When will I ever learn that “it’ll probably be easier this week” is pretty much a surefire way to make sure that isn’t the case?

Let’s get down to business and see why. You can follow along with the picks in their usual place.

BCS
The BCS was the single hardest thing to pick this week. With the chaos in the Big Ten, figuring out the last team into the BCS picture was extremely difficult. Here’s why.

Currently, I still have LSU and Oklahoma State running the table. I am not entirely convinced about the latter but trying to figure out which 1-loss team is most worthy, or if Boise State is, is even more difficult to figure out. (If Stanford beats Oregon this weekend, that will make my job easier.) I immediately slot Alabama into LSU’s vacated Sugar Bowl spot but even figuring out who will replace Oklahoma State in the Fiesta is difficult. I have the following automatic bids: LSU (BCS #1), Oklahoma State (BCS #2), Boise State (MWC champion ranked in top 12), Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Wisconsin (Big Ten champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Cincinnati (Big East champ). This accounts for 7 of the 10 available BCS bids. Currently, I only have 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams (not counting Houston), and the only two I didn’t mention above are Alabama and Stanford. Due to the Andrew Luck effect, I assume Stanford will be a desirable at-large team and thus will get Oklahoma State’s Fiesta Bowl bid.

Now, at this point the only remaining bids are the 3 at-large bids in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. The selections go in that order. There are two remaining automatic qualifiers: Boise State and Cincinnati. This means that there will be a 2-loss team somewhere in the BCS. But who? This could affect who the bowl picks. And this is where the Big Ten shenanigans come in.

With Nebraska’s shocking upset to Northwestern, this means there will be no Big Ten team with less than two losses at the end of the year (I think it’s safe to assume Penn State will lose one of their remaining games (I have them losing two more, actually)). This also means Nebraska has two conference losses. Michigan State only has one conference loss, and I don’t think they will lose again this year. So they will win the Legends division, where I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That would give Michigan State three losses. Whereas Nebraska – having continued winning through the end of the season – should be able to rise back up into the top 14 of the BCS.

So, yeah, it’s probably unfair, but them’s the breaks. Thanks to BCS hot-potato and backroom dealing, I went ahead and figured the Fiesta would suck it up and take Boise, setting up a game that sounds epic, at least in name: Alabama versus Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl. (I wasn’t surprised to find the two schools had met in the Sugar Bowl before – in 1967. Unfortunately, it apparently wasn’t much of a classic as the Tide won 34-7.)

In any BCS scenario, I figure the odds of the Orange avoiding an ACC-Big East matchup are slim.

ACC
The only ACC team that can possibly have only 1-loss is the ACC champ. I currently have this team as Clemson.

Thanks to unexpectedly strong seasons from Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia the ACC should fill out its primary bowl obligations this year and then some. The first slots after the BCS are easy: Virginia Tech to the Chick-fil-a and Florida State to the Champs Sports bowl (setting up a good “name” matchup if the Champs uses their option to select Notre Dame). This brings us to the Sun Bowl. According to the ACC selection rules, the Sun can choose from the following: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, and Miami. Miami went to the Sun Bowl last year so I figure they’re out. I don’t Virginia or Wake are known for traveling terribly well, and so I’ve put GT there. This allows the rest of the dominoes to fall into place. I’ve put NC State into the Belk Bowl (formerly the Car Care Bowl), followed by Miami to the Music City and Virginia to the Independence. Wake Forest finally gets picked for the Military Bowl, mostly because ACC rules prevent a 3-5 UNC from being picked above them. This allows North Carolina to be shipped out to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl in San Fransisco, fulfilling the ACC option as a backup for the Pac-12 or Army.

Big East
If it seems like the Big East selections were drawn out of a hat, well, they very well could have been. For the sake of my sanity, I picked Cincy to run the table followed by Louisville, WVU, and Pitt. Oy. They will have an extra team, though, since I have Syracuse getting 6-6, so I put them in the Military Bowl slot the Big 12 won’t come anywhere close to filling.

Big 12
The Big 12 is pretty much the two Oklahoma schools and everyone else. Texas seems to have gotten its act together so I slotted them into the Cotton. Everything else straightforward, though Baylor kind of gets the shaft. If Iowa State or Texas Tech and manage to win another game that would really be a boon for the conference but considering their schedules I don’t see it happening.

Big Ten
The Big Ten is a mess right now. I talked about the Nebraska thing above, and that was mostly just me going “well, someone has to have a 2-bid conference that probably doesn’t deserve it” and so I figured a 2-loss team from the Big Ten would fit the bill. Michigan State will probably still land in the Capital One Bowl, so that’s not a huge deal. I have both Michigan and Penn State going 9-3, with the Outback bid going to the Fightin’ Paternos and shipping Michigan off to Arizona. The rest of the slate is pretty “meh” and straightforward, though even after four weeks it still feels weird projecting Ohio State into second-tier bowl games.

Pac-12
Boy does this conference miss USC being eligible or what? Speaking of crazy upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska was shocking, yes, but not Earth-shaking (well, metaphorically considering recent events in Oklahoma). UCLA over Arizona State, though? Now there’s an upset. Consider this: the team that got pantsed by Arizona only a few Thursdays ago and had all but officially announced they’d fired the head coach is now in a 3-way tie for the Pac-12 South lead. Now, I figure Arizona State will still win the division in the end, but still. Also, don’t look but Utah should get to 6-6 pretty easily over the next few weeks, if not 7-5. I tried to resist it, but it was just too easy match them against TCU in the Las Vegas Bowl if for no other reason than to get Utah partisans to say, “wait, we joined a BCS conference and we still ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl… and playing one of our former MWC rivals?” I had some hesitation though because that meant Cal ended up in the Fights Hunger Bowl, which is being played in the stadium that’s serving as their home field this year. Well, if nothing else I guess they’ll be used to it.

SEC
SEC partisans will no doubt howl about the 2-team limit for BCS participation, because if Arkansas’s only losses are to LSU and Alabama then they should easily stay in the BCS top 14. Nonetheless, the BCS slate was pretty straightforward, though I am hoping I’m wrong and Vandy gets up to 6-6.

Everyone else
The Sun Belt and MAC will benefit, as usual, from having surplus eligible teams. I still have Western Kentucky on track to make their first ever bowl game. Overall, though, there’s nothing Earthshattering going on here other than an undefeated Houston being stuck in the Liberty Bowl, but at least that makes it a good bet for Conference USA to make it two straight in the game. This week not having enough teams does not appear to be a concern, and from what I remember while doing the predictions, it appears we’ll be okay this year. (Though honestly one of my favorite bowl system doomsday scenarios that no one talks about is the specter of a team with a losing record making it into a bowl game.)

Anyway, next week probably be just as difficult and confusing, though which way it ultimately goes may be decided just up the road from me here in California. Until then…

Let’s get the link out of the way.

I feel like I’m close to really being able to do an in-depth analysis, though I think we won’t really be able to have a real idea of what things will look like until Oregon and Stanford play. While this weekend’s Alabama-LSU tilt is huge for the national title game, the loser will likely still get into a BCS bowl as long as they don’t lose again. I think Oregon will beat Stanford, which leaves me in a bad position because I also think Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State. For the sake of clarity right now, I’m not going with the latter prediction to avoid a big mess, pretty much.

Elsewhere in the BCS, I’m not really sure to do after I slot the Alabama-LSU loser into the Sugar Bowl. I have Wisconsin, Oregon, Clemson, and West Virginia as conference champs, and Boise should qualify for an at-large. So that leaves us with two more at-large slots. I went with Stanford and Oklahoma. I couldn’t figure out any other better 1-loss team to put into the BCS, pretty much. Even a 1-loss Stanford feels like a reach to me, but Andrew Luck alone may get them into the BCS, in the sense that NFL fans my flock to see the future #1 draft pick.

Quick conference breakdowns:

• ACC: As ecstatic as I was about our victory Saturday, I’m not sure how much it will help our bowl positioning unless we can beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia. I also ended up in the awkward positioning of sending Miami back to the Sun Bowl, which I kind of doubt will happen again. I have Clemson losing again, but to South Carolina.
• Big 12: I still think that Bedlam will probably only act as a NCG stepping stone for Oklahoma State, provided they don’t lose beforehand. I don’t have Mizzou or Texas Tech getting eligible, even with the former delivering a surprise upset this week, and with the latter’s surprise upset being a good reason why they might not make 6-6.
• Big East: I… guess West Virginia’s going to win this conference? Who the heck knows. 
• Big Ten: Michigan suddenly sits pretty at the top of the Big Ten heap, with Michigan State unable to follow up on their Wisconsin win. Wisconsin also suffered a surprising loss to Ohio State, but I still have them winning the Leaders division because Penn State can’t really be for real, can they?
• Pac-12: I still have Oregon beating Stanford. Meanwhile, I think Utah will rally over the back half of their schedule because now they get to play the Colorados and UCLAs of the world. They may even get to 8-4. Either way, with USC not eligible and Cal barely getting in at 6-6, the Pac-12 will come nowhere close to fulfilling its obligations.
• SEC: The SEC elite this year (Alabama and LSU) will almost certainly make BCS bowls as long as neither loses more than once. Unlike in past years, though, the depth of the conference is not that great. Ole Miss and Kentucky are just outright terrible. I have Miss State and Tennessee limping at 6-6. I also have Vandy going 6-6 but for them that’s a pretty good year. The East is down to Georgia and South Carolina, and I think the latter could still lose again in SEC play. I swapped South Carolina and Arkansas in their bowl slots because I had Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and they already played Arkansas this year – in Dallas, no less. (The Cotton prefers teams from the SEC West, but Auburn may be the only other team in the division that has a winning record.) 
• Independents: I have the Champs Sports Bowl exercising its Notre Dame pick this year, otherwise the Domers will probably fall back to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City. BYU is already eligible and has an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. I don’t think either of the academies will qualify this year. Navy already has 6 losses and according to some sites I’ve seen this already discounts them because the Army game is too late on the calendar. And I’m not sure where they Army team is going to get 3 wins from.
• Mid-majors: The Sun Belt and MAC benefit hugely once again from Big 6 conferences unable to use all their bids. I have 4 eligible Sun Belt teams, including Western Kentucky making its first ever bowl game. The WAC will probably only have 3 eligible teams, one of them being Hawaii. The MAC should produce 6 eligible teams, providing plenty of backup. Hard part is that many of the bowls missing teams are out west, which makes it difficult to say “oh yeah, that’s close, maybe they’ll go there”. Boise will make the BCS provided they don’t lose at some point, and the rest of the Mountain West should fulfill its obligations as teams like Air Force and San Diego State should get their seasons together. And finally, the C-USA title game may be pretty good this year, as Southern Miss is on a collision course for only 1 loss going into the game with Houston. Case Keenum may still be too much for the Golden Eagles, though. Houston almost certainly can’t get into the BCS (due to their schedule) but the C-USA has a good chance of holding onto the Liberty Bowl title, I should think.

All right, that’s that. Hopefully I’ll have more thorough breakdowns next week. Until then.