Once again, the BCS standings are out and I’ve done my first bowl predictions of the season. Since this is the first week, I’ll do a conference-by-conference breakdown of how I predict the bowls. After this, I’ll just hit the high points.

Here’s the direct link. Just open it up in another window and read the below as you go through the table.

Since it sets up everything else, I select the BCS teams first.

• For the title game, I usually just pick the teams in the 1st and 2nd spots in that week’s BCS standings unless I really, really think either of them will lose in the near future. At the moment, I have little reason to think either Texas or Alabama will lose.
• The BCS slots conference champions into certain games. (Details are available on the bowls page.) Since the Fiesta and Sugar will lose their conference champions, they get first pick from the remaining auto-qualifiers and at-large teams. Though they went there last year, I am slotting Oklahoma into the Fiesta. They are a natural geographic fit and will auto-qualify if they win out. The Sugar goes next, and will probably take some sort of SEC team. The problem is picking which one. Here’s the problem: the loser of the SEC Title Game will probably have 2, if not 3, losses. Say Florida wins the SEC East, for instance by winning out. This gives Georgia its second loss, but that will occur next week, giving them plenty of time to recover in the polls. If Alabama goes to the national title game, they will have to win the SEC, and in doing so will hand UF another loss, this time right before the BCS is selected. This puts Georgia and/or LSU in great position to recover – which makes this Saturday’s game that much more important. I am, for now, projecting LSU to win that game and lock up a Sugar Bowl bid (provided they then lose to Alabama but otherwise win out).
• The remaining conference champion auto-bids are slotted: VPI to the Orange, and Penn State and USC to the Rose. The Big East champion does not have an auto-bid and so is at the mercy of the remaining at-large selections.
• At this point, there are two remaining auto-qualifiers (say, Pittsburgh and Utah) and 3 slots. The remaining bowls pick in reverse of when they are played, so the latest bowl goes first. This year, the order is 1) Fiesta 2) Sugar 3) Orange. Of course, with 3 remaining slots this means we need a BCS at-large team. Since each conference cannot have more than 2 teams in the BCS, this means that the SEC and the Big 12 cannot send another team to the BCS. So now any team in the top 14 of the standings with 9 wins can take a slot, and a well-traveling team that will probably be 10-2 and in the top 14 at the end of the year will be Ohio State. (If Penn State loses to OSU this weekend, just swap them here.) Next up is the Sugar, which will be stuck with what are, traditionally, the two least attractive auto-qualifiers – a mid-major and the Big East champion. Really Pitt and Utah could go either way here, but generally mid-majors have been picked last. At least they won’t play each other this time around.

So, here’s how the ACC breaks down:

• I made a myraid of assumptions regarding the rest of the way for the ACC. There’s too many to list here, but it mostly involves VPI winning out, and NC State losing out.
• I am projecting a rematch of last year’s ACC Title game, with BC losing again. Since the game is in Tampa this year, there should be less concern about a team going to Jacksonville twice. Once again, though, the “Peach” has the #2 pick of ACC teams and has what is probably their worst nightmare. I am projecting an optimistic win for GT, so they will have to pick from a small fanbase from the northeast that doesn’t travel or a small fanbase from the South that doesn’t travel well. (GT may actually travel “worse” from the Peach’s persepctive because most Atlanta-based alums don’t need hotel rooms.) While Tech has traditionally not performed well in Peach Bowls (I believe we are 0-3) I’m projecting us to go there anyway. (I selfishly generally want GT to go to the Music City or Peach since those are the closest available bowls when I’m at home for Christmas, but I digress.) Long story short, due to the ACC selection rules BC goes to the Gator.
• Not so fast, though! The Gator gets its pick of the Big East, Big 12, or Notre Dame. If ND is bowl eligible I would bet they will go early this year. Since BC plays ND during the regular season, I am swapping GT and BC.
• If my projections hold, Wake will go 6-2 in conference and earn a bid to the Champs Sports.
• Now we get to the ACC 5/6/7 portion of this show, and I predict Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida State will all have 4-4 conference records. Withouth a naturally close bowl or decent traveling fanbase, Virginia gets exiled to San Francisco, and UNC makes an appearance in the Car Care Bowl and FSU makes a repeat appearance in the Music City Bowl.
• This leaves 6-6 Miami and Maryland. Neither will travel well to Boise, but there is a bowl game in Washington, DC this year, so I’ll send Miami to Boise and UMD to the new EagleBank Bowl to play Navy.

Big 12:

• As explained above, I’m putting Texas and Oklahoma in the BCS. On a side note, let me just say I didn’t project nearly as much as I did for the BCS and ACC.
• Quickly, I put Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the Cotton and Holiday Bowls. Yes, folks, the Big 12 South is back.
• Missouri earns a trip to San Antonio and Kansas reclaims the Big 12’s spot in the Sun Bowl this year, unless Notre Dame falls this far. (They probably won’t, though.)
• This leaves the last 3 teams from the Big 12 North likely to go at least 6-6: Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State. K-State’s schedule the rest of the way is brutal and they will need to pull a huge upset to get 2 more wins. So, the winner of Colorado-Nebraska will probably go to the Insight Bowl, with the loser going to Shreveport.
• This also happens to leave me a team short for the Texas Bowl, unless something drastic happens (like ND dropping to the Sun with the Gator opting to take a Big East team). More on this later.

And now, the Big East:

• This is not a conference I like to think about. With lots of non-conference games, it’s hard to say where they will finish in the pecking order, and most of their bowls are terrible. Anyway, I projected Pitt to go to the BCS.
• Since the Gator will probably take a bowl eligible Notre Dame and the Sun will take a Big 12 team, this leaves the 2nd place Big East team to float down to the Car Care Bowl. This is probably South Florida’s spot to lose.
• Let me reiterate that is is really hard to project a conference finish when the teams have hardly played each other. Like WVU is 2-0 in the Big East, but they played what are, by far, the two worst teams in the conference this year. Yet to most of us WVU has shown us nothing so far this year other than that Bill Stewart doesn’t seem terribly competent. So just for the heck of it I am sending Cincinatti to Toronto.
• This leaves UConn, WVU, and Lousiville as the likely other bowl eligible teams. I’ll send them to St. Pete, Birmingham, and the at-large pool respectively.

Big Ten:

• This conference is such a cluster**** that outside of Penn State and Ohio State it’s nearly impossible to guess at this point who will beat whom. Minnesota and Northwestern are both 6-1, for crying out loud!
• Michigan State seems like the 3rd best team in the league, so let’s get them into the Capital One Bowl posthaste.
• From here on out I am basically guessing because I am not really prepared to deal with a reality where Minnesota and Northwestern have 8 or 9 wins. Their game against each other will be really pivitol to their bowl position. I’ll say UMN beats NU, so they go to the Outback and Alamo Bowls, respectively.
• Even though they have yet to play other, Iowa and Illinois are the best bets to go at least 6-6 from the remaining teams, unless Wisconsin shows it can beat two other teams this year (I am assuming a win over Cal Poly).
• This leaves the Big Ten without a team for the Motor City Bowl.

And now we come to Conference USA, with its shiny set of 6 bids this year:

• Tulsa will probably challenge Utah for the mid-major bid this year, but Utah has momentum at the moment. But if they lose Tulsa and Boise are waiting in the wings. For now, I’ll slot Tulsa into the Liberty.
• So, of course, every other C-USA team has 3 losses. The conference has been the main beneficiary of the new bowls the NCAA keeps adding, though. so they need to fill spots.
• I actually think Rice has a shot of going at least 7-5, and Houston as well. (Or 8-4 for one, 6-6 for the other, depends on who wins their game.) The problem is, I have no idea who else in this conference could go 6-6. I guess Memphis could, so I’ll send them to New Orleans. Otherwise, if things go the way they’re going C-USA will be two teams short.

The MAC:

• Provided they run the table, and maybe even if they don’t, Ball State can look forward to an at-large opponent up in Detroit.
• After this, things get muddy. The MAC could really benefit from the other conferences’ inability to field enough teams this year. Western and Central Michigan should qualify. Additional possibilites include Northern Illinois and Akron (and perhaps more, depending on how things shake out). For now, I’ll slot the directional Michigans into the remaining MAC bids and keep NIU and Akron on stand-by.

The MWC:

• The Mountain West is home to Utah, TCU, and BYU. If the Utes run the table they will probably be rewarded with a BCS bid.
• Generally, contracts involving mid-major conferences don’t really specify the place of the team, just the bowl pecking order. Sometimes bowls will trade amongst themselves to increase their attendance. For instance, it would not surprise me if TCU ends up in their own stadium for the Armed Forces Bowl no matter what, but for the time being I’ll send them to Vegas.
• This allows BYU to go to San Diego.
• Air Force should be at least 7-5 and this end up in the aplty named Armed Forces Bowl. Where they went last year. (More reason for them to switch with TCU, I guess.)
• New Mexico has a decent shot to get the 6-6 mark and play in, you guessed it, the New Mexico Bowl. Which is just fine by them. I doubt the MWC will produce any other 6-6 teams.

Pacific-10:

• The Pac-10 will only send 1 team to the BCS this year unless USC sneaks back into the national title game, and even then no other Pac-10 team may be ranked high enough for the Rose to pick them.
• Right now, 3 Pac-10 teams sit at 3-1: the two Oregon schools and perhaps the most improved team outside of Minnesota, Arizona. Of course, none of them have played each other yet. Based on history and bias alone, I’m going with Oregon, followed by Arizona, and then State.
• From here, 3 more teams could possibly qualify: Cal, UCLA, and Stanford. I don’t really see UCLA winning 3 more games, and Stanford has to beat Washington (doable) and Cal (somewhat less doable) to get to 6-6 without any major upsets. So I’m going with that for now because it makes my life easier.
• This leaves the Poinsettia Bowl without a team.

Southeastern Conference:

• I’m getting tired so let’s make this quick. I already put Alabama and LSU into the BCS.
• This leaves the runner-up from the SEC East, probably Georgia or Florida. Let’s say it’s Florida and stick them in the Capital One and send UGA to the Peach.
• The problem now is who to send to the Outback and Cotton. There is a huge drop-off in prestige and/or bowl attractiveness after these first four. I generally like sending SEC West teams to the Cotton but I don’t see any of the remaning SEC West teams finishing better than 6-6 unless Auburn stops sucking. So this leaves Vandy, South Carolina, or Kentucky. For now, I’ll send USCe to the Cotton and Kentucky to the Outback.
• This lets Vandy conviently fall to the Music City, and for now, Auburn to the Liberty.
• This leaves us with two additional bowls to fill and a cast of very unlikely teams to make them: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Miss State, and Tennessee all need at least 3 more wins to get to 6-6. For now, I think the most likely candidate is Miss State, but mostly likely is they will all beat each other up and none will make it.
• This leaves an opening for the papajohns.com bowl.

Sun Belt:

• Troy had better win the damn thing this year, that’s all I really have to say about that.
• This year, the Sun Belt has agreements with the St. Petersburg, Papajohns.com, and Independence Bowls to provide backup teams. Which is good, since the first two won’t have a team from C-USA or the SEC. For now, I’m predicting Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette to go at least 6-6 to fufill this criteria. If the Sun Belt can get some other 6-6 teams, they will probably go to bowls as well.

And finally, the WAC:

• Boise State will probably win it this year, and if they don’t make the BCS my guess is they will stay home in Boise (though there’s precedent for them going elsewhere off a strong year, like if they want a nice, tropical vacation, for instance).
• Next, San Jose State and Fresno State will fight over who goes to Hawaii or New Mexico. Either way, they should fufill the WAC’s two remaining autobids. I’m sending Fresno to Hawaii so SJSU avoids a rematch with Stanford.
• I need just 1 more 6-6 or better team at this point so we don’t end up with a lack of bowl eligible teams. Who will prevail? At 4-3, Nevada needs only 2 more wins and with Hawaii and Louisiana Tech on the schedule they could definitely get it. Hawaii itself could also win 3 or 4 more games, which would get them a Hawaii Bowl bid and likely kick San Jose to the at-large world. For now, I think Navada has the path of least resistance. But like the MAC, the WAC could do pretty well for themselves this winter.

So this leaves us with 4 bowls without teams: Poinsettia, Motor City, Texas, and Armed Forces. The 4 teams I have to spare are Louisville, NIU, Akron, and Nevada. I like Nevada to stay on the West Coast, so I’ll put them in San Diego. Since another MAC team can’t go to Detroit, this leaves Louisville. And I think you can take it from here.

Anyway, that does it for week 1! Join me next week, as hopefully things will clear up just a little.

While possibly referring to Georgia Tech’s 2007 campaign, I’m mainly writing this to point out that my prediction contest with my brother will end in a tie, since we’ve both picked 10 games correctly and we’ve picked the same teams from here on out. Ah well.

Game predictions will be up in the next couple of weeks. I switched to the Kansas-in predictions when it became apparent they would be selected for whatever reason. Anyway, they’re up now.

I don’t have time to do a full, conference-by-conference breakdown. However, I will say that I’ve given up hope of logic, reason, and human decency prevailing in the case of Georgia Tech’s bowl berth. Boise, here we come!

Anyway, with all the shenanigans that happened today, even who will be in the BCS title game is hard to see. For the time being, I think we’re all LSU fans. From what I have been told, LSU should pass Georgia in most of the computer polls, which means that they need only to pass UGA in one of the human polls. Both sets of my predictions assume this will occur.

Yes, that’s right, “both”. See, the biggest BCS question now is this: what if Kansas finishes 3rd or 4th? By BCS rules, this means they gain an automatic bid to a BCS Game. Hawaii will almost certainly finish 12th or higher, meaning they are also an auto-qualifier. By my count, the following teams will more than likely earn automatic berths: Ohio State (BCS #1), LSU (BCS #2), Virginia Tech (ACC champion), West Virginia (Big East champ), USC (Pac-10 champ), Oklahoma (Big 12 champ), Hawaii (WAC champ, finished 12th or higher), Georgia (finished 3rd or 4th in the BCS). If Kansas is also in this group, it really affects the Sugar and Fiesta bowls because the Fiesta really wants Arizona State but with the Orange likely to select West Virginia ahead of them they will have to take Hawaii, unless they really want a Kansas-Oklahoma bout (which I doubt). This sends Kansas to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia.

So, I produced two versions: one where Kansas makes it, and another where they, well, don’t.

So there’s what I’ll hang my hat on. The BCS standings will be announced at 8:00 EST on FOX. I may update the projections based on projected BCS standings, but that mostly depends on how many normal bowl bids are announced between now and 8:00 EST later today.

UPDATE (12/2, 3:40): Kansas has dropped to 8th in the AP and Coaches’ polls, which means they are almost certainly out. As pointed out by the anonymous commenter below, this also means the Gator will pick before the Cotton does. I have updated the predictions accordingly.

UPDATE (12/2, 6:44): TCU has been selected to the Texas Bowl, implying that the Big 12 will send two teams to the BCS. Looks like my Kansas-oriented predictions shouldn’t be thrown away quite yet…

This is the last week before the major conference bids are finalized, so I’ll walk through every conference picture like I did for Week 1. Look for a post later on Tech’s coaching changes and the ACC/Big Ten challenge, which got underway tonight.

So let’s do this.

BCS:
There are two major scenarios for the BCS to worry about at this point: Missouri wins the Big 12 or Oklahoma wins the Big 12. Personally, I think the latter is actually slightly more likely but I went with the Tigers anyway. Recall the selection order this year (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar) and let’s get under way:

• BCS Championship Game: Missouri vs. West Virginia: This is the simpler scenario. If Mizzou loses (or, less likely, WVU loses, or God forbid, both lose) then the Rose has to find a replacement for the Buckeyes. I honestly don’t know who that’d be unless Illinois sneaks into the top 14 this weekend.
• Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia: A rematch of last year’s Peach Bowl, but this is somewhat unavoidable. I like VPI to win their rematch against Boston College, but it doesn’t change that the ACC winner will go here. The Orange would love to have a SEC team as an at-large pick, and UGA will automatically qualify since they will finish in the top 4. (Bastards.)
• Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs. Arizona State: Kansas will probably rise again slightly, and luckily for them Texas lost last week or else they’d be a shoe-in for at-large selection. Provided Arizona State takes care of business this weekend, the Fiesta would love to have the Sun Devils here.
• Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Hawaii: LSU goes here provided they beat Tennessee, otherwise the Vols do. Hawaii goes here because they are unlikely to fall out of the top 12 now (being #12 this week), which means they automatically qualify. I doubt any of the BCS bowls want them, though, so the Sugar gets stuck with them since they pick last.
• Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Southern Cal: Meanwhile, barring another upset this weekend, the Rose gets what it wanted all along.

The main question here is, if Virginia Tech loses to Boston College, will they still get an at-large berth? Probably not, unless there’s more upsets or other such shenanigans. And alas, poor Florida, which will probably be stuck on the outside looking in unless the Fiesta really wants them or something.

ACC:
The first to bat for the ACC is the Peach. I like them to take the conference runner-up this year. According to their selection blog, BC, UVA, and VPI are their prime targets. Neither the Boston College or Virginia fan bases travel particularly well, and both will be coming off a loss. I still like the Eagles here, though.

Next up is the Gator. I like them to take Clemson’s energized fan base, coming off a big win over their in-state rival. Following the Gator is the Champs Sports, where Virginia makes a soft landing. These could easily end up the other way around.

Now we get to the ACC 5/6/7 cluster: the Music City, Car Care, and Emerald Bowls. All ACC fans know the first two are more desirable, seeing as how they’re played on this side of the country. There are essentially 3 teams competing for these spots: Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Wake Forest. The Car Care has made it known they prefer North Carolina teams, so Wake seems like a shoe-in even with their tiny fan base. Somewhere along the line (not sure where), it was decided FSU fans were suddenly awesome and traveled well and they seem to be the front runner for the Music City. This leaves Georgia Tech for the Emerald.

Or so you think! At least, according to the AJC, which claims that 6-6 Maryland could pass Tech and go to the Emerald. I claim that they are a) wrong, and b) very wrong, despite the quote from the Emerald Bowl guy, who must also be wrong. The NCAA Postseason Handbook makes one thing exceedingly clear. Here’s a quote:

Per NCAA Bylaw 30.9.2.1 an institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game if 1) the institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game.
[…]
In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning
records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests.

I have no idea how the Emerald could not be aware of this, since not only is a rule, they say it twice just to make sure. But then again, they think it’s a great idea to have a bowl game in a baseball stadium, so what do I know? (Hey, if 6-6 teams can be selected ahead of 7-5 teams, why can’t Alabama go to the Music City Bowl any more? This makes no freakin’ sense.)

Anyway, provided there is any sanity or fairness in this world, Maryland will head to Boise.

Big East:
This is easy. Provided West Virginia doesn’t screw up, they’re in the national title game. The Big East has no specific slot in the BCS so no bowl there gets to replace them.

Well, that part was, at least. Turns out the Gator and Sun Bowls have a confusing (and stupid) agreement to swap picks every once in awhile. Turns out, the Gator has to take 2 Big 12 teams over the next 3 years, so if they don’t do it this year they have to do it each of the next two. Apparently there is also a clause that enables the Gator to select before the Cotton if the Big 12 only qualifies one team for the Big 12, but I don’t think that’ll happen this year (though Kansas may get shafted if Oklahoma wins).

This wouldn’t be that big of a deal, but since Notre Dame is part of the Big East’s bowl package, the Gator probably doesn’t want to be guaranteed to lose on that for the next two years. So they’ll pick a Big 12 team, which I’ll get to in a minute. Meanwhile, the Sun gets the first Big East selection after the BCS, and I like a hot Cincinnati team to get the nod.

Next up is the Car Care Bowl, where I think South Florida will land, followed by the International Bowl. Connecticut is closest and hot, so I like them to go there, relegating Rutgers to the Papajohns.com Bowl. There’s an outside shot Louisville make 6-6 if they beat Rutgers this weekend, but even if they do I don’t think it’s likely they get selected to anything.

Big Ten:
The Big Ten is completely done and had 10 of its 11 teams qualified for bowls. It’s mainly waiting to see if Illinois will make the BCS or not. Even if they do, I don’t think they’ll be selected unless Ohio State goes to the title game, sending the Illini to the Rose.

So anyway, first go after that is the Capital One Bowl, where Illinois will probably end up, as a sort of feel-good story. Also, I think Florida will end up there, which will be great for TV coverage (Zook Goes Against School that Spurned Him, etc.). After that, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State will all be competing for the Outback, Alamo, and Champs Sports bowls. I like the schools to go in that order.

The last two Big Ten bowls are the Insight and Music City Bowls. Coming out of the 7-5 morass will probably be Indiana (feel-good story), and Michigan State (fans) in that order, leaving 7-5 Purdue in the cold, not to mention 6-6 Iowa and Northwestern.

Big 12:
Provided Missouri wins Saturday, they will go the BCS title game, which means the Fiesta has first shot of the remaining teams qualified for the BCS. I think they’ll take Kansas, so that’s the scenario I’ll use.

This sends Oklahoma to the Cotton and Texas to the Holiday, but the picture gets murkier after that as the Big 12 descends into a series of unexciting 7-5 and 6-6 teams. Sitting pretty is 8-4 Texas Tech, sending them to the Alamo. Since the Sun took a Big East team, the Gator gets the next pick and goes with Texas A&M in the hopes of getting Notre Dame in the next two years. Oklahoma State and Colorado are both 6-6 and fill out the Insight and Independence Bowls. This leaves the Texas Bowl to its own devices, which I’ll get to in a minute.

Conference USA:
This hasn’t been a great year for C-USA, which hasn’t looked so hot since they were raided by the Big East a couple years ago. Central Florida is its best team, and South Florida wiped the floor with them earlier this year. Anyway, UCF will probably win the title game against Tulsa and head to the Liberty Bowl.

It gets murkier after that, since minor bowls (more than anyone else) are apt to take geographically close teams in order to increase the chances of anyone actually attending the game. The GMAC will probably opt for the runner-up this year, though, which will be Central Florida. The Papajohns.com Bowl and the New Orleans bowls have already announced they will take Southern Miss and Memphis. This leaves 7-5 East Carolina to head out to Hawaii. Also, the Texas Bowl has announced they’ll take hometown Houston.

Independents:
Navy has already accepted a bid to the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. (Try saying that three times fast.) Notre Dame, with a 3-9 record and the worst offense in college football, will not be attending a bowl this year, which saves them the trouble of going to some destination and losing for the 10th straight time.

MAC:
The MAC has three bids, and to the relief of everyone running a bowl, will only have 3 teams with 7-5 records or better. I would imagine the Motor City would love to have the winner of the title game, which should probably be Central Michigan. This sends Miami (OH) to the GMAC Bowl and Ball State to the International.

Mountain West:
The Mountain West gets 4 bids, which I’m only partially sure of the order of. Provided I’m right, BYU has clinched the MWC title and will head to Las Vegas, Utah will head to the Poinsettia, and New Mexico will head to…New Mexico. Air Force has already accepted a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.

Pac-10:
Yes, I know there is a scenario that could occur were UCLA qualifies for the Rose Bowl, and I hope that it does not come to pass. Provided sanity prevails (knock on wood), USC and ASU should make BCS games to their logical destinations.

I am pretty sure that bowl officials have noticed that Oregon really, really, really sucks without Dennis Dixon, and this will hurt them quite severely come selection time. Provided Oregon State beats them (and since they got shut out by UCLA, I don’t see why they won’t), OSU will get the Holiday Bowl spot. Cal logically then goes to the Sun, provided they win the Big Game this weekend, which means Oregon crash lands into the Las Vegas Bowl and puts a (hopefully) 6-6 UCLA in the Emerald. This leaves the Pac-10 unable to fulfill its obligation to the Armed Forces Bowl.

SEC:
Much like the Big Ten, the SEC qualifies 10 teams this year. Unlike the Big Ten, the SEC is assured of putting two teams in the BCS.

Florida will be an attractive selection for the Capital One, especially if it also gets Illinois. Now we hit the infamous SEC 3/4/5 cluster of the Peach, Outback, and Cotton Bowls. The latter two are supposed to get their picks of the SEC West and East first. So I see Tennessee landing in the Outback and Arkansas (yes, Arkansas) heading to the Cotton, which their fans will love (since it reminds them of the good ole SWC days). The Peach will be perfectly happy taking Auburn at this point.

This is followed by the Music City and Liberty Bowls. Since Kentucky went to the Music City last year, I see them going to the Liberty and therefore sending Mississippi State to Nashville. The Independence gets its pick of 6-6 teams: Alabama or South Carolina. I could see them going either way, but for now I’m putting ‘Bama.

Sun Belt:
Provided Troy takes care of business against Florida Atlantic, it will be the Sun Belt champion and thus earn a bid in the New Orleans Bowl. Fun fact about Troy: they have outscored their Sun Belt opponents by a combined 155 points.

WAC:
Last, but not least, is the WAC. Hawaii will probably qualify for the BCS. Of the 3 WAC bowl berths, two of them exist pretty much to provide their top teams with a well-attended game: the Humanitarian Bowl and the Hawaii Bowl. Boise State will go to the former, but now the latter needs a team, and so does the New Mexico Bowl. I like Fresno State to go the former, and the winner of the Nevada-Louisiana Tech game to the latter.

At-large bids:
This all leaves two bowls without a team: the Texas and Armed Forces Bowl. TCU and Purdue should/will finish 7-5, and thus according to the NCAA Postseason Handbook must be picked before any available 6-6 teams. Since TCU is in the MWC, they won’t play Air Force again, and thus go to the Texas Bowl, sending Purdue to the Armed Forces.

And that’s all folks. Please forgive any spelling/grammar mistakes, as it’s late, but please feel free to pick apart my logic. Later!