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Bowl Games 2011: Epilogue

2012-01-10T00:05:00.000-08:00

Wherein this post has had more advance planning than LSU's offense apparently did last night.

The final tally is up over in the usual place. This year I managed to predict 24 games correctly. I honestly didn't think I was doing that well until I looked back over the index. I've been doing this since the 1999 season, and this is the best I've ever done by a pretty decent margin. With 24 games correct and 11 wrong, I had a winning percentage of 68.57%. The last time I broke 60% was in 2006, and before this year my previous best percentage was in 2004, with 64.29%.

So, yeah, go me! Too bad I didn't allocate my confidence points correctly on ESPN, but alas.

As we prepare to enter what will for sure be another turbulent offseason, I have to say this has been one of the strangest seasons I can remember. Unfortunately, this isn't due to anything that happened on the field (2007 still holds that title), but more because it felt like each scandal that broke this year was trying to top the next. First Ohio State surprised us, then Miami shocked us (well, that was more the extent; I doubt anyone was surprised that there was a scandal at Miami), but then Penn State did both and then some.

As per usual, this site will be more dormant over the next eight months, with occasional posts on soccer and baseball. But at some point the dust from various lawsuits will settle and everyone's out-of-conference schedules will be known. Then I will rank them and tell you about them, and then try to get a post up once a week detailing that weekend's games.

So, until then.

Quick addendum: apparently this is my 400th post on this website. Thanks for reading!

Bowl Games 2011: The Last One

2012-01-08T17:31:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9
9:00: Louisiana State vs. Alabama (BCS Championship Game @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Let's get this out of the way: this isn't going to be 9-6 again. I didn't say it was going to be high scoring, mind you, just that someone is probably going to score a touchdown this time around. (Not necessarily an offensive touchdown, though.) Both of these teams are really, really good. But I can't really pick Alabama. For starters, LSU already been them in Tuscaloosa. Secondly, that game came down to special teams, and I think we'll see a repeat of that here, and that really is the Crimson Tide's Achilles' Heel.
Previous meetings: Depending on the site you look at, Alabama either leads the series 45-24-5 or 45-23-5, depending the status of either team in 1895. And of course, neither counts the game they already played this year, so really it's either 45-25-5 or 45-24-5. Anyway, both teams have been playing each other for a long time, though before the standardization of conference scheduling they tended to play off-and-on in blocks, meaning they have only been meeting consecutively since 1964. Alabama was the dominate team in the series before 2000, though, going 42-15-5. LSU is 9-3 since then, though, reflecting the reversal in fortunate for both teams over the past 11 years, including 5 straight LSU wins during the Bama Dark Ages of 2003-2007 (also conveniently bookending seasons in which LSU won national titles). Nick Saban went 4-1 against Alabama during his tenure at LSU, with the only loss coming in 2002.
Last bowl game: LSU is in their 12th straight bowl game. The first game in the streak was a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech in the 2000 Peach Bowl. Last season, they beat Texas A&M 41-24 in the Cotton Bowl. Alabama is appearing in their eighth straight bowl game, the first of which was a 20-16 loss to Minnesota in the 2004 Music City Bowl.
Fun facts: The University of Alabama SGA (Student Government Association) is known as "The Machine" due to its propensity for cranking out Alabama politicians.

Bowl Games 2011: Part 5

2012-01-02T20:20:00.000-08:00

As the "New Year's Day" games wrap up, here's a preview of the other five games before the last one next week.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday, January 3
8:00: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Why is VPI in this game? I'm nominally an ACC partisan and even I'm not sure. At any rate, VPI had no answer for Tajh Boyd, and if they couldn't contain him, it's extremely difficult to see how they'll stop Denard Robinson. That's not to say this'll be a blowout like those two Clemson games, but I just think this'll be a more low scoring contest and that Michigan will make enough plays to win.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: This will be VPI's 19th consecutive bowl game, good for the 3rd longest streak in the country. The streak began in 1993 with a 45-20 win over Indiana in the Independence Bowl. Last year, they got destroyed by Stanford in the Orange Bowl, 40-12. This is Michigan's second straight bowl appearance. Last year, they lost to Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl, 52-14.
Fun facts: I call it "VPI" because the full name of the university is actually "Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University" and that's what old-time residents of the Commonwealth (like my late grandfather) called it. It also provides me a way to be absolutely clear to what "Tech" in the ACC I refer to on this website, which is to say, the one in Georgia. It's also an important reminder why the answer to the trivia question "how many schools in Division I-A football do not have 'university' in their name" is five: the three service academics, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.

Wednesday, January 4
8:00: Clemson vs. West Virginia (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): The winner of this game depends entirely on which Clemson team shows up. Are going to get the offensive juggernaut that went 8-0 and then demolished Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game? Ore the one that went 1-3 with losses to Georgia Tech and NC State, got blown out by their in-state rival, and needed a last-second field goal to beat Wake Forest? I'm going to go with the Tigers, but very, very cautiously.
Previous meetings: Only one, back in the 1988-89 Gator Bowl. Clemson won 27-7.
Last bowl game: This is Clemson's seventh straight bowl game. They lost in last year's Car Care Bowl (now the Belk Bowl) 31-26 to South Florida. WVU is making its 10th straight bowl appearance. The streak started back in 2002 with a loss in what was then the Tire Bowl (then the Car Care Bowl and now the Belk Bowl) to Virginia, 48-22. Last year they lost to NC State in the Champs Sports Bowl 23-7.
Fun facts: Somewhat famously, West Virginia's campus features a personal rapid transit system. It's basically a mini-elevated rail system used to move students around the campus, which is separated into three distinct parts that, due to history and geography, are about two miles apart. In total, the line contains five stations and covers 8.65 miles.

Friday, January 6
8:00: Kansas State vs. Arkansas (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): K-State is 10-2, but those two losses came to a couple of the best passing attacks in the country. Arkansas is also in that category. However, Arkansas has trouble against the run, and that's what these Wildcats do best. I think both of these teams will get their points, but that the Razorbacks will come out ahead in the end.
Previous meetings: Four. Back in 1910, the Wildcats won 5-0, which they followed up with a 3-0 win in 1911. They also beat Arkansas 16-7 in 1926. The last meeting was in 1967, when the Razorbacks got on the board with a 28-7 win.
Last bowl game: This is K-State's second straight bowl game. Last year, they lost to Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl, 36-34. This is Arkansas's third straight postseason appearance. They lost to Ohio State in last year's Sugar Bowl, 31-26.
Fun facts: Here's how you get a stadium named after you. By 1989, Kansas State had the losingest football program in history at 299-509-41 (or thereabouts, it sort of depends on who you ask). Bill Synder has changed all that, though. In his original tenure, from 1989-2005, the Wildcats amassed a 135-58-1 record good for the 10th-winningest team in that period. Of course, the subsequent Ron Prince era was a little rocky, which is how you get invited back to coach once again.

Saturday, January 7
1:00: Southern Methodist vs. Pittsburgh (BBVA Compass Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Both of these schools have been in the headlines so far this offseason, though mostly for the dalliances of their coaches. Todd Grahm left for his "dream job" at Arizona State, leaving behind a locker room of pissed off players. June Jones, meanwhile, was moments away from that same job, but had his offer withdrawn at the last minute. So which is worse: abandoning your team without warning, or attempting to abandon your team without warning and then having it backfire on you at the last moment, forcing you to go back to Dallas and say "no, see, I almost got that other job but I really want to be here!" I guess we're about to find out, because on paper I'm giving SMU the edge.
Previous meetings: Five, but only one back in SMU's glory days in the 80's. SMU won the first game in 1938, and lost 34-7. Two years later the teams were locked in a 7-7 tie, and then in 1942 Pitt won 20-7. SMU then won 33-14 in 1948. They finally met again in the 1982-83 Cotton Bowl, when SMU managed a 7-3 victory.
Last bowl game: SMU is making its third straight bowl appearance. Last year they went to the nearby Armed Forces Bowl, where they lost to Army 16-14. Pitt is making its fourth straight bowl game and second straight appearance in this very bowl. Last year they beat Kentucky, 27-10.
Fun facts: Pitt is famous for its Cathedral of Learning, which is the second tallest educational building in the world. It's 535 feet tall and has 42 stories, and contains many of the school's classrooms and meeting rooms.

Sunday, January 8
9:00: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois (godaddy.com Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): This is almost required viewing, just for the offensive fireworks alone. (Don't let Arkansas State's 20th ranked defense fool you.) I'd say something along the lines of "well, NIU's rushing attack should let them use up the clock" except that they won a game 63-60 earlier this year without the aid of any overtime periods. I think in the end the Huskies' offense will just be too potent.
Previous meetings: As ASU began their transition back to Division I-A, the two teams met 7 straight times starting in 1990. Based on that, it's not too surprising the Huskies won the first 5 games and usually by pretty comfortable margins. The Red Wolves broke through win their only win in the series in 1995, 28-21 victory, and then went right back to losing with a 31-30 loss in 1996, the two teams' last meeting.
Last bowl game: Arkansas State is making its first bowl appearance since the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, where lost to Southern Miss, 31-19. That game was also their first ever bowl game. The Huskies, meanwhile, are making their fourth straight bowl game. Last year they destroyed Fresno State in the then-Humanitarian Bowl (now the Potato Bowl), 40-17.
Fun facts: godaddy.com is a domain registrar. I would highly recommend against utilizing their services.

Bowl Games 2011: Part 4

2012-01-01T22:00:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 2
12:00: Houston vs. Pennsylvania State (TicketCity Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPNU): I think it's pretty safe to say that Penn State is the best team Houston has played all year. The Nittany Lions also sport the nation's 5th ranked pass defense against the country's top passing offense. So this is a pretty classic battle of "unstoppable force meets immovable object". Then again, Penn State's offense is just not in any realm that we could really consider "good", so even if the defense does generate a few stops (and while they're good, it's unlikely they'll completely shut the Cougars down) I don't think their offense will be able mount a convincing enough response.
Previous meetings: Two, in 1964 and 1977. Penn State won both games by scores of 24-7 and 31-14.
Last bowl game: The Cougars didn't go to a bowl game last season, so their last post-season appearance was the 2009 Armed Forces Bowl, where they lost to Air Force 47-20. Penn State is headed to their 7th straight bowl game. Last year they played in the Outback Bowl and lost to Florida 37-24.
Fun facts: Houston began life as a junior college component of Houston's school system in the 1930's. It became independent by 1945, though, and in 1953 became the first university to have its own TV station, KUHT. Also, I like calling the game the "Zombie Cotton Bowl" due to the location of the game.

1:00:

Michigan State vs. Georgia (Outback Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ABC): How does Michigan State rank 39th in scoring offense but 60th in yards? Well, having good special teams helps, and that just happens to be Sparty's only really clear advantage over the Bulldogs. Both of these teams sport top-5 defenses and are just good enough to get by on offense, generally. I'm going with Sparty by just a hair.
Previous meetings: Two, both in New Year's Day Bowl games in 1989 and 2009. UGA won both meetings. The first was the Gator Bowl, which they won 34-27 and the second was the Capital One Bowl, which they won 24-12.
Last bowl game: The Spartans are still trying to forget their last bowl outing: a 49-7 shallacking from Alabama in last season's Capital One Bowl. They are appearing in their fifth straight bowl game. UGA is making their 15th straight bowl appearance. Appropriately enough, their streak began with the 1997 edition of the Outback Bowl, where they beat Wisconsin 33-6. Last year they appeared in the Liberty Bowl, where they lost to Central Florida 10-6.
Fun facts: East Lansing is, of course, a college town east of its namesake, Lansing. But, did you know that Lansing is the only US state capitol that is not also its county seat? Now you do.
South Carolina vs. Nebraska (Capital One Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): I wish I could say something more insightful other than "it's hard to see how South Carolina is going to score enough points to win this game" but that's pretty much all I have for this one.
Previous meetings: Three times, and unsurprisingly, the Huskers are 3-0 against the Gamecocks. In 1964 they won 28-6, in 1986 they won 27-24, and in 1987 they won 30-21.
Last bowl game: The Gamecocks are making their fourth straight bowl game appearance. Last year they lost to Florida State in the Chick-fil-a Bowl 26-17. Nebraska is also making their fourth straight bowl appearance and just came off two straight appearances in the Holiday Bowl. They lost to Washington in the latter game, 19-7.
Fun facts: The Capital One Bowl used to be the Citrus Bowl, and is still played in that stadium in Orlando. Of course, from its founding in 1947 until 1983 it was known as the Tangerine Bowl. The name change occurred along with a notable boost in the profile of the invited teams. Confusingly, after that another game was founded that was called the Tangerine Bowl and is now played at the Citrus Bowl, but that's a story for another day. Also, while working on this a promo for this game just advertised "Steve Spurrier's bruising 'D'" which is among a list of phrases I thought I would never hear.
Ohio State vs. Florida (Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN2): It's hard to imagine that the Gator Bowl needed a gimmick to match up Ohio State and Florida, but remember, these are two 6-6 teams that have some very big issues. Specifically, on offense: both rank in the bottom 20 of total offense. Florida's defense is better in terms of yards per game, but in terms of scoring defense these teams are about identical. Even though Charlie Weis is now at Kansas, it's hard to see Florida suddenly realizing that they are allowed to, like, score points and stuff. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have a guy in Braxton Miller who is capable of winning the game for them but also plenty capable of losing it for them. However, the Gators really no guys in the former category, giving Urban's new team the edge.
Previous meetings: Only once, in the 2006-2007 BCS Championship Game. The Gators won 41-14.
Last bowl game: Ohio State "appeared" in last year's Sugar Bowl and "won" 31-26. Depending on how you interpreted the term "vacate", the Buckeyes are making their 12th straight postseason appearance. This will be the last game in the streak due to the bowl ban for next season. The Gators, meanwhile are making their 21st-straight bowl game, the second longest streak in the nation. The beginning of the streak was the 1991-1992 Sugar Bowl, where they lost to Notre Dame 39-28. Last year, the Gators beat Penn State 37-24 in the Outback Bowl.
Fun facts: Despite occasional moments of greatness, Florida football basically didn't exist before Steve Spurrier was hired in 1990. Since then, the Gators' are the winningest football program in the country.

5:00: Wisconsin vs. Oregon (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): Boy howdy, I sure do hope you like points! However, Wisconsin also plays that defense thing, so as long as the game doesn't come down to a Hail Mary pass as time expires this season has shown that they should be okay. Then again, they haven't played any offense that is quite like Oregon's, either. Well, okay, really anything like Oregon's at all. Wisconsin will of course have all sorts of size advantages on defense, but I don't think most people would argue that they're like LSU's defense, which held Oregon to "only" 27 points. And Oregon will be more than happy to neutralize Wisconsin's size with speed on both sides of the ball. That said, I'm going to go with my gut and take the Badgers.
Previous meetings: Four, and none have been Rose Bowls, but instead it appears that they played two sets of home-and-home series in 1977 and 1978, and 2000 and 2001. Wisconsin won the first three games, but Oregon took the last game 31-28.
Last bowl game: Wisconsin is appearing in their tenth straight bowl game, and their second consecutive appearance in the Rose Bowl. Last year, they lost to TCU 21-19. Oregon is making their seventh straight bowl game. Last year, they lost to Auburn in the BCS National Championship game, 22-19.
Fun facts: The cartoon version of Oregon's Duck mascot looks a lot like Donald Duck, owing to the popularity of the Disney character during the mascot's formative years and a handshake agreement between the Oregon athletic director at the time and Walt Disney himself. (These days, the agreement is much more formal.)

8:30: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): Both of these teams are good at throwing the ball and bad at defending against the pass. What does that mean? You guessed it - points! While Luck is the better quarterback, Oklahoma State really has more skill players around Brandon Wheedon, not to mention that Justin Blackmon guy. It's hard to see how the Cardinal will have an answer for him, allowing the Cowboys to pull away in the end.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: This OSU is making their sixth straight bowl appearance. Last year they handily beat Arizona 36-10 in the Alamo Bowl. The Cardinal is making their third straight appearance, and last year they easily dispatched Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl, 40-12.
Fun facts: The (in)famous Stanford tree mascot is actually the mascot of the (also (in)famous) Stanford marching band.

Bowl Games 2011: Part 3

2011-12-29T22:21:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, December 30
12:00: Tulsa vs. Brigham Young (Armed Forces Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): Tulsa sports a fun, high-flying offense. BYU comes in with a pretty decent defense, so this could be a, let's say, 35-27 kind of affair. The question, which side gets to 35 first? Does BYU generate enough stops to limit Tulsa to just 27, or does the porous Tulsa defense allow the Cougars to get there first? Actually, let's make that 35-32, Tulsa.
Previous meetings: These two have met seven times, and BYU leads the all-time series, 6-1. They last met in 2007, which Tulsa won 55-47.
Last bowl game: Tulsa demolished Hawaii in last year's Hawaii bowl, 62-35. This is BYU's 7th straight bowl game, with their last game being a 52-24 beatdown of UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl.
Fun facts: Tulsa is known as the "Golden Hurricane" because at the time (the early 1920's) Georgia Tech was known was the "Golden Tornado". Tulsa stuck with their weather phenomena moniker, but the Yellow Jackets did not.

3:30: Iowa State vs. Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl @ New York, NY; ESPN): Dear Cyclones: while I found your double overtime win over Oklahoma State exhilarating and exciting, it did, unfortunately, doom us to LSU-Alabama Part II. I'm picking Rutgers in a close, low-scoring game.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: Iowa State last made a bowl game in 2009, where they beat Minnesota 14-13 in the Insight Bowl. Rutgers had a 5-year bowl game streak snapped last year. In 2009, they won the-then St. Petersburg Bowl 45-24 over Central Florida.
Fun facts: Rutgers was not the original name for the State University of New Jersey. Founded in 1766 as Queen's College, the Revolutionary War necessitated a new name, and Colonel Henry Rutgers was around at the time, and one thing lead to another...

6:40: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ESPN): Other than Wake's now-traditional upset of Florida State, both of these teams pretty much beat the teams they were supposed to and lost to the teams they were supposed, which is pretty much how you get to 6-6. That said, it's hard to see these Bulldogs getting blown out by Vanderbilt 41-7, so I'll have to go with the ess-eee-cee again in this one.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: The Bulldogs make their second straight bowl appearance, with the previous game being a 52-14 rout of Michigan in the Gator Bowl. Wake Forest is just breaking out of one of their "down cycles", with their last bowl appearance being a 29-19 win over Navy in the 2008 Eaglebank Bowl (which is now the Military Bowl).
Fun facts: In one of my favorite university history anecdotes, Wake Forest was originally found around what would become known as Wake Forest, North Carolina, after the college. After a sizable donation in 1946, the school began work to move to nearby Raleigh, and completed the move by 1956, leaving the town named after the university with a new Baptist seminary.

10:00: Oklahoma vs. Iowa (Insight Bowl @ Tempe, AZ; ESPN): While the Hawkeyes may get a slight spark from the retirement of their long time defensive coordinator, I feel like they kind of used their "upset of clearly superior team" card this year when they beat Michigan. I'm going with Sooners in a scoring bonanza.
Previous meetings: Just one: a 21-6 Oklahoma win in 1979.
Last bowl game: This is Oklahoma's 13th straight bowl game, with the progenitor of the streak being the 1999 Independence Bowl, which they lost to Ole Miss 27-25. Last year, they destroyed UConn in the Fiesta Bowl, 48-20. This will be Iowa's fourth straight bowl game, with their previous game being this very game, actually, where they beat Mizzou in a thriller no-one saw, 27-24.
Fun facts: Of all the Big Ten's various trophy games, by far the most amusing is the Iowa-Minnesota game, which is played for a pig known as the Floyd of Rosedale.

Saturday, December 31
12:00: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Northwestern (Car Care Bowl of Texas @ Houston, TX; ESPN): My favorite running joke of this college football season has been TAMU's second half defense. It goes something like this: "Down by more than 10 points at halftime? You've got Texas A&M right where you want them." Both these teams are more than capable of putting up points, which means what this game lacks in quality or defense it should make up for in scoring. And, well, at this point, can you really pick the Aggies? Northwestern rallies in the second half to win a shootout.
Previous meetings:None.
Last bowl game: This is TAMU's third straight bowl game. The lost to 41-24 to LSU in last season's Cotton Bowl. Northwestern is actually appearing in their fourth straight bowl game, and they lost last season's TicketCity Bowl to Texas Tech, 45-38.
Fun facts: Both of these schools apparently have satellite campuses in Qatar. I'm not sure what else to say about that.

2:00: Georgia Tech vs. Utah (Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX; CBS): This is the toughest game for me to predict, every year. Yes, I know about the Georgia Tech bowl streak, especially with regards to our offense. Do I necessarily think there's anything to it? It's hard to say. Against LSU and Iowa, we simply lost to better opponents. Against Air Force, it looked like we were just... bad. This Utah squad sports the nation's 7th ranked rush defense but unlike in past years they haven't played any option teams. However, they did win their last three games straight against Air Force. Perhaps the best matchup for the Jackets is Utah's mediocre-to-bad offense that couldn't score against Colorado with the Pac-12 South on the line against GT's mediocre-but-improving defense.
Previous meetings: One, in the 2005 Emerald Bowl. Utah won 38-10. That's really all there is to say on the matter.
Last bowl game: GT is making its 15th straight bowl appearance, which is currently tied for the fourth-longest in the country with UGA, of all teams. The streak started with a 35-30 win over West Virginia in the 1997 CarQuest Bowl, which these days is in Orlando and is known as the Champs Sports Bowl. However, starting with the last time these two teams faced each other, Tech has lost six straight bowl game, including last year's ugly 14-7 loss to Air Force in the Independence Bowl. Utah is making its ninth straight bowl appearance. Their streak started with a 17-0 win over Southern Miss in the 2003 Liberty Bowl. Last year, they lost 26-3 to Boise state in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Fun facts: Like any good football rivalry, Utah and BYU disagree on the number of wins and losses on each side. Utah counts 6 games BYU played as the "Brigham Young Academy" in the late 19th-century, while BYU says the series did not begin until 1922. Either way, Utah leads the series, but 53-33-4 or 50-30-4 depends on who you ask.

3:30: Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ABC): Vandy has the country's 19th ranked defense, which is starting to make me think there may be something to "well, maybe most of the offenses in the SEC are just kind of bad" train of thought. I'd make this a fun fact, but it's just too fun: Cincy's quarterback for the past few games has been Munchie Legaux. While I expect the 'Dores to put up a fight as they have for most of the season, I think Cincy has the edge here.
Previous meetings: The first meeting really goes back. I mean, really, because it was in 1898 with a follow-on game in 1899. Cincy won both games, 10-0 and 6-0. Vandy put in a one-off beat down in 1934 (32-0), and then Cincinnati got to repay the favor in 1976 by winning 32-0. A year later though, the Dores decided revenge was a dish best served hot and not over half a century later by winning 33-7. Vandy won the last two meetings in 1993 and 1994 17-7 and 34-24.
Last bowl game: Vandy is making their first bowl game appearance since 2008's Music City Bowl, where they beat Boston College 16-14. Cincinnati had a four game bowl streak snapped last year. The last game in that streak was a 51-24 loss to Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
Fun facts: One of Cincinnati's chief football rivals is Miami University (you know, the one in Ohio). The series is much more even than you might expect. Miami is 59-49-7 all-time, and also is pretty even over the past 20 years even as Cincinnati has risen through the college football ranks.

3:30: California-Los Angeles vs. Illinois (Fight Hunger Bowl @ San Francisco, CA; ESPN): Well, I hate myself enough to actually watch this game. Do you? This game is the poster child for "there are too many bowl games", as UCLA had to get a waiver to even be eligible at 6-7, and Illinois just went 0-6 to end the season. Both of teams subsequently fired their head coaches and booked travel to San Francisco. At least when UCLA got blown out to end the season, it was to teams like USC and Oregon and not, you know, Minnesota. These sorts of games tend to be sloppy affairs, the question is if it'll be of the fun sort where neither side really bothers to play defense or the kind where neither team really shows up and someone happens to win at the end. I'm guessing the latter here. For some reason I'm taking the Illini.
Previous meetings: These teams have met 11 times, so I won't go through them all. They first met all the way back in the 1946-1947 Rose Bowl, with the Illini winning 45-14. I guess they worked out some sort of scheduling agreement then, because then they played 6 times in the regular season from 1950 to 1964, with the Illini going 4-2. In 1983-1984 they met in the Rose Bowl again, with the Bruins winning 45-9, and then 7 years later they also won the Sun Bowl, 6-3. They then met 12 years later with the Bruins winning with the same 6-3 score, and then finally some touchdowns were scored in they last meeting in 2004, with UCLA coming out ahead 35-17. The Bruins lead the all-time series 6-5.
Last bowl game: UCLA's last bowl game a was a 30-21 win in the 2009 EagleBank Bowl. Illinois made a bowl game last year, where they beat Baylor 38-14 in the Texas Bowl.
Fun facts: This game dampens my spirits such that I can't think of anything fun about it.

7:30: Virginia vs. Auburn (Chick-fil-a Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Virginia looked for awhile to actually be kind of legit, and then they got blown out 38-0 by their in-state rival. Whoops. Meanwhile Auburn just lost their offensive coordinator to Arkansas... State. Auburn also had an awful time against teams that actually played defense, which (38-0 aside) Virginia actually does. I'm going to predict a moderate score for both sides in this game, which will probably be more exciting than most observers thing, but I'll kowtow to the ESS-EEE-CEE groupthink and go with the Tigers.
Previous meetings: Two, in 1997 and 1998. Auburn won the first game 28-17, but the Cavs shut out the Tigers 19-0 in the second.
Last bowl game: This is UVA's first bowl game since 2007-8's Gator Bowl, where they lost to Texas Tech 31-28. Auburn is appearing in their third straight bowl game. You might recall they beat Oregon in last year's BCS Championship Game, 22-19.
Fun facts: Virginia's athletic teams really are named after the historical English Cavaliers, the side in the English Civil War that was loyal to the king, and later on, the original Virginia colonists who were loyalists.

Bowl Games 2011: Part 2

2011-12-25T13:00:00.000-08:00

Merry Christmas, loyal readers. All, um, five of you.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, December 26
5:00: North Carolina vs. Missouri (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN2): Nothing quite says "mediocre bowl game" like two teams with 7-5 records and average statistical rankings, it seems like. I guess it shows I haven't paid a lot of attention to Mizzou this year, as I'm pretty shocked that they're 11th in the nation in rushing and 57th in passing, which is pretty much the complete opposite of the past few years for them. This version of the UNC defense isn't as fearsome as past editions, which makes me give a slight edge to the Tigers.
Previous meetings: Two, all the way back in 1973 and 1976. Mizzou won both games, 27-14 and 24-3.
Last bowl game: This is Carolina's fourth consecutive bowl game, with their last appearance being that that debacle of a Music City Bowl against Tennessee that they wound up winning 30-27. Mizzou makes their seventh straight bowl appearance here, but you probably don't remember their last game: the very anonymous Insight Bowl. They lost 27-24 to Iowa.
Fun facts: I'd grumble some more about 5th down, but these are supposed to be fun facts.

Tuesday, December 27
4:30: Purdue vs. Western Michigan (Little Caesars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): The Boilermakers are pretty much here due to their miracle upset of Ohio State back on November 12th. It's hard to tell how much of a talent disparity there is in games like, this, though, as WMU's stats could be inflated by their league while Purdue's could be deflated by theirs. I'm leaning toward this being a shootout, with Purdue coming out just barely ahead.
Previous meetings: Two, which is actually lower that I would've thought given the Big Ten teams' proclivity of scheduling MAC teams as patsies. Anyway, they were both in September, but the first was in 1993 and the last in 2002. Purdue won both, 28-13 and 28-24.
Last bowl game: The Boilermakers are making their first bowl appearance since 2007, when they beat another directional Michigan (Central) in this very same game, 51-48 (though it was then the Motor City Bowl). The Broncos' last bowl appearance was actually more recent. They lost 38-14 to Rice in the 2008 Texas Bowl (which is now the Mieneke Car Care Bowl of Texas).
Fun facts: Purdue quarterbacks (a group that includes names like Bob Griese and Drew Brees) have more touchdown passes thrown in the NFL than any other school.

8:00: North Carolina State vs. Louisville (Belk Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): Mediocrity, ahoy! Both of these teams sport anemic offenses and above-average defenses, which points to a low-scoring struggle to see who can kick the most field goals. However, NC State's kicker is 10 of 15 and Louisville's is 11 of 16, so that doesn't quite work either in terms of distinguishing these two teams. In their last two games, both teams found their offensive mojo, as NC State routed Maryland in their last game and upset Clemson before that, while the Cardinals won 5 of their last 6 after a 2-4 start. These are basically the same team, if you ask me, so I'll go with the one that beat North Carolina this year: NC State.
Previous meetings: This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams, with NCSU looking for its first win against the Cardinals. The first was all the way back in 1953, which Louisville won 26-2. In 1994 they won 35-14, and in 2007 they won 29-10.
Last bowl game: The Wolfpack went to the Champs Sports Bowl last year, where they beat West Virginia 23-7. Louisville won last year's Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl, beating Southern Mississippi 31-28.
Fun facts: I'm not entirely sure how this works, but the cardinal in the Louisville logo has teeth.

Wednesday, December 28
4:30: Toledo vs. Air Force (Military Bowl @ Washington, D.C.; ESPN): Combined average defense ranking of these two teams: 73rd in the country. Mean, both these teams are more than capable of scoring: Toledo, (in)famously lost game this year 60-63 and then came back and won the next week 66-63. Air Force's defense is really awful in all phases, though, while Toledo is mainly terrible against the pass (118th out of 120), something they won't really have to worry about against the triple-option lovin' Falcons. Toledo edges out (another) shootout.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: The Rockets went to last year's Little Caesar's Bowl, where they lost 34-32 to Florida International. Air Force is making their fifth straight bowl game, and they (sigh) beat Georgia Tech 14-7 in last year's Independence Bowl.
Fun facts: Toledo's moniker, the Rockets, apparently originated as a contraction of "Skyrockets", which was made up during in the pressbox during a massive upset in the early 1920's. The name stuck, despite the university not otherwise having much to do with rocketry.

9:00: California vs. Texas (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): After watching the Texas-Texas A&M game, I think I described the Longhorns' offense as "the McGuyver of offenses", held together by trick plays, bubblegum, and dental floss. This is the best all-around defense the Golden Bears have played all year, and they already struggled offensively against every other decent outfit they've played. Both teams will struggle to score, but I think Longhorns are more used to that and will come out ahead in the end. (Yes, I'm aware Texas just gave up 48 to Baylor, but Cal doesn't have Robert Griffin III at QB for them, last I checked.)
Previous meetings: The Bears are 0-4 against the Longhorns, and it hasn't really even been close. The first meeting was in 1959, which Texas won 33-0. Two years later, they met again, with the Texas winning 28-0. To close the decade out, they met in 1969 and 1970, and again, it was all Texas, as they won 17-0 and 56-15, respectively.
Last bowl game: Cal previously had a good bowl streak going, but missed out on the postseason last year, making this their first game since the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, where they lost to Utah 37-27. Texas looks to restart a long streak that was also broken last year, which was only one season after the lost to Alabama in the 2009-2010 BCS National Championship Game, 37-21.
Fun facts: One of the first fight songs I ever learned was the Cal Drinking Song. Of course, there's another Cal song that has a tune that's very familiar to most Tech fans, though I've read articles elsewhere that state the common theory about the song being lifted after the 1929 Rose Bowl to be false.

Thursday, December 29
5:30: Notre Dame vs. Florida State (Champs Sports Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): FSU's offense is also a short of make-shift outfit, but they do have the dynamic E.J. Manuel, who on his good days can put some points on the board for the Seminoles. They also have the sixth ranked total defense in the country, but as their 23-13 loss to Oklahoma showed, that doesn't necessarily matter if you still can't put up the points, which hasn't been a problem for the Irish this year. I'll take the Domers in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Previous meetings: For the all the cachet this matchup has, I was actually somewhat surprised to find that FSU and Notre Dame only met once when the former was an independent, in 1981. (FSU joined the ACC in 1992.) FSU won that game 19-13. In the 90's, the two teams played 3 times, with ND winning 31-14 in 1993 and FSU winning 23-16 in 1994. On New Year's Day in 1996, they met in the Orange Bowl and FSU won 31-26. And finally, they played again in 2002 and 2003. ND won the first game 34-24, but FSU shut them out in the latter game, 37-0.
Last bowl game: Notre Dame ventured to El Paso last year for the Sun Bowl, where they beat Miami 33-17. FSU, of course, currently owns the longest bowl streak in the nation, with this being their 30th consecutive appearance. One has to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Seminoles failed to reach a bowl game. The year after, they went to what was then known as the Tangerine Bowl, where they beat Texas Tech 40-17. Last year, the beat South Carolina in the Chick-fil-a Bowl 26-17.
Fun facts: Other than the usual (and tired) jokes about FSU being a women's college until 1947, I can't really think of anything to put here.

9:00: Washington vs. Baylor (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): The best hope for the Huskies in this one is probably to force a shootout and hope to have the ball last, because otherwise their offense isn't good enough to keep up with the Bears, even with Baylor's really bad defense.
Previous meetings: Four, and somewhat surprisingly none were bowl games. Baylor won the first two contests in 1954 and 1955 34-7 and 13-7, respectively. They met again in 1964 and 1965, and this time the Huskies managed to win a game 35-14, but the Bears came right back in '65 and won 17-14.
Last bowl game: The Huskies snapped a bowl drought last season by making the Holiday Bowl, where they pulled off one of the most shocking upsets of last bowl season by beating Nebraska 19-7. Baylor's drought was even longer before they made the Texas Bowl last year, when they lost to Illinois 38-14. Before that, they had not appeared in a bowl game since 1994, and you have to go all the way back to the 1992 Sun Bowl to find the last time they won a bowl game. (They beat Arizona 20-15 in that game.)
Fun facts: Very occasionally, there is actually somewhat clever writing on Wikipedia. For instance, referring to Washington: "The husky was selected as the school mascot by student committee in 1922. It replaced the 'Sun Dodger,' an abstract reference to the local weather that was quickly dropped in favor of something more tangible." Well done, I say.

Bowl Games 2011: Opening Slate

2011-12-16T00:58:00.000-08:00

Let's start off with all the pre-Christmas bowl games. The full set of winner-loser predictions are available, but more detailed previews will come closer to the games themselves.

As usual, all times Eastern, and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 17
2:00: Temple vs. Wyoming (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Bowl season kicks off down in New Mexico, where anything could happen in this MAC-MWC matchup. Which, like many of these sorts of games, make it hard to predict. The matchup the Owls will be looking to exploit is their 7th-ranked rushing attack against the nation's 115th-ranked rushing defense. Temple also has a decent defense themselves, which makes me inclined to think they'll prevail.
Previous meetings: Only one, back in 1990. Wyoming won 38-23.
Last bowl game: For the Cowboys, it was the 2009 edition of this very game, where they beat Fresno State 35-28. Temple also last went bowling in 2009 despite an 8-4 record last year. They lost to UCLA 30-21 in what was then the Eaglebank Bowl, but is now the Military Bowl.
Fun facts: New for this year, I'll attempt to unearth some sort of interesting (to me, at least) fact about either or both of the teams involved in the game. Generally this means I'll look something up on Wikipedia, so hopefully the schools involved don't generally have their pages vandalized very often. But today, I will remind you that brown and gold are Wyoming's official colors. This leads to what I think are college football's most charming and, at the same time, ugliest uniforms:

When EA Sports' NCAA Football games used to have a create-a-school option I generally tried to make the home uniforms as ugly as possible. After they took that out, well, it was pretty obvious which team I had to lead to glory.

5:30: Utah State vs. Ohio (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): Utah State chose pretty much the most dramatic route to a bowl game possible. After a 2-5 start including a game at Auburn that they led in the fourth quarter and a double overtime loss to Colorado State, they rallied to win five straight. Nonetheless, they only one two of their games by more than a touchdown, which means that the Bobcats will likely be in this thing to the end. Both these teams would prefer to run the bowl, especially Utah State, whereas Ohio features a more balanced offense. That said, I like the Bobcats. While their numbers are very similar, I think the MAC was a tougher conference than the WAC this year. I guess we'll find out for sure on Saturday, though.
Previous meetings: Once, amazingly, in 1994. If I had more time, I would look this up, because Utah State apparently won 5-0. (I just checked on Google, but even 1994 as a search term it still just came up with articles for this year's game.)
Last bowl game: For the Aggies, you have to go all the way back to 1997, when they lost to Cincinnati 35-19 in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Bobcats are headed to their 3rd straight game and their first win in a bowl game (they're 0-5 all-time in bowl games). They lost 48-21 to Troy last year in the New Orleans Bowl.
Fun facts: Utah State's basketball arena is known as the "Dee Glen Smith Spectrum", which reminds me that one of these days I need to figure out how "Spectrum" became used as a word for indoor sports arenas, as Idaho has the Keenan Spectrum for basketball, and Philadelphia, of course, had the most famous version.

9:00: San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): The Ragin' Cajuns should definitely enjoy home field advantage in their first ever bowl game. That said, I don't think that will be enough to get them past a superior San Diego State team.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: The Ragin' Cajuns have been playing major college football since 1973, and this will be their first bowl game. In that time, they only have two other seasons with more than 6 wins: 1993 (8-3) and 1976. The Aztecs are now in a bowl game two years running. Last year they beat Navy 35-14 in the hometown Poinsettia Bowl.
Fun facts: There have been numerous debates in Louisiana over the years about which school there had the right to call itself just "the University of Louisiana". While there's always definitively been one Louisiana State, the University of Louisiana system was only formed in 1974 as a conglomeration of existing campuses. That said, Lafayette is the largest campus in the system.

Tuesday, December 20
8:00: Marshall vs. Florida International (Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): Neither of these teams really do the "scoring points" thing particularly well, but at least FIU does prevent other teams from scoring points. The result? A situation where I'll actually pick a Sun Belt team to win.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: For the Herd, it was the 2009 Little Ceasars Bowl, where they beat Ohio 21-17. FIU, of course, made their first ever bowl appearance in that very same game, but in 2010, where they beat Toledo 34-32.
Fun facts: FIU was established in 1965, which has to make them one of, if not the, youngest universities in major college football.

Wednesday, December 21
8:00: Louisiana Tech vs. Texas Christian (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): While TCU finds itself in the somewhat strange situation of being outside the top ten teams in the country in defense, they're still pretty good. And I'll roll with the MWC champs over the WAC champs any day.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: LaTech was last seen beating Northern Illinois in the 2008 Independence Bowl, 17-10. TCU meantime, is back in the Poinsettia Bowl (where they played in 2008, beating a 12-1 Boise team 17-16) after two straight appearance in BCS bowl games. Boise got revenge in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl, winning 17-10, but the Horned Frogs mustered just enough to win the Rose Bowl 21-19 against Wisconsin last year. TCU has also made a bowl appearance every year since 2004, and discounting that, every year since 1998.
Fun facts: Unlike, say, Georgia Tech, the full name of LaTech is actually "Louisiana Tech University". And they really are a university, since they have 19 bachelor's degrees in the liberal arts. If you're reading this, you likely already know the answer to this question, but I'll ask anyway: in major college football (Division I-A or FBS, that is) there are 120 teams. Five of them, one of them being Georgia Tech, do not have the word "university" in their title (as GT is the Georgia Institute of Technology). What are the other four?

Thursday, December 22
8:00: Arizona State vs. Boise State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ESPN): Unless Boise just comes in completely deflated and unmotivated in making their second straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance after having BCS aspirations (with this year being especially painful since they this was probably their best chance of getting into the BCS title game ever), this should be a cakewalk for Boise. The best Arizona State can hope for, most likely, is a shootout. [insert obligatory mention of Arizona State quarterback Brock Oswelier's 6'8" stature here]
Previous meetings: One, back before Boise State was any sort of powerhouse. The Sun Devils won easily, 56-7.
Last bowl game: Probably part of the reason Dennis Erickson got the ol' heave-ho is that this is the Sun Devil's first bowl game since 2007, where they lost to Texas 52-34 in the Holiday Bowl. Boise beat down Utah 26-3 in last year's Las Vegas Bowl, continuing a streak they've had since 2002, or 1999 if you discount that they went 8-4 in 2002 but didn't get an invite.
Fun facts: While I don't really mind the blue turf myself, it has invited a host of copycats. Most famous of these non-Boise surfaces is, of course, Eastern Washington:

But there's also the field donated to Barrow High School, which I believe is the world's northernmost American football field:

But this? There's just... well, I guess if you're the Central Arkansases (I guess that's the plural of "Arkansas"?) you'll do just about anything to stand out:

Saturday, December 24
8:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Nevada (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Nevada entered the season with hopes of dominating this year's watered-down WAC, but instead lost two conference games and got sent to Hawaii. Southern Miss, of course, just pulled off a pretty big upset to take the Conference USA crown, and they did it by forcing Case Keenum to have the worst day of his life. However, instead of ending up in the nearby Liberty Bowl, shenanigans occurred and they got sent to Hawaii. I mean, there are worse places to go for sure, but it's not so good in terms of having a victory lap for one of the most successful seasons in school history. They'll also need to switch gears from their stifling pass defense to their pretty good run defense, as they face the Wolf Pack's unique pistol offense. The Golden Eagles are no slouches on offense themselves, though, and they should eventually pull away in the second half for the victory.
Previous meetings: Two, in what was likely a home-and-home arrangement. Southern Miss won both legs, though. In 1997 the Golden Eagles prevailed 35-19, and then really poured it on in 1998 in a 55-28 win.
Last bowl game: Southern Miss is on a pretty long bowl game run themselves: every year since 2001, and 1997 if you discount that. Last year they lost 31-28 to Louisville in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl. Nevada's made a game every year since 2005, and last year beat Boston College 20-13 in the Fight Hunger Bowl.
Fun facts: In 1923, California finished 9-0-1 and claims a national title for that year. The only blemish was a 0-0 tie to Nevada. The Golden Bears had a 50-game winning streak at the time as well, making this one of the most unlikely upsets ever.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

2011-12-09T16:00:00.000-08:00

The regular season is technically over, but we'll cover the Army-Navy game as well as the various playoff games that are actually on television (not to mention the others that'll be on the Internet).

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
8:00: Northern Iowa @ Montana (Division I Quarterfinal; ESPN): These teams entered as the 5 and 4-seeds (respectively) in the tournament, and thus both received byes to the second round in the 20-team bracket. The Grizzlies thumped their second opponent, Central Arkansas, 41-14 while UNI ended up winning 28-21 with some help from probably the most boneheaded play of last weekend. Nonetheless, Montana has all the cards here, with superior offensive and defensive rankings as well as a projected game time temperature of about 25 degrees in their home stadium, which looking at attendance figures will probably be sold out. Meanwhile, UNI plays their home games in a dome. I think I know who I like here.

Saturday
Noon: Montana State @ Sam Houston State (Division I Quarterfinal; ESPN): Sam Houston State is the #1 seed in the tournament, but they're last in spelling, because apparently they are officially the "Bearkats". I mean, at least "dawgs" is usually an unofficial nickname, but nope, it's right there on their ESPN page. In protest, I refuse to write anything further about this game.

1:00: Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Grambling State (SWAC Championship @ Birmingham, AL; ESPNU): I really debated putting this game on the list. It's on TV and all, but... I don't know, maybe I just don't fully understand the traditions of the SWAC that would cause them to want to have their own title game and not participate in the playoffs that so many of us at the top level of the sport of would love to have. Not only that, but the SWAC has 10 teams and plays 9 conference games, which means that a title game is wholly unnecessary. Oh, and speaking of rematches, A&M beat Grambling 20-14 back in September. If anything, the game should be the resolution of the three 7-2 teams that all beat each other in the regular season (Jackson State, A&M, and Alabama State).

2:30: Army vs. Navy (@Landover, MD; CBS): This has not been a banner year for these two academies. Navy is 4-7 and Army is 3-8 and is, last I checked, narrowly favored for what has to be the first time in awhile. Both have been undone by very mediocre-to-bad defenses. That said, though, Navy's schedule was a lot tougher than Army's, with Navy's only really bad loss to San Jose State, then again, that's countered by Army's upset of Northwestern (which probably says a lot about how far the Wildcats have come more than anything else, since we can properly call it an "upset"). I'll stick with the Midshipmen to continue their nine game winning streak.

Look for bowl previews starting next week!

Bowl Predictions 2011: Shenanigans

2011-12-04T16:40:00.001-08:00

I didn't forsee Virginia Tech getting into the Sugar Bowl, but who did? Updated predictions are now available.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Final

2011-12-04T03:57:00.001-08:00

This is it. I'm going and writing this up now. We'll see what's still true later today.

I have come up eight possible scenarios based on the outcome of the BCS today. Basically, these are the three most important variables:

Whether Oklahoma State moves ahead of Alabama to #2 in the BCS
Whether Michigan moves from #16 to #14 or better in the BCS
Whether TCU moves from #18 to #16 or better in the BCS

This means that it is currently very difficult to nail down exactly what will happen with the Big Ten, Big 12, or Mountain West. (The SEC is unaffected because Alabama will go to a BCS game if it falls out of the top two.)

For each set of scenarios, there are constants. You can see those constants here. Also common in most of these scenarios is that I do not think Boise State will get a BCS at-large bid. If TCU does not make it, then I think that's that for the mid-majors this year - unless Michigan also does not make it, thus limiting the available/attractive at-large bids.

Which do I think is most likely? What I call "Scenario 1": a LSU-Alabama rematch with Michigan in and TCU out. This is currently what is available on the main page. Each scenario is also available in its entirety:

Why do I think the first is the most likely? I don't think enough voters will suddenly decide to put Oklahoma State ahead of Alabama and Stanford to pass them in the standings. Also, while many thought the Cowboys would pass Alabama in all the computers, the first poll out of the gate is the Sagarin ratings, which puts Alabama 2nd and Oklahoma State 3rd. While the highest and lowest positions for each team are thrown out, if any of the other five polls break that way then we will not have agreement among them. Also, all these teams in front of Michigan lost yesterday: Virginia Tech, Houston, Oklahoma, and Michigan State. The last two, specifically, are likely to fall behind Michigan in the new poll. The questions is: will they also fall behind TCU? The closest loss in the rankings to TCU was Georgia, which will fall behind them, but around them in the rankings are Baylor (which just beat Texas) and Clemson (which just demolished Virginia Tech). Also, I think many of the newly-minted two-loss teams today could settle in ahead of TCU. So in other words, it doesn't look good for the Horned Frogs. And given the general leanings of the folks who control the BCS, I don't think they'll give out a bone to Boise State, even though they could be as high as 5th in the new poll.

I'll start with the conferences that are well-defined in my template. Again, regardless of what happens at the top of the polls, that will likely not have any effect on these, and are constant across all scenarios.

ACC
With Clemson back to its old ways in the ACC title game, this makes the Chick-fil-a a very good bet to grab Virginia Tech, which means the FSU-Notre Dame matchup is back in play for the Champs. There's still some room for FSU to go to Atlanta, but I don't think VPI will fall past the Champs even though they got blown out. The rest of the conference looks pretty straightforward: Tech to the Sun, NC State to the Belk, Virginia to the Music City, Wake Forest to the Independence, and North Carolina to the Military.

Big East
The Champs Sports Bowl will almost certainly use its option to take Notre Dame this year. After that, only news searches revealed my least favorite bowl scenario is going to happen. Read the article if you want the gory details. The upshot is that other online search put Louisville as a solid lock of the Belk, Rutgers in the Pinstripe, and Pitt to the Compass, which leaves Cincy to the Liberty.

Conference USA
Houston losing was really bad for the conference. Due to the wacky Big East/SEC Liberty Bowl thing it also looks like Southern Miss won't be going there. While there supposedly is an "order" for the C-USA bowls that I found today, it still doesn't make much sense to me. Either way, they will fall a team short, most likely in the New Orleans Bowl. I put Southern Miss in the Compass Bowl and Houston in the TicketCity. I put SMU in the other Dallas bowl game, Marshall in the Beef 'O' Brady's, and shipped Tulsa out to Hawaii. But of all my picks, short of guessing at-large teams, I generally always feel the least confident about C-USA. Well, and the Big East.

Mid-American
With their win in the title game, NIU should be bound for the godaddy.com Bowl in Mobile. I saw a rumor say that Western Michigan would get the nod for Pizza Bowl, so I put conference runner-up Ohio out in Boise, with Toledo and Ball State waiting nervously by the phone.

Pacific-12
I think Stanford is a lock for a BCS at-large berth, which leaves the Pac-12 short a team or two, even with UCLA's waiver. As the best remaining team on the board at this point, I put Washington in the Alamo and Cal in the Holiday. Utah is the only other team with a winning record, so I stuck them in the Sun, and figured that left Arizona State for the Las Vegas Bowl. This leaves, of course, UCLA, which a trip to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

Southeastern
Since LSU and Alabama will both be in the BCS in any scenario, we can go ahead and figure the rest of the BCS. I like Arkansas to get the nod for the Capital One, which also lets the SEC bowls switch things up. Georgia and South Carolina, then will end up in the Outback and Cotton bowls, and maybe even in that order. Auburn is pretty solidly next on the plate, and with the worry of an Auburn-Clemson rematch gone, they'll get a trip to Atlanta. I think the Gator, regardless of scenario, will try to set up the Urban Meyer thing, so they'll probably take Florida. At this point, what's left is Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. I like both to stay home, relatively speaking, with Vandy going to the Music City and Miss State to the de facto capital of Mississippi, Memphis.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State, Florida International, and UL-Lafayette are all set. It's not looking good for Western Kentucky to get their first every bowl bid, though.

Western
Hawaii lost to BYU, so unlike UCLA, they will not be bowling at 6-7. Utah State and Louisiana Tech are set with bids already. There are some rumblings Nevada may work out an arrangement to play closer to home (say, the Fight Hunger), but without anything more concrete I'm sticking with putting them in the Hawaii Bowl.

Okay, cool, so what about the conferences that are affected by the BCS? Well, let's start with the Big 12.

Big 12
Whether Oklahoma State gets into the title game doesn't matter here, as they will be in the BCS either way. The question is whether Kansas State will get an at-large berth. Oklahoma, Houston, and Virginia Tech all lost in front of them and will probably fall behind K-State, which may make them an attractive candidate generally for lack of better options. The only team that threatens K-State in this regard is Boise State. I am perhaps not giving Boise enough credit for the BCS folks here, but I think the Wildcats would be an attractive option for the Fiesta or Sugar, while Boise is probably more attractive to the Fiesta. So in all scenarios where either Michigan or TCU do not make it, or both, I have Kansas State in over Boise. The BCS bowl committees may surprise me, though! It's happened before.

Outside of that, I think Oklahoma is a pretty safe bet for the Cotton in any scenario where K-State is in the BCS, but if K-State is not in the BCS I think they are bound for Arlington. From there, things pretty much just go in this order for me: Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Iowa State. Just push them up or down a slot depending on who gets into the BCS, basically.

Big Ten
Wisconsin is in and Michigan State is out, in all scenarios. The question is Michigan. If Michigan is in, and I think they will be, I think the Capital One jumps at the chance to grab Nebraska for the second time ever and the first since 1990. If Michigan is not in the BCS, however, then I think they will go to the Capital One. Either way, I think Michigan State is a good bet for the Outback Bowl, followed by Iowa if Michigan is in or Nebraska if Michigan is out. (If Michigan is out, some of my scenarios have Texas-Nebraska in the Insight Bowl. That'd be a fun one, I'd wager, but probably not likely.) I have Ohio State in the Gator regardless of scenario as well.

Then things start to get interesting. The Big Ten has too many teams for its bids, the questions is if this will be one or two extra teams. If Michigan is in, I think that will put Penn State in the Car Care Bowl, Purdue in the TicketCity, and Northwester in the Pizza with Illinois waiting anxiously. If Michigan is out, then I like Iowa to the Car Care, Penn State to the TicketCity, and Purdue in the Pizza, with Northwestern and Illinois waiting.

Mountain West
If Boise is not in, then all indications are they will go to the Las Vegas Bowl. If TCU is not in then they will go to the Poinsettia. The only way TCU goes to the Vegas, it appears, is if Boise gets into the BCS. If TCU is in the BCS, then it looks like (as of the wee hours of Sunday) that the Poinsettia will not take the hometown San Diego State Aztecs and instead take Wyoming. All scenarios put Air Force in the Independence again, while Wyoming goes to the New Mexico if they're still available, and San Diego State if they're not. With the former scenario, SDSU will need an at-large berth.

The leftovers
In no scenario do I have Ball State or Western Kentucky making a bowl game. (Sorry Hilltoppers.) Basically, all these scenarios have an affect on how many teams need at-large bids. In cases where the Big 12 gets two teams in, I have Temple in the Military Bowl and Iowa State if not. I also have Illinois going out west to the Fight Hunger Bowl in all scenarios. That leaves the New Orleans Bowl and New Mexico Bowl needing teams, which depends heavily on if Boise/TCU and/or Michigan got BCS bids. If both do, then I have Toledo and Temple in those games. If the former but not the latter then I have Northwestern and Temple, with Toledo out completely. If the Michigan gets in and Boise/TCU do not, then I have Toledo and San Diego State occupying those slots. If neither get in, then I have Northwestern and Toledo in those slots.

Note that when it comes to the at-larges, the situation tends to be extremely fluid and there can also be horsetrading (like I alluded to with Nevada).

I will update all 8 scenarios throughout the day as the bids come in, so stay tuned. If you really care about how I determine whether I predicted the matchups correctly, I will probably go with the scenario that most closely matches out the BCS actually turns out. I'll be keeping track of the final destinations here in a separate directory, even.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

2011-12-01T16:30:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
8:00: West Virginia @ South Florida (ESPN): The very last edition of Thursday night college football comes to you from "beautiful" Tampa, where "South" Florida will attempt to not lose to the Mountaineers. After starting 4-0, the Bulls have gone 1-6, so I can't say I really like their odds. Also, if WVU wins, they will probably get the Big East's BCS bowl bid if Cincinnati also wins.

Friday
7:00: Ohio vs. Northern Illinois (MAC Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): Unlike the other conference title game on this night, these two teams actually are the best teams in their league. Both teams can score, but the Bobcats seem to actually play defense sometimes, so I'll take them. I will say that I think this game will probably be close, unlike...

8:00: California-Los Angeles @ Oregon (Pac-12 Championship; FOX): This game. The only question is not if Oregon will win, but by how many touchdowns. By the way, UCLA did in fact get a waiver to go a bowl game at 6-7. Bruins fans: get your Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl tickets now!

Saturday
Noon:

Southern Mississippi @ Houston (C-USA Championship; ABC): Southern Miss may arguably be the best team Houston has seen all season, which is one of the reasons why the Cougars haven't been getting a lot of national attention. A win here does seal a BCS bowl bid for them, though, along with a large payday for the rest of Conference USA. Fortunately for the conscience of everyone involved, I really don't think they'll have that many issues, as the game will probably play out a lot like their game against Tulsa: a slow start and then pulling away in the second half.
Connecticut @ Cincinnati (ESPN): So it turns out the Big East can potentially end in a 3-way tie, among Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. Louisville is in the clubhouse with a 5-2 league record. If Cincy wins this game and WVU loses tonight, then Cincy wins the league outright due a head-to-head tiebraker. If Cincy loses this game, then Louisville wins the league outright by either having the best record (WVU loss) or due to their head-to-head tiebreaker over WVU. If there is a 3-way tie, then it will go to the BCS, and right now that benefits Cincy. In any case, I think Cincy is going to win this game.
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ESPN2): Do you want to see two 5-6 Big East teams attempt to sneak into a bowl game? Probably not, but in case you do, Pitt should win this game. The Orange have lost 4 straight after a 5-2 start and don't look to be getting any better.

12:30: Iowa State @ Kansas State (FSN): You what they say, "You don't just walk in to Bill Synder Family Memorial Stadium and expect to win." This applies to the Cyclones especially, as no one else has succeeded in beating the Wildcats at home this year expect for Oklahoma.

2:30: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Texas Christian (Versus): UNLV is awful. TCU should clinch the MWC title easily.

3:30: Texas @ Baylor (ABC): Texas basically McGuyver'ed a victory in College Station last week. Texas's offense hasn't shown enough ability to score against the other generous defenses of the Big 12, though, and while their defense is competent I don't think it'll be enough to prevent Robert Griffin III from doing his thing. If Texas had any offense at all, this would be a shootout, but instead I really like the Bears' chances.

4:00: Louisiana State vs. Georgia (SEC Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Georgia's good and all, but their best win of the year may, technically speaking, be over Georgia Tech. LSU is the best team in the land and should clear this hurdle, and probably easily.

7:30: Brigham Young @ Hawaii (ESPN2): BYU visits Hawaii! Why? Because they can! They should also get a victory for their efforts, though Hawaii does need the win to get bowl eligible.

8:00:

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Here's one rematch I can't say I mind too much. I think even the first time I liked the Badgers, and I'll stick by that here. Both of these teams are "pretty good" but not "great" and this should be a close, fun game once again.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Oh, what could have been. The mind still reels trying to comprehend how Texas Tech beat Oklahoma in Norman. I mean, at least OSU had the decency to get upset on the road. Anyway, this is still Bedlam and it's still in Stillwater. I always think "hey, this matchup is always pretty crazy!" but this ignores the historical reality. Anyway, we also know both of these teams can score, but Oklahoma can sort of/kind of actually play defense sometimes. That said, I've liked these Cowboys all season to win this game, and I'm not changing my mind now.
Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (ACC Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): Clemson has lost of its last four, with, as I've grown fond of saying, that one win being a last second FG to beat Wake Forest. This Clemson team shouldn't have any business needing last second field goals to beat Wake Forest, but here we are. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, easily beat Wake Forest and just finished routing their cross-state rival while Clemson lost to theirs, continuing to look lost on offense. What I'm saying is this: I really like the Hokies to prevail in this rematch.
Fresno State @ San Diego State (CBSS): SDSU likes to score points, and Fresno State doesn't like to play defense. Blowout, ahoy!

Check back in starting Saturday night for bowl predictions.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 7

2011-11-28T23:55:00.000-08:00

Almost everything went as expected this last weekend, which means while there were a few changes in the predictions there wasn't a major upheaval like there was last weekend. Let's start with the BCS this time.

Note that most bids will be announced very closely after Saturday's games. The last major hurdle is the final BCS standings, everyone should know where they're going for the holidays by the end of the day Sunday. And, as per usual, the predictions are available here.

BCS
I'm left with no other choice but to call LSU-Alabama. The only way I could see a change is a major uprising by poll voters to put Oklahoma State ahead of Alabama with a victory over Oklahoma on Saturday. In the other games, the major change is Michigan appearing in the Sugar Bowl. Wolverine fans should be pretty jazzed about beating Ohio State, but there is a slight problem: they are currently 16th in the BCS. However, Georgia and the loser of the Big Ten title game should fall behind them, allowing them to rise up to 14th by next weekend. If Michigan doesn't make it, then the Sugar may take Kansas State. Otherwise, there's nothing shocking about the rest of the BCS bowls.

ACC
The winner of the ACC title game will go to the Orange Bowl. Virginia Tech has a very outside shot at a BCS at-large even if they lose. With Clemson now having lost 2 of their last 3 games (and the 3rd was a last-second field goal over Wake Forest), a loss in the ACC title game may push them out of the Chick-fil-a now. For that reason, I've put Florida State above them in the pecking order, putting FSU in Atlanta and Clemson in the Champs Sports. (Also, I have Auburn in the Chick-fil-a game and though I've seen some things to the contrary I really don't think they want a rematch.) The Sun Bowl has said they will take Georgia Tech if available, so that's pretty easy. (A GT win against Georgia was necessary to raise our draft stock any higher.) With NC State's strong finish, they are a good candidate for the in-state Belk Bowl, which leaves Virginia for the Music City. This will stick the Independence Bowl with Wake Forest, relegating 3-5 North Carolina to the Military Bowl.

Big East
Who knows? I'm assuming West Virginia wins at this point and going from there. Oh, and ESPN's Big East blogger raised the scenario that I fear most, which that the Liberty will have a say in the Big East bowl picture. For the sake of my sanity, I'm assuming the Liberty will stick with Southern Miss whether they win or lose to Houston. Oh, and yeah, Notre Dame is almost certainly going to the Champs Sports instead of a Big East team.

Big Ten
The winner of the Big Ten will go to the Rose Bowl, and the loser of the title game will likely go to the Capital One Bowl (especially if Michigan gets a BCS at-large bid). From there, I have Nebraska breaking into their newfound ability to go to the Outback Bowl and then, as the last team that isn't 7-5 or 6-6, Penn State will probably end up in the Insight Bowl. (And frankly, the Insight Bowl may be the most anonymous bowl that features two BCS confernece teams, likely due to their previous TV contract with the NFL network. They could probably use the press.) I had to adjust my preliminary bowl predictions because the Gator said they really want to match Ohio State and Florida. (Remember folks, the bowl games exist mainly for themselves, not for you. The Gator is just the most brazen about it.)

Big 12
The Oklahoma-Oklahoma State winner will go to the Fiesta. If OSU loses they may still get a BCS bid (this depends on Michigan and Houston), however if the Sooners lose they are out of the BCS picture. I'm picking OSU to win that game, so I have K-State in the Cotton and Oklahoma in the Alamo. That leaves the rest of the conference picking up the scraps, with Texas at the top of the heap for the Insight, Baylor getting a nice trip to San Diego, TAMU getting a slightly less nicer trip to Houston. Oh, and Mizzou ends up in New York.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a mess with USC ineligible for a bowl game. Oregon and Stanford are probably both in, meanwhile UCLA (barring the biggest upset of the year) will probably be 6-7 and ineligible. While there were some reports they could get waiver, I haven't seen this confirmed yet. (If they do, they will almost certainly be in the Fight Hunger Bowl.) So with the two best teams in the BCS, that leaves everyone else to fight over the Alamo Bowl bid. Arizona State looked to be that team, but their epic collapse is complete and their coach fired, so Washington gets the nod. The Holiday will probably then take that chance to grab Cal, and so I'm left with Utah and Arizona State for the Sun. I figure the former's fans are going to feel a little better about themselves because I don't think anyone had them getting a winning record in Pac-12 play this year, so I'll put them into the sun and the Sun Devils in the Las Vegas Bowl.

SEC
The SEC will have two teams in the BCS. (If Georgia beats LSU and LSU falls to #2 and Bama rises to #1, they could even have three teams in the BCS, since UGA would get the Sugar auto-bid.) Since Tennessee lost to Kentucky, they will not have enough bowl eligible teams this year. For now, I have Arkansas going to the Capital One Bowl, which leaves the Cotton in a predicament of having to pick a SEC East team. I have them getting Georgia and leaving South Carolina to the Outback, though that could go either way. (Or Arkansas could fall past the Cap One, but I don't know if they would really want UGA, and it's not like Arkansas isn't going to have other chances to go the Cotton Bowl.) This leaves Auburn as a good choice for the Chick-fil-a (since they'll have equally attractive options on the ACC side to avoid the Auburn-Clemson rematch). I then have Vandy staying close by to go the Music City and Miss State going against Southern Miss in the Liberty.

The Rest
Some bids have come in already (indicated by the asterisks), but otherwise this is pretty unclear. The WAC has completely fooled me so far and it's not clear what the Hawaii Bowl will do if Hawaii loses to BYU this weekend. (I.e., they may decide to not take Nevada.) There's lots of guesses for C-USA and the at-large bids indicated by the question marks, but we will have enough teams. (I have 71 on this table, 72 if UCLA gets a waiver.)

Anyway, bowl bids will continue to trickle in throughout the week most likely, with a furious wave Saturday night and Sunday. What I usually do is make one last set of predictions Saturday evening and then watch the carnage unfold. A final post like this will probably go up really early on Sunday (or Saturday night, depending on your perspective). So until then...

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/26

2011-11-26T00:00:00.000-08:00

Men, Georgie's a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie's bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That's okay, because we're smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what's going to happen. That Georgie team's going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won't do any of that. While they waste their energy, we'll conserve ours. I've told you that they're bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That's true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We ... are ... smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we'll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they'll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we're smart, we'll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they'll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we'll get the football. And when that happens, I'll think of something and we'll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

2011-11-25T19:19:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Ohio State @ Michigan (ABC): Ohio State has won seven straight, but for the first time that I can remember Michigan has all the advantages. They play good enough defense, and while their offense is spotty it's more consistent than the Buckeyes'. Add in the fact it's in the Big House and the Wolverines have to be a clear favorite.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma (FX): Iowa State rocked the college football world in Ames last weekend, however, this contest is in Norman. Oklahoma, provided they learned anything from Baylor, should take the Cyclones seriously enough so as to not have any trouble with them.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): To hell with Georgia.
Rutgers @ Connecticut (ESPN2): I guess Rutgers is going to win this? I dunno. No, really, I don't.
Rice @ Southern Methodist (FSN): Neither of these teams are particularly good, but SMU is just slightly less bad.
Michigan State @ Northwestern (BTN): Spary's already clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, but they shouldn't overlook the Wildcats. I don't think they will.
Tennessee @ Kentucky (SEC): Oy. This is a SEC East slapfight. Both teams of these teams are also pretty bad, but again, the Vols are just slightly less bad.
James Madison @ Eastern Kentucky (NCAA Tournament; ESPNU): I like giving props to the NCAA football tournament, and this is the the only game on national TV. I know even less about these teams than I do even Rice and SMU, so I won't offer up a pick.

12:30: Maryland @ North Carolina State (ACC): Maryland is still simply awful this year and NCSU has rallied in the second half of the year, making the Wolfpack an easy choice.

3:30:

Alabama @ Auburn (CBS): While this will likely be closer than the line, I just can't really imagine a scenario where Auburn can win this game.
Oregon State @ Oregon (ABC/ESPN2): It's the Civil War! This is an underrated rivalry game, but the Beavers have just had an awful time of it this year. I really like the Ducks.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): UVA has exceeded every expectation for this year. While VPI still had legitimate offensive issues, it's hard to see how UVA will prevail.
Pennsylvania State @ Wisconsin (ESPN): Well, Penn State has exceeded at least my expectations these past couple of weeks. But Wisconsin has regained at least some offensive swagger, though they were a little slow to really get going against Illinois last week. However, I just can't see how Penn State's offense can keep up.
Missouri vs. Kansas (@Kansas City, MO; FSN): Probably one of the last meetings of these two bitter rivals, but this KU team is simply awful. Mizzou all the way.
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest (ESPNU): Vandy needs this to get bowl eligible, and for me it's a difficult call to make. Both of these teams are undermanned the vast majority of the time, so it's hard to say what will happen when they meet each other. I'm leaning toward Vandy though.
East Carolina @ Marshall (CBSS): The winner goes to a bowl game. The loser doesn't. I think it'll be ECU heading off to some far-flung C-USA bowl game.
Illinois @ Minnesota (BTN): It would be the most Ron Zook thing ever for them to lose to Minnesota, right? I'll go with that.
Purdue @ Indiana (BTN): This is rivalry game, of sorts. Another game where neither team is very good but Indiana is just awful. I like the Boilermakers.
Duke @ North Carolina (ACC): Duke and UNC meet once again, but it'll be another couple of months before they meet in a fashion anyone in the Raleigh-Durham area really cares about. I'll take the 'Heels.

7:00:

Florida State @ Florida (ESPN2): Florida can't score, but sort of plays defense. FSU, meanwhile, just suffered a bad loss to Virginia. Provided FSU actually shows up for this one, though, I have to take the Seminoles here.
Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): Houston Nutt's tenure at Ole Miss will not go out with a bang, but with a whimper.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor (@Arlington, TX; FSN): Robert Griffin the III singlehandedly lead Baylor to their biggest victory ever against Oklahoma. Provided he's not looking forward to a trip to Manhattan (New York, that is) he should have considerably less trouble against the Red Raiders.

7:30: Washington State @ Washington (Versus): It's the Apple Cup once again! Udub lost to Oregon State somehow last weekend, but I have a hard time figuring out exactly how they could lose to equally morbund Wazzou. I like the Huskies here.

7:45: Clemson @ South Carolina (ESPN): I've been grappling with how to pick this game all week. South Carolina is now an offensive non-entity, but Clemson has lost two of their last three, and the third was a last-second FG win over Wake Forest. I'm sitting here in my family's living literally scratching my head over my head over this. I think this is basically a toss-up. If Clemson shows up, then they have the offensive firepower to win. However, based on the last few weeks I have to think this will be a defensive struggle that favors the Gamecocks.

8:00: Notre Dame @ Stanford (ABC): ND may put up a fight, but I really like Andrew Luck and Stanford here.

10:00: California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (FSN): Boy howdy USC has looked good the last couple weeks haven't they? And besides, it'll make for good trivia for UCLA to represent the Pac-12 South next week at 6-6 and likely to be multiple touchdown underdogs.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/25

2011-11-25T11:30:00.000-08:00

Posting this video has been a tradition that I’ve done for each of the past three years here. With the recent death of Larry Munson, however, I debated whether not doing so again this year would be in good taste.

I’ve thought about it for a few days and come to the following conclusion: he was beloved by UGA fans for telling it like was, and all this video really captures is one of the very few times in the past 40 years in which his team has been underdogs to Tech.

And, in the end, I’m sure he’s not the only one who thought they were getting beat “like we were Wake Forest or Maryland or somebody”.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/23

2011-11-22T23:19:00.000-08:00

First, I just rediscovered this gem of an animated GIF from September and had to bring it back:

(From RjTheMetalhead, purveyor of fine single and multi-frame images.) Anyway, hoping to see a lot of that this weekend.

With that out of the way, let's talk about Uga. No, not the school, the dog. New breed standards were recently developed for the English bulldog, and Uga's breeders aren't happy about that:

"I don't care what the British do," said Sonny Seiler, owner of the bulldog line that has become the most celebrated sports mascot in the United States.
Critics in England and in the United States, however, said breeders have transformed bulldogs and some other dog breeds into genetic monstrosities prone to chronic disease and sometimes early death.

This what the original bulldog mascot, Yale's Handsome Dan, looked like in 1890:

The underbite is there, but notice the overall lack of wrinkles and muscular frame. I'd paste an actual Uga here, but you've probably seen them before and if you haven't: remember that the past few Ugas were not terribly mobile and generally spent most of their times at the game laying on a block of ice due to respiratory issues. There's also been the notable short lifespan of the previous two. The current Uga, of course, isn't actually an Uga because he's not nearly in-bred enough and actually has a brown spot (because Ugas also have to have a perfectly white coat). Even by today's degraded standards, other Bulldog mascots (think Miss State and the current stand-in for UGA) look relative healthy compared to the last few Ugas.

I swear, these "inbred redneck" jokes just about write themselves.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

2011-11-22T14:19:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Miami @ Ohio (ESPN2): Ohio has already sealed up the MAC East, but nonetheless shouldn't overlook their in-state rivals in Miami. I like the Bobcats here.

Thursday
8:00: Texas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN): I'm not sure what Texas fans were expecting this year, though they have probably found this season frustrating nonetheless. Texas A&M fans, though, well, suffice it to say I'm not sure they expected to lose 2 games, much less 5. The culprit has been defense, especially their well-publicized issues holding a double-digit lead in the the second halves of games. That said, can the Longhorns even generate enough points to have a second half lead, much less a double-digit one? In their last two games against Mizzou and Kansas State Texas has only scored 18 points. Scoring has not been the issue for the Aggies. I wasn't sure about this earlier, but now I just don't know how Texas is going to score enough points to win this game.

Friday
11:00:

Louisville @ South Florida (ESPN2): The Big East will trend toward any scenario that makes there conference tiebreaker more complicated, so Louisville basically guaranteed to win this game.
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): Toledo needs a EMU victory here to have a shot at the MAC West, but I don't think they're going to get it.

Noon:

Iowa @ Nebraska (ABC): ALL HAIL THE CORN BOWL. No, really. That said, I think the Huskers can get back on track in the game and earn the world's first trophy that features REAL CORN. (Just don't tell Artur Boruc.)
Houston @ Tulsa (FSN): Tulsa may be the most formidable obstacle Houston has played to date, if for no other reason than because they're the first team they've played that can keep up with them on offense. Of course, with a BCS now on the line for the Cougars, there's just that much added pressure. I still like them to prevail, but this will be their stiffest test of the year, I think.

2:30: Arkansas @ Louisiana State (CBS): I've been saying this all year: the Razorbacks feature probably the only truly competent offense in the SEC. No other team in the SEC has been able to put up 30 as often against quality opponents. The problem is, the best team they've played so far, Alabama, held them to just 14. LSU's defense is as good as Bama's if not better. The question for LSU is, of course, the offense. They've been more potent this year, but the whole operation feels as though it's just a few Jordan Jefferson fumbles or Jarret Lee interceptions away from total disaster. Do I think this disaster will occur in Baton Rouge Friday afternoon? No, probably not. This game is usually pretty great though, and comes highly recommended from me.

3:30:

Boston College @ Miami (ABC): Speaking of total disasters, if the Miami locker room is really disappointed about the Canes not going to a bowl game that's exactly what this could turn into. Then again, I'm not convinced BC could score enough points to win this game even Miami didn't even come out on defense at all.
Colorado @ Utah (FSN): Fun fact: Utah now has the inside track to win the Pac-12 South. Yeah. They should be able to beat a Colorado team that just lost 45-6 to UCLA.

7:00:

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (ESPN): It's the Backyard Brawl! And maybe for the last time in awhile. Against, for maximum Big East chaos I think WVU needs to win for the 4-way tie to be preserved, so that's probably what will happen.
Texas-El Paso @ Central Florida (CBSS): I have UTEP winning for the purposes of my bowl predictions, so, yeah, I guess I'll take the Miners here.

10:15: California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Cal has been awful on the road this year, with their only such win a 36-33 overtime win against a Colorado team that is usually paired with adjectives like "hapless". Therefore, I have to go with the increasingly, erm, hapless Sun Devils here.

Have a good Turkey Day and weekend predictions will go up on Friday!

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 6

2011-11-21T14:18:00.001-08:00

Chaos reigned supreme last weekend. Now we stare down the barrel as someone will most likely play someone they already played in the BCS Championship Game. Remember folks, every game counts, unless it doesn’t.

I’m writing this as I go. Since this is an electronic document I could, of course, actually just move things around to their customary order first, but that would be too easy. So let’s start off with the little guys. The final predictions will be up at their usual place.

Mid-majors
The first announcements of the year that I saw where that UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State have accepted bids to the New Orleans and godaddy.com bowls, respectively. I also have FIU and Western Kentucky qualifying as well.

BYU also formally accepted its bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.

Hawaii could’ve gained eligibility but only managed to put up 21 points against one of the worse defenses in college football. Since they play 13 games, they must have a winning record, and so at 5-6 now they will need to beat Tulane (extremely doable) and BYU. While they can beat BYU, I don’t think they will. Elsewhere in the WAC, Nevada lost a pivotal home matchup to Louisiana Tech, but that may not really matter that much as the WAC moves teams around based on what they think will work best for their games. Therefore, I still sent Nevada to the poinsettia, LaTech to Boise, and 6-6 Utah State to Hawaii.

In the MAC, I don’t see Kent State or Eastern Michigan winning their final games to get eligible. Ohio has already clinched the MAC East, and I think they will go ahead and play Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. The MAC champion goes to the godaddy.com bowl, but I always figure it’s best for a MAC team to actually play in the Midwest. Nonetheless, I’m guessing Ohio will go down to Mobile, NIU will go to Detroit, and I’ll pick Toledo to go out to Boise. That leaves Temple, Ball State, and Western Michigan as eagerly anticipating at-large bids elsewhere, which should materialize.

The Mountain West is going about how one would expect now that Boise is not going to the BCS. TCU will win the conference even if they sleepwalk through the UNLV game and get themselves an invite to Vegas. Boise will be a slam dunk for the Poinsettia unless an utter collapse elsewhere in the BCS occurs and they get invited as an at-large. Then it comes down to the Independence Bowl, which will likely have to choose between Wyoming and San Diego State. (Air Force should get eligible, but they do need to beat Colorado State Saturday since they played 2 DI-AA teams this year.) I’m just going to go in standings order for now (Wyoming to Independence, SDSU to New Mexico), leaving Air Force as a potential at-large for later.
Since it’s next on my list, the other two service academies will not be bowling this year after Navy’s loss to San Jose State. Notre Dame will be bowling somewhere, and I think it’s likely that somewhere will be the Champs Sports Bowl (otherwise, it will be the Pinstripe Bowl).

In Conference USA, East Carolina and Marshall will play this weekend for a bowl bid, and I like ECU in that game. Southern Mississippi, despite an inexplicable loss to UAB, should clinch the division. Houston will win the conference, of course, and should be in line for a BCS bowl bid, but they will need to beat Tulsa Saturday and USM next week to clinch it for sure. I have UTEP beating UCF Saturday to get to 6-6, giving us 6 total C-USA teams. I like USM to the Liberty bowl, but after that it’s all guesswork. C-USA does not explicitly order their bids, so I look at the payouts, with the TicketCity being the highest, followed by the Hawaii Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl. The New Orleans and Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl sit at the bottom. I’ll go ahead and send Tulsa to the TicketCity and SMU to the hometown Armed Forces (literally, as it’s at their home stadium). That leaves us 2 6-6 teams for 3 bowls. Let’s pencil in ECU to go to Hawaii and UTEP to St. Petersburg, leaving us needing another team in New Orleans.

BCS
A LSU-Alabama rematch seems nearly inevitable at this point, unless all hell breaks even more loose this weekend. I highly dislike the idea of the rematch, after all, the college football is regular seasons is so short it’s not really interesting for teams to play each other twice. This year, more than ever, shows how difficult it is to resolve differences between teams that play vastly different schedules over only 12 games, and why we really need a playoff.

In the Rose, I’ve got ahead and put in Wisconsin and Oregon, though both will need to play conference championship games this year. For the other autobids, I’ve put in Oklahoma State to the Fiesta and Virginia Tech to the Orange.

The Sugar gets the first at-large pick because it lost its autobid champion to the national title game. This is where it gets tough, though. Unless some other weird stuff happens, the SEC can’t get a third team into the BCS, which limits the sort of teams that the Sugar typically picks. I will go ahead and put in Kansas State there, since Oklahoma I have Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State this weekend. (Note that if Bedlam goes the other way around, both teams could still get into the BCS.) Now the Fiesta has a difficult choice, but I think the area’s NFL fans will flock to see Andrew Luck, so I will put Stanford in there. Now we still have to put whoever the heck is going twin the Big East as well as Houston somewhere. Due to proximity, I figure the Sugar will fall on that sword and take the Cougars. I have the Big East finishing in a 4-way tie for first, so I’m taking West Virginia out of that group.

ACC
Even with their inexplicable loss to NC State blowing their BCS hopes, Clemson will likely still be attractive enough for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Following that, there are 4 ACC teams that will finish 5-3 (most likely): Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. Of this group, FSU is probably the most attractive for the Champs Sports at the ACC #3 slot. Also, if they take Notre Dame is creates a huge “name” matchup. ACC #4 is the Sun Bowl and I think it’s likely GT will end up there. The Belk Bowl will probably use its option to take a 4-4 NC State team over UVA and Wake, but the Music City will probably have no issues with taking UVA. (This is where I had Miami going previously, but with their announcement that they won’t accept a bowl bid it’s sort of a moot point now.) With Carolina at 3-5, this means Wake can’t fall any farther than the Independence Bowl, with the Tar Heels then ending up in DC for the Military Bowl.

Big 12
If Oklahoma doesn’t make a BCS game, they will be a very obvious candidate for the Cotton Bowl. At this point, the Alamo will probably have no choice but to take Baylor. This leaves the rest of the 7-5-/6-6 Big 12 misfits to fight over the remaining bids. I’ll go ahead and put Texas in the Insight Bowl and Missouri in the Holiday, leaving TAMU to the Car Care Bowl (of Texas) and Iowa State to the Pinstripe.

Big East
Again: I really hate picking the Big East. As I said above, I have 4 teams finishing with a 5-2 conference record currently. Since the Champs will probably take Notre Dame, that leaves the next selection to the Belk Bowl, where I guess Cincy has the best chance of going except that they already played NC State this year, so I’ll switch that to Louisville instead. Rutgers likes to think of themselves as “New York City’s college football team” so I’ll send them to the Pinstripe. I’ll pencil Cincy in for the Compass Bowl and so that leaves only Pitt for the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s.

Big Ten
I’m not sure the Big Ten will get two teams into the BCS this year. If they do, it will be Michigan. Since Michigan State will suffer a third loss in the Big Ten title game they won’t likely be eligible, which means Michigan could sneak into the top 14. If they don’t, the Capital One Bowl is good consolation prize, especially after the past few years. Fret not, Sparty supporters, as I just have them landing softly in the Outback Bowl. From there, I’m sure the Insight Bowl would love to match Nebraska back up with Texas, and given the Gator Bowl’s scruples I doubt they would hesitate to take Penn State. Iowa’s large traveling fanbase should be a slam dunk for the Car Care Bowl (of Texas!). Form there, there’s a bevy of unattractive options at 6-6 and 7-5, such as Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois. The only two bowls left are the TicketCity Bowl and Little Ceasar’s Pizza Bowl, so I’ll go ahead and take the biggest “names” for those two, with the Buckeyes going to Dallas and Illinois to Detroit, leaving Purdue and Northwestern to fend for themselves.

Pac-12
With Oregon and Stanford in the BCS and USC ineligible, the picture looks pretty bleak if you’re a bowl affiliated with the Pac-12. I actually have Utah winning the Pac-12 South and getting to an 8-4 record, so you know what, I’ll go ahead and put them in the Alamo. The Holiday is next up. I want to put Washington there but they went to San Diego last year. UCLA is also 5-4 in conference but they’re also actually awful and may fire their coach after the season. I’ll go ahead and put them there though and send Washington El Paso. That leaves me 6-6 Arizona State and Cal, so I’ll send the Sun Devils to Vegas and let the Bears stay in their temporary home for the Fight Hunger Bowl.

SEC
Arkansas is the jewel of the remaining SEC teams and will certainly end up in the Capital One Bowl. Of course, that means we have to figure out someone else to send to the Cotton Bowl. That’ll be between Georgia and South Carolina most likely, so I’ll put UGA in the Outback and send the Gamecocks to Dallas. Auburn’s the only team left at this point with a winning record, so I’ll set up Tigers-Tigers in the Chick-fil-a. The Gator is the next up, and well, it’s so easy to put the Gators there. (Almost… too easy.) I’ll go ahead and put the Vols in the Music City, leaving us 2 teams and bowls! Memphis is basically the capital of Mississippi anyway, so that makes Miss State a natural fit for the Liberty and relegates Vandy to the Compass.

At-large Resolution
At this point, I still need four teams for the New Mexico, New Orleans, Military, and Fight Hunger Bowls. Northwestern and Purdue will probably go somewhere, so I’ll put Northwestern in the Military and Purdue in the Fight Hunger. I figure 8-4 Temple will get a bid somewhere, so let’s go with the New Orleans Bowl. That leaves us the New Mexico bowl… this is a guess, but I’ll go ahead and put 8-4 FIU there.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/20

2011-11-20T11:30:00.000-08:00

It is time, once again, for To Hell With Georgia week here.

As usual, this opening message will be short, and sweet. I will leave you with one succinct thought: To Hell With Georgia.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

2011-11-19T03:28:00.000-08:00

Before we begin: what the heck, Oklahoma State? With that out of the way...

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Nebraska @ Michigan (ESPN): This could well be the most interesting game of the weekend, in terms of competitiveness. I think, however, Michigan's ability to play some semblance of a defense (imagine saying that any of the past three years) will allow them to prevail in the end.
Wisconsin @ Illinois (ESPN2): Dusting themselves off after two straight losses knocked them out of the nation title picture, the Badgers have got their offense rolling again. Meanwhile, Ron Zook is walking out of press conferences. I like the Badgers.
Kansas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): If there's one team TAMU probably won't blow a double-digit second half lead to, it's Kansas.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Speaking of walking out of press conferences, that's what I'm tempting to do anytime anyone asks me to make sense of the Big East. I'll take the Bearcats out of a sense of hope and desperation.
Indiana @ Michigan State (BTN): Three low-level Big Ten games! Sparty looks to preserve its lead in the Legends division, which they should do easily.
Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): Minnesota's shown flashes of maybe not being a complete doormat these last few weeks, but Northwestern should still win in the end.
Iowa @ Purdue (BTN): Outside of their shocking win over Ohio State, Purdue hasn't really shown they can score any points. Iowa doesn't score a lot but it should be enough.
Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): Will the dogs suffer a letdown against the SEC's second worst team? No, probably not. Unfortunately.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Duke (ACC): Well, what can I say about the Virginia Tech game that hasn't been said? Yeah, that's what I thought.
This will be the 79th meeting of the Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils. Duke is actually Tech's third most-often played team, behind Auburn (92 games) and Georgia (105). The only other teams Tech has met even more than 50 times are Clemson (76) and Alabama (52). Somewhat surprisingly, the Jackets still sport a better winning percentage against Clemson (65.8%) than Duke (60.9%). However, while the Clemson series has been mostly even since the early 70's, the Duke series has not been. After Georgia Tech's low-point in the 70's and early-80's, the series has been all Tech - Duke has only won twice since 1990.
Duke is not the ACC's most awful team this year - that honor lies with Boston College. However, that doesn't mean the Jackets can overlook them. One need look no further than Ames, Iowa after the events of last night to remember that anything can happen on any day in college football. Virginia Tech came out against the Blue Devils and, were it not for 3 missed FGs, could have nearly lost the game. It will be critical for Tech to be on their game and press their advantage against one of the few teams they will are physically superior than. Other than special teams, Tech's Achilles's heel this year has been pass defense. After a heroic effort in the Clemson game, Virginia Tech continually got behind our secondary and was able to stretch the defense. Duke is 27th in the country in passing yards, which is partially due to necessity. However, Sean Renfree is a decent quarterback who can burn us pretty easily if the secondary allows him to.

3:00:

Tulsa @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): UTEP is up to its old tricks again - lose to Rice one week, beat East Carolina the next. That said, Tulsa should have little trouble dissecting them.
Maryland @ Wake Forest (ACC/FSN): I think we can pretty safely call Maryland awful at this point. Wake Forest should get their sixth win here.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (CBS): Miss State should be able to score, but they just... can't. One of my favorite football writers said on Twitter last weekend that he thinks Dan Mullen tries to get too "cute" with the Urban Meyer-style spread offense, and I'm inclined to agree. Arkansas, meanwhile, fields one of the few actual offenses in the SEC and should win easily as long as they're not looking forward their huge showdown with LSU next Friday.
Texas Tech @ Missouri (ABC): As everyone on the Internet is saying, Texas Tech's victory over Oklahoma is becoming more and more inexplicable by the week. In their three games since then, they have been outscored 159-33. It wasn't just Oklahoma State, either - Iowa State put up 41, and Texas's moribund offense managed 52. Mizzou should win easily, even without Gary Pinkel on the sidelines due to his extremely ill-advised trip to Chili's.
Clemson @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN): What better way to follow up a loss to the worst team in the ACC than by an explicable upset over Clemson? Yeah.. I'm not seeing it either. Though after Wake the Tigers are almost just begging to lose again, aren't they?
Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): Okay yes Ohio State may have just lost to Purdue but still it's hard to imagine Penn State winning any more games this year.
Southern Methodist @ Houston (FSN): Well, based on the number of times I've said "win easily" so far it's not hard to see why Gameday decided to make its annual mid-major trip out to Houston this weekend. And that was before Houston because the last remaining undefeated mid-major last weekend, and before the events last night that made them one of the only two remaining undefeated teams in the country. Meanwhile, SMU has lost to the other two decent C-USA teams it has played by pretty wide margins and just lost to Navy last week. So... this may end up being a blowout too.
Miami @ South Florida (ESPNU): One of these schools is actually in a geographic region I would call "south Florida" and it's not the one named "South Florida". With that out of the way, USF did nothing between its upset of Notre Dame the first weekend of the year and beating Syracuse last weekend. I would expect them to get right back on the losing side of the ledger in this one, though.
Colorado State @ Texas Christian (Versus): The Missed Field Goal Heard 'Round College football resonated and wide (... right) last weekend, but now TCU has to keep up their 5 game winning streak against the less notable segments of the Mountain West in order to clinch their last mid-major conference title.

4:00: Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC): I would say that BC is probably the single worst team on Notre Dame's schedule this year, and keep in mind this is a schedule that includes Purdue, Navy, and Maryland. They should win easily.

7:00:

Louisiana State @ Mississippi (ESPN): The SEC's two most colorful coaching personalities clash in what should be a LSU rout, but does Houston Nutt have one last trick up his sleeve? (I.e., "lose to Louisiana Tech and then suspend 3 of your offensive skill position starters for the game and win".) Well, no, probably not, but if Ole Miss does win the final score will be something like 9-8.
Central Florida @ East Carolina (FSN): This is been a down year for both teams, but at least ECU managed to beat UAB. (Yes, I know they just upset Southern Miss.)
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPNU): Let this sink in: Vanderbilt is favored to beat Tennessee. But I still don't know if I can pick the 'Dores because the last time Vandy was supposed to win this game they didn't. My heart says Vandy but my brain says Vols, so let's go with the latter.

7:30:

Virginia @ Florida State (ESPN2): Both of these teams have beaten Miami, which says something but I'm not entirely sure what. Nonetheless, FSU has their offensive mojo back and Virginia is not Wake Forest so the Seminoles should come out with a win.
Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): Note: even with a 25-point loss to Utah last weekend, the Bruins still have a shot to win the Pac-12 South. That said, Utah is better than Colorado, I'm pretty sure. This will be a terrible, sloppy, "defensive struggle" sort of a game but UCLA should still win and Rick Neuheisel will probably still get fired.

8:00:

Southern California @ Oregon (ABC): Oregon established pretty firmly last weekend that they are, in fact, still the team to beat in the Pac-12. USC has the talent to compete, but not the depth to stay with the Ducks. Expect the usual Oregon blueprint against good teams: a close first half followed by the Ducks simply wearing out the opposing defenses in the second half.
Oklahoma @ Baylor (ABC): Welcome back to the BCS title hunt, Sooners! Okay, yes, now beating Oklahoma State won't have the cachet it used to. Anyway, Baylor's all-everything QB Robert Griffin III will try his best to singlehandedly keep the Bears in this one but I just don't see how it can be enough against the Sooners.
Kansas State @ Texas (FX): Okay yes they didn't play in 2008 and 2009 but Kansas State has won three straight against Texas. I'm not sure if it's an upset at this point, but K-State has shown they can at least run with TAMU and Oklahoma State, and unlike Texas, those teams actually can play offense! So I'm taking the Wildcats.
Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): Boise once again finds itself picking up the pieces after a game gone horribly wrong, made even more painful by Oklahoma State's loss last night. San Diego State is not exactly chopped liver, but this is not last year's fiesty version either. I suspect the Broncos are once again the sort of team that picks up the pieces by laying waste to their next opponent, so I'll take them here.

10:15:

California @ Stanford (ESPN): The Big Game! Stanford Stadium is about 5 miles from my apartment out here, but by the time you read this I'll be more like 2000 miles away. Anyway, speaking of picking up the pieces from a bad loss, you really have to like Andrew Luck and company in this one, right?
New Mexico State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): I'll confess I don't know that much about BYU, but they don't have one of the worst defense in the country, in stark contrast to Fresno State will let these Aggies put up 48 last weekend. So, yeah, I'll the Stormin' Mormons here.

And that's that. Bowl predictions may be delayed this weekend due to chaos.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 5

2011-11-15T12:00:00.000-08:00

Here you go. This'll be another quick post, though.

Also, please appreciate I spent a lot of time fixing the HTML for the predictions page so the file is about half the size of what it's been in the past, which means you can now load the predictions even more quickly regardless of what platform you use to view them.

BCS: I expected Stanford to lose, so I sort have been accounting for that. However, I didn't really expect Boise to blow their shot again, so mid-major autobid now falls to Case Keenum and Co. in Houston. If Oklahoma State or, God forbid, LSU lose? Then I have no idea. I really don't want to see a rematch, and personally if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State they may well be the best one loss team in the land - especially as it becomes easier to chalk up their loss to TTU as a complete and utter fluke.
ACC: Things again went pretty much according to plan here, and I still have a surplus of ACC teams.
Big East: There is no plan here. The Big East is the opposite of a plan. Much like matter and anti-matter, if the Big East and Plans ever met it they would cancel each other out and likely result in a serious explosion.
Big Ten: I guess Wisconsin will win? Who knows? Anyway this is pretty much a one-bid league this year. I actually have both Purdue and Northwestern making bowl games, but I had to put them in as at-larges for bowls that can't fill their slots.
Big 12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely both in if everything goes according to plan. But in what order?
Pac-12: I have both Oregon and Stanford in, as this seems like it'll be an especially dire year for the BCS at-large pool. The Pac-12 bowl teams pool is shallow as well, but it would be interesting to see how bad UCLA would lose to TCU.
SEC: I went ahead and put Vandy up to the vaunted 6-6 mark, but I don't think even the hometown Music City Bowl would take them over the fervent fans of Miss State.
Everyone else: Notre Dame seems to me to be on a collision course to get a pretty good "name" game in the Champs Sports Bowl. If you're wondering about Boise, they could still get in, but they need TCU to lose twice because according to the rules you need to be a conference champ to get in as an at-large mid-major team. (It's right there on the page, even!)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

2011-11-11T20:49:00.000-08:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Florida @ South Carolina (CBS): Why is this game on CBS? Who knows! Suffice it to say, if this game ends up 9-6 it will be a pretty safe bet to chalk it up to offensive ineptitude than to defense. Florida has speed but no apparent idea of how to use it, while South Carolina is decimated by injuries, suspensions, and dismissals. In the end, though, I still expect the Gamecocks to prevail.
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ABC): I think we pretty thoroughly know the answer to which Texas Tech team showed up against Oklahoma: not the one that has showed up for their other 8 games. Cowboys roll.
West Virginia @ Cincinnati (ABC): Flip a coin. The coin has about as much of an idea about the Big East as I do at this point. I'll take Cincy for the sake of my bowl predictions.
Texas @ Missouri (FX): I don't think either TAMU or Mizzoui's Big 12 finales are going quite how they expected. Texas should get one last parting shot.
Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): All I can say about this is: Nebraska has advantages both on the field and off, losses to Northwestern notwithstanding.
Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): The Big Ten is almost as befuddling as the Big East. I, uh, I'll take Sparty here I guess?
Marshall @ Tulsa (FSN): Marshall doesn't score a lot and can give up points in bunches. Not good things against Tulsa.
Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPNU): This Wake team can bite you, but the Tigers shouldn't really have any issues.
Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Buckeyes, I guess.
Rice @ Northwestern (BTN): This is not a good Rice team. Northwestern should roll.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): It's your yearly SEC East slapfight! Both enter at 4-5, but Vandy has generally at least been able to hang with the SEC powers this year while Kentucky has, for the most part, been getting blown out. I like the Dores to get to 5-5.

12:30: North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): This BC team is just plain hapless. Wolfpack should roll.

3:00: Duke @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): Virginia Tech can clinch the Coastal now with a UVA loss, but despite me being generally down on UVA I don't think they'll lose to Duke.

3:30:

Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): I personally thought that putting Texas A&M in the SEC East is really lame. The only reason, it appears to me, that the SEC has "designated rivals" is because Alabama wants to play Tennessee every year and Auburn wants to play UGA every year. Why not just move Auburn and Alabama to the East and scrap the designated rivals thing altogether? It'll be made up for because then the divisions will cycle through each other more quickly. Anyway, I guess I have to take Georgia here.
Miami @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN): Boy, this is sure isn't what it used to be, eh? FSU should roll.
Michigan @ Illinois (ABC/ESPN): Well, Michigan looks to regain its offensive mojo once again. Luckily for them, Illinois has been especially hapless as of late.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Kansas State (ABC): TAMU looks suddenly vulnerable defensively, but I'm not really sure K-State has the offensive talent to take advantage. Nonetheless, TAMU's second half woes are well documented at this point and so only with some hesitation I'm picking them.
Navy @ Southern Methodist (FSN): SMU has looked pretty good against the teams they've been expected to beat whilst getting clobbered by the powers of Conference USA. Meanwhile, Navy just hasn't been, well, good this year at all. I like the Mustangs here.
Texas Christian @ Boise State (Versus): It's kind of funny that the Mountain West bent over backward to move this game from Fort Worth to Boise in response to TCU's then-move to the Big East. In the meantime, Boise is now probably going to move to the Big East, so in the end it sort really didn't matter. Either way, I don't really like TCU this year at all - so I'll take Boise to continue their run.
Rutgers vs. Army (@New York, NY; CBSS): Because the world needs more football games at baseball stadiums! Rutger's never ending quest to become New York City's college football team continues as they should probably win easily over Army.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota's shown some signs of life over the past couple of weeks, but I can't really comprehend how they can beat Wisconsin.

3:45: Washington @ Southern California (FX): U-dub put forth a valiant effort against Oregon last weekend. Will a valiant effort be enough against USC, though? I'm not really sure. I like the Trojans a lot at this point, though their lack of depth is always a concern.

6:00: Tennessee @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Tennessee has no offense. Like, I think they just let the other team play offense the whole time and hope to run back punt returns and interceptions. This is not a good recipe against what looks like the most competent offense in the SEC.

7:00: Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): I think LSU's going to win this one. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but...

7:30:

Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss might not win this one. After all, we need Houston Nutt's last ride around the SEC to be as hilarious as possible, and so they need to be as bad as possible when they play LSU next weekend. And, with losses to Miss State and Southern Miss already, can LaTech afford to go 0-3 against the state of Mississippi? I think not. Bulldogs maybe pull off the upset. Probably. Well, perhaps.
Maryland vs. Notre Dame (@Landover, MD; NBC): I meant to look up if this was really a neutral site game or just a Maryland home game played over in Landover. Either way, I like the Irish here as Randy Esdall's dismantling effort continues. (I assume that's the oppose of a rebuilding effort, right?)

7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Yeah... yeah... Alabama will rain fire down upon the Bulldogs on this night, and blow them out... 24-3.

8:00:

Oregon @ Stanford (ABC): Okay, here's the main event folks. And, frankly, all season I've liked the Ducks better. Stanford's year should have been last year, when they were more well-rounded on both sides of the ball. Stanford has been challenged really only once all year, when they needed Andrew Luck to just about singlehandedly beat USC. Now, if you had to pick a guy who do that for you, you could could certainly do worse than Andrew Luck. But I just don't think it will be enough against Oregon.
Central Florida @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): UCF picked a good week to have a good old-fashioned recruiting scandal. Regardless, USM should continue their march to the C-USA title game.

9:15: Idaho @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Idaho is not very good and stuff. The BYU team isn't exactly awe-inspiring or anything but they should still win easily.

10:15: Hawaii @ Nevada (ESPNU): Now here's the WAC-tion you want right here. Expect points, and lots of them, but also expect the Wolfpack to emerge victorious at the end.

10:30: Arizona State @ Washington State (Versus): Arizona State losing to UCLA may be one of the more inexplicable upsets of the year. Will Sun Devils get upset again in Pullman? Well, probably not.

This Week in College Football: Week 11

2011-11-08T20:01:00.000-08:00

A special edition, looking at the weekday games for this week.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
(Just pretend this was posted on time for these games.)
8:00:

Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green (ESPN2): The weather may be getting colder, but rest assured the MACtion is just heating up. Both of the teams involved last week's torrid 63-60 affair return tonight, but this time with different partners. However, Bowling Green has not displayed the same proficiency in the offensive arts as NIU has, which is likely bad news for the home team here.
Western Michigan @ Toledo (ESPNU): Now, if you're looking for a repeat of last week's game then this is the place to be, most likely. That said, the Rockets looked pretty unstoppable in the MAC until they ran into NIU, so I'll go with them.

Wednesday
8:00: Miami @ Temple (ESPN): The MACtion isn't just confined to Tuesday nights, though. Oh no. Miami is dead last in the country in rushing, but rest assured they can throw it around, though against the only solid MAC team they've played (Toledo) they lost 49-28. Temple is the opposite - yes, they've lost to Toledo as well, but they are 8th in the country in rushing but 115th in passing. Ohio exploded for an unheard of 35 points against the Owls last weekend, so we may be in for more scoring than Temple's stingy 12.8 points allowed per game may make you think. I still like the Owls though.

Thursday
7:30: Ohio @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Remember, Central Michigan is the bad directional Michigan this year. Bobcats should roll.

8:00:

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): [N.B.: "Tech" refers to Georgia Tech here. -ed] Every year there's been a Coastal Division of the ACC, there's been this game. And the winner of this game has been the Coastal Division champ. Twice has the good Tech won this one. The 2006 game I remember because my old cell phone still has a text message from my brother on September 30, 2006 on it: "Omg 21-0 gt" - I got said text because I was out of town that Saturday and wasn't able to watch but the last 10 minutes or so of the game.
The marbles are once again on the line with those one - though it should be noted due to GT's loss to Virginia that Tech cannot clinch without another Virginia loss. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, which may well not be what Tech needed because the worst thing that happened in that Clemson game was halftime. (Well, other than the offsides non-call.)
In way, these teams could not be farther apart going into the game, in terms of the game they played going into this. Georgia Tech played their best game since 2009 against Clemson, dominating in all phases in the game. VPI meanwhile struggled to put points on the board against Duke. The Blue Devils missed three FGs as well, any two of which could've allowed them to pull off the upset.
Not that it matters, of course. Going into a Thursday night game in Atlanta is, objectively, much more exciting than going into Wallace Wade Stadium at any time. Add in the ticket to a rematch against Clemson being on the line and that puts together a recipe for a huge game. Who will win? I don't know. I like our chances if we play like we did against Clemson, but the odds us playing as good as we did against the Tigers and VPI playing as bad as they did against the Blue Devils is low, as I just said.
It will come down to the usual things: defense and special teams. Special teams have been a tremendous concern for Georgia Tech this year, while it looks like Beamerball has been back in full force in Blacksburg. Even if Tech managers to avoid punting or kicking field goals (the ideal scenario), kickoff coverage has still been horrendous outside the Clemson game. The Georgia Tech defense, meanwhile, played its best game since John Tenuta was let go after 2007. They were able to confuse Tajh Boyd with a variety of zone and corner blitzes, which worked mainly because the secondary (and Jamea Thomas especially) played the games of their lives out on the Isles of Man Coverage. It feels funny to type this when you consider that Clemson still ran up nearly 400 yards of offense, but outside of one Sammy Watkins TD catch their offense was kept in check. (17 points was, and probably will remain, Clemson's lowest point total of the season.) The other key: they weren't on the field that much. The GT offense held on the to the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game, including the soul-sucking nine minute drive in the fourth quarter that saw Clemson get the ball back down two scores with two minutes to go.
Suffice it to say, I think the Jackets will need similar heroics to prevail over the Hokies.
Houston @ Tulane (CBSS): Houston should be able to name its own score against the hapless Green Wave.

Friday
8:00: South Florida @ Syracuse (ESPN2): USF has had a very symmetric season, but not in a good way: they started off with four straight (including an increasingly more inexplicably upset of Notre Dame) and now have dropped four straight. Inexplicable is a pretty excellent word to describe the Big East as a whole, though. The Orange have dropped two straight after their dominating upset over West Virginia and sits at the precipice of bowl eligibility. They'll probably get it, but the problem is when? I say here, most likely, because I've really given up on trying to predict anything about the Big East - the 'Cuse could lose this one and go knock off Cincinnati next week, which, let's face it, is probably the most likely scenario.

Enjoy the rest of your week, and see if you can't catch the tail end of the Toledo-WMU game. That looks like a good one. Otherwise, I'll be back with Saturday's games sometime Friday or Saturday.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 4

2011-11-07T03:08:00.000-08:00

When will I ever learn that "it'll probably be easier this week" is pretty much a surefire way to make sure that isn't the case?

Let's get down to business and see why. You can follow along with the picks in their usual place.

BCS
The BCS was the single hardest thing to pick this week. With the chaos in the Big Ten, figuring out the last team into the BCS picture was extremely difficult. Here's why.

Currently, I still have LSU and Oklahoma State running the table. I am not entirely convinced about the latter but trying to figure out which 1-loss team is most worthy, or if Boise State is, is even more difficult to figure out. (If Stanford beats Oregon this weekend, that will make my job easier.) I immediately slot Alabama into LSU's vacated Sugar Bowl spot but even figuring out who will replace Oklahoma State in the Fiesta is difficult. I have the following automatic bids: LSU (BCS #1), Oklahoma State (BCS #2), Boise State (MWC champion ranked in top 12), Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Wisconsin (Big Ten champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Cincinnati (Big East champ). This accounts for 7 of the 10 available BCS bids. Currently, I only have 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams (not counting Houston), and the only two I didn't mention above are Alabama and Stanford. Due to the Andrew Luck effect, I assume Stanford will be a desirable at-large team and thus will get Oklahoma State's Fiesta Bowl bid.

Now, at this point the only remaining bids are the 3 at-large bids in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. The selections go in that order. There are two remaining automatic qualifiers: Boise State and Cincinnati. This means that there will be a 2-loss team somewhere in the BCS. But who? This could affect who the bowl picks. And this is where the Big Ten shenanigans come in.

With Nebraska's shocking upset to Northwestern, this means there will be no Big Ten team with less than two losses at the end of the year (I think it's safe to assume Penn State will lose one of their remaining games (I have them losing two more, actually)). This also means Nebraska has two conference losses. Michigan State only has one conference loss, and I don't think they will lose again this year. So they will win the Legends division, where I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That would give Michigan State three losses. Whereas Nebraska - having continued winning through the end of the season - should be able to rise back up into the top 14 of the BCS.

So, yeah, it's probably unfair, but them's the breaks. Thanks to BCS hot-potato and backroom dealing, I went ahead and figured the Fiesta would suck it up and take Boise, setting up a game that sounds epic, at least in name: Alabama versus Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl. (I wasn't surprised to find the two schools had met in the Sugar Bowl before - in 1967. Unfortunately, it apparently wasn't much of a classic as the Tide won 34-7.)

In any BCS scenario, I figure the odds of the Orange avoiding an ACC-Big East matchup are slim.

ACC
The only ACC team that can possibly have only 1-loss is the ACC champ. I currently have this team as Clemson.

Thanks to unexpectedly strong seasons from Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia the ACC should fill out its primary bowl obligations this year and then some. The first slots after the BCS are easy: Virginia Tech to the Chick-fil-a and Florida State to the Champs Sports bowl (setting up a good "name" matchup if the Champs uses their option to select Notre Dame). This brings us to the Sun Bowl. According to the ACC selection rules, the Sun can choose from the following: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, and Miami. Miami went to the Sun Bowl last year so I figure they're out. I don't Virginia or Wake are known for traveling terribly well, and so I've put GT there. This allows the rest of the dominoes to fall into place. I've put NC State into the Belk Bowl (formerly the Car Care Bowl), followed by Miami to the Music City and Virginia to the Independence. Wake Forest finally gets picked for the Military Bowl, mostly because ACC rules prevent a 3-5 UNC from being picked above them. This allows North Carolina to be shipped out to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl in San Fransisco, fulfilling the ACC option as a backup for the Pac-12 or Army.

Big East
If it seems like the Big East selections were drawn out of a hat, well, they very well could have been. For the sake of my sanity, I picked Cincy to run the table followed by Louisville, WVU, and Pitt. Oy. They will have an extra team, though, since I have Syracuse getting 6-6, so I put them in the Military Bowl slot the Big 12 won't come anywhere close to filling.

Big 12
The Big 12 is pretty much the two Oklahoma schools and everyone else. Texas seems to have gotten its act together so I slotted them into the Cotton. Everything else straightforward, though Baylor kind of gets the shaft. If Iowa State or Texas Tech and manage to win another game that would really be a boon for the conference but considering their schedules I don't see it happening.

Big Ten
The Big Ten is a mess right now. I talked about the Nebraska thing above, and that was mostly just me going "well, someone has to have a 2-bid conference that probably doesn't deserve it" and so I figured a 2-loss team from the Big Ten would fit the bill. Michigan State will probably still land in the Capital One Bowl, so that's not a huge deal. I have both Michigan and Penn State going 9-3, with the Outback bid going to the Fightin' Paternos and shipping Michigan off to Arizona. The rest of the slate is pretty "meh" and straightforward, though even after four weeks it still feels weird projecting Ohio State into second-tier bowl games.

Pac-12
Boy does this conference miss USC being eligible or what? Speaking of crazy upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska was shocking, yes, but not Earth-shaking (well, metaphorically considering recent events in Oklahoma). UCLA over Arizona State, though? Now there's an upset. Consider this: the team that got pantsed by Arizona only a few Thursdays ago and had all but officially announced they'd fired the head coach is now in a 3-way tie for the Pac-12 South lead. Now, I figure Arizona State will still win the division in the end, but still. Also, don't look but Utah should get to 6-6 pretty easily over the next few weeks, if not 7-5. I tried to resist it, but it was just too easy match them against TCU in the Las Vegas Bowl if for no other reason than to get Utah partisans to say, "wait, we joined a BCS conference and we still ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl... and playing one of our former MWC rivals?" I had some hesitation though because that meant Cal ended up in the Fights Hunger Bowl, which is being played in the stadium that's serving as their home field this year. Well, if nothing else I guess they'll be used to it.

SEC
SEC partisans will no doubt howl about the 2-team limit for BCS participation, because if Arkansas's only losses are to LSU and Alabama then they should easily stay in the BCS top 14. Nonetheless, the BCS slate was pretty straightforward, though I am hoping I'm wrong and Vandy gets up to 6-6.

Everyone else
The Sun Belt and MAC will benefit, as usual, from having surplus eligible teams. I still have Western Kentucky on track to make their first ever bowl game. Overall, though, there's nothing Earthshattering going on here other than an undefeated Houston being stuck in the Liberty Bowl, but at least that makes it a good bet for Conference USA to make it two straight in the game. This week not having enough teams does not appear to be a concern, and from what I remember while doing the predictions, it appears we'll be okay this year. (Though honestly one of my favorite bowl system doomsday scenarios that no one talks about is the specter of a team with a losing record making it into a bowl game.)

Anyway, next week probably be just as difficult and confusing, though which way it ultimately goes may be decided just up the road from me here in California. Until then...

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

2011-11-05T05:15:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Texas Tech @ Texas (FX): Will the real Texas Tech please stand up? Losing to Iowa State 41-7 after knocking off Oklahoma is, just, well, hard to fathom. I think Texas has a pretty good shot to get to bowl eligibility here.
Michigan @ Iowa (ESPN): Michigan was last seen taking care of business against Purdue, while Iowa was last seen falling asleep on the job and losing to the extremely hapless Golden Gophers. Have to like Denard and Co. here.
Syracuse @ Connecticut (ESPNU): Depressingly, this game is still extremely important in the race to the Big East's BCS bid.
Minnesota @ Michigan State (BTN): Will Minnesota make it two in a row? Almost certainly not.
Indiana @ Ohio State (BTN): Hapless doesn't even begin to describe the Hoosiers this year. Ohio State shouldn't need a last minute TD pass to win this one.
Vanderbilt @ Florida (SEC): Florida supporters probably feel like it's the end of the world after losing to UGA. Not that I can blame them, of course. This is a fiesty Vandy team but it's hard to envision how they could come out of the swamp with a win.

12:30:

Virginia @ Maryland (ACC): Boston College looked like the shot in the arm the Terps needed. Instead, it looked like they were shot with a cannonball as BC picked up its first ACC win. I'm not expecting much else out of UMD at this point.
North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACC): While it probably won't be the 34-0 drubbing this received last weekend, it's hard to see NCSU winning here.

3:00: Duke @ Miami (ACC/FSN): Miami. Probably.

3:30:

Army @ Air Force (CBS): Getting blown out by MAC teams isn't a good sign for this year's Army squad. Air Force should win easily.
Stanford @ Oregon State (ABC): Look closely at this ABC coverage map. See that one sliver in southern Florida? That's the Andrew Luck Effect, which could also refer to what's about to happen to Oregon State.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2): Did you know that Texas A&M has the worst pass defense in the country? I didn't until earlier today. I don't think they'll need to worry about surrendering a 2nd half lead in this one, suffice it to say.
Purdue @ Wisconsin (ESPN2/ABC): Speaking of blowing 2nd half leads, I don't think the Badgers have much to worry about this weekend.
Texas-El Paso @ Rice (FSN): UTEP needs this one to set up the one upset they'll need to pull to get to bowl eligibility. I think they'll get it.
Mississippi @ Kentucky (ESPNU): ESS-EEE-CEE SLAPFIGHT. Technically speaking, Kentucky does have more wins over DI-A competition than Ole Miss (2 to 1). Basically, this is is about as far as you can get from the nightcap on CBS tonight. Both of these teams are really just so awful it's hard for me to pick one that will be slightly less awful for four hours. I guess I'll go with Kentucky, because that'll make it all the more hilarious when Houston Nutt inexplicably beats LSU two weeks from now but gets fired at the end of the year anyway.
Troy @ Navy (CBSS): I think Navy gets the win here, but the rest of the year is looking pretty lean.
Northwestern @ Nebraska (BTN): (looks up Big Ten divisional standings) Oh, right, with their win over Sparty last weekend Nebraska is in the driver's seat for the ...(checks again)... yes, right, Legends division. It's difficult to see how Northwestern stands a chance.

7:00:

Missouri @ Baylor (FSN): I HOPE YOU LIKE POINTS because boy howdy you'll get them in this game. That said, Baylor's defense is just awful and will probably let them down again. Despair not, Baylor fans - Texas Tech and Kansas remain very beatable.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Finally this is the week where the three teams that could win the Big East start to play each other. If Cincy wins they remain the team to beat, where as a Pitt win makes this year's Backyard Brawl bigger than ever.
Houston @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSS): If you don't follow Alabama college news, there hasn't been a lot of good news the past couple of weeks for the other two members of the University of Alabama system that aren't in Tuscaloosa. My hometown school, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, recently got its unique DI hockey program canned (the only DI hockey program in the South) for various dumb reasons. UAB, meanwhile, recently got its bid for an on-campus football stadium canned. I feel less bad about that one because while I realize that Legion Field isn't all that great these days I'm not really sure what UAB has done to merit an on-campus stadium. Most of what I've seen said it would cost around $75 million, which is vastly more than what it takes to run a hockey program. Perhaps that's not really a fair point, though - after all, I love Tech's on campus stadium but it's only a mile and a half from the Georgia Dome. (Of course, the counter to that would be that Tech has been playing football for a very long time and the Bobby Dodd Stadium predates the Dome by decades.)
Anyway, none of that has anything to do with the fact Case Keenum will become the NCAA's all-time passing leader at Legion Field at some point Saturday night as Houston will almost certainly rout a UAB squad that is 116th in scoring and gives up 35 points a game to teams that aren't Houston (i.e., the number one team in the country in scoring at 52.3 points per game).
Middle Tennessee State @ Tennessee (SEC/FSN): And so begins Tennessee's harrowing quest toward bowl eligibility. Four games to go, one of which is an almost certain loss to Arkansas, but the others are Vandy and Kentucky. Will they make it? Stay tuned.

7:15: South Carolina @ Arkansas (ESPN): Speaking of Arkansas, this is a game that features two SEC in the top-10 mostly because they're teams from the SEC that only have 1-loss. Arkansas needed a missed chip shot FG to avoid overtime against Vandy last weekend, and South Carolina's offense has taken a dive since they lost Marcus Lattimore. If one of these teams has a better chance of breaking out of their offensive funk, though, it has to be Arkansas, and so I'll take the Razorbacks here.

7:30: Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): UCLA pulled off an inexplicably upset of Cal last weekend, but I'm not buying it. Arizona State should roll.

8:00:

Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): We've known this was going to be a huge game since the schedules came out at the beginning of the year. We also know that the wise guys like Alabama, but the people like LSU. Expect for their punter being one of the first victims of the NCAA's new (and dumb) live-ball unsportsmanlike conduct rule, LSU has had a pretty, well, normal season so far, free of any botched end-of-game situations. They've even showed signs of actually having an offense which has generally been the thing missing from past LSU teams. The only thing that's remained the same, it seems, is a very talented defense and Les Miles remaining extremely quotable.
Nick Saban, of course, remains really boring. Nonetheless, if Bama fans had any sense of humor and were less religiously uptight there would probably "SABAN IS GOD" graffiti throughout the state. (I mean, there's probably plenty of paraphernalia that just about implies Saban is at least a lesser deity along with God and, of course, Bear Bryant.) Anyway, enough blasphemy from me. If LSU's defense is really good, then what I've been saying the last two years is true. 2010 Alabama had a pretty good defense, but it in 2011 it would be back to 2009 levels and so far I have been right. That said, LSU's defense is only #2 because they played Oregon, who had the audacity to score 27 points on them. LSU also gave up 21 to West Virginia, but outside of that hasn't given up more than 11 points. The reason why Alabama is #1 is because they haven't given up more than 14 to anyone, but that is because they haven't really played anyone with a decent offense other than Arkansas.
The resume so far is the main reason why LSU is #1 in the country in all the polls. They boast a very good win over Oregon, and a decent OOC win over WVU, but won't play the SEC's other quality team until they play Arkansas at the end of the year. Alabama, meanwhile, was able to shutdown Arkansas's offense but frankly holding Penn State and Florida to 11 and 10 points, respectively, isn't really all that much of an achievement this year. I'm not saying this defense isn't very good, mind you.
In the end, this will go the way of many SEC heavyweight bouts over the past few years. There will not be a lot of points in this game. So, naturally, my mind turns to "which team is less likely to make mistakes?" If there's any offense built to minimize mistakes, it's Alabama's, which again has an anonymous game-manager QB and a Heisman candidate running back. LSU's offense has been a revelation this year, which basically means they've put up a lot of points against several teams that have sort-of sketchy defenses. And yet, if something weird happens in this game, you have to think that favors the team with The Hat, don't yet? But nonetheless, if these teams played each other 10 times, I think Alabama would win 7 of those times. I'll reluctantly take the Tide.
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (ABC/ESPN2): I have no idea why you would watch this game. This is a feisty Wake Forest squad but the Domers should punch their ticket for the Champs Sports Bowl (well, or maybe the Pinstripe Bowl).
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2/ABC): Oklahoma put up 58 on Kansas State. The Wildcats will pickup their second loss, the only question is "by how much?"

10:30:

Oregon @ Washington (FSN): It's time for the nightcaps! This is the most palatable of them, of course. Washington's been a nice surprise in the Pac-12 North this year (see Big Ten, I didn't even look that up!) but their previous attempt to have a say in the outcome of the division didn't go so well with a 65-21 rout in Palo Alto. They'll try again here, and I think it could be closer but I don't think it'll be close enough.
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State (ESPNU): Yes, kids, this is a WAC game! Neither of these teams really do anything particularly well, but Fresno's defense is apparently really bad, so we could have a shootout on our hands. I still like Fresno here though.
Boise State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV already gives up 40 points a game to teams that aren't Boise State. This should be a bloodbath.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 3

2011-11-01T03:59:00.000-07:00

Let's get the link out of the way.

I feel like I'm close to really being able to do an in-depth analysis, though I think we won't really be able to have a real idea of what things will look like until Oregon and Stanford play. While this weekend's Alabama-LSU tilt is huge for the national title game, the loser will likely still get into a BCS bowl as long as they don't lose again. I think Oregon will beat Stanford, which leaves me in a bad position because I also think Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State. For the sake of clarity right now, I'm not going with the latter prediction to avoid a big mess, pretty much.

Elsewhere in the BCS, I'm not really sure to do after I slot the Alabama-LSU loser into the Sugar Bowl. I have Wisconsin, Oregon, Clemson, and West Virginia as conference champs, and Boise should qualify for an at-large. So that leaves us with two more at-large slots. I went with Stanford and Oklahoma. I couldn't figure out any other better 1-loss team to put into the BCS, pretty much. Even a 1-loss Stanford feels like a reach to me, but Andrew Luck alone may get them into the BCS, in the sense that NFL fans my flock to see the future #1 draft pick.

Quick conference breakdowns:

ACC: As ecstatic as I was about our victory Saturday, I'm not sure how much it will help our bowl positioning unless we can beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia. I also ended up in the awkward positioning of sending Miami back to the Sun Bowl, which I kind of doubt will happen again. I have Clemson losing again, but to South Carolina.
Big 12: I still think that Bedlam will probably only act as a NCG stepping stone for Oklahoma State, provided they don't lose beforehand. I don't have Mizzou or Texas Tech getting eligible, even with the former delivering a surprise upset this week, and with the latter's surprise upset being a good reason why they might not make 6-6.
Big East: I... guess West Virginia's going to win this conference? Who the heck knows.
Big Ten: Michigan suddenly sits pretty at the top of the Big Ten heap, with Michigan State unable to follow up on their Wisconsin win. Wisconsin also suffered a surprising loss to Ohio State, but I still have them winning the Leaders division because Penn State can't really be for real, can they?
Pac-12: I still have Oregon beating Stanford. Meanwhile, I think Utah will rally over the back half of their schedule because now they get to play the Colorados and UCLAs of the world. They may even get to 8-4. Either way, with USC not eligible and Cal barely getting in at 6-6, the Pac-12 will come nowhere close to fulfilling its obligations.
SEC: The SEC elite this year (Alabama and LSU) will almost certainly make BCS bowls as long as neither loses more than once. Unlike in past years, though, the depth of the conference is not that great. Ole Miss and Kentucky are just outright terrible. I have Miss State and Tennessee limping at 6-6. I also have Vandy going 6-6 but for them that's a pretty good year. The East is down to Georgia and South Carolina, and I think the latter could still lose again in SEC play. I swapped South Carolina and Arkansas in their bowl slots because I had Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and they already played Arkansas this year - in Dallas, no less. (The Cotton prefers teams from the SEC West, but Auburn may be the only other team in the division that has a winning record.)
Independents: I have the Champs Sports Bowl exercising its Notre Dame pick this year, otherwise the Domers will probably fall back to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City. BYU is already eligible and has an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. I don't think either of the academies will qualify this year. Navy already has 6 losses and according to some sites I've seen this already discounts them because the Army game is too late on the calendar. And I'm not sure where they Army team is going to get 3 wins from.
Mid-majors: The Sun Belt and MAC benefit hugely once again from Big 6 conferences unable to use all their bids. I have 4 eligible Sun Belt teams, including Western Kentucky making its first ever bowl game. The WAC will probably only have 3 eligible teams, one of them being Hawaii. The MAC should produce 6 eligible teams, providing plenty of backup. Hard part is that many of the bowls missing teams are out west, which makes it difficult to say "oh yeah, that's close, maybe they'll go there". Boise will make the BCS provided they don't lose at some point, and the rest of the Mountain West should fulfill its obligations as teams like Air Force and San Diego State should get their seasons together. And finally, the C-USA title game may be pretty good this year, as Southern Miss is on a collision course for only 1 loss going into the game with Houston. Case Keenum may still be too much for the Golden Eagles, though. Houston almost certainly can't get into the BCS (due to their schedule) but the C-USA has a good chance of holding onto the Liberty Bowl title, I should think.

All right, that's that. Hopefully I'll have more thorough breakdowns next week. Until then.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

2011-10-29T04:07:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Missouri @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FX): This Mizzou Big 12 schedule will soften up and propel them back to respectability, starting next week.
Michigan State @ Nebraska (ESPN): Nebraska is a favorite in this game... how? I like Sparty to pull the "upset" here.
Purdue @ Michigan (ESPN2): Michigan should roll.
North Carolina State @ Florida State (ESPNU): FSU should roll.
Northwestern @ Indiana (BTN): Northwestern isn't good, but Indiana is awful. Wildcats should take it.
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vanderbilt's made some noise in the SEC this year, but it's hard to see how they can take Arkansas.

12:30: Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACC): VPI will do their usual "play to their level" thing but should win by a respectable margin in the end.

3:00:

Washington State @ Oregon (FSN): Oh dear. Ducks roll.
Boston College @ Maryland (ACC): I was going to say how painful this is going to bed, but then I realized that BC is really that much worse than Maryland. I like the Terps here.

3:30:

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): These are two teams with similar records but vastly different schedules so far. Florida comes in with a 3-game losing streak, but two of those teams were Alabama and LSU, which hardly seems fair. They were also missing their starting quarterback for most of that span.
Of course, the Cocktail Party brings me to another curiosity of college sports: an emphasis on tradition and history, when most of your players will completely cycle through every four years. Think about it. I'll revisit that later. For now, I like the Gators.
Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): Navy's going to be desperate (currently on a 5-game losing streak), and should cover, but I don't think it'll be enough. Domers win.
Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2/ABC): I declare the wheels officially off for Illinois now. Penn State won't, role, per se, but I like them here.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State (ABC/ESPN2): Neither of these teams plays a lot of defense, but Robert Griffin III's one-man act probably won't be enough against the Cowboys.
West Virginia @ Rutgers (ABC): Somebody, anybody, please win the Big East. WVU winning would make my life a lot easier, so I'll go with them.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State (ESPN): The buck stops here for K-State. The Sooners should be out for blood this week.
Southern Methodist @ Tulsa (FSN): This game will determine who gets to finish 2nd to Houston in C-USA West. SMU just lost pretty bad to the best C-USA team they've played this year (27-3 to Southern Miss) so I like Tulsa here.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ESPNU): This is an up year for Wake, but Carolina should begin its trek out of the ACC Coastal basement here.
Iowa @ Minnesota (BTN): Iowa has put up 41 and 45 in their last two games. This does not bode well for the Gophers.

7:00:

Iowa State @ Texas Tech (FSN): Texas Tech should continue its newfound winning ways against this year's version of a relatively hapless Iowa State squad.
Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPNU): I will refrain from saying how badly Ole Miss will lose so Houston Nutt won't come after me. So I'll be nonspecific: it'll be pretty bad.
Mississippi State @ Kentucky (SEC/FSN): Before playing Jacksonville State last weekend, Kentucky had failed to score more than 17 points since September 10th. Now, Miss State isn't that good this year or anything but I still like them here, suffice it to say.

7:15: South Carolina @ Tennessee (ESPN2): Can the Gamecocks cope without Marcus Lattimore? They've had a week off to try to figure it out, at least. I think they'll win but they'll still be on shaky ground the rest of the year.

8:00:

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (ABC): I feel like I write this every year, but it goes back to what I was saying earlier about history in college football. We call it on it so much, yet so much as changed even from 2009. But I'll say it anyway: Georgia Tech will win by less than a touchdown or Clemson will win by at least two.
This game is always one that is marked on a Georgia Tech fan's calendar. Clemson is GT's closest ACC rival, a mere two hour drive up I-85. It is also one of Tech's oldest rivals, as the two teams first played each other in 1898 and have played every year since 1962. Tech holds a large overall lead (49-25-1), but Clemson fans will be quick to remind you that Tech did not travel to Clemson until 1974. Since then, the teams are about as even as you can get: 16-16-1, with an average score of 19.73 to 24.18 in favor of Clemson.
Of course, what does all that mean for this year's game? Well, nothing really. If Tech can find its offensive mojo again they have a chance, otherwise this will be a one-sided track meet. With the offense sputtering the past few weeks and a special teams that are usually referred to undiplomatically as "special", rationally it is hard for me to see us having a chance. Yet, it's a rivalry game, it's a night game (always the most fun, in my opinion), and I am nervous about it anyway.
Stanford @ Southern California (ABC): Blah blah best team Stanford's played so far blah blah. Whatever, the Cardinal should still blow them out.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (ESPN): So I coin "Wisconsin Death Machine" for their offense last weekend and what do they do? Score their lowest point output of the season (a "mere" 31 points). Then again, 31 should be enough to beat Ohio State this year.
Southern Mississippi @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): Southern Miss has blazed a trail of destruction across Conference USA since their inexplicable loss to Marshall in September 10th. They should easily handle UTEP provided they can get past the UTEP Reality Distortion Field.

10:30: Arizona @ Washington (FSN): Speaking of teams out for revenge after bad losses, oi, just turn your heads and look away Arizona fans. If you haven't already.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 2

2011-10-28T23:18:00.000-07:00

Subtitle: The One Where Texas Tech Ruins Everything.

First off, the predictions are here.

Second off, I still have no idea what is going on. Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech? I had Oklahoma State losing to OU but that meant I had no idea who would face the winner of LSU-Alabama in the national title game.

Week 3 should be a week's worth of information better, suffice it to say.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

2011-10-21T23:24:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Oklahoma State @ Missouri (FX): The biggest difficulty for me with these FX games so far is remembering they exist. I'm sure the Big 12 types remember, but I generally had an easier time when they were on FSN because then they were at least near everything else. As for the game, Oklahoma State should roll.
North Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): One of these weeks, Clemson will play with fire and get burned. I think this a game they could lose, but they probably won't.
Illinois @ Purdue (ESPN2): Illinois should be out for blood a week after losing their undefeated mark, but on the flip side this is a team coached by Ron Zook. So, who knows? They should still win though.
Kansas State @ Kansas (FSN): Can K-State handle being heavy favorites in their in-state rivalry game? Yeah, they probably should be able to.
Jacksonville State @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Kentucky won't lose this game, but it could be too close for comfort.
Indiana @ Iowa (BTN): Iowa can really put up the points against drastically inferior competition. I believe Indiana qualifies as such.
Arkansas @ Mississippi (SEC): Can you imagine a SEC team giving up 60 in a conference game? Ole Miss almost did to the usually stodgy Crimson Tide last weekend, giving up 52. Arkansas should be worse.

12:30: Wake Forest @ Duke (ACC): This is apparently one of those years where all of the stars align for Wake Forest and they're sort of halfway decent. Which is probably bad news for Duke.

3:00: Boston College @ Virginia Tech (ACC/FSN): BC's defense isn't, like, terrible. It's not great or anything. But their offense is just so bad that even VPI should be able to win by (at least) 20.

3:30:

Auburn @ Louisiana State (CBS): Yes, I get that LSU is missing several key players from this defense but still, we've got a freshman QB going into a place where even veteran QBs can whither and die. LSU all the way.
Nebraska @ Minnesota (ABC/ESPN2): Nebraska isn't as good as you probably think, but Minnesota is worse. Much worse.
Maryland @ Florida State (ESPN2/ABC): Maryland sure has made it interesting the past couple of weeks, haven't they? They may manage to do the same against FSU, but it's still hard to see them breaking through.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Iowa State (ABC): ISU just gave up 52 to Mizzou last weekend. I don't see this ending well for them.
Georgia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): I think I've mentioned each of the last three weeks the issues with our run defense. So what happened? Virginia ran all over us. That said, Georgia Tech had 3 chances to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter but never mustered anything on offense.
The usual things were said this week about "intensity" and "wanting it" and such on both sides of the ball. We certainly haven't been as sharp since the UNC game, missing the big pass element of our game that had been so crucial early in the year. The defense is just, well, it's a continual work in progress, though we should get two of our starting linebackers back this weekend.
Miami enters with a rejuvenated offense but a very banged up defense. If this game turns into a shootout, I'm not really sure who I like better. Then again, that's true regardless.
North Carolina State @ Virginia (ESPNU): NC State isn't very good, but neither is Virginia and we just lost to them. So, yeah, I have no idea. UVA could well be in for a letdown after their big (ugh) win last weekend.
Oregon @ Colorado (FSN): Oregon will attempt to keep up with the Joneses in this one. In this case, the Joneses are Stanford (put up 48 points) and Washington (put up 52 points).
Air Force @ Boise State (Versus): Air Force might keep it close for a half, but Boise should just be able to keep throwing it over their heads.
East Carolina @ Navy (CBSS): Navy desperately needs a win to break out of a four game losing streak, and I think they'll get it against ECU.

7:00:

Army @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): In years past, this might've been a concern for the 'Dores, but this year's new and improved edition should be able to dispatch them fairly easily.
Pennsylvania State @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern's been more competitive in recent weeks, but they're still losing due to a lack of a defense. However, Penn State is inept enough on offense to keep this close and possibly allow the upset.

7:15: Tennessee @ Alabama (ESPN2): This one might get ugly. Tide rolls.

7:30: Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): It's the nation's favorite intersectional rivalry! Mostly because, well, there aren't really very many intersectional rivalries, but still. Outside of Michigan State and Michigan this will be Notre Dame's toughest test by far, but it appears that it will benefit them to play this at home. USC has a suspiciously bad defense (for them), so I like the Domers.

8:00:

Washington @ Stanford (ABC): This could be one of the more interesting Pac-12 matchups of the year, but ultimately I don't think Udub can run with Stanford.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC): Texas Tech has only held two teams below 30 points this year: Texas State and New Mexico. I have to say, I don't think I really like their chances against Oklahoma.
Wisconsin @ Michigan State (ESPN): Gutting out wins won't be enough against the Wisconsin Death Machine.
Southern Methodist @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): This could well turn into one of the more interesting games of the evening, but I like the Golden Eagles at home.

10:30: Oregon State vs. Washington State (@Seattle, WA; FSN): Well, Wazzou already beat one of the awful teams of the Pac-12 (Colorado), they should be able to do the same against Oregon State.

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 1

2011-10-20T04:02:00.000-07:00

I'm so busy right now that I will just copy my post from last year and change the URL.

Ordinarily, I use the first post of the year to go through my process and my thoughts on the individual bowls.

I won't do that here, though, for two reasons.
1. I am really busy right now.
2. I have no idea what is going on.

Hopefully I'll have something more substantive for week 2. In the meantime, enjoy.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

2011-10-15T00:44:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Baylor @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FX): Expect this one to be high scoring, but in the end, Baylor plays even less defense than TAMU. I don't think Robert Griffin III will be enough.
Michigan @ Michigan State (ESPN): Sparty's played two non-cupckaes this year: Notre Dame and Ohio State, and scored a combined 23 points in those games. Michigan's defense probably isn't as good as either, but it will probably still be enough for the Michigan offense to do its thing.
Indiana @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Our first complete mismatch of the day, this will probably be a massacre.
Utah @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Losing 34-10 to Rutgers probably wasn't quite how Pitt planned on this season going. Except for their demolition of BYU, however, Utah has lost to every team they've played with a pulse this year.
Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State will probably win this like 13-3, but they will win.
South Carolina @ Mississippi State (SEC): The Dan Mullen death machine hasn't quite gotten into gear this year, considering they only beat hapless UAB 21-3. South Carolina should win.

12:30: Miami @ North Carolina (ACC): Miami couldn't quite hold on against VPI. That may well translate into them getting blown away by UNC.

3:00: Florida State @ Duke (ACC): Yes, FSU couldn't handle the traditional ACC doormat they played last week. They will handle Duke.

3:30:

Louisiana State @ Tennessee (CBS): Speaking of SEC death machine, this one could get ugly.
Oklahoma State @ Texas (ABC/ESPN): I'll parrot the conventional wisdom here. Texas's green secondary got repeatedly and thoroughly burned against a very good passing attack last week against Oklahoma. Now, they get the nation's best passing attack. Yeah, uh....
Ohio State @ Illinois (ESPN/ABC): If Braxton Miller plays, OSU has a shot and I think they'll win. If not, they don't. That simple.
Central Florida @ Southern Methodist (FSN): UCF has been up and down this season, but USM has been pretty consistent except for an inexplicable loss to Marshall. I like the Golden Eagles here.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia (ESPNU): Fact: Georgia Tech has 1 win in Charlottesville since 1990, and that came 2 years ago. Hopefully that will motivate Tech to do a little better this time around, as the effort against Maryland was lacking. Tevin Washington has gone from the nation's most efficient passer to not being able to find his receivers in a sort of bad flashback to last year's offense. Our defense is just plain bad against the run at this point - other than the ineptitude of their QBs, Maryland simply also had no reason to throw against this defense.
UVA to this point has not looked that great. But, they have a big and capable offensive line that can open up running lanes - Tech will have to work especially hard to get, and this is key, maintain a lead this weekend.

6:00: Alabama @ Mississippi (ESPN2): This is the second of the predicted blowouts of the day. This may be a blowout in the sense that Alabama scores 31 but Ole Miss scores 0 and ends up with negative total yards of offense.

7:00:

Florida @ Auburn (ESPN): Freshman starting quarterbacks are not really a recipe for success in any conference,
Kansas State @ Texas Tech (FSN): K-State is easily the most surprising 5-0 team in the country, as they should have at least two losses by now. They should beat TTU anyway, which leads to a difficult decision. But, given no records about these two teams, I probably would've picked the purple cats anyway.
Clemson @ Maryland (ESPNU): Unless Clemson really Clemsons this one up (and it's happened before, against Maryland even (see: 2009)!) this should be a rout.
Northwestern @ Iowa (BTN): Iowa does well against teams without very good defenses, so despite Dan Persa's best efforts this probably won't go well for NU.
Georgia @ Vanderbilt (SEC): This is a reasonably competent version of Vandy, but it probably won't be enough for them to be more competent than UGA.

7:30: Stanford @ Washington State (Versus): Though this version of Wazzou is not completely terrible, they did allow 42 to SDSU and 25 to bumbling UCLA. Expect the Cardinal to try to beat the combined score.

8:00: Alabama-Birmingham @ Tulsa (CBSS): UAB is 120th (i.e., last) in the country in points scored and 96th in points against. This is not a winning combination, to say the least. Tulsa should... argh trying to think of something to say other than "blow them away".

9:15: Oklahoma @ Kansas (ESPN2): And here's top-3 blowout number 3. This Week In Schadenfreude is always great, but this edition contained this gem:

There's actually a weird brand of Stockholm Syndrome going on on the KU boards, with several chipper folks envisioning wins later in the year because of things like this:
GT is a legit team and we hung with them for a half.
Georgia Tech put up 768 yards! Kansas fans must be the most tolerant in the country.

OU rolls.

10:15: Arizona State @ Oregon (ESPN): And, finally, a legit Pac-12 nightcap. Oregon should still win of course - and Autzen should be a madhouse on a Saturday night - but Arizona State is at least capable of making it interesting.

Okay, with the BCS coming out this week the bowl predictions should be out next Monday for reals. Until then...

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

2011-10-07T22:34:00.000-07:00

Well, I really hope you didn't take any of my "advice" from last week. Anyway, back to winners/losers.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): It's the Red River Shootout and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Texas has shown signs of an offensive rejuvenation, but I don't think it will be enough against the Sooners.
Minnesota @ Purdue (ESPN):

Purdue should win.
Louisville @ North Carolina (ESPN2): Carolina responded well to their first loss of the season by taking care of business against ECU. Louisville lost to Marshall last week. I think you can infer the rest.
Mississippi State @ Alabama-Birmingham (FSN): Things haven't quite gone to plan for Dan Mullen and Co. They should get a shot in the arm against the 0-4 Blazers, though.
Maryland @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): Oy, where to begin? Well, first, let's discount those last two touchdowns against NCSU - both were freak plays. That said, against a better opponent we would have lost that game. Tech allowed 195 yards rushing to a team that averages less than 100 yards per game. This defense still has many, many, questions and will be weakened by the loss of 2 of their top 4 linebackers.
Other than their week 1 win against Miami, the Terps haven't had much to show for this season, probably now mostly remembered for a 38-7 loss to Temple. The true talent of this team is probably somewhere in between, and Tech's tendency to play down to their competition makes this a very dangerous game.
Kentucky @ South Carolina (SEC): I don't think it's going to matter which QB Spurrier throws out there this week, Kentucky just isn't very good this year.

12:30: Florida State @ Wake Forest (ACC): If E.J. Manuel is back this weekend, then Seminoles win easily. Well, they should win otherweise as well, but it will probably be a lot closer.

3:00: Boston College @ Clemson (ACC/FSN): BC: still looking to break that elusive 20-point barrier. They probably won't against suddenly potent Clemson.

3:30:

Florida @ Louisiana State (CBS): The only saving grace for Florida might be that this is an afternoon game and not a night one, which is really only conceivable way the situation could be worse for their trio of freshman quarterbacks.
Air Force @ Notre Dame (NBC): I think Air Force will keep it close but that ND will probably prevail in the end.
Iowa @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN): I'll take Iowa here, because they actually seem capable of playing offense.
Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN/ABC): It's the "readjusted expectations" bowl! I think the Hokies will be out for blood after last weekend, though.
Missouri @ Kansas State (ABC): It feels weird to say that K-State beating Baylor is one of the bigger upsets of the year, but here we are. Still, though, Missouri has lost to a whole spectrum of teams, so I will take a chance on the Wildcats here.
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Other than being an abomination against offensive football, last week's Rutgers-Syrcause game as pretty entertaining. The same probably won't be able to be said about this one as the Panthers should roll.
Southern Mississippi @ Navy (CBSS): Watch out, Navy, USM is pretty a pretty solid team. I still like the Midshipmen here though.

7:00:

Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Texas Tech (FX): I don't think TAMU will need to worry about blowing a 2nd half lead here.
Auburn @ Arkansas (ESPN): I think Arkansas will be able to take this one from the outset.
Georgia @ Tennessee (ESPN2): I actually have no idea who will win this. Neither team boasts any real upset losses or unexpected wins, so it's hard to say what'll go down here. So, when in doubt: pick the home team. Especially in college football.
Iowa State @ Baylor (FSN): Iowa State's defense is not so hot. Neither is Baylor's, but if this turns into a shootout, my money is on the Fighting Robert Griffin the Thirds.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama (ESPNU): Anything less than a shutout will probably be disappointing for the Tide.
East Carolina @ Houston (CBSS): ECU's played a killer non-conference schedule, going 0-3 against South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina. And now they get the Case Keenum show. Probably not good for them.
Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern may finally have their own dynamic QB back, but Michigan's is even, er, dynamicier. (Yes, that's not a word. Let's move on.) Also, Northwestern's defense is, like, epically bad.

7:30: Colorado @ Stanford (Versus): Maybe they'll get Andrew Luck catch two passes in this likely laugher.

8:00: Ohio State @ Nebraska (ABC): Speaking of laughers, which will be greater: the number of points Ohio State scores, or the average number of beers consumed by their fans in trying to forget how the season has gone so far?

10:15: San Jose State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): With two wins, San Jose State is just "bad" this year as opposed to "really bad" in years past. Probably still not enough of an improvement to beat BYU though.

10:30:

Washington State @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): Washington State may go to 2-0 in the Pac-10/12 for the first in... well, I'm feeling lazy tonight so yeah it's probably been awhile. UCLA's offense is just so bad, though.
Texas Christian @ San Diego State (CBSS): TCU should've been in the Big 12 the whole time, so an injustice 15 years in the making is finally being righted. In other news, turns out this year's version of TCU isn't that good. I think SDSU will actually seize the opportunity to do some last-minute restructuring of the pecking order in the Mountain West.

Anyway, it's bowl predictions time! Look for 'em Sunday or Monday.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 5

2011-09-30T17:53:00.000-07:00

In honor of my trip to Vegas this weekend, I will actually pick against the spread. Spread values are as Friday morning, Pacific time. I should note that I probably won't actually bet on any of these.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong:

Noon:

Air Force @ Navy (-3.5) (CBS): 3.5 points doesn't seem like nearly enough, as I really like Navy here.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (-2.5) vs. Arkansas (@Arlington, TX; ESPN): Both these times withered in their first real tests of the year, though I suffice to say I think Arkansas's was a little tougher than TAMU's. I like Arkansas to win outright, actually.
Northwestern @ Illinois (-10) (ESPN2): Northwestern gets their offense back in the form of Dan Persa this week, which is good for a team that lost to Army. Meanwhile, Illinois didn't lose, but they sure tried to in a 23-20 win over Western Michigan. If I were to bet on this for some reason, I'd take the points.
Texas Tech (-6.5) @ Kansas (FSN): I know Tommy Tuberville is at TTU and not Leach, but geez. I like Tech to cover.
Pennsylvania State (-15.5) @ Indiana (ESPNU): My only reservation about picking Penn State to cover here is that I'm not entirely sure they can actually score 16 points.
Tulane @ Army (-7) (CBSS): I think betting on this game would probably be a sign that you need help. Tulane has shown some ability to score this year, so I actually like them to win outright.
Minnesota @ Michigan (-20) (BTN): Yes, Minnesota really is that bad. Michigan should cover.
Mississippi State @ Georgia (-7) (SEC/FSN): I'm not sure which of these teams is a less inspiring 2-2. I would stay far away from this one, but if you can't for whatever reason, I would take Miss State and the points.
Kentucky @ Louisiana State (-30.5) (SEC): Kentucky is awful and all. I mean, really awful. But 30 points to LSU awful? Oh, right, they did beat WVU by 26. But still! 30 points in a SEC game! I would, very hesitantly, take Kentucky and the points.

12:30: Wake Forest @ Boston College (-1) (ACC): A person who is nominally a Boston College fan wrote the following sentence a couple weeks ago: "Duke was simply the better football team today." I'll take Wake outright.

2:30: Nevada @ Boise State (-27.5) (Versus): Nevada gave TTU all they wanted last week despite not really being the squad that upset Boise last year. Oh, right. Yeah... Boise might cover after all.

3:30:

Michigan State @ Ohio State (-3.5) (ABC/ESPN): Neither of these teams has really played anyone to this point. Ohio State's best win is a 37-17 evisceration of a not-very-good Colorado team, while Sparty's best win to date is probably Central Michigan. So, uh, stay away from this one. Unless you want to take Ohio State to cover.
Georgia Tech (-10) @ North Carolina State (ESPN/ABC): This will be GT's first real road test, though as far as I can tell the only thing really going for NCSU at this point is a blogger with a good sense of humor. Personally, though, it always makes me kind of nervous when the opposing fanbase is preparing for a massacre. I've been a GT fan long enough now to know that nothing is a gimme, having seen losses to the Dukes, (bad) UNCs, and Kansases of the world. Oh, and we lost to NCSU last year, at home, 45-28. In other words, I generally expect the worst. That said, it's not like we don't have issues of our own. Defense is still sketchy and seems to disappear for halves at a time, with good performances the 2nd half against Kansas and the 1st half against UNC, but then allowing UNC to get back in the game. Special teams remain... special, as we miss Scott Blair on place kicks and seem to be lacking answers on kickoff coverage, kickoff returns, punting, and punt returns. To this point, we're basically some sort of anti-LSU, basically.
For NC State, they miss Russell Wilson but Mike Glennon actually isn't terrible, but they have lots of issues running the ball and on defense. That said, if the GT defense disappears for a half again their rushing attack could suddenly look very potent.
Baylor (-4) @ Kansas State (ABC): This game will likely be loaded with offense, with K-State piling 28 on in their win at Miami and, well, let me tell you about Robert Griffin III, Baylor's soon to be all-everything quarterback. Actually, whole articles could probably be written about him, so I will just state this: Robert Griffin III has more touchdown passes (13) than incompetions (12). That's not a typo. That's not TD:INT. His TD:INT is undefined, actually. So, yes, after 82 attempts, he has more touchdown passes than incompletions. Amazing. I like Baylor to cover. Well, Robert Griffin to cover, anyway.
Arizona @ Southern California (-12) (FSN): Arizona's not good and all, but this isn't the USC juggernauts of the past, either. I'll take the points.
Bethune-Cookman @ Miami (ESPNU): Some books have lines on these games, but many don't. I won't either. Miami all the way.
Southern Methodist @ Texas Christian (-13) (CBSS): This isn't last year's TCU, but I still like them to cover against a SMU team that got blown out by the only other good team they've played this year (TAMU).

6:00: Clemson @ Virginia Tech (-7) (ESPN2): I like the building narrative of Clemson as a cheap knockoff of Auburn from last year. Basically, the narrative is something like this: powered by a singular talent on offense (well, and a good WR) plus a sketchy defense that makes 1 or 2 plays when it has to. Virginia Tech has mostly done its thing against lesser competition so far, but it also gets the Tigers in the infamously difficult environment at night in Blacksburg for their first road game of the year. Also, one of these teams is coached by Dabo Swinney and it isn't VPI. I think VPI will cover the 7 points.

7:00:

Texas (-9.5) @ Iowa State (FX): Iowa State is 3-0, including what has to be a freak victory over in-state rival Iowa. That said, Texas got into a groove against UCLA on offense, so I think they will cover.
Washington @ Utah (-10) (FSN): 10 seems awfully high for this group of Utes. Yes, they did demolish BYU. No, Washington isn't that good this year. And yet, I feel one should take the points here.
Duke @ Florida International (-3.5) (ESPNU): FIU is decent and stuff, but I still think Duke should win outright.

8:00:

Alabama (-4) @ Florida (CBS): I feel like this should be about Alabama by 7 or so, I think you can infer the rest.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-10) (ABC): I think I would take the points here. Wisconsin has played no one so we don't really know if their defense is really all that. I think this could be high scoring for both sides, a situation that has to favor Nebraska at least getting within 10.
Notre Dame (-12) @ Purdue (ESPN): Meanwhile, if Notre Dame can get out of their own way they should be able to cover against a bad Purdue team.
North Carolina (-7) @ East Carolina (CBSS): UNC should cover pretty easily. ECU is good and stuff, and sure they hung around with VPI, but everyone hangs around with VPI - it's what they do. Meanwhile, UNC has some real talent on both sides of the ball and should dominate both lines of scrimmage.

9:15: Mississippi @ Fresno State (-4) (ESPN2): Really, we should be placing bets on when Houston Nutt gets fired. Fresno covers.

10:30: California-Los Angeles @ Stanford (-21.5) (FSN): UCLA held on to beat a very depleted Beaver squad. Stanford is not depleted. Stanford should cover.

All right, folks, good luck and enjoy the weekend!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 4

2011-09-23T04:04:00.000-07:00

Yarr, there be spelling and grammar mistake dragons here. But let's get down to it anyway, and it'll be ready more than 24 hours in advance, to boot!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): I should probably write something about realignment, but I don't really have the time right now. So I'll start here: Pitt, you need to start to win some games and not letting Iowa stage a 21-point rally in the last 16:16 of the game. That said, Notre Dame's demolishing of a superior defense in Michigan State last weekend might show they're ready now after an unsteady first two games, so I'll go with the Irish here.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): It's always fun when your team scores 66 points. I almost hate to say it but the 2nd reminded me of the Stanford-Wake Forest game I went to last year out here, in terms of "dominating offensive performances". That said, Carolina does have an actual, real defense and some ability to move the ball, while GT's defensive performance in the first half against Kansas was, shall we say, lackluster. Additionally, I don't really feel good about the fact we decided to print t-shirts about beating Kansas.
Eastern Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): This will be a good recovery after what Alabama did to Penn State. Then again, they probably thought that going into the Temple game last weekend.
Southern Methodist @ Memphis (FSN): Memphis is still one of the worst teams in college football, but at least they didn't lose to Austin Peay. Anyway, Mustangs roll.
Central Michigan @ Michigan State (ESPNU): Speaking of recovery games, this might be exactly what Sparty needs after fizzling against Notre Dame.
San Diego State @ Michigan (BTN): For Wazzou, nothing had to be more deflating for prospects of "maybe this is the year we aren't a laughingstock anymore" than losing 42-24 to SDSU. That said, the Aztecs are more than capable of scoring points and may be able to keep this interesting into the second half.
Georgia @ Mississippi (SEC): Look, Georgia's not very good this year, but Ole Miss, well, that is a trainwreck in progress. If you tune into this one, you may be stuck in "horrifying yet can't look away" mode.

12:30: Temple @ Maryland (ACC): Temple was able to give Penn State a run for its money, but honestly that was probably a fluke. Terps should be able to take care of business.

3:30:

Arkansas @ Alabama (CBS): Nick Saban vs. Bobby Petrino. This game is usually pretty fun, even if the Tide winds up winning in the end - which they probably will in this game.
Colorado @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State may have basically been an offensively non-entity in Miami, but playing the extremely lackluster Colorado defense should help make them look better this time around. And let's face it, the Buckeye backups are probably still better than Colorado's starters at this point.
Oklahoma State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN2/ABC): Nothing like having your bye week in the first month of the season to ensure that you get most of the way to October with people still writing "well, we still don't know much about this team". I'm talking about TAMU here, as they've only played two games against SMU and Idaho. Points were scored, though, which seems a safe bet to carry into this game. I actually stayed up to watch part of that Oklahoma State-Tulsa game, and, well, it was kind of fun once but I won't exactly be pining for 10:00pm Pacific starts from the Big 12 in the future. Anyway, I think OSU wins in a shootout.
Florida State @ Clemson (ESPN): FSU should be able to bounce back against Clemson as long as they're not too bummed out about losing to Oklahoma. Also, Dabo Swinney is likely easily outfoxed by simple utensils, which gives a slight edge to most opposing coaches.
California @ Washington (FSN): Well, Washington got beat pretty bad by Nebraska, but that was expected. Cal is 3-0 but its best victory is an overtime win against Colorado, so at this point it would seem these teams are about evenly matched. In that case, I'll take Cal, where Jeff Tedford seems to have some of his offensive mojo back.
Virginia Tech @ Marshall (CBSS): By all rights, VPI should win this by 50, seeing as how Marshall is coming off a 44-7 loss to Ohio (as in, the university in Athens, Ohio). But seeing as how VPI only managed to beat ECU by 7 and Arkansas State by 19, expect the unexpected and take the under.
Kansas State @ Miami (ESNPU): Yeah, I have a feeling this won't end well for the Wildcats.
South Dakota @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin.
Southern Miss @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): I was tempted to pick the upset here, but looking at it, well, Virginia should probably win this one.

7:00:

Florida @ Kentucky (ESPN): Kentucky just lost to Louisville, so, well, I feel pretty good about UF in this one.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (ESPN2): Vandy's 3-0 folks! Enjoy it while it lasts, Commodore fans.
Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): With all this realignment talk, I am still baffled by Louisiana Tech's continued presence in the WAC. Maybe C-USA will get raided and they can join them or something. Anyway, Miss State should be able to get back its offensive footing as long as they don't have some general aversion to all teams with "Louisiana" in their name.
North Dakota State @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota. Well, probably.
Florida Atlantic @ Auburn (SEC/FSN): Auburn. Definitely.

7:30: Nebraska @ Wyoming (Versus): I'm assuming Wyoming still has their nice brown home unis (well, "nice", anyway), which may give you a reason to tune into this one.

8:00:

Louisiana State @ West Virginia (ABC): Will Morgantown survive the evening? WVU's got some talented players and an actual coach now, but LSU's defense should be able to keep them bottled up. But hey, it's college football's two rowdiest fanbases meeting up at night in a college town known for obscene t-shirts and a passion for furniture-based arson, which may be worth the price admission alone.
Missouri @ Oklahoma (FX): There'll probably be some points scored in this game, but the Sooners should prevail.
Tulsa @ Boise State (CBSS): Tulsa becomes the latest victims of the Boise State Death Machine, hopefully those kids got some sleep before having to travel west though.

10:15:

Southern California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Arizona State lost to Illinois? Oof. Um, yeah, going to have to go with the Trojans here.
Oregon @ Arizona (ESPN2): Arizona has already given up 37 points each to Oklahoma State and Stanford. Need I say more?

This Weekend in College Football: Week 3

2011-09-17T03:40:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Auburn @ Clemson (ABC): It's Tigers v. Tigers once again. Tough to predict, though. Clemson hasn't really done much of anything at all. Auburn meanwhile has escaped by the skin of its teeth twice so far this season against bad teams (Utah State) and decent teams (Mississippi State). Coaching matchups don't help either, as I trust Dabo and Chizik about as far as I can throw them. Complete tossup to me - I'll give the edge to Auburn.
Pennsylvania State @ Temple (ESPN): Meanwhile, Pitt wonders what it has to do to get some love from the Nittany Lions.
Pittsburgh @ Iowa (ESPN2): Speaking of Pitt (seriously, I didn't even realize this was next) they'll take on a moribund Iowa squad that just lost to Iowa State. If the Big East will make any noise this year, it has to start with games like this. Personally, I don't think they can do it.
West Virginia @ Maryland (ESPNU): Well, at least Maryland will look less wacky this time around. WVU should roll.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan (BTN): Given what we know now, which, granted, isn't much, at least Michigan is still playing an exciting brand of football. They shouldn't need any excitement or last minute heroics to beat Eastern Michigan, though.
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Every year it seems like this game is the game Ole Miss should win. And then they don't! That's why this is an underrated game to watch. That said, Ole Miss should still win though.

12:30:

Duke @ Boston College (ACC): I think BC can manage to win this one. The fact I'm even having to think about it says a lot more about BC than it does Duke.
Kansas @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): I tried briefly to think of a way to describe this game without drawing on last year's debacle. I can't. Allow me to play psychologist for a moment, though. Does drawing on a loss like that really work? Or do you get your players so worked up about avoiding another debacle on that scale that they screw up again, or perhaps in an even more horrific fashion than the previous time? I suppose there's only way to find out.

1:30: Colorado State vs. Colorado (@Denver, CO; FSN): This has to be one of the few mid-major vs. major rivalries out there, I would think. Or, at least one that forces the major portion of the equation to play it every year at a neutral site. Of course, having already suffered a 34-17 rout to a mid-major school, it's hard to go with the Buffs in this one.

3:30:

Michigan State @ Notre Dame (NBC): I don't think Sparty's going to need any last minute shenanigans to prevail over the Irish.
Tennessee @ Florida (CBS): I might tune in to the start of this one just to hear the CBS intro music. Chills up my spine, every time. Anyway, as for the actual game, Florida's had a couple of walkovers and so has Tennessee. For no apparent reason, I like the Gators in each of these teams' first true test.
Washington @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN): Speaking of revenge games, if there's anyone in this world who would be looking to avenge an embarrassing loss, it would be Bo Pellini. Nebraska wins going away.
Texas @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN/ABC): Texas found a semblance of an offense last weekend. UCLA hasn't had one of those in years.
Texas Tech @ New Mexico (Versus): I think even Tommy Tuberville can break 50 points in this one.
Virginia @ North Carolina (ESPNU): Both of these teams have close wins over shaky teams (Indiana and Rutgers, respectively) making this one hard to call. This should be a close slapflight of a game, probably breaking in favor of the Tar Heels.
Northwestern @ Army (CBSS): I've got a sinking feeling Army's going to straight to 0-3.
Miami @ Minnesota (BTN): Tune in to see Jerry Kill back on the sidelines for UMN, but otherwise this is the Miami in Ohio, so even the Gophers should be able to wax those guys.

4:00: Arkansas State @ Virginia Tech (ACC/FSN): Speaking of waxing, er, let's use another mataphor. Beatdown? That seems apropos for VPI, who won 17-10 last weekend at ECU. It'll be physical, and perhaps uncomfortably close, but VPI will get ahead and stay ahead sometime in the early 2nd half.

6:00: Navy @ South Carolina (ESPN2): South Carolina has the kind of defensive line that gives Paul Johnson derived offenses fits. Okay, in fairness, they'll give all sorts of offenses fits. Navy may try some unconventional tactics but I suspect Clowney will remind fans of the GT/Navy offense of the havok Da'Quan Bowers wrought for Clemson against Tech last year. Based on that, I don't think this one's going to be close.

7:00:

Louisville @ Kentucky (ESPNU): I guess this used to be a mid-major vs. major rivalry, but let's face it, this is just a warmup for basketball season anyway. Especially since the Wildcats should win this pretty easily against a banged up, not very good Louisville team.
Arizona State @ Illinois (BTN): I have a feeling that this may get ugly, and not in a good way for Illinois.
Kent State @ Kansas State (FCS): Ah, the Flashes are just the sort of out-of-conference opponent Bill Synder loves.

7:30:

Ohio State @ Miami (ESPN): First off, best nickname, far and away for this game: the Ineligibowl. With that out of the way, let's talk football. Both of these squads are depleted, yes, but only one of the managed to lose to Maryland two weeks ago and it wasn't Ohio State. Buckeyes should be able to get up for this one and prevail.
North Texas @ Alabama (SEC/FSN): Tide rolls.
Troy @ Arkansas (SEC): I love it when Troy plays the "plucky, hard-to-dispatch team from the Sun Belt" role but considering their shellacking from their game with Clemson it's hard to envision anything but a blowout against the Razorbacks

8:00:

Oklahoma @ Florida State (ABC): Listen carefully, and you will hear the sound of a million TV remotes being pressed to their local ABC stations for this one. That said, this may be the best FSU team in 10 years. I may even root for them in the off-chance a win by them restores some measure of respect for the ACC. But realistically, Oklahoma will line up with advantages on both sides of the ball and two weeks to prepare. Thanks to home field advantage, it probably won't be an embarrassment like last year, but it's hard to see how the end result will be different.
Syracuse @ Southern California (FX): Gus Johnson will try his best, but I highly doubt even he can rescue this probably snoozer in the Trojans' favor.

9:15: Utah @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): So when both those 8:00 games are decided, flip over here for the Holy War. This game is usually a lot of fun to watch, and it's nice to see that at least for now the game was preserved. Hard to say who's going to win this year's edition, but I'll give the Stormin' Mormons a slight edge.

10:00:

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (FSN): I like these late night games, though of course I am on the West Coast so they're not really that late. What all three of these probably will be, though, are blowouts. This one probably has the best chance to not be a complete blowout.
Hawaii @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): For instance, you see this game and you think it might be a shootout. You'd be wrong, though, as UNLV is probably one of the five worst teams in the country.

10:45: Stanford @ Arizona (ESPN): Arizona already gave up 37 points to Oklahoma State last week. Andrew Luck and Co. might double that.

College Football Rule Changes and You: 2011 Edition

2011-09-14T04:14:00.000-07:00

We last did this two years ago. With the publication of the 2009 rules, the NCAA moved to a 2-year cycle, so the next rulebook will not be issued until 2013. Therefore, this year's edition includes some of the most substantive changes since 2008, when the NCAA went to NFL-style timing rules.

As with past editions, the rule number and page number will be given. There are numerous small, mostly editorial changes to the rules, so we will only cover rules listed as "major changes" by the NCAA from the listing on page 6.

Rule 1-4-6-b (page 24): Gloves can now be any color.
Rule 1-4-11-Exc. (page 25): Monitors are now allowed in coaches' booths, as long as they only show the live telecast or webcast of the game.
Rule 3-4-4 (page 52): This rule is an overreaction to the events at the end of last year's Music City Bowl. I don't particularly care for it, and I think it is excessive. Anyway, this is the "Derek Dooley Rule":
ARTICLE 4. a. With the game clock running and less than one minute remaining in either half, if a player of either team commits a foul that causes the clock to stop, the officials may subtract 10 seconds from the game clock at the option of the offended team. The fouls that fall in this category include but are not limited to:
1. Any foul that prevents the snap (e.g., false start, encroachment, defensive offside by contact in the neutral zone, etc.);
2. Intentional grounding to stop the clock;
3. Incomplete illegal forward pass;
4. Backward pass thrown out of bounds to stop the clock;
5. Any other foul committed with the intent of stopping the clock.

The offended team may accept the yardage penalty and decline the 10-second subtraction. If the yardage penalty is declined the 10-second subtraction is declined by rule.
b. The 10-second rule does not apply if the game clock is not running when the foul occurs or if the foul does not cause the game lock to stop (e.g., illegal formation).
c. After the penalty is administered, if there is a 10-second subtraction, the game clock starts on the referee’s signal. If there is no 10-second subtraction, the game clock starts on the snap. d. If the fouling team has a timeout remaining they may avoid the 10-second subtraction by using a timeout. In this case the game clock starts on the snap after the timeout.
Remember, it is already illegal to commit fouls to purposely stop the clock (see Rule 3-4-3), usually resulting in the clock starting on the ready for play (i.e., when the ball is set). I think this rule is excessively punitive, as 10 seconds is a lot of time in end-of-half situations, and especially since it is not obvious (to me) that the confusion at the end of the Music City Bowl was designed to stop the clock. I think this may get revisited in 2013. At a minimum, it should be no more than 5 seconds. At best, it would be scrapped entirely.
Rule 3-5-3 (page 54): Clarification that if the offensive team breaks the huddle with more than 11 players or has more than 11 on the field or in the huddle for more than three seconds, or if the defensive team lingers too long with too many players, that play should be stopped immediately and the penalty called.
Rule 6-1-10 (page 63): This rule actually took effect last year. It outlaws the "wedge" formation, defining a wedge as "two or more players aligned shoulder to shoulder within 2 yards of each other", and further clarifies that it is illegal to form a wedge on kickoffs for the "purpose of blocking for the ball carrier". This is a 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty. Note that this is not called if there a touchback or if "the kick is from an obvious onside kick formation".
Rule 6-3-14 (page 66): This is a new rule that clarifies on place kicks, it is illegal for three defensive players inside the blocking zone to block one offensive player.
Rule 7-1-3-b-2 (Deleted): Rule 7-1 was extensively rewritten. The former rule 7-1-3-b-2 does not appear in the new text, however, making "locking" legs with the snapper illegal. The written 7-1 also clarifies the offense must be still for 1 second before a snap, or else it is a false start.
Rule 7-3-2 (page 73): This changes intentional grounding rule in the book to the way it is usually called by eliminating the requirement that the eligible receiver in the area has a "reasonable opportunity to catch the pass". I would really like to see a definition of "an area" though.
Rule 9-1-4 (page 84): Clarification that contact to the head or neck of a defenseless player with the "helmet, forearm, elbow, or shoulder" is a foul.
Rule 9-1-6 (page 84): The entire section on blocking below the waist has been rewritten. To give an idea of the extent of the changes, the rule originally read "Blocking below the waist is permitted except as follows" and then listed conditions in which is it was not legal to block below the waist. It now reads that "There shall be no blocking below the waist" and then lists exceptions to this rule. The exceptions are:
1. Against the runner.
2. Players on the offensive team on the line of scrimmage who are within seven yards of the player in the middle of the line (i.e., in the tackle box), in the backfield outside the tackle box, or in motion may block below the waist along the long axis of the field (i.e., only forward or backward) or toward the sideline they are adjacent to the snap (i.e., it is legal to block below the waist toward the nearest sideline, this is usually is only applicable to receivers on the edge of the formation, preventing them from blocking a player below the waist from behind by coming back toward the middle of the field, sometimes known as a "crackback block").
3. Offensive players inside the tackle box, either on the line of scrimmage or in the backfield.
4. Defensive players in the blocking zone except against offensive players waiting to receive a backward pass. (The blocking zone is distinct from the tackle box, in that is is defined as 5 yards in either direction from the middle lineman in an offensive formation and 3 yards forward or back. It also ceases to exist when the ball leaves the zone.)
Basically, this is a continued effort by the rules committee to clarify blocking below the waist. As far as I can tell comparing the old rule and the new, there are no substantive differences in the actual a
Rule 9-1-7-c (page 85): It is illegal for a player clearly out-of-bounds to block an opponent who is also out-of-bounds.
Rule 9-2-1 (page 87): The most famous rule change of the offseason, most likely. Essentially, this change makes unsportsmanlike conduct fouls that occur while the ball in in play enforceable as live-ball fouls. Whereas before all such fouls be administered after the result of the play, this means these fouls can now be enforced from the spot where the occur or from the previous line of scrimmage. The infamous part is where this is brandied about as "taking touchdowns off the board" since now a player highstepping into the end zone before getting there will be penalized 15 yards from the spot and the touchdown will not count. This almost happened at the end of the Utah-USC game last weekend, except that the unsportsmanlike conduct was on the USC bench (since they ran onto the field while the ball was in play after a blocked FG) and is therefore still supposed to be administered from the succeeding spot (in other words, the touchdown still counts).
The vast majority of unsportsmanlike conduct flags for excessive celebration I've ever seen occur after the touchdown has been scored. Therefore, I think the impact of this rule has been vastly overstated and is probably somewhat unlikely to ever be called except in egregious cases. We shall see, though.
Rule 9-4 (page 93): Batting balls and illegal kicks are now 10 yard penalties instead of 15 yards.
Page 12-3-5 (page 103): This rule actually took effect last year. This allows officials, in some circumstances, to use instant replay to determine if the clock stopped inappropriately at the end of the half. This is the "Texas Rule": instant replay was used to put 1 second back on the clock at the end of the 2009 Big 12 Championship Game, allowing Texas the chance to kick the game winning field goal.

And that's about it. I highly recommend downloading the rule book (linked back in the first paragraph). It's a handy reference and who knows, you might learn something.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

2011-09-10T04:03:00.000-07:00

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Oregon State @ Wisconsin (ESPN): So did you hear that Oregon State lost to Sacramento State last week? Yeah....
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State (ESPN2): This may end up being closer than the other noon Big Ten game. Okay, probably not, but still.
Iowa @ Iowa State (FSN): I'm sure the Cyclones will give it the ole college try, but it's hard to see how they will prevail in the end.
Central Michigan @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Speaking of bad losses, did you see that Louisville lost to FIU last night? Yeah, anyway, Kentucky should still prevail here.
San Diego State @ Army (CBSS): Army's not off to a good start this season, and I doubt it will get better against the Aztecs.
Toledo @ Ohio State (BTN): Comparing their depth charts, Ohio State should be able to win this with 30 players, much less 85.
Mississippi State @ Auburn (SEC): So remember that time Auburn almost lost to Utah State? Oh, wait, that was last week. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs handled their mid-major patsy with easy, obliterating a hapless Memphis squad 59-14. Now, Auburn did rally in the 4th quarter and eventually get their act together, so presumably motivation will not be an issue in this first test of the Tigers' mettle. I still have to go with Miss State though.

12:30: Rutgers @ North Carolina (ACC): My thoughts on this game: "eh". I think UNC will win.

3:30:

Alabama @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): Okay, now things get interesting. Well, sort of. I'm going to roll with the conventional wisdom that between two teams with uncertain quarterback situations and the likely return of Alabama's stout 2009-style defense, this will be a slow scoring affair that ultimately ends in the Tide's favor.
Cincinnati @ Tennessee (ESPN2): I've been to both Cincy and Knoxville now, and I have to say, I don't really want to live in either. I think I liked Knoxville better though so I'll go with the Vols.
Nevada @ Oregon (FX): Last Saturday, Oregon entered the Les Miles Reality Distortion Field, waking up several hours later with no memory of where they had been or how they ended up with a 40-27 loss. However, someone told Chip Kelly that Chris Ault has all the answers, setting us up for a thrilling action movie style obliteration of the Wolfpack. 60+ points for the Ducks may not be out of the question.
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina (FSN): VPI was lauded last week for actually managing to beat their DI-AA opponent in convincing fashion. So that means this week it's back to Business as Usual for Beamerball. Hokies win 22-20 on a blocked PAT return.
Texas Christian @ Air Force (Versus): Yeah, so about that TCU being awesome thing. While Boise took care of business against the Bulldogs, TCU lost to Baylor and had their vaunted defense shredded in the process. (Well, technically they lost to Robert Griffin III, but anyway.) Maybe they did it on purpose to spite the Mountain West moving the TCU-Boise game from Fort Worth to Boise. Anyway, damage is now done. TCU's defense doesn't get a rest, however, switching gears to defending Air Force's custom triple option attack. They should come out on top this time, though.
Stanford @ Duke (ESPNU): What's the over/under on this game? Let's see.... ah, 110. I would take the over if I thought Duke would put up more than 10 points. Then again, that still might not be a bad idea.
Purdue @ Rice (CBSS): This is actually kind of a tossup. Which is more of a statement about Purdue than Rice. I mean, the Boilermakers should win, but this may be the pick I'll be the least sure about all day.
Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern (BTN): Thankfully, this one does not give me pause. NU wins.
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ACC): Some years, Wake Forest is a plucky, hard to deal with opponent that gives the rest of the ACC a run for it's money. I don't think this is one of them.

4:30: South Carolina @ Georgia (ESPN): By all rights, South Carolina should win. There is a strong trend I've seen on other sites of not really believing the situation and that the Gamecocks can stand up to the pressure. But know this: it would be so awesome if UGA is 0-2 after today.

7:00:

Brigham Young @ Texas (ESPN2): Narrow, offensively-challenged 14-13 victories over Ole Miss do not inspire much confidence heading into Austin.
Texas-El Paso @ Southern Methodist (FSN): Let's see... UTEP had to go to OT to beat Stony Brook last week, meaning they should rout SMU this week.
New Mexico @ Arkansas (ESPNU): I think the most interesting aspect of this game is that's a home game at Arkansas's other stadium, War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock.
Fresno State @ Nebraska (BTN): I still admire Pat Hill's willingness to play anyone, anywhere, but I doubt after the welfare fraud thing that broke the other day that this game is going to improve his mood much.
Alabama-Birmingham @ Florida (SEC): BLAZERS. GATORS. FEEL THE EXCITEMENT. Well, excitement-like-substance anyway.

7:30:

Utah @ Southern California (Versus): Oh, right, this is a conference game now. Well, Utes, you wanted to sit at the table with the big boys. Time to prove you belong. Trojans should still win.
Connecticut @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Well, they both beat their DI-AA opponents last week so I can't really tell how bad or not bad these two teams are. I'll go with Vandy 'cause I like them better.
Georgia Tech @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN3): Meanwhile, mere miles outside of Nashville will be supposedly the first sellout in the history of MTSU DI-A football. GT still had plenty of mistakes last week. Bad snaps are one thing - I'm still mad about the sloppiness on special teams, including two boneheaded plays on punts on a blocked field goal. I find the carryover of one of last year's biggest problems a troubling concern. Outside of that, it was fun to see this, if only for a little while:

Anyway, it's hard to make an overall judgement about the team at this point. Last year, this is where we faltered. Will we stand up to scrutiny this time?

8:00:

Notre Dame @ Michigan (ESPN): This was supposed to be an EPIC CLASH and two midwestern powers RETURNED TO GREATNESS. A funny thing happened on the way here, though, namely that ND went and lost to South Florida. Whoops. The Wolverines dispatched their directional school opponent (though, in fairness, USF could beat Western Michigan every day and twice on Sundays) with ease. Notre Dame probably won't go down as easy, but it's hard to imagine the Irish getting the stops they need or the offense they need either. Brian Kelly may spontaneously combust, though. So there's a reason to watch.
Boston College @ Central Florida (CBSS): I have a bad feeling about this. You don't just walk into Bright House Networks Stadium and expect to leave without a fight. Also, UCF scored 62 points last year, which BC may not score for another 2 or 3 games.

Apologies for the lateness, it's been a busy week. For me, at least, this is my first full Saturday of football, and believe me, I am looking forward to it. For my musings as the day goes on, you could do worse than subscribe to my Twitter feed. Much worse. Until then.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

2011-09-01T15:37:00.000-07:00

So this is my quick look at each weekend's games. Note that this does not usually include Thursday and Friday games, as there are only a few games. (Since this is week one, I am listing all applicable games from Thursday to Monday, however.) My source for schedules is mostly Matt Sarz's website which is one of the most comprehensives sites of its kind around.

Regardless of what is one TV, I will only list contests involving Division I-A teams on national networks, with exceptions for ACC and SEC teams (since I care about them). Also, Georgia Tech is always listed, even if the game is not on TV. When a game is listed as being on two or more networks, the network showing the game in most of the country will be listed first, followed by the other networks in order. For instance, a common listing is "ABC/ESPN2", which means the game will primarily be shown on ABC stations nationwide, but if it is not on ABC in a particular area, it will be on ESPN2. Many ACC and SEC games are shown on regional syndication under the banners of the "ACC Network" and "SEC Network". I will list these games as "ACC" and "SEC" respectively, and these games are almost always available on espn3.com. For Big Ten Network games, these are listed as "BTN" and only the game being shown on most systems nationwide will be listed. Games listed as "FSN" will be shown on most or all Fox Sports Net affiliates nationally, including states owned by Comcast that are known as "Comcast Sports Net". "CBSS" refers to the cable channel formerly known as "CBS College Sports".

As for colleges, I use no nicknames or shortenings other than "Tech", even for those certain other Techs that are actually full-fledged universities. This season I am referring to the "University of Miami" and "Miami University" as "Miami". Yes, this seems contradictory when I type out "Agricultural and Mechanical" instead of "A&M".

I also make some statements and attempt to predict the outcome of each game. Which is why I always lead off with:

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
6:00: Murray State @ Louisville (ESPNU): This is in 20 minutes, but I feel pretty confident that the outcome of this isn't really in doubt. That said, watch it anyway because it's REAL ACTUAL LIVE FOOTBALL.

7:30: Western Carolina @ Georgia Tech (ESPN3): My other unwritten/written rule is that I don't predict the outcome of GT games. For this one, I just hope we have the backups in for the second half.

8:00:

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Wisconsin (ESPN): This is the first "real" game on the list, as in it features two DI-A teams. That said, this is still an exhibition for Wisconsin to break in Russell Wilson and get the denizens of Madison used to this "forward pass" thing they've heard so much about.
Mississippi State @ Memphis (FSN): The only thing in doubt about this game is when Dan Mullen will call off his dogs.

9:15: Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky (@Nashville, TN; ESPNU): I think I said this twice during the schedule preview, but why on Earth are two teams from Kentucky playing a game in Tennessee? Well, I guess if I really cared that much I would just look it up. Anyway, Wildcats should roll, but it may be worth tuning in to see if Western Kentucky's mascot/nightmare fuel is present.

Friday
7:30: Youngstown State @ Michigan State (BTN): Sparty rolls.

8:00: Texas Christian @ Baylor (ESPN): It'll be up to Robert Griffin to keep the Bears competitive in this contest. Nonetheless, Baylor's lack of a defense should doom them in the end, though this could be an entertaining shootout.

Saturday
Noon:

Akron @ Ohio State (ESPN): This is not one of the games the Buckeyes are worried about.
Utah State @ Auburn (ESPN2): Auburn may be completely rebuilding this year, but the Aggies shouldn't give them any issues.
Miami @ Missouri (FSN): For as many times as I mentioned Miami University in my schedule preview, maybe I should see which mid-major teams have the most brutal OOC schedules somedays. Have to pay the bills somehow, I suppose.
Northwestern @ Boston College (ESPNU): By all rights, BC should win this game. But Northwestern actually attempts to play offensive football, which I think will give them an edge on this day.
Kent State @ Alabama (SEC): Somewhat appropriately, the Tide rolls in this game.
Indiana State @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): I was hoping the one game featuring two DI-A teams (MTSU @ Purdue) would be featured, but alas. A walk-over for Penn State.

12:30: Appalachian State @ Virginia Tech (ACC): I wish I were kidding when I said this may be Virginia Tech's toughest OOC game. Hokes get to 1-0 with ease.

3:30:

South Florida @ Notre Dame (NBC): With easily the most hype they've had coming into a season in years, we'll get an early taste if it's deserved or not. Touchdown Jesus should be pleased, though.
Minnesota @ Southern California (ABC/ESPN2): AGH SO LITTLE TIME RUNNING OUT OF FUNNY (WELL KIND OF FUNNY, THROW ME A BONE HERE) THINGS TO SAY. Oh, yeah, Trojans roll.
Western Michigan @ Michigan (ESPN2/ABC): Hail to the victors, etc., etc.
California-Los Angeles @ Houston (FSN): If I recall correctly, UCLA's defense was pretty abysmal last year. I don't remember how many yards Case Keenum needs for the record, but, well, he might have a shot here. Unless it's like 2000, in which case probably not. (Um, no pun intended there.)
Louisiana-Monroe @ Florida State (ESPNU): FSU rolls.
Delaware @ Navy (CBSS): Navy rolls, and since they run the ball, this is somewhat more literal.
Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Nebraska (BTN): UTC is known as the "Mocs". I've been there a few times. That's really all I got.
James Madison @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC ought to win this.

4:45: Brigham Young @ Mississippi (ESPN): The Right Reverend Houston Nutt takes on the Stormin' Mormons in what should be a decent game. Ole Miss is probably the weakest team in the SEC West this year, and I think BYU could well win this.

7:00:

Florida Atlantic @ Florida (ESPNU): Howard Schnellenberger's suspenders probably won't be enough for the Owls to overtake the Gators in this one.
East Carolina vs. South Carolina (@Charlotte, NC; SEC): Remember, East Carolina is not, in fact, a state, and refers to Eastern North Carolina. Marcus Lattimore rolls.

7:30: Elon @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I think even Vandy can feel good about this one.

8:00:

Oregon vs. Louisiana State (@Arlington, TX; ABC): This is the game of the day. Two teams who could still be in the top 10 at the end of the year matching up at a neutral site in a huge game. Will Oregon's fast pace offensive juggernaut prevail, or will the Les Miles Effect be fully in... effect for this game? It's hard to say. But even though they do play defense, LSU's inability to move the ball (even before their starting QB got suspended) doesn't bode well for their chances.
Boise State vs. Georgia (@Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Kellen Moore and co. enter into what will probably be a very biased neutral site. For the sake of all that is good and right with the world, the Broncos must prevail.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma (FX): Yes, you probably get FX. Flip over when the other games are in a commercial break. But hey, at least Tulsa gets to play both OU and OSU this year.

10:00: Louisiana Tech @ Southern Mississippi (FSN): I think it kind of sucks that Central Time zone schools have to play these late starts so networks can fill these awkward late night timeslots. Doesn't affect me though, but still. Also USM should win.

10:15: Colorado @ Hawaii (ESPN2): Now this is real late night football. Every kickoff at 10 PM Eastern or later should feature a Pac-12 or WAC team, I think. Colorado should win this, but there is a rather distinct possibility they won't.

Sunday
3:30: Marshall @ West Virginia (ESPN): This is technically a rivalry game. It's a rather lopsided rivalry, but still one nonetheless.

7:30: Southern Methodist @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): I wish I could come up with a logical reason for TAMU to leave the Big 12. I really can't, though. Which makes the whole thing harder to understand. SMU is hoping to take their spot I would guess, but they will probably get stomped here.

Monday
8:00: Miami @ Maryland (ESPN): Even with their depleted roster, Miami's backups are still probably better than Maryland's current starters. Year 1 of the Randy Edsall era probably won't get off to a very pretty start.

And there's week one! Hopefully next week I'll finally get a chance to talk about college football's rule changes. Until then...

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

2011-09-01T04:33:00.000-07:00

The college football season, mercifully, starts today. But before getting into the schedule for the weekend, let's take a quick look back at the best, and worst, of this season's out-of-conference scheduling.

First, some dishonorable mentions: North Carolina State (2 DI-AA teams, the only ones to do so this year) and Kentucky (for scheduling a neutral site game with Western Kentucky in Tennessee).

But who had the worst overall schedules in college football? Well, here's a sample of all the teams that got a 0 for their scheduling:

Virginia Tech: Appalachian State, @East Carolina, Arkansas State, Marshall. This is really kind of embarrassing. Appy State could well be the best team on the list. Nonetheless, it's only the second or third worst schedule.
Washington State: Idaho State, Nevada-Las Vegas, @San Diego State. See, Wazzou is just kind of terrible, so this is at least understandable. As in, they're so bad that it's entirely possible they'll lose to SDSU.
Mississippi State: @Memphis, Louisiana Tech, @Alabama-Birmingham, Tennessee-Martin. Also embarrassing. Miss State used to be bad, yes, but they've gotten better. There's no reason to schedule like this anymore. Well, except for the four guaranteed wins I guess.
Texas Tech: Texas State, @New Mexico, Nevada. It's either these guys or Miss State that's the worst. I'm going to go with this, simply because Texas Tech has been on the "shame" list for three consecutive years now, and it's not like Tommy Tuberville's going to rock the boat in this regard.

So who has the top schedule in all the land? Again, I am mostly considering not only score, but also interesting ineter-sectional matchups that aren't rivalry games. So, without further adieu, the top six OOC schedules for the 2011 season are:
6. Southern California: Minnesota, Syracuse, Notre Dame. Barely makes the list, but these are all major conference schools, technically. Er... maybe I should've just gone with a top 5. Anyway.
5. Maryland: West Virginia, Temple, Towson, N-Notre Dame. UMD and WVU do play a lot, but it's not an every-year sort of affair. Combined with the ND game and this is pretty decent.
4. Florida State: Louisiana-Monroe, Charleston Southern, Oklahoma, @Florida. @Florida being a rivalry game hurts this schedule a bit, but that will be the icing on the cake if the Seminoles somehow triumph over the Sooners.
3. Oregon State: Sacramento State, @Wisconsin, Brigham Young. Again, this is a good slate, with a cross-country road trip to Madison and a visit from the Stormin' Mormons.
2. Pittsburgh: Buffalo, Maine, @Iowa, Notre Dame, Utah. Feels like Pitt appears on this list every year, but at least they use the 5-game OOC schedule to their advantage. Yes, they play ND every year but Iowa is pretty underrated every year and Utah is Utah. Solid, and again, maybe a platform to do a little more than get to the Orange Bowl.
1. Louisiana State: N-Oregon, Northwestern State, @West Virginia, Western Kentucky. Oregon and WVU on the same schedule made this decision pretty easy. Especially coming from a conference usually accused of ducking interesting OOC games, LSU knocks it out of the park with two potentially great and interesting games.

And finally, let's close with the conference "legit" averages. That is, the average "legit"-ness of each conference's OOC schedule:

Pac-12: 0.323
ACC: 0.281
Big East: 0.263
Big 12: 0.25
Big Ten: 0.203
SEC: 0.203

The tie between the Big Ten and SEC was broken by the number of DI-AA teams played (10 vs. 12, respectively).

So, with that, let's talk some actual football! I'm excited, you're excited, we're all excited! Stay tuned for the weekend TV guide.

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: SEC

2011-09-01T04:07:00.000-07:00

And it is time, finally, for the Southeastern Conference. Fun fact: every SEC team plays a DI-AA team this year.

Louisiana State (2 legit, 1 DI-AA): N-Oregon, Northwestern State, @West Virginia, Western Kentucky. Mea culpa: apparently when I wrote the WVU preview I said that game would be in Baton Rouge. Well, it isn't. Flip everything around and what I wrote still applies, I think. As for the Oregon game, go look at the Pac-12 post.
Georgia (1.5, 1): N-Boise State, Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State, @Georgia Tech. Man, I really hope Boise wins. That's all I got for this.
Alabama (1, 1): Kent State, @Pennsylvania State, North Texas, Georgia Southern. A rare, but highly encouraged, SEC-Big Ten matchup with two traditional powers meeting. Always in favor of that. Also, at least this GSU won't be quite the punching bag the other one was.
Arkansas (1, 1): Missouri State, New Mexico, Troy, N-Texas Agricultural and Mechanical. Even though it is part of a now long-running series, I still put Arkansas over Florida because the TAMU game isn't required.
Florida (1, 1): Florida Atlantic, Alabama-Birmingham, Furman, Florida State. Unlike the Florida-Florida State game. This is pretty much a bare minimum schedule right here.
Auburn (0.75, 1): Utah State, @Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Samford. Again, see the above, re: optional OOC games versus rivalry games.
South Carolina (0.75, 1): N-East Carolina, Navy, Citadel, Clemson. East Carolina keeps fooling me. They should just join the Big East already.
Mississippi (0.5, 1): Brigham Young, Southern Illinois, @Fresno State, Louisiana Tech. This is almost kind of a real schedule for Ole Miss. BYU and a road game to a west coast school? Almost downright unheard of.
Tennessee (0.5, 1): Montana, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee State. Not much to see here, moving on.
Vanderbilt (0.5, 1): Elon, Connecticut, Army, @Wake Forest. Well, even Vandy has to start from somewhere, and at least they've got a schedule that they should at least break even with.
Kentucky (0.25, 1): N-Western Kentucky, Central Michigan, Louisville, Jacksonville State. Note that the Louisville game is a rivalry game. Are these guys even trying? Note that the Western Kentucky game is at a neutral site: Nashville. I'm not sure who thought it'd be great for two Kentucky schools to play a game in Tennessee. For a long time I've joked that Memphis is actually the capital of Mississippi - maybe Nashville serves a similar role for their neighbors to the north?
Mississippi State (0, 1): @Memphis, Louisiana Tech, @Alabama-Birmingham, Tennessee-Martin. I wonder someone hoodwinked the Bulldogs into thinking Alabama still plays a couple of home games at Legion Field every year and didn't realize they were going to play UAB until the schedule for this year had to be published.

Next up, some final thoughts.

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Pac-12

2011-09-01T03:51:00.000-07:00

As per usual, the Pacific 12 leads the land in terms of scheduling out-of-conference teams. Somewhat bizarrely, though, they elected to keep the 9 game conference schedule despite now having 12 teams. I like having 9 conference games when that means the conference will play a full round-robin, but otherwise I'm not sure it makes sense. Yes, it produces more meaningful games, but otherwise there's not a meaningful upside.

Southern California (1.5 legit, 0 DI-AA): Minnesota, Syracuse, @Notre Dame. USC always plays pretty decent OOC schedules, but this is about as low as you can currently go and say you schedule three BCS conference teams short of scheduling Vanderbilt and Duke.
Oregon State (1.5, 1): Sacramento State, @Wisconsin, Brigham Young. Nonetheless, the three BCS teams are sufficient to beat out Oregon State's Wisconsin and BYU combo, though playing a DI-AA team certainly doesn't help.
Stanford (1.25, 0): San Jose State, @Duke, Notre Dame. Well, they have Notre Dame on the schedule. In reality, their ticket to the national title game will probably be decided when they play Oregon.
Colorado (1.5, 0): @Hawaii, California, N-Colorado State, @Ohio State. Yes, that's four non-conference games due to the Hawaii rule. Oh yeah, there's also that bizarre already scheduled Cal game that is now a non-conference conference game. Strangeness all around. Remember, though I show the raw "legit" score this ranking is actually based on the average, which means the extra OOC game is accounted for (and hence why they rank below Stanford).
California-Los Angeles (1, 0): @Houston, San Jose State, Texas. This may actually be pretty tough for UCLA. Considering their defensive woes Case Keenum could well break the NCAA passing record in this game alone.
Oregon (1, 1): N-Louisiana State, Nevada, Missouri State. Oregon-LSU has to be one of the top intersectional matchups of the year. Yes, there's also UGA-Boise State. That game, though, will lack Oregon's frenetic offensive pace up against the "they have no idea what the hell they're doing" pace of Les Miles and co.
Washington (1, 1): Eastern Washington, Hawaii, @Nebraska. Washington's prospects in the return trip to Lincoln look, shall we say, dim.
Arizona State (1, 1): California-Davis, Missouri, @Illinois. Funny how, in a year where Missouri and Illinois stop their renewed series, Arizona State manages to play both. Not that I'm complaining, mind you.
Utah (1, 1): Montana State, @Brigham Young, @Pittsburgh. Utah will try to earn its newfound major conference cred by beating the team that arguably launched it to where it is today, Pitt.
Arizona (1, 1): Northern Arizona, @Oklahoma State, Louisiana-Lafayette. I can't think of anything funny to say about this schedule, so moving on.
California (0.25, 1): N-Fresno State, @Colorado, Presbyterian. Again, yes, that Colorado game is not a Pac-12 game. Whoops! Also, Presbyterian is located in Clinton, South Carolina, which is a heck of a long way from Berkeley in more ways than just distance, I would suspect.
Washington State (0, 1): Idaho State, Nevada-Las Vegas, @San Diego State. Well, there's at least one win on this schedule for Paul Wulff and Co.

Next up, the SEC, and followed by a quick wrap-up.

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Big 12

2011-09-01T01:45:00.000-07:00

Now, finally, here is the Big 12. Well, hopefully. It could well cease to exist by the time I finish writing this.

Oklahoma (1 legit, 0 DI-AA): Tulsa, @Florida State, Ball State. Oklahoma-Florida State may turn out to be one of the most pivotal games of the year for the preseason #1 team, because the rest of this OOC schedule won't be. Still, though, the single game in Tallahassee was enough to vault the Sooners over Texas for the #1 spot here.
Texas (1, 0): Rice, Brigham Young, @California-Los Angeles. Quantity does not always beat quality. Though we did rate newly independent BYU this year, Texas should still handle them and moribund UCLA.
Baylor (1, 1): Texas Christian, Stephen F. Austin, Rice. It's the Robert Griffin show down in Waco. Will it be enough to get them past TCU?
Iowa State (1, 1): Northern Iowa, Iowa, @Connecticut. Well, at least Iowa and Iowa State will no longer be playing for that awful corn trophy. I have a feeling we kind of hated on the Hawkeyes in our ratings, but oh well.
Kansas State (1, 1): Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, @Miami. Yes, this is that Miami. Otherwise this schedule is very Bill Synder-esque, which leads me to think that once Miami slides off the rotation we'll see the K-State schedules of old.
Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (0.75, 1): Southern Methodist, Idaho, N-Arkansas. Once again, a school shuns the deafening environment of KIBBIE DOME by cowardly playing away from the CRUCIBLE OF POTATO PAIN. I still like the on-going series with Arkansas at Jerry Jones's Intergalactic Space Palace, though.
Kansas (0.75, 1): McNeese State, Northern Illinois, @Georgia Tech. A good first step for KU would probably be to actually beat their DI-AA opponent this year. (No comment on the part where they beat us.)
Oklahoma State (0.5, 0): Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, @Tulsa. In case you're wondering, it's about 71.4 miles from Stillwater to Tulsa. Google Maps also tells me it takes an 1:14 to drive there, which given the way these two teams will probably sling the ball around may be how long it takes to play each quarter.
Missouri (0.5, 1): Miami, @Arizona State, Western Illinois. That's the Miami in Oxford, OH. There's also a game in Tempe, which is nice, I guess.
Texas Tech (0, 1): Texas State, @New Mexico, Nevada. Last year, that Nevada game probably would've been fun. As far as New Mexico goes, well, the team's coach probably has a better chance of literally punching you in the mouth than his football team figuratively does.

Sorry if it feels like I'm a bit of a hurry, but well, that's because I am. Anyway, next up is the Pac-12!

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

2011-08-31T03:51:00.000-07:00

And this time I was right! This is totally not the Big 12. See, for starters, there are twelve teams, so it's obviously the Big Ten. Sheesh.

Ohio State (1.25 legit, 0 DI-AA): Akron, Toledo, @Miami, Colorado. You have to feel for the Buckeyes, and their back-and-forth saga over the past few weeks. When the massive scandal at Miami broke, surely OSU partisans gave themselves a chance against a depleted Hurricane squad. Well, not any more, as most of the current players involved have been suspended for only one game while the Ohio 5 Minus One will still be on the bench. Even so, they should still beat the other three OOC teams.
Michigan (1, 0): Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State. Here by virtue of not playing any DI-AA teams, pretty much.
Pennsylvania State (1, 1): Indiana State, Alabama, @Temple, Eastern Michigan. If it weren't for the Sycamores (a.k.a, "Hey, remember when Larry Bird went here?" State University) this would probably be the best schedule in the Big Ten, despite the rating. It may well still be. I'll touch on this throughout the season, but I think Alabama will be back in a big way this year.
Minnesota (1, 1): @Southern California, New Mexico State, Miami, North Dakota State. The rating isn't wrong - that's the Miami in Oxford, OH. Unfortunately for the Gophers, a sign of progress will probably be solidly beating NMSU and NDSU, much less this particular Miami (not to mention USC).
Michigan State (1, 1): Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, @Notre Dame, Central Michigan. Well, CMU just isn't the same with Dan "Rust Belt Tebow" LeFevour, so pretty much all to get excited about here is the road trip to South Bend.
Purdue (1, 1): Middle Tennessee State, @Rice, Southeast Missouri State, Notre Dame. Rated below Michigan State because they get the Irish at home.
Wisconsin (0.75, 1): Nevada-Las Vegas, Oregon State, N-Northern Illinois, South Dakota. I think the only way to get a team more opposite of Wisconsin matched up is if they played Oregon itself, but this will have to do.
Iowa (0.75, 1): Tennessee Tech, @Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Louisiana-Monroe. I have a feeling we underrated Pitt this year, but years of mediocrity of under the Wannstache can do that.
Illinois (0.5, 1): Arkansas State, South Dakota State, Arizona State, Western Michigan. Did you know that Ron Zook is still actually the head coach at Illinois? Yeah, I know! I'm as surprised as you are. Well, suffice it to say that if UIUC managed to drop any of these games beside Arizona State he might finally get canned. And what happened to that matchup against Mizzou? That was fun.
Northwestern (0.5, 1): @Boston College, Eastern Illinois, @Army, Rice. Well, they're Northwestern. Can you blame them?
Nebraska (0.5, 1): Tennessee-Chattanooga, Fresno State, Washington, @Wyoming. I think the most wrong I was about anything all of last season was the damn Holiday Bowl, when Washington stomped on Nebraska. But seriously, I still don't see how the Huskers won't end up 4-0 against this schedule. Well, unless the Wyoming home brown unis simply beat them into submission with ugliness. (Note: they are objectively ugly. I like them, personally, but I also enjoyed using pink/purple/green as a motif in my Create-A-School teams in old versions of NCAA football.)
Indiana (0.5, 1): N-Ball State, Virginia, South Carolina State, @North Texas. The game with Ball State is in Indianapolis, which is understandable. Less so is the road trip to Denton, which I hope was a 2-for-1.

And next, at long last, the Big 12. Provided it still exists tomorrow.

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Big East

2011-08-30T22:19:00.000-07:00

I accidentally said that the Big 12 would be next. What I actually meant was that the Big East would be next. Whoops! Let's get this out of the way then.

Pittsburgh (2.5 legit, 1 DI-AA): Buffalo, Maine, @Iowa, Notre Dame, Utah. There aren't very many strong schedules in college football this year. Sure, Buffalo and Maine are gimmes, but a road date with Iowa and home games with Notre Dame and Utah make this a worthy schedule. (I have to admit: I forgot Utah was in the Pac-12 this year when I first computed Pitt's rating.) If Pitt and WVU can get their acts together, each could go into the Backyard Brawl on November 25th with a shot at the national title on the line.
South Florida (2, 1): @Notre Dame, Ball State, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical, Texas-El Paso, Mami. I wonder if Miami fans imagine having a rivalry with USF based on actually being in South Florida instead of Tampa. Anyway, between "da U" and a road date with Notre Dame, this is one of the stronger schedules in the Big East.
West Virginia (1.5, 1): Marshall, Norfolk State, @Maryland, Louisiana State, Bowling Green State. West Virginia fans in Baton Rouge? I don't think I would want to be there personally, but I can imagine there will be some great stories from this mixture of two of the craziest fanbases in college football. If it's a night game (and by all rights, it should be), Baton Rogue may well be leveled by sunrise. The road game in College Park is just frosting on the crazy cake, but if WVU can sweep this schedule they will have a shot at a darkhorse national title run.
Syracuse (1.25, 1): Wake Forest, Rhode Island, @Southern California, Toledo, @Tulane. At USC is obviously the highlight here. This is why I usually rank the schedules by their averages, because having five non-conference opponents really dilutes schedules in the Big East. Thankfully, TCU will remedy that next year.
Cincinnati (1.25, 1): Austin Peay, @Tennessee, Akron, North Carolina State, @Miami. Yes, USC+Wake Forest beat out Tennessee+NC State. Sorry. Also, that is a road game in Oxford, Ohio. I would imagine there'll be a lot of Bearcat fans in attendance, though.
Louisville (1, 1): Murray State, Florida International, @Kentucky, Marshall, @North Carolina. Sweet, I can make the "I wish this were a basketball game" joke twice this year for Louisville! Provided what I just said doesn't count, of course.
Rutgers (0.5, 1): North Carolina Central, @North Carolina, Ohio, Navy, N-Army. Playing both service academies doesn't really seem patriotic so much as searching for two easy wins. Of course, considering how Rutgers is doing these days, the Navy game could be kind of dicey.
Connecticut (0.5, 1): Fordham, @Vanderbilt, Iowa State, @Buffalo, Western Michigan. Vandy and Iowa State are about as low as you can go and still claim you play two BCS conference teams. I guess Duke wasn't available, or they would be on here as well.

Next time is still the not Big 12, as the Big Ten is rightfully next in alphabetical order. So, until then!

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

2011-08-30T02:50:00.000-07:00

As a group this year, ACC teams have the 3rd most prestigious non-conference schedules in the country. Sadly, the ACC also has the only major conference school that plays two DI-AA (better known these days as DI-FCS) teams, North Carolina State.

So how do the individual schools rank? Below I provide their "legit" average and number of DI-AA teams played. Ties are broken by number of DI-AA teams played and then arbitrarily.

Florida State (2 legit, 1 DI-AA): Louisiana-Monroe, Charleston Southern, Oklahoma, @Florida. Florida is a rivalry game of course, but the main reason FSU comes out on top two years in a row is the conclusion of the series with Oklahoma. It doesn't hurt that the Sooners are also the pre-season consensus number one team. I don't generally put a lot of stock in the pre-season polls (other than examining their undue influence on the polls later in the season), but remember this is more about prestige than any real objective criteria.
Maryland (2, 1): West Virginia, Temple, Towson, N-Notre Dame. I just spent 20 minutes trying to figure out whether the Notre Dame game at Landover, MD is a true neutral site game. I think it is. I also just realized I don't really have anything else to say about this schedule.
Clemson (1.75, 1): Troy, Wofford, Auburn, @South Carolina. We get Tigers-Tigers once again, and this time at Clemson. I was tempted just now to refer to Clemson as the "purple" tigers to distinguish them from Auburn, but then I realized it's not really unique because LSU uses purple as well. Go figure.
Miami (1.75, 1): Ohio State, Kansas State, Bethun-Cookman, @South Florida. Most folks figure the kickoff of the season will put an end to the "here's a list of everything that is wrong with college athletics and why" articles that have dominated the off-season. That'll all be back for one last gasp during the week leading up to Miami-Ohio State, I'll bet.
Wake Forest (1.5, 1): @Syracuse, Gardner-Webb, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt. Technically, Wake Forest plays more BCS conference teams than any other team in the ACC. Technically.
Boston College (1.25, 1): Northwestern, @Central Florida, Massachusetts, @Notre Dame. Yes, the tiebreaker here really was Northwestern over Kansas. I'm not proud of that, but I'd say Notre Dame and Georgia are a push for neutral fans. Unless UGA actually lives up to the hype this year. Well, same goes for Notre Dame I suppose.
Georgia Tech (1.25, 1): Western Carolina, @Middle Tennessee State, Kansas, Georgia. I'm not excited about this non-conference slate. For those of you scoring at home, the game in Murfeesboro is part of a 2-for-1 deal. Man, I hope we beat Kansas this year.
Duke (0.75, 1): Richmond, Stanford, Tulane, @Florida International. If Duke can manage to win three of these games (I'll leave it to the viewers at home to determine which of the three are even possible) they'll be halfway to bowl eligibility! Though that would still require some massive upsets in at least one or two of their conference games (also left as an exercise to the viewer).
North Carolina (0.5, 1): James Madison, Rutgers, @East Carolina, Louisville. I keep thinking ECU is in the Big East. Remember, folks, when TCU joins next year they could instantly be the best team in the Big East.
North Carolina State (0.5, 2): Liberty, South Alabama, @Cincinnati, Central Michigan. This sure is a schedule all right. This is USA's (U-S-A! U-S-A!) first ever year of college football. Liberty is also a gimme. Though thanks to the two DI-AA games, NCSU will need 7 wins to be bowl eligible (with the 2 DI-AA games a given, that is), which they should end up with. If not, Tom O'Brien should be fired.
Virginia (0.25, 1): William & Mary, @Indiana, Southern Miss, Idaho. UVA is, unfortunately, not traveling to the Kibbie Dome this year. I just like saying that. KIBBIE DOME. The other parts of this schedule are really boring.
Virginia Tech (0, 1): Appalachian State, @East Carolina, Arkansas State, Marshall. Nothing like kicking off your darkhorse national title run with a signature win over... oh, wait. There aren't any signature wins here. There aren't any games to be excited about. And yet, VPI could well beat Appy State and ECU by a combined total of 8 points the way they tend to play down to these kind of teams sometimes. An embarrassing schedule for the only ranked ACC team.

That's a wrap, finally. Up next, what remains of the Big 12. Stay tuned!

Rating the 2011 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

2011-08-17T17:26:00.000-07:00

The rules from 2008 still apply, so let's do this.

As per usual, let's run down the list of "1"s, that is, the teams we feel are the most desirable to play this year: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami (whoops), Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State (double whoops), Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Penn State, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

By conference, that's 3 for the ACC, 4 for the Big 12, 1 for the Big East, 5 for the Big Ten, 1 for the Mountain West, 2 for the Pac-12, and 5 for the SEC.

Taking the entire set of teams for each conference into account, you get the follow averages:

SEC (0.771 average)
Big 12 (0.65)
Big Ten (0.64583)
ACC (0.625)
Pac-12 (0.604)
Big East (0.4375)

The Big 12 seemed to benefit in a big way from gaining another "1" and also losing some dead weight in the form of Colorado, it appears. The Pac-12 didn't get worse so much as everyone else got a little better, well, except for the Big East, which is hurt by having UConn, Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse getting 0.25's this year (the lowest possible rating for a BCS conference team).

We'll spend the next seven posts or so examining each conference individually and wrapping things up, as per usual, hopefully in time for the start of the season. First, as usual, is the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Boy, Some Things Sure Did Happen in Baseball Tonight

2011-08-15T20:34:00.000-07:00

First off, the Dodgers managed to hit and run themselves into the first 4-6-3-2 triple play since 1972 (h/t: Rob Neyer):

Jim Thome blasted two homers for the Twins in their 9-5 win over the Tigers. Oh, the second one was his 600th:

And it would be remiss to not mention the one nearest to my heart, Freddie Freeman's walk-off single to put the Braves over the Giants, 6-5:

2014 World Cup Update: Taking a Look at the Draws

2011-08-09T23:09:00.000-07:00

Last week, the draw for the qualifiers of the 2014 World Cup took place. This was after some regions held initial qualifying rounds among their minnows. Thanks mostly to action in Asia, the potential pool of teams is now down to 175 nations (from 207). For more details on the overall qualification process, see this post. You can also see the results for these rounds on my pages for Asia and North America.

So what to make of the draw? Let's break it down, region-by-region.

AFC

The Asian Football Confederation started with 43 teams and is now, after two rounds of competition, down to 20. None of the teams from the first round advanced to the third, and the only thing that could really be termed an "upset" is Indonesia defeating Turkmenistan.

Broadly speaking, a "group of death" is unlikely to occur even in the third round of this competition. There are 5 groups, and all the highest ranked teams remaining were therefore drawn into separate groups. However, there are potentials for surprises. The 2010 World Cup teams received byes to the third round, however, they were seeded according to their current FIFA Ranking. Japan, Australia, and South Korea retain their top spots as the highest ranked teams in the region, but Bahrain and North Korea each ended up in pots 3 and 4. (Taking their place in the top 5 seeds were Iran and China.)

The top two of each group advance to the fourth round, and all the top seeds will be sure bets to advance. The most interesting draw is probably Group E, with Iran, controversial 2022 World Cup hosts Qatar, and 2010 qualifier Bahrain, along with Indonesia.

In the fourth round, the remaining 10 teams are divided into two pools of 5. This seeding has not occurred yet, but whichever group only gets one of the top three teams will be much easier for the remaining teams to qualify out of. The top two teams from each group qualifies for the World Cup Final, and the 3rd place teams playoff for the right to advance to the Inter-Confederation Playoff. In contrast to 2010, the draw for the Inter-Confederation Playoffs already took place, and so in November 2013 the AFC will face off against the 5th place South American team. Generally, this is not a desirable matchup, but lots can change between now and 2013.

CAF

The Confederation of African Football has not begun qualifying yet. 52 nations will compete, with the teams ranked 29th to 52nd playing the first round. This first round begins in November, and features 12 home-and-away matches.

The winners of the first round advance to the second round, where all 40 remaining teams are divided up in to 10 groups of 4. The winner of each of these groups advances to the third round, where the 10 teams will be paired in 5 home-and-away matches. The winners advance directly to the World Cup.

I personally think this format is, well, not that great. It sounds more exciting I'm sure but I generally like table-based systems that reward the top teams over a longer period of time.

A quick overview of the groups shows the other problems with 10 groups of 4. For reasons I'm not sure I completely understand, Burkina Faso is the 4th ranked team in CAF, higher than Nigeria, Senegal, and Algeria. I have a hard time believing this, resulting in Group E likely being the most volatile group, with the other seeded teams being Gabon, Niger, and the winner of a first round matchup involving Sao Tome and Pricipe versus the Congo. Group A may also be tight, due to South Africa likely being vastly overrated.

UEFA

Europe has 53 teams competing for 53 bids. The qualifying format is simple. There are eight groups of six teams and one group of five teams. The nine winners advance directly to the world cup, and the eight best second place teams playoff for the remaining spots. (You may recall France's controversial win over Ireland in 2009, which took place in one of these playoffs.)

A quick rundown of each group:

Group A: Croatia and Serbia duke it out for the top spot. Belgium and Scotland may make threatening noises. The minnows here are Macedonia and Wales, though at least the Wales-Scotland games may be interesting for a rare competitive match between the Home Nations.
Group B: If Italy has regained any of their former mojo this group is theirs to lose. If not, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria all figure to make things interesting. Armenia and Malta (as in, the tiny island) round out the group.
Group C: Zee Germans are probably locks to win this one, resulting in a knife-fight between Sweden and Ireland for second place. Austria is also a possibility. The Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan, not so much.
Group D: 2010 runner-up, the Netherlands, should be able to take care of business, as should Turkey for second place. Hungary and Romania are the other two teams worth mentioning, but for the sake of completeness let's also point out the other two teams are Estonia and Andorra.
Group E: This may be the tightest group on paper. Norway is the highest ranked team, but both Slovenia and Switzerland played in the 2010 World Cup. Three teams that could easily qualify, but again there are only two slots. The real victims here are probably Albania, Cyprus, and Iceland.
Group F: Portugal and 2018 hosts Russia will finish in the top two, the only question is in what order. Israel is also in this group, probably sailing to a comfortable third over Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, and Luxembourg.
Group G: I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go according to seed. This has to be a dream draw for the Greeks, as they'll face Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithunia, Latvia, and Liectenstein.
Group H: Tell you what: England had better win this group. However, there are some plucky teams vying for second and a possible upset in the forms of Montenegro, the Ukraine, and Poland. Also here is Moldova, and the national team from one of the world's smallest countries, San Marino.
Group I: The current World Champions, Spain, are here. France is also, but luckily for them, the rest of the group is Belarus, Georgia, and Finland.

You may've noticed that one group has one less team than all the others, so matches against the last place teams in the other groups don't count in determining the best group runner-up.

CONCACAF

Thanks to the US being here, this is probably the region I know the most about. 35 teams entered the competition, however, 5 teams have already been eliminated in the first round. The five winners and the other 19 teams ranked 7th through 25th are now divvied up into six groups of 4. The only one of these groups that is likely to not go according to see is Group E. Grenada is higher in the FIFA rankings but Guatemala trounced them 4-0 at the Gold Cup, and I would say from a subjective viewpoint is better overall.

The third round is where CONCACAF's big boys (Mexico and the US) enter, along with fellow 2010 World Cup qualifier Honduras, plus the next three highest ranked teams (Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Cuba). If everything goes according to seed (except for Group E), the three groups will look like this:

Group A: US, Jamaica, Group E winner (likely Guatemala), Group F winner (Haiti)
Group B: Mexico, Costa Rica, Group A winner (El Savador), Group B winner (Trinidad and Tobago)
Group C: Honduras, Cuba, Group C winner (Panama), Group D winner (Canada)

Group C should be the most interesting of these three, unless the US or Mexico really screw up. The top two teams from each group then proceed to the fourth round, the a six team round-robin known as the Hexagonal. The top three teams automatically qualify for the World Cup finals, while the 4th place team plays a home-and-home playoff against the OFC qualifier (which will almost certainly be New Zealand).

CONMEBOL

South America's qualification is as simple as it gets. Nine teams play a round-robin series of home-and-home matches. The top four teams qualify for the World Cup, and the 5th place team will face the playoff winner from the AFC. Brazil, as the hosts, are automatically qualified and will not participate. CONMEBOL did not lose any slots though, so this is a great opportunity some of the weaker teams in this region to get to the promised land. The remaining 9 are: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezual.

OFC

Last, and frankly, least is Oceania.With the departure of Australia after the 2002 World Cup, this region is New Zealand and bunch of tiny Pacific islands. There are only 10 FIFA members in the region, and if New Zealand doesn't win the qualification tournament it would be a major upset. Anyway, the first round features the four lowest ranked teams (Samoa, Tonga, the Cook Islands, and American Somoa) facing off in a single round-robin tournament, with the winner advancing to Group A in the second round along with Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tahiti. Group B consists of Fiji, New Zealand, the Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea. This at the 2012 OFC Nations Cup, so this is also a single round-robin. Finally, in the third round the remaining 4 teams will be play a double-round robin with the winner playing the 4th place team from CONCACAF for a spot in the World Cup.

And there you have it. There'll be more news later this fall as more qualification rounds get under way, but after I update the AFC and CONCACAF pages I'll be focusing my efforts on American football. So until then.

Humanitarian Bowl Brings Back the Roots of Bowl Game Sponsors

2011-08-03T14:59:00.000-07:00

The headline isn't a pun, I swear. Especially since potatoes are tubers, not roots.

"What do potatoes have to do with anything?" you say. Well, I'll tell you. The Humanitarian Bowl is now the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Heck, I don't even like baked potatoes but this logo is delicious:

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that one of the great traditions of bowl games is that most of the old ones were named after agricultural products. The Orange and Sugar date to 1934, and the Cotton to 1936. And of course, the bowl game in Atlanta on December 31st should still rightfully be the Peach Bowl. Also in the recent past were the Tangerine and Citrus Bowls.

And with that kind of agricultural heritage, this annual WAC-MAC tilt is obviously destined for greatness.

Joe Posnanski Hits the Nail on the Head re: College Sports

2011-07-29T12:03:00.000-07:00

This article states something I've thought about for the last year or so far more eloquently than I can. Here are the quotes I agree with the most:

Ask yourself this: What would happen if tomorrow every single player on the Auburn football team quit and re-formed as a professional team called the Birmingham Bandits. Who would go to their games? Anyone? How much would those talented young men get paid?

Ask yourself this: What would happen if all the ACC basketball schools dropped their players and replaced them with Division II talent? Would North Carolina-Duke suddenly play in empty arenas?

[...]

College football is not popular because of the stars. College football is popular because of that first word. Take away the college part, add in money, and you are left with professional minor league football and a developmental basketball league. See how many people go watch that.

The 2014 World Cup is Underway

2011-06-28T01:41:00.000-07:00

Well, sort of.

Two weeks ago qualifying began for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. If you've paid any attention to the site at all the past few years, you may've seen the detail I paid to the qualifying rounds of the 2010 World Cup. In my opinion, that is part of what makes the tournament so great - it's not just a tournament of 32 teams, it's really a tournament that features nearly every FIFA member in the world - 204 out of 207, in fact.

For those unaware, I will first explain the qualification structure.

All FIFA members are organized into six confederations which roughly correspond the continents: CONCACAF (North and Central America), CONMEBOL (South America), UEFA (Europe), AFC (Asia), CAF (Africa), and the OFC (Oceania). For 2014, the bids are allocated thusly:

UEFA: 13 bids (out of 53 entrants)
CAF: 5 bids (out of 53)
AFC: 4.5 bids (out of 43)
CONMEBOL: 4.5 bids (out of 10; also Brazil qualifies automatically as hosts of the 2014 World Cup)
CONCACAF: 3.5 bids (out of 35)
OFC: 0.5 bids (out of 11)

All the whole number bids are direct entrants into the World Cup Finals - so UEFA gets 13 direct qualifiers, CONCACAF gets 3, and the OFC gets none. What are the half bids? The four half-bids will be contested in November 2013 for the final two spots in the World Cup. In a change from years past, this year on July 30th FIFA will draw which confederations will be matched against each other. (In 2010, the CONCACAF qualifier (Costa Rica) faced off against the CONMEBOL qualifier (Uruguay).)

Membership in the confederations is not fixed, and on occasion teams will move around. The two most notable examples are probably Israel (which switched from the AFC to UEFA) and Australia (which moved from the OFC to AFC prior to the 2010 World Cup cycle). The Israel move was for political reasons (the rest of the Middle East is in the AFC), and the Australia move was for competitive reasons (the only other sizable and competitive country in the OFC is New Zealand, the other countries are mostly remote Pacific micronations).

As you might've guessed, UEFA and CONMEBOL are the strongest confederations, and in fact no other confederation has ever produced a winner (or a runner-up, for that matter).

So, given that, how is the draw determined? Well, each confederation determines how to divvy up their bids. CONMEBOL's is the simplest: all nine teams (Brazil is in automatically as hosts) will play a home-and-home double round-robin, and the top four teams get the automatic bid. Others, however, are more complicated. UEFA will draw eight groups of six teams and one group of five, with the nine winners advancing directly to the World Cup and the eight runners-up contesting among themselves for the final four spots. That's still relatively simple, the other confederations have multiple rounds of tournaments.

One such tournament has already begun. In CONCACAF, Belize beat Montserrat 5-2 on June 15th, officially beginning the preliminaries of the 2014 World Cup. Unfortunately, four days later the Belize national football federation was suspended by FIFA, and unless the situation is resolved before July 10th the second leg will not take place (which would result in Montserrat going through automatically). The AFC will begin its qualifying tomorrow, however, with eight matches taking place. In fact, the AFC will be a veritable hub of World Cup activity over the next month, as the first and second rounds take place and the initial 43 teams whittled down to 20.

To help keep track of this action, I've created two sets of graphics that help visualize what is going on. First, for the AFC you can easily the first and second round pairings in every American's favorite tournament abstraction, the bracket. (Of course, this being soccer all pairings are home-and-home, so each represents two games and the winner is decided on aggregate.) I've also made one for CONCACAF. I've used images instead of tables here to help show the individual early match ups and also to facilitate inling these brackets elsewhere. I may do one for the other confederations, though the other confederations make use mostly of drawn-out round-robin tournaments. Also, CAF and the OFC won't begin their processes until next year, and the draws for these events have not yet taken place. (UEFA will start even later, as they are currently contesting their qualifiers for the 2012 Euro Cup.) I will update the brackets I've already made, of course, as action on the pitch warrants.

And speaking of "on the pitch", it's nice to be talking about FIFA and soccer again in that context, isn't it?

On Baseball Realignment

2011-06-11T17:12:00.000-07:00

So realignment is suddenly in the news again, as rumors of the possibility have begun to surface.

The article cited above talks about having two 15-team leagues and eliminating divisions. This would be a radical departure for baseball, which has featured divisional play since 1969, and in addition would require a team switching leagues, which has only happened once in modern baseball, when the Brewers moved to the NL in 1998 to accommodate the expansion Rays and Diamondbacks. (Wikipedia actually says baseball at that the considered doing two 15-team leagues then, but ultimately decided not to due to various issues.)

Currently, baseball is organized into two leagues with three divisions each. This setup originates from expansion in 1969, when both leagues expanded from 12 to 14 teams and instituted two divisions of 7 teams each. Those divisions would remain in place until 1994. Since then, other changes have taken place due to further expansion, giving us our current format or 14 teams in the American League and 16 teams in the National League.

You may be wondering why there's still two separate leagues in the first place, which is another artifact of baseball history. Until 1999, the AL and NL were indeed separate organizations - hence why one league has slightly different rules than the other. That's why a generic term for the top level of professional baseball is the major leagues - the AL and NL together represent the two top level baseball leagues. This is in contrast to the myriad minor leagues and independent leagues. (As a side note, some consider the post-World War II Pacific Coast League the only modern third major league, but any notion of the PCL being on the same level as the as the AL and NL was squashed when the Giants and Dodgers moved west in 1954.)

So are there any problems with the current setup? Well, yes. One of the issues baseball has struggled with since realignment is the idea of the balanced schedule versus the unbalanced schedule. Currently, teams play an unbalanced schedule, which means that they will generally play teams within their division more than teams without. I know the Braves' schedule the best, so I'll use them as an example: they'll play most of the teams within their division 19 times this year, and most of the teams outside their division 6 times this year. (Remember, most teams play each other in 3 game series.)

There are pros and cons to each style. The nice part about the current format is that it places a strong emphasis on winning your division. There are 4 playoff berths in each league, 3 of which go to the division winners. The downside is that the wild card is then very wild, as a team's overall record will depend much more on the teams within their division. The balanced schedule fixes that issue, but then the divisions are just arbitrary splits because everyone plays he same schedule.

One way to settle this is at the heart of the current rumor, that is, just eliminate the divisions altogether and award playoff spots to the top four teams. There are problems with this proposal as well, though. To me, this raises the question of "why bother to have playoffs at all?" After all, if everyone plays each other 11+ times, I'd say you have a pretty good idea who the best teams are in each league at the end of the end of the season. (Of course, that doesn't seem to stop the NBA and NHL, where half of the teams make an entirely too long postseason after a reasonably long regular season.) Also, having divisions gives each team something to play for and "win" - after all, baseball is about the grind moreso than other sports, and home field does not confer nearly as significant an advantage, so what in reality is the difference between the top four seeds in a postseason tournament? Sure, the difference between the first and fourth place teams may be large, but the difference between each seedline is not going to be that great, so what is the incentive to try to build a team that wins the games necessary for first and the game necessary to win fourth? This plan could potentially ruin the regular season.

The other problem is with an odd number of teams in each league, you are also then forced to have an interleague series all year long. I don't really have an inherent problem with this, and this could be easily solved by not having anyone switch leagues. (Though, if you asked me, I would say the Brewers should switch back to the AL.)

Of course, is there any room for realignment and keeping divisions? Sure. Unfortunately, the ideal solution would be for each league to have 18 teams so each division could have 6 teams, but further expansion is almost certainly not on the table. I have some other ideas, that would probably involve massive league switching, but I think if more than one team switches league that also raises the taboo discussion of the designed hitter. Otherwise, we're just talking about trivial fixes, like having the Pirates switch to the NL East so they're in the same division as Phillies.

So what's going to happen? Well, nothing probably. But baseball fans love to talk about this stuff, and it makes for an interesting discussion as we try to predict what baseball will look like in the future.

Bowl Games 2010: So much for "later this week"

2011-06-10T01:44:00.000-07:00

Okay, so I failed pretty miserably at getting this post-mortem up "later this week", unless by that I meant "June 10th". But it's cool, 'cause it's not like there's anything else going on college football right now.

The final tally is in the usual place. This year was fairly mediocre once again, in that I equaled my percentage from last year (50%) by going 18-18. That was mostly due in part to a flawless New Year's Day.

Most bowl game dates and times for 2011-2012 are set now, so I'll try to have that up around September or so. All the games from this year returning, but there are (thankfully) no new ones. If you find a schedule online, don't fret about January 2nd - that happens every time January 1st falls on a Sunday. Of course, this particular year for that to be a worry there has to be a NFL season first. So we'll see.

Bowl Games 2010: The Last One

2011-01-09T11:00:00.000-08:00

First, let me apologize for missing Friday's Division I Football Championship Game. Congrats to Eastern Washington.

As for my other bowl predictions, well, after going 6-0 on New Year's Day, well, I've gotten a lot worse off. I'm doomed to finish around .500 again, it seems.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 10
8:30: Auburn vs. Oregon (BCS Championship Game @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): This was the hardest single game for me to pick. Usually, that title goes to games like the godaddy.com Bowl, which feature teams from conferences that I frankly don't see a lot of. But in this case this was because these teams are really a lot alike.
Both have a scorched Earth offense that tends to leave opponents in its dust. Oregon is #1 in total offense, while Auburn is #7, while Auburn is #4 in scoring offense (the Ducks are #1 in that category as well). Both these teams primarily run the ball, as they're 4th and 5th in the country in rushing (Oregon and Auburn, that is) but merely 49th and 67th in passing.
You already know Auburn's offense. It starts and ends with Cam Newton. Comparing with Oregon's primary two offensive weapons, Newton outpassed Devon Thomas and only had 200 yards less rushing than LaMicheal James. There's a reason why he was a shoe-in for the Heisman, folks.
So what about defense? Ah, that's where I think the difference will be made. Auburn ranks 54th in the country in scoring and total defense, while Oregon is 12th and 25th, respectively. 54th isn't terrible, but it isn't great, either. Auburn's faced only one other top-10 offense this year, and that was Arkansas. The final score of that game was 65-43, a testament to not only both teams' lack of a defense but also Auburn's resiliency. Arkansas led 43-37 at the start of the 4th quarter but Auburn rallied back and without Ryan Mallett Arkansas wasn't able to respond, as Auburn went on to score 4 unanswered touchdowns. Auburn had many moments like this throughout the year, but at a certain point the offense (by which I mostly mean Newton) was able to respond.
Oregon, meanwhile, had only to only really sweat it out a few times this year. They were down early to Stanford, but rallied and defeated the Cardinal 52-31. Then there was the game in Berkeley, where Cal had the Ducks well and truly on the ropes. They won only 15-13, which is the only time they've been held under 30 all season.
So where am I going with all that? Well, for starters, I'm starting to think 38-34 may not be enough points for this game. But that said, I'm picking a narrow Oregon victory here. I think the Ducks's somewhat more well-rounded offense (I say "somewhat" because I recognize it's basically two guys to Auburn's one) can overwhelm Auburn's average defense. Auburn may be able to respond on offense, but I think Oregon can make enough stops to win.
(On a side note, it's remarkable how young these teams are. The heart of Oregon's offense are sophomores. While Newton is junior this his first full year starting, and the guy Auburn fans will point out that I didn't mention at all - Micheal Dyer - is a freshman and almost had a 1000 yards rushing.)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Auburn, as you may recall, won last year's thriller of an Outback Bowl, 38-35 over Northwestern. Oregon got blindsided by last year's version of the Jim Tressel bowl game offense, losing 26-17 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

However it ends up, 2010 has been a fun year in the world of college football, as usual (even if it wasn't all that great for me, personally). Hopefully I can get around to wrapping things up later this week.

Bowl Games 2010: Cleaning Up

2011-01-01T12:00:00.000-08:00

My disaster of a picking season continues as we cover the last six games before the championship.

Fun fact for this set of games: only the Cotton Bowl features two teams that have previously met. Increasing college football's connectivity is always fun, and is probably the most interesting part of bowl season for me.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 3
8:30: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (Orange Bowl @ Miami, FL; ESPN): This is one of the games I struggled the most with, hence the 3 point VPI margin. Sure, Stanford could just up and blow these guys off the field. They even might! But part of VPI's rise from the ashes after the first two games of the season has been their defense and special teams, which in a way is what you would expect. Well, and that Tyrod Taylor guy helps too. He may've progressed the most out of any ACC quarterback this year.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Stanford lost last year's Sun Bowl to Oklahoma, 31-27. That was their first bowl game since 2001. VPI walloped Tennessee in last year's Chick-fil-a Bowl 37-14 and has been in a bowl every year since 1993.

Tuesday, January 4
8:30: Arkansas vs. Ohio State (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Ohio State is also kind of overrated, in my opinion. They missed the other good Big Ten teams outside of Wisconsin, whom they lost pretty thoroughly too. Arkansas can throw the ball around and over OSU's secondary and should net a solid win.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Arkansas beat ECU 20-17 in last year's Liberty Bowl. OSU meanwhile as appeared in a bowl every year since 2000, including the multiple national title games. They won last year's Rose Bowl 26-17 over Oregon.

Thursday, January 6
8:00: Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (GoDaddy.com Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Why is this game being played now? Hell, why are any of these games being played this late? Who knows! Anyway, provided Miami (of Ohio) isn't too broken up about losing their coach I think they should be able to beat a MTSU team that just hasn't rediscovered the spark that made them look like Sun Belt contenders last year.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Miami recovered from last year's 1-11 disaster and is in the first bowl since the 2004 Independence Bowl, which they lost 17-13 to Iowa State. This is MTSU's 3rd bowl ever, and they (by which I mean Dwight Dasher" beat Southern Miss 42-32 in last year's New Orleans Bowl.

Friday, January 7
8:00: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Louisiana State (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): Mostly going with TAMU here because of their crazy new offense and because of the way LSU lost a big game to Arkansas at the end of the year. But it's been a month and a half since then, perhaps they've gotten over it? Or maybe, like their coach, they're too crazy to care?
Previous meetings: It might come as a surprise, but these two have met 48 times, including a series between 1986 and 1995. Their first meeting was in 1906, which TAMU won 22-12. TAMU also won the 1995 game 33-17, but LSU holds an all-time 26-19-3 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: LSU's been to a bowl every year since 2000 and lost last year's Capital One Bowl 19-17 to Penn State. TAMU has an on-again, off-again thing with bowl games but they've got a streak again, since they lost to UGA in last year's Independence Bowl, 44-20.

Saturday, January 8
Noon: Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh (BBVA Compass Bowl @ Bimingham, AL; ESPN): I have no idea why I picked Pitt. I wish I could change it. Anyway, the only plausible reason is that UK is extremely mediocre and maybe Pitt will rally around the 'stache one last time, provided he's coaching this game. (Because, well, their new coach probably isn't. If he's still the new coach then.)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Kentucky are the kings of the low-tier SEC bowls, having been to 4 straight, including 3 Music City Bowls and one Liberty Bowl. They lost last year's Music City Bowl to Clemson 21-13. Pitt won last year's Car Care Bowl 19-17 over UNC.

Sunday, January 9
9:00: Boston College vs. Nevada (Fight Hunger Bowl @ San Francisco, CA; ESPN): Boston College's primary problem ally has been their inability to score points. I don't think that's going to change here. Nevada should cap off a almost very great season with a win here.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: BC has been to a bowl every year since 1999, but since joining the ACC they've had to worry greatly about their destination. They lost last year's Emerald Bowl (i.e., the old name of this game) to USC (yes, that USC) 24-13. Nevada's been to a bowl every year since 2005, which is not a bad streak at all. They got blown out in last year's Hawaii Bowl by SMU, 45-10.

Well, that's it until the national title game. Until then...

Bowl Games 2010: Actually, Now It's 2011 But Let's Just Roll With It

2010-12-31T14:04:00.000-08:00

Well, it's all going downhill now. The predictions are still here. Let's get this over with.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, January 1
Noon: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern (TicketCity Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPNU): This is definitely one of those occasions where I look back at the predictions I made and wonder what, if anything, I was thinking. Okay, well, neither of these teams are exactly world beaters. But I have TTU by 13 here and by golly I guess I'll stick to it.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: TTU beat Michigan State 44-31 in last year's Alamo Bowl. For the first time in their history, Northwestern has made three bowl games in a row. They were last seen in last year's Outback Bowl, a thrilling 38-35 loss to Auburn.

1:00:

Florida vs. Pennsylvania State (Outback Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ABC): I'll spare you the usual platitudes about Urban Meyer and Joe Paterno. I expect this to be a pretty tight game, as both teams have unstable QB situations and neither has done much to impress on offense. I like UF in a close one.
Previous meetings: Just two: the 1962 Gator Bowl and the 1997 Citrus bowl. Florida won both games.
Last bowl game: Florida pounded Cincy 51-24 in last year's Sugar Bowl, and this year is their 20th consecutive bowl (good for second longest in the country). Penn State beat LSU 19-17 in last year's Capital One Bowl.
Alabama vs. Michigan State (Capital One Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): Nick Saban made a name for himself back at MSU. I've maintained all year that this year's Alabama team is not last year's Alabama team, and they finally got around to proving me right. That said, I think they're still good enough to be a slightly overrated Michigan State.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Alabama played in last year's national championship game, which they won over Texas, 37-21. Sparty appeared in last year's Alamo Bowl, where they lost 41-31 to Texas Tech.

1:30: Mississippi State vs. Michigan (Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL: ESPN2): Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs going in the right direction. Not that I think Michigan is going in the wrong direction, and I can't really understand why RichRob is under such intense heat. (General twitter consensus seems to be that he's out.) I don't really think this game will help his cause, as I don't think the Wolverine defense will be able to make the couple of stops they need against MSU's explosive offense.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Miss State was last seen in the 2007 Liberty Bowl, in which they beat Central Florida 10-3. Michigan, which had gone to a bowl every year from 1975 to 2007, is back in the fold. They won that 2007 Capital One Bowl 41-35 over Florida.

5:10: Wisconsin vs. Texas Christian (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): I've had an extremely hard time reading this game. Wisconsin has run over a lot of teams, but those were teams like Indiana and Purdue. TCU has one of, if not the, top defenses in the country and a decent offense to go with it. I'm predicting TCU here, but I don't feel great about it.
Previous meetings: Precisely one, in 1970. They tied 14-14 in Madison.
Last bowl game: TCU lost year's Fiesta Bowl, 17-10, to Boise State. Meanwhile, I'm sure Wisconsin is just glad to be somewhere other than Orlando, the site of their last two bowl games. They won last year's Champs Sports Bowl over Miami 20-14.

8:30: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): Well, most of the other games I've felt really good about have been absolute busts so far this year. But this is easily the biggest on-paper blowout of the bowl season. If UConn wins it may be the upset of the year. It may even be a minor victory if they can even keep it within a couple of scores.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: OU beat Stanford 31-27 in last year's Sun Bowl, helping us erase the memory of the awful 2008 edition. UConn meanwhile makes their third straight bowl, and they beat South Carolina last year in the papajohns.com Bowl, 20-7.

Bowl Games 2010: You Hopefully Can Start Watching Bowl Games Now

2010-12-30T00:00:00.000-08:00

The last couple of days have had some real blowouts, haven't they?

I haven't been doing so well myself, either. After a blazing 5-2 start, I've gone 2-5 in the last seven games to drop me to an even 7-7. Let's hope things improve.

As usual, all times Eastern and predictions wrong.

Thursday, December 30
Noon: Army vs. Southern Methodist (Armed Forces Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): Perhaps this isn't a terribly great place to start, but you go to the couch with the bowl games you've got... or something like that. Army's stats against teams that are worth a darn are pretty abysmal. Now, I'm not sure if SMU is worth a darn, but I'm reluctantly going to take the Ponies here.
Previous meetings: These teams have met exactly twice. The first meeting was in 1928, which Army won 14-13. The second was in 1967, which Army also won, 24-6.
Last bowl game: Army breaks a pretty long bowl drought, which dated back to the 1996 Independence Bowl. They lost to Auburn 32-29. SMU broke their own bowl-less streak last year, beating Nevada 45-10 in the Hawaii Bowl.

3:20: Kansas State vs. Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl @ New York, NY; ESPN): There may not be snow on the ground in the House Steinbrenner Built, but it'll still be cold, with a projected high of 40 tomorrow in the Bronx. (Of course, at least the field fits (barely) in this particular ballpark.) Syracuse's 5th ranked defense is somewhat deceiving considering their competition, which is why I like K-State here. This could be low scoring but I don't think it'll be low scoring enough for the Orange to win. But hey, at least they probably won't give up 51 like last time (see below).
Previous meetings: These teams have met twice previously, both in bowl games. The first meeting was the 1997 Fiesta Bowl, which K-State won 35-18. The second was the 2001 Insight Bowl, which KSU lost 26-3.
Last bowl game: Kansas State's last bowl the 2006 Texas Bowl, where the lost 37-10 to Rutgers. Meanwhile, Syracuse provides one of my favorite cautionary tales, most recently demonstrated by Tennessee in a classic case of "you don't know what you've got 'till it's gone". Syracuse got pounded by Georgia Tech 51-14 in the 2004 Champs Sports bowl, and I'll never forget the in-booth interview with Syracuse's then new athletic director, who basically fired long time coach Paul Pasqualoni on air. What followed was the Greg "Gerg" Robinson era, which was probably most notable for a Syracuse blogger's longing for the now-defunct International Bowl than anything else. (Indeed, in the first two years of the post-Gerg era the 'Cuse has already won more games than they did during his four year tenure.)

6:40: Tennessee vs. North Carolina (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ESPN): This game happened essentially because of a game that won't happen next year: Tennessee had a home-and-home with UNC starting next year but backed out to soften the schedule. (They don't really even deny it, but it's late so you can Google that yourself.) This was something of a lost season for UNC, but they pulled through and got to a bowl. Tennessee finished strong, but you should finish strong when your last four games are Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Kentucky. I think the Tarheels are an overall better team and I like them here.
Previous meetings: These teams have played each other 28 times, but they haven't met since 1961. The first meeting was a 1908 contest the Vols won 12-0, while the last was won by the Tarheels 22-11. Tennessee holds a 20-7-1 overall record in the series.
Last bowl game: Tennessee inexplicably appeared in last year's Chick-fil-a Bowl, where they were pounded 37-14 by Virginia Tech. UNC appeared in both of the last two Car Care Bowls, and even appeared in the 2004 Continental Tire Bowl (without appearing in a bowl in between), making this their first trip to a different bowl since the 2001 Peach Bowl. Carolina lost last year's Car Care Bowl 19-17 to Pittsburgh.

10:00: Washington vs. Nebraska (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): Husky Stadium is, generally, considered one of the loudest venues in major college football. Which doesn't seem to help the eponymous home team much, especially back in September when Nebraska pounded them in Seattle. In certain situations, bowls don't mind re-matches of oft-met or regular season foes. This isn't one of them. I'm not big on "moral victories" but it will be one for Washington if they don't get blown out here. I picked Nebraska to only win by 10 because I'm not sure of Taylor Martinez's ankle, or after this Big 12 Championship Game, his brain, but we'll see.
Previous meetings: September 18th of this year was the most recent meeting between these two, where U-Dub got pounded 56-21. They'd met 7 times before this year, in 1925, 1926, 1967, 1991, 1992, 1997, and 1998. Including this year, Nebraska holds a 4-3-1 series lead.
Last bowl game: Nebraska won last year's Holiday Bowl, beating Arizona 33-0. Meanwhile, Washington is making their first postseason appearance since the 2002 Sun Bowl, which they lost to Purdue 34-24.

Friday, December 31
Noon: Clemson vs. South Florida (Car Care Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): I have Clemson by the thinnest of margins here. Which Clemson team you get on a given day is always something of a crapshoot. I expect this game to be pretty low scoring, but provided the Tigers show up they should win.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Clemson won last year's Music City Bowl 21-13 over Kentucky, while USF won the last-ever International Bowl over Northern Illinois, 27-3.

2:00: Miami vs. Notre Dame (Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX; CBS): It's Catholics vs. Convicts again! Well, kind of, since the one thing that could be said about Randy Shannon was that he did generally keep his guys out of trouble. (I'll spare you a "speaking of trouble" segue that has to due with the players not being allowed to cross the border into Jaurez.) Motivation will be a factor here, I suspect, but the problem is I'm not sure whom it'll be in favor of. I'm going with "da 'U'" for now.
Previous meetings: These two former independent powers first met in 1955, which Miami lost 14-0. The real fun began in 1971, when they played each other every year until 1990, when Miami lost 29-20 in South Bend. ND leads the overall series 15-7-1.
Last bowl game: Miami lost last year's Champs Sports Bowl to Wisconsin 20-14. Notre Dame didn't go to a game last year even though they could have, so their last appearance was the 2008 Hawaii Bowl, which blew out the home team 49-21.

3:30: Central Florida vs. Georgia (Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, TN; ESPN): In addition to the uniforms, George O'Leary has done his best to recreate late-90's Georgia Tech down at Central Florida. (Hopefully the administration is actually keeping the kids eligible this time.) If he could also recreate great victories over UGA that would also be just peachy. I've cheekily picked the Knights, who've actually been pretty decent this year. Well, at least in C-USA. I'm not terribly comfortable with this, of course, but hey, UGA's lost 6 games this year and I'm pretty sure they could out-athlete any of those teams, A.J. Green or no, except maybe Auburn.
Previous meetings: Once, in what was presumably a guarantee game in 1999. Georgia won 24-23.
Last bowl game: UGA beat Texas A&M in last year's Independence Bowl, 44-20. UCF lost last year's St. Petersburg Bowl 45-24.

7:30: Florida State vs. South Carolina (Chick-fil-a Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): It's the ACC-SEC runner-up show-down! Nonetheless, this should be a pretty decent matchup of two teams that can score and old visor wearin' ballcoach against his former arch-rival. Also, South Carolina has Marcus Lattimore, who is pretty much the human personification of a freight train. As a freshman, hopefully he's been able to use the break to recharge a bit. Also, while they may not have been able to stop Cam Newton (hardly something unique to them) South Carolina's defense has held up well against other opponents. Suffice it to say, I like the Gamecocks here.
Previous meetings: These two have played 18 times, all between 1966 and 1991. FSU won the 1991 contest 38-1 and holds a 15-3 series lead. The Gamecocks haven't beaten FSU since 1984.
Last bowl game: FSU won last year's Gator Bowl 33-21 over WVU, and also owns, by far, the longest consecutive bowl streak in the country at 29 years in a row. South Carolina, meanwhile, lost last year's papajohns.com Bowl to UConn 20-7.

Bowl Games 2010: Winding Toward the New Year

2010-12-26T00:01:00.000-08:00

I'm off to a much better start this year as compared to last, but will it hold up over the next week (when the vast majority of games are)? Stay tuned and see!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Sunday, December 26
8:30: Florida International vs. Toledo (Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): It's tough to really do predictions for these sorts of games, as they're not exactly teams I spend every week of the season watching. When it comes to teams like this, one has to sort of ignore how badly they get beat up by the teams they collect checks from and look at their conferences, which is the reason why I like Toledo here.
Previous meetings: Somewhat surprisingly, these teams have met twice, with FIU winning at Toledo in 2008 but losing at home last year, 41-31.
Last bowl game: Given their short history (DI-A since 2004) it's perhaps not a surprise this is FIU's first bowl game. Toledo had a pretty good thing going back in the late-90's and early 2000's but they haven't been a bowl since the 2005 GMAC Bowl, wherein they beat UTEP 45-13. This is also their 4th appearance in what used to be the Motor City Bowl, which they last made the trip to in 2004.

Monday, December 27
5:00: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN2): As all three of my readers have probably noticed, I generally avoid picking Tech games. This is mostly because of two reasons. First, well, it's just bad form to root against your own team, even if logically they are underdogs. Second, I don't generally like picking them to win because I think it'll jinx them even though I know better. So, when it comes to situations like this, I decide the latter is the lesser of the two evils and predict a narrow win for the good guys. We'll see if it works.
Most of the talk surrounding this game has been related to the two option offenses playing each other in a bowl game that could actually run under three hours. This is possible, for sure. But these are also two different option offenses. Georgia Tech runs what Paul Johnson calls the "spread option", which is an option offense run from the "flexbone" formation that has more in common with the run-n-shoot principle of "getting the ball to players in space" than with the 1970's Oklahoma wishbone (or the 1950's GT wishbone, for that matter). Air Force will also run some flexbone, but they have a more "pure" historical option family tree and also mix in some option plays from other formations, from the classic wishbone and I-formations to the shotgun.
Georgia Tech will be missing at least 5 players. The first and foremost is senior QB Josh Nesbitt, who is still out from the broken arm he suffered in the Virginia Tech game. Tech will also be missing two starters and two backups due to academic issues. Mario Edwards is the missing starting safety, which is bad due to the general lack of talent and depth on defense. Stephen Hill has not had a great year, but he is a tall physical presence at WR that will be missed.
Air Force has given up around 22 points per game but allows close to 5 yards per carry. While they shut down the Navy offense earlier this year (which is still very similar to Tech's) I'm not sure how much of that was AF or how much was bad play on the part of the Midshipmen. Tech's defense isn't very good, but you already knew that.
So what do I expect here? Well, anything really. I'm just going to pull for the Jackets and hope for the best.
Previous meetings: Georgia Tech has played Air Force 3 times overall, all from 1977-1979. Air Force was pretty bad back then and GT made quick work of them, to the tune of a 3-0 record by which GT outscored them 93-24. The 1978 game in Colorado Springs featured GT running back Eddie Lee Ivory setting what was then the NCAA single-game rushing record.
Last bowl game: Georgia Tech is making its 14th consecutive bowl appearance, a streak which dates back to the 1997 Carquest Bowl. Only 4 other schools have as long or longer streaks (Georgia, VPI, Florida, and FSU). GT played in last year's Orange Bowl and lost 24-14 to Iowa. Meanwhile, AF is in its 4th consecutive bowl game, the previous three of which were the Armed Forces Bowl. Last year they pounded Houston 47-20.

Tuesday, December 28
6:30: West Virginia vs. North Carolina State (Champs Sports Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): Despite his general lack of coaching prowess, I'm not sure anyone really deserves the treatment Bill Stewart has gotten lately from the WVU athletic department. That's part of the reason why I've picked them to win. The other is that West Virginia has quietly had an awesome defensive year. They rank 3rd in the country in total defense and have allowed an average of less than 13 points per game. I think NCSU will manage to score more than that, but one side has a great defense and is playing for their embattled coach, while the other had a shot at getting to the ACC title game but blew it in an inexplicable loss to Maryland.
Previous meetings: These schools have met a total of 9 times in what appear to be one off home-and-homes and a couple of Peach Bowls. The first meeting was in 1914, which NC State won 26-13. They would meet again in 1917 and then in three straight years from 1953-1955. Then there were the 1972 and 1975 Peach Bowls, after which they'd get together for a home-and-home in 1978 and 1979, the last of which WVU won 38-14. They haven't met since. Overall, WVU holds a slim 5-4 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: West Virginia has a decent little streak going, starting with the 2002 Continental Tire Bowl, which they lost to UVA 48-22, and lost to FSU last year in the Gator Bowl, 33-21. NCSU last went bowling in 2008, when they lost 29-23 to Rutgers in the papajohns.com Bowl.

10:00: Missouri vs. Iowa (Insight Bowl @ Temple, AZ; ESPN): Iowa's had a boatload of issues so far this offseason, while Mizzou hasn't. Missouri also still boasts a pretty good offense and had decent, if not great year, while Iowa's was mostly disappointing. Going with the Tigers here.
Previous meetings: These two met 7 times from 1902 to 1910 and haven't played each other since. In what was surely an exciting game, Mizzou won the 1910 game 5-0 and holds a 4-3 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: This will be Mizzou's 4th straight bowl game. They lost 35-13 to Navy in last year's Texas Bowl. This would be Iowa 10th straight game, but they didn't go to one in 2007. They beat Georgia Tech 24-14 in last year's Orange Bowl.

Wednesday, December 29
2:30: Maryland vs. East Carolina (Military Bowl @ Washington, DC; ESPN): I've got Maryland here, mostly due to the non-strength that is ECU's defense. With the 108th ranked defense nationally, even the Terps should be able to put up some points here.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Maryland was last seen in the 2008 Humanitarian Bowl, where they beat Nevada 42-35. This is ECU's 5th straight bowl game, and last year they lost 20-17 to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.

6:00: Baylor vs. Illinois (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): I normally say about these sorts of games "which Illinois team will show up here?" but I think that's an ultimately futile effort. That said, Illinois's wins include both directional Illinoises, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State. Baylor faded down the stretch, but at least they didn't lose to Minnesota. Taking the Bears here.
Previous meetings: These teams have met exactly once, in a 34-19 Baylor win at Illinois in 1976.
Last bowl game: Baylor, as you might've heard, has not been very good for most of the of the past two decades. Their last bowl appearance was actually with the SWC, when they lost 10-3 to Washington State in 1994 Alamo Bowl. This is Illinois's first bowl since the Zooker's magical run to the 2007 Rose Bowl, where they (unsurprisingly) got pounded by USC 49-17.

9:15: Arizona vs. Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): Arizona actually has a decent offense and defense, but OSU has a serviceable defense and the nation's leading offense. Most notably, the the Wildcat defense got torched by fellow offensive juggernauts Stanford and Oregon, so there's not reason Oklahoma State shouldn't be able to do the same.
Previous meetings: These two have met 6 times and are 3-3 all-time. All 6 meetings were between 1931 and 1942, the last of which Arizona won 20-6.
Last bowl game: This is Arizona's third straight bowl game. They got blown out 33-0 in last year's Holiday Bowl. This is OSU's 5th straight game (their only miss of the past decade was in 2005). They lost 21-7 to Ole Miss in last year's Cotton Bowl.

On TV This Weekend: Playoffs?!?

2010-12-17T19:57:00.000-08:00

I meant to include this in my bowl post but I completely forgot! Probably because I won't be able to watch these games, but alas I will do my duty and bring them to you here.

Right now, of course, there's Eastern Washington and defending champs Villanvoa on ESPN2 in a semifinal match.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:00: Delta State vs. Minnesota-Duluth (Division II Championship @ Florence, AL; ESPN2): All the marbls here once again in Florence. Both these teams are prior champions (Delta St. in 2000, Duluth in 2008) so they've got the credentials.

Noon: Georgia Southern @ Delaware (ESPNU): This is the other DI-AA semifinal. Supposedly due to the confluence of Christmas and New Year's Day on consecutive Saturdays this year the title game won't be held until January 7th. Whatever you say, NCAA. Anyway, this will be Southern's 4th game to Delaware's 3rd, a consequence of the 20 team bracket this year (in which Delaware was also the third seed).

3:30: Wisconsin-Whitewater vs. Mount Union (Division III Championship @ Salem, VA; ESPNU): Business as usual in the Division III final. These two have met every year since 2005, and both have been dominant in their runs to the title game once again.

I also wanted to comment on UMass saying they're trying to join the MAC for 2013. That's a long ways off, but the MAC goes to 14 teams that could resolve some of their infamous scheduling issues with 13 teams. To create balanced divisions, I suspect one of the Ohio teams would be asked to move to the west. But, still, the NCAA has to lift its moratorium for schools trying to make the jump to I-A (which is also an issue for the schools the WAC wants to invite).

Bowl Games 2010: Opening Slate

2010-12-17T12:01:00.000-08:00

It's that time of the year again, folks! I had an abysmal year last year (50% overall) so I'm hoping to improve on that this year. For now, we'll start with this year's pre-Christmas bowls.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 18
2:00: Texas-El Paso vs. Brigham Young (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): UTEP had a fairly typical year for UTEP, beating up on patsies and getting an inexplicable win over a C-USA favorite (in this case, their win over SMU). BYU's year appeared to be going off the rails until they rediscovered their offense. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is also when they started playing the bottom dwellers of the Mountain West, though they did put up a fight in their 1-point loss to bitter rivals Utah. That said, I'm buying stock in the BYU offensive renaissance and hoping to see it pay off against UTEP.
Previous meetings: These former WAC foes met every year from 1966 to 1998 (skipping 1995), and BYU holds a commanding 28-7-1 lead, including a 31-14 win in their last meeting in 1998.
Last bowl game: This is BYU's 6th straight bowl game, a streak starting in 2005 with a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. Every trip thereafter also was to the Las Vegas Bowl, so this marks the first time since 2001 they've gone somewhere else. Last year, they trounced Oregon State 44-20. Meanwhile, this is UTEP's first trip to a bowl since the 2005 GMAC Bowl, which they lost to Toledo 44-13.

5:30: Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois (Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): Northern Illinois was having the season this year. The kind of year where everything was coming together, including an undefeated run through the MAC and a rushing offense that just ran every which way against everyone. Well, except Miami (of Ohio) in the MAC title game, which they lost. Then they lost their coach to a team they beat this year. I think Fresno is probably more talented, but let's face it, no matter what they say this is a major let down.
Previous meetings: Somewhat surprisingly, these schools have met 4 times, though not since 1991. The series is split at 2-2.
Last bowl game: Fresno sports a 3 game bowl streak coming into this one, starting with a (sigh) 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in the 2007 Humanitarian, and then two trips to the New Mexico Bowl, where they lost last year to Wyoming 35-28. NIU has a two year bowl streak, including last year's 27-3 loss in the last ever International Bowl.

9:00: Ohio vs. Troy (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Troy didn't win the Sun Belt this year, but they still get to go New Orleans. There's worse things in the world. Ohio heads down from the MAC thanks to some last minute bowl swapping shenanigans. Troy had a relatively disappointing year (mostly because they're favorites for the Sun Belt crown every year these days). Ohio lost their shot at the MAC East due to a shocking upset of them by Kent State, allowing Miami to sneak in and then upset NIU. Crazy. Anyway, Troy doesn't play much defense seemingly but they do score a whole ton of points and I don't think the Bobcats will be able to keep up. Both teams may score more than 30 though.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Ohio lost last year's Little Ceasar's Bowl 21-17 to ex-MAC team Marshall and Troy lost last year's GMAC bowl 44-41, but extends their bowl streak to three. In fact, including this year is Troy's 5th bowl game. Not bad for a program that started playing major college football in 2001.

Tuesday, December 21
8:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville (St. Petersburg Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL): Even if that league is the Big East, giving up less than 20 points per game is a pretty good defense. And that's exactly what Louisville's done. Southern Miss can score, but they've struggled a tad against better opponents. I expect a 17-14 like contest here.
Previous meetings: These two played every year from 1978 to 2002 first as independents, and then as members of the old pre-Big East poached Conference USA. Southern Miss leads the all time series 15-8-1. They last met, though, in 2009 where Louisville won 25-23.
Last bowl game :Louisville was last seen beating Wake Forest 24-13 in the 2006 Orange Bowl, where after they disappeared into the wilderness. Southern Miss is would be there in the consecutive bowl game lists, having been every year since 1997 except for 2001 (though since they were 6-5, they would've gone these days, but that's another discussion). Anyway, the last two years they were in the New Orleans Bowl, where they lost to Dwight Dasher and MTSU last year 42-32.

Wednesday, December 22
8:00: Boise State vs. Utah (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV): Boise recovered from their disastrous loss to Nevada by getting back to what they did several other times this year: pound their WAC opposition into the dust. Utah, meanwhile, has only two losses but I feel they're very telling: a blowout losses to TCU and Notre Dame. Not encouraging. I like Boise in a rout here (and with the current line I even have Boise covering the 18).
Previous meetings: Their last meeting was in a 2006 game at Utah, which Boise won 36-3. The two also met in 1998 and 1999, with Boise winning both those encounters as well.
Last bowl game: Utah beat Cal in last year's Poinsettia Bowl, and has been to a bowl every year since 2003. Boise beat TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl and sports its own streak dating back to 2002. (It'd be two games longer if they had to gone to a bowl in 2001, which they didn't despite being 8-4.)

Thursday, December 23
8:00: Navy vs. San Diego State (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): San Diego State is pretty decent this year, which is why you keep hearing Brady Hoke come up in coaching rumors. I ordinarily like Navy teams in bowl games, but I don't think SDSU will be taking anything for granted against the home crowd, and should have a size advantage on the lines and the passing game that can expose Navy's secondary. I don't think SDSU will win going away, but I think they will win.
Previous meetings: They've met twice, in 1994 and 1997. SDSU won both games, the latter 45-31 and the former 56-14. Remember, Navy wasn't very good back then.
Last bowl game: Navy defeated Missouri 35-13 in last year's Texas Bowl, and has gone to a bowl every year since 2003. Meanwhile, this is SDSU's first appearance since the 1998 Las Vegas Bowl, which they lost to UNC 20-13.

Friday, December 24
8:00: Hawaii vs. Tusla (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Both these teams can score. Hawaii, of course, likes to throw the ball and the Tulsa defense has been awfully obliging this year, yielding 305.7 yards/game (good for 119th nationally). Tulsa may keep it close early put Hawaii should be able to pull away.
Previous meetings: Hawaii is 5-2 all-time against Tulsa, with all but their first appearance in 1992 coming from Tulsa's stint in the WAC. Their last meeting was in 2004, a 44-16 Hawaii win.
Last bowl game: Hawaii was last seen in a 49-21 loss to Notre Dame in the 2008 Hawaii Bowl. Their sub-.500 record in 2009 snapped a modest 3-game streak. Tulsa also lost their 4-game streak last year, with their last bowl appearance in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, in which they handily beat Ball State 45-13.

The bowl predictions page should be updated with all predictions soon!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

2010-12-10T12:00:00.000-08:00

With one DI-A game this weekend various sorts of playoffs, I figured I would go ahead and write up a post for this weekend. I'm just going to do a cursory overview of most of these games, because above all I really just want you to watch them. People say this weekend is dead-football wise and I couldn't agree less. I think one of my favorite games last year was the Appalachian State-Montana playoff game, and that's what's great here: a real, honest-to-goodness playoff.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
8:00: New Hampshire @ Delaware (ESPN2): We'll start with a pair of DI-AA quarterfinals (the other two won't be televised). This particular match features a pair of CAA rivals that did not play this past season. The quick overview here is that UNH has 3 DI-AA losses on the year, which Delware only has two, and those two were narrow losses to fellow conference foes (and tournament teams) Villanova and conference champ William & Mary.

Saturday
Noon: Villanova @ Appalachian State (ESPN): Speaking of the Wildcats, here's probably the DI-AA team most people have heard of: Appy State. I was hoping there'd be some snow for this game, but maybe better luck next round as the high in Boone, NC will projected to be a balmy 43 degrees Saturday. Anyway, while the Mountaineers are the #1 seed in the tournament both teams are coming off blowouts of their competition from the previous round. I would expected a pretty decent game here.

2:00:

Alabama State vs. Texas Southern (SWAC Championship @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN Classic): Again, I'm not sure why the SWAC plays a championship game. Okay, I actually do know why (it's tradition) but in the process they forfeit their bid to the playoffs, making them and the Ivy League the only conferences to do so.
Delta State @ Shepard (CBSCS): Yes, that's right, it'd Division II semifinal action, only on CBS College Sports! Catch the fever!

2:30: Navy vs. Army (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): Army has to come into this year's edition more optimistic than ever. This is the first year since 1996 they've qualified for a bowl, and it's the first time in forever that Navy isn't playing to clinch the Commander-in-Chief's trophy (as Air Force already has). Oh, another fun fact: this is also the first time ever all three academies have qualified for a bowl in the same year. (Note that the Air Force Academy has only existed, in football terms, since 1957.) At any rate, I still have to favor Navy here, statistically and subjectively they still appear to be the better team.

6:00: Minnesota-Duluth @ Northwest Missouri State (CBSCS): More DII action! Hey, it's still college football, and in the end, that's all that really matters, right?

Also, recommended viewing Saturday night is ESPN's last "30 for 30" feature, Pony Excess, detailing the pay-for-play scandal that lasted the better part of the 80's at SMU. I haven't seen it, of course, but I suspect that there will be even more people wondering how Craig James is still employed at ESPN afterward.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Final

2010-12-05T03:57:00.001-08:00

Hopefully uploading this early enough that it’ll get posted to Facebook before tomorrow evening. (Oh snap!) Anyway, here’s my final take on trying to figure out who is going where. (Note that the main page will be updated as announcements are made throughout the day.)

The BCS

Nothing changes here except the conference winners are now known. I’m actually pretty excited about Wisconsin-TCU and VPI-Stanford, not to mention the title game. I’m trying to figure out how UConn isn’t going to get obliterated by Oklahoma, but them’s the breaks for the Fiesta, but don’t feel to sorry for them as they’ll get first crack at this thing next year. (And, honestly, you shouldn’t really feel sorry for big bowl games anyway. Being a BCS bowl game commissioner is probably the cushiest job on the planet.)

For the below I’m going to start with conferences where things are well-known and go from there. At this point, the ACC and SEC probably have the most uncertainty, so I’ll do them last.

Big East

With UConn’s 19-16 win over South Florida, all Big East teams should get into Big East affiliated bowls, provided the Champs Sports likes its chances with West Virginia over Notre Dame. Since the Champs only gets to take Notre Dame once every four years under their new deal with the Big East, they may elect to take a well-traveling Mountaineer posse and try their luck with ND next year. From there, it’s pretty much just letting things fall where they may. Pitt will probably head to the Car Care Bowl, and Syracuse has already accepted an invite to the Pinstripe Bowl. The only other question is how the Compass and St. Petersburg Bowls shake out. Right now I have the St. Pete wanting to get USF (again), and so sticking the Compass with Louisville. It could easily work out the other way, though.

Big 12

Oklahoma won the whole thing, and the Cotton has already grabbed Texas A&M. So we first go to the Alamo, which is basically picking between Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Since the Alamo just started a new deal with the Pac-10 and Big 12, I have to think they’ll grab their last chance to take the Cornhuskers, which relegates Oklahoma State to the Insight. That said, those two could easily switch places. Either way, though, I think Missouri lands in the Holiday Bowl. With Kansas State already in with the Pinstripe Bowl, this leaves two slots (the Texas Bowl and TicketCity Bowl) for two teams, Baylor and Texas Tech. I think they’ll go in that order.

Pac-10

The Pac-10 managed to avoid its nightmare scenario Saturday, with Oregon beating Oregon State and Washington managing to hang on for dear life in the Apple Cup. Oregon and Stanford will be in the BCS barring any shenanigans that see Stanford getting passed in the polls, so that leaves Arizona and Washington for two bowl spots, the Alamo and Holiday. I don’t really know why, but I’m putting Arizona in the Alamo and Washington in the Holiday. I don’t think Arizona fans will be particularly excited with their overtime loss to Arizona State, while after the thrill of victory Washington fans may realize beating Wazzou by a touchdown isn’t really that much of an accomplishment. However, among bowl types I think Arizona probably has the better reputation and the Alamo gets first pick.

Mid-Majors and Independents

Several mid-major conference games are basically set. The New Mexico Bowl will pit UTEP and BYU, Utah will (probably) face Boise State in Las Vegas, Navy will face San Diego State in the Poinsettia, Hawaii will face Tulsa, and Army will play Southern Methodist at the Armed Forces Bowl in SMU’s home stadium. The other WAC bids are basically set as well, with Nevada going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, leaving Fresno to head up to Boise.

The Mountain West already announced its bids earlier this week. The only one I didn’t mention above is Air Force in the Independence.

After its win in the C-USA title game, Central Florida is headed to the Liberty Bowl. From there, the other C-USA bids fell into place, with Tulsa heading to Hawaii, ECU heading up to the Military Bowl, and Southern Mississippi headed to the St. Petersburg. Astute readers will note that the C-USA slot in the New Orleans Bowl is not filled- this is due to SMU going to the Armed Forces Bowl, filling a slot left open by the lack of a Mountain West team.

With MTSU beating FIU yesterday, the Sun Belt has three bowl eligible teams: those two and Troy. Thanks to the Big Ten being a team short, this gives the Sun Belt three slots to fill: New Orelans, godaddy.com, and Little Ceasars. I’m currently putting Troy in the godaddy.com as it’s in nearby Mobile, AL. From there, I’m sending MTSU to the Little Ceasars since they went to New Orleans last year, leaving FIU to go to the Big Easy.

What about Notre Dame? Well, if the Champs takes West Virginia, most sources seem to think the Sun Bowl will take the Irish. I agree with this train of thought, especially if it sets up the Notre Dame-Miami matchup that the Sun Bowl folks really coveted (until Miami lost last weekend and fired their coach, anyway).

This leads us to the MAC. The MAC has six qualified teams: conference champ Miami, runner-up Northern Illinois, and then Ohio, Temple, Toledo, and Western Michigan. The MAC has three guaranteed bids (Little Ceasars, godaddy.com, and Humanitarian) and due to shortages in other conferences there’s one overall at-large bid (New Orleans) after I take care of the major conference teams plus any backup tie-ins. Right now, I’m putting Toledo in the Little Ceasars due to a rumored need to sell tickets and Toledo is the closest team to Detroit. I’m then putting the champ in Mobile, followed by NIU to the Humanitarian. This leaves three teams for the one New Orleans slot, and of those three I’m picking Ohio. This means the only two eligible teams not in bowls this year, according to me, will be Temple and Western Michigan.

Okay, those were the easy ones. Let’s talk about the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC, in that order.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is extremely likely to get two teams into the BCS. Of the three co-champions, Wisconsin will go to the Rose barring any poll shenanigans tomorrow. The Sugar will get the first two picks from the at-large pool regardless of how Auburn and Oregon finish as the Rose is expected to take TCU. This puts Ohio State into the Sugar for me, leaving Michigan State to lament its fate in the Capital One Bowl.

Following the top three, we have the remaining five eligible teams. Three of them were 4-4 in conference (Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State) while the other two were 3-5 (Michigan and Northwestern). A lot of signs have flipped recently, pointing Penn State towards the Outback bowl, where I originally had Iowa slotted. This gets us to the Big Ten #4/5 slot, occupied by the Insight and Gator Bowls. The Gator wanted to make a splash with Florida-Penn State in its first year of its Big Ten-SEC matchup, but it looks like the Outback will steal that. Fair or not, I think they’ll reach for the Michigan “name”, sending Iowa to the desert. The Texas Bowl is then left to contemplate Illinois and Northwestern, with the TicketCity picking after. Despite losing at Fresno Friday night, I’m still putting Illinois in Houston, leaving Northwestern for the TicketCity.

SEC

It starts easy. Auburn in the title game, Arkansas to the Sugar, Alabama in the Capital One, and LSU in the Cotton. Things start to get screwy in the Outback. I originally had South Carolina slotted there, but the Internet has exploded with rumors that the Outback execs want to matchup Florida with Penn State. I’ve bowed to this pressure, leaving the Chick-fil-a with a tough choice. I’m not aware of any SEC rules that say the championship game loser must go to a certain level of bowl, but the conventional wisdom says South Carolina will go there. Personally, I don’t like it because it’s in the same building where they just got demolished by Auburn, and I’ve had Mississippi State pegged to this game for awhile because they had a good year and a bright future with a pretty energized fanbase (that also hasn’t been since 1999). I’m overriding my gut on this one and putting South Carolina here, though.

The Chick-fil-a’s pick also affects the Gator and Music City Bowls. If the Chick-fil-a takes South Carolina, then the Gator will take Tennessee and the Music City will take Mississippi State. If the Chick-fil-a takes Mississippi State, then the Gator would probably take South Carolina, putting the Vols in the Music City. Regardless of any of the above, I have Georgia in the Liberty and Kentucky in the BBVA Compass.

ACC

My teams’s conference is also the most complicated. I can’t find anything concrete on which way any of the ACC bowls are leaning other than the Chick-fil-a, which said it’d take the title game loser, so that’s where Florida State is going. As I lamented Friday, I have no idea what is happening with anyone else. At this point I’m just sticking to my guns. I’m putting NC State in the Champs Sports and thinking the Sun will stick with its original idea, Miami, since they will probably get Notre Dame. The Car Care is finally tired of UNC it seems, so I’m slotting Clemson into there. This leads us to the Music City. This is sort of the most desired bowl for Georgia Tech fans at the current moment, so most of the message board rumors I’ve seen focus on this. I still don’t really think it’s going to happen, so I’m putting North Carolina there, putting us in the Independence. The Military will be overjoyed that Maryland is still available through all that (and really, the Terps are the wild card here, but they had abysmal attendance (around 30,000 a game) at home this year so that’s not helping them), once again exiling Boston College out to San Francisco. Note that if the Champs or Sun gets frisky and takes the Terps or Canes before I project that really jumbles things up.

That’s all I have for now. Note at the top I linked to the final set of predictions, any changes and awarding of asterisks will happen on the main page that will be updated throughout the day as I hear more confirmations. And, of course, the ESPN bowl coverage kicks off at 8:15 Eastern tomorrow night, starting with the BCS bowls for 45 minutes and then the overall bowl selection show. Many major conferences will embargo their bowl announcements until then, so we may not hear anything other than the MAC and Sun Belt announcements until then.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

2010-12-04T01:00:00.000-08:00

As promised, this weekend's guide. I'll do another normal one for next weekend (for Army-Navy and the NCAA playoff games), and then we'll get into our bowl coverage.

As usual, all times Eastern and predictions wrong.

Noon:

Rutgers @ West Virginia (ABC): Well, here's one part of your Big East conference champion scenario. West Virginia should win, though, which eliminates Pitt from contention.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (ESPN): As much as I make fun of the Big East (again, this is generally in the same way we made fun of Mississippi back in Alabama), they did provide us the thrilling Pitt-Cincy game last year for the conference crown. This year's edition, though, will likely prove less exciting as Cincy was 4-7 on the year an a meager 2-4 in Big East play. That said, as mentioned above WVU victory eliminates Pitt from the Big East running, so that may dampen the Panthers' spirits a bit. They should still win, though.
Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (Conference USA Championship; ESPN2): SMU has been inconsistent, but they did come out on top of the C-USA's west division somehow. UCF had no such issues, though, with only a minor bump in the road against USM while they for the most part pounded their C-USA comrades. Of course, this logic didn't do me any good for the MAC title game, but UCF does have home field advantage and should be able to take advantage of it.

2:00: Troy @ Florida Atlantic (ESPNU): Troy will actually not win the Sun Belt this year, due to their loss to eventual champion FIU. FAU has been less fortunate this year, though, as Schnelly's lost 7 games and only boasts a now-inexplicable win over FIU. At any rate, I'm just going to keep trucking with Troy.

3:30: Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC): This game could potentially blow everything up, though really it probably won't. The Ducks may struggle in the first half due to the crowd, but should be able to get the offense in gear in the second half and be able to put the Beavers away.

4:00: South Carolina vs. Auburn (SEC Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): This game could really blow everything up. I tend to agree with the expert-types that say an Auburn loss would probably keep them in the BCS title game anyway, which I think would do more to rile folks up than Oregon losing (leading to a fairly direct TCU-Auburn matchup). That said, I don't really see it happening.

7:00: Washington @ Washington State (Versus): It's the Apple Cup. The Pac-10 has to be desperately be hoping Washington wins, which would give the Pac-10 a 4th bowl eligible team (assuming Oregon State doesn't win). Fortunately for the conference, Wazzou is just dreadful enough that the desired result should be able to happen without any shenanigans. (Besides, I think the Cougars already used up their shenanigans quota when somehow beat Oregon State 3 weeks ago. Somehow, that's also the last time they played. Perhaps their year would've gone a little more smoothly if they'd spread out their bye weeks a bit?)

7:45: Virginia Tech vs. Florida State (ACC Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): The ACCCG is finally where it should have been all along. While I thought last year's game was reasonably well attended, this year's edition will actually sell out! What a concept, having a title game somewhere most of the member schools can drive to in probably the only state that actually really cares about the ACC! Anyway, VPI has been an unstoppable juggernaut in ACC play, reeling off 10 straight wins (8 in conference) since the JMU debacle. Florida State's had a fine year, but they really backed into this game. Sure, they did just score a big win over their in-state rival, but they still needed Maryland to upset NC State last weekend to even get in. I really like VPI here.

8:00:

Nebraska vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): I can't help but think that when the Big 12 divisions were first drawn up that the folks in both sides of this rivalry thought that this was how it was going to be every year, to make up for the loss of their classic Big 8 rivalry that was played every year from 1929 to 1997. Alas, these two sides have met in the Big 12 title game only once, in 2006 when OU won 21-7. (That said, boy am I pissed off if I'm a Texas A&M fan, since TAMU beat both of these teams this year.) Anyway, Nebraska's had a few dicey encounters this season, with occasional offensive outages and a defense that doesn't measure up to the standard set by last year's. Oklahoma's been more consistent on both sides of the ball and I think they've gotten their mojo back, so to speak. I think the Sooners will win the last Big 12 Championship Game.
Connecticut @ South Florida (ESPN2): For simplicity's sake, UConn should win this game. A loss, along with losses by WVU and Pitt, could set up a potential 5-way tie atop the Big East. I think they'll win as well, but if you really want chaos on this day and are disappointed by the results in Corvallis and Atlanta, this is your last shot.

10:30: Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): Well, the football monopoly in LA hasn't exactly been busted, but both the established monopoly and the pesky upstart have both had bad years this year. That said, UCLA's offense has been AWOL since the 42-28 win back in October over Wazzou. I've got USC winning here.

Well, pay attention to the twitter feed and this site throughout the evening tomorrow night as I line up the final bowl predictions before the BCS and ESPN reveal all Sunday night. Until then, enjoy the last real weekend of the regular college football season!

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 7

2010-12-03T18:09:00.000-08:00

Late once again, but it did at least give a chance to absorb all the bowl announcements from this week. So let's do this.

The BCS

As usual, we'll start with the BCS. With Boise's upset, there were a few changes, to say the last. The top of the pile stays the same, though Auburn did finally pick up enough votes to pass Oregon. With Arkansas upsetting LSU, that also set up the Razorbacks to get into the Sugar Bowl, which will still probably take Ohio State as an at-large. From there, things get tricky. Wisconsin and TCU slot into the Rose, the winner of the Big 12 title game will go to the Fiesta, and the winner of the ACC title game to the Orange. This leaves two slots, one in the Orange and one in the Fiesta. The Orange gets first crack at the remaining pool of teams. However, this pool, as things currently stand, is limited to two teams. Stanford is currently #4 in the BCS, and as such is guaranteed a BCS bid. The Big East winner is as well. Neither is a super attractive option for either bowl (and until Boise and LSU lost I thought Stanford was going to be shut out of the BCS). Conventional wisdom at the moment says that if UConn wins the Big East, then the Orange will take the most attractive TV match-up and get Stanford, leaving the Fiesta with UConn. However, if West Virginia emerges at the top of the Big East pile and Virginia Tech wins the ACC, then the Orange could set up the first meeting of VPI and WVU since 2005. Right now I think UConn will tomorrow so the latter scenario is a moot point.

ACC

The ACC is a jumbled mess right now. Well, not at the top: the winner of the title game will go to the Orange and the loser will go to the Chick-fil-a. From there, it's an absolute mess. I'll just go down the list of ACC bowls and say which teams I think are possibilities for each game:

Champs Sports Bowl: NC State, Maryland, Miami
Sun Bowl: Miami, Maryland, NC State
Car Care Bowl: NC State, Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland
Music City Bowl: Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech
Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina
Military Bowl: Maryland, Clemson, North Carolina, Boston College
Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College, Georgia Tech

The rumor mill isn't much better. What you see on the page are my best guesses, but really almost anything could happen. NC State's loss to Maryland combined with Miami's loss and subsequent firing of Randy Shannon really wrecked the ACC bowl picture and it's tough to say what will happen to those three schools. (Somewhat ironically, the fact that GT didn't get blown out as most folks predicted may have actually helped them in light of the above and also Clemson's blowout loss to South Carolina.)

Big East

Ugh. With Notre Dame's win over USC last weekend I expect them to get an invite to the Champs Sports Bowl, which pushes everything else in the Big East down and even gives them an extra team in Louisville. Otherwise, I don't really want to talk about this much because all the teams play tomorrow and everything could change.

Big 12

At this point, the Big 12 almost certainly won't get two teams into the BCS, so the Cotton went ahead and grabbed Texas A&M. This means the Big 12 title game loser will probably end up in the Alamo Bowl. At issue now are the Insight and Holiday Bowls, which will likely be choosing between Oklahoma State and Missouri. From there, the Big 12 should shake out predictably, with K-State already in the Pinstripe Bowl and Baylor and Texas Tech remaining for the Texas and TicketCity Bowls. I like Baylor getting rewarded for their good season by getting the Texas Bow bid, leaving Texas Tech for the game in the Cotton Bowl that isn't the Cotton Bowl.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward. Wisconsin and Ohio State go to the Rose and Sugar, leaving the Capital One for Michigan State. I then like Penn State to the Outback Bowl, but they could swap places with Iowa and end up in the Gator Bowl. I then like Michigan for the Insight, Illinois to the Texas, and Northwestern left at the TicketCity. Easy. (Now watch me be totally wrong.)

Pac-10

Arizona State is 6-6, but played 2 DI-AA teams (despite the fact that Pac-10 teams only have 3 OOC games anyway) and is not eligible. This means there are currently 3 Pac-10 teams eligible: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Washington and Oregon State can both get eligible with wins in their rivalry games, but I think it goes without saying that one of those teams is a lot more likely to win tomorrow than the other.

SEC

So the SEC will probably get its customary two BCS bids barring disaster in the SEC title game tomorrow. From there, Alabama will probably get the nod for the Capital One, leaving South Carolina for the Outback and LSU for the Cotton. I like Mississippi State to get the invitation to the Chick-fil-a, followed by the Gator reluctantly taking Florida. The rumor mill really likes Tennessee to the Music City, so that works for me, followed by UGA to the Liberty and, finally, Kentucky to the Compass.

Mid-majors

Many mid-major bids have gone out already. The problem is the rumored moves and moves that have already happened. For instance, UTEP (from Conference USA) is in the New Mexico Bowl, which means that there was likely a swap with the New Orleans Bowl which will probably send a WAC team there. (The details of the swap are not yet known for certain though. There could be other swaps as well, engineered by the conferences and the bowls owned by ESPN (which are many). Also, it looks like Boise will likely end up at the Fight Hunger Bowl, eschewing the home blue turf, which may send Nevada there. Miscellaneous MAC teams will probably fill the gaps left by the Pac-10 and Big Ten, though I don't know which ones will go where. Fortunately for bowl directors, though, there will be enough teams, and I predict there will be one extra.

Look for the final predictions to go up late Saturday or early Sunday, as by the time ESPN goes on the air with their selection show most of the bids will probably already be known.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

2010-12-01T00:00:00.000-08:00

The final actual week of the regular season is here!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
8:00: Arizona State @ Arizona (ESPN): Even with a win, ASU won't be granted an exception to count both of their wins against DI-AA teams, meaning they would finish with a 5-6 record for bowl purposes. So all that's left to play for is pride. That's a pretty good motivator, but the Bearcats should still take the Territorial Cup.

Friday
7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (MAC Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): FRIDAY NIGHT MEGA-MACTION. Yes, that's right kids, it's some heavy duty MACtion up in the land of Michigan. Honestly, on paper this isn't really even close. NIU rampaged through MAC competition, scoring 382 points while only allowing 127 on their way to an 8-0 MAC record. The only MAC team that even came within one score of beating the Huskies was Western Michigan, the second most prolific offense in the conference. Miami University, meanwhile, needed an inexplicable Ohio loss for them to even get into the title game, though their only conference loss was to that same Ohio team. Suffice it to say, though, I'll take NIU here.

10:15: Illinois @ Fresno State (ESPN2): You're 5-3 and 3-2 overall in the Big Ten after destroying the two Indiana teams, and you're feeling pretty good. Okay, you just lost to Michigan in a barn burner triple overtime game. Fine, but life is still good. And then you go and lose to Minnesota, at home. Whoops. But then you recover by beating your rival in a baseball stadium and you don't really know what to make of yourself. So you take a break to eat some turkey and prepare for a roadtrip to the nothingness of the Central Valley and Fresno, CA, home of the team that beat you in Champaign last year. All that said, this year hasn't really gone that great for Fresno, with a major conference scalp (a first-week win over Cincy) but a lackluster WAC showing, with a loss to all the teams above you in the standings and barely speaking by teams like Louisiana Tech and Idaho. I guess what I'm getting at here is that this game could probably still go either way, mostly depending on which Illinois team shows up. If it's the one that showed up at Wrigley Field, they'll probably win. If it's the one that lost to the Golden Gophers, they probably won't. But that said, tradition says I have to make a pick here, so I'll take the safe way out and take the Illini.

Stay tuned for bowl predictions and this weekend's forecast...

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/27

2010-11-27T00:00:00.000-08:00

Men, Georgie's a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie's bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That's okay, because we're smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what's going to happen. That Georgie team's going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won't do any of that. While they waste their energy, we'll conserve ours. I've told you that they're bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That's true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We ... are ... smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we'll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they'll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we're smart, we'll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they'll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we'll get the football. And when that happens, I'll think of something and we'll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

2010-11-26T18:26:00.000-08:00

Well, it's the last full-fledged column of the year. Are you ready?

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Michigan @ Ohio State (ABC): And the Big Ten's biggest rivalry is renewed once again, this year a week later, however. Nonetheless, Ohio State should maintain the recent tradition of beating Michigan.
Boston College @ Syracuse (ESPN): Boston College has put together a nice little run for themselves over the last month of the season, whereas the 'Cuse is scuffling a bit at the end. I think this'll continue and that BC should win.
Michigan State @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): Well, I think JoePa should retire, but then again, who's going to tell him that he should? Yeah, that's what I thought. Meanwhile, Sparty's looked awfully shaky over the last month or so, but how can you pick against them? Well, I can't anyway.
South Florida @ Miami (ESPNU): It's a quarterback controversy in Coral Gables! Either way, Miami should win.
Tulane @ Marshall (CBSCS): If you like watching 4-7 teams play each other, well have I got the matchup for you! Anyway, Marshall's defense is something I would generously call "suspect" so I'll take Tulane here.
Indiana @ Purdue (BTN): It's the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket! While Purdue has been "scrappy" and "competitive" despite a boatload of injuries this season, Indiana has just been awful in conference play (two wins versus none, respectively). I'll take the Boilermakers.
Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): Well, both these teams are sort of crawling toward the finish. Tennessee needs a win to get bowl eligible. I don't think they'll get it.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Well, it's UVA and VPI again. I was going to ask aloud how this game ended up on Raycom but then I realied I don't really care about it either. VPI has won every contest since 2003 and that shouldn't change here.

12:30: Kansas vs. Missouri (@Kansas City, MO; FSN): Speaking of playing out the string, Mizzou should take care of Kansas in this neutral-site rivalry.

3:30:

Louisiana State @ Arkansas (@Little Rock, AR; CBS): It's the War Memorial Stadium special of the year for Arkansas, which certainly would make this an attractive upset pick. I can't really pull the trigger on that though.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin (ABC /ESPN): Well, the ride that was this year for Northwestern came to a screeching halt last week at Wrigley with that somewhat inexplicable loss to Illinois. Wisconsin should seal up a Rose Bowl bid here.
Florida @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN): This is tough. I've been pessimistic on FSU for a few weeks now and am actually picking Florida to win in my bowl predictions, so I'll still with that. I think it will be close though.
North Carolina State @ Maryland (ESPN2): If NC State wins, they wrap up the ACC Atlantic and will appear in next week's (almost sold out!) ACC Championship Game. Otherwise, FSU will get in. I think NCSU should be able to take care of UMD and get into the title game, though.
North Carolina @ Duke (ESPNU): Not quite as exciting as the basketball version, that's for sure. UNC should win easily.
Iowa @ Minnesota (BTN): Speaking of winning easily, Iowa.

4:00: Texas Christian @ New Mexico (Versus): TCU should wrap up a perfect season here. Will it be enough to get an invite to a BCS bowl? We'll see.

7:00:

South Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN2): Our second SEC-ACC matchup of the day, the Gamecocks travel to their upstate counterparts, and should come away with the win as long as they're not getting to eager to face Auburn next week.
Mississippi State @ Mississippi (ESPNU): Egg Bowl! For the first time in awhile, Mississippi State is the obvious favorite here, as Ole Miss has simply had a trainwreck that not even the Right Reverend Houston Nutt can fix.

7:30: Oregon State @ Stanford (Versus): What in the hell happened to the Beavers? They've lost to UCLA and both Washington teams but somehow beat Arizona and USC. At 5-5 and Stanford and Oregon remaining on the schedule, this is one of the big reasons why the Pac-10 won't have more than 4 teams go bowling.

7:45: Georgia Tech @ Georgia (ESPN): To Hell with Georgia.

8:00:

Notre Dame @ Southern California (ABC): Well, Notre Dame has woken up the echoes the past couple of weeks but I still like USC here.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (ABC): It's Bedlam! I used to have a soft spot for this game, but it's sort of gotten away from the Cowboys, who haven't won since 2002 and have gotten blown out in the last two contests. Nonetheless, I still like them here to clinch the Big 12 South and face Nebraska next week.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 6

2010-11-26T00:01:00.000-08:00

It's that time once again. Or, by most measures, it's about time it's that time once again. Anyway, the predictions are here. Let's get started.

First, since I waited so long to do this, my prediction that Texas would lose to TAMU has come to pass, meaning that they will not be in a bowl game for the first time since 1997. Which got me to thinking: I've been doing this thing since 1999, so what teams have been in every edition of the predictions? Well, the list isn't very long: Florida State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Oklahoma.
The BCS is a mess right now. For starters, I think I'm the only person on the Internet who thinks Auburn is going to win, so I have them in the title game. I also still have Boise and TCU in, though I think Boise will pass TCU. I have a pretty good idea what the Rose and Sugar will do (take their obligatory non-AQ hit and take a Big Ten team, respectively) but after that I'm not sure. The Orange, however, surely doesn't cherish either of it's options: take a faraway at-large like TCU or Stanford, or take whichever 4-loss team emerges from the Big East. I think they'll bite the bullet and take Pitt (or UConn, or WVU, or whoever it is) leaving the final potential PR nightmare to the Fiesta. I almost think they have to take TCU at this point. But since I seem to differ from everyone else on the Internet on this I could be wrong.
At this point in the year, there's enough solid rumors that I stop guessing as much and try to find as much information for each bowl as I can. This harder than it may seem, because for at least half the bowls no one really cares. (Search for "New Orleans Bowl" in Google news and see what you get. Not much.) Generally, team beat writers and hometown papers for the bowls are the best sources, as they generally talk to bowl commissioners and have at least an idea of what their bowl prospects are. This enabled me to make at least once correction this week, as I moved Alabama from the Cotton to the Capital One Bowl, which triggered a huge shift in the way I was allocating the SEC bids.
There's some potential shenanigans with the Liberty Bowl, but for now I'm going with C-USA vs. SEC. I favor the Liberty over the Compass for now since the Liberty has a higher payout.
No idea where Notre Dame is going to end up. If they upset USC then they could steal a spot from the Big East and into the Champs Sports Bowl, but otherwise they'll probably be the most attractive prize among the 6-6 at-larges. We'll know more Sunday.
The only teams that have been invited so far are marked with double asterisks, and they are Navy, Hawaii, and Army.
For Georgia Tech, everything hinges on beating UGA. If we (somehow) win, then I could see us in the Music City Bowl, and I've even heard the words "Champs Sports" being tossed around though I really doubt they will take us above Miami or NC State. (Especially Miami if they get Notre Dame.) Lose and it's pretty bleak. The Independence is probably a best-case scenario, as the only other remaining teams at that point are likely us, Maryland, and Boston College. I would think the Military Bowl would take Maryland. I don't really know why the Independence would take BC over us, but you never know.
Remember how the Pac-10 only got two teams into the NCAA tournament last March (and only because Cal lost in the Pac-10 title game)? Well, they're trying that again here. Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona are locks to make bowls, but outside of that really only the winner of the Washington-California game has a chance of making it to 6 wins. USC would be in a game but they are, of course, ineligible. Which is a real bummer, as I'm all for the Pac-10's round robin conference schedule, but a few more teams would definitely be in if that 9th game were replaced by Portland State.
There's probably just enough action next weekend to hold off the vast majority of invites because of conference title games and the uncertainty of who will get into the BCS. So this will one come down to the wire, to say the least.

Enjoy rivalry weekend, folks!

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/26

2010-11-26T00:00:00.000-08:00

Like Wake Forest or Maryland or somebody...

If viewing this on Facebook, click "view original post below" to see the video.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

2010-11-23T23:15:00.000-08:00

Lots of football this week, especially with a jam packed Black Friday slate. So why get up before dawn to sit in the cold only to discover that you weren't one of the first three people in line for that 55" TV? Your existing 42" one is probably good enough to watch the following games anyway.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Temple @ Miami (ESPN): Okay, this game already kicked off, so I'm a bit late to the party here. So I won't predict anything.

Thursday
8:00: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Texas (ESPN): What a terrible year for Texas, eh? They join the miser zone for two other BCS teams last year (Florida and Georgia Tech) whose 2010 seasons are not quite living up to the hype. With that said, I don't think they really stand a chance again TAMU.

Friday
11:00:

Louisville @ Rutgers (ESPN2): Who wants to win the Big East? Okay, it probably won't be one of these two teams, but you never know. Especially about the Big East. I think Rutgers can win this one.
Ohio @ Kent State (ESPNU): Ohio should wrap up the MAC East in this early Friday MACtion.

12:00: West Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ABC): It's the Backyard Brawl, with a special helping of "Who Wants to Win the Big East?" Pitt is in pretty good shape, but if they lose, then Connecticut controls their own destiny in the Big east. Yup. That said, Pitt should win, for whatever that means in the context of the Big East.

2:00: Southern Methodist @ East Carolina (CBSCS): SMU clinches a C-USA West title here with a win, a win that would also help Southern Miss in the East. ECU just got torched by a very moribund Rice squad as they posses one of the worst defenses in the country, so I actually like SMU here.

2:30: Auburn @ Alabama (CBS): Well, here it is. Alabama is a slight favorite right now, and as I've discovered now that I'm starting to check the news for the bowl projections, that a lot of people think Auburn will lose. Okay, yeah, this is not a lights out Auburn defense. But this isn't last year's Alabama defense either. They got passed all over by Arkansas, and then they lost to South Carolina and LSU. While I generally don't adhere to the transitive property when it comes to college football, I can't help but note that Auburn has beaten both of those teams, and, in fact, has no losses. (I think it is fair, though, to point out this is only Auburn's fourth home game all year.) That said, I will take Auburn straight up. Well, unless something happens between now and Friday re: Cam Newton, which I doubt.

3:30:

Colorado @ Nebraska (ABC): Yeah, cool, Colorado won last weekend against K-State and Nebraska probably got jobbed in College Station. Huskers should still win this one and wrap up the Big 12 North.
California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (FSN): Since I haven't posted this week's bowl predictions this week, did you know that the Pac-10 could only have four bowl eligible teams. Which sucks that's considered "a thing" because I favor a round-robin conference schedule. ASU is already ineligible because with two DI-AA teams and six losses they can't qualify. UCLA can if they run the table starting here, but I don't think they will.

6:30: Southern Mississippi @ Tulsa (CBSCS): That said, USM's remote C-USA East hopes lie on an extremely unlikely UCF loss to Memphis. That said, USM played well last weekend despite everything, and I think that trend continues.

7:00: Arizona @ Oregon (ESPN): While Cal defended Oregon about as well as you can, they've had a week to think about it. While Arizona is a good team, the Ducks should take care of business back home in Eugene.

10:15: Boise State @ Nevada (ESPN): I will like this game a whole bunch if Nevada can figure out a way to not get blown out. While Nevada is solid, I'm not sure how they can defend Boise. The best case scenario for Nevada is to hope the game turns into something a track meet, but Boise has crushed all their other WAC opposition, and I don't think that there's anything about Nevada's defense that won't prevent that happening to them.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/22

2010-11-22T00:00:00.000-08:00

Once again, it's To Hell With Georgia week here.

However, there's not a lot to talk about this year. With an opening line of somewhere around two touchdowns, Tech is currently not a favorite, to say the least.

However, none of that changes the real mechanics of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Oh, sure, your state rivalry may have more history. Or your state rivalry may currently be for higher stakes other than bowl eligiblity. None of that changes anything, though.

I will rest today and probably tomorrow, but the usual content should be up by the middle of the week.

And once again, To Hell with Georgia!