Category Archives: OOC schedules

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

The Big Ten has a reputation as a conference of beefy linemen, and many of their schools also provide the beef in their non-conference scheduling, though after the top few it proves to be a bit lean.

  1. Nebraska (1.5 legit, 0 FCS): Brigham Young, South Alabama, @Miami, Southern Mississippi. Yes, that is the Miami in Florida, providing the Huskers with an intriguing road-trip that I am obligated to mention reminds one of the 90’s. There’s also a visit from the Stormin’ Mormons for good measure.
  2. Northwestern (1.25, 1): Stanford, Eastern Illinois, @Duke, Ball State. Stanford should provide an opening weekend barometer for both these teams. For Northwestern, it may be an early indicator if they can be a threat in the middle ranks of the Big Ten. A visit to Wallace Wade Stadium should also provide some intrigue for both sides.
  3. Michigan State (1, 0): @Western Michigan, Oregon, Air Force, Central Michigan. Michigan State isn’t the only Big Ten to have a weird away game, but considering WMU’s head coach it’s probably the more interesting of the two contests. Even though they don’t get credit for it, I also like the Air Force appearance here.
  4. Michigan (1, 0): @Utah, Oregon State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Brigham Young. If Michigan gets through this slate 4-0 in Jim Harbaugh’s initial campaign, then the Michigan hype machine will be in full force come October.
  5. Wisconsin (1, 0): N-Alabama, Miami, Troy, Hawaii. Wisconsin-Alabama is, of course, the headlining out-of-conference game of the season. Unfortunately, the rest of the schedule is nothing special (that’s the Miami in Ohio), which is why it’s only ranked fifth.
  6. Minnesota (1, 0): Texas Christian, @Colorado State, Kent State, Ohio. Indeed, it was tough to even put this schedule behind Wisconsin, as TCU+Colorado State is arguably better than just Alabama. Nonetheless, this ranking also takes into account the relative prestige of Minnesota and Wisconsin at this point.
  7. Ohio State (0.75, 0): @Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan. Urban Meyer will seek to revenge himself in Blacksburg. I am not predicting good things for the Hokies. Otherwise, this schedule is pretty thin, but Ohio State did skate into the playoff with that VPI loss and, well, it pays to be in the Big Ten sometimes. (Where “sometimes” is “most of the time”.)
  8. Purdue (0.75, 1): @Marshall, Indiana State, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green State. Purdue could be in some real trouble in the hills of West Virginia, and if that doesn’t go well for them then the rest of this schedule might not either.
  9. Maryland (0.5, 1): Richmond, Bowling Green State, South Florida, @West Virginia. Even if it’s not WVU-Pitt, I still approve of this Maryland-West Virginia game that’s been happening the pats few years.
  10. Illinois (0.5, 1): Kent State, Western Illinois, @North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State. So, remember that time Illinois fired their head coach last week? Yeah, this should be fun.
  11. Rutgers (0.25, 1): Norfolk State, Washington State, Kansas, N-Army. Rutgers just barely gets some points from Wazzou, but otherwise there’s not much here.
  12. Iowa (0.25, 1): Illinois State, @Iowa State, Pittsburgh, North Texas. Believe it or not, more milquetoast schedules exist!
  13. Pennsylvania State (0, 0): @Temple, Buffalo, San Diego State, Army. Like this one! Also, while it’s an interesting way to rekindle that rivalry, one wonders if a visit by Penn State to Temple really is more about playing in a large NFL stadium on opening weekend.
  14. Indiana (0, 1): Southern Illinois, Florida International, Western Kentucky, @Wake Forest. Given Indiana’s luck, they’ll beat Wake but lose to Western Kentucky.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

As always, the first to go with the Atlantic Coast Conference. Let’s do this. (Note: FCS teams are marked in italics.)

  1. Virginia (2.25 legit, 1 FCS): @California-Los Angeles, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State. By far the strongest non-conference schedule in college football this year. Though it’s debatable whether Notre Dame is “non-conference” for ACC teams, but that’s something we’ll think about for next year. For now, every FBS non-conference team the Cavs play is rated. Ordinarily, we’d say this doesn’t bode well for Mike London’s job, but we’ve been saying that for what feels like two or three years at this point, so it’s not entirely clear now what would actually get him fired.
  2. Georgia Tech (2, 1): Alcorn State, Tulane, @Notre Dame, Georgia. This also rates as a tough schedule, but even then it feels like a bit of a cop-out because of Notre Dame’s arrangement with the ACC and because Georgia is a yearly rivalry game. That said, this is still one of the toughest GT schedules (overall) that I can recall since I started following them in 2003, so I’d say it deserves some recognition.
  3. Clemson (1.75, 1): Wofford, Appalachian State, Notre Dame, @South Carolina. Of course, the only reason we’re not tied with Clemson is because Georgia is a 1 and South Carolina is a 0.75. If it were tied, I probably would’ve broken the tie by saying Appalachian State is better than Tulane.
  4. Pittsburgh (1.25, 1): Youngstown State, @Akron, @Iowa, Notre Dame. This year it felt like there were a lot of road legs of 2-for-1’s or 3-for-1’s with lesser FBS teams, which hopefully I’ll remember not to harp on too often. I’ll save my other joke on this schedule for the Iowa blurb.
  5. Louisville (1, 1): N-Auburn, Houston, Samford, @Kentucky. First off, good on you folks in the Commonwealth of Kentucky for moving your premier rivalry game to Thanksgiving. As for the schedule, that Louisville-Auburn game could recalibrate a lot of pre-season speculation very, very quickly.
  6. Virginia Tech (1, 1): Ohio State, Furman, @Purdue, @East Carolina. VPI-Ohio State was, in retrospect, the most baffling result of 2014. I… would not expect that again.
  7. Miami (1, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Florida Atlantic, Nebraska, @Cincinnati. Miami-Nebraska: a match up of two teams that badly wish it were the 80’s or 90’s again.
  8. Syracuse (1, 1): Rhode Island, Central Michigan, Louisiana State, @South Florida. I suggest Syracuse fans take what they can get and treat the game in Tampa as a bowl game, because that’s about as good as it’s probably going to get for them this year.
  9. Florida State (1, 1): Texas State, South Florida, Tennessee-Chattanooga, @Florida. This is usually the point in the rundown when I start running out of things to say, and this schedule is no exception. It is, however, good for a rebuilding reloading Seminole squad.
  10. Wake Forest (1, 1): Elon, @Army, Indiana, @Notre Dame. Deacons versus Priests: the ultimate showdown! (… probably not)
  11. Boston College (1, 2): Maine, Howard, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame. Two FCS teams, good job, Boston College: you now face an uphill road to bowl eligibility!
  12. North Carolina (0.75, 2): N-South Carolina, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical, Illinois, Delaware. This is the first year in a while where I can’t recall reading a swarm of article proclaiming that this will be, in fact, Carolina’s year. Which probably means they’re going to go 9-3 or something. Of course, playing two FCS teams and Illinois helps with that.
  13. Duke (0.25, 1): @Tulane, North Carolina Central, Northwestern, @Army. Army somehow got both Wake Forest and Duke at home this year, good on them! That said, I know Duke is… Duke but still, guys, you’re a Power 5 team, you can’t have two road games both against non-Power 5 teams.
  14. North Carolina State (0, 1): Troy, Eastern Kentucky, @Old Dominion, @South Alabama. Yep, ODU is full FBS this year (along with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, which I should’ve mentioned earlier). See what I said re: two road games in the above Duke blurb.

Up next: the Big Ten.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

Better late than never, it’s time once again for our review of the non-conference schedules for all of the Power 5 teams.

First, a quick explanation. Every year, my brother and I rate the attractiveness of each team in the Power 5 conferences plus a select few others on a scale from 0 to 1. I then apply these ratings to each team’s non-coference schedule. The whole thing is a subjective exercise essentially designed to judge how excited one might be for a team’s schedule, but it’s a fun overview and provides an additional preview for the kind of games we usually get in September.

Cincinnati was unrated this year, which means the only teams outside of the Power 5 with ratings are Notre Dame (1), Brigham Young (0.5), and Boise State (0.5).

I usually close the first post with a quick snapshot of each conference’s average rating, so here’s that:

  1. Southeastern (0.643)
  2. Big 12 (0.611)
  3. Pac-12 (0.521)
  4. Atlantic Coast (0.482)
  5. Big Ten (0.464)

Compared to last year, the Big 12 has closed the gap with the SEC just slightly, while the other conferences remain unchanged. Of course, I now just noticed that last year I put the ACC behind the Big Ten despite their ratings being the same. Whoops!

Either way, first up, the ACC.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

Week 5 is also a week of discovery, as lots of teams face real competition for the first time, or have a chance to show than an earlier slip-up was just that. Also, this will be the first week with “proper” previews this season, as I’m fully back from my vacation.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Tennessee @ Georgia (ESPN): It’s hard to see how the currently formed Volunteers can win this one.
  • Wyoming @ Michigan State (ESPN2): Wyoming is 3-1… but… yeah. Sparty all the way here.
  • South Florida @ Wisconsin (ESPNU): USF allowed 315 years rushing to NC State. This does not bode well for their defense against the Badgers.
  • Tulane @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Rutgers should, and I emphasize should, be able to take care of Tulane.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Kansas State (FSN): Weird things can always happen against UTEP, but this would be super weird.
  • Texas Christian @ Southern Methodist (CBSS): It doesn’t look to be getting any better for SMU’s season of utter disarray.
  • Northwestern @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): We’ll find a lot about both these teams so far. For whatever reason, James Franklin seems to have drained whatever talent and wherewithal Vanderbilt had under his tenure and transported it wholesale to State College, though. So I guess I’ll take Penn State.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (SEC): Speaking of Vandy, Kentucky should be able to get some revenge for the last few years here.

12:30:

  • Western Michigan @ Virginia Tech (ACC): VPI gets a good chance to recover here against the Broncos.
  • Colorado State @ Boston College (ACC/RSN): I’m not sure how good or bad these teams are, so I guess I’m going with BC by default.

3:30

  • Arkansas vs. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (@Arlington, TX; CBS): I saw a tweet earlier this week that Arkansas’s starting offensive line averages 328 pounds per man. Suffice it to say, they’re in the top 10 in rushing offense. However, TAMU is plenty good in rushing and is 4th in passing. What TAMU hasn’t faced so far in their very soft out-of-conference schedule is any sort of legitimate offense, either on the air or the ground, so while I think they’ll still win comfortably it will be their first test.
  • Florida State @ North Carolina State  (ABC/ESPN2): So it turns out Florida State is a much better team with their best player, huh? The Wolfpack will probably pick up their first loss here.
  • Minnesota @ Michigan (ABC/ESPN2): Boy howdy, things sure look bad up in Ann Arbor after last week’s moribund loss to Utah. (“Moribund” may still be putting it generously.) That said, at least on paper, Minnesota still has no business in this game. In their one game against legitimate competition, they lost 30-7 to TCU. This might be a low-scoring, ugly game. I’ll take the Gophers.
  • Wake Forest @ Louisville (ESPNU): Louisville.
  • Western Kentucky @ Navy (CBSS): Navy should be able to take care of business here, emphasis on the “should”.

 4:00:

  • Stanford @ Washington (FOX): Washington is 4-0, but again, hasn’t really played anyone. Again, sort of going with Stanford by default here, but my real hunch is that we’ll find out a bit about both these teams here.
  • Texas @ Kansas (FS1): I don’t care how “good” Duke is these days, losing 41-3 is not a sign of a quality football team. Longhorns should roll.
  • Temple @ Connecticut (ESPNEWS): UConn is 122nd in the country in scoring. That’s… not good. It always feels odd picking Temple, but here we are.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Auburn (SEC): Auburn.
  • Colorado @ California (Pac12): Cal, in their quest for their first Pac-12 game in… a while suffered one heck of a punch in the stomach against Arizona last weekend. With 5:21 to go, Cal lead 45-30, and then proceeding to give up 19 points, including a last weekend Hail Mary to seal the loss. Fortunately for them, they have another pretty good chance against a not terribly good Colorado team.

6:00: Cincinnati @ Ohio State (BTN): Cincy took the first two weeks of the season off, meaning that they’re 2-0 and still haven’t played out their OOC schedule. Basically, we know even less about them than all the other teams I’ve been complaining about having a lack of information on. How will they fare against their in-state big brother? I dunno. Probably not?

7:00:

  • Missouri @ South Carolina (ESPN): How do you lose to Indiana? How? South Carolina should probably be able to figure things out here.
  • Boise State @ Air Force (CBSS): I was going to give Air Force more of a chance here, but then I saw they allowed 38 points to Georgia State, so…
  • Duke @ Miami (ESPN2): This was supposed to be the Duke Johnson show for the Hurricanes. It sort of still is, as he averages over 6 yards a carry, but less than 100 yards a game. Duke, meanwhile, is firing on all cylinders offensively, but… they have played absolutely no one. Given what happened last year, I won’t be shocked if the Blue Devils win, but I’m not banking on it.
  • North Carolina @ Clemson (ESPNU): Last week was not a “Clemsonsing”, technically, as they frittered away the win against an otherwise good team, not the Marylands and Wake Forests of the world. They should be able to take care of the Tarheels, who yet again do not appear to be as good as expected.

7:30:

  • New Mexico State @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU.
  • Memphis @ Mississippi (SEC/FSN): I’m not sure I can cope with the idea that Memphis may not be a raging tire fire this year (see: solid win over MTSU, loss by 7 to UCLA), but I don’t think that will quite translate in being able to hang with Ole Miss.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (@East Rutherford, NJ; ABC): I don’t know if Notre Dame is any good or not, but I feel pretty good about saying that Syracuse isn’t.
  • Baylor @ Iowa State (FOX): Even if Iowa State’s defense wasn’t awful, well, their offense sure as hell isn’t going to be able to keep up.
  • Texas State @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): Goodness Tulsa has been awful this year. Okay, sure, you expect them to lose to Oklahoma, even if it 52-7. But getting blown out 50-21 by FAU? Oi. I think this might be the first time I’ve picked Texas State to win.
  • Washington State @ Utah (Pac12): Well, Utah will face an offense that at least has some semblance of an idea of how the pass the ball, unlike last week. Wazzou doesn’t do anything else well enough, though, but this may well be the best game in prime time, considering the rest of this slate.

9:00: Illinois @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska may be the best team in the Big Ten. (That still feels odd to type.) Illinois, not so much.

10:30:

  • Oregon State @ Southern California (ESPN): USC’s loss to Boston College still feels like a practical joke of some sort, but, well, it isn’t. Still, it’s hard to call this one for the Beavers, especially on the road. Could be some solid late-evening viewing, though.
  • Nevada @ San Jose State (CBSS): Nevada might be halfway decent, which is always a good recipe for making the Mountain West more fun. I think they’ll be able to take the Spartans.

Rating the 2014 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

And finally, the conclusion.

For all the talk about increased schedule strength in the era of the College Football Playoff, has it panned out in the first year? Let’s find out.

First, the shame list, which is the list of teams that play more than one Football Championship Subdivision and/or transitional teams: Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Vanderbilt. (Well, that’s an improvement over last year, at least.)

Next up, the list of teams that play zero FCS and/or transitional teams: Southern California, California-Los Angeles, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Pennsylvania State. That’s up from five last year, so actually so far we do have stronger looking schedules. So far.

Let’s take a look at the worst of college football’s out-of-conference schedules:

  1. Dishonorable mentions: Wake Forest (two road games?), Missouri, Mississippi State.
  2. Vanderbilt (0, 1.5): Temple, Massachusetts, Charleston Southern, Old Dominion. While I did say that this is a schedule one would expect for the Vandys of the world, that doesn’t mean it’s a good schedule by any measure.
  3. North Carolina State (0, 2): Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, @South Florida, Presbyterian. This schedule is just plain awful. Two transitional teams and a normal FCS team? It boggles the mind, really. Luckily for NC State (otherwise I’m sure they wouldn’t have done this) those games do count for bowl eligibility. 

 Let’s wash that out with an overview of the best schedules in the land.

  1. Florida State (3, 1): N-Oklahoma State, Citadel, Notre Dame, Florida. This is a pretty epic out-of-conference schedule, folks. Florida State can run this gauntlet, then they will definitely have an argument to be in the title game with a loss.
  2. Clemson (2, 1): @Georgia, South Carolina State, Georgia State, South Carolina. This looks pretty good until you remember one of the games is a yearly rivalry, but still if Clemson can win either or both of those games it will be a platform they can build on for this season.
  3. Georgia (1.75, 1): Clemson, Troy, Charleston Southern, Georgia Tech. The luster is starting to fade a little bit here, since Georgia Tech only gets a 0.75 rating because A5 and I are biased.
  4. Honorable mentions: Miami (1.25), Northwestern (1.25), Michigan State (for playing Oregon), Oregon (for playing Michigan State), Texas (for playing BYU and UCLA), and UCLA (for playing Texas). While I’m at it, I guess that means I also need to throw in Wisconsin, LSU, and Nebraska.

Overall, compared to last year maybe it’s not that bad? But then again, we do have numbers. Here’s the ranking of each conference’s out-of-conference schedules:

  1. ACC (0.207)
  2. Big Ten (0.203)
  3. Pac-12 (0.188)
  4. Big 12 (0.183)
  5. SEC (0.147)

All these numbers are up from last year. So maybe there is hope for the future of out-of-conference scheduling. Which is good. As might be obvious by the fact I do this every year, I find these schedules an unique and interesting part of the college football. Some noise was made this past off-season about some coaches wanting to do away with these games, under the guise of getting rid of the “body-bag” games against FCS foes. The FCS issue isn’t that simple, though. While I prefer that teams not play FCS teams, is it really feasible to get rid of all those games entirely? I’m not favor of that if the proposed solution of “play one conference games” is adopted, that’s for sure.

Either way, the previews for the first weekend of the season will be up soon. It’s almost time!