The bowl predictions page has been updated.

Once again, we’re six teams short, so I had to use both the transitioning schools (Delaware and Missouri State) and four 5-7 teams (in order: Northwestern, Auburn, Rice, and Central Florida). Once again, since I predict the games out using SP+, there is a potential that any team I have projected to finish 5-7 finds one more upset and qualifies normally. For example, Mississippi State is projected to lose out to Missouri and Mississippi, but they’re about a 10 point underdog to Mizzou, which is well within the realm of possibility. (And the Egg Bowl is, of course, the Egg Bowl.)

We’ll get more clarity when the newest CFP rankings are released tomorrow. The main question is if they will put in a three loss Alabama: I have the Tide losing to Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. At some point, that loss to Florida State has to come home to roost, right? For now I have Utah as the last at-large bid to the playoff.

The other point of contention is going to be the status of the ACC champion. As the joke goes, when the ACC killed divisions (and therefore the notoriously volatile Coastal division), they just made everything Coastal. If everything goes to my projections, the Virginia will finish with one conference loss and Louisville would win the tiebreakers between the two-loss ACC teams (which in addition to the Cards I have as Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist, and Duke). This prevent the nightmare scenario of a 7-5 Duke making it to, and winning, the ACC Championship Game, in which case the ACC would probably miss the playoff entirely.