Predictions here! Get your predictions here!

Before I do my usual thing, let me just say that for starters, this is every bowl eligible team. Keep in mind that there will be 2 or 3 new games next year. (Though with some of the matchups that are currently scheduled, and the current state of the economy, I think a few games may fold after this year.) When I started doing this shindig back in 1999, there were “only” 23 games. Now there are 34, which well over half the teams in Division I-A today, and right now I see only 68 teams getting eligible. Think about that for a second. While, yes, I don’t slavishly predict the record of every 3-5 MAC team to see if they’ll make it (which I do for the Big Six teams) things could break such that there are 70 teams or just as easily break such that there are 65 teams. I haven’t seen anything about what could happen if we don’t get to 68 this. Would the NCAA let 5-7 teams compete? I don’t know.

Anyway, let’s hit the major talking points.

BCS

• The title game still looks to be Florida/Alabama versus Texas. With Florida’s stomping of Georgia on Saturday, it looks like they may have an edge over Alabama once again.
• I’m slotting Alabama to the Sugar, and while I’m sure the Sugar will be glad to have them, they did go there last year and the BCS selection rules do allow for such situations.
• I still have Iowa winning the Big Ten and Penn State getting an at-large bid. If Iowa does lose, that raises some interesting questions about the Big Ten’s ability to field two teams.
• Despite the loss Saturday, USC will be favored in all their remaining games and should win out. Since they didn’t even fall out of the top 14 with their second loss, they’ll probably get into the Fiesta. Some folks I know believe Notre Dame may give the Fiesta pause if they’re eligible, though I doubt the ability of ND’s remaining schedule to catapult them far enough up the standings.
• Right now, I only have one of TCU and Boise getting into the BCS. I think the only way both getting will happen is if one or two more undefeated teams lose. The only way both can ensure qualification is to finish at #3 and #4 in the final standings.
• Though it pains to do so, I still put GT in the Orange. I am still extremely worried about picking us to win anything, of course.

ACC

• With Virginia Tech’s loss last Thursday, any chance the ACC had of being a two-bid league were shot. The win does greatly help UNC’s ability to get bowl eligible, though.
• Overall, I see 7 of the ACC’s 12 teams getting eligible, which is down from last year’s 10. This leaves the league two short, so it will not send a team to the Eaglebank or GMAC Bowls.
• Yes, um, Carolina, that is Duke in a bowl game! Also note FSU getting to the Emerald, provided they can get to 6-6.

Big East

• With an assist from Notre Dame going to the Gator, the Big East will fulfill its obligations.
• I know USF went to the St. Petersburg last year, but I just don’t know where else to put them, and I would think that neither party particularly cares at this point, either.

Big XII

• As per usual, the Big 12 North is a disaster. Kansas State is currently at the top of the table, but I don’t think there’s any way they’ll last there. In fact, I don’t even have them going to a bowl.
• While Missouri is 1-3 in conference, they’ve pretty much played all the teams on their schedule they’re categorically worse than. I expect them to recover to 9-3 overall, losing the tiebreaker to Nebraska.
• From the South, Texas will probably make the national title game, but at this point it doesn’t look good for Oklahoma State to get to a BCS game. The Cotton bowl isn’t a bad consolation prize, though.
• With Texas A&M’s upset of Texas Tech two weeks ago, they’re actually 5-3 and need only to beat Baylor to get to 6-6.

Big Ten

• I swear, Iowa is the worst undefeated team ever. Is there anyone who actually wants them to run the table? As I’ve pointed in the past, we have an irrational hatred of Kirk Ferenetz here, but their current “style” doesn’t help.
• Ohio State is the wild card here, as they have yet to play Penn State and Iowa. I have them beating Iowa but losing to Penn State to slide into that old Big Ten standby, the Capital One Bowl.
• Wisconsin should finish up 10-2 for a trip to Florida as well.
• The rest of the Big Ten is extremely muddy. As awful as Michigan has been lately, they should still get to 6-6, though.

Pac-10

• The King is dead; long live the King! As you no doubt know by now, USC lost! (Again.) With a 2 game lead and 4 games to go, Oregon has the conference pretty much clinched, along with a trip to Pasadena. The last time the USC didn’t go to the Rose Bowl was the 2004-5 season, when they went to the National Title game at the Orange Bowl instead.
• Thanks to the magic of a full round-robin and a late ending conference season, the Pac-10 still has plenty of games to go. That said, with Oregon and USC going to the BCS I only see three other bowl eligible teams: Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State. I just don’t see two games on Stanford’s remaining schedule they should win, and Arizona State will come up just short.

SEC

• Outside of a probable 10-2 LSU, the SEC’s bowl slate (again) looks pretty bleak. For starters, the SEC East looks terrible. With South Carolina’s loss to Tennessee, there is clear second place team anymore to send to the Outback. So be prepared for Lane Kiffin to say something dumb about whichever Big Ten team he faces and then lose by 20.
• With LSU going to the Capital One, the representative for the Cotton is also equally debatable. I know Ole Miss went there last year, but I think the Peach will really want Auburn (travel time from Auburn to Atlanta: about 2 hours).
• Provided they can make it, 6-6 Kentucky and Arkansas should round out the SEC’s field to full strength.

Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: BYU-Boise State. It could happen if Boise doesn’t make the BCS, which would give the WAC 4 bowl eligible teams. Since the Pac-10 won’t send a team to the Poinsettia in all likelihood, this will allow them once again to get one of the best mid-major matchups since the WAC has the backup slot. Personally, I’d prefer Utah-Boise in the Las Vegas Bowl, but I don’t think that’ll happen.

Once again, you’ll find the full set right over here.

Let’s hit the talking points.

BCS

• The title game remains unchanged. Provided they win out, I see Alabama and Texas. If Texas beats Oklahoma State this weekend, then they are pretty much set barring a huge upset.
• It’s extremely likely that Florida losing to Alabama would not drop them out of the top 14, which means the Sugar will snap them up. The Fiesta, however, has a lot more choices to replace Texas. Right now, I like the loser of USC/Oregon game to wind up here, but Oklahoma State could work themselves into this position as well. The Fiesta may also want Penn State, but I think they’ll take a western team.
• With TCU’s resounding win over BYU Saturday, they have passed Boise in the BCS and considering each team’s remaining schedules this is unlikely to change unless TCU loses. Either way, I see the mid-major team going to the Fiesta, though Boise would have a higher chance than TCU at it. Either way, it is likely either the Fiesta or the Sugar, or at least I think so.
• With Miami’s overtime loss to Clemson, GT now controls its own destiny in the ACC. In case you haven’t noticed from my weekly picks, I hate predicting GT to do anything. But since most mainstream projections now also have GT in the Orange I feel a little better. (I’m still nervous about it, though.)
• The Orange has the first at-large selection this year, and if Penn State is available I think they’ll take them. With a decent season (provided they beat Ohio State) and a large fanbase, the temptation for the Orange (near the back of the at-large pack for the past 2 years) to take the best available at-large teams and sticking the Sugar and Fiesta with the remaining two auto-qualifiers (TCU and Cincinnati) would be too great.
• Cincinnati would be stuck in the Sugar if the Fiesta takes TCU. I don’t really have much reason to think that the Fiesta would like Cincy more than TCU.
• Finally, I currently have Iowa in the Rose, provided they win out. I think if Iowa loses any of its remaining games it is unlikely the Big Ten will get two auto-qualifiers, which opens the rest of the BCS up significantly (for teams like, say, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech).

ACC

• Each of the ACC division leaders (GT and Clemson) controls their own destiny at this point.
• After those two, Virginia Tech, and Miami the ACC picture is extremely muddy. Right now I have BC, followed by 3 7-5 teams (Clemson, Wake, and UNC) and that’s it. However, the middle of the pack could break several ways and the ACC could wind up with a few more 6-6 teams, but for now the conference will fall well-short of its 8 non-BCS bowl obligations.

Big 12

• Texas is, of course, the runaway favorite in the conference.
• There were two shocking upsets this weekend in the Big 12: Iowa State’s 9-7 win over Nebraska and Texas A&M’s surprising and thorough demolition of Texas Tech. I still don’t think either of those teams will make bowls, though, while TTU and Nebraska will probably continue as usual.
• It’s still tough to predict Colorado to win any of its remaining games.
• I still see Nebraska winning the Big 12 North, not that it matters.
• Mizzou has gotten off to a terrible conference start, but with all the terrible teams it still has to play I don’t have a hard time getting them 8-4.

Big East

• Pittsburgh its trying as hard as it can to be relevant, but I think Cincinnati is the better team and has better coaching. I see Pitt losing to West Virginia as well.
• Thanks to Notre Dame likely taking their Gator Bowl spot, the Big East can generate an extra at-large team. With the other conference coming up short this year (looking at you, ACC) this is pretty important.
• The extra team out will probably be a 6-6 Connecticut.

Big Ten

• For now, I see Iowa continuing its string of 1-3 point victories no matter the opponent, if for no other reason than it simplifies things.
• Penn State will likely earn a BCS at-large bid provided it wins out. I don’t think any other Big Ten team will be able to do so.
• I actually think Michigan can get up to 9-3, along with Wisconsin.
• I think Northwestern will just barely squeak in at 6-6.

Pac-10

• This week’s Oregon-USC battle is for the conference, pretty much. Right now I have USC winning and Oregon getting an at-large berth. I’m not sure a 2-loss USC could do the same.
• I think Cal is on the road to recovery, and I like Arizona and Oregon State to achieve winning records as well. Arizona State and Washington may just sneak in.
• Without an upset or two the rest of the way, though, I see Stanford falling just short.

SEC

• As is well-documented at this point, Florida and Alabama are on a collision course to the title game. It’d be nice if either actually could score some points, though. Florida has the easier schedule, having already cleared the LSU hurdle Alabama faces this weekend.
• After those three, the SEC picture is extremely muddled. In the end, I have an excess of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, with only Vanderbilt and Miss State failing to reach the mark.

Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Pretty slim pickings this week. I’d say Miami-Notre Dame in the Gator, but that’s pretty obvious, along with Nebraska-Michigan. But hey, while any weekend of college football is exciting, this weekend has the potential for some that could really shake up the bowl landscape. So we’ll see what goes here next week.

Here they are!

See last year’s first post for my general thought process. (The Big Ten writeup rings especially true, even a year later. Well, except the Ohio State part, I guess.) Basically, I sat down after the standing came out and tried to project the record of every remaining BCS conference team. This will hopefully bear fruit in terms of sensible predictions, because at the least it require to look at everyone’s schedule and make some decisions and prevents me from magicking 6-6 teams from thin air. (I had some help with this, as well. Kudos to my brother and a friend of mine for contributing! Y’all know who you are.)

Right now, for BCS purposes I am projecting Alabama and Texas to win out. I also assumed that the ACC 3-way Circle of Death would continue, and that USC would beat Oregon but that Oregon would recover in time for the final BCS standings. A lot of folks think that the Orange and Fiesta will want to foist Boise or TCU upon the Sugar, but I’m not so sure. Especially with the Fiesta and Boise, which as you may recall have a little history now. I also think for a bowl in Arizona Cincinnati and Boise would travel equally well.

Unfortunately, with at-large teams like USC, Florida, Penn State, or Oregon around the chances of the ACC, even with 3 10-win and better teams, will not get multiple BCS bids. In fact, the only way I think this could happen is if someone other than Miami wins the tiebreaker, which frees the Sugar to try to engineer Florida-Miami. Even then, if Miami takes a late loss, it may knock them right out of the top 14, especially considering the remaining schedule.

We are, once again, in a very precarious position with regards to 6+ win at-large teams. The only BCS conference team with a 6-6 or better record that was available was UConn. Even after that, I only had one spare, though I will be completely honest and say I didn’t look at all the MAC teams to see if they could eke out 6-6 or 7-5 records. (Remember, the NCAA requires all 7-5 teams to be picked before 6-6 teams.) With 34 bowls again this year, and more on the way next year (there’s at least 2 new bowls, and maybe another 1 or 2 on the way), I am convinced that this scenario will need to be dealt with next year. On the flip side, if some of these games do badly enough (especially independents that aren’t propped up by ESPN Regional TV so people have something to watch on New Year’s Eve other than old Christmas specials) perhaps some will fold and we’ll get back to maybe 30 bowls or so. (Hah, yeah right.)

Anyway, let’s hit up some Non-Obvious Matchups and call it a day.

• BYU-Washington, Poinsettia Bowl: a.k.a, The Tyrone Willingham Memorial Bowl, as BYU’s controversial win on a last-second field goal in Seattle last was the first nail in Ty’s coffin. Of course, U-Dub is better this year (I’d say they couldn’t have been worse, but Washington State keeps proving that saying wrong.) but may not make a bowl, so I’m crossing my fingers for this one. Note if TCU makes the BCS instead of Boise, BYU probably ends up in Las Vegas. Again.
• Kansas-Georgia, Independence Bowl: aahahahahahahaha. (ahem) I’m sorry, where was I? Oh, right, this is the Disappointing Season Bowl, Part I. Kansas still has to play Nebraska and Mizzou, and after losing to Colorado it’s hard to predict them to win anything. As for UGA, well, I think it’s pretty self-explanatory.
• Air Force-Houston, Armed Forces Bowl: isn’t it at least a tinge ironic that the Air Force Academy almost never throws the ball and the school featuring the land-based mammal as a mascot runs the Air Raid offense? Well, is it at least Alanis-level irony? No? Oh.
• LSU-Michigan, Capital One Bowl: a.k.a, the Les Miles Bowl. Though maybe Michigan fans are over it now?
• Oklahoma-Ohio State, Alamo Bowl: a.k.a, the Disappointing Season Bowl, Part II. Both these teams aimed for the national title and ended up in San Antonio.

With 10 games in two days out of the way, it’s time go down the home stretch to the national title game. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

Friday (note that these are all after the fact reflections, since I was lazy/busy)

• Texas Tech vs. Mississippi, Cotton Bowl (@Dallas, TX; 2:00 PM, FOX): How the hell did Texas Tech get owned in this game? It makes no sense. I don’t even want to think about it.
• East Carolina vs. Kentucky, Liberty Bowl (@Memphis, TN; 5:00 PM, ESPN): I’m pretty much on a 3 day losing streak at this point. The last predictions I got right was Kansas over Minnesota, and I missed everything else on the 31st. Ugh.
• Alabama vs. Utah, Sugar Bowl (@New Orleans, LA; 8:00 PM, FOX): Watching this right now. Utah jumped out to a big lead but Bama just pulled within a score. I think Bama can still come back and run away with this, but going in I thought it would be pretty close. So yeah. I wouldn’t be upset to be wrong about this one, that’s for sure.

Saturday

• Buffalo vs. Connecticut, International Bowl (@Toronto, ON, CA; 12:00 PM, ESPN2): Hey, it’s the International Bowl! Maybe I’ll actually get to see it this year (since I missed it previously due to traveling). UConn should win this, but the way things are going for me right now, who knows?

Monday

• Texas vs. Ohio State, Fiesta Bowl (@Glendale, AZ; 8:00 PM, FOX): Probably the best of the remaining bowls, this should provide an interesting game between two teams who did not have their seasons go quite the way they wanted. I really think Texas is more talented than OSU, but it will probably really hinge on how they’ve handled the let down of not being in the title game.

Tuesday

• Ball State vs. Tulsa, GMAC Bowl (@Mobile, AL; 8:00 PM, ESPN): It’s the Disappointment Bowl! Ball State was undefated, and then lost in their conference championship game. Tulsa was also undefeated until they played Arkansas late in the year, and then should’ve beaten a very moribund East Carolina in the C-USA title game. In other words, both these teams probably expected more. I also think Tulsa is light years more talented than Ball State and should win this one by a couple of scores.

Next up, national title game predictions!

And here’s the last set of trying to call who goes where instead of who wins. Once everything is set, then the predicting begins!

Anyway, here’s some closing thoughts:

• It’s shaping up to be a Wake Forest-Navy rematch up in DC, though this could be avoided if the Emerald takes Wake.
• I imagine the BCS has no good solution for the Cincinnati/Utah situation. Everyone seems to assume that Cincy will fall to the Orange and I’m going along with that, but as I’ve said before in the past the last bowl on the pecking the order (in this case, the Orange) gets stuck with the mid-major. Also, the Sugar featured a mid-major team last year. On the flip side, the Fiesta is probably salivating at the thought of a Texas-Ohio State matchup, which is every bit as high profile as the Rose and the title game itself.
• I’m still guessing LSU is Tech’s probably opponent.
• Disappointment Bowl: the projected GMAC Bowl is a study in having a great season that just falls short.
• Central vs. Western: In other MAC news, Central and Western Michigan both have winning records but the MAC only has 3 bids, and with the title game participants locked in it’s going to be interesting to see who gets the Motor City bid if Ball State goes to Mobile. There’s also the question of their opponent. I thought it’d be Notre Dame but the online rumor mills point to ND going to Texas or Louisiana, so I’m sliding NC State in there.
• There was apparently a big push there year to keep bowls from announcing early. While I generally commend this trend, it does make it more frustrating to me because I basically had to do a Google news search on all the bowls a few times this week to check for news. (I used to use the ESPN news wire for this, but it’s not working as well this year.)
• In reality, the Gators may jump OU because they a) beat the top ranked team and b) as a move by the human polls to ensure the UF-OU matchup in the title game. People prattle on about the computer polls but the reality of the situation is that with 2/3rds of the vote, the human polls exact a very large amount of control over who gets in to the title game.

Anyway, Sunday’s the big day, and I’ll have the final set of matchups uploaded tomorrow night.