The holiday season? Eh, that’s all well and good, but now it’s the reason for the season: that’s right, bowl games! Why are there 39 of them this year, you ask? Because one of them went out of business! Why were there previously 40, you ask? Well, because live sports are about the only thing that makes money on TV anymore!

This year’s preview of all the action includes a new Watchability Rating. I mean, let’s face it, you’re going to have these games on at least in the background anyway because it’s not like anything else is on. But nonetheless, I’m here to help you prioritize. To wit, here’s the four tiers:

• I: Background noise, or maybe just the background thing on TV while you have some Christmas music on.
• II: You’ll at least have the volume turned up, because, hey, it’s college football, anything can happen.
• III: Your family member who likes college football will be actively watching this, telling you about how Mizzou got a lot better in the second half the season as they rediscovered their offense and their schedule got easier.
• IV: Marquee games, like playoff games as well as quality bowl matchups featuring good teams.

Also new are S&P+ lines, which are based on the differences on the S&P+ ratings produced by Bill Connelly. Since Connelly uses gauges this against Vegas lines, I thought it’d be useful to look at these numbers.

With all that said, let’s look over tomorrow’s opening slate! The full slate is, of course, here.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

1:00: North Texas vs. Troy (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Troy has made perhaps the best coaching hire of the season, by which I mean they were able to retain rising star Neal Brown for another year. By all rights, with the win over LSU the Trojans should’ve been 11-1 this year, but they blew that chance by putting up a result even more inexplicable than their win in Baton Rouge: losing a week later at home to South Alabama. North Texas was a respectable 9-4 this year, but they never looked that impressive doing it even though they won Conference-USA West. I’m going with Troy.
S&P+ line: Troy by 3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Ten total meetings, dating to when both were in the Sun Belt. The first was in 2001, an 18-16 win by Troy, and the last was in 2012, a 14-7 win for Troy. Troy leads the overall series 8-2.
Last bowl game: North Texas appeared in last year’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, losing 38-31 to Army. Troy defeated Ohio 28-23 in last year’s Dollar General Bowl.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Kelly Stouffer

2:30: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): Whenever I’m alone with you
You make me feel like I am home again
Whenever I’m alone with you
You make me feel like I am whole again

However far away
I will always love you
However long I stay
I will always love you
Whatever words I say
I will always love you
I will always love you
I’ve got WKU here.
S&P+ line: WKU by 3.8
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one, a 44-28 Western Kentucky victory back in 2013.
Last bowl game: For the Hilltoppers, this is their fourth straight bowl game. They beat Memphis 51-31 in last year’s Boca Raton Bowl. This is Georgia State’s second ever bowl appearance. Their first appearance was a 27-16 loss to San Jose State in the 2015 Cure Bowl.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor

3:30: Oregon vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): I actually like the Ducks here. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching situation affects them, but they ended their season pretty strong except for a 38-3 faceplant up in Seattle. Boise was back to its old ways in the Mountain West. What this means, ultimately, is that this the game of the day, by far.
S&P+ line: Boise State by 1.6
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just two, in 2008 and 2009. Boise won both games, but the most infamous moment in either game in the 2009 when, after the game, LaGarrette Blount sucker punched a Boise State defensive linemen right in the jaw. Blount wound up getting suspended and kicked off the team, but has gone on to punch it into the end zone 51 times in the NFL.
Last bowl game: This is the first bowl game for the Ducks since the 2015 season, where they lost 47-41 to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. For the Broncos, this is their 16th straight bowl game, dating back to the 2002 Humanitarian Bowl, a 34-16 win over Iowa State. Last year they were defeated 31-12 by Baylor in the Cactus Bowl.
Announcers: Rece Davis and Kirk Herbstreit

4:30: Colorado State vs. Marshall (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): This season just never got going for the Rams. After starting 6-2, they’d finish 7-5 including close losses to Wyoming and Boise State. Marshall’s season followed a similar trajectory, starting 6-1 before going 1-4 to close out the year. This comes down to how you feel about the relative quality of the Mountain West versus C-USA, which for me makes me lean slightly toward the Rams.
S&P+ line: Rams by 2.8
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Colorado State’s fifth straight bowl game dating back to the 2013 New Mexico Bowl, a 48-45 win over Washington State. Last year they lost to Idaho 60-51 in the Potato Bowl. This is Marshall’s first bowl since the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl, a 16-10 win over UConn.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks

8:00: Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): Arkansas State also boasts a weird loss to South Alabama and a kind of “is this really happening?” loss to Troy which got some Twitter notoriety a couple weekends ago. That said, I like them over MTSU, who may just be happy just to be bowling. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!)
S&P+ line: RedWolves by 8.2
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Former Sun Belt foes, MTSU holds a 9-5 all-time lead, including two wins way back in 1948 and 1949. Their last meting was back in 2012, a 45-0 Arkansas State shutout.
Last bowl game: This is the third straight bowl for the Blue Raiders, dating back to a 45-31 loss to Western Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl. Last season they lost 52-35 to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. For the Red Wolves, this is their seventh straight bowl game, dating back to the 2011-2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl, a 38-20 loss to Northern Illinois. Last season they defeated Central Florida 31-13 in the Cure Bowl.
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Andre Ware

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9th
8:30: Clemson vs. Alabama (College Football Playoff Championship Game @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): I looked over the post I made for this matchup last year and, well, most of it still applies. So let’s break this down by unit.
The place to start is the unit that’s been in the news for most of the past week: the Alabama offense. Coordinated by Lane Kiffin for most of the past three years, culminating with this season’s relatively wide-open offense headed up by a mobile freshman quarterback. This is not the Alabama blueprint we’ve come to be familiar with. However, Alabama has yet to face a defensive line the quality of Clemson’s, except maybe for LSU. The final score in that game? 10-0. There’s also the reason they’ve been in the news: Lane Kiffin by all accounts wanted to continue to coach Alabama in the playoffs before heading off to his new gig, but was forced out. Subsequently, the Tide promoted one of their video room guys, former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian, to offensive coordinator. Since he wasn’t a coach, he wasn’t on the sidelines on gamedays and (was supposed to have) had little contact with the players at all. It’s easy to speculate on the impact this will have, but that’s all I’d be doing. So I’ll just stick to figuring it’ll make some difference either way.
The Clemson offense, meanwhile, returned Deshaun Watson and virtually all their skill players from last year’s team. While at times lacking focus this season, they responded emphatically when it mattered, as Ohio State found out last week. Again, the chess match in this game is the Clemson offense versus the Alabama defense.
The Tide defense is practically legendary at this point. There simply isn’t a better defense in college football. But if there’s anyone that’s not scared of these guys, it’s Clemson. They put up 40 last year and nearly won the game. Will Saban and go be prepared to counter them this year? How will they respond to things Clemson hasn’t done before? We saw how that went for Ohio State last week.
The Clemson defense isn’t as well know, but they’re almost as good, especially on the defense line. They lived in the Ohio State backfield most of last week. I figured the Buckeyes had a giid chance in that game because they’d have the athletes to do what most ACC offensive lines couldn’t, which is block them. I was dead wrong. Ohio State looked confused and disoriented most of the night along the line, which made the Buckeye offense dead in the water. The question is, can I talk myself into thinking the Alabama offensive line can block them? I’m not sure.
For all the hand-wringing about the playoffs going into this game, it definitely feels like we got the best two teams in one place. Few other teams this season were as dominant on both sides of the ball. And from watching the games last week and thinking about it for the past week, I have talked myself into a slight Clemson upset. They’ve got plenty of experience, and they’re going to be motivated to take care of business this year.
Previous meetings: Obviously, the most recent meeting between these two was in last year’s game, which Alabama won 45-40. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that still means they haven’t beaten Alabama since October 25, 1905 and they’re 3-13 against the Tide all time.
Last bowl game: Technically, their previous round matchups against Ohio State and Washington, respectively. See that post for the details.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 2nd
1:00:

• Iowa vs. Florida (Outback Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ABC): This one o’clock timeslot doesn’t look terribly enticing, if I’m being honest. First, we have two offensively challenged teams, though one seems to act as though it has slightly shackles than the other. Somehow, that team is Iowa. But it’s about picking your poison, and the poison for this game is that there will probably be a lot of head-scratching, over-conservative playcalling.
  Previous meetings: Three, and mostly in bowls of recent vintage. The first was a 14-6 Florida win in the 1983 Gator Bowl. The second was a 37-17 win in the 2003-04 Outback Bowl. The third was in the 2005-06 Outback Bowl, a 31-24 Florida win.
  Last bowl game: This is Iowa’s fourth straight bowl, going back to the 2013-14 Outback Bowl, where they lost to LSU 21-14. Last season they got pasted 45-16 by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. As for the Gators, this will be their third straight post-season appearance. They defeated East Carolina 28-20 in the 2013-14 Birmingham Bowl, and last season they lost 41-7 to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
  Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham
• Wisconsin vs. Western Michigan (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): Whereas the problem with this game is that, well, if it’s anywhere close I’ll be absolutely stunned. Yes, Western Michigan is 2-0 against the Big Ten, but that was against an undersized Northwestern and an awful Illinois team. Wisconsin is one of the biggest teams around, and their defense is elite. If the Badgers treat this game seriously (potentially a big if), I don’t think it’ll be close.
  Previous meetings: As one might guess, this Big Ten vs. MAC matchup has been played a few times, but not many more, with meetings in 1963, 1981, 1988, and 2000. Wisconsin has won all of them, except for a 24-14 win for Broncos in 1988. Otherwise, it’s been all Badgers
  Last bowl game: This is Wisconsin’s 15th straight bowl appearance, tied with Boise State for the sixth longest streak. Correspondingly, you need to go back to a 31-28 win over Colorado in the 2002 Alamo Bowl to find the beginning of this run. They edged Southern Cal 23-21 in last season’s Holiday Bowl. For the Broncos, this is their third straight appearance. They lost 38-24 to Air Force in the 2014 Potato Bowl and beat Middle Tennessee State 45-31 in last season’s Bahamas Bowl.
  Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Brock Huard

5:00: Pennsylvania State vs. Southern California (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): Don’t look, but it’s entirely possible the best team in the second half of the season was the University of Southern California Trojans. They rolled off eight wins to close the season, including a close win over a resurgent Colorado and a score-makes-it-look-closer-than-it-was 26-13 win over Washington in Seattle. Even if you’re as skeptical of “momentum” as I am, it’s hard to deny this team is hot. Yet, if we apply the same metrics to Penn State, we see they won nine in a row to close the season, including wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin. The main difference would seem to the manner in which these teams earned their best wins, but that’s ultimately beside the point. Both these teams are young and have all the reasons in the world to go into this game and make a statement, and I expect a contest that’s the opposite of those at the 1:00 slot. I have USC, but not by much.
Previous meetings: Nine! The first was all the back in the 1922-23 Rose Bowl, which Southern Cal won 14-3. Fast forward to the 1981-82 season for their next meeting, a 26-10 Penn State win in the Fiesta Bowl. A regular season series was played six times from 1990-2000, and then their last meeting was in the 2008-09 Rose Bowl, a 38-24 USC win. The Trojans hold a narrow 5-4 series lead.
Last bowl game: This is Penn State’s third straight bowl game. They beat Boston College 31-30 in the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl and lost to Georgia in last season’s Taxslayer Bowl. USC, meanwhile, probably doesn’t like to reflect much on the 2012 Sun Bowl, what with the 21-7 loss to Georgia Tech and all. Nonetheless, that was the start of their current five game bowl streak, with the most recent entry being a 23-21 loss to Wisconsin in last season’s Holiday Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

8:30: Auburn vs. Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Oklahoma is here because the Sooners won 10 games and had losses to Houston and Ohio State, which are both legitimate losses. They then Boomer Soonered their way through the Big 12, emerging unscathed with an undisputed conference title. Auburn is here because the Sugar Bowl is designated for the highest ranked available SEC team, and, well, every SEC team other than Alabama had at least four losses. Auburn’s four losses wound up being the most respectable compared to Tennessee and Florida, so here they are. Suffice it to say, I have Oklahoma all the way here.
Previous meetings: Just one, and in this 1971-72 edition of this game. The Sooners won 40-22.
Last bowl game: This is Auburn’s fourth straight postseason game, going back to the 2013-14 BCS Championship Game, where they lost 34-31 to Florida State. Last season they pasted Memphis 31-10 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Sooners own the country’s fourth longest streak of postseason appearances, with this being their 18th consecutive one. Their streak began with the 1999 Independence Bowl, which they lost to Ole Miss 27-25. Last season, they were defeated 37-17 by Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
Announcers: Brent Musberger and Jesse Palmer

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 31st
11:00:

• Louisville vs. Louisiana State (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): This game is a tough assignment, if you ask me. Louisville, of course, still has their all-everything player, and while the LSU offense certainly showed signs of life later in the season, missing Fournette is still big. Furthermore, Louisville did somewhat inexplicably lose to Kentucky, a loss that could provide a blueprint for LSU. Despite all this, I still like the Cardinals a lot here.
  Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
  Last bowl game: This is Louisville’s seventh straight bowl appearance, dating to the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl. They beat Southern Mississippi 31-28. They defeated Texas A&M 27-21 in last season’s Music City Bowl. This is LSU’s 17th straight bowl appearance, which is the nation’s fifth longest streak. The streak started with a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl, and the most recent addition was a 56-27 win over Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl.
  Announcers: Dave Pasch and Greg McElroy
• Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky (Taxslayer Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN): Speaking of Kentucky, here we are. In a season characterized by uneven offensive performances and a horrid defense, Georgia Tech kept going and wound up making enough plays to beat Georgia. This matchup would seem to be pretty good for us, but the defense just remains so incredibly suspect that I have to remain nervous.
  Previous meetings: 19, and none since Tech left the SEC in the early 60’s. Remember that in the early day of college football conferences, teams had a lot more flexibility to set their own schedules. and Kentucky was not one of Tech’s major opponents. The longest streak of consecutive games was 1935 through 1942. Anyway, the first meeting was a 3-3 tie in 1923. The last meeting was a 23-13 Tech win in 1960, and the Jacket have an 11-7-1 overall series lead.
  Last bowl game: GT, of course, used to own the third longest bowl streak in the nation. Unfortunately, last year’s 3-9 disappointment ended the streak with the 2014 triumph in the Orange Bowl, a 49-34 lead over Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl. This is Kentucky’s first bowl game since a 27-10 loss to Pitt in the 2010-11 BBVA Compass Bowl, which was the last in a five-year streak of their own.
  Announcers: Mark Jones and Rod Gilmore

3:00: Alabama vs. Washington (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): And so it begins. For the first game of the playoff, we have a game that pretty much everyone assumes will be a blowout. And frankly, if Alabama doesn’t win a national title it’ll be a huge upset. They are simply bigger, stronger, and deeper than the rest of the field, where “the rest of the field” is the entire FBS. The only other team Washington played that approached Alabama’s talent level was Southern Cal, and the Huskies wound up losing 26-13. Don’t get me wrong. I think it’d be great of UDub pulled this off and I will be rooting for them. I just… don’t see it happening.
Previous meetings: Four. The most famous, of course, was the first: the 1925-26 Rose Bowl, where Alabama hung on for a 20-19 win. They met in the regular season in 1975 and 1978, and the last was the 1986 Sun Bowl, all Alabama wins. The Tide are 4-0 overall.
Last bowl game: Bama has the eight largest streak in the nation, at 13 straight games. Indeed, you’ll need to go back to the 2004 Music City Bowl to find the start of that run, a 20-16 loss to Minnesota. Yeah, the Tide doesn’t really go to bowls like that anymore. Last season, they blasted Michigan State 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl and then beat Clemson 45-40 to win the college football playoff. This is Washington’s seventh straight bowl game. The game that started that run was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 win over Nebraska. Last season, they beat Southern Mississippi 44-31 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Todd Blackledge

7:00: Clemson vs. Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): I think this game will be as close as the other game will be a blowout. I see the matchups across the board as strength-on-strength, with maybe the only edge being at quarterback (that is, with Watson being better). Thing is, this Clemson team is not nearly as dominate as last year’s version was, with a tendency to play up or down to their competition. Even if that holds up here, I still see the Buckeyes doing what Louisville and FSU couldn’t do to this Tigers, and that is put them away.
Previous meetings: Two, and both in bowl games. Clemson won 17-15 back in the 1978 Gator Bowl as well as 40-35 in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl.
Last bowl game: Yep, at this point in bowl season, you start getting into streak territory. Clemson has a 12 game streak, going back to the 2005 Champs Sports Bowl, where they beat Colorado 19-10. Clemson’s streak would be six games longer in the modern bowl landscape, but back in 2004 there just wasn’t room for a 6-5 Clemson team. Last season, of course, saw a 37-17 win over Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl and a 45-40 loss to Alabama in the college football playoff. The Buckeyes would also have a long streak, but the sanctions on the 12-0 2012 team prevented that. And so, their current four game streak dates to the 2013-14 Orange Bowl, mentioned above. Last season, they beat Notre Dame (which went 4-8 this year) 44-28 in the Fiesta Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit