Category Archives: bowl games

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 6

It’s that time once again. Or, by most measures, it’s about time it’s that time once again. Anyway, the predictions are here. Let’s get started.

  • First, since I waited so long to do this, my prediction that Texas would lose to TAMU has come to pass, meaning that they will not be in a bowl game for the first time since 1997. Which got me to thinking: I’ve been doing this thing since 1999, so what teams have been in every edition of the predictions? Well, the list isn’t very long: Florida State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Oklahoma.
  • The BCS is a mess right now. For starters, I think I’m the only person on the Internet who thinks Auburn is going to win, so I have them in the title game. I also still have Boise and TCU in, though I think Boise will pass TCU. I have a pretty good idea what the Rose and Sugar will do (take their obligatory non-AQ hit and take a Big Ten team, respectively) but after that I’m not sure. The Orange, however, surely doesn’t cherish either of it’s options: take a faraway at-large like TCU or Stanford, or take whichever 4-loss team emerges from the Big East. I think they’ll bite the bullet and take Pitt (or UConn, or WVU, or whoever it is) leaving the final potential PR nightmare to the Fiesta. I almost think they have to take TCU at this point. But since I seem to differ from everyone else on the Internet on this I could be wrong.
  • At this point in the year, there’s enough solid rumors that I stop guessing as much and try to find as much information for each bowl as I can. This harder than it may seem, because for at least half the bowls no one really cares. (Search for “New Orleans Bowl” in Google news and see what you get. Not much.) Generally, team beat writers and hometown papers for the bowls are the best sources, as they generally talk to bowl commissioners and have at least an idea of what their bowl prospects are. This enabled me to make at least once correction this week, as I moved Alabama from the Cotton to the Capital One Bowl, which triggered a huge shift in the way I was allocating the SEC bids.
  • There’s some potential shenanigans with the Liberty Bowl, but for now I’m going with C-USA vs. SEC. I favor the Liberty over the Compass for now since the Liberty has a higher payout.
  • No idea where Notre Dame is going to end up. If they upset USC then they could steal a spot from the Big East and into the Champs Sports Bowl, but otherwise they’ll probably be the most attractive prize among the 6-6 at-larges. We’ll know more Sunday.
  • The only teams that have been invited so far are marked with double asterisks, and they are Navy, Hawaii, and Army.
  • For Georgia Tech, everything hinges on beating UGA. If we (somehow) win, then I could see us in the Music City Bowl, and I’ve even heard the words “Champs Sports” being tossed around though I really doubt they will take us above Miami or NC State. (Especially Miami if they get Notre Dame.) Lose and it’s pretty bleak. The Independence is probably a best-case scenario, as the only other remaining teams at that point are likely us, Maryland, and Boston College. I would think the Military Bowl would take Maryland. I don’t really know why the Independence would take BC over us, but you never know.
  • Remember how the Pac-10 only got two teams into the NCAA tournament last March (and only because Cal lost in the Pac-10 title game)? Well, they’re trying that again here. Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona are locks to make bowls, but outside of that really only the winner of the Washington-California game has a chance of making it to 6 wins. USC would be in a game but they are, of course, ineligible. Which is a real bummer, as I’m all for the Pac-10’s round robin conference schedule, but a few more teams would definitely be in if that 9th game were replaced by Portland State.
  • There’s probably just enough action next weekend to hold off the vast majority of invites because of conference title games and the uncertainty of who will get into the BCS. So this will one come down to the wire, to say the least.

Enjoy rivalry weekend, folks!

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 5

It’s week 5, do you know where your bowl predictions are?

  • In the BCS, I don’t think anyone’s going to catch Auburn or Oregon unless something happens in regards to Cam Newton. The Cal game was likely an aberration for the Ducks, and they should be able to get back on track.
  • But what happens if either loses? That’s very interesting, to say the least. It looks very likely now Boise will catch and pass TCU, so I have put Boise in the Rose. But remember, only one of these teams is guaranteed a BCS berth. I don’t think the BCS would want to face the backlash of excluding TCU if they go undefeated. Also, I don’t know what options looks all that more appealing than TCU to the Orange or Fiesta bowls. Basically, the last two BCS slots (presumably the Sugar will take whichever team loses the Big Ten’s Rose Bowl tiebreaker, right now I have this as a 1-loss Ohio State) will be down to Pittsburgh (or whoever wins the Big East), TCU, a 2-loss Nebraska (or whoever the loser of the Big 12 title game is), and a 1-loss Stanford. The Orange may just fall on the sword and take Pitt or whoever that’s going to be, leaving the Fiesta with a Big 12 team that just lost its title game, a Stanford fan base that isn’t known for its size or willingness to travel, or an undefeated TCU.
  • I’ve been projecting 3-4 extra teams the past weeks, which bodes well for the possible doomsday scenarios. However, with attendance down all over college football this year I think some of these bowls are going to lose a ton of money this year, which may allow us to get back to a reasonable number. May.
  • Let me rant about the Big East again. It’s mid-November, and most teams haven’t played more than 4 conference games. This makes it such a pain to predict, especially when you have the only obvious frontrunner go and lose to UConn. That said, Notre Dame being relatively dreadful this year will at least let them send a team to the Champs Sports Bowl. Probably.
  • Army clinched their berth in the Armed Forces Bowl last weekend. They will likely not play a Mountain West team there, but they could (I should probably check the payouts on that). For now I’ve slotted SMU there, since it’s being played at their home stadium.
  • For my fellow Georgia Tech fans, it’s not looking good. Basically, here’s how I view it: beat Duke and UGA and we could get up to the Music City. Go 1-1 and probably end up in Shreveport, with an outside shot of ending up in San Francisco, though as bad as GT’s travel reputation is at least we’re south of the Ohio River, unlike Boston College.
  • The Alamo Bowl paid up the big bucks to take the slot formerly occupied by the Holiday Bowl, and boy, if they get the Stanford-Nebraska matchup I’m predicting there could be some fireworks in that game.

Bowl Games 2009: The Entirely Too Late Post-Mortem

Perhaps a post-mortem might better describe what needs to be done on this entire site, but hey, with college football season over there’s less for me to post about. (Also, the immediate post-Fiesta funk didn’t help.)

At any rate, I’ve uploaded the final update for 2009. I went 17-17, that is, 50%. I just never really got going in terms of predictions and ended up with a thoroughly mediocre year.

In other news, I’ve started on the 2010 guide, but it’ll be a few months before the two new bowls (Yankee and Dallas) are approved by the NCAA. Also, dates and times for most bowls probably won’t be announced until August or so. To answer the two questions that should spring immediately to your mind: 1) Yes, that would make 36 total bowl games, which means now 60% of Division I-A football teams will now play in the post-season and 2) Yes, the title game is January 10th for some dumb reason. Even the NCAA itself isn’t really trying anymore, as they’ve recently moved the DI-AA title game from Chattanooga to Friscoe, TX and into January as well.

Look for the OOC schedule revue to start up later this month, and perhaps an outside shot at some college basketball and baseball posts as well.

Bowl Games 2009: The Last One

Here it is, folks, the last game of college football until September. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday, January 7
8:00: Alabama vs. Texas (BCS Championship Game @ Pasadena, CA; ABC): As much as I would love to pick Texas here, it’s very difficult to actually do so. Let me rehash the things you’ve read everywhere else: Texas’s offense struggled against the only two teams they played that had good defenses (Oklahoma and especially Nebraska), no one besides McCoy can run the ball effectively, and while Texas sports a competent defense themselves, so did Florida and yet they couldn’t keep Alabama out of the end zone well enough for the tight contest this probably will be.
However, something I’ve seen a lot of so far this bowl season is rust, that is, teams coming out flat, offenses struggling early in games, etc. (And if you think it’s bad now, next year’s title game will be on the 10th. Ugh.) This could work in either or neither team’s favor, but if the stars align and Alabama’s defense comes out slow and lets Texas put a couple of quick scores up that will change the entire complexion of this game. I don’t rate the chances of that happening very high, but I think that’s what the Longhorns have to hope for.

Previous meetings: These two teams have met before, but despite their historical dominance Alabama is actually winless in this series (0-7-1, to be exact). They haven’t faced off since the 1981/82 Cotton Bowl.
Last bowl game: Alabama, quite satisfyingly, lost last year’s Sugar Bowl to Utah, 31-17, while Texas won their BCS game (the Fiesta) 24-21, over Ohio State.

To wrap up my bowl prognostications, I’m 16 of 33 (or about 48.5%). By my standards, that’s pretty bad. While it’s not quite the debacle of 2005, I still prefer to be at least in the upper 50’s. I also ran an ESPN Bowl Mania group among my friends this year. I came in 6th, which was good for dead last. I currently have 250 points and will finish last regardless of tonight’s result. So props to my friend Will (whose particular brand of insight has appeared here before) for running away with the asimsports Bowl Mania Group crown, with a straight-up record of 22-11 and 388 points heading into tonight.

Anyway, I hope you’ve enjoyed my brand of “analysis” here on asimsports this college football season. While I’ll certainly try to talk about baseball more this year, it’s a long season and yet it doesn’t lend itself to weekly updates. 

Bowl Games 2009: Almost There!

Well, I’m going to get all the way up to the title game with this post. Because you just can’t get enough for my devastatingly wrong insight, no?

Also, if this doesn’t get you ready for the last vestiges of 2000-2009 football, then I don’t know what will.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

Saturday, January 2
12:00: Northern Illinois vs. South Florida (International Bowl @ Toronto, Canada; ESPN2): Unfortunately, ESPN decided not to bring back last year’s all-Canadian announcing team, which I personally found to be the most interesting thing about the game. At any rate, USF should be able to take care of NIU.
Previous meetings: I’m not entirely sure why, but these two teams have met before. NIU won the first meeting 20-17 but lost the second, 37-6 back in 2001 and 2002, respectively.
Last bowl game: NIU lost to somewhat hometown favorite Louisiana Tech 17-10 in last year’s Independence Bowl, while USF beat Memphis 41-14 in the St. Petersberg Bowl.

2:00:

  • Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): Well, it’s the first Cotton Bowl that’s not at the Cotton Bowl – this year’s edition is at Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace. Ah well. At any rate, I have Oklahoma State by 10 but right now I’m not feeling terribly good about it. Both these teams are coming off disappointing seasons – OSU had aspirations at the Big 12 South and lost to Texas and, even worse, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Ole Miss started the season with a top ten ranking generated almost entirely off their success in this game last year. I’ll stick with OSU, but it’ll be interesting to see how this turns out.
    Previous meeting: The only other meeting between these two was the 2003/2004 Cotton Bowl, which Ole Miss won 31-28.
    Last bowl game    : Oklahoma State is making its fourth straight bowl appearance. Last year they lost to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl 42-31. Ole Miss, meanwhile, broke their long bowl drought and generated more hype than ever thought possible in last year’s Cotton Bowl, where they upset Texas Tech 47-34.
  • Connecticut vs. South Carolina (papajohns.com Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): As you probably know by now, UConn’s been through a very up-and-down season and basically needed an upset of Notre Dame a few weeks ago to stay in the running to make a bowl game. South Carolina, well, had a very South Carolina kind of season – good but not great, and their fans love them anyway. I like the Visor Boys in this one.
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
    Last bowl game: UConn is working on a nice little streak, though their most recent bowl game was the 38-20 win over Buffalo in the International Bowl. The Fightin’ Visors got destroyed by Iowa in the Outback Bowl 31-10.

5:30: East Carolina vs. Arkansas (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ESPN): Yarr! Provided Arkansas shows up, I don’t think they’ll have a lot of problems with ECU, though it certainly wouldn’t be the first time Pickney and Co. have pulled off a big upset.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: ECU lost last year’s Liberty Bowl 25-19 to Kentucky. Arkansas missed a bowl last year and lost the 2007/2008 Cotton Bowl 38-7 to Missouri.

9:00: Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): I don’t even know what to do with this bowl anymore. A few weeks ago, this looked easy. Michigan State suspended ten players and Texas Tech should be eager to make up for a lackluster season, right? Wrong. Texas Tech managed to fire their most successful coach ever and should lead to the most interesting off-season coaching drama we’ve had since Las Cronicas Locas de Boss Hawg back in 2007. Texas Tech still has all their players, which should make them an on-paper favorite, but hell if I know what’s going to happen in this one.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Michigan State disappointingly lost to Georgia in last year’s Capital One Bowl, 24-12, while (as explained above) TTU lost the Cotton Bowl to Mississippi, 47-34.

Monday, January 4
8:00: Boise State vs. Texas Christian (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; FOX): I can’t help but cynically refer to this as the “Separate but Equal Bowl” because I honestly do not think anyone at the Fiesta Bowl was thinking “Gee, I would really like to use my position after the Sugar to select a mid-major team! Screw Penn State and/or Iowa!” At any rate, like I think most people I believe TCU is the technically superior team, having faced better competition than Boise and displaying an ability to defense against some at least somewhat legitimate offenses (note the plural: the only legitimate team Boise played was Oregon). So I’ll stick to my guns here.
Previous meetings: Both previous appearance were in bowl games. TCU lost the first meeting in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl, while they did win last year’s Poinsettia Bowl.
Last bowl game: The Poinsettia, as hinted at above. Boise has made a bowl every year since 2002, and if there were more games then they would’ve gone to one in 2001 (as they went 8-4), extending their streak back to the 1999 season. TCU has a similar streak, though in their missing year they wouldn’t have been eligible anyway, as they went 5-6.

Tuesday, January 5
8:00: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa (Orange Bowl @ Miami, FL; FOX): I would rail against the stupidity of scheduling bowl games after everyone has to go back to work here, but I think those arguments are very well worn at this point. At any rate, here’s what we know: 1) Iowa has a very good defense 2) GT has a very good offense. We also know very little about Iowa’s offense and GT’s defense other than that they’re not very good.
So what to expect  from this game? I have no idea. On the line for Tech is a bowl losing streak that dates to 2005 (no bowl wins since the blowout over Syracuse in 2004), and the potential for the ACC to go 4-3 overall in bowl games this year. If I have time before Tuesday (which I very much doubt), I may write more on this game.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Huh, I guess GT has the same problem LSU’s page did. I don’t seem to recall this game at all. Anyway, Iowa blew out South Carolina in last year’s Outback Bowl, 31-10.

Wednesday, January 6
7:00: Central Michigan vs. Troy (GMAC Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Central Michigan will likely come in with a chance to score the MAC’s first bowl win (unless NIU pulls off the upset), powered by Dan “Rust Belt Tebow” LeFevour. Troy, meanwhile, will pack the house at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in what should be a better game than most would expect. However, I still like CMU more overall.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Troy lost to Southern Miss 30-27 in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, which was their 3rd bowl game ever in their DI-A existence. Central Michigan lost last year’s Motor City Bowl 24-21 to Florida Atlanta.

And with that, I’ll be back next week with a preview of the National Title Game. Until then!