This is it. I’m going and writing this up now. We’ll see what’s still true later today.

I have come up eight possible scenarios based on the outcome of the BCS today. Basically, these are the three most important variables:

• Whether Oklahoma State moves ahead of Alabama to #2 in the BCS
• Whether Michigan moves from #16 to #14 or better in the BCS
• Whether TCU moves from #18 to #16 or better in the BCS

This means that it is currently very difficult to nail down exactly what will happen with the Big Ten, Big 12, or Mountain West. (The SEC is unaffected because Alabama will go to a BCS game if it falls out of the top two.)

For each set of scenarios, there are constants. You can see those constants here. Also common in most of these scenarios is that I do not think Boise State will get a BCS at-large bid. If TCU does not make it, then I think that’s that for the mid-majors this year – unless Michigan also does not make it, thus limiting the available/attractive at-large bids.

Which do I think is most likely? What I call “Scenario 1”: a LSU-Alabama rematch with Michigan in and TCU out. This is currently what is available on the main page. Each scenario is also available in its entirety:

• LSU vs. Alabama, Michigan in, TCU out
• LSU vs. Alabama, Michigan in, TCU in
• LSU vs. Alabama, Michigan out, TCU in
• LSU vs. Alabama, Michigan out, TCU out
• LSU vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan in, TCU out
• LSU vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan in, TCU in
• LSU vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan out, TCU in
• LSU vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan out, TCU out

Why do I think the first is the most likely? I don’t think enough voters will suddenly decide to put Oklahoma State ahead of Alabama and Stanford to pass them in the standings. Also, while many thought the Cowboys would pass Alabama in all the computers, the first poll out of the gate is the Sagarin ratings, which puts Alabama 2nd and Oklahoma State 3rd. While the highest and lowest positions for each team are thrown out, if any of the other five polls break that way then we will not have agreement among them. Also, all these teams in front of Michigan lost yesterday: Virginia Tech, Houston, Oklahoma, and Michigan State. The last two, specifically, are likely to fall behind Michigan in the new poll. The questions is: will they also fall behind TCU? The closest loss in the rankings to TCU was Georgia, which will fall behind them, but around them in the rankings are Baylor (which just beat Texas) and Clemson (which just demolished Virginia Tech). Also, I think many of the newly-minted two-loss teams today could settle in ahead of TCU. So in other words, it doesn’t look good for the Horned Frogs. And given the general leanings of the folks who control the BCS, I don’t think they’ll give out a bone to Boise State, even though they could be as high as 5th in the new poll.

I’ll start with the conferences that are well-defined in my template. Again, regardless of what happens at the top of the polls, that will likely not have any effect on these, and are constant across all scenarios.

ACC
With Clemson back to its old ways in the ACC title game, this makes the Chick-fil-a a very good bet to grab Virginia Tech, which means the FSU-Notre Dame matchup is back in play for the Champs. There’s still some room for FSU to go to Atlanta, but I don’t think VPI will fall past the Champs even though they got blown out. The rest of the conference looks pretty straightforward: Tech to the Sun, NC State to the Belk, Virginia to the Music City, Wake Forest to the Independence, and North Carolina to the Military.

Big East
The Champs Sports Bowl will almost certainly use its option to take Notre Dame this year. After that, only news searches revealed my least favorite bowl scenario is going to happen. Read the article if you want the gory details. The upshot is that other online search put Louisville as a solid lock of the Belk, Rutgers in the Pinstripe, and Pitt to the Compass, which leaves Cincy to the Liberty.

Conference USA
Houston losing was really bad for the conference. Due to the wacky Big East/SEC Liberty Bowl thing it also looks like Southern Miss won’t be going there. While there supposedly is an “order” for the C-USA bowls that I found today, it still doesn’t make much sense to me. Either way, they will fall a team short, most likely in the New Orleans Bowl. I put Southern Miss in the Compass Bowl and Houston in the TicketCity. I put SMU in the other Dallas bowl game, Marshall in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, and shipped Tulsa out to Hawaii. But of all my picks, short of guessing at-large teams, I generally always feel the least confident about C-USA. Well, and the Big East.

Mid-American
With their win in the title game, NIU should be bound for the godaddy.com Bowl in Mobile. I saw a rumor say that Western Michigan would get the nod for Pizza Bowl, so I put conference runner-up Ohio out in Boise, with Toledo and Ball State waiting nervously by the phone.

Pacific-12
I think Stanford is a lock for a BCS at-large berth, which leaves the Pac-12 short a team or two, even with UCLA’s waiver. As the best remaining team on the board at this point, I put Washington in the Alamo and Cal in the Holiday. Utah is the only other team with a winning record, so I stuck them in the Sun, and figured that left Arizona State for the Las Vegas Bowl. This leaves, of course, UCLA, which a trip to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

Southeastern
Since LSU and Alabama will both be in the BCS in any scenario, we can go ahead and figure the rest of the BCS. I like Arkansas to get the nod for the Capital One, which also lets the SEC bowls switch things up. Georgia and South Carolina, then will end up in the Outback and Cotton bowls, and maybe even in that order. Auburn is pretty solidly next on the plate, and with the worry of an Auburn-Clemson rematch gone, they’ll get a trip to Atlanta. I think the Gator, regardless of scenario, will try to set up the Urban Meyer thing, so they’ll probably take Florida. At this point, what’s left is Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. I like both to stay home, relatively speaking, with Vandy going to the Music City and Miss State to the de facto capital of Mississippi, Memphis.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State, Florida International, and UL-Lafayette are all set. It’s not looking good for Western Kentucky to get their first every bowl bid, though.

Western
Hawaii lost to BYU, so unlike UCLA, they will not be bowling at 6-7. Utah State and Louisiana Tech are set with bids already. There are some rumblings Nevada may work out an arrangement to play closer to home (say, the Fight Hunger), but without anything more concrete I’m sticking with putting them in the Hawaii Bowl.

Okay, cool, so what about the conferences that are affected by the BCS? Well, let’s start with the Big 12.

Big 12
Whether Oklahoma State gets into the title game doesn’t matter here, as they will be in the BCS either way. The question is whether Kansas State will get an at-large berth. Oklahoma, Houston, and Virginia Tech all lost in front of them and will probably fall behind K-State, which may make them an attractive candidate generally for lack of better options. The only team that threatens K-State in this regard is Boise State. I am perhaps not giving Boise enough credit for the BCS folks here, but I think the Wildcats would be an attractive option for the Fiesta or Sugar, while Boise is probably more attractive to the Fiesta. So in all scenarios where either Michigan or TCU do not make it, or both, I have Kansas State in over Boise. The BCS bowl committees may surprise me, though! It’s happened before.

Outside of that, I think Oklahoma is a pretty safe bet for the Cotton in any scenario where K-State is in the BCS, but if K-State is not in the BCS I think they are bound for Arlington. From there, things pretty much just go in this order for me: Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Iowa State. Just push them up or down a slot depending on who gets into the BCS, basically.

Big Ten
Wisconsin is in and Michigan State is out, in all scenarios. The question is Michigan. If Michigan is in, and I think they will be, I think the Capital One jumps at the chance to grab Nebraska for the second time ever and the first since 1990. If Michigan is not in the BCS, however, then I think they will go to the Capital One. Either way, I think Michigan State is a good bet for the Outback Bowl, followed by Iowa if Michigan is in or Nebraska if Michigan is out. (If Michigan is out, some of my scenarios have Texas-Nebraska in the Insight Bowl. That’d be a fun one, I’d wager, but probably not likely.) I have Ohio State in the Gator regardless of scenario as well.

Then things start to get interesting. The Big Ten has too many teams for its bids, the questions is if this will be one or two extra teams. If Michigan is in, I think that will put Penn State in the Car Care Bowl, Purdue in the TicketCity, and Northwester in the Pizza with Illinois waiting anxiously. If Michigan is out, then I like Iowa to the Car Care, Penn State to the TicketCity, and Purdue in the Pizza, with Northwestern and Illinois waiting.

Mountain West
If Boise is not in, then all indications are they will go to the Las Vegas Bowl. If TCU is not in then they will go to the Poinsettia. The only way TCU goes to the Vegas, it appears, is if Boise gets into the BCS. If TCU is in the BCS, then it looks like (as of the wee hours of Sunday) that the Poinsettia will not take the hometown San Diego State Aztecs and instead take Wyoming. All scenarios put Air Force in the Independence again, while Wyoming goes to the New Mexico if they’re still available, and San Diego State if they’re not. With the former scenario, SDSU will need an at-large berth.

The leftovers
In no scenario do I have Ball State or Western Kentucky making a bowl game. (Sorry Hilltoppers.) Basically, all these scenarios have an affect on how many teams need at-large bids. In cases where the Big 12 gets two teams in, I have Temple in the Military Bowl and Iowa State if not. I also have Illinois going out west to the Fight Hunger Bowl in all scenarios. That leaves the New Orleans Bowl and New Mexico Bowl needing teams, which depends heavily on if Boise/TCU and/or Michigan got BCS bids. If both do, then I have Toledo and Temple in those games. If the former but not the latter then I have Northwestern and Temple, with Toledo out completely. If the Michigan gets in and Boise/TCU do not, then  I have Toledo and San Diego State occupying those slots. If neither get in, then I have Northwestern and Toledo in those slots.

Note that when it comes to the at-larges, the situation tends to be extremely fluid and there can also be horsetrading (like I alluded to with Nevada).

I will update all 8 scenarios throughout the day as the bids come in, so stay tuned. If you really care about how I determine whether I predicted the matchups correctly, I will probably go with the scenario that most closely matches out the BCS actually turns out. I’ll be keeping track of the final destinations here in a separate directory, even.

Chaos reigned supreme last weekend. Now we stare down the barrel as someone will most likely play someone they already played in the BCS Championship Game. Remember folks, every game counts, unless it doesn’t.

I’m writing this as I go. Since this is an electronic document I could, of course, actually just move things around to their customary order first, but that would be too easy. So let’s start off with the little guys. The final predictions will be up at their usual place.

Mid-majors
The first announcements of the year that I saw where that UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State have accepted bids to the New Orleans and godaddy.com bowls, respectively. I also have FIU and Western Kentucky qualifying as well.

BYU also formally accepted its bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.

Hawaii could’ve gained eligibility but only managed to put up 21 points against one of the worse defenses in college football. Since they play 13 games, they must have a winning record, and so at 5-6 now they will need to beat Tulane (extremely doable) and BYU. While they can beat BYU, I don’t think they will. Elsewhere in the WAC, Nevada lost a pivotal home matchup to Louisiana Tech, but that may not really matter that much as the WAC moves teams around based on what they think will work best for their games. Therefore, I still sent Nevada to the poinsettia, LaTech to Boise, and 6-6 Utah State to Hawaii.

In the MAC, I don’t see Kent State or Eastern Michigan winning their final games to get eligible. Ohio has already clinched the MAC East, and I think they will go ahead and play Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. The MAC champion goes to the godaddy.com bowl, but I always figure it’s best for a MAC team to actually play in the Midwest. Nonetheless, I’m guessing Ohio will go down to Mobile, NIU will go to Detroit, and I’ll pick Toledo to go out to Boise. That leaves Temple, Ball State, and Western Michigan as eagerly anticipating at-large bids elsewhere, which should materialize.

The Mountain West is going about how one would expect now that Boise is not going to the BCS. TCU will win the conference even if they sleepwalk through the UNLV game and get themselves an invite to Vegas. Boise will be a slam dunk for the Poinsettia unless an utter collapse elsewhere in the BCS occurs and they get invited as an at-large. Then it comes down to the Independence Bowl, which will likely have to choose between Wyoming and San Diego State. (Air Force should get eligible, but they do need to beat Colorado State Saturday since they played 2 DI-AA teams this year.) I’m just going to go in standings order for now (Wyoming to Independence, SDSU to New Mexico), leaving Air Force as a potential at-large for later.
Since it’s next on my list, the other two service academies will not be bowling this year after Navy’s loss to San Jose State. Notre Dame will be bowling somewhere, and I think it’s likely that somewhere will be the Champs Sports Bowl (otherwise, it will be the Pinstripe Bowl).

In Conference USA, East Carolina and Marshall will play this weekend for a bowl bid, and I like ECU in that game. Southern Mississippi, despite an inexplicable loss to UAB, should clinch the division. Houston will win the conference, of course, and should be in line for a BCS bowl bid, but they will need to beat Tulsa Saturday and USM next week to clinch it for sure. I have UTEP beating UCF Saturday to get to 6-6, giving us 6 total C-USA teams. I like USM to the Liberty bowl, but after that it’s all guesswork. C-USA does not explicitly order their bids, so I look at the payouts, with the TicketCity being the highest, followed by the Hawaii Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl. The New Orleans and Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl sit at the bottom. I’ll go ahead and send Tulsa to the TicketCity and SMU to the hometown Armed Forces (literally, as it’s at their home stadium). That leaves us 2 6-6 teams for 3 bowls. Let’s pencil in ECU to go to Hawaii and UTEP to St. Petersburg, leaving us needing another team in New Orleans.

BCS
A LSU-Alabama rematch seems nearly inevitable at this point, unless all hell breaks even more loose this weekend. I highly dislike the idea of the rematch, after all, the college football is regular seasons is so short it’s not really interesting for teams to play each other twice. This year, more than ever, shows how difficult it is to resolve differences between teams that play vastly different schedules over only 12 games, and why we really need a playoff.

In the Rose, I’ve got ahead and put in Wisconsin and Oregon, though both will need to play conference championship games this year. For the other autobids, I’ve put in Oklahoma State to the Fiesta and Virginia Tech to the Orange.

The Sugar gets the first at-large pick because it lost its autobid champion to the national title game. This is where it gets tough, though. Unless some other weird stuff happens, the SEC can’t get a third team into the BCS, which limits the sort of teams that the Sugar typically picks. I will go ahead and put in Kansas State there, since Oklahoma I have Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State this weekend. (Note that if Bedlam goes the other way around, both teams could still get into the BCS.) Now the Fiesta has a difficult choice, but I think the area’s NFL fans will flock to see Andrew Luck, so I will put Stanford in there. Now we still have to put whoever the heck is going twin the Big East as well as Houston somewhere. Due to proximity, I figure the Sugar will fall on that sword and take the Cougars. I have the Big East finishing in a 4-way tie for first, so I’m taking West Virginia out of that group.

ACC
Even with their inexplicable loss to NC State blowing their BCS hopes, Clemson will likely still be attractive enough for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Following that, there are 4 ACC teams that will finish 5-3 (most likely): Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. Of this group, FSU is probably the most attractive for the Champs Sports at the ACC #3 slot. Also, if they take Notre Dame is creates a huge “name” matchup. ACC #4 is the Sun Bowl and I think it’s likely GT will end up there. The Belk Bowl will probably use its option to take a 4-4 NC State team over UVA and Wake, but the Music City will probably have no issues with taking UVA. (This is where I had Miami going previously, but with their announcement that they won’t accept a bowl bid it’s sort of a moot point now.) With Carolina at 3-5, this means Wake can’t fall any farther than the Independence Bowl, with the Tar Heels then ending up in DC for the Military Bowl.

Big 12
If Oklahoma doesn’t make a BCS game, they will be a very obvious candidate for the Cotton Bowl. At this point, the Alamo will probably have no choice but to take Baylor. This leaves the rest of the 7-5-/6-6 Big 12 misfits to fight over the remaining bids. I’ll go ahead and put Texas in the Insight Bowl and Missouri in the Holiday, leaving TAMU to the Car Care Bowl (of Texas) and Iowa State to the Pinstripe.

Big East
Again: I really hate picking the Big East. As I said above, I have 4 teams finishing with a 5-2 conference record currently. Since the Champs will probably take Notre Dame, that leaves the next selection to the Belk Bowl, where I guess Cincy has the best chance of going except that they already played NC State this year, so I’ll switch that to Louisville instead. Rutgers likes to think of themselves as “New York City’s college football team” so I’ll send them to the Pinstripe. I’ll pencil Cincy in for the Compass Bowl and so that leaves only Pitt for the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s.

Big Ten
I’m not sure the Big Ten will get two teams into the BCS this year. If they do, it will be Michigan. Since Michigan State will suffer a third loss in the Big Ten title game they won’t likely be eligible, which means Michigan could sneak into the top 14. If they don’t, the Capital One Bowl is good consolation prize, especially after the past few years. Fret not, Sparty supporters, as I just have them landing softly in the Outback Bowl. From there, I’m sure the Insight Bowl would love to match Nebraska back up with Texas, and given the Gator Bowl’s scruples I doubt they would hesitate to take Penn State. Iowa’s large traveling fanbase should be a slam dunk for the Car Care Bowl (of Texas!). Form there, there’s a bevy of unattractive options at 6-6 and 7-5, such as Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois. The only two bowls left are the TicketCity Bowl and Little Ceasar’s Pizza Bowl, so I’ll go ahead and take the biggest “names” for those two, with the Buckeyes going to Dallas and Illinois to Detroit, leaving Purdue and Northwestern to fend for themselves.

Pac-12
With Oregon and Stanford in the BCS and USC ineligible, the picture looks pretty bleak if you’re a bowl affiliated with the Pac-12. I actually have Utah winning the Pac-12 South and getting to an 8-4 record, so you know what, I’ll go ahead and put them in the Alamo. The Holiday is next up. I want to put Washington there but they went to San Diego last year. UCLA is also 5-4 in conference but they’re also actually awful and may fire their coach after the season. I’ll go ahead and put them there though and send Washington El Paso. That leaves me 6-6 Arizona State and Cal, so I’ll send the Sun Devils to Vegas and let the Bears stay in their temporary home for the Fight Hunger Bowl.

SEC
Arkansas is the jewel of the remaining SEC teams and will certainly end up in the Capital One Bowl. Of course, that means we have to figure out someone else to send to the Cotton Bowl. That’ll be between Georgia and South Carolina most likely, so I’ll put UGA in the Outback and send the Gamecocks to Dallas. Auburn’s the only team left at this point with a winning record, so I’ll set up Tigers-Tigers in the Chick-fil-a. The Gator is the next up, and well, it’s so easy to put the Gators there. (Almost… too easy.)  I’ll go ahead and put the Vols in the Music City, leaving us 2 teams and bowls! Memphis is basically the capital of Mississippi anyway, so that makes Miss State a natural fit for the Liberty and relegates Vandy to the Compass.

At-large Resolution
At this point, I still need four teams for the New Mexico, New Orleans, Military, and Fight Hunger Bowls. Northwestern and Purdue will probably go somewhere, so I’ll put Northwestern in the Military and Purdue in the Fight Hunger. I figure 8-4 Temple will get a bid somewhere, so let’s go with the New Orleans Bowl. That leaves us the New Mexico bowl… this is a guess, but I’ll go ahead and put 8-4 FIU there.

When will I ever learn that “it’ll probably be easier this week” is pretty much a surefire way to make sure that isn’t the case?

Let’s get down to business and see why. You can follow along with the picks in their usual place.

BCS
The BCS was the single hardest thing to pick this week. With the chaos in the Big Ten, figuring out the last team into the BCS picture was extremely difficult. Here’s why.

Currently, I still have LSU and Oklahoma State running the table. I am not entirely convinced about the latter but trying to figure out which 1-loss team is most worthy, or if Boise State is, is even more difficult to figure out. (If Stanford beats Oregon this weekend, that will make my job easier.) I immediately slot Alabama into LSU’s vacated Sugar Bowl spot but even figuring out who will replace Oklahoma State in the Fiesta is difficult. I have the following automatic bids: LSU (BCS #1), Oklahoma State (BCS #2), Boise State (MWC champion ranked in top 12), Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Wisconsin (Big Ten champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Cincinnati (Big East champ). This accounts for 7 of the 10 available BCS bids. Currently, I only have 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams (not counting Houston), and the only two I didn’t mention above are Alabama and Stanford. Due to the Andrew Luck effect, I assume Stanford will be a desirable at-large team and thus will get Oklahoma State’s Fiesta Bowl bid.

Now, at this point the only remaining bids are the 3 at-large bids in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. The selections go in that order. There are two remaining automatic qualifiers: Boise State and Cincinnati. This means that there will be a 2-loss team somewhere in the BCS. But who? This could affect who the bowl picks. And this is where the Big Ten shenanigans come in.

With Nebraska’s shocking upset to Northwestern, this means there will be no Big Ten team with less than two losses at the end of the year (I think it’s safe to assume Penn State will lose one of their remaining games (I have them losing two more, actually)). This also means Nebraska has two conference losses. Michigan State only has one conference loss, and I don’t think they will lose again this year. So they will win the Legends division, where I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That would give Michigan State three losses. Whereas Nebraska – having continued winning through the end of the season – should be able to rise back up into the top 14 of the BCS.

So, yeah, it’s probably unfair, but them’s the breaks. Thanks to BCS hot-potato and backroom dealing, I went ahead and figured the Fiesta would suck it up and take Boise, setting up a game that sounds epic, at least in name: Alabama versus Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl. (I wasn’t surprised to find the two schools had met in the Sugar Bowl before – in 1967. Unfortunately, it apparently wasn’t much of a classic as the Tide won 34-7.)

In any BCS scenario, I figure the odds of the Orange avoiding an ACC-Big East matchup are slim.

ACC
The only ACC team that can possibly have only 1-loss is the ACC champ. I currently have this team as Clemson.

Thanks to unexpectedly strong seasons from Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia the ACC should fill out its primary bowl obligations this year and then some. The first slots after the BCS are easy: Virginia Tech to the Chick-fil-a and Florida State to the Champs Sports bowl (setting up a good “name” matchup if the Champs uses their option to select Notre Dame). This brings us to the Sun Bowl. According to the ACC selection rules, the Sun can choose from the following: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, and Miami. Miami went to the Sun Bowl last year so I figure they’re out. I don’t Virginia or Wake are known for traveling terribly well, and so I’ve put GT there. This allows the rest of the dominoes to fall into place. I’ve put NC State into the Belk Bowl (formerly the Car Care Bowl), followed by Miami to the Music City and Virginia to the Independence. Wake Forest finally gets picked for the Military Bowl, mostly because ACC rules prevent a 3-5 UNC from being picked above them. This allows North Carolina to be shipped out to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl in San Fransisco, fulfilling the ACC option as a backup for the Pac-12 or Army.

Big East
If it seems like the Big East selections were drawn out of a hat, well, they very well could have been. For the sake of my sanity, I picked Cincy to run the table followed by Louisville, WVU, and Pitt. Oy. They will have an extra team, though, since I have Syracuse getting 6-6, so I put them in the Military Bowl slot the Big 12 won’t come anywhere close to filling.

Big 12
The Big 12 is pretty much the two Oklahoma schools and everyone else. Texas seems to have gotten its act together so I slotted them into the Cotton. Everything else straightforward, though Baylor kind of gets the shaft. If Iowa State or Texas Tech and manage to win another game that would really be a boon for the conference but considering their schedules I don’t see it happening.

Big Ten
The Big Ten is a mess right now. I talked about the Nebraska thing above, and that was mostly just me going “well, someone has to have a 2-bid conference that probably doesn’t deserve it” and so I figured a 2-loss team from the Big Ten would fit the bill. Michigan State will probably still land in the Capital One Bowl, so that’s not a huge deal. I have both Michigan and Penn State going 9-3, with the Outback bid going to the Fightin’ Paternos and shipping Michigan off to Arizona. The rest of the slate is pretty “meh” and straightforward, though even after four weeks it still feels weird projecting Ohio State into second-tier bowl games.

Pac-12
Boy does this conference miss USC being eligible or what? Speaking of crazy upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska was shocking, yes, but not Earth-shaking (well, metaphorically considering recent events in Oklahoma). UCLA over Arizona State, though? Now there’s an upset. Consider this: the team that got pantsed by Arizona only a few Thursdays ago and had all but officially announced they’d fired the head coach is now in a 3-way tie for the Pac-12 South lead. Now, I figure Arizona State will still win the division in the end, but still. Also, don’t look but Utah should get to 6-6 pretty easily over the next few weeks, if not 7-5. I tried to resist it, but it was just too easy match them against TCU in the Las Vegas Bowl if for no other reason than to get Utah partisans to say, “wait, we joined a BCS conference and we still ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl… and playing one of our former MWC rivals?” I had some hesitation though because that meant Cal ended up in the Fights Hunger Bowl, which is being played in the stadium that’s serving as their home field this year. Well, if nothing else I guess they’ll be used to it.

SEC
SEC partisans will no doubt howl about the 2-team limit for BCS participation, because if Arkansas’s only losses are to LSU and Alabama then they should easily stay in the BCS top 14. Nonetheless, the BCS slate was pretty straightforward, though I am hoping I’m wrong and Vandy gets up to 6-6.

Everyone else
The Sun Belt and MAC will benefit, as usual, from having surplus eligible teams. I still have Western Kentucky on track to make their first ever bowl game. Overall, though, there’s nothing Earthshattering going on here other than an undefeated Houston being stuck in the Liberty Bowl, but at least that makes it a good bet for Conference USA to make it two straight in the game. This week not having enough teams does not appear to be a concern, and from what I remember while doing the predictions, it appears we’ll be okay this year. (Though honestly one of my favorite bowl system doomsday scenarios that no one talks about is the specter of a team with a losing record making it into a bowl game.)

Anyway, next week probably be just as difficult and confusing, though which way it ultimately goes may be decided just up the road from me here in California. Until then…

Let’s get the link out of the way.

I feel like I’m close to really being able to do an in-depth analysis, though I think we won’t really be able to have a real idea of what things will look like until Oregon and Stanford play. While this weekend’s Alabama-LSU tilt is huge for the national title game, the loser will likely still get into a BCS bowl as long as they don’t lose again. I think Oregon will beat Stanford, which leaves me in a bad position because I also think Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State. For the sake of clarity right now, I’m not going with the latter prediction to avoid a big mess, pretty much.

Elsewhere in the BCS, I’m not really sure to do after I slot the Alabama-LSU loser into the Sugar Bowl. I have Wisconsin, Oregon, Clemson, and West Virginia as conference champs, and Boise should qualify for an at-large. So that leaves us with two more at-large slots. I went with Stanford and Oklahoma. I couldn’t figure out any other better 1-loss team to put into the BCS, pretty much. Even a 1-loss Stanford feels like a reach to me, but Andrew Luck alone may get them into the BCS, in the sense that NFL fans my flock to see the future #1 draft pick.

Quick conference breakdowns:

• ACC: As ecstatic as I was about our victory Saturday, I’m not sure how much it will help our bowl positioning unless we can beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia. I also ended up in the awkward positioning of sending Miami back to the Sun Bowl, which I kind of doubt will happen again. I have Clemson losing again, but to South Carolina.
• Big 12: I still think that Bedlam will probably only act as a NCG stepping stone for Oklahoma State, provided they don’t lose beforehand. I don’t have Mizzou or Texas Tech getting eligible, even with the former delivering a surprise upset this week, and with the latter’s surprise upset being a good reason why they might not make 6-6.
• Big East: I… guess West Virginia’s going to win this conference? Who the heck knows. 
• Big Ten: Michigan suddenly sits pretty at the top of the Big Ten heap, with Michigan State unable to follow up on their Wisconsin win. Wisconsin also suffered a surprising loss to Ohio State, but I still have them winning the Leaders division because Penn State can’t really be for real, can they?
• Pac-12: I still have Oregon beating Stanford. Meanwhile, I think Utah will rally over the back half of their schedule because now they get to play the Colorados and UCLAs of the world. They may even get to 8-4. Either way, with USC not eligible and Cal barely getting in at 6-6, the Pac-12 will come nowhere close to fulfilling its obligations.
• SEC: The SEC elite this year (Alabama and LSU) will almost certainly make BCS bowls as long as neither loses more than once. Unlike in past years, though, the depth of the conference is not that great. Ole Miss and Kentucky are just outright terrible. I have Miss State and Tennessee limping at 6-6. I also have Vandy going 6-6 but for them that’s a pretty good year. The East is down to Georgia and South Carolina, and I think the latter could still lose again in SEC play. I swapped South Carolina and Arkansas in their bowl slots because I had Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and they already played Arkansas this year – in Dallas, no less. (The Cotton prefers teams from the SEC West, but Auburn may be the only other team in the division that has a winning record.) 
• Independents: I have the Champs Sports Bowl exercising its Notre Dame pick this year, otherwise the Domers will probably fall back to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City. BYU is already eligible and has an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. I don’t think either of the academies will qualify this year. Navy already has 6 losses and according to some sites I’ve seen this already discounts them because the Army game is too late on the calendar. And I’m not sure where they Army team is going to get 3 wins from.
• Mid-majors: The Sun Belt and MAC benefit hugely once again from Big 6 conferences unable to use all their bids. I have 4 eligible Sun Belt teams, including Western Kentucky making its first ever bowl game. The WAC will probably only have 3 eligible teams, one of them being Hawaii. The MAC should produce 6 eligible teams, providing plenty of backup. Hard part is that many of the bowls missing teams are out west, which makes it difficult to say “oh yeah, that’s close, maybe they’ll go there”. Boise will make the BCS provided they don’t lose at some point, and the rest of the Mountain West should fulfill its obligations as teams like Air Force and San Diego State should get their seasons together. And finally, the C-USA title game may be pretty good this year, as Southern Miss is on a collision course for only 1 loss going into the game with Houston. Case Keenum may still be too much for the Golden Eagles, though. Houston almost certainly can’t get into the BCS (due to their schedule) but the C-USA has a good chance of holding onto the Liberty Bowl title, I should think.

All right, that’s that. Hopefully I’ll have more thorough breakdowns next week. Until then.