Monthly Archives: August 2012

Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

Time for everyone’s favorite mathematically challenged conference, the Big Ten.

  1. Michigan (1.75 legit, 0.5 FCS): N-Alabama, Air Force, Massachusetts, @Notre Dame. One of the most intriguing inter-section games of the year has to be Michigan-Alabama. Also, by the time this is over I will probably actually finally know how to spell “Massachusetts”.
  2. Michigan State (1.25, 0): Boise State, @Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan. The game against Boise is interesting for sure. The road game against CMU is interesting as well, but it’s a shame they’re terrible again.
  3. Purdue (0.75, 1): Eastern Kentucky, @Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, Marshall. Too bad they couldn’t play East Carolina instead of Marshall, because they had a pretty good theme going there.
  4. Ohio State (0.5, 0): Miami, Central Florida, California, Alabama-Birmingham. This Miami is the one in Ohio. Other than that, the only thing going here is the game against Cal, but nonetheless Urban Meyer’s new crew will only have to leave Columbus 4 times this year.
  5. Pennsylvania State (0.5, 0): Ohio, @Virginia, Navy, Temple. I think it’s pretty safe to say they have bigger issues up on State College than their out-of-conference scheduling right now.
  6. Nebraska (0.5, 0): Southern Mississippi, @California-Los Angeles, Arkansas State, Idaho State. In a different era, the game at the Rose Bowl would be more interesting, but alas.
  7. Northwestern (0.5, 1): @Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota. In years past, this would’ve been good for a solid 0.75, but well, Boston College needs to stop being terrible.
  8. Illinois (0.25, 1): Western Michigan, @Arizona State, Charleston Southern, Louisiana Tech. I liked the yearly series against Mizzou, but I guess that’s over and done with now.
  9. Wisconsin (0.25, 1): Northern Iowa, @Oregon State, Utah State, Texas-El Paso. I’m having a hard time figuring out anything to write about this. Wisconsin should pretty much steamroll this bunch, right?
  10. Minnesota (0.25, 1): @Nevada-Las Vegas, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, Syracuse. It’s hard to really accuse bad teams of having bad schedules, especially when it’s still entirely possible they’ll lose one of these games.
  11. Iowa (0, 1): N-Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Central Michigan. Whereas it’s a lot easier to criticize the Iowas of the world for this sort of thing. There’s a cash-grab and road-trip-to-Decatur avoiding “neutral” site game with NIU and their two in-state rivals. Oh boy. Look for this one again in the epilogue.
  12. Indiana (0, 1.5): Indiana State, @Massachusetts, Ball State, @Navy. Did you know: UMass will play their home games at Gillette Stadium as they transition to FBS? Well, this is their marquee home game for the season. I still like Indiana’s chances, though, despite them being Indiana.

That’s that. Next up, the saddest group of schedules in the land: the Big 12.

Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Big East

It’s the Big East. Let’s get this over with.

  1. Syracuse (2.25 legit, 1 FCS): Northwestern, N-Southern California, Stony Brook, @Minnesota, @Missouri. 4 BCS conference teams out of 5 non-conference games is kind of crazy, even if one of them is Minnesota. Nonetheless, this may say more about Syrcause than anything else. If they were as good as they were in the late-90’s, would their schedule look like this? I doubt it.
  2. South Florida (1.5, 1): Tennessee-Chattanooga, @Nevada, @Ball State, Florida State, @Miami. USF benefits from playing both FSU and Miami (as in, “da U”). They might be the only major conference team to have three non-conference road games.
  3. Pittsburgh (1.25, 2): Youngstown State, Virginia Tech, Garnder-Webb, @Buffalo, @Notre Dame. The usual matchup with Notre Dame is in, but sadly, the Backyard Brawl is out. Also, traveling to Buffalo? I assume there’s a 3-for-1 involved here.
  4. Rutgers (1, 1): @Tulane, Howard, @Arkansas, Kent State, Army. Again, traveling to Tulane? Well, I guess they can sell travel packages for New Orleans or some such.
  5. Cincinnati (1, 2): Delaware State, N-Virginia Tech, Miami, Fordham, @Toledo. Again, the only thing I can figure for this rash of mid-major road games are 3-for-1 deals. The Big East needs to get to 9 teams if for no other reason than because this 5 non-conference games thing isn’t really working out for them, I’d say. Of course, I just remembered that this is Pitt and Syracuse’s last year in the Big East. Whoops!
  6. Temple (0.5, 1): Villanova, Maryland, Pennsylvania State, Army. Yes, that’s right, this is your only team in major college football with an 11 game schedule. That’s a heck of a way to dive back in, though. The Owls will play their inter-city rival in Villanova, and then play Pitt in-conference and Penn State at home. Not a bad way re-introduction.
  7. Louisville (0.5, 1): Kentucky, Missouri State, North Carolina, @Florida International, @Southern Mississippi. The Cardinals go on the road to both FIU and Southern Miss? Color me perplexed.
  8. Connecticut (0.5, 0.5): Massachusetts, North Carolina State, @Maryland, @Western Michigan, Buffalo. Well, at least they’ll have that 5 game OOC schedule thing fixed soon.

This will probably be the last year I include the Big East in this feature. Next year they will lose Pitt and Syracuse (the last two programs other than Rutgers that have any vague semblance of “tradition” or “history”) and add Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, Southern Methodist, Boise State, and San Diego State. At that point, they’ll basically be what Conference USA was before all these shenanigans started. Provided it even happens at all, which I honestly still have doubts about.

    Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

    First on the docket is the Atlantic Coast Conference. The format for this, and subsequent posts, is to list each team from 1-12 with the number of legit points in their OOC schedule and then number of FCS (the subdivision formerly known as DI-AA). There are lots of ties of course, which tend to be broken in arbitrary ways. Usually, I tend to favor a quantity of other major conference teams over quality simply because it’s harder to predict the ups-and-downs of your opponents (unless you’re scheduling Duke) and so playing two major conference teams is usually braver than playing just one. I also tend to slightly discount teams that are each other’s yearly rivalry. Generally, though, my main tiebreaker is the number of FCS teams played. Most teams play 1, but some play one or one of the transitional teams (which I count as “half” a FCS team), and a select few even play two. Anyway, let’s do this. Also, a “N-” means the game is at a neutral site, and teams in italics are FCS.

    1. Clemson (1.75 legit, 1 FCS): N-Auburn, Ball State, Furman, South Carolina. This is what I meant when I said that sometimes this is somewhat arbitrary. The neutral site game with Auburn should be fun once again, though, and is the most appealing out-of-conference ACC matchup.
    2. Miami (1.75, 1): @Kansas State, Bethune-Cookman, Notre Dame, South Florida. Yes, there’s three major conference teams here (though how much does the Big East really count anymore?) but I couldn’t put this over the top. Miami-Notre Dame is one of the few things that probably makes people wish it were the 80’s again, though.
    3. Florida State (1.5, 2): Murray State, Savannah State, @South Florida, Florida. This is your reminder that South Florida is not, in fact, in what most people would call southern Florida. Anyway, they should’ve just gone for the sweep and scheduled FAU and FIU.
    4. Virginia (1.25, 1): Richmond, Pennsylvania State, @Texas Christian, Louisiana Tech. I originally had Boston College ahead, but it’s not UVA’s fault what’s going on at Penn State and going to TCU is certainly a brave choice.
    5. Boston College (1.25, 1): Maine, @Northwestern, @Army, Notre Dame. Whereas BC plays Notre Dame all the time, and while Northwestern isn’t awful anymore they’re still Northwestern.
    6. Georgia Tech (1, 1): Presbyterian, Middle Tennessee State, Brigham Young, Georgia. There’s very little exciting about our OOC schedule this year. We play BYU for the first time since my freshman year in 2003. Hopefully we win this time.
    7. Virginia Tech (1, 1): Austin Peay, @Pittsburgh, Bowling Green, N-Cincinnati. This had the potential to be more exciting, but Pitt and Cincy are just too wildly inconsistent to get worked up about.
    8. Wake Forest (1,1): Liberty, Army, @Notre Dame, Vanderbilt. The Wake Forest-Vandy series continues, which is nice to see, though occasionally a bit confusing since they have the exact same color scheme.
    9. Maryland (0.75, 1): William & Mary, @Temple, Connecticut, @West Virginia. Maryland is getting kind of beat down thanks to the introduction of zeroes this year, but it’s not like they thought Temple was going to be in the Big East when they scheduled them. Also, how many points will WVU score on Maryland? My guess is somewhere around “a lot”.
    10. Duke (0.75, 1): Florida International, @Stanford, North Carolina Central, Memphis. I wonder if Duke will have more fans in Palo Alto than when Wake Forest came out here. I’ve got my doubts.
    11. North Carolina State (0.75, 1.5): N-Tennessee, @Connecticut, South Alabama, The Citadel. NC State playing Tennessee in Atlanta. It sort of makes sense, I guess. Maybe. Okay, not really, but it’s happening anyway.
    12. North Carolina (0.5, 1): Elon, @Louisville, East Carolina, Idaho. There’s not a whole lot to get excited about here, that’s for sure.

    Somewhat begrudgingly, next up is the Big East.

    Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

    Yes folks, we’re back! Let’s talk about football.

    We’ve slightly tweaked the rules for this scheduling rating thing. For starters, there are four transitional members to the top level of Division I this year: Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas State, and Texas-San Antonio. I’ve counted each of these as half a DI-AA (or DI-FCS) team, as they are not (for the most part) eligible for bowl games or conference championships. In years past, we also stuck to rating all BCS conference teams with a 0.25, 0.5, .75, or 1. However, we have now begun employing the zero rating for certain teams: Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Iowa State, Kansas, Connecticut, Temple, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Colorado, and Kentucky. Remember, this rating is a entirely subjective rating on our part of teams that we consider the “most desirable” for out-of-conference play, which as just as much to do with perception as it does them actually being any good (hence why Notre Dame still carries a 0.75).

    Also worth noting is the list of teams rated with a “1”: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Oregon, Southern California, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana State. Breaking it down by conference, that’s 2 for the ACC, 3 for the Big 12, 0 for the Big East, 5 for the Big Ten, 2 for the Pac-12, and 5 for the SEC.

    Averaging everything out by conference, and you get:

    1. SEC (0.696 legit average)
    2. Big Ten (0.583)
    3. Big 12 (0.527)
    4. Pac-12 (0.5)
    5. ACC (0.479)
    6. Big East (0.357)

    The addition of zeroes definitely hurt the ACC, Big East, and Big 12 the most, but this is probably a more accurate rating overall.

    Anyway, we’ll be doing the usual conference-by-conference break down over the next several days. Until then!