Category Archives: OOC schedules

Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: Pac-12

Okay, moving on to the West Coast, let’s talk the Pac-12.

  1. Stanford (1 legit, 0 FCS): N-Rice, @San Diego State, Notre Dame. This was a tough decision. I have, elsewhere, docked teams for having a team that they play every year, but as you can see from going down the list there’s just not much here this year for the Pac-12. Also, San Diego State should be pretty good again this year, and Rice is still technically better than a FCS school.
  2. Oregon (1, 1): Southern Utah, Nebraska, @Wyoming. Still, though, you could consider the Ducks tied for first. A good inter-sectional game and a road trip to Laramie? I’m down.
  3. California (1, 1): @North Carolina, Weber State, Mississippi. You could even make an argument for Cal, which has the only schedule with two other Power 5 teams on. But then you consider that, well, it’s Cal and you start thinking about their defense that is likely to remain a raging inferno this year (not in a good way).
  4. California-Los Angeles (0.75, 0): Texas A&M, Hawaii, @Memphis. I guess we’re just going to have to get used to these wacky road games, because even considering the vagaries of scheduling other FBS teams these days why in the world would UCLA ever go cross-country to play Memphis?
  5. Southern California (0.75, 1): Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, @Texas Christian. USC usually is the team here with a tough OOC schedule, but instead this year I guess they decided to see if they could go 3-0 against the state of Texas. At least it’s thematic!
  6. Washington State (0.5, 1): Montana State, Boise State, Nevada. If the past two years have taught us anything, Wazzou could very well go 2-1 against this slate in just about any possible combination.
  7. Arizona (0.25, 1): Northern Arizona, Houston, @Texas-El Paso. Both ‘zonas figure to be miserable this year, and the misery could get ramped up real quick-like for the Bearcats. Depending on this shakes out, it could be a race to see which of their coaches makes it out of September.
  8. Oregon State (0.25, 1): @Colorado State, Portland State, Minnesota. I could try to pretend that I don’t know the result of that Oregon State-Colorado State game, but I don’t think it was really that much of a surprise, and it’s hard to take anything away from it as this is still the rebuild phase for the Beavers. That said, the rest of this schedule may not help.
  9. Arizona State (0, 0): New Mexico State, San Diego State, @Texas Tech. Folks have tried to set Arizona State-Texas Tech as a sort of “who’s gonna get fired?” Bowl, 2017 edition, and maybe that’s the case, but the real test for the Sun Devils might be the San Diego State game. That, and Todd Graham isn’t exactly known for letting the situation get to him before he gets out of the situation…
  10. Utah (0, 1): North Dakota, @Brigham Young, San Jose State. The Holy War is back on the schedule, so that’s good. The rest of it? Eh.
  11. Washington (0, 1): @Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State. We’re still scratching our heads at the “@Rutgers” part there, especially since it’s not going to do UDub any favors if they’re on the edge of the playoffs.
  12. Colorado (0, 1): N-Colorado State, Texas State, Northern Colorado. I keep having to remember that Texas State is FBS now and it’s been several years since that happened. Ask me about trying to remember which conference Maryland is in some time…

All right, we’re trying to truck though these to finish before the season proper starts, so expect the SEC right on the heels of this one!

    Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: Big 12

    Okay, Big 12, you’re up!

    1. Texas (1 legit, 0 FCS): Maryland, San Jose State, @Southern California. This is a fun schedule. You’ve got a Maryland team that won’t be good or anything this year, an increasingly plucky San Jose State, and then we go party like it’s 2005. Sounds good to me.
    2. Oklahoma (1, 0): Texas-El Paso, @Ohio State, Tulane. Well, when your conference only plays 3 OOC games, outliers like having an Ohio State on your schedule count for a lot.
    3. West Virginia (0.75, 1): N-Virginia Tech, East Carolina, Delaware State. I already ragged on the game against VPI being in an NFL stadium, so instead let’s focus on, uh, well I don’t think ECU is supposed to be good this year. Also every time I look up and down this list WVU being here just still seems strange. Can the Big 12 and SEC arrange like a Mizzou-WVU swap? I think that’d work better for everyone.
    4. Texas Tech (0.75, 1): Eastern Washington, Arizona State, @Houston. I’ve gone to the “hey Eastern Washington has a red field!” well too many times, and they lead off with these three in the first four weeks, so it’s likely Kliff Kingsbury will still have a job at the end, so I can’t use that either. Houston could (should?) still be good enough this year to make it interesting, so maybe “likely” is a bit too strong there.
    5. Oklahoma State (0.5, 0): Tulsa, @South Alabama, @Pittsburgh. Huh, scheduling two out-of-conference road games out of three is definitely a thing you can do, but it’s not something you see too often. They do get 5 home conference games this year, but it’s still odd.
    6. Iowa State (0.5, 1): Northern Iowa, Iowa, @Akron. I think the Cyclones will go 3-0 or 0-3 against this slate, setting the tone for the rest of their season. After all, they did lose to UNI last year, and if you can lose to your in-state FCS rival, then you can definitely lose on the road to a MAC team.
    7. Baylor (0.25, 1): Liberty, Texas-San Antonio, @Duke. This is certainly a schedule.
    8. Kansas State (0, 1): Central Arkansas, Charlotte, @Vanderbilt. Depending on how feisty Vandy is this year, this may give K-State some trouble, but this slate should be no trouble. Also, as far as I know this marks the beginning of a stretch that will see none of my extended relations playing for the best football team in the Little Apple. I imagine things will be back to normal in 15 years or so.
    9. Kansas (0, 1): Southeast Missouri State, Central Michigan, @Ohio. Most of what you need to know about Kansas football is that they’ll be doing well to go 2-1 against this slate. If they somehow go 3-0, it will be the first time KU has won 3 games in a season since 2009.
    10. Texas Christian (0, 1): Jackson State, @Arkansas State, Southern Methodist. Between games at Houston, South Alabama, and Akron it’s like the Big 12 is trying to do its best ACC impersonation. But they still can’t come close to the champs.

    Up next, we head over to everyone’s favorite mostly-west-of-the-Rockies conference, the Pac-12! See you then.

      Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

      Onward, to the Land of Meat and Cheese, aka, the Midwest!

      1. Michigan (1 legit, 0 FCS): N-Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force. The netural-site game against Florida is intriguing for reasons probably best saved for when we get to the Gators, so for now let’s wonder why we didn’t get a 10th anniversary Michigan-Appalachian State matchup. They’re not even FCS anymore!
      2. Ohio State (1, 0): Oklahoma, Army, Nevada-Las Vegas. The return game for Ohio State-Oklahoma almost got the Buckeyes to #1 here, but I liked Michigan’s other opponents better.
      3. Nebraska (1, 0): Arkansas State, @Oregon, Northern Illinois. Nebraska at Oregon is precisely the kind of inter-sectional matchup we like here at asimsports. More of this, please!
      4. Maryland (1, 1): @Texas, Towson, Central Florida. Okay, Maryland-Texas lacks some of the, well, cachet of Nebraska-Oregon, but we’ll still take it.
      5. Michigan State (1, 0): Bowling Green State, Western Michigan, Notre Dame. “Wait”, you’re saying, “why is Sparty ranked below Maryland even though they don’t play an FCS team?” This was a call on my part, knowing that Michigan State plays Notre Dame basically every year, so it’s not as interesting as Maryland’s game at Texas.
      6. Purdue (0.75, 0): N-Louisville, Ohio, @Missouri. There’s new management in West Lafeyette, but that doesn’t figure to help against the Cardinals. The Boilermakers are in Year 1 of a rebuild and are half-liable to go 0-3 against this slate.
      7. Rutgers (0.75, 1): Washington, Eastern Michigan, Morgan State. Rutgers was probably one of the worst major conference teams in the history of college football last year, and starting the year off with a game against UDub doesn’t figure to help them get pointed in the correct direction. Kudos for scheduling it, though.
      8. Pennsylvania State (0.5, 0): Akron, Pittsburgh, Georgia State. Penn State should play Pitt every year, which makes any time it does happen special. Not much else going on here, though.
      9. Northwestern (0.25, 0): Nevada, @Duke, Bowling Green State. I feel like there’s something snarky to say about Northwestern at Duke, but I can’t think of it right now. Luckily, I’ve got a few weeks before they actually play.
      10. Minnesota (0, 0): Buffalo, @Oregon State, Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota at Oregon State seems random, but again, we’ll take it.
      11. Wisconsin (0, 0): Utah State, Florida Atlantic, @Brigham Young. It was a real debate between whether to put Minnesota or Wisconsin at #10, but ultimately BYU suffers again for not being in the Pac-12, which you know has to annoy them.
      12. Indiana (0, 0): @Virginia, Florida International, Georgia Southern. But if it’s any consolation BYU fans, you still managed to get ranked above a schedule that includes a trip to a major conference team.
      13. Illinois (0, 0): Ball State, Western Kentucky, @South Florida. Illinois will do well to win two of these, or heck maybe one depending if this is one of those years Ball State isn’t horrible.
      14. Iowa (0, 0): Wyoming, @Iowa State, North Texas. Everything that you need to know about modern day Iowa football is by far the most interesting NFL prospect on their out-of-conference schedule is Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, which is also something you can tell your friends to sound really smart, especially if Wyoming wins.

      And that’s that. Up next, the conference of the land Americans love to argue about whether or is the Midwest, the Big 12!

        Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

        Let’s start off our review with the Atlantic Coast Conference. An explanation of the rating system can be found here. FCS teams are indicated by italics. “N-” prefixes indicate neutral site games.

        1. Florida State (2 legit, 1 FCS): N-Alabama, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware State, @Florida. The ACC will get off to a crackin’ start on Labor Day weekend, and it’s not a coincidence the two teams that will play in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium are at the top of this list. (Which reminds me: is there a funny name out there for the new Dome? In Dallas there’s Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace, so what would the Atlanta equivalent be? Arthur Blank’s Pan-Universal Fun Dome? I’m open to suggestions.) Of course, don’t let the realization that it’s entirely possibly FSU and Bama will meet again, probable even, in the college football playoff. Especially not that they could meet in the very same stadium again.
        2. Georgia Tech (1.75, 1): N-Tennessee, Jacksonville State, @Central Florida, Georgia. Us Tech-types have been aching for years to get into the party that takes place every Labor Day weekend a mile from campus, so the the chance to make it four straight against the SEC East is just gravy. Meanwhile, I’m as against it as anyone else, but I will at least note that when you see major conference teams play games at Group of Five stadiums it’s usually as part of a multi-game deal or the major conference team is saving money. Hopefully I remember this when the return game comes around in 2020.
        3. Pittsburgh (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Pennsylvania State, Oklahoma State, Rice. This is an OOC schedule that checks all the boxes. 1) Does it involve a non-mandatory rivalry? Check. 2) Does it feature a geographically distant major-conference foe? Check.
        4. Clemson (1, 1): Kent State, Auburn, Citadel, @South Carolina. Clemson’s fate this season has vastly more to do with their in-conference games with Florida State and Louisville, but nonetheless the return game of this Tigers-Tigers series is rife with implication, provided Auburn is any good. Also, it gives us something to look forward to in the desert that usually is Week 2.
        5. Boston College (1, 0): @Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, @Connecticut. Okay, one road game against a G5 opponent I can understand, but how do you manage to get two on the schedule at once? Nonetheless, the Golden Eagles get credit for ducking a FCS opponent this year, depending on how you feel about UConn. (Which for most, I suspect, is nothing.)
        6. Syracuse (1, 1): Central Connecticut State, Middle Tennessee State, Central Michigan, @Louisiana State. So this year I switched the spreadsheet to a system that allowed the “legit” points to be grabbed from another sheet and automatically calculated. There were some occasional mistakes, but this is a good example of one I didn’t catch until I was putting the rankings together. “Yeah, let’s see, FCS, MTSU, Central Mich… oh right, LSU, yeah that should probably rate higher than 13th.”
        7. North Carolina State (1, 1): N-South Carolina, Marshall, Furman, @Notre Dame. It’s hard to know what to do with Notre Dame on an ACC team’s schedule these days, since it’s not really an organic matchup. So that’s how you get a game at LSU counting better than a game at Notre Dame and a neutral site game against South Carolina.
        8. Miami (1, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Arkansas State, Toledo, Notre Dame. Miami continues its tour of random G5 campuses, this team flying to… whereever you fly to get to Jonesboro, Arkansas. Memphis, I guess? Anyway, I decided to stay consistent with my earlier assessment of the Notre Dame thing.
        9. North Carolina (1, 1): California, @Old Dominion, Notre Dame, Western Carolina. Okay, seriously, what is up ACC teams? Did everyone get together at Media Days a few years ago and decide “yes, let’s schedule all of our road games against non-major opponents in the same season“? That’s four out of nine so far!
        10. Wake Forest (1, 1): Presbyterian, Utah State, @Appalachian State, @Notre Dame. 5 out of 10!
        11. Duke (0.5, 1): North Carolina Central, Northwestern, Baylor, @Army. 6 out of 11!
        12. Virginia (0.5, 1): William & Mary, Indiana, Connecticut, @Boise State. 7 out of 12!
        13. Virginia Tech (0.5, 1): N-West Virginia, Delaware, @East Carolina, Old Dominion. 8 out of 13!
        14. Louisville (0, 1): N-Purdue, Kent State, Murray State, @Kentucky. Nine out of… oh, right, Kentucky’s in the SEC.

        Click below to see my closing thoughts.


        In the hopes you don’t see 9-14 as a cop out, here’s some serious commentary:

        • That Cal game is all about the return trip. 
        • Hot take: Wake will either got 4-0 against that slate or 1-3, with no in between.
        • The @Army game seriously isn’t some sort of Mike Krzyzewksi thing, right?
        • If I were a UVA fan I’d be seriously worried about going 0-4 against that slate. Oof.
        • asimsports wholeheartedly endorses non-conference games against West Virginia, but, uh, anywhere but NFL stadiums, and especially anywhere but Fedex Field.
        • Okay, so the Kentucky joke was a bit of a cheap shot, especially considering who won last year. Playing a neutral site game against, uh, Purdue is, um, interesting?

        Speaking of the Boilermakers, they’re up next!

          Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

          And we’re back!

          Let’s start with the usual explanation. Since 2008, each summer, my brother and I surveil all of the Power 5 teams and selected Group of 5 teams and assign each a “legit” rating. This rating is on a scale of 0 to 1 in increments of .25. The rating system is extremely subjective: a third party reading would probably reveal our biases. However, we don’t declare the work done until we assign a rating for 72 different teams and agree on it. An explanation of the ratings:

          • 0: these are generally teams that aren’t and haven’t been very historically good, or otherwise do not generate any excitement when you see them on your non-conference schedule. Examples include Iowa State and Rutgers. This year 24 of the rated teams earned zeroes. It’s worth noting we didn’t use this rating until 2012. Last year 19 teams were rated at this level.
          • 0.25: these are teams that might generate some excitement if you’re college football geek, or we think they may be interesting this year. Examples this year include Washington State and Minnesota. We rated 10 teams at 0.25 this year, down from 11 last year.
          • 0.5: This is the passing lane of ratings, featuring either teams on an upswing (like Pittsburgh and Utah) or teams on a downswing (like Mississippi and Michigan State). Boise State also appears here, as our highest rated Group of 5 team. 10 teams were also rated at this level, down from 14 last year.
          • 0.75: this is usually the domain of power conference teams that have stagnated that are still interesting, or teams that we’d probably like to see play but feel like would be underrated by the community at large. Teams of this stripe include Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Full disclosure: this is also where we put Georgia Tech, because as noted above these ratings are subjective. We also rated 10 teams at 0.75 this year, up from 7 last year.
          • 1: These are the blue-bloods impervious to changes, or teams that have been really good to national title contenders over the past 10 years or so. Essentially, this is Notre Dame: it doesn’t matter if they went 4-8 last year, they’re still a 1 because they’re Notre freakin’ Dame. There were 18 of them this year, down from 21 last year.

          As usual, we list all the teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, California-Los Angeles, Clemson, Florida, Florida State,  Georgia, Louisiana State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, and Texas. The teams in bold have been 1’s every year we’ve done the rankings. Yes, even Notre Dame got pipped from the 1’s one time, pulling a 0.75 in 2012, but I don’t think what I wrote above is a contradiction.

          Other than Notre Dame, the other non-Power 5 teams to earn ratings this year were Boise State (0.5) and Houston (0.25). The average overall rating was 0.4583.

          With that, let’s close with the rating of each conference:

          1. Southeastern: 0.536
          2. Pac-12: 0.521
          3. Atlantic Coast: 0.482
          4. Big 12: 0.472
          5. Big Ten: 0.429

          I guess we don’t go in for gray skies and the Iowas of the world. At any rate, the first up will be the home of the defending national champions and the banes of the SEC East: the ACC.