Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 3

Hotter and fresher than even a Little Ceaser’s pizza, you can get the latest predictions here.

Thanks to some upsets last weekend, I only needed two 5-7 teams this time (as opposed to four last time). With 77 teams having already clinched eligibility, that means I don’t need a lot of upsets to get there. Let’s take a quick look at every game involving a 5-6 team heading into this weekend:

  • Oregon State (5-6) @ Boise State: The Beavers won’t be favored in this one, but Boise has gotten by with closer margins the past few weeks. For now, I don’t have them in.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (5-6): Wisconsin is a slight favorite here, but I don’t have them in.
  • Kansas (5-6) @ Baylor: KU’s vastly improved play the past few weeks isn’t completely reflected in SP+ yet, so I still have them winding up 5-7. It absolutely will not shock me if they win.
  • Louisiana @ Louisiana-Monroe (5-6): hard to see ULM pulling this off.
  • North Texas (5-6) @ Temple: UNT is absolutely favored here and I have them in.
  • Eastern Michigan (5-6) @ Western Michigan (5-6): The Michigan MAC Trophy and bowl eligibility are on the line here.
  • Coastal Carolina (5-6) @ Georgia State: CCU is absolutely favored here and I have them in.
  • Auburn (5-6) @ Alabama: this would be hilarious, but no.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan State (5-6): SP+ has Rutgers as about a 6 point favorite, but the Spartans could absolutely win this one.
  • North Carolina State (5-6) @ North Carolina: the Pack would have to spoil Mack Brown’s swan song, so I don’t see it.
  • Texas Christian @ Cincinnati (5-6): SP+ has Cincy as about an 8 point underdog, so I don’t have them in. But they could absolutely win this game.
  • Virginia (5-6) @ Virginia Tech (5-6): self-explanatory.
  • New Mexico (5-6) @ Hawaii: SP+ has the Lobos as an underdog, so I don’t have them in, but they could absolute win this game.

By my count, that’s 5 very plausible upsets. So we could possibly have too many bowl eligible teams. It’s happened before, and a new bowl game was invented on the spot to accommodate them, so it figures that it will happen again.

We’ll know how everything falls after this weekend, which makes the predictions next week one of the most important I do.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

7:00:

  • Toledo @ Akron (ESPN2): Toledo has scuffed a bit this season, but I don’t see them having trouble here.
  • Buffalo @ Kent State (ESPN+)

Thursday

2:00: Tuskegee @ Alabama State (ESPNU)

7:30: Memphis @ Tulane (ESPN): What may well be the defacto AAC title game promises to have stakes. This is a game Memphis team for sure, but Tulane has looked every bit the part of a G5 spoiler for the playoff. I like the Green Wave here.

Friday

Noon:

  • Navy @ East Carolina (ESPN): ECU is better than anyone expected, but I think Navy will still handle them.
  • Oklahoma State @ Colorado (ABC): The Buffs lost last week, but the Pokes are a good “get right” matchup for just about anyone this season.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (CBS): The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe should be feisty this time. These teams both are doing their best impersonate of the mediocre Big Ten West teams of the past. I like the Gophers a bit here, but both are taking some serious losing streaks into this one.
  • Oregon State @ Boise State (FOX): Good on the Beavs for beating a tired Wazzu last weekend, but provided Ashton Jeanty is healthy I think Boise is well prepared to split the season series against teams from Oregon.
  • Miami @ Bowling Green (ESPNU): This is a battle of two of the three best teams in the MAC. I think Bowling Green holds serve at home, but this could be the game to watch in this time slot.
  • Ball State @ Ohio (CBSS): Barring an upset here, the Bobcats are heading to Detroit next weekend to face the winner of the above game. Get some Black Friday MACtion, y’all.

3:30:

  • Utah State @ Colorado State (FS1): The Rams had the temerity to lose to Fresno, so now they’ve got a Mountain West loss are probably on the outside looking in at the Mountain West title game. They should still handle the Aggies, though.
  • Mississippi State @ Mississippi (“Egg Bowl”; ABC): It’s a bummer that this is no longer the Thanksgiving night game, but let’s face it, this year’s edition wouldn’t have exactly been appointment television.
  • Liberty @ Sam Houston State (CBSS): Liberty losing to Kennesaw is right up there with Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois in terms of bizarre upsets this year. But yeah, for the most part the Libs shouldn’t really have trouble with anyone else in Conference USA.
  • Texas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

4:00: Stanford @ San Jose State (“Bill Walsh Legacy Game”; CBS): I like San Jose to win this one, straight up. It boggles the mind that the Cardinal would ever head down 101 to SJSU, but between them being very, very mediocre to bad and coming off a dispiriting loss to Cal, I don’t like their chances here.

7:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”; ABC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Nebraska @ Iowa (NBC): Nebraska finally got the monkey off their back and beat Wisconsin last weekend to get bowl eligible. Good on them, because the odds they’d do it against this cromulent Iowa outfit were pretty low.

8:00: Utah @ Central Florida (FOX): Neither of these teams are especially good. Hopefully this is still within reach for either team after the 7:30 games wrap up. If I had to pick someone here, I’d probably go with UCF, since they can actually play offense.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Mississippi @ Florida (ABC): Gators, do your part to try to prevent the SEC from getting four teams in. Please.
  • Indiana @ Ohio State (FOX): Sigh. I love what Indiana, one of the most woebegone programs in n major college football, has the chance to do here. The problem is, I don’t really think they can.
  • Wake Forest @ Miami (ESPN): The Canes got got once, they’ll be fine herem
  • Southern Methodist @ Virginia (ESPN2): I guess SMU is actually good? What a weird first year in the conference for them, but it seems like it’s working out.
  • North Carolina @ Boston College (The CW): I had a UNC grad tell me this week their defense is better this year. I mean, I understand the bar is low, but still. I like BC here.
  • Iowa @ Maryland (BTN): Iowa. I otherwise don’t wanna think about this.
  • Yale @ Harvard (ESPNU)
  • Connecticut @ Syracuse (ACCN): UConn is bowl eligible, but the Orange are gonna… bowl over them.
  • Sam Houston State @ Jacksonville State (CBSS): Jax State?
  • Illinois @ Rutgers (Peacock)

12:45: Massachusetts @ Georgia (SEC): Presumably UGA won’t get caught looking ahead to next week here.

1:00:

  • Texas-El Paso @ Tennessee (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Liberty (ESPN+)

1:30: Charleston Southern @ Florida State (ACCNX)

2:00:

  • Bowling Green @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Montana @ Montana State (“The Brawl of the Wild”; ESPN+)

2:30:

  • James Madison @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Florida International @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
  • Arizona @ Texas Christian (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Kentucky @ Texas (ABC): Hey, name Texas’s best win. It’s cool, I can wait. It would be hilarious if Kentucky wins, but I’m still not holding my breath.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Minnesota (CBS): I think the Gophers can win, but it remains the position of this website that James Franklin will be the first head coach to lose home playoff game.
  • Colorado @ Kansas (@Kansas City, MO; FOX): Kansas is fully back, but I’ve learned my lesson about picking against Colorado.
  • Brigham Young @ Arizona State (ESPN): Arizona State is better than you think. This seems like the Big 12 upset of the day.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (FS1): Wolverines. Next!
  • The Citadel @ Clemson (The CW)
  • Wisconsin @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska, please win this so I don’t have to hear about you losing 7 in a row.
  • Central Florida @ West Virginia (ESPNU): WVU?
  • Stanford @ California (“The Big Game”; ACCN): The cognitive dissonance of seeing this game on the ACC Network is still strong. As for the game itself, it’ll be wet but this should be Cal all the way.
  • San Diego State @ Utah State (CBSS): Aztecs?
  • Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
  • East Carolina @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Tulsa @ South Florida (ESPN+)
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Pittsburgh @ Louisville (ESPN2): I assume Louisville won’t completely botch the end of a game two weeks in a row, right? Right?
  • Louisiana Tech @ Arkansas (ESPN+)
  • Wofford @ South Carolina (ESPN+)

4:15: Missouri @ Mississippi State (SEC): Mizzou. Next!

5:00: Troy @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@New York City, NY; NBC): This is probably the most important Army-Notre Dame game since 1946. Unfortunately, I’m not sure Army has much of a chance, but we’ll find out.
  • Baylor @ Houston (FS1): Bears all the way here.
  • Washington State @ Oregon State (The CW): It’s the Pac-12 championship game. It’ll be worth a peek, but the Beavers are just too inept offensively to keep up with Wazzu.
  • Boise State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Wyoming’s rush defense versus the best running back in college football. Next!
  • Georgia State @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Alabama @ Oklahoma (ABC): Bama. Next!
  • Iowa State @ Utah (FOX): Clones?
  • Texas A&M @ Auburn (ESPN): Aggies.
  • Marshall @ Old Dominion (ESPNU): Herd.

7:45: Vanderbilt @ Louisiana State (SEC): Vandy winning this one might be even funnier than when they beat Bama. Not saying it’ll happen, but…

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Cincy is getting better, but still going with K-State.
  • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACCN): VPI. Next!

10:15: Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (NBC): Neither of the teams is good, but the colors will be pretty and USC will win easily.

10:30:

  • Air Force @ Nevada (FS1): Wolf pack. Next!
  • Colorado State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Here’s your fantastic late night game. The Rams are better than anyone thought, and Fresno is one of the measuring sticks in this league. I like the Rams but I like the chances of this being a good game better.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. (Also apologies to the MACtion games that already happened this week.)

Thursday

7:30: North Carolina State @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): I’m not entirely sure how we beat Miami two years in a row. It’s not that both were due to bizarre Mario Cristobal clock decisions (though by golly he tried this time around). At any rate, this is more even contest that is sandwiched between last week’s season-defining win and next week’s… well, you know. I personally have fond memories of Thursday night home games, and I think this will be more of a watch than whatever dreck the NFL is shoving out this week (for the record, it’s Steelers-Browns, so yeah, watch this instead). It’ll be interesting to see if the bye week did us any good. We made the two-QB thing work against Miami, but I’m pretty sure if there’s some way Haynes King can actually throw the ball again it’d improve our chances.

Friday

7:00: Temple @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN2): It’s been an adjustment for UTSA after Frank Harris’s move to the sidelines, but they’re figured it out the past couple of weeks against some of the other better AAC schools. Temple shouldn’t pose an obstacle.

8:00: Purdue @ Michigan State (FOX): No one is making you watch this. Purdue is possibly the worst team in the Power 4, and while the Spartans are not great themselves, this shouldn’t be close.

10:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ San Jose State (FS1): This game promises some fireworks. The Rebels are freshly ranked, but SJSU is not a pushover (at least, when not facing Ashton Jeanty). I like UNLV here, but this should be a fun Friday night in San Jose. (Might be kind of wet, too.)

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 2

They’re hot and ready here. Let’s actually talk about the process a little bit this week.

Step 1 is to project out each team’s record. To make it slightly less vibes-based, I use SP+ to project each team’s remaining matchups. I ignore any team with 8 or more losses, as there’s no chance for them to make a bowl game. Step 2 is to project the playoff. This was hard when it was the BCS, slightly harder when it was the 4-team playoff, and now with 12? All bets are off, but I’m trying my best. This is also why the new projections tend to come out after the new rankings, as I use the current rankings to try to gain some insight into the Committee’s thinking. Almost certainly the most controversial choice I made was putting Indiana in over Tennessee. If what everyone thinks will happen to the Hoosiers happens this weekend, next week’s ranking will be very useful to determine if they still have a shot.

Step 3 is to start filling in the bowls based on the non-playoff teams. I start with the Power 4 and the zombie Pac-12, as their tie-ins are slightly less to the whims of what ESPN decides to do. After that, I start filling in the G5 teams as needed. The conference matchups you see on the page are more or less… guidelines, and generally speaking for any ESPN Events-owned bowl just about anything can happen. This makes this process maddening, but I’ve been doing this since 1999 and I’m not going to stop now.

Step 4 is to then determine what, if any, backfill is needed. Right now the projected record leaves me 4 teams sort of the 6-6 mark. There’s no transitioning teams this season that will be bowl-eligible, so we go straight to APR ranking the projected 5-7 teams. That’s how Cincinnati, Central Florida, Virginia, and Boston College got in this week. It could well be different next week, as upsets tend to add more 6-6 teams.

As a reminder, I have no special insight into what anyone who is responsible for these games is actually thinking. I don’t really keep track of the accuracy of the projections because of this. It’s gotten harder over time, but it’s still a fun exercise.

Some quick sports-columnist-esque notes on the matchups:

  • Boise State’s best “win” is almost certainly going to be their 3-point less to Oregon back in September.
  • I don’t really love that 8 of the 12 spots are going to the Big Ten and SEC, and I love even less the change those conferences are shoving through to give themselves 4 autobids regardless. I don’t think the ACC and Big 12 are necessarily doomed to only get one team in each season (and I definitely think the Big 12 will be better next season).
  • The specific order of the CFP First Round matchups is more-or-less a guess, but I would guess if Oregon gets a late game, they will get one of the later slots. The main thing to watch is how the subcontracting with TNT goes, i.e., if ESPN gets to decide what to keep (because in that case, a Notre Dame home game would almost certainly be on ESPN).

That’s about it for now. Next week will be even more robust as more teams clinch eligibility and I only have to project out one game.