Better late than never, here’s this week’s bowl predictions. They’ve actually been up for awhile, so let’s see if I can remember what I was planning on writing.

• Auburn and Oregon continue to control their own destiny. The only thing #1 really gets is the first dibs on uniforms, which is probably a bigger deal to Oregon than it is to Auburn. Either way, as long as neither loses, they’re in good shape.
• Now, if they do lose, well, a lot more variables come into play. If Oregon loses, then no one really is sure what will happen. If Auburn loses, it depends on who they lose to. If they lose to Alabama the general consensus is that such a win plus the SEC title would propel a 1-loss Crimson Tide to the title game.
• In terms of TCU/Utah and Boise, there’s actually a chance one of them could be left out even if both finish in the top 5. Only the higher ranked of the two will get the auto-bid (likely to the Rose Bowl unless Oregon loses). The other will be at the mercy of the BCS at-large process. I don’t think the BCS bowls really want to risk the outrage if, say, a #4 Boise State is left out in the cold, but it could happen. (It has before.)
• In other news, I still have no idea who is going to win the Big 12. This week’s guess is Oklahoma over Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, allowing Mizzou to get a BCS berth. Note that this berth could also go to a Big Ten at-large, like, say, Michigan State.
• You may be interested to know that I have Michigan and Texas playing each other in the Texas Bowl.
• I have one extra team this week, but it’s still kind of dicey. It mostly depends on how the mid-majors shake out, and at this point in the season I still don’t really have enough data to comb through and figure out which of those teams will reach the 6-win threshold. (See, for instance, the Sun Belt, where many teams enter conference play below .500 but then gradually claw their way up to 6-6.) As the season goes on, this gets much easier though.
• Florida and GT in the Music City Bowl? I don’t care that they lost to Mississippi State and can’t offense their way out of a paper bag, I’d still say we’re like a three touchdown underdog.
• Also, Hawaii is indeed the first confirmed team in a bowl game.

Well, it’s week two of bowl prediction season and I still have no solid idea of what’s going on here. I’ll try to do some analysis, though. Let’s try some bullet points, but first here’s a link to the predictions:

• Auburn and Oregon are the only two teams that control their BCS destiny at this point. If they both win out, they’re in. I feel pretty good about this one. If either of them loses, it’ll be chaos.
• And even then, it’s not entirely clear what will happen behind Auburn and Oregon. I have no earthly idea who is going to win the Big 12. Right now I would say it will be Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Missouri. Mizzou plays Nebraska this weekend so that will at least let me figure out the likely divisional winners. Even then, I’m not sure Mizzou could beat OU twice. Right now, however, I am projecting the Tigers as the Big 12 champs.
• As a reminder, the BCS bowls pick in this order: the bowls that lost teams to the championship game get to pick replacements first, followed by the rest of the bowls in reverse order (so this year, the Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and then Rose). Also, a mid-major team will almost certainly end up in the Rose. I think the TCU/Utah winner will jump Boise State in the BCS eventually, so that’s why I put them there.
• The rest I feel okay about. This week I actually have extra teams, as each week of conference play also makes it easier to evaluate the non-BCS conferences. Still, though, I’m nervous about having Southern Miss and Troy in the New Orleans Bowl again, but at this point it’s too early to get concrete news on which way the bowls are leaning. Though I did read somewhere Notre Dame might not even get invited to the Champs Sports Bowl (in place of the Big East runner-up), but we’ll see.
• Oh, speaking of the Big East, I’m projecting a three-way tie thanks to Syracuse upsetting West Virginia last weekend. It seemed like the most rational prediction at this point.
• As much as I hate to admit this, I’d actually like to see Georgia and Clemson play each other. That’s a pretty longstanding rivalry that should be played every year but isn’t.

Anyway, this weekend holds even more intriguing matchups that will probably change everything again. So, until next time…

Ordinarily, I use the first post of the year to go through my process and my thoughts on the individual bowls.

I won’t do that here, though, for two reasons.
1. I am really busy right now.
2. I have no idea what is going on.

Hopefully I’ll have something more substantive for week 2. In the meantime, enjoy. Oh, and yes, I am short a team. That could well happen this year!