Category Archives: bowl games

Bowl Games 2013: This Is The Second Part

Bowl games really start to get into the swing of things here. We’ll examine the next five bowls and then do Saturday’s in another post.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday, December 26
6:00: Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green (Little Caesars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit, MI; EPSN): Bowling Green sports a 10-3 record and some gaudy defensive numbers, but one of those three losses was a 42-10 blowout at the hands of Indiana. I’m going with Pitt in this one, though it could be close.
Previous meetings: Three, all the in regular season. Pitt won back-to-back games in 1999 and 2000, but lost in 2008, 27-17.
Last bowl game: Bowling Green lost last year’s Military Bowl to San Jose State, 29-20. Pitt is making their sixth bowl appearance in a row, dating back to 2008’s Sun Bowl (most famous for being a 3-0 tragedy against Oregon State in which all of us lost, but especially Pitt). The lost last year’s BBVA Compass Bowl to Ole Miss, 38-17.
Announcers: Dave Lamont and Ray Bentley

9:30: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): Both these teams are coming off winnable letdowns in their conference title games, though it was NIU that suffered the most grievously in their 47-27 rout against Bowling Green. That said, Jordan Lynch’s final ride should be a success, though I don’t now how much of one, or even if it’ll be enough for the Huskies to win. I’m giving them a slight edge here.
Previous meetings: Only one, back in 1995. The Aggies won 42-7.
Last bowl game: Utah State is making their third bowl game in a row, and after two straight trips to Boise I’m sure they’ll relish the weather in San Diego. They beat Toledo 41-15 last year. This is NIU’s sixth bowl game in a row, dating back to a 17-10 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. They lost 31-10 to Florida State in last year’s Orange Bowl. The Huskies would have one of the nation’s larger bowl streaks if it weren’t for a lost 2-10 campaign in 2007 and not making a bowl in 2003 despite being 10-2. (Or, to be even more generous, they were 8-4 before that and 6-5 in 2000 and 2001.) That’s a pretty good run for any team, much less one from the MAC.
Announcers: Joe Davis and Mike Bellotti

Friday, December 27
2:30: Maryland vs. Marshall (Military Bowl @ Annapolis, MD; ESPN): I picked Marshall here in what I’m guessing a slight upset. I guess another way of saying that is I don’t think Maryland is very good.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Maryand’s first appearance in a bowl since the 2010 edition of this game, which was played at RFK Stadium. They beat East Carolina 51-20. This is Marshall’s first bowl since the 2011 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, which they won 20-10 over Florida International.
Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham

6:00: Syracuse vs. Minnesota (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): I wouldn’t expect a lot of offense in this one. Problem for Syracuse is that a) their offense is worse than Minnesota’s and b) that their defense is a lot worse. This would seem to spell trouble for the Orange, but, well, there’s a reason why I put that disclaimer at the top.
Previous meetings: Four, three of which have been won by Minnesota. The first meeting and only Orange victory was in 1995. They last met last year, where the Gophers won 17-10.
Last bowl game: Syracuse beat West Virginia 38-14 in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl. Minnesota lost 34-31 to Texas Tech in last year’s Car Care Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones and Brock Huard

9:30: Washington vs. Brigham Young (Fight Hunger Bowl @ San Francisco, CA; ESPN): It’s generally not a good sign when you go back and look at your ESPN Bowl Pick ‘Em picks and are surprised at who you picked. We’ll roll with it anyway. At any rate, these are both teams that can run the bowl, but Washington has been more adept at offense over the season. Neither defense gives a lot of points, though, so BYU will definitely be hanging around. I think this game will be one of the closer, tighter ones, but I’m going to stick to my pick.
Previous meetings: Eight of ’em, and the series is evenly split between the two. They split back-to-back games in 1986 and 1987, but Washington won three of the four games played from 1996 to 1999. BYU has won the last three meetings, including a 23-17 victory in 2010.
Last bowl game: This is U-Dub’s third bowl in a row, going back to 2010’s Holiday Bowl. They lost to Baylor 67-56 in last year’s defense optional Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Pasch and Brian Griese

Bowl Games 2013: Opening Slate

Once again, it’s time for post-season football. (Note that I have predicted all winners and losers already, I just need to fill in the scores, which requires slightly more research. These will be up soon.)

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 21
2:00: Washington State vs. Colorado State (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Wazzou makes it back to a bowl for the first time in the Mike Leach era. I think that excitement will translate into a slight win for the Cougars.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: Yes, it really has been 10 years since Wazzou last appeared in a bowl. They beat Texas 28-20 in the Holiday Bowl. After a five year drought themselves, the Rams make a return trip to this very game. The last time they were here in the post-season, they beat Fresno State 40-35.
Announcers: Mark Jones and Brock Huard

3:30: Southern California vs. Fresno State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): USC’s defense will be, bar none, the best defense the prolific Fresno State offense has faced all year. I think that will be enough for the Trojans to hold them off, but it’s kind of dicey because a) USC still has to adjust to the idea of playing in minor bowls b) DaCoachO was, by all accounts, very popular and resigned after USC hired Steve Sarkisian and c) depth.
Previous meetings: These two in-state foes have met only twice. The first meeting was in 1992, where the Trojans lost 24-7 in the Freedom Bowl. The last was more memorable, perhaps for Fresno’s plucky performance at what was being called at the time the Team of the Century. USC would win 50-42, preserving their undefeated season so they could lose to Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.
Last bowl game: This will be the second to last time I get to say this, most likely: USC lost to Georgia Tech in last year’s Sun Bowl, 21-7. Fresno lost last year’s Hawaii Bowl to SMU, 41-10.
Announcers: Rece Davis, Jesse Palmer, and David Pollack

5:30: Buffalo vs. San Diego State (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): In what is annually one of my favorite bowls for reasons mostly related to the name (it just feels right for bowls to be named after agricultural products, you know?). As for the game itself, I don’t have a good feel for this at all. Looking at the stats, and then looking my predicted winner, I guess I’m basically just saying SDSU is going to get lucky. Again, because they did beat some solid Mountain West teams and almost knocked off Fresno State themselves.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: The Bulls haven’t been to a bowl since their somewhat improbable run to a MAC championship in 2008, after which they lost to UConn in the International Bowl, 38-20. This will be the Aztecs’ fifth fourth bowl. They lost last year at home in the Poinsettia Bowl to BYU, 23-6.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Matt Stinchcomb

9:00: Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Tulane has a surprisingly good defense, but they are inept offensively. The Ragin’ Cajuns meanwhile have an okay defense and a good offense. These games, as one might suspect, are relatively hard to predict, but I gave a slight edge to the Cajuns.
Previous meetings: These in-state rivals have met only 26 times, and the Green Wave own the overall series 21-5. Lafayette won the last meeting last year, 41-13.
Last bowl game: This is Tulane’s first bowl game since the 2002 Hawaii Bowl, where they beat their hosts 36-28. Meanwhile, this is Lafayette’s third straight New Orleans Bowl. Last year they beat East Carolina 43-34. (The game is completely sold out, so apparently they’re not tired of going back yet.)
Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham

Monday, December 23
2:00: East Carolina vs. Ohio (Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): The nation’s 11th ranked scoring offense against its 66th scoring defense does not augur good tidings for the Bobcats.
Previous meetings: Two of ’em, actually, in 1996 and 1998. East Carolina won both, 55-45 and 21-14.
Last bowl game: The Pirates lost to the aforementioned Ragin’ Cajuns in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, 43-34. The Bobcats, meanwhile, are playing their fourth straight bowl game. They beat UL-Monroe 45-14 in the Independence Bowl last year.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Joey Galloway

Tuesday, December 24
8:00: Oregon State vs. Boise State (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Both these teams were rebuilding this year, so a trip to Hawaii after a pair of trying seasons has to be a bit of a relief. I think by the end of the year Boise was a slightly better team, so I have them as an appropriately slight winner.
Previous meetings: Seven times, with the Beavers holding a slight 4-3 edge. Boise has won the last two meetings, which were in 2006 and 2010. The 2010 win had a 37-24 margin.
Last bowl game: Oregon State lost last year’s Alamo Bowl to Texas, 31-27. This is Boise’s 12th straight bowl game, dating back to the 1999 Humanitarian Bowl, where they won 34-31. They also won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl over a Pac-12 opponent, beating Washington 28-26.
Announcers: Steve Levy, Lou Holtz, and Mark May

Bowl Predictions 2013: Final

Here are the final projections. I’ll be tweaking them throughout the day as bids are announced. Here are the high points:

  • This is a good article about the sorts of things that are wrong with the bowl system, at least in terms of teams earning bids.
  • Most other projections have Oregon getting shut out of the BCS, so I decided to follow the trend. I still have no idea why Clemson is considered a BCS team, but people who know more than me about this stuff say they’re in so I guess they’re in.
  • Oklahoma’s win over Oklahoma State is being projected to give them enough of a lift up into the top 14, where they will also go to the BCS for some reason. (Well, they’ll sell a ton of tickets to the Sugar Bowl, that’s why.)
  • Today’s results, especially in the Big 12, robbed me of the interesting matchups I was projecting last week. So much for those Oklahoma-Nebraska and Oregon-Baylor games. Instead, you’ll probably get to see Oregon put up 60 on Texas.
  • Speaking of predicted blowouts, most sources I saw put Duke in the Chick-fil-a Bowl against Texas A&M. TAMU’s defense is pretty awful, but they should be able to beat Duke handily. I have no idea why the CFA would pick Duke over Miami. Or at least I didn’t until I saw that their selection committee page said Miami’s best win is over Georgia Tech. My initial reaction was “that can’t possibly be right”. It turns out it is.
  • I would rather see Alabama-Oregon and Ohio State-Oklahoma State than what we’re getting, but that’s the BCS for you, I guess. We’ll know for sure at 8:30 PM tonight.

Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 1

And… we’re back! I’ll start out with a description of my process, and then we’ll do the overview. As usual, you can get the predictions here.

Background

Even though I wait until the BCS Standings come out to do my initial round of predictions, the first several weeks still involve a lot of guesswork. I start by basically looking at every team with a shot at bowl eligibility and then trying to figure out if which of the rest of their games they will win. For those who read my weekend previews, you probably know I’m not very good at the predicting part, so the predictions can change pretty wildly in the first couple weeks as teams pull off unexpected upsets, get upset themselves, etc. By the nature of having this many bowl games, most teams will have 6 to 8 wins, which means that their seasons can change quickly, or maybe a team that I thought will have five wins ends up pulling off an upset that propels them to 6 or 7 wins. There’s also the undercurrent of BCS busters, which I’ll get to below.

As we get closer to the end, there’s a) less guessing and b) some reporting. Around Thanksgiving, team beat writers start writing about possible bowl destinations for their teams. Doing this research helps me refine the predictions greatly, as they’re usually talking to bowl officials and athletic directors, allowing them to get wind of any shenanigans that may go down (and trust me, they have gone down in the past). Since this requires access, team bloggers are usually not a great source for this. (And don’t even get me started on the Bleacher Report, which wrecks my Google search results unless I exclude them.)

So that’s that. I’ll start where I usually do, but this year it’ll be for the last time: the BCS.

BCS

I have Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State running the table. As with most other experts I’ve seen, I think Oregon’s backloaded strength of schedule will allow them to pass Florida State in the computers. So let’s pencil in Alabama and Oregon to go to Pasadena. The other automatic slots are filled out thusly: Ohio State to the Rose, Oklahoma to the Fiesta, and Florida State to the Orange.

From there, first, the Sugar and Rose bowls get the first pick of the remaining eligible BCS teams. I have them going with Auburn. If Auburn’s only other loss this season is to Alabama, then they will probably be in a better position to get a BCS berth than Missouri, though I’ve been wrong about that sort of thing in the past. I also like Stanford to get a BCS at-large bid with two losses, and take Oregon’s place in the Rose Bowl.

Then we go Orange, Sugar, Fiesta for the remaining spots. The Big Ten looks two weak this year to get 2 BCS bids, so the other conferences will have to pick up the lack. For that reason, I have a 1-loss Baylor getting an invite to the Orange Bowl (that loss is to Oklahoma). I then put Clemson in the Sugar bowl, who could very well finish the season with just one loss. And finally, the American champion will go to the Fiesta. I currently have Louisville recovering to win the conference anyway.

So what about BCS busters? Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both likely candidates, and they are currently 17th and 18th in the standings. Louisville is currently 20th. However, Louisville could probably pass them and maybe get into the top 12 if they don’t lose again, which would block the BCS busters. However, if Louisville loses again, it is game on to see if any mid-major can finish in the top 16.

ACC

It looks to be a strong year for the ACC in terms of sending teams to bowl bids. They may only come up short if the conference places two teams in the BCS, which it still has never done.

  • Miami could well finish with two losses to Florida State, which I think will knock them out of contention for a BCS bid. They go to the Chick-fil-a Bowl.
  • They way their defense is playing, VPI could still win the ACC Coastal, but I currently have Miami beating them. This puts them in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
  • Finally given the opportunity to do so, the conference sends someone other than Georgia Tech to the Sun Bowl. In this scenario, that’s Boston College.
  • Thanks to an awful out-of-conference schedule, Maryland could very well make a bowl game while going 2-6 in conference. In fact, I have them doing exactly that. I was thinking they’d get the shaft in terms of a bowl destination, what with leaving the conference and all, but as it turns out they slot right into the Military Bowl, due to be played in Annapolis, Maryland this year. Dang.

American

I barely consider the AAC worth talking about, but they do still have a BCS auto-bid. Anyway, I think UCF is going to drop a couple games and that Louisville is going to win the conference anyway. As outlined above, the most interesting question is whether the champion of the American will finish high enough to prevent any BCS busters.

Big 12

Baylor’s next two games are against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, so we’re going to know a lot more about those three teams two weeks from now. For now, I have Baylor and Texas Tech losing some games and Oklahoma recovering to win the conference. I have TCU just missing out, so that’s a team to watch to see if they can score that 6th win.

Big Ten

As with last year, the Leaders division is Ohio State, Wisconsin, and then everyone else. At least Ohio State can go to a bowl this year. I have Nebraska as the champ from the Legends, which implies that I think they’ll beat Michigan. I do currently have Nebraska as making a return trip to the Capital One Bowl, so that could very easily be Wisconsin or Michigan there, depending on how things goes.

Pac-12

I actually have an extra Pac-12 team, even with Oregon and Stanford both going to the BCS: Utah. Of course, I may have been somewhat optimistic putting USC in a bowl game at all, and even that optimistic prediction has them at 6-6. And haters take note: despite playing nine conference games, 9 of the 12 teams could be bowl eligible (possibly 10, even, if Wazzou can eke out two more wins).

SEC

So I have Missouri winning the SEC East, and I don’t feel good about it at all. But everyone else in the SEC East has managed to face plant so far, so what other course am I left with? I even have them suffering at least one loss (probably to South Carolina) just because I can’t really fathom them going undefeated. And Auburn in a BCS game? Madness. Last year the SEC was easy: you had Alabama, TAMU, and Georgia at the top, a bunch of medicore teams, and then Ole Miss, Auburn, and Mizzou (oh, and yeah, Kentucky). This year it’s more like Alabama, everyone else, and then Kentucky.

Everyone else

From the independents, I don’t see Notre Dame making a BCS game at 9-3 (and they’re not even ranked right now), so I currently can only slot them in the Pinstripe Bowl? I’ll have to check in on that. I see BYU and Navy (the latter barely) making it.

From the mid-major conferences, I talked about the BCS busters at length above. It looks like we probably won’t have a shortage of teams this year, as the Sun Belt and MAC look like they’ll have plenty of extra teams to spare. The MAC especially is looking like it’ll be a good fight. MACtion Tuesdays can’t get here fast enough.

So that’s all until next week, when everything will surely be different.

Bowl Games 2012: Aftermath

I’ve uploaded the final iteration of the predictions. I went 20-15 this bowl season, which isn’t great but it’s not terrible either. Unfortunately for us all, I was almost entirely wrong about the BCS title game, but those are the breaks I guess.

So that’s that! As usual, what little activity there is here will decrease until next fall, but at this year we also have World Cup qualifying to keep us on our toes. Also, I have an idea of another research article along the same vein as this one. So until then…