Okay, it’s that time again. For those who just want to get straight to the good stuff, look no further.

First, a note on the process. At this point, we’re now firmly at the point in the season where we start looking up news and notes online. If you want to try this for yourself, I generally just use Google news, type the name of the bowl in double quotes, and also “-site:bleacherreport.com” because that site is written mostly by a bunch of amateurs who are worse at this predictions thing than I am. For the most part, you want articles from newspaper beat writers. This is mostly because they generally actually talk to bowl officials to try to get an idea of where the teams they cover are going. Also, this clues them into any bowl selection minutiae you might not otherwise know. For instance, the BBVA Compass Bowl is guaranteed a SEC team this year because they didn’t get one last year. The downside is, you need to have a gauge to know whether the minutiae is true or if they’re guessing. I also still see some inaccuracies in newspaper articles, such as one that claimed the Cotton Bowl gets to pick a SEC East team before the Capital One Bowl does, a claim refuted multiple times by the bowl’s official Twitter feed last night. (The guy behind the tweets for both the Capital One Bowl and Russell Athletic Bowl is pretty awesome by the way, and many of my problems would be solved if all bowls were as transparent about their selection process as those two are.)

Also on that note, I am going to switch up the format of this post a bit. Because there is probably something wrong with me, I will run down all of the bowl games in this week’s post and give, at a minimum, the possible teams in play for each. I should note, though, that in almost any at-large team scenario I am generally guessing from my available pool of leftover teams.

I will start with the BCS as usual, and then work chronologically backward since, roughly speaking, the more prestigious bowls are located closer to New Year’s Day than not. As with the main bowl prediction table, an asterisk means the team has accepted a bid, two asterisks means I predicted the bid correctly, and a question mark indicates a fill-in team (whether a contractually obligated back-up team or a general at-large).

BCS National Championship Game
Pick: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
Prediction: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Possibilities: Georgia
After all the stuff I typed up last week, the simplest possible scenario prevailed (unfortunately). The winner of the SEC title game will play Notre Dame for the BCS crown. That’s pretty much it.

Fiesta Bowl
Pick: BCS (Big 12 champion) vs. BCS (at-large)
Prediction: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Possibilities: Stanford, Oklahoma
I don’t really think the Fiesta would take Stanford over Oregon if they lost the Pac-12 title game this weekend, but it’s a possibility. Oklahoma would go here as the Big 12 champ if they beat TCU and Kansas State loses to Texas.

Sugar Bowl
Pick: BCS (SEC champion) vs. BCS (at-large)
Prediction: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Possibilities: Kansas State, Clemson, Kent State, Big East champion
Yes, you’re reading that correctly. Kent State is currently #17 in the latest BCS rankings. While it’s more likely they would wind up in the Orange Bowl, if they beat Northern Illinois in the MAC title game Friday night and UCLA and Texas lose as I expect then they will finish in the top 16 of the BCS rankings. Since all the possibilities for Big East champion are currently not in the top 25, they will finish ahead of them. The only catch is that I don’t see Kent State beating Northern Illinois. NIU themselves also has a shot, but they’re currently at #21 and so farther away from the promised land.  If a MAC team does qualify, then I would expect the Sugar to take the Big East champ. Note that as long as Florida stays ranked about the SEC championship game loser in the BCS rankings, they are guaranteed a spot in this game since they will finish #3 in the rankings. There is also a slim chance of Clemson still getting an at-large bid if both Oklahoma and Kansas State lose and the Sugar decides they’d rather have a two-loss Clemson than a three-loss OU or two-loss K-State.

Orange Bowl
Pick: BCS (ACC champion) vs. BCS (at-large)
Prediction: Florida State vs. Rutgers
Possibilities: Georgia Tech, Kent State, some other team from the Big East
I think you all know about how much I dislike deciphering the Big East at this point (and with both Rutgers and Louisville losing last weekend, I feel like that sort of proved my point). If you hate the BCS, you should probably be rooting for Georgia Tech against, like, Syracuse or something. (As a GT fan, we could always use more fans, so you’re more than welcome to get on our bandwagon to play in the most absurd BCS bowl since the either the 2006 Orange Bowl (Wake Forest-Louisville) or the 2011 Fiesta Bowl (Oklahoma-Connecticut).)

Rose Bowl
Pick: BCS (Big Ten champion) vs. BCS (Pac-12 champion)
Prediction: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Possibilities: Wisconsin, UCLA
The Rose is pretty straightforward at this point.

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Pick: Sun Belt #2 vs. MAC #2
Prediction: Arkansas State vs. Kent State
Possibilities: any other Sun Belt team, Northern Illinois, any other MAC team if Kent State goes to BCS
As far as I know, this bowl does not have any contract stipulation regarding the records of the team it picks. It picks behind the New Orleans Bowl for the Sun Belt (which has already taken Louisiana-Lafayette) and the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl, which will take the MAC champion this year.

BBVA Compass Bowl
Pick: SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5/6
Prediction: Mississippi vs. Ohio?
Possibilities: Pittsburgh, any bowl eligible Sun Belt team, any bowl eligible MAC team
If Pitt gets to 6-6, they will go here or to Tampa. In my news search earlier, I did find that due to the wacky swap with the Liberty and Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl last year this game will get a SEC team this year. I would normally think Ole Miss would go to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl. Note that Vandy is maybe a possibility here, but I believe the SEC does have some language regarding records in their deals and Vandy is 8-4 while Ole Miss is 6-6.

Cotton Bowl
Pick: Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3/4
Prediction: Texas vs. Louisiana State
Possibilities: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
The Cotton Bowl gets the first pick of the Big 12 teams after the BCS and will grab Oklahoma or Kansas State if they’re forced out of the BCS either because both lost or because a MAC team made it in. Most likely, they will be picking between Texas and Oklahoma State. I went with Texas, but I figure either is equally likely if they can’t get Texas A&M. The Cotton Bowl’s agreement with the SEC says they will generally “prefer” a SEC West team, and this year figures to be no exception. The Cotton would probably prefer Texas A&M, but they will almost certainly take LSU if they are available, which I figure to be the case.

Outback Bowl
Pick: Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
Prediction: Northwestern vs. South Carolina
Possibilities: Nebraska, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
If Nebraska loses the Big Ten title game, they could land here. Likely I think they will take which of Michigan or Northwestern the Capital One doesn’t take. On the SEC side, just as the Cotton is supposed to prefer SEC West teams, the Outback is supposed to prefer teams from the East. I think they will probably take South Carolina, but the SEC title game loser is a very strong possibility. I sort of went with this to avoid a potential South Carolina-Clemson rematch in the Chick-fil-a Bowl, but in real life the Outback Bowl doesn’t have to care about that.

Capital One Bowl
Pick: SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2
Prediction: Texas A&M vs. Michigan
Possibilities: Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska
I think it’s pretty unlikely that the Capital One Bowl would take either conference’s title game loser. More likely is that they’ll take a team that hasn’t played in a Florida bowl game since the 60’s and has the nation’s most exciting player as their quarterback. On the Big Ten side, they can consider Nebraska if they lose to Wisconsin, but I think more likely is that they are choosing between Northwestern and Michigan. In the end, I think Michigan’s larger fan base and their own exciting player will win out over Northwestern’s very good season.

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Pick: C-USA #2/3/4/5/6 vs. Big Ten #7
Prediction: Baylor? vs. Purdue
Possibilities: any of the bowl eligible Conference USA teams (other than the champion), Iowa State, Minnesota
Apparently at some point during the season the Big 12 signed an agreement with this bowl (which I like to call the “Zombie Cotton Bowl” since it’s a New Year’s Day bowl game at, well, the Cotton Bowl), and it should come in handy since C-USA won’t have enough teams and the Big 12 doesn’t have enough bowls for all its teams. Iowa State or Baylor could represent the Big 12, as could Minnesota or Purdue from the Big Ten.

Gator Bowl
Pick: Big Ten #4 vs. SEC #6
Prediction: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Possibilities: Northwestern, Michigan, South Carolina, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Georgia could fall all the way here if they lose the SEC title game, though I doubt they will. South Carolina could end up here if the Chick-fil-a Bowl has to take Clemson. Looking over the Big Ten, I don’t think any of the 6-6 teams would jump Wisconsin to get here. Northwestern could fall here if the Outback takes Wisconsin instead. I don’t view Michigan getting past the Cap One and Outback Bowls as terribly likely.

Chick-fil-a Bowl
Pick: ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
Prediction: Clemson vs. Georgia
Possibilities: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Mississippi State, South Carolina
If Clemson gets into the BCS somehow, then all heck breaks loose for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. The ACC’s agreement with them (and all their bowls) require that they take a team within two conference wins of the best available team. In this case, that would mean Georgia Tech at 5-3 (assuming we lose in the ACC title game), NC State at 4-4, and Virginia Tech at 4-4. I can’t imagine any of these possibilities are exciting for the CFA Bowl, even though Clemson already traveled to Atlanta this year to play in their kickoff game. By the same rule, Clemson at 7-1 (or, via some miracle, Florida State at 7-1) would be the choice(s) if they are available. That said, if Georgia falls all the way here, the best way to get both of those teams back in the Georgia Dome for a second time this year is to have them play each other. The two rivals last meet in 2003. Since the bowl will pretty much have to take Clemson, I would guess they would take Georgia or Mississippi State over a rematch for the Tigers with South Carolina. Oh, and yeah, of the other three ACC teams, they would almost have to take NC State even though they just fired their coach. I just can’t see a 6-6 VPI or a 6-7 Georgia Tech in this game.

Liberty Bowl
Pick: C-USA champion vs. SEC#8/9 or Big East #5/6
Prediction: Central Florida vs. Louisiana-Monroe?
Possibilities: Tulsa, any other bowl eligible team
Provided there’s no shenanigans like there were last year, the C-USA champion (either UCF or Tulsa) will go here. The at-large replacement on the other side is a guess.

Sun Bowl
Pick: ACC #4 vs. Pac-12 #4
Prediction: Georgia Tech vs. Southern California
Possibilities: North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Washington, Arizona State, Arizona
Since there are enough bowl eligible teams at this point, Georgia Tech will not automatically qualify at 6-7 under the NCAA’s new rules to make up a shortfall of teams. This means they will need a waiver, a la UCLA last year, to still go to a bowl if they lose the ACC title game. If they do get the waiver, most signs seem to point toward the ACC stipulation that the title game loser cannot fall past here will still apply, meaning GT will be back here for the second year in a row. If GT does not get the waiver, or is selected by the Chick-fil-a or Russell Athletic Bowls, then that opens the door for the other three ACC teams listed here. (I don’t think FSU will fall this far if they lose.) On the Pac-12 side, I think it’s mostly a tossup, though I doubt the Sun will be able to resist the siren call of the USC brand name. Arizona could be the strongest possibility, though, since they’re the only Pac-12 of these four that ended their season on a positive note.

Music City Bowl
Pick: SEC #7 vs. ACC #6
Prediction: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech
Possibilities: Mississippi State, Mississippi, Duke
The Music City Bowl is praying the Gator Bowl takes Vanderbilt, but if they don’t I think they will have no choice but to take Vandy over a 6-6 Ole Miss. At this point in the ACC process, it will either be VPI or Duke here, so they’re really hoping the Belk Bowl takes Duke as well.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Pick: Big 12 #4 vs. Big Ten #5
Prediction: Texas Tech vs. Michigan State
Possibilities: West Virginia, Texas Christian, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
I don’t think Oklahoma State or Texas could in up here, so that leaves just the other potential 7-5 Big 12 teams. From the Big Ten side, it will probably be one of the 6-6 teams, as I doubt Wisconsin will free fall all the way here if they lose the Big Ten title game.

Alamo Bowl
Pick: Pac-12 #2 vs. Big 12 #3
Prediction: California-Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma State
Possibilities: Stanford, Oregon State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas
If UCLA upsets Stanford Friday, then the Cardinal could fall out of the BCS and land here. Otherwise, it will likely be a choice between UCLA and Oregon State. The Alamo may actually favor the Beavers here, since the most likely scenario is that UCLA is about to get blown out again by Stanford. On the Big 12 side, if K-State or OU falls out of the BCS, they could fall all the way here if the Cotton sticks with Oklahoma State or Texas. Otherwise, the Alamo will probably take whoever the Cotton doesn’t.

Fight Hunger Bowl
Pick: Pac-12 #6 vs. Navy
Prediction: Arizona State vs. Navy**
Possibilities: Arizona, Washington, Southern California
Any of the 7-5 Pac-12 teams could slide down here, though I think the most likely one to do is Arizona State. Navy has already accepted a bid to this game.

Pinstripe Bowl
Pick: Big 12 #7 vs. Big East #4
Prediction: Iowa State vs. Syracuse
Possibilities: Baylor, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, some other Big East team depending on how it shakes out
A big thing these days is “eating local”, and it’s likely the committee of this New York based bowl wants to get Rutgers or Syracuse if at all possible. Chances are they’ll end up with the Orange. On the Big 12 side, they’ll likely be choosing between 6-6 Iowa State or 6-6 Baylor. WVU could fall here too.

Armed Forces Bowl
Pick: C-USA #2/3/4/5/6 vs. Mountain West #3
Prediction: Southern Methodist vs. Air Force*
Possibilities: any other bowl eligible non-champion Conference USA team, any eligible at-large team
Air Force has already accepted a bid to this game.

Car Care Bowl
Pick: Big 12 #6 vs. Big Ten #6
Prediction: Texas Christian vs. Minnesota
Possibilities: Texas Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, Michigan State
At the end of the day, this seems the most likely.

Russell Athletic Bowl
Pick: Big East #2 vs. ACC #3
Prediction: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina State
Possibilities: Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Florida State
On the Big East side, it’s most likely any of them except Syracuse really. On the ACC side, they will probably stick with NC State given their other choices unless FSU is available.

Independence Bowl
Pick: ACC #7 vs. SEC #9
Prediction: Louisiana Tech? vs. Western Kentucky?
Possibilities: any bowl eligible at-large team
I have no idea for this once, since neither the ACC nor SEC will have enough teams. I’ve seen reports they really want the extra Big 12 team, but given the Heart of Dallas thing I doubt that’ll happen unless the Big 12 only gets one team into the BCS.

Holiday Bowl
Pick: Pac-12 #3 vs. Big 12 #5
Prediction: Oregon State vs. West Virginia
Possibilities: UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Texas Tech, Texas Christian
Basically, whichever Pac-12 team the Alamo doesn’t take will end up here. Holiday Bowl officials are really hoping the Alamo takes UCLA, though. Note that if UCLA goes to the Rose Bowl or Oregon is the odd team out in the BCS (or both) they could end up with Oregon or Stanford. On the Big 12 side, it basically depends on which of TTU, WVU, and TCU is left from the bowls in front of them.

Belk Bowl
Pick: ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
Prediction: Duke vs. Louisville
Possibilities: Virginia Tech, NC State, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Syracuse
The Belk has, to the frustration of many other ACC teams over years, generally preferred to pick a team from North Carolina. Since this is Duke’s first bowl game in two decades, it figures that they might actually get the nod here over VPI. NC State will go here if they are still available. As for the Big East, well, it’s still the Big East.

Military Bowl
Pick: ACC #8 vs. Army
Prediction: Ball State? vs. San Jose State?
Possibilities: any other eligible at-large team
Army will not qualify, and the ACC doesn’t have enough bowl eligible teams to get a team here

Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl
Pick: Big Ten #8 vs. MAC #1
Prediction: Middle Tennessee State? vs. Northern Illinois
Possibilities: any bowl eligible Sun Belt team (as a contractual backup for the Big Ten), Kent State
There is a chance Kent State could win the MAC title game still end up here. On the Big Ten side, there aren’t enough Big Ten teams. The Sun Belt has an agreement with the bowl to provide teams in this case.

Hawaii Bowl
Pick: C-USA #2/3/4/5/6 vs. MWC #4
Prediction: East Carolina vs. Fresno State
Possibilities: any other non-champ C-USA team, any eligible at-large team, Boise State, San Diego State
The C-USA team that lands here, if one even does, is pretty much a toss-up. On the Mountain West side Fresno will likely be the team left at this point. I have to say, having a bowl game in Hawaii has probably been pretty well proven at this point to be a much better idea on paper than in execution.

Las Vegas Bowl
Pick: Pac-12 #5 vs. MWC #1
Prediction: Washington vs. Boise State
Possibilities: Southern California, Arizona, Arizona State, Fresno State, San Diego State
Note that “MWC #1” is not the same as “MWC champion”, in this case it very much means that this bowl just gets the first choice of Mountain West teams. I would guess they’ll take Boise, with Fresno as the second strongest possibility. On the Pac-12 side, it’s basically whoever they want from the gaggle of 7-5 teams after the Sun Bowl gets their pick. Arizona is also a strong candidate here.

New Orleans Bowl
Pick: C-USA #2/3/4/5/6 vs. Sun Belt #1
Prediction: Rice vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**
Possibilities: any other non-champion C-USA team
Note that the Ragin’ Cajuns have already accepted a bid to this game.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
Pick: C-USA #2/3/4/5/6 vs. Big East #5/6
Prediction: Tulsa vs. Pittsburgh
Possibilities: any other non-champion C-USA team, any eligible Sun Belt team, any eligible MAC team
If Pittsburgh qualifies, I think they will end up here, but they could also go to the BBVA Compass Bowl. This could very easily turn into a MAC-Sun Belt matchup though.

Poinsettia Bowl
Pick: BYU vs. MWC #2
Prediction: BYU** vs. San Diego State
Possibilities: Boise State, Fresno State
BYU is already locked in. On the Mountain West side, if the Vegas bowl doesn’t take Boise the Poinsettia could, but I figure they like SDSU the best.

Potato Bowl
Pick: WAC vs. MAC #3
Prediction: Utah State** vs. Toledo
Possibilities: Ball State, Ohio, Bowling Green State
Utah State accepted the WAC’s last ever bowl bid. On the MAC side, I’d think they’d prefer either of the 9-3 teams or the MAC title game loser if the GoDaddy.com Bowl doesn’t take them.

New Mexico Bowl
Pick: Pac-12 #7 vs. MWC #5
Prediction: Arizona vs. Nevada**
Possibilities: Arizona State, Washington, Southern California
Whichever Pac-12 team is left from the above bowls goes here. Nevada has already accepted a bid.

Okay, it’s that time again folks. The picture is starting to get clearer, or it would be, expect it seems to have decided to actually get cloudier if anything as we’re now only two weekends away from the end of the season and there is still a very real chance we won’t have enough teams.

However, as usual, let’s start at the opposite end of the spectrum. The predictions are, as per usual, here.

BCS
Oregon losing to Stanford had all sorts of repercussions for the BCS bowls, and not just at the very top.

Starting with the National Championship Game, I’ve gone ahead and matched Notre Dame and Alabama. Of course, this is beset with all sorts of caveats. The number of games that could impact #1 and #2 before the end of the season are almost too numerous to list.

#1 is easy, though, given the following: if Notre Dame beats Southern Cal this weekend in Los Angeles, the Irish will make their first ever appearance in the national title game. If Notre Dame loses, well, all hell breaks loose. The specter of another SEC-SEC matchup looms extremely large. But for now, let’s go with what happens if Notre Dame wins.

Alabama will not lose to Auburn this weekend. I just can’t even entertain the possibility of it happening, unless Gene Chizik is just trying to pull the most epic practical joke in the history of the state of Alabama. An easier explanation is just that Chizik is as awful of a coach as everyone thought he was when Auburn inexplicably hired him away from Iowa State. As for Georgia at #3, well, I think anyone reading this by now knows my positions re: the Bulldogs, but nonetheless they will play Alabama for the SEC title next weekend in Atlanta. Provided neither team loses this weekend, this matchup is currently a play-in game for the national title game.

Okay, so what happens if the things everyone expects to happen don’t? Well… let’s start with what happens if Notre Dame loses and the eventual SEC champion does not lose this weekend. Sitting at #4 in the BCS standings currently is Florida. If Florida beats Florida State Saturday, then they’re in. If the Gators lose (a very real possibility), then it gets interesting. The remaining 1-loss teams at the top of the standings are Oregon, Kansas State, Stanford, and Florida State. (I skipped LSU and Texas A&M. While they’re still high in the polls, the scenarios for human voters to elevate a 2-loss team to the national title game this year just seem too remote right now.) Oregon has one game remaining against their ranked rival Oregon State. Kansas State plays Texas next weekend, which is good because it is a) next weekend (a win would be fresh in voter’s minds, especially since Oregon will likely not play in the Pac-12 title game) and b) it is against a resurgent and ranked Texas. Also c) K-State still holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma in the Big 12, so they will still be conference champs. Additionally d) the computers still love K-State and they like Texas, so a win over the Longhorns would help them. For these reasons, even if Oregon beats Oregon State, I like the Wildcats to jump the Ducks if Notre Dame and Florida lose. Next up is Stanford, which now controls its own destiny in the Pac-12. They will play UCLA this weekend, and if they win, well, they get to play UCLA again next Saturday. Playing two more games is good, and they did beat the Ducks head-to-head, but they are still 11th in the human polls. Nonetheless, they could be the next up if Oregon and K-State lose. If K-State loses and Oregon doesn’t, that could be an interesting battle. Finally, there’s Florida State. FSU desperately needs the cred they’ll get from the computers if they beat Florida, which will give their computer ranking a chance to catch up to their human ranking (6th and 5th versus 17th, currently). FSU’s schedule and loss to a mediocre NC State are really screwing them over right now. A win over GT in the conference championship game, whether we’re 6-6 or 7-5, would probably be their 3rd or 4th best win of the season behind Florida and Clemson.

So let’s get back to ND-Bama in the national title game and look at the other bowls. First up will be the Sugar Bowl, seeking a replacement for Alabama. I think it is pretty unlikely the Sugar will take the SEC title game loser, and at this point, considering the hype around TAMU and Johnny Manziel, I think the Sugar will take Texas A&M. Next up is the Fiesta. Kansas State will go here if they beat Texas and don’t wind up back in the title game. And here’s where the ramifications begin. If Oregon beats Oregon State (and, well, maybe even if they don’t), they will likely end up here. Note that this now means there will be two Pac-12 teams in, as I have Stanford winning the league and facing Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar needs another team, and basically will be picking between Oklahoma and Clemson. And this where the ramifications end up: what looked like a great possibility for the ACC until last weekend has been snuffed out, unless Oregon, Kansas State, or Stanford get into the national title game. I just don’t think the Sugar will pick Clemson over the Sooners. This relegates, as expected, the Big East winner (whoever they end up being) to the Orange.

All that said, man, there’s definitely a certain plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose vibe to Notre Dame and Alabama playing for a national title. As other observers have noted, it’s like we’re back in the 60’s or something.

Anyway.

ACC
Miami announced on Monday that they will, once again, forgo a trip to a postseason college football contest. The ACC will not, under any circumstance, have a team to send to the Military Bowl. If Wake Forest upsets Vanderbilt this weekend, then there could be a team send to the Independence Bowl, but otherwise that’s that. If Clemson doesn’t make the BCS, they are a lock for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. The Russell Athletic Bowl will have its hands tied and probably take NC State. This likely leaves Georgia Tech for the Sun Bowl. If GT does beat UGA, then this could all change, but if we don’t, then El Paso is likely our destination again (even if we qualify under the “UCLA rule”). For the first time in the history of everything (in football, at least) I have put Duke ahead of Virginia Tech and have them going to the Belk Bowl, leaving VPI for the Music City.

I just want to note up here that I have Georgia Tech playing Southern Cal in the Sun Bowl. To quote James Earl Jones from the widely acclaimed Cold War drama Hunt for Red October, “Mother of God.”

Big East
Do I have to? Okay, well, I’m guessing Louisville will still win the league and go to the Orange Bowl, putting Rutgers in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, and then Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I project Nebraska to win the Big Ten and head to the Rose Bowl, but that could just as easily be Wisconsin. That said, I do have Michigan in the Capital One Bowl for now, relegating Wisconsin to the Outback. I’ve seen folks saying that Northwestern is probably headed to the Gator, so I went ahead and put them there. I also have Purdue getting in at 6-6, but otherwise the selection order goes pretty much how you’d expect for now.

Big 12
With both Oklahoma and K-State BCS bound according to my projections at top, this puts Texas in the Cotton. Since I ran out of teams, I did change my projections to have Baylor beat Texas Tech this weekend so the Bears could get to 6-6. That probably means I should’ve swapped Texas Tech and West Virginia maybe, but I think the Red Raiders will still be okay for the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. (I’m debating shortening that to just “Wings Bowl” but I’m not sure.)

Pac-12
The Pac-12 actually was in danger of having more teams than slots until this past weekend. Getting two teams into the BCS means bids for everyone. The question is, out of the remaining teams, who goes to the Alamo Bowl? While it almost certainly has to be Oregon State and UCLA, will the Alamo want a team that just lost its last two games to the same team? In my searching, I found the Holiday Bowl really wants Oregon State over UCLA. I went ahead and swapped them for now but we’ll see again next weekend. In any scenario, I think the two Arizona schools will get picked last, but which one goes to San Francisco and which goes to Albuquerque will probably be determined this weekend. As for the middle, well, the Sun can either pick USC or Washington probably, with the other going to the Las Vegas Bowl.

SEC
I think the loser of the SEC title game will probably wind up in the Capital One Bowl, or Texas A&M if they’re still available. If TAMU is still around when the Cotton Bowl comes up, then they are a lock, otherwise it’ll probably be LSU. I’m putting Florida in the Outback Bowl (assuming a loss to Florida State this weekend). I currently have Miss State in the Chick-fil-a Bowl, though I’m not super confident in the Bulldogs over the Gamecocks, but the latter’s final destination likely has a lot to do with how they do against Clemson this weekend. Assuming a loss, I have them in the Gator Bowl. I put Vanderbilt in the Music City, but they would really love it if Missouri or Ole Miss get eligible somehow.

Everyone Else
As mentioned above, I ran out of teams, so I put used my “in case of emergency, break glass” team in the form of the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners, putting them in the Independence Bowl. I also have the Military Bowl and the BBVA Compass Bowl as being completely devoid of participants. And this all includes the fudging I did to get Baylor eligible. I had to a fair amount of swapping to make sure that two MAC teams weren’t facing each other in the games, but at this point I really consider myself two teams short.

Also, in other news, Air Force actually accepted a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl earlier this week, which I guess is a pretty good indication the Mountain West doesn’t have any sort of rules for their bowls. I didn’t really predict that, hence the single asterisk.

Well, this is a pretty long post, and there’s a fair chance all of this could be bunk after this weekend. So I’ll stop here. Enjoy your Turkey Day, and the weekend guide should go up tomorrow.

Well, it just wouldn’t do have the This Weekend in College Football up before the end of the bowl predictions are. The predictions themselves have been up since Sunday, but unfortunately I haven’t had a chance to write anything yet. So here’s some thing quick, focusing mainly on the BCS situation.

I have Oregon and Kansas State in the title game, and note also that I have Oregon in the #1 slot. I still think that if they go undefeated over their remaining schedule (Stanford, Oregon State, and the Pac-12 South winner) they will gain enough favor with the computers to pass Kansas State. So let’s talk about the other BCS bowls.

Though some think Louisiana Tech has a shot, they have no currency with the computers and little chance to gain it. They also need a whole bunch of teams in front of them to lose. It’s not impossible that they enter the Top 16 and pass the Big East or Big Ten winner, but it’s improbable.

So let’s get to the automatic winners: Alabama (SEC, Sugar), Florida State (ACC, Orange), and Nebraska (Big Ten, Rose). With the first selection from the at-large pool, the Rose is likely to take Notre Dame now, especially if the Irish remain undefeated. (If Notre Dame loses, then they could take Oklahoma.) With the second selection is the Fiesta, and I think if they’re available they’ll take Oklahoma. The Fiesta also gets the next pick from the at-large pool. After ND and Oklahoma, the remaining candidates are less obvious. We have a gaggle of SEC teams, from which only one can be chosen, a one-or-two loss Clemson, and Louisville. On the fringes are a few three-loss teams, like Oregon State and Stanford, but I really don’t think they’ll be selected. Basically, given the above scenario, I think the Fiesta will take any available 1-loss SEC team. Right now I am still projecting that team to be Florida. LSU, South Carolina, and a three-loss Texas A&M are also in the mix. (Note that UGA is not.) The Sugar at this point will want someone other than Louisville, but by now the only other possible someone is Clemson, who can still make it with two-losses but they will be doing themselves a huge favor if they beat South Carolina. And finally, Louisville goes to Miami.

Otherwise, the rest of the grid is still very much in flux these last couple of weeks. This week I had exactly 70 teams qualify for a bowl. Good news for the MAC, WAC and Sun Belt, but not so good for nervous bowl commissioners.

Notable matchups:

• Cotton Bowl, Texas A&M vs. Texas: I’m perhaps just blinded by the potential of this, but it almost just has to happen, doesn’t it? Fortunately Texas has been playing well enough recently to get there. That said, it also depends on where TAMU gets up to – does the Capital One Bowl get frisky and take them? What about a BCS bowl even, as ESPN’s Brad Edwards predicted? If TAMU does fall to to the Cotton, I am almost certain they would take them over LSU at this point.
• Fiesta Bowl, Oklahoma vs. Florida: a matchup of a team with a good offense versus a team whose best offense literally is their defense.
• Potato Bowl, Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois: this game would be the way any game played on blue turf in the late afternoon of the first day of bowl games: chock full o’ points, as the NIU ground game meets LaTech’s Air Raid attack.

Don’t forget to have a look at a5’s rundown of the ACC Coastal’s tiebreaker scenarios, and otherwise, enjoy the remaining portion of the week!

Welcome back. The predictions are up, and we’re only three weeks away now from the final set of predictions. I did attempt to search for news, but there’s not much action going on there yet except for a few stray beat writers and the rest of the Internet’s so-called “predictions”. Pschaw.

A quick note on methodology: remember, this is not a snapshot, but rather predictions on where teams will be at the end of the season. Hence why we’ve got Alabama and Oregon in the title game.

Quick note before we begin: with their 24-17 victory over Florida Atlantic, Navy reached the 6 win mark and accepted a bid to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

BCS
Let’s start at the top. I am still projecting Oregon, if they win out, to pass Kansas State in the BCS. I doubt at this point they will actually completely pass Kansas State in the computers, but rather just gain enough ground to let their #2 ranking in both human polls buoy them to the top.

Other than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State, at-large locks for BCS bids are likely Florida (provided Georgia doesn’t lose to Auburn this weekend and they do lose to Alabama in the SEC title game), Florida State (provided they win the ACC title game, or with an at-large bid assured if they beat Florida), Oklahoma (if they win out). I am still agreeing with some other analysts that the Rose will play nice and take Oklahoma, which they will probably be more inclined to do if Nebraska is the Big Ten’s champion. This would allow the Fiesta to match Notre Dame against Kansas State. At this point, if Florida does not lose to Florida State (or anyone else), they will likely head to the Sugar Bowl as Alabama’s replacement. If they do stumble, then you could see Georgia or South Carolina there.

Louisville, or whoever bothers to win the Big East, is the last automatic qualifier. This leaves a mess for the last possible at-large spot. As noted last week, Boise State was in position to do this by finishing ahead of Nebraska in the BCS standings, but they lost to San Diego State. There is a two-team-per-conference limit, so none of the various SEC teams littering the top 14 can qualify. A strong candidate, if everything were to be done today, would be Oregon State, but I have them losing twice to end up at 9-3. I also have Stanford losing to Oregon, putting them at 9-3. USC could have as many as five losses at this point if they end up playing in the Pac-12 title game. This leaves only one potential 1 or 2 loss team: Clemson. Provided Clemson doesn’t pull a Clemson against Maryland or NC State, they will head into their game against South Carolina at 10-1. If they win, they will wrap up an at-large bid. At this point, given the rest of my projections, even if they lose to the Gamecocks they will still be 10-2 and more palatable than, say, a 10-2 Rutgers. For those of keeping score at home, yes, this would be the first time ever the ACC has sent two teams to the BCS. They would likely be selected by the Sugar, leaving Louisville to play FSU in the Orange.

ACC
With Clemson off to the promised land, this leaves the rest of the ACC’s bowl partners in rather unenviable positions. The Chick-fil-a would almost certainly go with an 8-4/5 Miami, and the Russell Athletic Bowl snapping up NC State. I have no other ACC teams projected to finish with winning records, with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finishing 6-6. (Well, UNC should finish 8-4, but they’re on sanctions.) And even then, that’s with a rather heavy dose of optimism on my part, because I’m sure not crazy about our chances against Carolina this weekend. Either way, I’m sending VPI to the Sun, us to the Belk, and Duke to the Music City.

Big 12
I was able to put Texas back into the Cotton Bowl, but I couldn’t quite arrange things to put Texas A&M into the game as well. I also put Texas Tech into the Alamo over Oklahoma State, but everything else proceeds in order from there. In a rarity, the Big 12 will actually have enough teams, even with two of them going to the BCS.

Big East
Please, someone, anyone, win this thing, but preferably a team that hasn’t lost to anyone from the MAC.

Big Ten
Iowa’s loss to Indiana (Indiana!) this past weekend probably wrecks the chances of everyone in the Legends division qualifying. Unfortunately, I still don’t have Indiana getting to 6-6, so Wisconsin remains the only eligible team from the Leaders. Minnesota can thank their incredibly soft out-of-conference scheduling for getting them to the new Car Care Bowl despite going 2-6 in Big Ten play.

Pac-12
The infighting in the conference wrecks their chances of getting two BCS teams, unless Stanford or Oregon State upset Oregon in the next few weeks. Otherwise, I actually have Arizona as a 7-5 team with nowhere to go. The projections for at-large teams in other bowls is a total crapshoot until officials of the affected bowls start talking about who they’re looking at (which one of the reason I start looking for news), so for now I’m shipping the Wildcats off to Shreveport to make up for a lack of ACC teams.

SEC
Thanks to generous out-of-conference schedules and some really awful teams at the bottom of the conference, the SEC should get 5 teams to the 10-win mark this year. I had to put 10-2 LSU in the Cotton over 9-3 Texas A&M, but that could still change in the coming weeks. I also have Tennessee limping to 6-6 ad a Liberty Bowl bid, though they could also go to the Compass Bowl.

Everyone Else
It does look like we will avert the shortage of teams catastrophe. It just seems to “work out” every year, but someday it probably won’t. As much as I like doing these projections, frankly if we had 5 less bowls I don’t think anyone would notice. Also, with Boise not making the BCS, this pushes 6-6 New Mexico out of the Mountain West affiliated bowls. Along with 6-6 Western Michigan, they could be the only two eligible teams sitting at home this year.

As usual, things will look different next week. After the excitement of last weekend, the marquee game for the top teams this weekend will be Alabama-Texas A&M. But, hey, more on that later in the week.

It’s that time again. Predictions are up at the usual place. Things have changed a bit since the first two weeks. Heading into the final month of the season, most teams only have four games left and the picture starts to become clearer for many teams in hovering the 5 to 7 win mark. Of course, we also have new complications due to thinks like Oklahoma and USC losing again. So let’s start with the BCS.

BCS
Like many other prognosticators, I still have Alabama and Oregon as my #1 and #2. Oregon’s schedule (plus the Pac-12 title game) should help them out in the computers. Notre Dame should slip in the machine rankings over the final weeks of the season, especially if USC loses again (which they will at least once). Kansas State will be a tougher nut to crack, but Oregon will remain #2 in both human polls if they win out, and again, they have the benefit of playing a 13th game. (Though it is worth noting the Pac-12 title game and Kansas State will both be on Saturday, December 1, so there isn’t a “one of the teams didn’t play the past week” advantage.)

Florida may have actually improved their chances of going to a BCS game by missing out on the SEC title game. I still think they will win out, including a win over my predicted ACC champion Florida State. If Florida only has one loss and does not play in the SEC title game (thus meaning they won’t lose to Alabama), I still like them to go to the Sugar.

The Rose Bowl is a bigger question. Nebraska’s win over Michigan this past weekend makes them the Big Ten frontrunners, so I’ll put them in the Rose. However, with an at-least two-loss Nebraska there, does the Rose gain anything by taking Notre Dame, or will they defer to the Fiesta and pick-up Oklahoma? Nebraska-Oklahoma was once one the biggest rivalries in the sport and the two teams have not played since 2010. Either way, with USC’s loss to Arizona State this weekend, it does not look like there will be a Pac-12 runner up worthy of BCS consideration.

If the Rose does pass on an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame, then they will definitely snapped up by the Fiesta to play a jilted Kansas State. I actually have ND going undefeated now, but if everything breaks as explained above it won’t matter.

New to the predictions this week is Boise State. Boise sits at #19 in the current BCS rankings, three spots away from the promised land provided they don’t lose and finish ahead of the Big Ten champion (which they currently will). Boise is split in the human polls, with the coaches putting them at #14 and Harris at #17. It stands to reason they’ll pick up a couple spots in the Harris poll if they don’t lose, and maybe even pick up a couple more spots in some of the computers (two of which don’t even have them in their top 25’s). Either way, if Boise makes it them they will go to the Orange and Louisville will be in the Sugar.

Possibly even more interesting is what happens if Boise doesn’t make it, however. I’m not entirely sure they will, and I very, very nearly put Clemson in the Sugar. It could happen, especially if they beat a now-depleted South Carolina in their last game of the season. The BCS feels almost like it was counting on always having at least two Big Ten and two SEC teams every year. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and entirely too-many SEC teams at the top of the polls, this creates a logjam of teams near the fringes that could get in.

ACC
FSU is in the driver’s seat of the ACC. Less clear is just who the heck will win the Coastal. I have Miami pulling it off, finally setting up the FSU-Miami ACC title game that the conference bigwigs envisioned all those years ago when they set up the divisions and picked Florida cities for the original title games. Even as title game losers, I like Miami for the Russel Athletic Bowl. Clemson and NC State should follow into the Chick-fil-a and Sun Bowls. I have three Coastal at 6-6, including Virginia Tech, Duke, and probably entirely too optimistically at this point, Georgia Tech. I put those three into the Belk, Independence, and Music City, respectively.

Big 12
I finally have to give up on my dream of Texas playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I project Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to finish ahead of the Longhorns in the conference, which just makes the notion too infeasible at this point. I put TTU in the Cotton, and then the Cowboys into the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Texas is relegated to the Alamo. The Holiday Bowl could be fun again with my projected matchup of West Virginia and Southern Cal. I also have Iowa State and TCU making in at 6-6, but I put Baylor at 4-8.

Big East
Well, Louisville hasn’t lost to a MAC team yet so they’re the Big East frontrunners now. New this week is 6-6 Syracuse sneaking in, but I couldn’t put them into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I have Nebraska going 10-2, but remember, Wisconsin just as easily win the Big Ten title game, which I have them entering at 8-4. Either way, the Badgers may be the only eligible team from the Leaders division that even makes it to 6-6 or better, though Indiana or Purdue could do it, at least in theory. The Legends compensates by getting everyone eligible, even Minnesota, which thanks to a generous schedule can go 2-6 in the Big Ten and still make a bowl.

Pac-12
USC’s loss this past weekend makes it very difficult for me to project them beating Oregon and Notre Dame. I now have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 South. Stanford could finish 9-3 but I don’t think losing to Oregon in November will help their BCS chances. I actually even have Utah sneaking in at 6-6, after upsetting Cal this past weekend.

SEC
I already talked about the very top of the SEC, so let’s focus on the runners up. I don’t have Georgia or South Carolina losing again, except for the former in the SEC title game. Nonetheless, I put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl because South Carolina played there last year. Everything else was pretty much going down the line. I do have Tennessee sneaking at 6-6. Hey, they’ve done it before.

That’s pretty much it for this week. Next week I’ll incorporate news into the projections, which especially helps sort out my guesses for bowls that won’t get their contractually obligated teams (read: the Military and BBVA Compass bowls).