See my previous post for the update for every other confederation. Here’s what the US, Mexico, and Costa Rica need to do to make the World Cup in their last matches.

The situation:

Team           Pts     GD        GS
Canada         28      +17       23
United States  25      +13       21
Mexico         25       +7       15
Costa Rica     22       +3       11

All other CONCACAF teams have been eliminated. Canada has qualified directly, and the remaining three can do no worse than go to the inter-confederation playoff in June.

Here’s the scenario:

• The United States will clinch with any win or draw at Costa Rica.
• The United States will clinch with a loss at Costa Rica by less than 6 goals.
  • The United States can also clinch with a loss if Mexico loses by a greater margin than the US.
• Mexico will clinch with any win or draw against El Salvador.
• Mexico will clinch with a loss if Costa Rica loses or draws against the United States.
• Mexico can clinch with a loss and Costa Rica wins, depending on the margin in both matches (i.e., Mexico loses 1-0 and Costa Rica wins 1-0 would still put Costa Rica in on goal difference, +6 to +4, as well as the United States at +12).
• Costa Rica can only clinch with a win and either:
  • Defeating the United States by 6 or more goals, putting them through on goal difference.
  • Defeating the United States by a sufficient margin to overcome Mexico’s goal difference advantage with a Mexico loss.