Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

Let’s start off our review with the Atlantic Coast Conference. An explanation of the rating system can be found here. FCS teams are indicated by italics. “N-” prefixes indicate neutral site games.

  1. Florida State (2 legit, 1 FCS): N-Alabama, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware State, @Florida. The ACC will get off to a crackin’ start on Labor Day weekend, and it’s not a coincidence the two teams that will play in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium are at the top of this list. (Which reminds me: is there a funny name out there for the new Dome? In Dallas there’s Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace, so what would the Atlanta equivalent be? Arthur Blank’s Pan-Universal Fun Dome? I’m open to suggestions.) Of course, don’t let the realization that it’s entirely possibly FSU and Bama will meet again, probable even, in the college football playoff. Especially not that they could meet in the very same stadium again.
  2. Georgia Tech (1.75, 1): N-Tennessee, Jacksonville State, @Central Florida, Georgia. Us Tech-types have been aching for years to get into the party that takes place every Labor Day weekend a mile from campus, so the the chance to make it four straight against the SEC East is just gravy. Meanwhile, I’m as against it as anyone else, but I will at least note that when you see major conference teams play games at Group of Five stadiums it’s usually as part of a multi-game deal or the major conference team is saving money. Hopefully I remember this when the return game comes around in 2020.
  3. Pittsburgh (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Pennsylvania State, Oklahoma State, Rice. This is an OOC schedule that checks all the boxes. 1) Does it involve a non-mandatory rivalry? Check. 2) Does it feature a geographically distant major-conference foe? Check.
  4. Clemson (1, 1): Kent State, Auburn, Citadel, @South Carolina. Clemson’s fate this season has vastly more to do with their in-conference games with Florida State and Louisville, but nonetheless the return game of this Tigers-Tigers series is rife with implication, provided Auburn is any good. Also, it gives us something to look forward to in the desert that usually is Week 2.
  5. Boston College (1, 0): @Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, @Connecticut. Okay, one road game against a G5 opponent I can understand, but how do you manage to get two on the schedule at once? Nonetheless, the Golden Eagles get credit for ducking a FCS opponent this year, depending on how you feel about UConn. (Which for most, I suspect, is nothing.)
  6. Syracuse (1, 1): Central Connecticut State, Middle Tennessee State, Central Michigan, @Louisiana State. So this year I switched the spreadsheet to a system that allowed the “legit” points to be grabbed from another sheet and automatically calculated. There were some occasional mistakes, but this is a good example of one I didn’t catch until I was putting the rankings together. “Yeah, let’s see, FCS, MTSU, Central Mich… oh right, LSU, yeah that should probably rate higher than 13th.”
  7. North Carolina State (1, 1): N-South Carolina, Marshall, Furman, @Notre Dame. It’s hard to know what to do with Notre Dame on an ACC team’s schedule these days, since it’s not really an organic matchup. So that’s how you get a game at LSU counting better than a game at Notre Dame and a neutral site game against South Carolina.
  8. Miami (1, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Arkansas State, Toledo, Notre Dame. Miami continues its tour of random G5 campuses, this team flying to… whereever you fly to get to Jonesboro, Arkansas. Memphis, I guess? Anyway, I decided to stay consistent with my earlier assessment of the Notre Dame thing.
  9. North Carolina (1, 1): California, @Old Dominion, Notre Dame, Western Carolina. Okay, seriously, what is up ACC teams? Did everyone get together at Media Days a few years ago and decide “yes, let’s schedule all of our road games against non-major opponents in the same season“? That’s four out of nine so far!
  10. Wake Forest (1, 1): Presbyterian, Utah State, @Appalachian State, @Notre Dame. 5 out of 10!
  11. Duke (0.5, 1): North Carolina Central, Northwestern, Baylor, @Army. 6 out of 11!
  12. Virginia (0.5, 1): William & Mary, Indiana, Connecticut, @Boise State. 7 out of 12!
  13. Virginia Tech (0.5, 1): N-West Virginia, Delaware, @East Carolina, Old Dominion. 8 out of 13!
  14. Louisville (0, 1): N-Purdue, Kent State, Murray State, @Kentucky. Nine out of… oh, right, Kentucky’s in the SEC.

Click below to see my closing thoughts.


In the hopes you don’t see 9-14 as a cop out, here’s some serious commentary:

  • That Cal game is all about the return trip. 
  • Hot take: Wake will either got 4-0 against that slate or 1-3, with no in between.
  • The @Army game seriously isn’t some sort of Mike Krzyzewksi thing, right?
  • If I were a UVA fan I’d be seriously worried about going 0-4 against that slate. Oof.
  • asimsports wholeheartedly endorses non-conference games against West Virginia, but, uh, anywhere but NFL stadiums, and especially anywhere but Fedex Field.
  • Okay, so the Kentucky joke was a bit of a cheap shot, especially considering who won last year. Playing a neutral site game against, uh, Purdue is, um, interesting?

Speaking of the Boilermakers, they’re up next!

    Rating the 2017 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

    And we’re back!

    Let’s start with the usual explanation. Since 2008, each summer, my brother and I surveil all of the Power 5 teams and selected Group of 5 teams and assign each a “legit” rating. This rating is on a scale of 0 to 1 in increments of .25. The rating system is extremely subjective: a third party reading would probably reveal our biases. However, we don’t declare the work done until we assign a rating for 72 different teams and agree on it. An explanation of the ratings:

    • 0: these are generally teams that aren’t and haven’t been very historically good, or otherwise do not generate any excitement when you see them on your non-conference schedule. Examples include Iowa State and Rutgers. This year 24 of the rated teams earned zeroes. It’s worth noting we didn’t use this rating until 2012. Last year 19 teams were rated at this level.
    • 0.25: these are teams that might generate some excitement if you’re college football geek, or we think they may be interesting this year. Examples this year include Washington State and Minnesota. We rated 10 teams at 0.25 this year, down from 11 last year.
    • 0.5: This is the passing lane of ratings, featuring either teams on an upswing (like Pittsburgh and Utah) or teams on a downswing (like Mississippi and Michigan State). Boise State also appears here, as our highest rated Group of 5 team. 10 teams were also rated at this level, down from 14 last year.
    • 0.75: this is usually the domain of power conference teams that have stagnated that are still interesting, or teams that we’d probably like to see play but feel like would be underrated by the community at large. Teams of this stripe include Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. Full disclosure: this is also where we put Georgia Tech, because as noted above these ratings are subjective. We also rated 10 teams at 0.75 this year, up from 7 last year.
    • 1: These are the blue-bloods impervious to changes, or teams that have been really good to national title contenders over the past 10 years or so. Essentially, this is Notre Dame: it doesn’t matter if they went 4-8 last year, they’re still a 1 because they’re Notre freakin’ Dame. There were 18 of them this year, down from 21 last year.

    As usual, we list all the teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, California-Los Angeles, Clemson, Florida, Florida State,  Georgia, Louisiana State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, and Texas. The teams in bold have been 1’s every year we’ve done the rankings. Yes, even Notre Dame got pipped from the 1’s one time, pulling a 0.75 in 2012, but I don’t think what I wrote above is a contradiction.

    Other than Notre Dame, the other non-Power 5 teams to earn ratings this year were Boise State (0.5) and Houston (0.25). The average overall rating was 0.4583.

    With that, let’s close with the rating of each conference:

    1. Southeastern: 0.536
    2. Pac-12: 0.521
    3. Atlantic Coast: 0.482
    4. Big 12: 0.472
    5. Big Ten: 0.429

    I guess we don’t go in for gray skies and the Iowas of the world. At any rate, the first up will be the home of the defending national champions and the banes of the SEC East: the ACC.

    Bowl Games 2016: Epilogue

    Once again, I need to get this out of the way before moving to our World Cup qualifying content and a special project I’ve been working on for a while.

    I wound up going 22-19, a solid 53.6%. That puts me at 320-258 since 1999, or 55.36% overall. I’m still slightly better than a coin flip, woo!

    Again, we won’t quite be on our summer hiatus yet. See you soon!

    Bowl Games 2016: Final

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Monday, January 9th
    8:30: Clemson vs. Alabama (College Football Playoff Championship Game @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): I looked over the post I made for this matchup last year and, well, most of it still applies. So let’s break this down by unit.
    The place to start is the unit that’s been in the news for most of the past week: the Alabama offense. Coordinated by Lane Kiffin for most of the past three years, culminating with this season’s relatively wide-open offense headed up by a mobile freshman quarterback. This is not the Alabama blueprint we’ve come to be familiar with. However, Alabama has yet to face a defensive line the quality of Clemson’s, except maybe for LSU. The final score in that game? 10-0. There’s also the reason they’ve been in the news: Lane Kiffin by all accounts wanted to continue to coach Alabama in the playoffs before heading off to his new gig, but was forced out. Subsequently, the Tide promoted one of their video room guys, former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian, to offensive coordinator. Since he wasn’t a coach, he wasn’t on the sidelines on gamedays and (was supposed to have) had little contact with the players at all. It’s easy to speculate on the impact this will have, but that’s all I’d be doing. So I’ll just stick to figuring it’ll make some difference either way.
    The Clemson offense, meanwhile, returned Deshaun Watson and virtually all their skill players from last year’s team. While at times lacking focus this season, they responded emphatically when it mattered, as Ohio State found out last week. Again, the chess match in this game is the Clemson offense versus the Alabama defense.
    The Tide defense is practically legendary at this point. There simply isn’t a better defense in college football. But if there’s anyone that’s not scared of these guys, it’s Clemson. They put up 40 last year and nearly won the game. Will Saban and go be prepared to counter them this year? How will they respond to things Clemson hasn’t done before? We saw how that went for Ohio State last week.
    The Clemson defense isn’t as well know, but they’re almost as good, especially on the defense line. They lived in the Ohio State backfield most of last week. I figured the Buckeyes had a giid chance in that game because they’d have the athletes to do what most ACC offensive lines couldn’t, which is block them. I was dead wrong. Ohio State looked confused and disoriented most of the night along the line, which made the Buckeye offense dead in the water. The question is, can I talk myself into thinking the Alabama offensive line can block them? I’m not sure.
    For all the hand-wringing about the playoffs going into this game, it definitely feels like we got the best two teams in one place. Few other teams this season were as dominant on both sides of the ball. And from watching the games last week and thinking about it for the past week, I have talked myself into a slight Clemson upset. They’ve got plenty of experience, and they’re going to be motivated to take care of business this year.
    Previous meetings: Obviously, the most recent meeting between these two was in last year’s game, which Alabama won 45-40. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that still means they haven’t beaten Alabama since October 25, 1905 and they’re 3-13 against the Tide all time.
    Last bowl game: Technically, their previous round matchups against Ohio State and Washington, respectively. See that post for the details.
    Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

    Bowl Games 2016: Happy New Year!

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Monday, January 2nd
    1:00:

    • Iowa vs. Florida (Outback Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ABC): This one o’clock timeslot doesn’t look terribly enticing, if I’m being honest. First, we have two offensively challenged teams, though one seems to act as though it has slightly shackles than the other. Somehow, that team is Iowa. But it’s about picking your poison, and the poison for this game is that there will probably be a lot of head-scratching, over-conservative playcalling.
      Previous meetings: Three, and mostly in bowls of recent vintage. The first was a 14-6 Florida win in the 1983 Gator Bowl. The second was a 37-17 win in the 2003-04 Outback Bowl. The third was in the 2005-06 Outback Bowl, a 31-24 Florida win.
      Last bowl game: This is Iowa’s fourth straight bowl, going back to the 2013-14 Outback Bowl, where they lost to LSU 21-14. Last season they got pasted 45-16 by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. As for the Gators, this will be their third straight post-season appearance. They defeated East Carolina 28-20 in the 2013-14 Birmingham Bowl, and last season they lost 41-7 to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
      Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham
    • Wisconsin vs. Western Michigan (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): Whereas the problem with this game is that, well, if it’s anywhere close I’ll be absolutely stunned. Yes, Western Michigan is 2-0 against the Big Ten, but that was against an undersized Northwestern and an awful Illinois team. Wisconsin is one of the biggest teams around, and their defense is elite. If the Badgers treat this game seriously (potentially a big if), I don’t think it’ll be close.
      Previous meetings: As one might guess, this Big Ten vs. MAC matchup has been played a few times, but not many more, with meetings in 1963, 1981, 1988, and 2000. Wisconsin has won all of them, except for a 24-14 win for Broncos in 1988. Otherwise, it’s been all Badgers
      Last bowl game: This is Wisconsin’s 15th straight bowl appearance, tied with Boise State for the sixth longest streak. Correspondingly, you need to go back to a 31-28 win over Colorado in the 2002 Alamo Bowl to find the beginning of this run. They edged Southern Cal 23-21 in last season’s Holiday Bowl. For the Broncos, this is their third straight appearance. They lost 38-24 to Air Force in the 2014 Potato Bowl and beat Middle Tennessee State 45-31 in last season’s Bahamas Bowl.
      Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Brock Huard

    5:00: Pennsylvania State vs. Southern California (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): Don’t look, but it’s entirely possible the best team in the second half of the season was the University of Southern California Trojans. They rolled off eight wins to close the season, including a close win over a resurgent Colorado and a score-makes-it-look-closer-than-it-was 26-13 win over Washington in Seattle. Even if you’re as skeptical of “momentum” as I am, it’s hard to deny this team is hot. Yet, if we apply the same metrics to Penn State, we see they won nine in a row to close the season, including wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin. The main difference would seem to the manner in which these teams earned their best wins, but that’s ultimately beside the point. Both these teams are young and have all the reasons in the world to go into this game and make a statement, and I expect a contest that’s the opposite of those at the 1:00 slot. I have USC, but not by much.
    Previous meetings: Nine! The first was all the back in the 1922-23 Rose Bowl, which Southern Cal won 14-3. Fast forward to the 1981-82 season for their next meeting, a 26-10 Penn State win in the Fiesta Bowl. A regular season series was played six times from 1990-2000, and then their last meeting was in the 2008-09 Rose Bowl, a 38-24 USC win. The Trojans hold a narrow 5-4 series lead.
    Last bowl game: This is Penn State’s third straight bowl game. They beat Boston College 31-30 in the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl and lost to Georgia in last season’s Taxslayer Bowl. USC, meanwhile, probably doesn’t like to reflect much on the 2012 Sun Bowl, what with the 21-7 loss to Georgia Tech and all. Nonetheless, that was the start of their current five game bowl streak, with the most recent entry being a 23-21 loss to Wisconsin in last season’s Holiday Bowl.
    Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

    8:30: Auburn vs. Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Oklahoma is here because the Sooners won 10 games and had losses to Houston and Ohio State, which are both legitimate losses. They then Boomer Soonered their way through the Big 12, emerging unscathed with an undisputed conference title. Auburn is here because the Sugar Bowl is designated for the highest ranked available SEC team, and, well, every SEC team other than Alabama had at least four losses. Auburn’s four losses wound up being the most respectable compared to Tennessee and Florida, so here they are. Suffice it to say, I have Oklahoma all the way here.
    Previous meetings: Just one, and in this 1971-72 edition of this game. The Sooners won 40-22.
    Last bowl game: This is Auburn’s fourth straight postseason game, going back to the 2013-14 BCS Championship Game, where they lost 34-31 to Florida State. Last season they pasted Memphis 31-10 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Sooners own the country’s fourth longest streak of postseason appearances, with this being their 18th consecutive one. Their streak began with the 1999 Independence Bowl, which they lost to Ole Miss 27-25. Last season, they were defeated 37-17 by Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
    Announcers: Brent Musberger and Jesse Palmer