Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 3

They’re in the usual place if you just want to see where I’m guessing teams will wind up.

As we get toward the end of the season, this gets a little easier, of course. But at some point, historically this week, I’d attempt to incorporate rumors or other hints about what bowl reps (generally known by their bombastically-colored blazers) were up to, i.e., “there were representatives from the Independence Bowl in the press box today…”

That doesn’t really happen anymore. Most bowl selections are now in the hands of the conferences and/or ESPN. Also, before the playoff era, teams would generally find out their postseason destinations after Thanksgiving. However, with the playoff and New Year’s Six bowls taking 12 teams from 6 conferences, how many teams a particular conference sends to these bowls greatly affects the downstream picture.

For example, in this set of predictions I have Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas A&M all in the playoff or New Year’s Six. So sure, the SEC currently has 11 bowl eligible teams, but in my scenario the conference still won’t fulfill its second tier bowl obligations.

Next up, we have the general outlook of the bowl picture. As it currently stands, there are 72 bowl eligible teams. There are 41 bowl games this season. (I obviously like bowl games a lot, but even I think that 41 might be too many.) My latest set of predictions – informed by SP+ – get me to 79 bowl eligible teams, which leaves me three short. The NCAA bowl eligibility rules then state that 5-7 teams are eligible, sorted by priority from highest APR down. So that’s how Rutgers, Middle Tennessee State, and Syracuse show up on my board. This is somewhat complicated by the fact I’m using old data because the NCAA has said that it will not publicly release the 2019-2020 data for APR.

So there we have it. The real test will come tomorrow night, when we see how the committee deals with Oregon’s loss.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (ABC): It’s not the Big Game, but this year at least it’s a close runner-up. That said, I’ll still take the Buckeyes here.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (FOX): Oklahoma finally took a loss last week, as we’ve sort figured they would. But in what’s been a disappointing year for the Cyclones, I don’t see the trick repeating.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPN): Wake also finally lost last week, though it doesn’t get any easier. This will be the ultimate test of their offense – and I’m not sure they’ll pass.
  • Texas @ West Virginia (ESPN2): Losing to Kansas seems like a lowpoint, and I guess my thing is that it just seems to indicative of the seeming dysfunction in Austin that I like the ‘Neers here.
  • New Mexico State @ Kentucky (SEC): No worries for the Wildcats here.
  • Purdue vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): So, in case you didn’t know, this game is going to be played at Wrigley Field for some reason. I did the ballpark tour there over the summer, and it’s not unprecedented – the Bears did play there for years, after all. Nonetheless, it still seems kinda silly. At any rate, I also like the Boilermakers.
  • Rutgers @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Rutgers is improved this year, sure, but not improved enough to win in Happy Valley.
  • Massachusetts @ Army (CBSS): Army should be able to handle their business against one of, if not the, worst teams in FBS.
  • Florida State @ Boston College (ACCN): BC’s quarterback should be able to have another field day against FSU’s defense.
  • Wofford @ North Carolina (ACC/RSN)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky (Stadium)
  • Charleston Southern @ Georgia (ESPN+)
  • Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M (ESPN+)
  • Tennessee State @ Mississippi State (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ Tulsa (ESPN+)
  • Kent State @ Akron (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Illinois @ Iowa (FS1): Remember when Illinois beat Nebraska? Yeah… Hawkeyes all the way here.
  • Arkansas State @ Georgia State (espn3.com)
  • Montana State @ Montana (ESPN+)

2:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (NBC): So the conventional wisdom is that Tech can’t really afford to fire Collins at this point, and will probably need to wait until after next season to reduce his buyout.
  • Washington @ Colorado (Pac12): UDub should be able to take care of business against the woeful Buffs.

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Alabama (CBS): Arkansas has been one of the most surprisingly fun teams of the year, but this one doesn’t figure to be much fun.
  • Nebraska @ Wisconsin (ABC): My prediction is that Nebraska will keep it tight, but find a way to lose by 7 points or less.
  • Southern Methodist @ Cincinnati (ESPN): Cincy needs style points, and in some ways maybe playing a stronger opponent will actually work out better for them. We’ll see if that theory holds up, but either, this will be the best team they play unless they get Houston in the AAC title game.
  • Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): UVA’s defense likely won’t be able to stop Pitt’s offense, which is an extremely weird sentence that probably will only make sense this year.
  • Michigan @ Maryland (BTN): Probably not this year, Terps.
  • Minnesota @ Indiana (BTN): This one could be weird – Minnesota’s been better than you realize, but probably not great. Indiana has had a down year due to injuries, but they can still claw this out. I’ll take the Gophers but I don’t feel great about it.
  • East Carolina @ Navy (CBSS): This just doesn’t seem like Navy’s year, I’ll take ECU.
  • Marshall @ Charlotte (Stadium)
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Appalachian State @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (FOX): What this rivalry lacks in terms of a moniker it usually makes up for in style. While that should be true here, this nonetheless isn’t a great set of teams. UCLA’s been a tad better this year, so I’ll go with the Bruins.
  • Louisiana @ Liberty (ESPNU): Go Cajuns.
  • Florida @ Missouri (SEC): Yes, the Gators did lose to South Carolina. But I can’t see them losing to Mozzou, but I will also say I have zero plans or inclination to watch this at all.
  • Syracuse @ North Carolina State (ACCN): NC State should be okay here.
  • Connecticut @ Central Florida (ESPN+)
  • Kansas @ Texas Christian (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)
  • Brigham Young @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Tulane (ESPN+)

5:30: Baylor @ Kansas State (FS1): K-State is definitely the kind of team that can knock you off your “just beat OU” perch, But Baylor still figures to just plain out-score ’em.

7:00:

  • Auburn @ South Carolina (ESPN): Even without Bo Nix here, Auburn should be a straightforward favorite.
  • Wyoming @ Utah State (“Bridger’s Battle”; CBSS): Wyoming is 5-5, but only one of those wins has come in Mountain West play. I expect this trend to continue.
  • California @ Stanford (“The Big Game”; Pac12): Well, both of these teams feature somewhat dysfunction offenses, but Cal has just generally looked worse over the course of the season. This doesn’t figure to be a classic edition of the Big Game for sure.
  • North Texas @ Florida International (espn3.com)

7:30:

  • Oregon @ Utah (ABC): Oregon should win this, but by far the best they’ve looked all season was in Columbus. I still have the Ducks here, but going on the road to Salt Lake City is always going to be a tough out in the Pac-12.
  • South Alabama @ Tennessee (ESPNU): Vols should have no problems here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss should have no problems here,
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ACCN): Well, VPI went and did it finally by firing Fuente. But I don’t think VPI has actually played all that badly, whereas Miami has just been, well, not great! I don’t think they’re on the verge of getting rid of Manny, though, so this game may actually be kind of awkward. I will honestly take VPI here.

8:00: Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (FOX): Eh, I’ll still go with Okie State. Texas Tech is just the “oh yeah I definitely understand why they fired there coach a few weeks ago” sort of bad.

9:00:

  • New Mexico @ Boise State (FS1): Boise’s not quite Boise this year, but they’re still Boise enough to beat New Mexico on the trademark blue turf.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana State (ESPN2): Monroe has no prayer in this game, but it could still be funny. Plus: this may well the be the greatest tailgate in the history of college football. I almost wonder if there’s any andouille left in the state today?

10:30: Arizona State @ Oregon State (ESPN): And now, some Pac-12 After Dark. At the beginning of the year, I would’ve said Sun Devils all the way, but at this point – yeah, I’ll take those Beavers.

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 2

Fresh and hot here.

Here’s the highlights:

  • I still don’t have enough teams, but I’m down to only two this week. I suspect we’ll get some upsets that will help shake things up. I’m still trying to figure out what the APR situation is for any 5-win teams.
  • For now, I’m projecting Cincy into the top 4. I know I’m not the only one doing this, but my logic is essentially that a 2-loss non-conference champ Alabama isn’t going to get in. Normally I would wait for the CFP rankings to be released each week, but I’m trying very hard to get these out before the Tuesday MAC games, so I can only guess at their machinations.
  • Just a reminder, with the number of bowls that are owned by ESPN Events (about half of them, especially pretty much every pre-Christmas bowl) there is a very high degree of guessing to all of this these days.

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (FOX): Ordinarily, I feel like I’d say something here along the lines of “well, this is one of the best chances for Oklahoma to lose this season”, but the problem with the Sooners is that that’s been true several times already! I’m not sure what can kill them at this point. I’ll take them until proven otherwise.
  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): I’m taking Michigan here, but Happy Valley still seems like a bit of vipers, even if Penn State still has quarterback issues.
  • Mississippi State @ Auburn (ESPN): It’s been a rough few weeks for the Bo Nix show, but I think Auburn will still prevail here.
  • Northwestern @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Yeah, Northwestern has no chance here.
  • West Virginia @ Kansas State (FS1): This one may well be close, but I’ll still take K-State.
  • Central Florida @ Southern Methodist (ESPNU): It’s just not UCF’s year in Year 1 of Gus, it seems.
  • Rutgers @ Indiana (BTN): It’s been a down year for Indiana, but I think they can still beat Rutgers.
  • Bucknell @ Army (CBSS)
  • Connecticut @ Clemson (ACCN): Clemson.
  • Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC/RSN): Louisville.
  • East Carolina @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ Temple (ESPN+)
  • Samford @ Florida (ESPN+/SEC+)

2:00:

  • Utah @ Arizona (Pac12): Hey, so I’m hitting the road this weekend and I don’t plan to take something with a full keyboard with me, so I can’t really do this thing justice. So from here on out, it’s mostly going to be the LIGHTNING ROUND. Utes!
  • Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Rice (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Purdue @ Ohio State (ABC): Buckeyes, though they should probably watch out in case Purdue somehow pulls this trick a third time.
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS): Georgia.
  • Miami @ Florida State (“Florida Cup”; ESPN): Miami?
  • Iowa State @ Texas Tech (ESPN2): Cyclones!
  • Minnesota @ Iowa (BTN): Gophers?
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Marshall (CBSS): Go Blazers.
  • Duke @ Virginia (ACCN): Virginia.
  • Boston College @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): I think I said at the beginning of the year that this was a “put up or shut up” year. And, well, we’re not putting up. Yet the coaching staff continues to deflect blame and not take responsibility. The schtick is getting old, fast.
  • Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech (Stadium)
  • Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (espn3.com)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana @ Troy State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Maryland @ Michigan State (FOX): Sparty!
  • Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPNU): Green Wave!
  • South Carolina @ Missouri (SEC): Tigers?
  • Texas-El Paso @ North Texas (ESPN+)

5:00: Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

5:30: Stanford @ Oregon State (Pac12): By all rights, the Beavers should win this one, and Stanford shouldn’t have any suprises left.

7:00:

  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): This might well be the game of the day, really. I think Ole Miss has the offense to challenge the Aggies, provided Corral is okay. I suspect TAMU will pull it out, but it’s going to be close.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2): Kentucky.
  • Arizona State @ Washington (FS1): Both of these teams are in such disarray it’s really hard to pick a favorite here. In years past it would’ve been UDub easily, but maybe with Lake out that will actually help? Sound as good to me as anything else.
  • Air Force @ Colorado State (CBSS): Falcons?
  • New Mexico @ Fresno State (Stadium)

7:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Virginia (ABC): Domers.
  • Kansas @ Texas (ESPNU): Longhorns.
  • Arkansas @ Louisiana State (SEC): Whompin’!
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Wake gets its second stiffest challenge of the season so far in the game after losing their first own. I think that NC State is actually just good enough to beat them, straight up, so I’ll take them here.

8:00: Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FOX): I still like the Pokes here.

9:00: Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): Bruins?

10:30:

  • Washington State @ Oregon (ESPN): So this is technically for control of the Pac-12 North, and the Ducks certainly give their opponents plenty of leash. I think they will win the end, but could be dices.
  • Utah State @ San Jose State (FS1): Aggies?
  • Nevada @ San Diego State (CBSS): Aztecs.

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 1

It’s that time again, folks. The first set of projections are here.

Here’s how this works. Each weekend from now until the end of the season, I project out every potential bowl eligible team. In the past, I had pretty much eyeballed this, but these days I now use SP+ to project each team’s final record.

I then attempt to determine the College Football Playoff controlled games based on their rules and precedents. Remember, my projections are attempting to extrapolate out from now through the last weekend of the season.

For non-CFP games, I attempt to apply each conference’s selection criteria to the bowls they are partnered with. Unfortunately, this is when the science starts to get very, very inexact. With the latest bowl deals that nominally took effect for the 2020 season, almost every conference has abandoned any sort of performance-based criteria for how their bowls are seeded. In addition, some conferences, especially in the Group-of-Five, have ceded almost all control of where their teams are placed to ESPN events, which owns about half of the bowl games.

This makes the call of which teams go where nearly impossible to predict anymore. Nonetheless, I will give it a shot and see if I can learn anything this year that I can apply to future seasons. I didn’t really do bowl predictions last year because half of the games were canceled and many teams opted-out.

An additional wrinkle for this week is that I am short five teams for all available slots. I will work in future weeks to determine what remedies may be available if this actually happens, but in the meantime any game that is lacking a team should have a “???” in at least one of its slots.