Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 7

Okay, sorry they’re late, but I did the research for the first time this year and learned several important facts. Since these facts mostly affect the CFP and its related bowls, let’s start there.

CFP

First off, my playoff standings are pretty well in line right now. I’m predicting Michigan State will beat Iowa Saturday, in addition to Alabama and Clemson winning, so I have my top four as such:

  1. Clemson (Orange)
  2. Alabama (Cotton)
  3. Oklahoma (Cotton)
  4. Michigan State (Orange)

Three of these teams play Saturday with varying degrees of affecting the above scenario.

  • If Iowa beats Michigan State, they’re in. This is the easiest.
  • Clemson or Alabama losing really throws a spanner into the works. I don’t think anyone really considers North Carolina or Florida playoff material, but who then steps in? If only one loses, then the main beneficiary is probably Ohio State. If both loses, then it’s going to be the Buckeyes… and who, exactly? The only remaining 1-loss team is North Carolina. Would a Pac-12 champion Stanford get in over them, even with two losses? Could a 1-loss Clemson get in anyway? The mind reels.

It looks like right now the Big Ten will be a three-bid conference. I also originally had the Big 12 as getting three bids, but no one seems to agree with me, so I put Florida State in and shuffled things around (this is part of why it took so long).

I also found out that for four of the major conferences, the next highest team from that conference in the CFP Poll gets the conference’s designated bowl, if it has one that particular year. The exception is the Big 12, which sends its second place team, which means that as it stands (assuming they win Saturday) Baylor will be the Big 12’s second team.

I also found out that Florida State is pretty highly ranked, which came as a total surprise to me because a) I haven’t paid a lot of attention to the CFP Poll (since the only that matters will come out on Sunday) and b) they lost to us, so I assumed they wouldn’t be ranked very highly. But their only other loss to #1 Clemson, so I guess that’s working out for them.

As a result, I have the other CFP Bowls lined up as such:

  • Peach: Iowa vs. Florida State
  • Fiesta: Houston vs. Notre Dame
  • Rose: Ohio State vs. Stanford
  • Sugar: Baylor vs. Mississippi

Fun, right? So let’s talk about the major conferences real quick.

ACC

Even if they lose Saturday, I think North Carolina will still be the Russell Athletic Bowl’s most attractive option unless Florida State falls to them. From there, most of the wrangling involves figuring out which bowls will want Frank Beamer’s last game. I suspect the Military Bowl wants the Hokies back, but that they’ll get snatched by the Belk Bowl first. There’s also trying to figure out the TaxSlayer/Music City situation for this year, but I’m betting that they’ll swap this year, resulting in Miami going to the TaxSlayer.

The ACC has 8 affiliated bowl games outside of the CFP, and if they do indeed send two to the CFP, then they will be one team short.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward, given all the restrictions placed on the bowl games over their contracts. (In other words, look for the games to avoid having the same team twice any time soon.) The Big Ten has eight affiliated non-CFP bowls, and by sending three teams to the CFP, they will be three teams short.

Big 12

The only place where I broke rank for the Big 12 was putting Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl ahead of West Virginia, which if they can get a TTU-TAMU matchup will probably happen. The Big 12 will be two teams short this year.

Pac-12

Despite nine conference games supposedly being the death knell for bowl eligibility, the Pac-12 is the only major conference with a surplus of teams this year. Barring a calamity this Saturday, the Pac-12 will only be sending its champion to a CFP game, so they’re not getting a lot of relief there. However, all these teams will play in bowl games, the problem is figuring out where, and unfortunately my research was not very helpful on this front. Currently, I have California, Washington, and Arizona as my extra teams. Those will probably remain guesses until Sunday.

SEC

Without a quarterback, Florida looks dead in the water, but hey, stranger things have happened. (Probably.) Barring a Gator victory, though, the SEC is going to be a two-bid league this year, with Alabama and Mississippi likely getting the honors.

Outside of that, the SEC is still a mess. What does one do with the damaged goods Gators, for instance? I still have them in the Citrus Bowl (the SEC’s top non-CFP spot), but the Citrus could also take Georgia or LSU. Of course, how do to the coaching changes (or lack thereof) affect those two schools’ standing? Based on my research, the TaxSlayer will probably take Georgia or LSU, but the Outback would prefer Georgia or Tennessee. The Vols could end up in the Belk, Music City, Liberty, or Outback. I have them in the Music City, but that could change Saturday night. We’ll see.

Everyone Else

It should have been banner year for the Group of Five, who, for the first time I can, recall, will get all their eligible teams into bowl games. Since a lot of these will be at-large bids, that’s additional revenue for these conferences and schools, so it’s a boon for them. Of course, the MAC is the only conference that’s really taking advantage, with two extra teams (though the Mountain West also has an extra team). A major contributer to the lack-of-eligible-teams crisis is Conference USA, which has seven bowl games lined up, but only five eligible teams.

Indeed, let’s talk about that lack of teams. Currently, I have 75 eligible teams, leaving me five short. I suspect that’s where I’ll end up, but here’s the other teams that could get eligible Saturday:

  • Kansas State, if they defeat West Virginia
  • Georgia State, if they defeat Georgia Southern
  • South Alabama, if they defeat Appalachian State

So that means we’ll need somewhere between two to five teams with losing records. Here are the teams next in line, in order, courtesy ESPN:

  • Nebraska
  • Missouri (won’t accept)
  • Kansas State
  • Minnesota
  • San Jose State
  • Illinois
  • Rice

Some of those are ties, but I listed them out in the order most likely to be selected. In general, it’s thought that these teams would still be bound to their conference’s bowl contracts, where applicable. In the most likely scenario (five teams needed), that likely means Nebraska to the Foster Farms, Kansas State to the Cactus (which would have a currently unknown knock-on effect in the Mountain West), Minnesota to the Quick Lane, and then San Jose State and Illinois to the remaining two bowls needing at-large teams (probably the Cure Bowl and the Heart of Dallas Bowl).

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/28

Men, Georgie’s a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie’s bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That’s okay, because we’re smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what’s going to happen. That Georgie team’s going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won’t do any of that. While they waste their energy, we’ll conserve ours. I’ve told you that they’re bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That’s true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We … are … smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we’ll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they’ll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we’re smart, we’ll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they’ll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we’ll get the football. And when that happens, I’ll think of something and we’ll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

It’s the last full weekend of the year. Ready?

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Michigan (ABC): Ohio State looks suddenly more vulnerable after the loss to Michigan State, where their offense was thoroughly dominated. However, I would think it unwise to bet those mistakes will be repeated again. Going with the Buckeyes.
  • Clemson @ South Carolina (ESPN): The Tigers look to make it two in a row against their in-state rivals, and considering all the turmoil in Columbia that seems very likely.
  • Georgia @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): To Hell With Georgia.
  • Iowa State @ West Virginia (FS1): Iowa State fired Paul Rhodes, which doesn’t really solve the fundamental problem of them being Iowa State. West Virginia should roll.
  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ESPNU): Okay, I think I got a little overenthusiastic last week, but this time, they should be able to win one for the Beamer.
  • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): Memphis is on the AAC West sidelines now, but they’re still have an extremely successful season. Will they be able to retain their coach? Either way, they’ll steamroll the Ponies.
  • Louisville @ Kentucky (SEC): Considering all the alternatives available, I have a hard time conceiving of a reason to watch this, but hey, it’s football, and it’ll all be gone too soon. Also, Louisville should roll.
  • Cincinnati @ East Carolina (CBSS): I’ve pretty much given up trying to figure out what Cincinnati will do week-to-week in the AAC, considering that I still get hung up thinking they should be the best team in the conference. I’m still pretty sure they’re better than ECU, though. Kinda.
  • Indiana @ Purdue (BTN): Indiana should be able to cap-off a successful, by Indiana standards, with a win here.

12:30:

  • Duke @ Wake Forest (ACC): Duke has lost four straight since beating Virginia Tech, including a rather disappointing loss to Virginia last weekend. (Yes, Duke can have disappointing losses now.) Either way, they should still be able to beat Wake.
  • Boston College @ Syracuse (ACC/RSN): ‘Sup Big East? Anyway, BC’s offense is so bad that I can’t realistically predict them to win anything since they seem completely in capable of scoring points. I’ll bet if they win this one it’s because of multiple defensive scores.

2:30: Colorado @ Utah (Pac12): In a battle of the Pac-12’s neophytes, it’s still amazing how far ahead Utah is of Colorado now. Even though the Utes had a bit of a slide at the end of the year, eliminating them from Pac-12 South contention, they’re still favorites here.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Auburn (CBS): Auburn apparently just needs to be rebooted every few years. Check back in for a competitive Iron Bowl in a year or two.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (ABC/ESPN2): The battle of the fancy uniforms (both teams wear their “home” jerseys in this game, because LA I guess?) is also the battle for the Pac-12 South this year. Both teams could have their seasons reasonably described as “uneven”. USC is fresh off a pasting by a suddenly resurgent Oregon, while UCLA got a crucial win in Salt Lake City to eliminate Utah from contention, but lost to Wazzou two weeks ago. So this one’s pretty much a toss-up in my mind. I’m giving the Bruins a slight edge.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN2): I’m not entirely sure who Wolfpack fans think is their greatest rival. Nonetheless, UNC should have this one unless their concentration slips.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan State (ESPN): I don’t… think Sparty will have a letdown after their huge win over Ohio State. Probably.
  • Northwestern vs. Illinois (@Chicago, IL; ESPNU): While Illinois is still better this year than they have any right to be, I like the Wildcats here.
  • Brigham Young @ Utah State (CBSS): BYU should be able to handle this.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (BTN): Hey Wisconsin, didn’t see you sneaking up there, which is pretty humorous when you consider the typical build of their linemen. Regardless, this battle for the Axe may be close, but it’ll be the Badgers’ in the end.

4:00:

  • Kansas State @ Kansas (FS1): While it’s not K-State’s year, a blowout over KU should act as a nice salve.
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (SEC): Vandy and Mizzou are having a content to see who can field the most awful offense in the SEC, and currently Missouri is “winning” by eight points. It’ll be a close race to the end.

    7:00: Connecticut @ Temple (ESPNU): Way mess things up, Huskies. I suspect as a result of last week’s upset over Houston they’ll get pasted here.

    7:15: Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): After mostly disappointing seasons, these two teams enter their final game in a high note. I’m thinking they’re about even, so I’m giving an edge to the home Bulldogs.

    7:30:

    • Notre Dame @ Stanford (FOX): I have no idea who is going to win this game. I’ve watched a lot of both these teams this year and I think that the Cardinal are more than capable of handing Notre Dame their second loss. This game is right up there with Bedlam for game of the day, and I would advise to find some way of watching both at once. As for the winner here, I’m going with the Domers, by a smidge.
    • Florida State @ Florida (ESPN): Florida sure looks bad without their quarterback, huh? That said, I think they’re still capable of beating FSU like 12-10, but if FSU scores 17 or more I don’t think the Gators will be able to match.
    • Texas A&M @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU is going to win this game, and then Les Miles is going to get fired. The world is dumb.

    8:00: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Bedlam. After a weirdly long Sooner winning streak, these teams are 2-2 against each other with two of those games going to overtime. This rivalry has always struck me as more fun and weird than most, and under the lights in Stillwater with everything on the line I’m sure we’ll have both. I’m leaning toward the Sooners, but I have zero confidence in that pick.

    9:00: Colorado State @ Fresno State (CBSS): This is not, as far as I know, a rivalry, but will put to rest an unfun season for Fresno State.

    10:00: Arizona State @ California (FS1): Arizona State beat Arizona, Cal lost to Stanford. Will there be a hangover here from last weekend, and if so, in which direction? Hard to say. Going with the Sun Devils.

    10:15: Air Force @ New Mexico (ESPNU): Hope you like the option in this one. I like the Falcons here.

    10:45: Nevada @ San Diego State (ESPN2): And finally, the end. I hope by the time you get here, you’re decompressing from however you enjoyed (or didn’t) your rivalry game and are treating the last full day of college football appropriately. Have fun, stay safe, and the Aztecs probably have this one.

    THWG Thought of the Day: 11/27

    We’re toning it down a bit this year, but on the flip side we’re attending the contest for the first time in ten years.

    First, a classic:

     
    Like Wake Forest or Maryland or somebody… 

    And some quality animated GIFs, though from unrelated bouts of UGA misery:

    To Hell With Georgia

    This Week in College Football: Week 13

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Thursday
    7:30:

    • South Florida @ Central Florida (ESPN): UCF continues its quest to become one of the worst teams in the history of college football with a visit from a surging USF squad. I’d stick to the other game.
    • Texas Tech @ Texas (FS1): At 4-6, Texas isn’t out of the bowl picture yet (especially with the “being short of teams” business) but time is running out for the ‘Horns. The Fighting Kingsburys recently got back into form after a 3-game losing streak by putting up 56 on K-State, so they figure to have the advantage here.

    Friday
    Noon:

    • Navy @ Houston (ABC): This one’s tough to judge. These are both solid teams with potent offenses. Navy did beat Memphis by a larger margin, so I’m giving a slight edge to the Midshipmen.
    • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): I like Pitt a lot in this late season ACC tilt. Miami’s “mailing it in” status seems to vary based on the opponent, so we’ll see.
    • Marshall @ Western Kentucky (FS1): If last year’s contest is any indication, then this will be one of the most exciting games of the weekend. Western Kentucky’s looked slightly better on the year, so I’ll go with them.
    • Western Michigan @ Toledo (CBSS): Toledo should have this one.

    2:30: Missouri @ Arkansas (CBS): Well, Mizzou has no offense basically, which makes this an apparently easy pick for the ‘Hogs, but you never know with the Fightin’ Berts.

    3:30:

    • Washington State @ Washington (FOX): It’s a bit of an inversion in the Apple Cup this year, eh? Three months after everyone was writing off Mike Leach and Co., they’re one of the mot improved teams of the year. I suspect coaches would take that sort of result against Portland State if it meant more seasons like this. So, yeah, I like the Cougs here.
    • Iowa @ Nebraska (ABC): Someone, please, help? Anyone? I have to go with the Hawkeyes, though.
    • Boise State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Boise’s down this year, but that happens sometimes. They should be able to beat the Spartans.

    4:00: Oregon State @ Oregon (FS1): Oregon’s looked more like, well, themselves the past few weeks, which does not bode well for Oregon State at all.

    4:30: Massachusetts @ Buffalo (ESPNU): Buffalo is mediocre. UMass is terrible. Easy pick!

    7:30: Baylor @ Texas Christian (ESPN): Game of the day, except that everyone’s hurt. However, Baylor seems to have the much, much better Plan B, so I’m giving them a slight edge.

    8:00: Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPNU): Well, Tulane just fired their coach, so… Tulsa?