today and Wednesday are the last days of qualification for the World Cup finals. After that, all that remains is the draw on December 6th at 1:00 PM Eastern.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
CAF
Two games remain in the 3rd Round.

  • Ghana @ Egypt (11:00 AM): Bob Bradley and the Pharaohs face incredibly long odds down 6-1 on aggregate to Ghana.
  • Burkina Faso @ Algeria (3:15 PM): This one is close, as Burkina Faso is up 3-2 at the moment. However, the 1 goal margin means all sorts of crazy away goals rules are in play, so keep an eye out on this one.

UEFA
Four games remain in the 2nd Round.

  • Greece @ Romania (2:00 PM, espn3.com): The Greeks got an important late goal to go up 3-1 at home, but a 2-0 win at home for the Romanians will put them through thanks to away goals.
  • Iceland @ Croatia (2:15 PM, espn3.com): Iceland can properly be described as “plucky” as they attempt to become the smallest nation to ever qualify for a World Cup. They held Croatia to a 0-0 draw at home, which makes their task on the return leg that much harder, but even a 1-1 draw would do thanks to away goals.
  • Portugal @ Sweden (2:45 PM, espn3.com): Ronaldo beat Zlatan with an 82nd minute header last week. More importantly, Portugal was the side that looked like more of a team with a superstar and just a one-man show.
  • Ukraine @ France (3:00 PM, espn3.com): The Ukrainians mostly outclassed the French last week on their way to a 2-0 home win. The French have a lot of work to do to avoid missing their first World Cup since 1994.

Inter-confederation Playoffs
Both these games take place on Wednesday.

  • Mexico @ New Zealand (1:00 AM, ESPN): Mexico finally looked like Mexico last week and soundly defeated an inferior opponent at the Azteca for the first time in away. That 5-1 drubbing makes it nearly impossible for the All Whites to make consecutive trips to the World Cup for the first time ever.
  • Jordan @ Uruguay (6:00 PM, espn3.com): Uruguay also took care of business last week, winning 5-0 in Amman. The return leg should be a victory lap for La Celeste.

That’s about it.

2014 World Cup Update: Playoffs?!?

That’s right folks, in two weeks we will know who will occupy the remaining 11 spots in the 2014 World Cup Finals. Accordingly, I have updated my difficult-to-read-list of the status of all FIFA members. This table is organized by status and then date this time around. The massive image showing everyone’s route to the Finals has also been updated. (I also updated the CONCACAF and AFC guides.)

So let’s do our usual whip-around coverage thing, starting with the…

Inter-confederation playoffs

First up is Jordan vs. Uruguay. In a somewhat similar fashion to what happened in the previous World Cup cycle, Uruguay wasn’t quite good enough to qualify automatically out CONMEBOL. They shouldn’t really have any trouble with Jordan, though. The Jordanians only have one player that plays outside the Middle East, while Uruguay has guys like Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. It’s hard to see how this will be close.

Next up is Mexico vs. New Zealand. Mexico shouldn’t have much trouble here either, as many of the All-Whites play in New Zealand’s semi-pro league. But, well, Mexico shouldn’t really even be here in the first place, and the latest lame duck coach isn’t even going to call in his European based players. Can El Tri finally get it done? Again, the odds say yes, but the odds also didn’t have them needing a stoppage time goal from their archrivals to save them from not qualifying at all.

CAF

The CAF Third Round will be decided this weekend. Remember, the away goals rule is in effect. If the fixture is tied regardless, then there will be two periods of extra time followed by a shootout.

  • Ivory Coast vs. Senegal: The Ivory Coast won the first leg 3-1 at home. The return leg will actually be played in Morocco, but regardless, if Senegal scores two without allowing any, the will advance on away goals. If they win 3-0 or better, they win automatically. Any win or draw on their part obviously works in the Ivory Coast’s favor. If Senegal win 3-1, then it will go to extra time. If Senegal win 4-2, they will actually lose, as Ivory Coast would have more away goals on aggregate. (This same logic applies to pretty much everything else.)
  • Ethiopia vs. Nigeria: Nigeria won the first leg 2-1, giving them a huge advantage on the return. They should qualify.
  • Tunisia vs. Cameroon: the first leg was a 0-0 draw, putting Tunisia in the position of winning any non-scoreless draw. So, 0-0 they go to extra time, Cameroon wins they go to the World Cup, and if Tunisia wins or draws 1-1 or better, they go to the World Cup.
  • Ghana vs. Egypt: the best story in international football was obliterated 6-1 last month. Barring an utter miracle, this will be Bob Bradley’s last game as Egypt’s coach (apparently he was almost fired after the match anyway).
  • Burkina Faso vs. Algeria: Burkina Faso won the first leg at home 3-2, so Algeria has a bit of a hill to climb on the return.

UEFA

We’ll conclude with a quick preview of the UEFA playoff ties.

  • Portugal vs. Sweden: surprisingly, stadia were found that could contain both Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s egos.
  • Ukraine vs. France: the French had the misfortune of being in the same group as Spain. Presumably they won’t need a handball to get into the World Cup this time around, but the Ukrainians should be a pretty tough test in and of themselves.
  • Greece vs. Romania: I really don’t know any cracks I can make about either of these teams, so hopefully this turns out to be interesting soccer-wise. Greece was the top 2nd-place team and actually finished with a positive goal difference, so they probably have an edge here.
  • Iceland vs. Croatia: Iceland were the darlings of the UEFA qualification cycle, coming out of almost nowhere to finish 2nd in the group ahead of more established teams like Slovenia and Norway. They’ll face a better team that had a disappointing campaign in Croatia. This could be a fun one.

I’ll try to check in early next week with how everyone did. Until then!