They’re updated right here.
Let’s hit the highlights.
- First, yeah, there’s still 5 SEC teams. Unfortunately, the relatively chalky rivalry weekend didn’t shake things up too much. The one upset that did happen, Texas over Texas A&M, likely cost the Aggies a first round bye, as their ticket to a bye with their schedule was to suffer their only loss in the SEC Championship Game.
- Speaking of the SEC Championship Game, the SEC team now likely on the shakiest ground is Alabama. I personally believe that a loss to Georgia (a team they beat in the regular season) probably won’t get them knocked out… unless BYU upsets Texas Tech, which would get a second Big 12 team into the field. And if Bama beats Georgia again? Well, that sounds like a problem for next weekend.
- Oh, yeah, the ACC thing. I… honestly have no idea what will happen if Duke upsets Virginia Saturday. The main that needs to happen immediately is for the ACC and other conferences to fix their tiebreakers to prevent a 5-loss team from getting into the conference title game. The next thing is that the conferences are simply too large. One of the main issues with the tiebreakers as-is is the lack of connectivity between many teams. The ACC is the most obvious case this season, but the SEC, American, and Mountain West also had issues. The SEC actually got to the same tiebreaker as the ACC, it’s just less egregious (because they’re picking between 1-loss teams), but there’s definitely an argument to be made that Alabama probably shouldn’t be there.
- Speaking of the Tide, remember when they lost to Florida State? Y’all, we play a 12 game season, and all the games have to count. I’m not sure this will actually come up, but it probably should, especially if Georgia thoroughly handles the Tide in Atlanta.
- Speaking of SEC teams that lost games to bad Florida teams, Texas is not making the playoff. They are behind, in no particular order: 3-loss Bama, 2-loss BYU, Miami, and Vanderbilt. It’s not happening.
- Outside of the playoff, we have enough teams! Well, sort of: we’re technically two short, but fortunately both of the FCS to FBS transition teams in Conference USA (Missouri State and Delaware) are 6-6 or better.
From this point forward, the predictions page is a bit of a living document: I won’t necessarily create a new post when it updates, but I will update if I hear any particular news about bowl destinations. Some wild cards include: there not being enough SEC teams, which American teams that just lost their coaches will still get called up to better bowls, where the service academies (which still play another game next week) will go, and where UConn will go. In addition, I have two extra “Pac-12” in Cal and Washington State, and I’m not entirely sure what will happen to them. Again, the page will update if I find anything out.