Yearly Archives: 2012

If I Were on the Selection Committee

Editor’s note: So I had this big long post in process when I realized that I was handily beaten to the punch by several people with a better idea of they’re talking about. So I’ll link to one such example here: http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2012/6/21/3105594/college-football-playoffs-selection-committee and then just post what I originally wrote below.

So everyone and their brother by now knows that college football will, in two years, begin using a 4-team, seeded playoff with teams and seeds chosen by a selection committee. The committee will prioritize won-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head records, and whether a team is a conference champion.

We don’t currently know who is going to be on the committee. But if they asked me, I would’ve picked the following teams.

2011
Let’s start with this past year. LSU, Oklahoma State, and Oregon are all locks to be in. But we’re already at our first conundrum. Using last year’s BCS standings as a guide, we have to go all the way to the 10th place team, Wisconsin, to get another conference champion. Within the top 5, we even have three teams that already lost to other teams in the top 5 (Alabama, Oregon, and Stanford). Likely overwhelming conventional wisdom would favor Alabama once again. I would tweak the matchups slightly to avoid rematches, so LSU would face Oklahoma State and Alabama would play Oregon in the first round.
On the outside looking in: also known as “if they had more than four teams, who would be next?” Really, I sort of feel this field is weak as is, since LSU already beat two of the other teams in the playoff. I would probably extend Wisconsin an invite as Big Ten champion. Outside of that, it’s hard to say without including other teams that lost to teams that are already in, like Stanford and Arkansas. Does Boise sneak in? If they hadn’t lost to TCU, they would’ve been right on the bubble, but as-is it’s hard to even say they’re in the next four due to their schedule.

2010
In 2010, Auburn and Oregon are obvious choices. TCU’s undefeated romp is also rewarded, however. Again, who’s the fourth? The Big Ten had a 3-way tie between Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Wisconsin rose highest in the rankings, likely due to them having the foresight to lose before the other two teams. But with only four teams, that’s the system we have, and so the Badgers get the coveted fourth spot.
On the outside looking in: Where to start? Stanford was pretty good that year and 5th in the polls, so they would likely be strong candidates. Then there’s the other two teams in the Big Ten tie – if you include one, then at that point you pretty much have to include the other.

2009
There were five undefeated teams in 2009: Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. With won-loss records the #1 priority for the committee, surely the couldn’t leave an undefeated out in this scenario, could they? Even though they lack a signature victory, the Bearcats’s strength of schedule is probably slightly better than TCU’s or Boise’s, so they get in. From there, Boise’s signature win against Oregon pays-off in terms of four-seed.
On the outside looking in: Boise, for starters. Florida then as the only major conference 1-loss team. Then there’s a succession of 2-loss major conference champions: Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech. The last of which makes me even more retroactively depressed about those losses to Miami and UGA. Oh, well, and the fact that I guess in retrospect none of it would’ve matter anyway due to having to vacate our ACC title. Whoops.

2008
The apocalypse, basically. Utah and Boise State were the only undefeated teams, parked all the way at #6 and #9 in the BCS standings. There were 8 other teams in the top 10 with 1-loss records, including that wacky 3-way tie in the Big 12 South between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. At this point, I’m nearly tempted to just say “screw it” and take the top four conference champions: Oklahoma, Florida, USC, and Utah.
On the outside looking in: Screw 8 teams, we probably would’ve needed 16 to settle all the arguments 2008 would’ve generated. Texas and Alabama are almost certainly in, as well as Penn State. Do we eschew/screw over Texas Tech, or go with Boise State at this point?

2007
Remember Bizarro Year? You know, the year that started with Michigan playing a DI-AA team for the first time ever and then losing? The top 10 is a bloodbath, with only two major conference 1-loss teams (Ohio State and Kansas – yes, Kansas, like I said, it was Bizarro Year). That said, we have 4 major conference champions right at the top, so we’ll go with Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma.
On the outside looking in: Remember Hawaii? Yeah, they were undefeated in 2007. There are bunch of other major conference teams with two losses (and, yes, Kansas) but frankly I don’t feel like any of them had any really strong arguments for inclusion this year over the top 4.

A Look at the 50 Largest Cities in the US

One thing I’ve always found interesting is the representation of various geographical areas in the major professional sports in the US. For this discussion, I’ll include not only the Big Four (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL), but also the MLS as it has gained a major foothold in the Pacific Northwest (minor league teams, generally, don’t average 30,000 fans to their home games).

For instance, the oldest American sports leagues, MLB and the NFL, are to this day still tied mostly to the Northeast and Midwest. For instance, in today’s NFL the chance of a bunch of guys getting together and locating a team in a city the of Green Bay, Wisconsin is basically zero. But with a limited home game schedule, the NFL can get away with using football as a regional draw (which also explains why college football is huge in the Southeast, which did not see major professional sports until the Braves moved to Atlanta in 1966).

Below is a table of the 49 largest “population centers” in the US. I basically made that term up, but it rolls off the tongue better than “Primary Combined Statistical Area”, which is what the Census calls them. I specifically went with that metric because it will combine what are considered separate Metropolitan Statistical Areas in close geographical proximity. To use an example: the San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland Combined Statistical Area is actually two separate MSAs: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara. While local residents would quickly call the latter the “South Bay”, the whole region is intertwined and known as the “Bay Area”, especially for sports. This table from Wikipedia is my source, and their source are the 2011 Census Estimates.

PCSA Population (2011) NFL MLB NBA NHL MLS
New York-Newark-Bridgeport 22,214,083 New York Giants (East Rutherford, NJ)
New York Jets (East Rutherford, NJ)		 New York Yankees
New York Mets		 Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks		 New Jersey Devils (Newark)
New York Islanders (Uniondale, NY)
New York Rangers		 New York Red Bulls (Harrison, NJ)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside 18,081,569 None Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim		 Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers		 Anaheim Ducks
Los Angeles Kings		 Chivas USA (Carson, CA)
Los Angeles Galaxy (Carson, CA)
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City 9,729,825 Chicago Bears Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox		 Chicago Bulls Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Fire (Bridgeview, IL)
Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia 8,718,083 Baltimore Ravens
Washington Redskins		 Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals		 Washington Wizards Washington Capitals D.C. United
Boston-Worcester-Manchester 7,601,061 New England Patriots (Foxborough, MA) Boston Red Sox Boston Celtics Boston Bruins New England Revolution (Foxborough, MA)
San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland 7,563,460 Oakland Raiders
San Francisco 49ers		 Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants		 Golden State Warriors (Oakland, CA) San Jose Sharks San Jose Earthquakes
Dallas-Fort Worth 6,887,383 Dallas Cowboys Texas Rangers (Arlington, TX) Dallas Mavericks Dallas Stars FC Dallas
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland 6,562,287 Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Union (Chester, PA)
Houston-Baytown-Huntsville 6,191,434 Houston Texans Houston Astros Houston Rockets None Houston Dynamo
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville 5,712,148 Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Braves Atlanta Hawks None None
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach 5,670,125 Miami Dolphins Miami Marlins Miami Heat Florida Panthers (Sunrise, FL) None
Detroit-Warren-Flint 5,207,434 Detroit Lions Detroit Tigers Detroit Pistons Detroit Red Wings None
Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia 4,269,349 Seattle Seahawks Seattle Mariners None None Seattle Sounders
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale 4,263,236 Arizona Cardinals (Glendale, AZ) Arizona Diamondbacks (Phoenix, AZ) Phoenix Suns Phoenix Coyotes (Glendale, AZ) None
Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud 3,655,558 Minnesota Vikings (Minneapolis, MN) Minnesota Twins (Minneapolis, MN) Minnesota Timberwolves (Minneapolis, MN) Minnesota Wild (St. Paul, MN) None
Denver-Aurora-Boulder 3,157,520 Denver Broncos Colorado Rockies (Denver, CO) Denver Nuggets Colorado Avalanche (Denver, CO) Colorado Rapids (Commerce City, CO)
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 3,140,069 San Diego Chargers San Diego Padres None None None
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington 2,882,932 St. Louis Rams St. Louis Cardinals None St. Louis Blues None
Cleveland-Akron-Elyria 2,871,084 Cleveland Browns Cleveland Indians Cleveland Cavaliers None None
Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach 2,861,296 None None Orlando Magic None None
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 2,824,724 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Rays (St. Petersburg, FL) None Tampa Bay Lightning None
Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Yuba City 2,489,230 None None Sacramento Kings None None
Pittsburgh-New Castle 2,450,281 Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Pirates None Pittsburgh Penguins None
Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury 2,442,564 Carolina Panthers (Charlotte, NC) None Charlotte Bobcats None None
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro 2,262,605 None None Portland Trail Blazers None Portland Timbers
San Antonio-New Braunfels 2,194,927 None None San Antonio Spurs None None
Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilimington 2,179,965 Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Reds None None Columbus Crew
Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City 2,122,908 Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Royals None None Sporting Kansas City
Indianapolis-Anderson-Columbus 2,103,574 Indianapolis Colts None Indiana Pacers (Indianapolis, IN) None None
Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe 2,093,185 None None None Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Crew
Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump 2,013,326 None None None None None
Austin-Round Rock-Marble Falls 1,826,636 None None None None None
Religh-Durham-Cary 1,795,750 None None None Carolina Hurricanes (Raleigh, NC) None
Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield 1,776,528 None None Utah Jazz (Salt Lake City, UT) None Real Salt Lake
Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha 1,757,604 None Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Bucks None None
Nashville-Davdison-Murfeesboro-Columbia 1,698,651 Tennessee Titans (Nashville, TN) None None Nashville Predators None
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News 1,679,894 None None None None None
Grenesboro-Winston-Salem-High Point 1,602,693 None None None None None
Louisville/Jefferson County-Elizabethtown-Scottsburg 1,440,607 None None None None None
Jacksonville 1,360,251 Jacksonville Jaguars None None None None
Oklahoma City-Shawnee 1,348,333 None None Oklahoma City Thunder None None
Hartford-West Hartford-Willimantic 1,331,406 None None None None None
Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland 1,328,440 None None None None None
Memphis 1,328,440 None None Memphis Grizzlies None None
Greenville-Spartanburgh-Anderson 1,281,394 None None None None None
Richmond 1,269,380 None None None None None
New Orleans-Metaire-Bogalusa 1,238,228 New Orleans Saints None New Orleans Hornets None None
Buffalo-Niagara-Cattaraugus 1,213,871 Buffalo Bills None None Buffalo Sabres None
Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman 1,212,800 None None None None None

Apologies to Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, which was the only area on the list that I felt like could have been separated. As it is, we can gather some interesting observations:

  • As everyone knows, Los Angeles does not have a NFL team.
  • Orlando is the largest market without a baseball team. Though it’s worth noting the only league represented there is the NBA.
  • Green Bay, as the 138th largest such area, is the only American city represented in any of the major sports leagues that isn’t on this list. 
  • The largest city on the list with no major professional sports teams is Las Vegas. This isn’t surprising, given that the leagues seem eager to avoid any potential stigma they could have thrown at them by being associated with Vegas. 
  • I don’t really know why Nashville and Raleigh have hockey teams.
  • Note that the numbers for Buffalo don’t include any population over the border in Canada.
  • New Orleans, the other small multi-sport city on this list, used to be slightly larger, at 1,360,346 in 2000 (the city proper took an even larger hit, with its populating decreasing 29.1% percent between 2000 and 2010). 
  • The NFL’s expansion in the South definitely seemed to capitalize on the idea of making it a more regional sport, considering Nashville and Jacksonville’s locations on this list. I’d say that’s currently working slightly better in the former than the latter.
  • Where would you threaten to move to today if you were a baseball owner trying to extort a new stadium from your fans? Other places were named in the past, but Washington, D.C. had to have always been the most serious candidate. Orlando is not a target, and it’s too close to Tampa anyway. Portland used to be thrown around in the past, but it never made sense to me. What would make sense to me is to put a team in the Jersey part of the New York area, but the chances of that happening are basically zero.
  • The fact that there are no professional basketball teams in Missouri strikes me as a bit odd, especially considering some of the places there are NBA teams.
  • Then again, perhaps some of the “odd” NBA and NHL locations are attempts to capitalize on being the only game in town when it comes to major sports.
  • There are currently no MLS teams south of D.C. or east of Houston, though I believe they’re thinking about a team in Miami or Atlanta.
  • Virginia is the largest state without any major professional sports teams. (In fairness, the most populated region of the state is the metropolitan Washington, D.C. area.)

2014 World Cup Update: Some Stats and Other Updates

First, some quick statistics about the qualification process so far:

  • FIFA has 208 “member assocations”, roughly corresponding to national teams
  • Of these, four did not enter: Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, and Mauritania
  • A further two have withdrawn since the start of the competition: Mauritius and the Bahamas
  • And, of course, only one team so far has qualified for the World Cup Final: Brazil
  • 65 teams have been outright eliminated, which leaves 137 teams competing for a shot at the World Cup title in 2014
  • 43 of those teams were eliminated on November 11, 2011, which makes it the deadliest day of qualification so far

On Wikipedia, you’ll find a map that looks something like this:

Where teams in light blue are still in the hunt and teams in orange and red have been eliminated (orange means they still have games to play). But where else will you find a table like this? Yes, that’s right folks, I’ve listed each of FIFA’s 208 members (as of the start of qualifying) and their status.

So what’s going on in the world right now? Well not much. Most confederations won’t have more games until June, but there is some action going on February 29 in Asia. Let’s take a look at the situation.

AFC Group B
Three teams are still in the hunt for Group B’s top two spots. South Korea and Lebanon are tied at the top of the group with 10 points each, while Kuwait has 8. Most of the scenarios hinge on this: if Kuwait upsets South Korea (in Seoul, at that), then they will advance. It’s not a given that the Koreans will win, of course, as Kuwait held them to a draw back in September. If both South Korea and Lebanon do no worse than get a draw, then they both advance. South Korea currently has a +8 goal differential, so most of the crazy scenarios favor them. It likely won’t matter, as Lebanon plays the winless and drawless United Arab Emirates.

AFC Group D
Australia has already topped the group, but Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Thailand are all fighting for second place. The latter three have 6, 5, and 4 points, respectively. Since the Saudis are in the lead, they clinch with a win over the Socceroos, but the Aussies already beat them 3-1 in Saudi Arabia. Oman and Thailand play each other, and both ave a shot at advancing as long as they do not draw (due to goal differentials, Saudia Arabia will almost certainly clinch if these two draw) and Suadi Arabia loses or draws.

AFC Group E
Though Bahrain technically has not been eliminated yet, they need a miracle Indonesia. First, they need Qatar to lose to Iran (which is plenty possible, as Iran has clinched the group). Second, though, they need to win their match and make up their goal differential deficit (basically, they need some combination of 10 goals in their favor in both games). While improbable, it’s not that far-fetched: Iran currently has a +12 differential and Indonesia is at -13. So, they’ve got a chance.

After that, there won’t be any more World Cup action until June. In the meantime, the massive images I made for the AFC and CONCACAF have been updated. Someday I may even have a version of my massive qualification picture that I’m happen with. So stay tuned!

Bowl Games 2011: Epilogue

Wherein this post has had more advance planning than LSU’s offense apparently did last night.

The final tally is up over in the usual place. This year I managed to predict 24 games correctly. I honestly didn’t think I was doing that well until I looked back over the index. I’ve been doing this since the 1999 season, and this is the best I’ve ever done by a pretty decent margin. With 24 games correct and 11 wrong, I had a winning percentage of 68.57%. The last time I broke 60% was in 2006, and before this year my previous best percentage was in 2004, with 64.29%.

So, yeah, go me! Too bad I didn’t allocate my confidence points correctly on ESPN, but alas.

As we prepare to enter what will for sure be another turbulent offseason, I have to say this has been one of the strangest seasons I can remember. Unfortunately, this isn’t due to anything that happened on the field (2007 still holds that title), but more because it felt like each scandal that broke this year was trying to top the next. First Ohio State surprised us, then Miami shocked us (well, that was more the extent; I doubt anyone was surprised that there was a scandal at Miami), but then Penn State did both and then some.

As per usual, this site will be more dormant over the next eight months, with occasional posts on soccer and baseball. But at some point the dust from various lawsuits will settle and everyone’s out-of-conference schedules will be known. Then I will rank them and tell you about them, and then try to get a post up once a week detailing that weekend’s games.

So, until then.

Quick addendum: apparently this is my 400th post on this website. Thanks for reading!

Bowl Games 2011: The Last One

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9
9:00: Louisiana State vs. Alabama (BCS Championship Game @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Let’s get this out of the way: this isn’t going to be 9-6 again. I didn’t say it was going to be high scoring, mind you, just that someone is probably going to score a touchdown this time around. (Not necessarily an offensive touchdown, though.) Both of these teams are really, really good. But I can’t really pick Alabama. For starters, LSU already been them in Tuscaloosa. Secondly, that game came down to special teams, and I think we’ll see a repeat of that here, and that really is the Crimson Tide’s Achilles’ Heel.
Previous meetings: Depending on the site you look at, Alabama either leads the series 45-24-5 or 45-23-5, depending the status of either team in 1895. And of course, neither counts the game they already played this year, so really it’s either 45-25-5 or 45-24-5. Anyway, both teams have been playing each other for a long time, though before the standardization of conference scheduling they tended to play off-and-on in blocks, meaning they have only been meeting consecutively since 1964. Alabama was the dominate team in the series before 2000, though, going 42-15-5. LSU is 9-3 since then, though, reflecting the reversal in fortunate for both teams over the past 11 years, including 5 straight LSU wins during the Bama Dark Ages of 2003-2007 (also conveniently bookending seasons in which LSU won national titles). Nick Saban went 4-1 against Alabama during his tenure at LSU, with the only loss coming in 2002.
Last bowl game: LSU is in their 12th straight bowl game. The first game in the streak was a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in the 2000 Peach Bowl. Last season, they beat Texas A&M 41-24 in the Cotton Bowl. Alabama is appearing in their eighth straight bowl game, the first of which was a 20-16 loss to Minnesota in the 2004 Music City Bowl.
Fun facts: The University of Alabama SGA (Student Government Association) is known as “The Machine” due to its propensity for cranking out Alabama politicians.