Category Archives: bowl games

Bowl Games 2016: Opening Slate

Predictions are being gradually updated on the site, but they may not be complete by the time games kick-off on Saturday. Nonetheless, let’s get this thing started.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 17
2:00: New Mexico vs. Texas-San Antonio (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Bowl season kicks off featuring good ol’ Bob Davie’s option-lovin’ Lobos facing off against what figures to be an outmatched team somewhat ironically nicknamed the Roadrunners. (We’ll overlook at that New Mexico lost to Rutgers earlier this year.) I like Davie and Co. at home.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is New Mexico’s second straight bowl game. They lost last year’s edition of this game 45-37 to Arizona. For the Roadrunners, this is the first bowl game in the school’s history at FBS, dating back to 2012.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Mack Brown

3:30: Houston vs. San Diego State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): Look below, and yes sir, that’s Brent Musberger released from his SEC Network house arrest and let loose in Vegas. If you need to get wasted during the middle of a Saturday afternoon, take a swig anytime there’s an on-air gambling reference. As for the game, this is basically going to come down to whether not Houston shows up. If we get Oklahoma or Louisville Houston, then the Cougars win this one going away. If we get SMU Houston, well, it could get interesting. It’s easier to predict the former scenario than the latter scenario.
Previous meetings: Two, back in 1972 and 1973. Houston won both games, 49-19 and 14-9.
Last bowl game: This is Houston’s fourth straight bowl game, dating back to the 2013-14 Birmingham Bowl. With some 1-year gaps filled in, the streak would go all the way back to 2003, but alas. They defeated Florida State 38-24 in last season’s Peach Bowl.
Announcers: Brent Musberger and Jesse Palmer

5:30:

  • Toledo vs. Appalachian State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): If it weren’t for that pesky bunch to the north and west of them, Toledo would be the team we’d be talking about out of the MAC this year. Alas, the Rockets have to settle for second best, and, as I’m predicting, a win over a potentially feisty Appalachian State team.
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game:     This is Toledo’s third straight bowl game. They beat Temple in last year’s Boca Raton Bowl 32-17. The Mountaineers beat Ohio in last year’s Camellia Bowl, 31-29.
    Announcers:     Eamon McAnaney and John Congemi
  • Central Florida vs. Arkansas State (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): I don’t care if Monday’s blue, Tuesday’s grey and Wednesday too
    Thursday I don’t care about you, it’s Friday I’m in love
                                          
    Monday you can fall apart, Tuesday Wednesday break my heart
    Thursday doesn’t even start, it’s Friday I’m in love

    Saturday wait, and Sunday always comes too late
    but Friday never hesitate…
                                          
    I don’t care if Monday’s black, Tuesday Wednesday heart attack
    Thursday never looking back, it’s Friday I’m in love
    Monday you can hold your head, Tuesday Wednesday stay in bed
    or Thursday watch the walls instead, it’s Friday I’m in love
                                          
    Saturday wait, and Sunday always comes too late
    but Friday never hesitate…
                                          
    Dressed up to the eyes, it’s a wonderful surprise
    To see your shoes and your spirits rise
    Throwing out your frown and just smiling at the sound
    and as sleek as a shriek spinning round and round
    Always take a big bite, it’s such a gorgeous sight
    to see you in the middle of the night
    You can never get enough, enough of this stuff
    It’s Friday I’m in love
    I’ve got UCF here.
    Previous meetings: Just one, back on October 5, 1991. UCF won 31-20.
    Last bowl game:     UCF had a pretty solid streak going before last year’s season-long debacle. Their last bowl game was the 2014 Bitcoin Bowl, where they lost 34-27 to NC State. This is Arkansas State’s sixth straight bowl game, dating back to the 2011-12 GoDaddy.com Bowl. They lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl to 47-28 to Louisiana Tech.
    Announcers:     Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor

9:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): For reasons elaborated on below, this is essentially the Ragin Cajun Bowl. They’ll get 30,000 folks there easy, but Hattiesburg isn’t too far away either (just up I-59!) and if there’s an early season bowl destination that sells itself, it’s New Orleans. Hopefully the on-the-field action will live up to the action off of it. I’m also predicting some temporarily bummed out Cajuns.
Previous meetings: This depends on how you definite it, but counting only games where both teams are considered “major” (i.e., equivalent to FBS), they’ve met 20 times since 1974, and Southern Miss is 16-4 in that time. When one or both of the teams was non-major, though, you can also include around 30 games between 1923 and 1974. So, basically, it depends on who you ask, but either way the Golden Eagles hold a sizeable lead.
Last bowl game: The Golden Eagles appeared in last year’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, losing 44-31 to Washington. The Ragin’ Cajuns had a nifty four-year bowl game streak snapped last season, their last appearance was a 16-3 win over Nevada in the 2014 New Orleans Bowl. They have never appeared in any other bowl game.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Rod Gilmore

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 3

The latest predictions are now available (subject to change for anything completely unexpected on Tuesday).

At any rate, things are still pretty sketchy. Even for the CFP-controlled bowls, where I had to put in a 3-loss Auburn for lack of any other teams. Fortunately, second-half Auburn is looking like a pretty good team, but still, it doesn’t feel quite right to have a 3-loss team in these (supposedly) marquee matchups.

I’ll just hit some other thoughts in bullet points below:

  • Boise’s loss at Wyoming on Saturday may not put them out entirely. After all, they’ve still got a win over the probable Pac-12 North runner-up Washington State, which is still a better win than any of Western Michigan’s. Also, I think most would agree the Mountain West is stronger than the MAC. It will really depend on how the Committee ranks them going forward. Boise still has a pretty good chance to win their division, which would also let them face a pretty good San Diego State team in the Mountain West championship game. A win against the Aztecs would probably be better than any of Western Michigan’s wins except maybe the one over Northwestern.
  • I’m still short five teams. I even included a 6-6 Army team (with two wins over FCS teams) and a 5-7 Vanderbilt team (top-5 APR), so I’m really short seven. That’s really the entire potential pool of teams according to the rules. I’m not really sure what will happen if that comes to pass. Last year I still was missing five teams as late as Week 7, but things nevertheless worked out.
  • Suffice it to say, I think there are too many bowls. I’d guess the one likeliest to fold after this year is the Arizona Bowl, which still doesn’t have a real TV deal. Most of the other bowl games that you’d like are likely to fold are probably owned by ESPN. Given ESPN’s own troubles in terms of subscriber losses, that may spell doom for these games, but I’d guess not. Bowl games aren’t very expensive to put on, and there’s not much else going on during the holidays. If I had to hazard another guess, I’d go with the Cure Bowl, which was a game that took forever for the organizers to put together (it was on the “potential new bowl game” lists for years) and has a TV deal with the CBS Sports Network. I think 38 is more reasonable, but as a person who likes bowl games I’d say the ideal number is 30-35.
  • January 1st is a Sunday this year, so the traditional New Year’s Day bowls are split between New Year’s Eve and January 2nd. Nonetheless, putting 3 SEC teams in the CFP-controlled bowls really exposes the SEC’s weak underbelly this year, by which I mean there’s probably going to be 3 SEC East teams in New Year’s Day bowl games.
  • And yes, I did slot Georgia Tech over Miami because even though no one actually involved with the game would want it, I’m sure the Powers That Be (TM) would like the storylines around a Georgia Tech-Navy matchup.

That’s that for now. Hopefully we’ll know more next week!

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 1

Taking a brief break from work (Monday through Thursday) Civilization VI (tonight) to let y’all know that I uploaded Week 1 of the bowl predictions. I’m hoping to have more time to elaborate on the process here later, but for now, I need to get the preview up.

Quickly though, as per usual it’s still hard tell to anything when there’s still teams that haven’t played six games yet. Right now I’m short 6 teams, even. The bowl predictions page is also a fully updated and correct bowl schedule. The only thing I haven’t pulled yet is the APR standings, which, well, look like they’re going to come into play this year.

Bowl Games 2015: Epilogue

And… that’s all folks. The final tally is here, and also here: I went 24-17, which seems to be right around my average.

I’m pretty happy with my record, and I did pretty well in ESPN’s confidence system, at least on the picks I was most confident on. Those wound up being, from most to least:

  1. Virginia Tech over Tulsa (Independence Bowl)
  2. Marshall over Connecticut (St. Petersburg Bowl)
  3. California over Air Force (Armed Forces Bowl)
  4. Mississippi State over North Carolina State (Belk Bowl)
  5. Southern California over Wisconsin (Holiday Bowl)
  6. Tennessee over Northwestern (Outback Bowl)
  7. Michigan over Florida (Citrus Bowl)
  8. Arkansas over Kansas State (Liberty Bowl)
  9. Memphis over Auburn (Birmingham Bowl)
  10. Georgia over Pennsylvania State (TaxSlayer Bowl)

And how about that title game, huh? It definitely did a lot to make up for the disastrously boring other major bowls over New Year’s.

Anyway, that’s it for now. College football content should resume, as usual, by August at the latest for our preview of the upcoming season’s non-conference scheduling. In the meantime, World Cup qualifying resumes in March, so look for an update about that. Until then…