Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2021 Non-Conference Slate

All right, let’s do this. The format is as such:

  1. Team Name (“Legit” points, Number of FCS teams played): List of teams, with FCS teams in italics. Commentary.

Ready? Let’s go.

ACC

  1. Georgia Tech (2, 1): Northern Illinois, Kennesaw State, @Notre Dame, Georgia. Admittedly a bit of bias here, but both options here had Notre Dame and a traditional rival, so I gave credit to the team that has to go to South Bend.
  2. Florida State (2,1): Notre Dame, Jacksonville State, Massachusetts, @Florida. It’s still hard to figure out how to give ACC teams credit for Notre Dame. Perhaps from next year on I’ll treat it as a conference game and just leave it at that.
  3. Virginia Tech (1.5, 1): Middle Tennessee State, @West Virginia, Richmond, Notre Dame. I’m not sure if the Hokies consider their mountain brethren a rival or not, but the trip to Morgantown definitely is the highlight here. The last time the Hokies went over there was a 34-17 win back in 2005, but the ‘Neers lead the all-time series 28-23-1.
  4. Miami (1.5, 1): N-Alabama, Appalachian State, Michigan State, Central Connecticut. Alabama will be de-emphasizing the neutral site openers in the near future, but in the meantime this will be the latest ritual sacrifice.
  5. Louisville (1.25, 1): N-Mississippi, Eastern Kentucky, Central Florida, Kentucky. Louisville-Ole Miss would be fun except for the fact that the Cardinals are probably going to be very, very, bad this year. They might only beat EKU on this slate, and even then…
  6. Clemson (1, 1): N-Georgia, South Carolina State, Connecticut, @South Carolina. Clemson-Georgia is obviously the highlight of this whole deal, but we have save some content for Week 1.
  7. Virginia (1, 1): William & Mary, Illinois, @Brigham Young, Notre Dame. UVA will take a trip out to Provo, whom the Woos hired Bronco Mendenhall from. There’s also a game against Illinois in here, which gives you the ability to say that you scheduled a Big Ten team without having to be concerned about the outcome.
  8. North Carolina (1, 1): Georgia State, @Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Wofford. Yes, that is in fact a non-conference game against Wake Forest. Why? Because under the ACC’s current structure, the two long-time rivals hardly ever play each other in conference play.
  9. Wake Forest (0.75, 1): Old Dominion, Norfolk State, @Army, @North Carolina. I talked about the North Carolina thing above. The Demon Deacons will also head up the Hudson, the first time a Power 5 team has played in Michie Stadium since 2017. Duke won that game, 21-16.
  10. Pittsburgh (0.5, 1): Massachusetts, @Tennessee, Western Michigan, New Hampshire. Pitt going to Knoxville may not be the actual Backyard Brawl, but feels similar in spirit.
  11. North Carolina State (0.25, 1): South Florida, @Mississippi State, Furman, Louisiana Tech. Well, if the is going to be the year the Wolfpack ever break out, this is a schedule that’d let them do it.
  12. Boston College (0, 1): Colgate, @Massachusetts, @Temple, Missouri. I don’t know about having two OOC road games in a season, but I guess the jaunt to either Hadley, MA or Philadelphia isn’t really that far in the Northeast. Also in researching this I discovered UMass’s home stadium is named after a real-life Coach McGuirk, which amused me. Well, amused might be a bit strong since the first names aren’t remotely similar, but, anyway.
  13. Duke (0, 1): @Charlotte, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, Kansas. Ordinarily, when a FBS team deigns to play a lesser in-state opponent on the road as part of a 3-for-1 type of deal, it’s a fair bet that it’s a convenient draw that will attract plenty of the big school’s fans. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that’s not going to be the case for Duke. That said, they managed to balance that with visits from two other teams that are nominally in the Power 5, and they even stand a fair shot of beating one of them!
  14. Syracuse (0, 1): @Ohio, Rutgers, Albany, Liberty. Yeah, these are definitely teams you can choose to play. Hopefully they don’t lose to Liberty.

Big Ten

  1. Ohio State (1, 0): Oregon, Tulsa, Akron. The Buckeyes definitely have one of the premier matchups of the non-conference season, and there’s still a requisite two guaranteed FBS wins here too. Not bad.
  2. Michigan (1, 0): Western Michigan, Washington, Northern Illinois. Well, if it were still the early/mid-90’s that Michigan-Washington matchup would be all rage, but alas for these fanbases, it’s not,
  3. Wisconsin (1, 0): Eastern Michigan, N-Notre Dame, Army. Notre Dame is always fun, but I always give Big Ten teams much less credit (though not as much less as ACC teams) because it feels like they have a traditional rivalry with every team in the conference.
  4. Purdue (1, 0): Oregon State, @Connecticut, @Notre Dame. Pac-12 team at home? Okay, cool, that’s pretty nice Purdue. But going to Storrs, CT on purpose? Not sure about that one.
  5. Nebraska (1, 1): Buffalo, @Oklahoma, Southeastern Louisiana. While everyone at OU was apparently so mad about the scheduling of their revived rivalry with Nebraska that they left the conference, Nebraska is perhaps reconsidering the more-than-likely loss.
  6. Pennsylvania State (1, 1): Ball State, Auburn, Villanova. I think everyone in the college football universe is agreeing that 2020 was an outlier for the Nittany Lions and that the Penn State-Auburn game in Happy Valley will be fun. Right? … right?
  7. Michigan State (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Miami, Western Kentucky. Sparty goes on the road to Miami to see which team will be more disappointing this year!
  8. Indiana (0.75, 1): Idaho, Cincinnati, @Western Kentucky. This Indiana-Cincy game is going to be lit. It’s a no-win situation for the Hoosiers, though. Either they win and preserve the dream of #9Windiana or they give the Bearcats the prestige win they need.
  9. Illinois (0.5, 0): Texas-San Antonio, @Virginia, Charlotte. Well, they’ll probably win two of these games. Maybe.
  10. Iowa (0.5, 0): @Iowa State, Kent State, Colorado State. Kirk Ferentz is apparently so unkillable that even going 0-3 against this slate wouldn’t do it. That’s not likely, of course, but that dude’s been there a long time.
  11. Maryland (0.5, 1): West Virginia, Howard, Kent State. Maryland-WVU, again, not the backyard brawl, but it could be fun.
  12. Minnesota (0.25, 0): Miami (OH), @Colorado, Bowling Green. Can’t say I’m really feeling it thinking about Minnesota-Colorado. I hope I’m wrong.
  13. Rutgers (0, 1): Temple, @Syracuse, Delaware. Not sure I’m prepared for “bowl eligible Rutgers”, but it could happen this year folks.
  14. Northwestern (0, 1): Indiana State, @Duke, Ohio. Northwestern is taking no chances with this schedule.

Big 12

  1. Oklahoma (0.5, 1): @Tulane, Western Carolina, Nebraska. So the Big 12 as a whole isn’t super exciting, but at least we’ll see the renewal of a classic rivalry.
  2. Oklahoma State (0.5, 1): Missouri State, Tulsa, @Boise State. Going on the road to Boise is spicy, hence how OSU ended up up here.
  3. West Virginia (0.5, 1): @Maryland, Long Island, Virginia Tech. WVU playing Maryland and Virginia Tech mostly just makes it stand out all the more how much we all miss the Backyard Brawl. I’m looking forward to putting Pitt in here next year.
  4. Kansas State (0.5, 1): N-Stanford, Southern Illinois, Nevada. Maybe the right question isn’t “why are K-State and Stanford, of all teams, playing a neutral site opener?” but instead, and bear with me here…. why not?
  5. Texas Tech (0.5, 1): N-Houston, Stephen F. Austin, Florida International. No, seriously, why though. Texas Tech-Houston makes sense, and they might even be conference mates in the near future!
  6. Iowa State (0.5, 1): Northern Iowa, Iowa, @Nevada-Las Vegas. Not much to write about here, but Iowa game does slot them ahead of the bottom four teams, and even though they’ll win easily they do get to play in a big time stadium in Vegas.
  7. Texas (0, 0): Louisiana, @Arkansas, Rice. Texas is getting an early start on an SEC road game I guess. Plus, with regards to Texas and Rice, I can dust this post off again. (Also, the sharpest edge on this schedule could well be the Ragin’ Cajuns. I think it feels pretty Texas for all of the offseason power move stuff that’s happened and then to lose to Louisiana.)
  8. Texas Christian (0, 1): Duquesne, California, Southern Methodist. Okay, I like that TCU is playing Cal and their cross-town rival. It’s not flashy, but I can get behind this schedule.
  9. Baylor (0, 1): @Texas State, Brigham Young, Texas Southern. 
  10. Kansas (0, 1): South Dakota, @Coastal Carolina, @Duke. The KU-Duke game could well be most competitive game either team plays all year.

Pac-12

  1. Colorado (1.25, 1): Northern Colorado, Texas A&M, Minnesota. This might be a kinda brutal schedule for the Buffs, but hey, kudos for getting both of your P5 opponents to come to you in the same season.
  2. Oregon (1, 1): Fresno State, @Ohio State, Stony Brook. I might be looking way too forward to the Oregon-Ohio State game. I mean, the expectation is that the Ducks get flattened, especially in Columbus, but hey, you never know.
  3. California-Los Angeles (1, 0): Hawaii, Louisiana State, Fresno State. LSU fans in LA, it’s happening folks.
  4. Washington (1, 1): Montana, @Michigan, Arkansas State. Well, I already talked about UDub and Michigan trying to turn the clock back to the early 90’s. Would wearing flannel in Ann Arbor even be that retro? I honestly don’t know.
  5. Stanford (1, 0): N-Kansas State, @Vanderbilt, Notre Dame. 3 P5 and P5-adjacent teams, and only a 1 for that traditional rivalry game against Notre Dame. Well, you tried Stanford.
  6. Southern California (1, 0): San Jose State, @Notre Dame, Brigham Young. Note to self: check if San Jose State is going to be any good this year before writing the Week 1 preview.
  7. California (0.5, 1): Nevada, @Texas Christian, Sacramento State. Note to self: maybe the same for Cal.
  8. Oregon State (0.25, 1): @Purdue, Hawaii, Idaho. Oregon State-Purdue could be more fun than it might otherwise appear (emphasis on the could).
  9. Arizona (0, 1): N-Brigham Young, San Diego State, Northern Arizona. So BYU is playing 5 Pac-12 teams this year, which I think pretty much makes then a Pac-12 member? I mean, that’s how many games Notre Dame has to play against the ACC this year.
  10. Utah (0, 1): Weber State, @Brigham Young, @San Diego State. Utah even plays two of the same three teams Arizona does! Also, fun fact, SDSU is building a new stadium in San Diego, so this year they’re going to play… in LA. Well, Carson technically, but yeah. Have fun with that Aztec fans!
  11. Arizona State (0, 1): Southern Utah, Nevada-Las Vegas, @Brigham Young. Not much to see here, move along.
  12. Washington State (0, 1): Utah State, Portland State, Brigham Young. Maybe the less said about Wazzu the better. You used to fun and weird, Wazzu. Now you’re just kinda dumb.

SEC

  1. Georgia (1.5, 1): N-Clemson, Alabama-Birmingham, Charleston Southern, @Georgia Tech. Georga-Clemson, the Week 1 game to end all week 1 games. Otherwise, well, not many other chances UGA is going to suffer an out-of-conference derailment. But we can, and do, always hope.
  2. Auburn (1, 1): Akron, Alabama State, @Pennsylvania State, Georgia State. I would submit that “LSU in Pasadena” is still the funnier juxtaposition of “SEC fanbase and faraway road game”, but Auburn going up to Happy Valley isn’t too far off.
  3. Arkansas (1, 1): Rice, Texas, Georgia Southern, Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It’s a race to the bottom in the SEC this year between Arkansas and South Carolina, and there could well be two losses on this for the Hogs.
  4. Louisiana State (1, 1): @California-Los Angeles, McNeese State, Central Michigan, Louisiana-Monroe. Oh hey, LSU is playing one of the other in-state FBS Louisiana schools. Huh. I mean, they’re not playing the good one, but still.
  5. Alabama (1, 1): N-Miami, Mercer, Southern Mississippi, New Mexico State. I remember the halcyon days of the pre-Saban era when Alabama did things like “lose to Southern Miss”. But here’s the thing, non-Bama football fans, it can, and will, happen again. Saban won’t live forever, and name a situation where following up a coach of his stature worked out for the guy following him. Heck, even at Bama it took them 35 years in the wilderness to go from the Bear to Saban, doing things like “losing to Southern Miss” and “hiring 3 guys named Mike”. History is not destiny.
  6. South Carolina (1, 1): Eastern Illinois, @East Carolina, Troy, Clemson. Oh man. Oooh man. The Gamecocks could – not implausibly – go 0-4 against this slate, though 2-2 is a lot more likely.
  7. Florida (1, 1): Florida Atlantic, @South Florida, Samford, Florida State. There wasn’t a FBS school in Florida you could schedule, Gators? But as usual, the non-conference slate won’t take them out of the state, and USF isn’t good enough (well, or just “good” in generally really) to make that trip to Tampa worrisome.
  8. Mississippi State (0.5, 1): Louisiana Tech, North Carolina State, @Memphis, Tennessee State. Will still continue to posit that Memphis is the largest city in Mississippi, despite what “geography” and “the Census Bureau” say. Change my mind.
  9. Vanderbilt (0.5, 1): East Tennessee State, @Colorado State, Stanford, Connecticut. Vandy’s bad, but not “close to Colorado State and UConn” bad. Plus, it should be more comfortable in Colorado Springs than Nashville.
  10. Texas A&M (0.25, 1): Kent State, @Colorado, New Mexico, Prairie View A&M. This is definitely a slate of games the Aggies can play, though they do get their own refreshing trip to the Rockies I suppose.
  11. Mississippi (0.25, 1): N-Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane, Liberty. Lane, all I ask is that you put up like 10 touchdowns on Hugh Freeze. That’s all I need.
  12. Kentucky (0.25, 1): Louisiana-Monroe, Tennessee-Chattanooga, New Mexico State, @Louisville. Three nothing teams and an in-state rival, yep, it’s an out-of-conference SEC schedule all right.
  13. Tennessee (0, 1): Bowling Green, Pittsburgh, Tennessee Tech, South Alabama. I’m talking myself into the idea that Tenn-Pitt could be fun, and I’m not sure why I’m doing that. But it could be!
  14. Missouri (0, 1): Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri State, @Boston College, North Texas. In my draft, I had apparently accidentally typed “Kentucky” here, providing yet another moment of “oh, right, Mizzou is in the SEC”. Seriously though y’all, just call up the Jayhawks and get on with it. And yes, I know it’s on the schedule for 2025, but that’s not 2021.

Rating the 2021 Non-Conference Slate: Intro

It is time.

That’s right folks, we’re cranking up the ol’ college football machine once again here at ASimSports. I couldn’t be happier to bring you a real, full season that actually has, well, non-conference play!

So here’s the skinny on how this works. My intrepid brother (whom I am unsure as to when he actually last watched a college football game from start to finish) and I rate every Power 5 team by how “legit” they are. This is extremely objective! But it’s fun and it gives you an idea of how excited the average college football might be to play say, oh, Wisconsin. We rate them on a scale of 0 to 1 in .25 increments. (Why not out of 4, which would be just like GPAs in college? I don’t know, I just realized that. Maybe we’ll change it for next year.) Generally speaking, 0’s are the Rutgers of the world, and 1’s are the Alabamas, Ohio States, and what have you.

This season we rated 21 teams as an 1. They were: Alabama, Auburn, California-Los Angeles, Clemson, Florida, Florida, State, Georgia, Louisiana State, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pennsylvania State, Southern California, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, and Wisconsin.

We also do rate some non-P5 teams. Such teams that earned a rating for 2021 were: Central Florida (0.75), Cincinnati (0.75), Houston (0.5), and Boise State (0.5).

How do the Power 5 conferences rate, on average? Glad you asked!

  1. SEC (0.518)
  2. Pac-12 (0.5)
  3. Big 12 (0.5)
  4. Big Ten (0.446)
  5. ACC (0.429)

So the SEC finishes on top, as expected. I was surprised how well the Pac-12 did, but there’s a few solid programs and traditional powers out west, and perhaps the geography helps make them seem more exotic. (Let’s ignore that I live in California for a minute.)

So! Over the next week or so, well, hopefully for the season starts at any rate, we’ll lay it all out. Onward!

Bowl Games 2020: Epilogue

Well, I was pretty off about how the course of the game would go. Naturally, I had a meeting during the first hour of the game, which was about the amount of time that it was a competitive game. Alas.

For my bowl predictions this season, I went 0.500 (13-13), which took my lifetime percentage down from 55.4% to 54.9%.

Otherwise, I’m not sure what else to say. I hope we have something approaching a normal 2021 college football season. If I don’t post any other updates to the site before then, well, stay healthy and safe and I’ll see you in August.

Bowl Games 2020: Final

As usual, all times eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 11

8:00: Alabama vs. Ohio State (CFP Championship Game @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): There are no shortage of variables going into this game. Ohio State is very, very good, but they don’t have the body of work. I mean that in two ways, and I’m not necessarily docking them credit if they do win because they didn’t play enough games. I mean it purely from an analysis perspective. How do we weigh factors like them them running roughshod over Clemson but looking pedestrian against certain other Big Ten teams? What is the extent of Justin Fields’s injury? The latter could be key in the run game if Alabama doesn’t think he’s a credible run threat. That said, he also was presumably no longer a credible run threat in the Clemson game after taking the hit, but that didn’t seem to slow the Ohio State offense down, especially in the second half. But that said, I’m here to just pick winners and losers. I suspect many thing this will be a blowout in Bama’s favor, as though that feels inevitable. I don’t think so. I’m optimistic this will still be a close game that will definitely see the Buckeyes with a chance to win at the end. But… I will still go with the majority in that I don’t think they’ll quite get there. So perhaps if I were a betting guy, I’d go with Ohio State to cover but Bama to win.
SP+ line:  Alabama by 4.3
Vegas line: Bama -8
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just four all time. The first was in 1978, a 35-6 Alabama win in the Sugar Bowl. The only regular season meeting was the Kick-Off Classic in the Meadowlands at the start of the 1986 season, and Bama won that one 16-10. For the 1994-95 season, they met in the Citrus Bowl, and Alabama won 24-17. And finally, their most recent meeting was the only Ohio State victory so far in the series, a 42-35 win in the 2014-15 Sugar Bowl that took the Buckeyes to the national title game in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Last bowl game: Alabama defeated Notre Dame 31-14 in the “Rose” Bowl. Ohio State defeated Clemson 49-28 in the Sugar Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Maria Taylor, Allison Williams

Bowl Games 2020: Happy New Year!

The page is updated, and 2020 is almost over. Thank goodness.

Thursday, December 31

12:00: Tulsa vs. Mississippi State (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): This one is mostly a high watchability tier because Tulsa should put on a display in terms of shutting down a 3-7 Miss State team. I have the Golden Hurricane all the way here.
SP+ line: Tulsa by 6.9
Vegas line: Tulsa -2.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Tulsa’s last bowl game was the 2016 Miami Beach Bowl, where they beat Central Michigan 55-10. And thanks to 2020 rules, 3-7 Miss State will be heading to their eleventh straight bowl game. The streak started with a 52-14 win over Michigan in the 2010-11 Gator Bowl, and last season they lost 38-28 to Louisville in the Music City Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Cotter, Mark Herzlich, Ian Fitzsimmons

2:00: San Jose State vs. Ball State (Arizona Bowl @ Tuscon, AZ; CBS): We’ve got a battle of champions here! And it could be good! But you’ll also have overlap between the earlier game and the later game, and this one may lose out. Plus, I like San Jose to cover here. The Spartans just flat out won the Mountain West this year and while their success seems a bit out-of-nowhere, they definitely earned it.
SP+ line: SJSU by 6
Vegas line: SJSU -7
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: For the Spartans, this is their first bowl game since the 2015 Cure Bowl, where they beat Georgia State 27-16. For Ball State, this is their eighth bowl appearance all-time, with the most recent being a 23-20 loss to Arkansas State in the 2013-14 GoDaddy.com Bowl.
Announcers: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jamie Erdahl

4:00: West Virginia vs. Army (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ESPN): Look down at the announcers. It’s cool, I can wait. Okay, now that you’re back, I AM SO PSYCHED. Former Voice of the Yellow Jackets Wes Durham will be on the call, along with former Yellow Jacket Roddy Jones! Talk about a perfect duo to call some flexbone offense. I am here for this. So… the awkward part is that West Virginia is a touchdown favorite even by the advance metrics. And I’m here to say, look, Army probably wanted to play in a bowl game this year more than any team not in the playoff, and maybe more than one or two of those teams. I think they will show up ready, while West Virginia will not. Against an option team, this is deadly.
SP+ line: WVU by 6.8
Vegas line: WVU -7
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Three, and they were all a long time ago. Army won the first two meetings in 1941 and 1946, 7-6 and 19-0 respectively. The last meeting was in 1961, where WVU won 7-3.
Last bowl game: West Virginia’s last bowl appearance was the 2018 Camping World Bowl, where they lost 34-18 to Syracuse. Army’s last bowl appearance was the 2018 Armed Forces Bowl, a 70-14 rout of Houston.
Announcers: Wes Durham, Roddy Jones, Eric Wood

Friday, January 1

12:00: Cincinnati vs. Georgia (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Hoping this is more like Georgia’s game against Texas two years ago rather than their game against Baylor last year. Cincy’s certainly got the defense to pull this off, and I don’t buy this business about UGA’s offense suddenly being competent. I’m taking Cincy straight-up here.
SP+ line: Cincinnati by 1.4
Vegas line: UGA -7
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just one, in 1976. Georgia won 31-17.
Last bowl game: Cincy’s made three straight bowl games. In 2018 they beat Virginia Tech 35-31 in the Military Bowl, and last season they beat Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. For Georgia, this is their 24th straight bowl game, dating back to the 1997-98 Outback Bowl, where they beat Wisconsin 33-6. Last season they beat Baylor 26-14 in the Sugar Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Dusty Dvoracek, Kris Budden

1:00: Northwestern vs. Auburn (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): This is certainly a bowl game that will probably happen. Auburn did finally do the thing and Fire Gus, but in the end they wound up making a sensible hire, so that’s not even that funny. That said, it’s not like Harsin will be coaching this game, and let’s see who will be on the sidelines for the Tigers instead…ah right, it’s the guy who tried to start a coup, Kevin Steele. Wonder how he feels about not getting the big job? I’ll take Northwestern to come out ready to play and to hold on to win.
SP+ line: Auburn by 0.7
Vegas line: NU -3.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Just one, a 38-35 Northwestern victory in the 2009-10 Outback Bowl.
Last bowl game: Northwestern’s last bowl game was the 2018 Holiday Bowl, a 31-20 win over Utah. Auburn’s been to seven straight bowls, going back to the a 34-31 loss to Florida State in the 2013-14 BCS Championship Game. Last season they lost 34-24 to Minnesota in the Outback Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Rod Gilmore, Paul Carcaterra

4:00: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (Rose? Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): This is just wrong, but apparently the city of Pasadena is getting $2 millions for the use of the Rose Bowl name, so I more power to them I guess. That said, I don’t have a lot of reason to think this will be anything other than a dominant Alabama victory. Thanks for playing, Irish.
SP+ line: Bama by 13.3
Vegas line: Bama – 19.95
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Seven. The first was in the 1973 Sugar Bowl, a 24-23 Notre Dame win. They met a few times in the regular seasdon in the 80’s, and you probably already know about their most recent meeting, a 42-14 Alabama win in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game. Notre Dame holds an overall 7-2 advantage in the series, though.
Last bowl game: In 2004, Alabama lost 20-16 to Minnesota in the Music City Bowl, a return of sorts after improving to 6-6 from 4-9. They’ve gone to the postseason every year since then. Last season, they didn’t make a New Year’s Six bowl, but beat Michigan 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl anyway. The Irish have been to four straight bowl games, dating to the 2017-18 Citrus Bowl, where they beat LSU 21-17. Last season they beat Iowa State 33-9 in the Camping World Bowl.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Todd Blackledge, Todd McShay, Allison Williams

8:00: Clemson vs. Ohio State (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I think Clemson will win, but I am tired of hearing so far in bowl games about how Ohio State hasn’t played enough games and blah-blah-blah. So I essentially hope this is (yet again) the best bowl game of the season and it entirely proves the Buckeyes deserve to be here.
SP+ line: Clemson by 1.8
Vegas line: Clemson -7.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These two have played each a few times recently. Their first meeting was a 17-15 win Clemson back in the 1978 Gator Bowl. The previous three have all also been Clemson wins, most recently 29-23 in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, you know, last season’s playoff semi-final. Clemson therefore has a 4-0 overall series lead.
Last bowl game: Clemson beat Colorado 19-10 in the 2005 Champs Sports Bowl, and including that they’ve been to bowl games in 16 straight seasons. Last season, they beat Ohio State 29-23 in the Fiesta Bowl and then were felled by LSU 42-25 in the CFP Championship Game. Ohio State has been to eight consecutive postseasons, dating to a 40-35 loss to… Clemson in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl. And as previously stated, they lost 29-23 to Clemson in last year’s excellent Fiesta Bowl. Let’s hope this is more of the same.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Maria Taylor, Tom Rinaldi

Saturday, January 2

12:00: North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN): This game exists purely to hold you over until the fireworks start at the bottom of the hour. I have NC State here.
SP+ line: NCSU by 4.3
Vegas line: UK -3
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one, a 1970 27-2 win for NC State.
Last bowl game: The Wolfpack were last seen in the postseason as participants in the 2018 TaxSlayer Bowl, where they lost 52-13 to Texas A&M. Kentucky have been to five straight bowl games, starting with a 33-18 loss to Georgia Tech in the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl (woo). Last season they beat Virginia Tech 37-30 in the Belk Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Tom Luginbill, Lericia Harris

12:30: Indiana vs. Mississippi (Outback Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ABC):  HERE WE GO. Indiana is a fun team that, while missing their all-time great QB, is still fun to watch and pretty good. Ole Miss, meanwhile, runs what I am calling the “YOLO Offense” because their playcalling is essentially “eh, screw it, throw it deep”. And it seems to work! This game should have all the points. Well, hopefully. That said, Indiana actually plays a little defense, so I think the Hoosiers will get a spot and pull out a win.
SP+ line: Indiana by 7.2
Vegas line: Indiana -7
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Indiana’s making their second consecutive bowl season, after last season’s narrow loss to Tennessee in the Gator Bowl, 23-22. Ole Miss is appearing in their first bowl game since the 2015-16 Sugar Bowl, where they beat Oklahoma State 48-20.
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic

4:00: Oregon vs. Iowa State (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): Iowa State has had an all-time great season by their standards, and I think they’ll carry that all the way through to a victory.
SP+ line: Iowa State by 2.9
Vegas line: Iowa State -4.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This will be the fourth straight bowl appearance for the Ducks, dating to a 38-28 loss to Boise State in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl. Last season, they beat Wisconsin on a perfect day in Pasadena, 28-27. The Cyclones have now been to four straight bowls, dating to a 21-20 win over Memphis in the 2017 Liberty Bowl. Last season they lost 33-9 to Notre Dame in the Camping World Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Mike Golic, Quint Kessenich

8:00: North Carolina vs. Texas A&M (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): And finally, what will probably be the last bowl game before the title game. And boy howdy I hope Carolina wins, because the TAMU whining after not getting in the playoff was awful. That’s not a great basis for prognostication, but it’s what I’ve got.
SP+ line: UNC by 2.5
Vegas line: TAMU -6
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: UNC won last year’s Military Bowl 55-13 over Temple. TAMU has been to 12 straight bowl games, dating to the 2009 Independence Bowl, a 44-20 loss to Georgia. Last season they beat Oklahoma State 24-21 in the Texas Bowl.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Dan Orlovsky, Katie George