The bowl page has been updated, and my good start to bowl season has hit the skids a little bit. Hopefully our last big tranche of games will keep me above the 50% mark.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Tuesday, December 31st
Noon: Michigan vs. Alabama (ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): This is a “IV” because of the helmets involved, but let’s face it: no one really asked for this rematch, and the game commentary will likely feature an early Bama lead and extended discussion of why they should’ve been in the playoff. If that’s the case, I’ll be directing my attention elsewhere.
SP+ line: Bama by 16.8
Vegas line: Bama by 12.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: They didn’t meet for the first time until 1988, a 28-24 Michigan win in the Hall of Fame Bowl. The two sides have never played in the other’s home stadium: the long regular season meeting was a 2012 Jerryworld special that Bama won 41-14. They played a game of some note last season, when they met for the playoff in the Rose Bowl. Michigan won 27-20 in an instant classic. The series is now tied at 3 all.
Last bowl game: This is Michigan’s fourth straight postseason appearance, and first one that’s not in the playoff. In 2021 they lost to Georgia 34-11 in the Orange Bowl. Last season, these teams faced off in the Rose Bowl, as previously noted. The Wolverines then beat Washington 34-13 in last season’s title game. The Tide, for their part, have the third longest streak in the country, at 24. Back in the 1999 Independence Bowl, they beat Iowa State 14-13.
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, and Stormy Buonantony
2:00: Louisville vs. Washington (Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX; CBS): Speaking of last year’s playoff teams, the Huskies didn’t have a fantastic season by any measure, but they still had a decent year in their new league. Louisville remains one the ACC’s more baffling squads, and may also be the conference’s best hope for improving a so-far dismal bowl season. I like them here.
SP+ line: L’ville by 12.9
Vegas line: L’ville by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: For the Cardinals, this is their fourth straight bowl game, dating to a 31-28 loss to Air Force in the 2021 First Responder Bowl. Last season they lost 42-28 to USC in the Holiday Bowl. For the Huskies, this is their third straight postseason. In 2022 they beat Texas 27-20 in the Alamo Bowl. Last season, they re-matched with the Horns and got the best of them again, 37-31, in the Sugar Bowl. It turned out that the Sugar bowl, while entertaining as hell, took a lot out of the Huskies, as they then lost the title game 34-13 to Michigan.
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
3:00: Illinois vs. South Carolina (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): Illinois runs into something of a buzzsaw, as one of the SEC’s hottest teams down the stretch comes in with plenty of talent and an attitude to match. I like the Gamecocks here.
SP+ line: USC by 10.3
Vegas line: Illinois by 9.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Illinois’s last bowl game was a 19-10 loss to Mississippi State in the 2022-23 Reliaquest Bowl. The Gamecocks last appeared in the postseason in a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the 2022 Gator Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Roddy Jones, and Quint Kessenich
3:30: Baylor vs. Louisiana State (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): These teams had relatively anonymous seasons that fell relatively short of expectations. So for the purposes of this game, that means it could go one of two ways: an absolute cracker of a matchup featuring plenty of offense and players trying to build momentum to next year, or a 4-hour slog to the finish line. I suspect the former probably favors LSU, and the latter Baylor. I like the Bayou Bengals here.
SP+ line: LSU by 6.1
Vegas line: Baylor by 1.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: They’ve met 11 times. The first established a theme that’s held for most of their history, when LSU won 48-0. in 1908, LSU won 89-0. Baylor had to wait until 1960 to score points, when they won 7-3. Their last meeting was in the 1985 Liberty Bowl, a 21-7 Baylor win. LSU leads the overall series 8-3.
Last bowl game: Baylor’s last bowl game was a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl. LSU would be on a 25 game streak, but did not play in a bowl in 2020, so instead they’re on four in a row, dating to the 2021-22 Texas Bowl, a 42-20 loss to Kansas State. Last season they beat Wisconsin 35-31 in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Sam Acho, and Taylor Davis
7:30: Boise State (#3) vs. Pennsylvania State (#6) (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): The first quarterfinal could be the second most-intriguing game of the four. Penn State easily shrugged off prophecy and beat SMU in the first round, but this Boise team has earned their stripes. Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty is the real deal (just ask Oregon). I highly suspect the biggest problem for the Broncos is going to be Penn State offense, where it looks like Drew Allar and Co have figured things out. I am picking Penn State here, but I really do like the Broncos to keep it close. And after all, they’ve pulled out miracles here before.
SP+ line: Penn St by 11
Vegas line: Penn St by 10.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Boise should be on a 26 game postseason streak, but they did not play a bowl game in 2020 and their 2021 Arizona Bowl was canceled. In 2022 they beat North Texas 35-32 in the Frisco Bowl, and lost 35-22 to UCLA in the LA Bowl last season. Penn State defeated SMU in the first round of the playoff.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, and Kris Budden
Wednesday, January 1
1:00: Arizona State (#4) vs. Texas (#5) (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Sun Devils, you’ve been considered. It was a fun season, and your route to winning the Big 12 was an enthralling mess. Literally no one predicted you’d be here, because you were predicted to finish last in the Big 12. But… yeah, I don’t see any way Texas doesn’t take care of business here.
SP+ line: Texas by 16
Vegas line: Texas by 12.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just one: in the 2007 Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns won 52-34.
Last bowl game: The Sun Devils last appeared in the post season in a 20-13 loss to Wisconsin in the 2021 Las Vegas Bowl. The Longhorns defeated Clemson in the first round of the playoff
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George
5:00: Oregon (#1) vs. Ohio State (#8) (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): And here’s our first rematch of the playoff. On October 12th, Will Howard got the ball back with 1:47 to go and the Buckeyes down 1. The game ended with Howard running as time expired. This clock mismanagement figured to be the only blemish on the Buckeye’s season until that thing happened in the The Game a month ago. Now, every indication is that these teams should play a cracker of a traditional looking Rose Bowl. It’s a little bit unfortunate, as I think overall these are the two best teams in the playoff, but again that really comes down to Ohio State blowing the Michigan game and as a result being seeded lower than they would’ve been otherwise (and denied a chance to face the Ducks in Indianapolis). Ultimately, though, I think that’s the edge here. Dan Lanning and his Ducks have gotten it done even when they haven’t looked their best. Ohio State has only two mistakes, but they’re mistakes that loom large in this contest. I think another narrow Oregon win is the likely scenario here.
SP+ line: Ohio St by 1.4
Vegas line: Ohio St by 2.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This will be the twelveth all-time meeting between these teams. The first was the 1957-58 Rose Bowl, a 10-7 Buckeye win. The Buckeyes then won six straight regular season contests until the sides met in the 2009-10 Rose Bowl. Five seasons later, Ohio State beat Oregon 42-20 in the inaugural College Football Playoff title game. The Ducks finally got on the board in a 2021 early season clash, a 35-28 win in Columbus. And, of course, now as B1G foes, Oregon defeated Ohio State 32-31 back in October. The Buckeyes hold the overall series lead 9-2.
Last bowl game: Oregon’s eight game postseason run dates to the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, a 38-28 loss to Boise State. Last season they disposed of Liberty 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl. Ohio State defeated Tennessee in the first round of the playoff.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Holly Rowe
8:45: Georgia (#2) vs. Notre Dame (#7) (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I like the Irish here, and not just because I hate Georgia. For starters, while Backup QB Theory is a thing, there has got to be a reason Carson Beck was Georgia’s starter, and he’s out after having elbow surgery. Notre Dame has also been a team on a mission since the perhaps the most inexplicable loss of the season, their Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Their first round game against Indiana proved the point: a suffocating defense, and a mature, robust offense that can score on anyone. And Georgia, in contrast to years past, has been scored on this year. While they’re still a very dangerous team, I think overall they can get got, and the Irish have the tools to pull it off.
SP+ line: Georgia by 0.5
Vegas line: Georgia by 1.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This will be just the fourth all-time meeting between these teams. The first was 17-10 Georgia win in the 1980-81 Sugar Bowl. The teams played a home-and-away regular season series in 2017 and 2019, with Georgia winning close both times.”
Last bowl game: “Georgia owns the longest active postseason streak at 28, starting from a 33-6 win over Wisconsin in the 1997-98 Outback Bowl. Last season they demolished a completely depleted and demoralized Florida State team 63-3 in the Orange Bowl. (From the looks of it, it appears FSU didn’t quite recover this year.) Notre Dame defeated Indiana in the first round of the playoff.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, and Molly McGrath
Thursday, January 2
7:30: Duke vs. Mississippi (Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN): There’s two ways this game can go. Lane Kiffin and company show up focused and ready to take care of business against a team they should completely blow away on paper, or they’ll do the opposite thing. I’m betting ont he latter.
SP+ line: Mississippi by 18.9
Vegas line: Mississippi by 14.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Blue Devils are appearing in their third straight postseason. In 2022 they beat UCF 30-13 in the Military Bowl, and last season they beat Troy 17-10 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, and Taylor McGregor
Friday, January 3
4:00: North Texas vs. Texas State (First Responder Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): Neither team will need to travel far for this one, though Denton is a tad closer than San Marcos. Regardless, I don’t have a lot fun facts for you on this one. I’m picking the Bobcats.
SP+ line: TxSt by 10.5
Vegas line: TxSt by 13.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams (as major programs).
Last bowl game: The Mean Green’s last postseason appearance was a 35-32 loss to Boise State in the 2022 Frisco Bowl. The Bobcats are making their second bowl game ever, after making their first in last season’s 45-21 victory over Rice in the First Responder Bowl.
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, and Cole Cubelic
7:30: Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota (Mayo Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): Once again, the main reason to tune in here is to see which coach will get mayonnaise dunked on them. And they are both, admittedly, hilarious options. I like Brent Pry as a slight favorite to get the dunk, but the general consensus out there definitely favors P.J. Fleck.
SP+ line: VPI by 2.8
Vegas line: Gophers by 7.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Virginia Tech has now made two in a row after having a long streak snapped in 2020 (and for real in 2022). Last season they beat Tulane 41-20 in the Military Bowl. For the Gophers, this is their fourth bowl in a row, dating to the 2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl, an 18-6 win over West Virginia. Last season they beat Bowling Green 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.
Announcers: Matt Barrie, Dan Mullen, and Harry Lyles Jr.
Saturday, January 4
11:00: Buffalo vs. Liberty (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): This game will start at 8am on the west coast, so the odds that I watch much of this are low. But it will be one of the four last FBS games of the season, so there’s that? I unfortunately also am picking Liberty here, but Buffalo could really do me (and everyone else) a favor here.
SP+ line: Liberty by 9
Vegas line: Bulls by 1.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: They’ve met twice, and fairly recently. The first was a 35-17 Liberty win in 2019, and Liberty won 55-27 last season.
Last bowl game: The Bulls’s last bowl game was a 23-21 win over Georgia Southern in the 2022 Camellia Bowl. This will be Liberty’s sixth bowl game in a row, dating back to a 23-16 win over Georgia Southern in the 2019 Cure Bowl. Last season the Libs were owned 45-6 by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.
Announcers: Matt Schumacker and Dustin Fox