Author Archives: ASimPerson

2014 World Cup Update: June 4th

World Cup qualifying starts up again this June. So let’s take a quick look around the world to see what happened in February and what’s at stake over the next few weeks.

AFC
The AFC Fourth Round will conclude this June. Japan will play Australia with a direct World Cup berth on the line, having failed in their attempt to clinch last March by losing 2-1 to Jordan. Provided Japan wins or draws against the Socceroos, they will be the first team other than Brazil to qualify for the World Cup. The other four teams in the group (Australia, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan) are all within two points of each other, so Group B could come down to the bitter end. Currently, Australia has played only five matches (along with Iraq; everyone else in the group has played 6) so they will have 3 games to get their house in order and qualify directly.

Group A leaders Uzbekistan and South Korea will be unable to clinch directly on the 4th, but with wins they will be able to on the 11th most likely.

Overall, I would say my favorites to make it out of Group A are Uzbekistan and South Korea with the winner of the 4th’s Iran-Qatar match coming in third. In Group B, I like Japan and Australia to top the group with Jordan coming in third.

CAF
While as of the next match no one in Africa can clinch advancement to the play-off, the next match could do the trick for most teams. For instance, with two winnable games against Botswana and South Africa, Ethiopia could clinch in June. Tunisia is in a similar position in Group B. In Group C, the Tanzia-Ivory Coast match on the 16th will likely determine the group. Unfortunately in Group D leaders Zambia and Ghana will not meet until September, so we may have to wait unless one of them stumbles in June. Congo has all but clinched Group E, having gone undefeated and unscored upon so far. Group F is far murkier, with no country having more than 1 win, so that may go to the wire. Group G is home to perhaps the best story in international soccer this World Cup cycle, Bob Bradley’s Egypt. They currently lead the group by 5 points and could clinch in June. In Group H, Algeria and Mali are neck-and-neck, as are Cameroon and Libya in Group I. Finally, Group J has no clear leader right now.

So the short version of the Africa story: check back after June 8.

CONCACAF
After the March games, the Hexagonal saw no shortage of controversy. The US currently sits in a three-way tie for 2nd, and is currently third in the group based on goal differential. Mexico is currently 5th, having played 3 punchless (scoreless in two) draws.

Mexico gets back into the action on the 4th due to their appearance in the Confederations Cup later this month. The rest of the confederation is back on the 7th. They play Jamaica, which is likely the worst side in the group. If Mexico can’t find their mojo against the Reggae Boyz, then they will be in real trouble against Panama and Costa Rica in their next two matches.

Even with three games per team this month, it’s unlikely anything will be decided until September.

OFC
Not much news here. New Zealand clinched back in March. All they get for their trouble, however, is a home-and-home matchup against the 4th place team from CONCACAF.

UEFA
The closest anyone is coming to really running away with their group so far is Germany in Group C, where they lead their fellow German-speaking brethren from Austria by 8 points.

Each group in UEFA gets to attempt to set their own qualifying schedule (unless they can’t agree). This leads to some situations like in the aforementioned group C where Germany won’t even play at all on either for the FIFA matchdays in June and is off until September. Here are the what are likely to be some of the more interesting matches from Europe:

  • Group A: group leaders Belgium and Croatia won’t play each other directly, but if they win they can eliminate all the other teams in the group.
  • Group B: Italy is undefeated (4-1-0) but only leads the group by 3 points over Bulgaria, unfortunately, they don’t play each other.
  • Group C: Germany is running away with the group, but three countries are tied for second with 8 points each: Austria, Sweden, and Ireland. Austria and Sweden will play each other on the 7th
  • Group D: The Dutch are currently enjoying a 7 point lead over Hungary. This is also likely to be a group where the battle for second is the most interesting part. Unfortunately, this group will play no matches until September.
  • Group E: No one is running away with the group, but at the same time it is not super-interesting either. None of the top teams will play in June.
  • Group F: Russia, Israel, and Portugal are locked in a tight battle for the two spots at the top of the group. Russia and Portugal will play on the 7th.
  • Group G: Bosnia is currently topping the group, but only by 3 over Greece. Nonetheless, it will be a feat for one of the world’s newest international teams to qualify for the World Cup.
  • Group H: Speaking of newly minted countries and their soccer teams, Montenegro is still leading England in this group by 2, thanks in part to their draw back in March. They’re back in action in June, and will attempt to gain some separation against Ukraine.
  • Group I: In the “Spain, France, and Everyone Else” Group, it, well, pretty much is Spain, France, and everyone else. Unfortunately, neither the world champions or the French will be playing in June, with just Finland and Belarus playing each other home-and-home.

 Perhaps after the 7th I’ll do an update. We’ll see! Until then, enjoy the return of international socer!

2014 World Cup Update: Where We Stand

As 2013 gets underway, I figured it’s high time to take a look around the world and see where everyone stands as competition resumes in North America on Wednesday (and everywhere else in late March). So we’ll start close to home first, and then we’ll take a stroll around the world.

CONCACAF
Starting Wednesday is the final phase of CONCACAF qualification, known in English and Spanish alike as the Hexagonal. The six teams in question are the top-two teams from each 3rd round group. To review, those teams are (in order of their FIFA ranking/ELO ranking): Mexico (15/7), the United States (28/27), Panama (46/37), Jamaica (58/72), Honduras (59/45), and Costa Rica (66/42).

To be blunt, Mexico and the US should qualify. That’s not to say there won’t be drama, however. Last time around, the US lost 3-1 at Costa Rica, for instance. There was also the really annoying tendency to give up early goals. At El Salvador, the US was down 2-0 in the 72nd minute before rallying to for the draw. The US went down 1-0 early at home against Honduras. The one time they did manage to score with in the first ten minutes was at Mexico, when Charlie Davies stunned the Azteca crowd to put the US up 1-0 in the 9th minute. The Mexicans tied 10 minutes later and finally broke through in the 82nd minute to secure the US’s only other loss. In their next four games, other than a 1-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago, the US was losing at some point in the contest. Perhaps none wound up being bigger than the last two games. The US surrendered a goal almost immediately after the half to go down 1-0 at Honduras with qualification on the line. Conor Casey came out of nowhere to become Man of the Match, as he scored in the 50th and 66th minutes to put the US up 2-1, and had an assist on Landon Donovan’s clincher in the 71st minute. The US ended up winning 3-2 after getting lucky with a missed Honduras penalty in extra time.

Perhaps the most dramatic moment ever in CONCACAF qualification occurred four days later in Washington, DC. Mexico and the US were already through to the World Cup. Mexico drew against Trinidad and Tobago earlier in the day, giving the US a shot to top the group with a win. The teams that cared about the results this day the most, however, were Costa Rica and Honduras. Costa Rica had 12 points at the time and Honduras had 10. In order to avoid a tough intercontinental playoff game against a South American team (which ended up being Uruguay, not exactly an easy match) Honduras needed to beat El Salvador and needed the US to draw or win against Costa Rica. The US decided to go for the points and started their full-strength lineup, however the team struggled throughout the match and surrendered two goals in quick succession in the 20th and 23rd minutes. Micheal Bradley finally broke through in the 71st minute, but it looked like the US (and Honduras) would fall short. The 90th minute came and 4 minutes were put on the board. Finally, with the referee liable to blow his whistle at any second, the US were given a corner kick. Robbie Rodgers kicked it, and Jonathan Bornstein instantly became a national hero in Honduras as he headed the ball into the net in what would be noted in the box score as the “90+4” minute. It looked something like this:

I still remember watching the footage from Honduras on Youtube later. First was the audio feed from the Honduran radio guys, who were still on air providing updates as they got them. (The Honduras game had been over for awhile at this point.) In the clip, you hear what sounds like someone shouting from the entrance to the room “Goal Estados Unidos!” followed by “Goal Estados Unidos?” “GOOOOOAAAAAALLL ESTADOS UNIDOS!!!!!! GOOOOOAAAAAALLLLLLLL” Other clips included people celebrating the streets, many with Honduran flags but also several waving American flags. Even though he scored with his forehead, the Honduras football federation asked for Bornstein’s cleats. It was the first time the country had qualified for the World Cup since 1982.

Other than that, things weren’t great in Honduras then (Sports Illustrated international soccer writer Grant Wahl got mugged when covering the US’s away game there in 2009), and they’re a hell of a lot worse now. San Pedro Sula is possibly the least safe city on the planet right now (it currently has the highest per capita murder rate in the world), which probably has a lot to do with the game will start at 3PM local time on Wednesday. Of course, it probably also doesn’t hurt that it will be a very balmy 90 degrees at kickoff, either. In addition to the heat and security situation, the US has the other worries that traditionally come with qualifying in Central America. Hostile fans throwing anything and everything at the players (though the one upside of the Estadio Olimipico in San Pedro Sula is that the stands are relatively far away from the field), an around-the-clock party may be continuously occurring outside the team hotel, rather questionable playing surfaces, and sometimes even more questionable officiating. The US will be trying for three points, but don’t be surprised if in the end we have to settle for one.

In Mexico City, El Tri will be starting off with Jamaica. This shouldn’t present much challenge for the high-flying Mexicans, which makes it even more imperative for the US to get a result at Honduras. Rounding out the first set of games is Panama-Costa Rica. The Ticos just won the Central American Cup and Panama came in fifth. Most sources I’ve read indicate they’re a little weaker side than they were four years ago. They may have some issues on the road in Panama but I think they could still get three points.

CONCACAF is the only confederation playing in February, as the 6th is actually a FIFA friendly date, not what’s known as a “full international date”. The one downside of this is that for full dates, national teams can recall their squads up to a week in advance of the games, whereas it’s only a few days for friendly dates. For the Central American teams this isn’t a huge deal. For Mexico it’s becoming more a big deal, as 5 of their starting 11 are now based on Europe. For the US, though, it wouldn’t be surprising if as many as 8 or 9 of the starting 11 are based in Europe. This means that they flew to Miami Sunday night, and flew on to San Pedro Sula Monday night. That’s pretty rough. Add that into the other elements mentioned above, and fatigue could be a factor. One potential advantage could’ve been that the players will at least be in form, but Honduras were the runners-up in the tournament I mentioned above. For more on the calendar, you can view the FIFA match calendar here.

Let’s take a quick look at the situation abroad, though I’ll probably follow up with another post as we get closer to those dates in late March.

AFC
It probably wouldn’t be a shock, per se, but I’d still be pretty surprised if Uzbekistan topped Group A in Asia ahead of South Korea. The Koreans will get to exact some revenge on them and Iran as they close out with them in June, but the current status quo is likely to prevail as South Korea faces Qatar and Uzbekistan faces last-place Lebanon in March.

Japan has a very good shot at being the first team (other than the hosts) to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. They currently have an 8 point lead over Australia, Iraq, and Oman in their group and need only to beat last-place Jordan to get in. (That, or draw with Jordan and hope the Aussies draw with Oman.) The game is in Amman where the Jordanians did shock Australia 2-1 last September, so it’s not certain. Speaking of the Socceroos, “lackluster” might not be adequate to describe their campaign so far. Their only win has been over Iraq, where they had to come from behind after getting down 1-0 in the 72nd minute. Their best result could very well be a 1-1 draw at home with Japan.

CAF
Not much has changed in Africa, as most national teams have been playing in the Cup of Nations tournament the past few weeks. No World Cup qualifiers have been played since last June, and all teams still have four games to go in their qualification groups right now, so it’s tough to really make any bold statements. The most interesting thing so far might be that Ghana isn’t topping its group, but they still have plenty of time to rectify that.

CONMEBOL
South America has, of course, the most elegant qualifying format: a simple double round-robin between all the teams in the confederation. The top four go to the World Cup, and the fifth place team gets to beat play a team from the AFC. Currently Argentina tops the table with 20 points, three ahead of Ecuador. Colombia has also had a strong showing so far, going 5-1-2 (W-D-L). However, most of the teams still have 6 games to play, so there’s plenty of action left before they wrap up in October.

OFC
With a win on March 22, New Zealand will qualify for the Interconfederation Playoff to be played in November against the 4th place team from CONCACAF. Even though they shockingly lost to New Caledonia last year, the All-Whites should be able to clinch it at home.

UEFA
Most teams still have six games to play, so again, there’s no grand pronouncements to be made so far. We can note some surprises, though, such as Israel sitting in second in Group F ahead of Portugal on goal difference. It stands to reason that may change when the two sides face off in March, though. In Group G, Bosnia is currently tied for the lead in the group with Greece, and both are ahead of 2010 qualifier Slovakia. Exhibit A of why you can’t really tell anything yet is Group H, though. Montenegro are currently topping a group that also has England, Poland, and the Ukraine in it. Don’t get me wrong, they appear to be a quality side, but they’ve also already played hapless minnow San Marino twice. If you dislike potential chaos, though, Group I will make you happy, as Spain and France are currently topping the group.

That’s all for now. Don’t forget to check out the other resources on the sidebar on the right.

Bowl Games 2012: Aftermath

I’ve uploaded the final iteration of the predictions. I went 20-15 this bowl season, which isn’t great but it’s not terrible either. Unfortunately for us all, I was almost entirely wrong about the BCS title game, but those are the breaks I guess.

So that’s that! As usual, what little activity there is here will decrease until next fall, but at this year we also have World Cup qualifying to keep us on our toes. Also, I have an idea of another research article along the same vein as this one. So until then…

Bowl Games 2012: The Last One

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 7
8:30: Notre Dame vs. Alabama (BCS Championship Game @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): Here we are, once again. I have Alabama winning 17-10, and for once, I feel pretty good about that. Why? Well, I’m not sure. Alabama’s offense is actually a little underrated if you ask me – this isn’t a team that scrapes out 10-7 games. The fewest points they’ve scored all year was in Baton Rouge against LSU, where they won 21-17. They’ve had only two other close games all year. The first was, of course, the 29-24 loss to Texas A&M. The second was the 32-28 win against Georgia in the SEC championship. Alabama basically won both those close games in the final minute, scoring the go-ahead touchdown against LSU with 51 seconds to go and not clinching the SEC title game until UGA’s receive fell down in the field of play with less than 10 seconds to go on first and goal. In the TAMU game, Bama got within six yards before throwing an interception on 4th and goal with less than two minutes to go. So, basically, to beat Alabama you need a mobile, Heisman winning quarterback and/or an elite defense.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has no losses of course. However, their offense is lackluster, ranking 75th in the nation in scoring offense. However, when your opponents only score 10.3 points a game, it doesn’t take a lot outscore them. Notre Dame had three close games this season. The first was a 20-17 scare against Purdue on September 8. I’m willing to give that one a pass. The next was the overtime win against Stanford in October, which I think now is, safe to say, Notre Dame’s best win of the year. Stanford also sports a very good defense with a lackluster, workmanlike offense, and the game went into overtime 13-13. From there, the Irish defense, in one of the most controversial calls of the season, stopped Stanford on fourth and goal in the first overtime to seal the win. They had a small scare against BYU the next week, but the winning points were scored with over 12 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Irish’s second best win of the year was sealed the next week in Norman. The game was tied 13-13 with 9:10 to go, and then the Irish scored 17 straight points to stay unbeaten. The biggest scare of the season was, of course, the triple overtime win against Pitt. Notre Dame tied the game with 2:11 to go and held on through the first two overtimes until finally getting the winning touchdown. The USC game was close for a while, but ND never trailed after leading 3-0 less than 5 minutes into the game.
So what does this say? I’m not a SEC homer, but I don’t think it’s much of a reach to say that Alabama played a tougher schedule than Notre Dame did. The only other elite defense ND has really faced so far this year was Stanford’s. I think the Domers can give Alabama trouble with their defense, but the Alabama offense has just been that much better over the course against the season against tougher competition. While Everett Golson does provide some mobility to escape the pass rush, I also don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb to say he’s not Johnny Manziel. If this game really does come down to old-school, smash mouth football, well, that’s really playing right into Nick Saban and Alabama’s hands.
Previous meetings: Considering these are two of college football’s most storied teams, they have only met six times. The first meeting wasn’t actually until 1973 in the Sugar Bowl. Notre Dame won, 24-23. They had two more meetings in the 70’s. On New Year’s Day in 1975, they met again in the Orange Bowl and Notre Dame won again, 13-11. In 1976, they met in the regular season in South Bend, and the Tide lost again, 21-18. Four years later in Birmingham, the Tide still had no luck and lost 7-0. In 1986 and again in Birmingham, the Tide got their first and only win in the series so far, a solid 28-10 victory. Their last meeting was in 1987, when Alabama made the return trip to South Bend and lost in convincing fashion, 37-6. So, oddly, that also means all six previous meetings between these two happened in a span of 12 years. Again, odd.
Last bowl game: This is Alabama’s ninth straight bowl game, dating back to 2004 when they lost in the Music City Bowl to Minnesota, 20-16. As many will recall, they won last year’s BCS Championship Game against LSU, 21-0. This is the Irish’s third straight bowl game. They lost to Florida State in last year’s Champs Sports Bowl, 18-14.
Announcers: Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit
Fun facts: I was going to have the reason why they’re called the “Fighting Irish” here, but it turns out no one really knows for certain but that any of the interesting stories you’ve heard of probably aren’t true. Unfortunately, that’s not a terribly fun fact. Sorry.

Bowl Games 2012: Part 6

A 6-0 sweep on New Year’s Day has got me back up to 17-12. We’re now down to the last 6 games. This covers the next five, with a separate post for the Championship game scheduled for Sunday or Monday.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Wednesday, January 2
8:30: Florida vs. Louisville (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Despite what they did to FSU, I’m not exactly expecting Florida to come out and score a ton of points. That said, I’m expecting Louisville to score even less points. They have a middling offense and there’s nothing to indicate they will be able to get anything going against one of the nation’s best defenses.
Previous meetings: These two have met twice, in 1980 and 1992. Florida won both games, 13-0 and 31-17.
Last bowl game: Florida has the second longest consecutive bowl streak at 22, behind only their rivals in Tallahassee. The Gators’ could be even longer, but they went 9-2 in 1990 and missed a bowl due to NCAA sanctions. So instead we go to the 1991 Sugar Bowl, which they lost to Notre Dame 39-28. Last year, they went to the Gator Bowl and beat Ohio State 24-17. This is Louisville’s third straight bowl game. They lost last year’s Belk Bowl to NC State, 31-24.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman

Thursday, January 3
8:30: Kansas State vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): The Fiesta is once again the “oh so close bowl”, as I’m sure we all remember at this point that these two were once fated to meet in Miami. I expect there to be a lot of points in this one, a ton, in fact. Other than the beat downs administered to some of the Big 12’s more suspect defenses, K-State is not necessary a high-flying offense, but they have at least shown flashes of being able to keep up with Chip Kelly’s “5-year-old on a sugar high” offense. That said, I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough to keep up, especially as the game wears on and defensive stops come fewer and further between for the Wildcats.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is K-State’s third straight bowl game. They lost to Arkansas in last year’s Cotton Bowl, 29-16. This is Oregon’s eight straight bowl game. They won last year’s Rose Bowl over Wiscinson, 45-38.
Announcers: Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge

Friday, January 4
8:00: Oklahoma vs. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): This is a close one. Oklahoma is easily the best two loss team in the country, with their losses to Notre Dame and Kansas State. Texas A&M, though, was the only team on the season to beat Alabama, pulling off what has to be one of the more stunning upsets in the history of college football. Thinking on it some more, I would say I probably expect something larger than my 28-24 TAMU prediction indicates, in terms of the points for both teams. I think this one could go pretty much either way, but for the sake of having to pick someone I went with TAMU.
Previous meetings: Not as many as you would think. Remember, only after the collapse of the old Southwest Conference were these two both in the same conference, and of course, now they’re not once again. They’ve met 30 times, though, and Oklahoma leads the all-time series 19-11. The first was in 1903, a 6-0 Sooner win. The two met sporadically from then until 1951. After that, they didn’t actually play again until the Big 8 became the Big 12. TAMU dominated the early year there, but since 1999, Oklahoma is 11-2, including their last game as members of the Big 12 in 20011, which they won 41-25.
Last bowl game: This is Oklahoma’s 14th straight bowl game, starting with the 1999 Independence Bowl (which they lost to Mississippi 27-25). They did beat Iowa in last year’s Insight Bowl, 31-14. This is TAMU’s fourth straight bowl game. They beat Northwestern in last year’s Car Care Bowl (of Texas), 33-22.
Announcers: Gus Johnson, Charles Davis

Saturday, January 5
1:00: Mississippi vs. Pittsburgh (BBVA Compass Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): These teams are so thoroughly 6-6 that it’s hard to say that they do anything particularly well or that they do anything particularly badly. I’m predicting a relatively boring low-scoring game. This is actually one of the few occasions where I’m wondering why I picked a team, though. Pitt is making yet another trip to Birmingham and let me tell you, “the Magic City” isn’t all that magical. (Yes, that really is Birmingham’s tagline.) Also Ole Miss is riding a high into this game, with their out-of-nowhere upset of their chief rival in Mississippi State. So, well, I’ll stick to my guns and the narrow Pitt win, but as per usual it’s rather likely I’ll be wrong.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Mississippi’s first bowl game since 2009-10, when they beat Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl, 21-7. This is Pitt’s fifth straight bowl game and somehow their third straight trip to this bowl. They lost 28-6 to SMU in last year’s edition.
Announcers: Eamon McAnaney, David Diaz-Infante

Sunday, January 6
9:00: Arkansas State vs. Kent State (godaddy.com Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Kent State is one of the country’s top rushing teams and likes to score points. Arkansas State, well, they also like to score points. Let me put it this way: compared to what will probably happen on Monday, this should be your last chance to see some real offensive ingenuity. There’s no losing head coach advantage here, as both teams will be without their former head honchos. That said, I still give the MAC an edge over the Sun Belt, and so as long as they’re not too bummed out about not having a chance to get pummeled by FSU instead of NIU, I like the Golden Flashses here. (Again, not sure why the predictions page has such a low scoring prediction. My only excuse was that I did all those at the last minute and was very tired.)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Arkansas State’s second straight trip to this game. They lost to Northern Illinois in last year’s edition 38-20. And now the moment we’ve all been waiting for. This is Kent State’s first bowl game since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl. They lost to the University of Tampa, 21-18. (Note: Tampa stopped playing football after 1974 and is now a Division II school.) Also worth noting that was also Kent State’s first ever bowl game.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Brock Huard
Fun facts: Once again, if you’re in the market for domain related services, I would encourage you to use a provider that cares about you, your rights, and not producing awful TV commercials. Both my previous registrar, Namecheap, and my first and current registrar, Gandi, satisfy these criteria.