Category Archives: bowl games

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 3

The latest predictions are now available (subject to change for anything completely unexpected on Tuesday).

At any rate, things are still pretty sketchy. Even for the CFP-controlled bowls, where I had to put in a 3-loss Auburn for lack of any other teams. Fortunately, second-half Auburn is looking like a pretty good team, but still, it doesn’t feel quite right to have a 3-loss team in these (supposedly) marquee matchups.

I’ll just hit some other thoughts in bullet points below:

  • Boise’s loss at Wyoming on Saturday may not put them out entirely. After all, they’ve still got a win over the probable Pac-12 North runner-up Washington State, which is still a better win than any of Western Michigan’s. Also, I think most would agree the Mountain West is stronger than the MAC. It will really depend on how the Committee ranks them going forward. Boise still has a pretty good chance to win their division, which would also let them face a pretty good San Diego State team in the Mountain West championship game. A win against the Aztecs would probably be better than any of Western Michigan’s wins except maybe the one over Northwestern.
  • I’m still short five teams. I even included a 6-6 Army team (with two wins over FCS teams) and a 5-7 Vanderbilt team (top-5 APR), so I’m really short seven. That’s really the entire potential pool of teams according to the rules. I’m not really sure what will happen if that comes to pass. Last year I still was missing five teams as late as Week 7, but things nevertheless worked out.
  • Suffice it to say, I think there are too many bowls. I’d guess the one likeliest to fold after this year is the Arizona Bowl, which still doesn’t have a real TV deal. Most of the other bowl games that you’d like are likely to fold are probably owned by ESPN. Given ESPN’s own troubles in terms of subscriber losses, that may spell doom for these games, but I’d guess not. Bowl games aren’t very expensive to put on, and there’s not much else going on during the holidays. If I had to hazard another guess, I’d go with the Cure Bowl, which was a game that took forever for the organizers to put together (it was on the “potential new bowl game” lists for years) and has a TV deal with the CBS Sports Network. I think 38 is more reasonable, but as a person who likes bowl games I’d say the ideal number is 30-35.
  • January 1st is a Sunday this year, so the traditional New Year’s Day bowls are split between New Year’s Eve and January 2nd. Nonetheless, putting 3 SEC teams in the CFP-controlled bowls really exposes the SEC’s weak underbelly this year, by which I mean there’s probably going to be 3 SEC East teams in New Year’s Day bowl games.
  • And yes, I did slot Georgia Tech over Miami because even though no one actually involved with the game would want it, I’m sure the Powers That Be (TM) would like the storylines around a Georgia Tech-Navy matchup.

That’s that for now. Hopefully we’ll know more next week!

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 1

Taking a brief break from work (Monday through Thursday) Civilization VI (tonight) to let y’all know that I uploaded Week 1 of the bowl predictions. I’m hoping to have more time to elaborate on the process here later, but for now, I need to get the preview up.

Quickly though, as per usual it’s still hard tell to anything when there’s still teams that haven’t played six games yet. Right now I’m short 6 teams, even. The bowl predictions page is also a fully updated and correct bowl schedule. The only thing I haven’t pulled yet is the APR standings, which, well, look like they’re going to come into play this year.

Bowl Games 2015: Epilogue

And… that’s all folks. The final tally is here, and also here: I went 24-17, which seems to be right around my average.

I’m pretty happy with my record, and I did pretty well in ESPN’s confidence system, at least on the picks I was most confident on. Those wound up being, from most to least:

  1. Virginia Tech over Tulsa (Independence Bowl)
  2. Marshall over Connecticut (St. Petersburg Bowl)
  3. California over Air Force (Armed Forces Bowl)
  4. Mississippi State over North Carolina State (Belk Bowl)
  5. Southern California over Wisconsin (Holiday Bowl)
  6. Tennessee over Northwestern (Outback Bowl)
  7. Michigan over Florida (Citrus Bowl)
  8. Arkansas over Kansas State (Liberty Bowl)
  9. Memphis over Auburn (Birmingham Bowl)
  10. Georgia over Pennsylvania State (TaxSlayer Bowl)

And how about that title game, huh? It definitely did a lot to make up for the disastrously boring other major bowls over New Year’s.

Anyway, that’s it for now. College football content should resume, as usual, by August at the latest for our preview of the upcoming season’s non-conference scheduling. In the meantime, World Cup qualifying resumes in March, so look for an update about that. Until then…

Bowl Games 2015: Final

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 11
8:30: Clemson vs. Alabama (College Football Playoff Championship Game @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): Well, here we are. This was definitely the predicted matchup, with neither of the semifinals presenting much of a challenge. If this were still the BCS era, there wouldn’t have been a controversey over the title game matchup. Fortunately, it isn’t the BCS era, but still.
You likely know the narratives coming into this one, but I find the usual stories probably don’t give Clemson enough credit. I suspect that, “Clemsoning” aside, the Tigers like it that way. The disarmament starts with their head coach. I was there, by sheer coincidence, for Dabo Swinney’s first game as head coach, as they played (and lost to) Georgia Tech. At the time, me and probably most observers figured that the interim tag would be as far as he’d get. However, the hire has turned out to be shrewd. Dabo doesn’t call the plays, heck, with the best paid assistants and coordinators this side of the SEC, who knows how much gameplanning he really does? But he recruits like hell, and as a gameday coach and motivator he’s proven himself to be one of the best. And now it’s showing. Clemson has long had skilled, er, skill players, but what has vaulted this Clemson squad into the elite is their defensive line play. That will be something to watch.
I don’t think I need to say that much about the Crimson Tide. They, too, have elite coaches directing elite talent. However, this Alabama team is not invulnerable, particularly their secondary can be beat. I also don’t think they have much on offense outside of Derrick “El Tractorito” Henry, but that’s a hell of a piece to have.
Well, it’s time for my last prediction until September. I’m picking the Tigers in a slight upset. I think both these teams are great, but I think the Tigers have a slight edge on the offensive side of the ball.
Previous Meetings: It’s not great for the Tigers, as they’re 3-12 all-time against Alabama. Even worse, those three wins came in the first three meetings in 1900, 1904, and 1905. They’ve met intermittently since, with 20-30 year gaps not uncommon. Their last meeting was in 2008, when the Tide won 34-10.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit