Category Archives: bowl predictions

Bowl Games 2009: Opening Slate

In this opening post of bowl season, we’ll go over all the pre-Christmas games. So get your TV watching area set up and get ready to go. For reference, the full set of predictions is located here, with a smaller “mobile” version available as well.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 19
4:30: Wyoming vs. Fresno State (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): While Wyoming was reasonably consistent this season, Fresno gave several good teams all they wanted (see: Wisconsin, Cincinnati), did their usual thing in the WAC, and then beat Illinois thanks to a Fat Guy two point conversion two weeks ago. I like the Bulldogs here.
Previous meetings: Last meeting was in 1997, when Fresno defeated Wyoming 24-7. The overall record between the two is 3-3.
Last bowl game: Wyoming’s last bowl game was in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, where they lost 24-21 to UCLA. Fresno lost last year’s New Mexico Bowl 40-35 to Colorado State.


8:00: Central Florida vs. Rutgers (St. Petersburg Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): I know little about Beef O’Brady’s except I’m reasonably sure I never want to go there. At any rate, while I fully support George O’Leary’s team and their late-90’s Georgia Tech replica uniforms, I have to like the State University of New Jersey here. Rutgers wasn’t great this year or anything, but it was solid enough and they should generally roll in with more talent than the non-Scarlet Knights can match. (Also, when did UCF go from the “Golden Knights” to just “Knights”?)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is UCF’s 3rd bowl in the program’s short football history (their first year of Division I-A ball was 1996), and were last seen losing 10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl against Mississippi State. This is Rutger’s 5th straight bowl appearance. Last year they beat NC State 29-23 in the papajohns.com Bowl.

Sunday, December 20
8:15: Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): It’s not like USM automatically outclasses their Sun Belt opponent in this bowl, but I still like them to win against their fellow bottom-of-the-barrel ACC team beaters. I also a expect plenty of points.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Now in their 11th season at DI-A, MTSU last went bowling in Detroit, where they lost the then-Motor City Bowl 31-14 to Central Michigan. USM makes their 7th straight bowl appearance and the 2nd year in a row at the New Orleans Bowl. Last year they beat Troy 30-27.

Tuesday, December 22 
8:00: Brigham Young vs. Oregon State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ESPN): I just don’t like BYU that much this year – something about giving up 55 points to FSU just left me with a bad taste in my mouth. (They also pretty much rolled over and died against TCU.) Oregon State should be able to just outclass them, starting with the Rodgers brothers on the ground.
Previous meetings: BYU and Oregon State have played 8 times, however, they have not faced one another since 1986. Oregon State won that meeting 10-7 and the Beavers lead the overall series 5-3.
Last bowl game: BYU’s been in a bowl game every year since 2005, and they’ve all been appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl. (I guess either Mormons really like traveling to Vegas or the organizers think it’s really funny to keep inviting them.) They lost 31-21 to Arizona last year. This will be Oregon State’s 4th straight bowl game and they currently sport a 5 game bowl winning streak. Last year they walked into the Sun Bowl and then stumbled out a few hours later with a 3-0 victory in terrible game that later gets called a “defensive battle” because that doesn’t sound as bad as saying “neither offense bothered to show up”.


Wednesday, December 23
8:00: Utah vs. California (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): Both these teams come off not-so-great losses in their previous games. Utah lost to its rival in OT, while Cal followed their victory over Stanford with a blowout loss to Washington. It’s hard to gauge this one – I like Utah in a reasonably close contest.
Previous meetings: Cal leads the overall series 4-2. The first meeting was in 1920 and a 63-0 rout by Cal. Their last meeting was in 2003, when Utah won 31-24 in Berkeley.
Last bowl game: Utah’s played in a bowl game every year since 2003, and won each of those contests, most notably the 35-7 beatdown of Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and last year’s 31-17 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Cal has also appeared in a bowl every year since 2003, and beat Miami (FL) 24-17 in last year’s Emerald Bowl.

Thursday, December 24
8:00: Southern Methodist vs. Nevada (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): SMU’s had a decent year (especially compared to last year’s campaign), but I think they will have trouble keeping up with Nevada and their bevy of 1,000 yard rushers (though they’ll be missing one of them for this game). SMU may still get a touchdown or three, but I think Nevada is plenty capable of just running all over the Mustangs.
Previous meetings: This is the 5th meeting between these two schools – the previous 5 took place after Nevada joined the WAC for the 2000 season. SMU left for C-USA in 2005. Nevada is 3-2 in the series but lost the last game in 2004 38-20.
Last bowl game: This is SMU’s first bowl game since the 1984 Aloha Bowl, where they beat Notre Dame 27-20. Incidentally, the Hawaii Bowl is played in the same stadium as the Aloha was. This will be Nevada’s 5th straight bowl game. They lost last year to Maryland in the Humanitarian Bowl, 42-35.

Don’t forget about the actual championships happening today and tomorrow, as well:
Friday
8:00: Montana vs. Villanova (@ Chattanooga, TN; ESPN2): Last weekend’s games were thrilling in their own right. I especially enjoyed Montana’s thrilling back-and-forth game with Appalachian State in freezing, snowy weather up in Montana. Had Villanova lost, I’d probably actually be at this game, but they didn’t so I’ll see it on TV.

Saturday
11:00 AM: Mount Union vs. Wisconsin-Whitewater (@ Salem, VA; ESPN2): It’s the Stagg Bowl, otherwise known as the Division III title game. A fine way to kick off your Saturday morning before taking advantage of hte last weekend of Christmas shopping, no?

At any rate, I’ll be back on Christmas day with my next set of picks and trivia. Until then…

Bowl Predictions: Final

I did upload a final set of predictions, but thanks to my obligations in Tampa and flying back I didn’t have time to do a write-up. Instead, I’ll talk about the final deal.

Keep in mind, I saw almost none of yesterday’s games except for the ACC title game and the end of the Pitt-Cincy game.

  •  On the title game: Well, Texas ran into by far the best defense they’ve played and floundered as Colt McCoy got sacked approximately a million times. The Horns still won, but nonetheless it makes you wonder – especially as Alabama rolled to a SECCG victory. Alabama also features a suffocating defense and, unlike Nebraska, has some semblance of an offense. That said, Texas still has Colt McCoy and, therefore, still has a chance – and of course, I’d prefer they win. However, the hype machine for ‘Bama is already well underway, almost reminiscent of the hype train USC rode into the 2006 Rose Bowl, and we know how that went.
  • As for the Fiesta, I don’t really have anything to add since SI’s Andy Staples summed it up already: “Welcome to Glendale, home of the Separate but Equal Bowl.”
  • That said, this has been one of the most unpredictable years for the bowls that I can remember. I think the weirdness started last week when the Outback took Auburn and just went from there. USC falling to the Emerald? The Sun willingly taking Stanford? Mizzou falling as far as they did – i.e., getting picked after Iowa State and Texas A&M? The whole stupid Florida State thing (that I talked about last week)? USF going to Toronto? Ugh.
  • Iowa over Penn State was probably the “right” thing to do, in the sense that Iowa did beat Penn State earlier this year. I was still surprised it happened, though.
  • Michigan State went a lot higher than I would’ve expected (the Alamo has the 3rd selection after the BCS), considering their recent legal troubles. Texas Tech was also a surprise there.

That’s it from now, as I’m exhausted from my adventure. More later.

Bowl Predictions: Week 7 Update (In Which Bobby Bowden Screws Half the ACC Over)

With a flurry of “unconfirmed” reports throughout the week, we have a semi-complete picture of the bowls heading into the weekend. As such, I’ve updated the predictions with any reports I felt were reasonably reliable. Note I have not otherwise changed anything that didn’t relate to a confirmation (for instance, with Auburn’s surprise Outback bid, I was able to put Tennessee in their likely destination, the Chick-fil-a, but I haven’t taken Notre Dame off the board despite most reports saying they’re not going bowling).

Let’s hit the high points of the changes, though you’ll have to do without links (for the most part):

  • As the headline might indicate, I’m as unhappy as everyone else in the ACC outside of Tallahassee about the Gator Bowl’s proposal to take 6-6 (4-4 in the ACC) FSU over basically anyone else. As you might recall from my post about the ACC’s bowl situation next year, one of the reasons for the Gator dropping the ACC was the conference’s bowl order selection rules, and apparently they’ve decided to stick it to the rest of the conference a year early. Articles over the past week have introduced a hitherto unknown rule that the bowls can opt out of the championship game loser 3 out of every 4 years, but I have yet to see any confirmation that this supersedes the conference’s one-loss rule. The Gator is arguing that it does, and thus they would probably banish the GT-Clemson loser to Nashville (perhaps “banish” is too strong, if there weren’t bowl “prestige” involved I’d rather go to Nashville over Jacksonville any day) as the Champs Sports will also take Miami using the same rule. I guess the Gator figures they’ll sell a lot of tickets, but if they do get their FSU-West Virginia matchup, any TV audience will be gone by the half. At any rate, I figured that next year’s mediocre SEC versus mediocre Big Ten matchup would make the Gator irrelevant, but it appears they want to get a head start on that.
  • Because of the chaos surrounding the Gator situation, very little is known about the rest of the ACC’s bowl situation, except that everyone still has the potential to get screwed. If Clemson loses the ACC title game, there is an outside chance the Chick-fil-a will grab them to set up a Clemson-Georgia matchup (as that is a minor rivalry game for both school that hasn’t been played since 2003), otherwise, we’ll probably get Virginia Tech and Tennessee. If the ACC title game loser doesn’t go to the Chick-fil-a (which, if Tech loses, they almost certainly won’t), they will fall all the way to the Music City, as described above. UNC is probably sitting the prettiest in this situation with a virtual lock on their customary Car Care Bowl bid (though I read at least one article that said they wanted to go to Florida this year, but thanks to FSU they probably won’t). The most screwed of all is perennial ACC bowl matchup loser Boston College, whose pretty good season will be rewarded with a trip to the Emerald Bowl. (I still don’t understand why, with no fewer than five actual football stadiums in the Bay Area they need to have a game in a baseball stadium, but that shows what I know.)
  • The Big 12 has no truly confirmed bids so far except Oklahoma State going to the Cotton. As a result, I’ve slotted Nebraska in the Holiday. Everything else is still up in the air, or at least I haven’t seen anything terribly reliable.
  • The Big East is also waiting for the results of its games Saturday, most of the guesses seem to be as good as mine.
  • The Big Ten also isn’t set, as they need to wait to make sure either Iowa or Penn State gets into the BCS. This also affects the Little Ceasars Bowl, because if neither get in (somehow) then they will pick up a Big Ten team. The only thing I know for sure is that Michigan State will not be going to Orlando.
  • The Pac-10’s bowls are waiting to see what happens this weekend, with most of the conference playing. It looks pretty likely the USC-Arizona winner will go to the Holiday, though.
  • The SEC, assured of two BCS bids, is pretty well set at this point. The Outback stunned everyone by taking Auburn, which caused a shakeup among the other teams in the middle of the SEC. I know for sure that Ole Miss will return to the Cotton, LSU will go to the Capital One. Less sure, but still pretty sure is that Arkansas will head to the Liberty Bowl and South Carolina will head to the papajohns.com Bowl. This leaves Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. They will probably head to the Independence, Chick-fil-a, and Music City bowls, respectively, but I haven’t seen anything firm enough to really call it.
  • As for everyone else, well, the MWC and WAC will probably the break they way I see it, though Utah and BYU could possibly switch places. I haven’t really seen anything regarding the destination of the various Sun Belt and MAC teams, as their fates will probably be determined which bowls end up needing at-large teams.

Anyway, I’ll update again tomorrow if anything changes. Otherwise, I will try to post my last set of destination predictions before the final BCS standings are released Sunday night. As for my trip to Tampa? Well, hopefully Houston doesn’t get snowed on too badly.

Bowl Predictions: Week 7

Well, this is the final week before the conference title games. I expect some bids to be announced this week, especially for bowls that more than likely know they’re going to need at-large teams.

With that said, let’s hit the last round of purely speculative predictions. You can find them in the usual place.

  • I could probably write a whole article on rivalry game upsets and my disappointment therein, but outside of our own blown chance the biggest loser from last weekend has to be Oklahoma State. Providing the best chance of the Big 12 getting two BCS bids this year (outside of a truly shocking upset Saturday), the Stillwater Cowboys fell flat on their face, losing 27-0 to the Sooners. With that upset, I had to relent and finally put Boise State into a BCS game, and I have a feeling the BCS may have to do the same.
  • Outside of that, the BCS selections are pretty standard. Alabama/Florida vs. Texas, the loser for the former going to the Sugar. The only really viable major at-large teams at this point are probably Iowa and Penn State, and though it pains me that either one will make it in, I have to go with the Team JoePa. I think the Fiesta will take one of those, the Orange will take Cincy, the Fieta picks up Boise and TCU is forced into the Sugar’s hands.
  • Thanks to Miss State’s upset of Ole Miss, I’ve put LSU back up at the Capital One slot. After that I really have no clue how the SEC shakes out, so what you see are reasonable guesses, I think.
  • The MAC will have two 7-5 teams, which will get slotted. MTSU is 9-3 and will have to grab an at-large spot as well. Notre Dame and UCLA are 6-6, so they will get whatver’s left, most likely.
  • I wonder if the Car Care bowl is cool with having the same matchup as last year? I don’t think any of the alternative are that palatable (i.e., FSU or BC from the ACC side or Rutgers instead of WVU).
  • Game I’d Rather See on the Hardwood: Connecticut versus Kentucky (papajohns.com Bowl).
  • Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Well, there’s the UCF-USF game, but I also like USC-Oklahoma State. I’m not sure either are all that non-obvious, though.

Bowl Predictions: Week 6

Predictions are up.

Some notes:

  • With most seasons wrapped up, hopefully we’ll start seeing some confirmations, especially for bowls that will probably not have their primary tenants.
  • What to do with Boise? I still feel its entirely possible they are left-out by the powers-that-be. For the past two weeks, I used this to put them in the Poinsettia, but with the Pac-10 only getting 1 team into the BCS and having some surprise qualifiers (like, say, Stanford) they will actually fulfill their obligations this year. Result: if Boise doesn’t get picked by the BCS, they’re probably going to the Humanitarian.
  • My BCS picks remained the same, reflecting the stability at the top after last weekend. You can switch Florida and Alabama around however you like.
  • The Sun may be too optimistic for USC at this point.
  • On second thought, Virginia Tech going to the Peach over Clemson may not be all that great – VPI has already been to Atlanta twice this year.
  • With their loss to Ole Miss, LSU slides all the way down to… the Cotton. I don’t think anyone over there is panicking about this part.
  • Other that than, there are a bevy of MAC teams that qualified with winning records (i.e., 7-5). It got to the point where it was difficult to produce matchups that didn’t involve MAC vs. MAC games. We’ll see how all that shapes up after this weekend.