Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 3: Big Ten

Okay, I am really busy right now, but I should be able to finish all of these before the season starts. Let’s do one right now, shall we?

  1. Michigan (1.5 legit, 1 DI-AA): Connecticut, @Notre Dame, Massachusetts, Bowling Green. This schedule is pretty “meh” because they play Notre Dame pretty much every year. What gets them over the top is the game with UConn. UMass continues the new Michigan trend of scheduling patsies. I think RichRod can figure to get at least two, if not three, wins out of this part of the schedule. But then again, it’s difficult to image that Michigan has actually been as bad as they have been the past couple of years.
  2. Ohio State (1, 0): Marshall, Miami (FL), Ohio, Eastern Michigan. As I said during the ACC preview, Ohio State-Miami is one of the most interesting inter-conference games on the schedule this year. The rest of this schedule is pretty bad, though. Marshall and Ohio had decent years last year, but Eastern Michigan was 0-12.
  3. Pennsylvania State (1, 1): Youngstown State, @Alabama, Kent State, Temple. Also interesting is Penn State’s game at Alabama. I actually had to double-check to make sure this was happening, and yes it is. The rest of this schedule is fluff – there should be a law that Pitt and Penn State have to play each other every year.
  4. Minnesota (1, 1): @Middle Tennessee State, South Dakota, Southern California, Northern Illinois. There’s something to be said for offsetting your return trip to MTSU by getting USC at home. The question for the Gophers is will they manage to win both of those? And if they only win one, will it be the one they should win?
  5. Purdue (1, 1): @Notre Dame, Western Illinois, Ball State, Toledo. This is pretty much a boilerplate Big Ten schedule: Notre Dame, DI-AA team, and a double serving of some MACtion. Yawn.
  6. Michigan State (1, 1): Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame, Northern Colorado. Well, this one has some Sun Belt mixed in as well. For some reason the FAU game is in Detroit. I would guess that still counts as a home game for MSU.
  7. Iowa (0.75, 1): Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, @Arizona, Ball State. Yes, you may have two BCS conference teams on your schedule Iowa, but they’re not very good. Nonetheless, Iowa has managed to lose 5 of their last 10 games with Iowa State, which makes you scratch your head a bit.
  8. Illinois (0.5, 1): N-Missouri, Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, @Fresno State. We continue to applaud the Illinois-Mizzou series, it’s just that neither team is very interesting or likely to be good this year. Illinois more so than Mizzou. If Zook hasn’t been fired already, the game at Fresno may be for his job.
  9. Wisconsin (0.5, 1): @Nevada-Las Vegas, San Jose State, Arizona State, Austin Peay. I wonder how many comp’ed casino drinks it takes to get a Wisconsinite drunk? (My guess: at least 20.) Nonetheless, the Arizona State game is somewhat interesting and hopefully Wisconsin continues to take their scheduling in that direction.
  10. Northwestern (0.25, 1): @Vanderbilt, Illinois State, @Rice, Central Michigan. Man, if NU played Duke this year they would’ve played the entirety of the “small DI-A private shcools” circuit. Other than that, there’s not much to say other than we’ll miss being able to make ourselves seem smarter than we actually are by making Kafka jokes.
  11. Indiana (0, 1): Towson, @Western Kentucky, Akron, Arkansas State. Indiana may not be the worst team in the Big Ten this year, but this schedule sure is. But hey, the objective I suspect is to go 4-0, beat two of Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, or Michigan and go to a bowl.

Anyway, I have to run, but hopefully next week I can go from one part of the heartland to another by taking on the Big XII. See you then!

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 2: Big East

    All right, it’s time for the Big East. Remember, these guys have 5 out-of-conference games so their legit scores will seem higher than most other conferences (which is why for my overall ratings I use averages). Anyway, let’s get this over with:

    1. Pittsburgh (2.75 legit, 1 DI-AA): @Utah, New Hampshire, Miami (FL), Florida International, @Notre Dame. Even accounting for the 5 OOC teams, this is still a pretty good OOC schedule. Going back to the ACC column for a second, we’ll recall that some conferences are looking for legitimacy and the Big East probably needs it more than anyone else. Pitt beating Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame would be a good start.
    2. South Florida (2, 1): Stony Brook, @Florida, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, @Miami (FL). Well, at least all the major Florida teams will be no more than one step away from the others thanks to South Florida. Nonetheless, while the Bulls probably have a chance in the Big East, they probably don’t have a chance against the two biggest foes on their schedule.
    3. Cincinnati (1.25, 1): @Fresno State, Indiana State, @North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Miami (OH). I’m not sure whether the Oklahoma game is a neutral site game or not since it is still technically in Cincinnati, it just will be at the Bengals’s stadium instead of the Bearcats’. I guess it depends on how the split the ticket sales. Outside of that, there’s not much to work with here except for the somewhat unusual trip out to Fresno.
    4. Connecticut (1.25, 1): @Michigan, Texas Southern, @Temple, Buffalo, Vanderbilt. At Temple? Outside of that, this is okay, if not a little pedestrian. The Michigan game will probably be a barometer for both teams, which probably makes most in the maize and blue shake their heads a bit.
    5. West Virginia (1.25, 1): Coastal Carolina, @Marshall, Maryland, @Louisiana State, Nevada-Las Vegas. When I think West Virginia, I always think about how crazy and wide open they were under Rodriguez, so for a split second I was excited about their trip to Baton Rouge before I remembered that he’s not there anymore.
    6. Louisville (1, 1): Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, @Oregon State, @Arkansas State, Memphis. Instead of playing all the teams in Kentucky that they could (no love for Western Kentucky, which is, you know, in DI-A?) they instead to go and play at….Arkansas State? I wonder if that will be on TV because I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a game broadcast from there.
    7. Syracuse (1, 2): @Akron, @Washington, Maine, Boston College, Colgate. So the ‘Cuse is probably past the point where they have to worry about losing to Akron, Maine, and Colgate (though I note that Akron game is at Akron). So that’s three wins right there. Though the Quest for Toronto is dead, is this the year the Orangemen make their first bowl game since 2004?
    8. Rutgers (0.5, 1): Norfolk State, @Florida International, North Carolina, Tulane, N-Army. I’m sorry, this schedule sucks. There’s no two ways about it. Sure, there’s the trip to Miami, and the neutral site game at the New Meadowlands that I really need to come up with a clever nickname for. Jiants Stadium? Hrm.

    Anyway, just us next time for a discussion of the extra-conference games of the Big Ten .

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate, Part 1: ACC

    The ACC actually has a lot of make-or-break out-of-conference games this year, a big deal for a conference hoping to live up to their new TV deal. As an ACC fan, let me tell you a lot of folks in this conference (especially from the “southern wing”) suffer from what I call “SEC-envy”. Unlike many of these folks, I don’t think the media is actively biased against the conference. That said, sometimes the conference doesn’t really help itself. But with the nation’s 2nd toughest OOC schedule as a group (with a “legit average” of 0.3177) the ACC will have its chances to show its mettle. Let’s get started.

    Oh, I should note that in some cases, schools were tied with the same rating, in which case the tie is broken first by the number of DI-AA teams on the schedule and then completely arbitarily.

    1. Florida State (2.5 legit, 1 DI-AA): Samford, @Oklahoma, Brigham Young, Florida. Hope of getting back to the ACC forefront abounds in Tallahassee this year, and this schedule can help with 3 pretty legit teams on the slate. Florida is of course a rivalry game, but Seminole fans have to be hoping Christian Ponder can show Sooner fans what they’re missing this year. If FSU can win two of the big three of these they will finish the season ranked, provided their defense doesn’t catch fire within the conference again.
    2. Miami (1.75, 1): Florida A&M, @Ohio State, @Pittsburgh, South Florida. Okay, this isn’t, your, um, older brother’s Miami team, but a rematch of a national title game is always fun. 
    3. Clemson (1.75, 1): North Texas, Presbyterian, @Auburn, South Carolina. Well, it’s not Clemson-Georgia but Tigers vs. Tigers is always fun. 
    4. North Carolina (1.5, 1): N-Louisiana State, @Rutgers, East Carolina, William & Mary. Well, the biggest thing here is the season kick-off neutral site against LSU. Most ACC partisans feel LSU is ripe for the pickin’ in this game, but then they turn around say that UNC themselves is extremely beatable. So we’ll see. I will say that if there’s year that LSU seems vulnerable, to me, this is it.
    5. Georgia Tech (1.5, 1): South Carolina State, @Kansas, Middle Tennessee State, @Georgia. Well, we get post-Mangino Kansas in Lawrence. Um, outside of that, there’s not really much to say about this slate, other than that the MTSU series is a 2-for-1 and I think the trip to Murfeesboro is next year.
    6. Boston College (1.25, 1): Weber State, Kent State, Notre Dame, @Syracuse. I have no idea what to say about this schedule. They’ll be favored to win all of these except ND, and even then they should have a pretty good chance. Oh, and it just gets worse from here.
    7. Duke (1, 1): Elon, Alabama, Army, @Navy. Let’s be clear here: two of three are on the schedule because this is Duke, which is also the reason they’re on Alabama’s joke of a schedule. 
    8. Maryland (1, 1): N-Navy, Morgan State, @West Virginia, Florida International. The Navy game is in Baltimore, which should be fun except that I think Navy is probably going to win. I wish Maryland could play Colorado in the “battle of coaches who probably should have been fired a year ago” bowl.
    9. Virginia (1, 2): Richmond, @Southern California, Virginia Military, Eastern Michigan. The only ACC team playing two DI-AA teams, they probably need it the most. At least their new coach probably shouldn’t lose to Richmond.
    10. Virginia Tech (0.75, 1): N-Boise State, James Madison, East Carolina, Central Michigan. I don’t know if the VPI-Boise State game is THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN ACC HISTORY, but it is a big deal for the conference. Once again, VPI can use their opening game as the kick off to a darkhorse national title run, while this is the most important game on Boise’s schedule. So that is one to watch. The rest of this schedule? Not so much.
    11. Wake Forest (0.75, 1): Presbyterian, @Stanford, Navy, @Vanderbilt. Let’s see… anything clever to say about this? Well, um, both Vandy and Wake have gold and black as their primary colors. Um. Yeah, I got nothin’. Oh, well, yes, Stanford is still only worth 0.5 points, one year does not grant you legitimacy. 
    12. North Carolina State (0.5, 1): Western Carolina, @Central Florida, Cincinnati, @East Carolina. Who is the AD at NCSU? How did you end up scheduling two mid-majors away in the same year? There are a lot of schedules worse than this one. But there are also a lot of better ones. But then again, NCSU has been pretty solidly “mediocre-to-bad” since 2003, so if the same AD has been there the entire time (I’m too lazy to look) they should have been fired a long time ago anyway.

    Join us next time, for the Big East!

    Rating the 2010 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

    It’s that time once again, boys and girls. The rules from 2008 still apply, so let’s get right down to business.

    First, let’s do the list of “1”, that is, the teams we judge to be the most desirable to play. We fully acknowledge the inclusion of Georgia Tech in this group is very biased: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Southern Cal, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 5 “1”s for the ACC, 1 for the Big East, 3 for the Big 12, 3 for the Big Ten, 2 for the Pac-10, and 6 for the SEC. So the breakdown below by conference probably won’t be that surprising:

    1. SEC (0.75 average)
    2. Big Ten (0.659)
    3. ACC (0.604)
    4. Pac-10 (0.6)
    5. Big 12 (0.5625)
    6. Big East (0.5625)

    That’s a pretty sharp one-year decline for the Big 12, which went from tied for 2nd to tied for last. The main explanation for the Big 12 is probably the decline of the former glimmers of hope in the Big 12 North (Kansas and Missouri) and Colorado has been so bad for so long now that their desirability rating finally took a hit. The Pac-10 is ready to break out, I think, especially if Stanford and Washington (especially Washington) can continue rising up. Meanwhile, our bias for the ACC continues, as we may be the only people on the planet still excited to play Miami and FSU (or, for that matter, Clemson). But hey, we all have our vices.

    Coming soon, the conference-by-conference breakdowns, starting with, as usual, the Atlantic Coast Conference. See you then.

    Chris Peterson Reminds You Who’s Boss

    Many blogs are having fun with this comment by Boise State coach Chris Peterson when asked about continuing the Boise State-Idaho game after this year:

    Why would we (go to Moscow)? I don’t think our fans even like to go up there. Most of Idaho’s fans are in Boise anyway.

     I took a different view of this. What if Paul Johnson made the following remark to the AJC?

    Why would we go to Athens? I don’t think our fans even like to go up there. Most of Georgia’s fans are in Atlanta anyway.

    Can you imagine the furor over that? I mean, there may be a similar furor in Idaho anyway, but still.

    That said, it’s not quite similar – the distance from Boise to Moscow is around 300 miles through hilly terrain that, according to Google maps, would take around 6 hours to traverse. Meanwhile, if traffic is good, it takes about 45 minutes to an hour to get to Athens.