Well, it just wouldn’t do have the This Weekend in College Football up before the end of the bowl predictions are. The predictions themselves have been up since Sunday, but unfortunately I haven’t had a chance to write anything yet. So here’s some thing quick, focusing mainly on the BCS situation.

I have Oregon and Kansas State in the title game, and note also that I have Oregon in the #1 slot. I still think that if they go undefeated over their remaining schedule (Stanford, Oregon State, and the Pac-12 South winner) they will gain enough favor with the computers to pass Kansas State. So let’s talk about the other BCS bowls.

Though some think Louisiana Tech has a shot, they have no currency with the computers and little chance to gain it. They also need a whole bunch of teams in front of them to lose. It’s not impossible that they enter the Top 16 and pass the Big East or Big Ten winner, but it’s improbable.

So let’s get to the automatic winners: Alabama (SEC, Sugar), Florida State (ACC, Orange), and Nebraska (Big Ten, Rose). With the first selection from the at-large pool, the Rose is likely to take Notre Dame now, especially if the Irish remain undefeated. (If Notre Dame loses, then they could take Oklahoma.) With the second selection is the Fiesta, and I think if they’re available they’ll take Oklahoma. The Fiesta also gets the next pick from the at-large pool. After ND and Oklahoma, the remaining candidates are less obvious. We have a gaggle of SEC teams, from which only one can be chosen, a one-or-two loss Clemson, and Louisville. On the fringes are a few three-loss teams, like Oregon State and Stanford, but I really don’t think they’ll be selected. Basically, given the above scenario, I think the Fiesta will take any available 1-loss SEC team. Right now I am still projecting that team to be Florida. LSU, South Carolina, and a three-loss Texas A&M are also in the mix. (Note that UGA is not.) The Sugar at this point will want someone other than Louisville, but by now the only other possible someone is Clemson, who can still make it with two-losses but they will be doing themselves a huge favor if they beat South Carolina. And finally, Louisville goes to Miami.

Otherwise, the rest of the grid is still very much in flux these last couple of weeks. This week I had exactly 70 teams qualify for a bowl. Good news for the MAC, WAC and Sun Belt, but not so good for nervous bowl commissioners.

Notable matchups:

• Cotton Bowl, Texas A&M vs. Texas: I’m perhaps just blinded by the potential of this, but it almost just has to happen, doesn’t it? Fortunately Texas has been playing well enough recently to get there. That said, it also depends on where TAMU gets up to – does the Capital One Bowl get frisky and take them? What about a BCS bowl even, as ESPN’s Brad Edwards predicted? If TAMU does fall to to the Cotton, I am almost certain they would take them over LSU at this point.
• Fiesta Bowl, Oklahoma vs. Florida: a matchup of a team with a good offense versus a team whose best offense literally is their defense.
• Potato Bowl, Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois: this game would be the way any game played on blue turf in the late afternoon of the first day of bowl games: chock full o’ points, as the NIU ground game meets LaTech’s Air Raid attack.

Don’t forget to have a look at a5’s rundown of the ACC Coastal’s tiebreaker scenarios, and otherwise, enjoy the remaining portion of the week!

Welcome back. The predictions are up, and we’re only three weeks away now from the final set of predictions. I did attempt to search for news, but there’s not much action going on there yet except for a few stray beat writers and the rest of the Internet’s so-called “predictions”. Pschaw.

A quick note on methodology: remember, this is not a snapshot, but rather predictions on where teams will be at the end of the season. Hence why we’ve got Alabama and Oregon in the title game.

Quick note before we begin: with their 24-17 victory over Florida Atlantic, Navy reached the 6 win mark and accepted a bid to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

BCS
Let’s start at the top. I am still projecting Oregon, if they win out, to pass Kansas State in the BCS. I doubt at this point they will actually completely pass Kansas State in the computers, but rather just gain enough ground to let their #2 ranking in both human polls buoy them to the top.

Other than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State, at-large locks for BCS bids are likely Florida (provided Georgia doesn’t lose to Auburn this weekend and they do lose to Alabama in the SEC title game), Florida State (provided they win the ACC title game, or with an at-large bid assured if they beat Florida), Oklahoma (if they win out). I am still agreeing with some other analysts that the Rose will play nice and take Oklahoma, which they will probably be more inclined to do if Nebraska is the Big Ten’s champion. This would allow the Fiesta to match Notre Dame against Kansas State. At this point, if Florida does not lose to Florida State (or anyone else), they will likely head to the Sugar Bowl as Alabama’s replacement. If they do stumble, then you could see Georgia or South Carolina there.

Louisville, or whoever bothers to win the Big East, is the last automatic qualifier. This leaves a mess for the last possible at-large spot. As noted last week, Boise State was in position to do this by finishing ahead of Nebraska in the BCS standings, but they lost to San Diego State. There is a two-team-per-conference limit, so none of the various SEC teams littering the top 14 can qualify. A strong candidate, if everything were to be done today, would be Oregon State, but I have them losing twice to end up at 9-3. I also have Stanford losing to Oregon, putting them at 9-3. USC could have as many as five losses at this point if they end up playing in the Pac-12 title game. This leaves only one potential 1 or 2 loss team: Clemson. Provided Clemson doesn’t pull a Clemson against Maryland or NC State, they will head into their game against South Carolina at 10-1. If they win, they will wrap up an at-large bid. At this point, given the rest of my projections, even if they lose to the Gamecocks they will still be 10-2 and more palatable than, say, a 10-2 Rutgers. For those of keeping score at home, yes, this would be the first time ever the ACC has sent two teams to the BCS. They would likely be selected by the Sugar, leaving Louisville to play FSU in the Orange.

ACC
With Clemson off to the promised land, this leaves the rest of the ACC’s bowl partners in rather unenviable positions. The Chick-fil-a would almost certainly go with an 8-4/5 Miami, and the Russell Athletic Bowl snapping up NC State. I have no other ACC teams projected to finish with winning records, with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finishing 6-6. (Well, UNC should finish 8-4, but they’re on sanctions.) And even then, that’s with a rather heavy dose of optimism on my part, because I’m sure not crazy about our chances against Carolina this weekend. Either way, I’m sending VPI to the Sun, us to the Belk, and Duke to the Music City.

Big 12
I was able to put Texas back into the Cotton Bowl, but I couldn’t quite arrange things to put Texas A&M into the game as well. I also put Texas Tech into the Alamo over Oklahoma State, but everything else proceeds in order from there. In a rarity, the Big 12 will actually have enough teams, even with two of them going to the BCS.

Big East
Please, someone, anyone, win this thing, but preferably a team that hasn’t lost to anyone from the MAC.

Big Ten
Iowa’s loss to Indiana (Indiana!) this past weekend probably wrecks the chances of everyone in the Legends division qualifying. Unfortunately, I still don’t have Indiana getting to 6-6, so Wisconsin remains the only eligible team from the Leaders. Minnesota can thank their incredibly soft out-of-conference scheduling for getting them to the new Car Care Bowl despite going 2-6 in Big Ten play.

Pac-12
The infighting in the conference wrecks their chances of getting two BCS teams, unless Stanford or Oregon State upset Oregon in the next few weeks. Otherwise, I actually have Arizona as a 7-5 team with nowhere to go. The projections for at-large teams in other bowls is a total crapshoot until officials of the affected bowls start talking about who they’re looking at (which one of the reason I start looking for news), so for now I’m shipping the Wildcats off to Shreveport to make up for a lack of ACC teams.

SEC
Thanks to generous out-of-conference schedules and some really awful teams at the bottom of the conference, the SEC should get 5 teams to the 10-win mark this year. I had to put 10-2 LSU in the Cotton over 9-3 Texas A&M, but that could still change in the coming weeks. I also have Tennessee limping to 6-6 ad a Liberty Bowl bid, though they could also go to the Compass Bowl.

Everyone Else
It does look like we will avert the shortage of teams catastrophe. It just seems to “work out” every year, but someday it probably won’t. As much as I like doing these projections, frankly if we had 5 less bowls I don’t think anyone would notice. Also, with Boise not making the BCS, this pushes 6-6 New Mexico out of the Mountain West affiliated bowls. Along with 6-6 Western Michigan, they could be the only two eligible teams sitting at home this year.

As usual, things will look different next week. After the excitement of last weekend, the marquee game for the top teams this weekend will be Alabama-Texas A&M. But, hey, more on that later in the week.

It’s that time again. Predictions are up at the usual place. Things have changed a bit since the first two weeks. Heading into the final month of the season, most teams only have four games left and the picture starts to become clearer for many teams in hovering the 5 to 7 win mark. Of course, we also have new complications due to thinks like Oklahoma and USC losing again. So let’s start with the BCS.

BCS
Like many other prognosticators, I still have Alabama and Oregon as my #1 and #2. Oregon’s schedule (plus the Pac-12 title game) should help them out in the computers. Notre Dame should slip in the machine rankings over the final weeks of the season, especially if USC loses again (which they will at least once). Kansas State will be a tougher nut to crack, but Oregon will remain #2 in both human polls if they win out, and again, they have the benefit of playing a 13th game. (Though it is worth noting the Pac-12 title game and Kansas State will both be on Saturday, December 1, so there isn’t a “one of the teams didn’t play the past week” advantage.)

Florida may have actually improved their chances of going to a BCS game by missing out on the SEC title game. I still think they will win out, including a win over my predicted ACC champion Florida State. If Florida only has one loss and does not play in the SEC title game (thus meaning they won’t lose to Alabama), I still like them to go to the Sugar.

The Rose Bowl is a bigger question. Nebraska’s win over Michigan this past weekend makes them the Big Ten frontrunners, so I’ll put them in the Rose. However, with an at-least two-loss Nebraska there, does the Rose gain anything by taking Notre Dame, or will they defer to the Fiesta and pick-up Oklahoma? Nebraska-Oklahoma was once one the biggest rivalries in the sport and the two teams have not played since 2010. Either way, with USC’s loss to Arizona State this weekend, it does not look like there will be a Pac-12 runner up worthy of BCS consideration.

If the Rose does pass on an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame, then they will definitely snapped up by the Fiesta to play a jilted Kansas State. I actually have ND going undefeated now, but if everything breaks as explained above it won’t matter.

New to the predictions this week is Boise State. Boise sits at #19 in the current BCS rankings, three spots away from the promised land provided they don’t lose and finish ahead of the Big Ten champion (which they currently will). Boise is split in the human polls, with the coaches putting them at #14 and Harris at #17. It stands to reason they’ll pick up a couple spots in the Harris poll if they don’t lose, and maybe even pick up a couple more spots in some of the computers (two of which don’t even have them in their top 25’s). Either way, if Boise makes it them they will go to the Orange and Louisville will be in the Sugar.

Possibly even more interesting is what happens if Boise doesn’t make it, however. I’m not entirely sure they will, and I very, very nearly put Clemson in the Sugar. It could happen, especially if they beat a now-depleted South Carolina in their last game of the season. The BCS feels almost like it was counting on always having at least two Big Ten and two SEC teams every year. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and entirely too-many SEC teams at the top of the polls, this creates a logjam of teams near the fringes that could get in.

ACC
FSU is in the driver’s seat of the ACC. Less clear is just who the heck will win the Coastal. I have Miami pulling it off, finally setting up the FSU-Miami ACC title game that the conference bigwigs envisioned all those years ago when they set up the divisions and picked Florida cities for the original title games. Even as title game losers, I like Miami for the Russel Athletic Bowl. Clemson and NC State should follow into the Chick-fil-a and Sun Bowls. I have three Coastal at 6-6, including Virginia Tech, Duke, and probably entirely too optimistically at this point, Georgia Tech. I put those three into the Belk, Independence, and Music City, respectively.

Big 12
I finally have to give up on my dream of Texas playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I project Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to finish ahead of the Longhorns in the conference, which just makes the notion too infeasible at this point. I put TTU in the Cotton, and then the Cowboys into the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Texas is relegated to the Alamo. The Holiday Bowl could be fun again with my projected matchup of West Virginia and Southern Cal. I also have Iowa State and TCU making in at 6-6, but I put Baylor at 4-8.

Big East
Well, Louisville hasn’t lost to a MAC team yet so they’re the Big East frontrunners now. New this week is 6-6 Syracuse sneaking in, but I couldn’t put them into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I have Nebraska going 10-2, but remember, Wisconsin just as easily win the Big Ten title game, which I have them entering at 8-4. Either way, the Badgers may be the only eligible team from the Leaders division that even makes it to 6-6 or better, though Indiana or Purdue could do it, at least in theory. The Legends compensates by getting everyone eligible, even Minnesota, which thanks to a generous schedule can go 2-6 in the Big Ten and still make a bowl.

Pac-12
USC’s loss this past weekend makes it very difficult for me to project them beating Oregon and Notre Dame. I now have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 South. Stanford could finish 9-3 but I don’t think losing to Oregon in November will help their BCS chances. I actually even have Utah sneaking in at 6-6, after upsetting Cal this past weekend.

SEC
I already talked about the very top of the SEC, so let’s focus on the runners up. I don’t have Georgia or South Carolina losing again, except for the former in the SEC title game. Nonetheless, I put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl because South Carolina played there last year. Everything else was pretty much going down the line. I do have Tennessee sneaking at 6-6. Hey, they’ve done it before.

That’s pretty much it for this week. Next week I’ll incorporate news into the projections, which especially helps sort out my guesses for bowls that won’t get their contractually obligated teams (read: the Military and BBVA Compass bowls).

They’re available at the usual place.

No commentary this week, other than that I seemed to have less of a need for the emergency pool of teams. Will this hold up next week? We’ll find out soon enough.

In the meantime, why yes, I will take my BCS jokes with a side of Blade Runner.

To all of you getting bent about the BCS, I say to thee: I’ve seen things you wouldn’t believe.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

I’ve seen Iowa State beat Oklahoma State on a Friday night. I watched Pitt’s helmets glitter in the lights as they beat West Virginia.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

All of these moments will be lost in time, like tears in the rain. In the BCS, it is always time to die.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

References: 1) 2011 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
2) 2007 Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia

It’s that time of year again, folks! This is where I try to predict the future. For the next month-and-a-half I will attempt to tell you where your team will go. After that, I then try to predict all the games. It’s difficult, but this is my 14th crack at this, so I like to think I know what I’m talking about.

Through the remainder of the fall, the predictions will always be available right here.

Anyway, let’s start by looking at the BCS picture.

BCS
Figuring this out is always the tough part. It requires weighing a multitude of factors and attempting to predict the mindset two disparate groups of people and a set of formulas. What I usually do is I sit down late Saturday or Sunday and try to basically predict what every team is going to do for the rest of the season. For the non-BCS leagues, this usually doesn’t impact anything unless there’s a BCS buster, which it doesn’t look like there will be (unless Boise State wins out, but I don’t seem them doing that). For the six “AQ” conferences, this means figuring out their champion and runners-up to see if they will end up with two losses or less.

This year that proved to be difficult. From where I sit right now, I don’t see any 1-loss major conference teams, other than Florida. I have Alabama and Oregon running the table, and thus, in the National Championship game. This means the Sugar and Rose bowls get first cracks at replacements from the pool of eligible teams. Notre Dame is the big prize, as they will likely be eligible as a BCS at-large for the first time in awhile as long as they have two losses or less. (I have them losing to Southern Cal and Oklahoma.) I would think the Sugar would jump at the chance to snag Notre Dame. The Rose will probably be able to pick from USC or Oregon State. Even though USC is local I have them going there for now. As the Big 12 champion, Oklahoma will go to the Fiesta Bowl, which has the first at-large team pick this year. I have Florida going there. The matchup for the Sugar is problematic. They will have to pick a team from the Big 12 since the ACC likely will not qualify two teams (and I doubt they would take them anyway) and the Big East is the Big East. For now, I have them taking my top 2-loss Big 12 team, West Virginia. From there, the Orange gets the ACC champ versus Big East champ yet again. Right now I have Florida State and Cincinnati penciled in.

ACC
With FSU winning the conference, that leaves Clemson as the clear second choice. It’s been a year since the Tigers were in Atlanta, so I’ll send them to the Chick-fil-a. (Also, the ACC bowl rules don’t leave much of a choice.) From there, things drop off rapidly. I have NC State going 8-4 and heading to the Russell Athletic (formerly Champ Sports) Bowl, and then a pair if 7-5 teams in VPI and Miami going to the Sun and Belk Bowls. Right now I have GT squeaking in at 6-6 and going to the Music City. Maryland falls just sort at 5-7 and UNC is ineligible even though I have them at 10-2. But, wait, what’s that? Yes, Duke is on the page. I have them going 5-7 and there’s a new set of eligibility rules. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Big East
I have Cincinnati winning the whole thing, followed by Louisville going to the Russell Athletic, and Rutgers going to the Belk. I bent over backwards to get UConn to 6-6 and put them in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
As we all already know at this point, the Big Ten is a disaster this year. I have Ohio State winning out, but of course they’re not eligible, so they’re out. I also have Penn State going 6-6 but they’re also ineligible. So I have Michigan coming out on top and heading to Pasadena, with the usual assortment of teams behind them.

Big 12
Thanks to generous out-of-conference scheduling, 8 of the Big 12’s 10 teams will go bowling this year. I have Oklahoma going to the Fiesta and West Virginia going to the Sugar despite a late loss to Oklahoma. I know it seems unlikely right now but I still have Texas doing well over the rest of the season and going to the Cotton, while I’m not sure Kansas State is for real so I have them going to the Alamo.

Pac-12
Oregon and USC are probably BCS-bound, so that leaves out-of-nowhere 10-win Oregon State going to the Alamo. The most interesting matchup is probably Stanford-Baylor in the Holiday Bowl, which will be the “A Year Too Late Bowl” if that actually comes to pass.

SEC
I have Alabama and Florida going to the BCS. I think it’s probably unlikely, but it was too hard to resist putting Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl against Texas. (If it’s possible, I can’t imagine them not doing it though.) I have both South Carolina and Georgia at 10-2 and currently in the Capital One and Outback Bowls. Since that’s where they went last year, that could easily be flipped. I have Tennessee going 7-5, as well as Ole Miss and Vanderbilt going 6-6 to squeak in.

Everyone Else
I have Ohio running the table in the MAC, but unfortunately that won’t be enough to get them into the BCS picture. Conference USA is just brutal this year. What is usually a plentiful source of teams may only have four teams make it to six wins, though UCF and Tulsa could both win 10 games. If you look at the table, you may notice “UTSA??” and “Duke??”. What the double question marks mean is that they qualify under the new set of eligibility rules that area also detailed on the bowls page. Texas-San Antonio qualifies as a 6-6 or better team that is a transitional team, and Duke qualifies as a 5-7 team that finished in the top 5 of last year’s APR. Otherwise, I will be two teams short.

So far the past couple years, everything has worked itself out such that I am not short of teams. Right now, however, it’s hard to see how there will be enough teams without invoking the new rule.

As usual, everything will be different next week. The biggest game of the weekend, by far, is South Carolina-Florida. This will likely determine the SEC Champ and thus the SEC’s second BCS team this year.