When you see how badly my predictions have gone so far, just remember the below disclaimer:

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday, December 26
1:30: West Virginia vs. Utah (Heart of Dallas Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): Ah, the Zombie Cotton Bowl gets us back into the swing of things. Anyway, I don’t have a very good read on this game, to be honest. WVU is kind of stumbling in after losing their last two, and really it’s not like Utah is that much better, though they did at least have the benefit of beating Utah 34-13 in their final game and giving Washington all they wanted. WVU’s offense is more potent and Utah’s pass defense is kind of mediocre, so I’m going with the ‘Neers, barely.
S&P+ line: Utah by 3.8
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just one, back in the 1964 Liberty Bowl. Utah won, 32-6.
Last bowl game: West Virginia is on a four game bowl streak, starting with the 2014 Liberty Bowl, which they lost 45-37 to Texas A&M. Last year, they lost 31-14 to Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. For the Utes, this is also their fourth straight bowl, going back to the 2014 Las Vegas Bowl where they beat Colorado State 45-10. Last season, they defeated Indiana in the Foster Farms Bowl 26-24.
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Rene Ingoglia

5:15: Northern Illinois vs. Duke (Quick Lane Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): These two teams have similar strengths: kind of mediocre offenses paired with above-average defenses. In that situation, I’ll take the Power 5 team every time.
S&P+ line: NIU by 3.6
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: NIU had an eight-game bowl streak snapped last season, so their last appearance was the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl, where they lost 55-7 to Boise State. Duke’s last postseason appearance was the 2015 Pinstripe Bowl, where they defeated Indiana 44-41.
Announcers: Mike Couzens and Ray Bentley

9:00: Kansas State vs. California-Los Angeles (Cactus Bowl @ Phoenix, AZ; ESPN): Around mid-October, I’d written off Bill Synder’s wizardry and the Wildcats. Naturally, K-State rallied to win 4 of their last 5 including an upset on the road at Oklahoma State. UCLA is pretty much… well, I just think K-State will be more motivated.
S&P+ line: K-State by 0.9
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Three of them, and all relatively recently. There was a reguar season series in 2009 and 2010. UCLA won the first 23-9, and K-State won 31-22 in the second. They then met in the 2014-15 Alamo Bowl, where UCLA won 40-35.
Last bowl game: This is K-State’s eighth straight bowl game, going back to the 2010 Pinstripe Bowl, which they lost 36-34 to Sryacuse. Last season they beat Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl 33-28. UCLA’s last bowl game was the 2015 Foster Farms Bowl, where they lost 37-29 to Nebraska.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Jordan Rodgers

Wednesday, December 27
1:30: Florida State vs. Southern Mississippi (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN): Whether or not FSU is technically eligible for this game is kind of beside the point. The point is that it’s incredible hard to predict victory here for a team that just saw their coach voluntarily leave for an arguably worse job (after all, how many BCS bowl/playoff bids does Texas A&M have?) after they had to play a rescheduled game to wind up in Shreveport, of all places. (And no, it’s not going to snow.) I’ll take USM here based entirely on motivation.
S&P+ line: Southern Miss by 3.7
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Twenty-two! They played 6 times from 1952-1957, and then 4 times between 1960 and 1964, 5 times in the 70’s and then 6 times in the 80’s. However, after FSU joined the ACC they’ve met just once, in 1996. Southern Miss led the series 6-3-1 before FSU became, well, FSU in the 70’s, and since then FSU has taken a 13-8-1 series lead. FSU won the last meeting in 1996 54-14.
Last bowl game: As we all know, Florida State has the longest active bowl streak in the country, now numbering 36 consecutive postseason appearances. Once again, I’ll point that the streak started in the 1982 Gator Bowl, where they beat West Virginia 31-12. And Shreveport probably feels a lot farther away from Miami than it actually is, as that’s where FSU defeated Michigan 33-32 last season in the Orange Bowl. For Southern Miss, this is their third straight bowl game. They lost 44-31 to Washington in the Zombie Cotton Bowl two seasons ago and beat UL-Lafayette 28-31 in the New Orleans Bowl last year.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks

5:15: Boston College vs. Iowa (Pinstripe Bowl @ New York, NY; ESPN): Boston College’s weirdly resurgent offense finally gets a national stage, and it maybe worth watching just to see Iowa fans react to seeing something that looks a lot like what the platonic ideal of Iowa offense is.
S&P+ line: Iowa by 3.3
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Boston College defeated Maryland in last year’s Quick Lane Bowl 36-30. For the Hawkeyes, this is their fifth straight bowl game, going back to the 2012-13 Outback Bowl, where they lost 21-14 to LSU. Last season they also lost in the Outback Bowl, 30-3 to Florida.
Announcers: Kevin Negandhi, Mack Brown, and Booger McFarland

8:30: Purdue vs. Arizona (Foster Farms Bowl @ Santa Clara, CA; FOX): This is pretty much the exact definition of a college football hipster game. You’ve got Jeff Brohm’s new-look Purdue offense versus the most exciting player in college football you’ve probably never heard of in Khalil Tate. The problem for Purdue this year is that it’s been tough sledding for that offense for any defense with a pulse, which unfortunately for them is most of the Big Ten. But! Arizona’s defense is awful, so they’ll have a chance in this one. I still like the Wildcats, though I could see this one coming down to who has the ball last.
S&P+ line: Purdue by 1.6
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Just two, both in the regular season. Purdue won 59-7 in 2003 and 31-24 in 2005.
Last bowl game: Purdue’s last postseason appearance was the 2012-13 Heart of Dallas Bowl, where they lost 58-14 to Oklahoma State. Arizona’s was the 2015 New Mexico Bowl, where they beat New Mexico 45-37.
Announcers: Joe Davis and Brady Quinn

9:00: Texas vs. Missouri (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): Mizzou started out 1-5 and was left for dead, so naturally they discovered a passing offense and reeled off six in a row as their schedule got significantly easier. The main problem for the Longhorns is that they aren’t particularly good at anything, and their offense has looked downright awful at times this year. That said, I could see Texas getting a lot better… next season. I like the Tigers here.
S&P+ line: Mizzou by 4.3
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Texas holds an all-time 17-6 series lead, which doesn’t seem like a lot until you remember that they were only really in the same conference for about 20 years. The series does go all the way back to 1894, though (Mizzou won 28-0) and the two met in the 1945-46 Cotton Bowl (Texas won 40-27). Since 1931, Texas is 16-2 and was 7-2 when they were both in the Big 12, though Mizzou did win the last meeting in 2011 17-5.
Last bowl game: It’s kind of hard to believe, but this is the first bowl game for Texas since the 2014 Texas Bowl, where they lost 31-7 to Arkansas. Mizzou’s last bowl was the 2014-15 Citrus Bowl, where they beat Minnesota 33-17.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Dusty Dvoracek

Thursday, December 28
1:30: Virginia vs. Navy (Military Bowl @ Annapolis, MD; ESPN): This game got a Tier II rating below because, hey, Navy’s fun to watch, but less fun is to note that they’ve lost six of their last seven. Of course, UVA’s not that much better in that regard. After getting to six wins against Georgia Tech (ugh), they immediately lost their last three games including a 10-0 clunker to Virginia Tech, meaning the Cavs have lost five of their last six. In a battle of who’s probably going to be more motivated and want it more, you have to go with the service academy right? Probably doesn’t hurt they’re playing at home, either.
S&P+ line: Virginia by 0.4
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Considering the age of their programs and geographical proximity, it’s no surprise that they’ve met 38 times. Navy holds a 27-11 all-time lead that dates back to 1889 (a 22-12 win for the Midshipmen). They haven’t met since 1994, when Virginia won 47-10 and is on a 5-game winning streak from 1990 through that 1994 game.
Last bowl game: UVA’s last bowl game was the 2011 Chick-fil-a Bowl, where they lost 43-24 to Auburn. This is Navy’s sixth straight bowl appearance, starting with a 62-28 loss to Arizona State in the 2012 Fight Hunger Bowl. Last season they lost 48-45 to Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Kirk Morrison

5:15: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State (Camping World Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): This could well be a shootout. Oklahoma State sports one of the game’s best passing offenses against one of the top defenses in the country, so what I mean by that is that I think the Pokes’ offense is just that good. It’ll be a shootout in the sense that Oklahoma State’s defense, well, leaves a lot to be desired and could allow VPI to stay in the game. Overall, though, if this is high scoring, then that definitely favors State.
S&P+ line: OSU by 5.1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Just two, back in the 1971 and 1972 regular seasons. Oklahoma State won the first 24-16 and VPI won the second 34-32.
Last bowl game: Virginia Tech owns the second longest bowl streak in the country, with this being their 25th straight bowl game. The streak started with the 1993 Independence Bowl, where VPI beat Indiana 45-20. Last season, they defeated Arkansas 35-24 in the Belk Bowl. Oklahoma State has a pretty good run themselves, as this is this their twelth straight bowl game, starting with the 2006 Independence Bowl, a 34-31 win over Alabama. (Ah, the good ol’ days.) Last year they smoked Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, 38-8.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Anthony Becht

9:00: Texas Christian vs. Stanford (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): If Bryce Love’s ankle has had a chance to get healthy over the past few weeks off, then Stanford’s got a chance here. Otherwise, it’s hard to see Stanford generating enough offense to win.
S&P+ line: TCU by 4
Watchability tier: III (provisional, II if Bryce Love isn’t appreciably healthier)
Previous meetings: Just two, back in the 2007 and 2008 regular seasons. TCU won both 38-36 and 31-14, respectively.
Last bowl game: This is TCU’s fourth straight bowl game, going back to a 42-3 win over Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl in 2014. Last season they lost to Georgia 31-23 in the Liberty Bowl. Stanford’s got a nine game streak going themselves, going back to the 2009 Sun Bowl, which they lost 31-27 to Oklahoma. Last season they had a much better Sun Bowl experience, beating North Carolina 25-23.
Announcers: Rece Davis, Joey Galloway, and David Pollack

9:00: Michigan State vs. Washington State (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; FS1): The Spartans have managed to convert a 3-9 season last year into a 9-3 season this year, which is no small feat. However, so many of their wins were so flukey (see: the Michigan and Penn State games) that this team could easily be 7-5. Given that this game is in San Diego, I don’t think any monsoons are in the forecast (though Southern California could really use the rain), which means that I think Sparty will be too offensively limited to keep up with the Cougars.
S&P+ line: Sparty by 0.1
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Seven, and none of them in a bowl game, surprisingly. The first meeting was a 25-13 Wazzu win in 1942. The Spartans then reeled off 5 straight, only to lose in the last meeting back in 1977, 23-21.
Last bowl game: Sparty’s last bowl game was that 38-0 loss to Alabama in the 2015 Cotton Bowl, a playoff game. For Wazzu, this is their third straight bowl game. Two seasons ago they beat Miami in the Sun Bowl 20-14, and last season they lost to Minnesota 17-12 in the Holiday Bowl.
Announcers: Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt

Well, last Saturday was pretty much a disaster for me, as the only pick I got right was Troy over North Texas. Yet, we soldier on!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday, December 19
7:00: Akron vs. Florida Atlantic (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ESPN): Akron was definitely an okay MAC team, but at least on paper this is the biggest mismatch of bowl season. I expect the Fightin’ Lane Kiffins to win and win big.
S&P+ line: FAU by 22
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Akron’s first bowl game since the 2015 Potato Bowl, where they beat Utah State 23-21. For the Owls, this is their first bowl since the 2008 Motre City Bowl, where they beat Central Michigan 24-21.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Kirk Morrison

Wednesday, December 20
8:00: Southern Methodist vs. Louisiana Tech (Frisco Bowl @ Frisco, TX; ESPN): The Mustangs pretty much lost to anyone decent they played, but fortunately for them the Bulldogs aren’t really decent by any means. I have SMU here.
S&P+ line: SMU by 3.3
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: There’s four meetings, back to the brief period when both these teams were in C-USA from 2001-2004. LaTech holds a 3-1 lead in the series, including a 41-10 win in 2004.
Last bowl game: This is SMU’s first bowl since the 2012 Hawaii Bowl, where they beat Florida State 43-10. (Yeah, that bowl streak has some low points…) For the Bulldogs, this is their fourth bowl game in a row. Back in the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, they beat Illinois 35-18. Last season, they beat Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl 48-45.
Announcers: Mike Couzens and John Congemi

Thursday, December 21
8:00: Florida International vs. Temple (Gasparilla Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): If you like points, then this bowl is probably for you. I expect this game to be in the 30’s, but I’m going with Temple by a hair.
S&P+ line: FIU by 0.6
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is FIU’s first bowl since a previous incarnation of this game, the 2011 Beef ‘O’Brady’s Bowl, where they lost to Marshall 20-10. To use a phrase that, before 2009 or so I never thought I’d utter, this is Temple’s third straight bowl game. They lost 34-26 to Wake Forest in last year’s Military Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Mike Golic Jr.

Friday, December 22
12:30: Ohio vs. Alabama-Birmingham (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): The main reason this game is interesting is because UAB, after being killed off by a dumb Alabama power play conspiracy, managed to go 8-4 despite having not played in two years. Maybe on paper the Bobcats should win, but I don’t really care, I’m going for UAB because in some small way it might spite the University of Alabama.
S&P+ line: Ohio by 5.1
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Ohio’s thirds straight bowl game. They lost 28-23 to Troy in last year’s Dollar General Bowl. For UAB, this is their second bowl game ever. Their previous postseason appearance was in the 2004 Hawaii Bowl, where they lost to Hawaii 59-40.
Announcers: Steve Levy and Desmond Howard
Fun fact: Go Blazers!

4:00: Wyoming vs. Central Michigan (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): Home of the best logo of bowl season, we’ve got, well, the logo is probably better than this matchup. The hype and focus of the broadcast coverage will likely be Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who for whatever reason was tapped before the season as a potential NFL first round pick and never was able to shake the hype train, despite not even being the first, second, third, fourth, or fifth best passer in his conference. The Cowboys also finished with a bad loss to a terrible San Jose State team, though in fairness Allen missed that game and the one before with a shoulder injury (which is also making him questionable for this game, but I suspect he will dominate the conversation whether he plays or not). So yeah, the Chippewas had themselves a nice little season, reeling off five straight wins to close out the season. If Wyoming is without Allen, then I like CMU; with him I consider this a toss-up. Generally speaking, a Mountain West team should have more talent than a MAC team, but by all means Wyoming has had the more disappointing season, which tends to factor into bowl games.
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: These teams met in 2000 and 2002. Wyoming won the first 31-10 and CMU won the second 32-20.
Last bowl game: Wyoming appeared in the last ever Poinsettia Bowl last year, where they lost to BYU 24-21. This is the fourths straight bowl for Central Michigan. They started the streak with a 49-48 loss to Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl, and last year they lost 55-10 to Tusla in the Miami Beach Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Tom Ramsey

Saturday, December 23
Noon: Texas Tech vs. South Florida (Birmingham Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Wake up this Saturday with some points, because boy howdy will they be scored in this one. That said, Texas Tech isn’t really, like, that good? Their season started well enough, with a crazy shootout win over Arizona State and the obligatory blowout of Kansas, but then it careened off the rails with losses to everyone else in the Big 12 except Baylor and, crucially, Texas. That said, they’ll get there’s, but Quinton Flowers and company are pretty good at pointing up the numbers themselves and they can play defense. I expect that ability to get at least one stop to be the difference.
S&P+ line: USF by 8.1
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: For the Red Raiders, this is their first bowl since the 2015 Texas Bowl, where they lost 56-27 to LSU. This is USF’s third straight bowl game. They beat South Carolina 46-39 in last year’s edition of this game.
Announcers: Tom Hart and Gene Chizik

3:30: San Diego State vs. Army (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): Army is definitely the cool story here, with their 9-3 record propelling them to their best season since 1996, when they went 10-2. Unfortunately, that story ended with a close loss to Auburn in the Independence Bowl. This game may set a bowl record for least pass attempts, as both teams prefer to run the ball. The Aztecs feature a traditional feature back in Rashad Penny, who was the FBS’s leader in rushing yards this year. Army nominally features an option attack, but they mostly feature quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw (5th in FBS in rushing) making various off-tackle and power runs to either side of the lines. In other words, this will be the complete opposite of the Birmingham Bowl. I think by the nature of these offenses the game will be close, but I think SDSU is slightly better.
S&P+ line: SDSU by 3.4
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: SDSU holds a 2-0 series lead, with a 23-20 win in 2011 and a 42-7 win in 2012.
Last bowl game: The Aztecs just keep on truckin’, as this is their eighth straight bowl appearance. The streak started with a 35-14 win over Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, and most recently they beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. Army won last year’s Heart of Dallas Bowl 38-31 over North Texas. For Army, this is the first they’ve had consecutive bowl bids since the 1984 Cherry Bowl and the 1985 Peach Bowl.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Mack Brown

7:00: Toledo vs. Appalachian State (Dollar General Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): For the most part, this Toledo team is one that finally broke through and won the MAC, and usually in dominating fashion. That said, they don’t really come in with a prestige win, per se; the only Power 5 team they played was Miami and they got shallacked, and they also have an ugly loss to Ohio. Appalachian State finished as co-champions of the Sun Belt, but that’s mostly because they dodged the other two good teams in the Sun Belt (Troy and Arkansas State) in conference play. Overall, I think the Rockets are a better team and while this won’t get them the prestige win they’re looking for, it should be a fun contest.
S&P+ line: Toledo by 3.1
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: These teams met in last year’s Camellia Bowl. The Mountaineers won 31-28.
Last bowl game: For the Rockets, this is their fourth straight bowl game, going back to the 2014-15 Godaddy.com Bowl (a previous incarnation of this game), where they beat Arkansas State 63-44. For the Mountaineers, this is their third straight bowl game and first appearance in a game other than the Camellia Bowl. In that 2015 game, they beat Ohio 31-29. Maybe next time they can get a bowl game outside the state of Alabama, though if they somehow got a Birmingham Bowl bid I’m sure that would be some sort of unique record.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Matt Stinchcomb

Sunday, December 24
8:30: Fresno State vs. Houston (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): This should be a pretty good Hawaii Bowl, all things considered. Fresno isn’t that adept at scoring the ball, but unlike many of Houston’s opponents they can actually defend. Of course, that’s assuming we’re talking about the gun-slinging Houston of old, which we aren’t. Given that, I expect Fresno to grind it out and get a close, hard fought win.
S&P+ line: Fresno State by 0.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Fresno State fans would probably prefer not to remember their previous bowl appearance, a 30-6 beatdown at the hands of Rice (of all teams!) in the 2014 Hawaii Bowl. For the Cougars, this is their fifth straight bowl game, going back to the 2013 BBVA Compass Bowl, where they lost to Vanderbilt 41-24. They lost last year’s Las Vegas Bowl to San Diego State, 34-10.
Announcers: Chris Cotter and Rod Gilmore

The holiday season? Eh, that’s all well and good, but now it’s the reason for the season: that’s right, bowl games! Why are there 39 of them this year, you ask? Because one of them went out of business! Why were there previously 40, you ask? Well, because live sports are about the only thing that makes money on TV anymore!

This year’s preview of all the action includes a new Watchability Rating. I mean, let’s face it, you’re going to have these games on at least in the background anyway because it’s not like anything else is on. But nonetheless, I’m here to help you prioritize. To wit, here’s the four tiers:

• I: Background noise, or maybe just the background thing on TV while you have some Christmas music on.
• II: You’ll at least have the volume turned up, because, hey, it’s college football, anything can happen.
• III: Your family member who likes college football will be actively watching this, telling you about how Mizzou got a lot better in the second half the season as they rediscovered their offense and their schedule got easier.
• IV: Marquee games, like playoff games as well as quality bowl matchups featuring good teams.

Also new are S&P+ lines, which are based on the differences on the S&P+ ratings produced by Bill Connelly. Since Connelly uses gauges this against Vegas lines, I thought it’d be useful to look at these numbers.

With all that said, let’s look over tomorrow’s opening slate! The full slate is, of course, here.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

1:00: North Texas vs. Troy (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Troy has made perhaps the best coaching hire of the season, by which I mean they were able to retain rising star Neal Brown for another year. By all rights, with the win over LSU the Trojans should’ve been 11-1 this year, but they blew that chance by putting up a result even more inexplicable than their win in Baton Rouge: losing a week later at home to South Alabama. North Texas was a respectable 9-4 this year, but they never looked that impressive doing it even though they won Conference-USA West. I’m going with Troy.
S&P+ line: Troy by 3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Ten total meetings, dating to when both were in the Sun Belt. The first was in 2001, an 18-16 win by Troy, and the last was in 2012, a 14-7 win for Troy. Troy leads the overall series 8-2.
Last bowl game: North Texas appeared in last year’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, losing 38-31 to Army. Troy defeated Ohio 28-23 in last year’s Dollar General Bowl.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Kelly Stouffer

2:30: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): Whenever I’m alone with you
You make me feel like I am home again
Whenever I’m alone with you
You make me feel like I am whole again

However far away
I will always love you
However long I stay
I will always love you
Whatever words I say
I will always love you
I will always love you
I’ve got WKU here.
S&P+ line: WKU by 3.8
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just one, a 44-28 Western Kentucky victory back in 2013.
Last bowl game: For the Hilltoppers, this is their fourth straight bowl game. They beat Memphis 51-31 in last year’s Boca Raton Bowl. This is Georgia State’s second ever bowl appearance. Their first appearance was a 27-16 loss to San Jose State in the 2015 Cure Bowl.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor

3:30: Oregon vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): I actually like the Ducks here. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching situation affects them, but they ended their season pretty strong except for a 38-3 faceplant up in Seattle. Boise was back to its old ways in the Mountain West. What this means, ultimately, is that this the game of the day, by far.
S&P+ line: Boise State by 1.6
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just two, in 2008 and 2009. Boise won both games, but the most infamous moment in either game in the 2009 when, after the game, LaGarrette Blount sucker punched a Boise State defensive linemen right in the jaw. Blount wound up getting suspended and kicked off the team, but has gone on to punch it into the end zone 51 times in the NFL.
Last bowl game: This is the first bowl game for the Ducks since the 2015 season, where they lost 47-41 to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. For the Broncos, this is their 16th straight bowl game, dating back to the 2002 Humanitarian Bowl, a 34-16 win over Iowa State. Last year they were defeated 31-12 by Baylor in the Cactus Bowl.
Announcers: Rece Davis and Kirk Herbstreit

4:30: Colorado State vs. Marshall (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): This season just never got going for the Rams. After starting 6-2, they’d finish 7-5 including close losses to Wyoming and Boise State. Marshall’s season followed a similar trajectory, starting 6-1 before going 1-4 to close out the year. This comes down to how you feel about the relative quality of the Mountain West versus C-USA, which for me makes me lean slightly toward the Rams.
S&P+ line: Rams by 2.8
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Colorado State’s fifth straight bowl game dating back to the 2013 New Mexico Bowl, a 48-45 win over Washington State. Last year they lost to Idaho 60-51 in the Potato Bowl. This is Marshall’s first bowl since the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl, a 16-10 win over UConn.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks

8:00: Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): Arkansas State also boasts a weird loss to South Alabama and a kind of “is this really happening?” loss to Troy which got some Twitter notoriety a couple weekends ago. That said, I like them over MTSU, who may just be happy just to be bowling. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!)
S&P+ line: RedWolves by 8.2
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Former Sun Belt foes, MTSU holds a 9-5 all-time lead, including two wins way back in 1948 and 1949. Their last meting was back in 2012, a 45-0 Arkansas State shutout.
Last bowl game: This is the third straight bowl for the Blue Raiders, dating back to a 45-31 loss to Western Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl. Last season they lost 52-35 to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. For the Red Wolves, this is their seventh straight bowl game, dating back to the 2011-2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl, a 38-20 loss to Northern Illinois. Last season they defeated Central Florida 31-13 in the Cure Bowl.
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Andre Ware

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9th
8:30: Clemson vs. Alabama (College Football Playoff Championship Game @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): I looked over the post I made for this matchup last year and, well, most of it still applies. So let’s break this down by unit.
The place to start is the unit that’s been in the news for most of the past week: the Alabama offense. Coordinated by Lane Kiffin for most of the past three years, culminating with this season’s relatively wide-open offense headed up by a mobile freshman quarterback. This is not the Alabama blueprint we’ve come to be familiar with. However, Alabama has yet to face a defensive line the quality of Clemson’s, except maybe for LSU. The final score in that game? 10-0. There’s also the reason they’ve been in the news: Lane Kiffin by all accounts wanted to continue to coach Alabama in the playoffs before heading off to his new gig, but was forced out. Subsequently, the Tide promoted one of their video room guys, former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian, to offensive coordinator. Since he wasn’t a coach, he wasn’t on the sidelines on gamedays and (was supposed to have) had little contact with the players at all. It’s easy to speculate on the impact this will have, but that’s all I’d be doing. So I’ll just stick to figuring it’ll make some difference either way.
The Clemson offense, meanwhile, returned Deshaun Watson and virtually all their skill players from last year’s team. While at times lacking focus this season, they responded emphatically when it mattered, as Ohio State found out last week. Again, the chess match in this game is the Clemson offense versus the Alabama defense.
The Tide defense is practically legendary at this point. There simply isn’t a better defense in college football. But if there’s anyone that’s not scared of these guys, it’s Clemson. They put up 40 last year and nearly won the game. Will Saban and go be prepared to counter them this year? How will they respond to things Clemson hasn’t done before? We saw how that went for Ohio State last week.
The Clemson defense isn’t as well know, but they’re almost as good, especially on the defense line. They lived in the Ohio State backfield most of last week. I figured the Buckeyes had a giid chance in that game because they’d have the athletes to do what most ACC offensive lines couldn’t, which is block them. I was dead wrong. Ohio State looked confused and disoriented most of the night along the line, which made the Buckeye offense dead in the water. The question is, can I talk myself into thinking the Alabama offensive line can block them? I’m not sure.
For all the hand-wringing about the playoffs going into this game, it definitely feels like we got the best two teams in one place. Few other teams this season were as dominant on both sides of the ball. And from watching the games last week and thinking about it for the past week, I have talked myself into a slight Clemson upset. They’ve got plenty of experience, and they’re going to be motivated to take care of business this year.
Previous meetings: Obviously, the most recent meeting between these two was in last year’s game, which Alabama won 45-40. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that still means they haven’t beaten Alabama since October 25, 1905 and they’re 3-13 against the Tide all time.
Last bowl game: Technically, their previous round matchups against Ohio State and Washington, respectively. See that post for the details.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit