Monthly Archives: November 2018

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

Naturally, I have to try to follow up my 5000 word… thing and write a normal post. It’s also really late and I have to be at work tomorrow. Here goes!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): I’m just going to assume the Bulls got this. You got this, right Bulls?

8:00: Washington vs. Utah (Pac-12 Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; FOX): I wonder if I could just, like, show up at Levi’s tomorrow and they’d let me in. I’m pretty sure the Pac-12 could use the help. Whereas it would’ve at least been fun if Wazzu could make it here, this is just, well, it’s a thing that definitely shows off the Pac-12 can play defense, too. UDub should be able to out-athlete the Utes, as long as Jake Browning keeps them in the game, at least.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): Second verse, same the first? Nah, probably not. And for the sake of wanting an interesting team in the playoff, I really, really hope not.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference Championship; ESPN): It’s the Fun Belt title game and I’m taking App State the whole way. Next up: make up game lightning round!
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCE): NCSU
  • Marshall @ Virginia Tech (ACCE): VPI
  • Akron @ South Carolina (SECA): USC

1:30: Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee State (Conference USA Championship; CBSS): So here’s a situation where UAB actually kinda got waxed against MTSU last weekend. But hey, the Blazers turned it over a couple of times and got sacked a bunch, so… I’ll ignore my own advice from the Big 12 game above and say Go Blazers!

3:00: Stanford @ California (“The Big Game”; Pac12): By far the more interesting of the two Pac-12 games this weekend, it’ll probably be kind of a mess up in Berkeley due to the rain. Which, well, if we’re running and sliding everywhere, let’s face it, that probably favors Stanford.

3:30: Memphis @ Central Florida (American Conference Championship; ABC): UCF should be good enough without Milton that they’ll win anyway, but nonetheless… would they be the G5 pick even with a loss? Hopefully we don’t have to find out.

4:00: Georgia vs. Alabama (Southeastern Conference Championship; CBS): Bama. Because the last thing I need right now is a Georgia upset that all but guarantees that they both make the freakin’ playoff.

7:45: Fresno State @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship; ESPN): This should actually be pretty fun, but considering the probably conditions (Boise in the first weekend of December) I’m going with the hometown Broncos.

8:00:

  • Northwestern vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Conference Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Well, maybe keep an eye on that Mountain West title game because boy howdy these primetime games look bleak. After Ohio State did… whatever they did Michigan last week, they have to be prohibitive favorites here. And they are.
  • Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Clemson is our best chance for something interesting to happen in the playoff if Oklahoma doesn’t get in. They have to win. They just have to.

The End of an Era

This column as been edited, but there’s still going to be spelling and grammar mistakes. My apologies.

On Tuesday, Georgia Tech announced that Paul Johnson would “step down” as head football coach after the bowl game.

I don’t do posts like this around the site. I was about to say “anymore”, but let’s face it, I rarely post anything outside of college football bowl games and TV schedules and the occasional World Cup Update. But I think it’s worth doing a bit of retrospective on my own personal memories of the Paul Johnson era at Georgia Tech.

I matriculated at Georgia Tech in August 2003. My entire educational career before then took place in Alabama. I learned about the Iron Bowl at about the same time I was being taught how to write in cursive. My parents are both from out-of-state, so having no native rooting interest I’m pretty sure I picked Auburn because of my third grade teacher. By the time I reached high school, I’d developed an interest in college football, as evidenced by my bowl predictions stretching all the way back to 1999. (“all 23 bowls” how quaint!) However, college football didn’t have much of an influence on my choice of colleges. Georgia Tech was my first choice due to having strong academic rankings and being about the right distance from home (not too close, but still drivable). That Tech plays major college football didn’t hurt, of course.

On Thursday, August 28, 2003 I visited Bobby Dodd Stadium for the first time. As part of the Freshman Experience program at Tech, my freshman dorm RA tried to convince us all to go down to the stadium to watch our season opener against BYU on the big screen. I’m reasonable sure I was the only one to go, whereupon we watched a dispiriting 24-13 loss. Not a strong start! Naturally, the first home game changed everything. Highly ranked in the pre-season but coming off a shutout at the hands of USC, Auburn rolled into the Flats looking to right the ship. Instead, we won 17-3. My first home game rapidly turned into the first (and only) time I’d ever rushed the field. The goal posts came down. Reggie Ball, then a sensational freshman quarterback, was carried off the field. I distinctly remember someone wheeling welding equipment out of the front one of the frat houses on Techwood Drive as the the goal posts were carried down out the stadium and down the road.

Well, it turned out that Auburn team wasn’t really very good (they wound up going 8-5), but it was still a pretty fitting metaphor for the team of my youth being discarded and fully embracing the team of my alma mater. I estimate I only missed two home games in my 3.5 years at the Institute. I watched as the sensational freshman QB turned into possibly the worst four year starter in the history of college football. (Keep in mind that he had Calvin Johnson to throw to for the last three years, too.)

The results over those years had a certain bizarre similarity. For starters, there’d always be one upset that made us think “this is it! we’re relevant again!” In 2003, that was the win over Auburn or the 7-3 win over a Maryland team that went 10-3. In 2004, that was an early season win over Clemson. In 2005, it was a season opening win over Auburn (which featured my personal favorite Calvin Johnson catch) and a late season win over Miami. In 2006, it was going 7-1 in conference. In 2007, it was… well, yeah. Then, the tables would be turned, and you’d come back to Earth. In 2003, that was losing 41-17 to Duke the week after that Maryland game. In 2004, losing two games after beating Clemson. In 2005, that was losing again in Charlottesville and getting blown out by Virginia Tech. In 2006, it was having a 5 game winning streak snapped by a 31-7 loss to a mediocre Clemson team. (Not to mention the 9-6 loss to Wake in the ACC championship, ugh.) Finally, there was the usual, dispiriting loss to Georgia that was always somehow close enough to inspire hope but still ultimately a loss.

Suffice it to say, the usual result was somewhere around 7 wins and 5 losses. The college football internet took to calling it the “Chan Gailey Equilibrium”. After one last 7-5 in 2007, the plug was pulled. A coaching search ensued. I honestly don’t remember my feelings at the time, but the first article to appear on the site that mentioned Paul Johnson was entitled “Paul Johnson Passes Out the Burnsauce“, so I think I was on-board by the time April of 2008 rolled around. By the end of 2008, the bandwagon would start to look a bit crowded. The momentum built as Tech was 6-2 heading into the Florida State game that season. After FSU had joined the ACC in 1992, Tech had failed to beat them even once. After 2003, the ACC split into divisions, and so the 2008 game was the first meeting between the two since then. The result was one of the luckiest things I’ve ever seen on a football field, as I wrote at the time. I also was able to strike out one of Tech’s major football hexes, thanks to a play that would become known as “The Miracle on North Avenue“.  However, the real announcement to the world was Tech’s 48-23 beatdown of Miami on Thursday night on a 472 yard rushing performance.

It turned out that presaged what would be, for several years, my favorite Georgia Tech win ever. The next week, Tech would defeat a 10-2 Georgia team 45-42, in Athens. It was Tech’s first win against Georgia since 2000, and the first one I’d witnessed since becoming a fan of the Jackets. The Georgia Tech corners of the Internet were literally abuzz. I hosted a private server with video footage of the entire game that someone had captured. I even uploaded highlights of the pivotal third quarter to YouTube.

The mood around the program was the highest I’d ever seen it. Tech even managed to get a rare bid to its hometown bowl game, the Peach Bowl. Hey, we’d already flummoxed two SEC opponents, why not another? (We had beat Miss State 38-7 earlier in the season. With that and a win over FCS Gardner-Webb, Tech was 3-0 against teams nicknamed “Bulldogs” as well.) Well, Paul Johnson said at some point that “physical superiority cancels all theories”, and that was demonstrated aptly in the 38-3 rout by LSU. Presaging perhaps the best strategy against the triple option was simply to just live in our backfield. This was usually pointed out as some sort of unique flaw to the system, even though I’m pretty sure any offense struggles when you can’t block the other guys. Now, if you wanted to say it was a flaw in the type of guys Tech could recruit, then that’d be more fair. Nonetheless, Tech went 9-4 on the year. I cannot imagine that anyone saw that coming.

The 2009 season started off with a win over Clemson on an early Thursday night, but then a loss to Miami a week later. With three conference games in September, the succeeding matchup against UNC was vitally important. Tech made a statement, winning 24-7. After winning their first ever game in the state of Mississippi against Miss State, Tech proceeding to completely cross-off the Florida State hex by winning a track meet in Tallahassee. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention we also took care of that pesky Charlottesville losing streak, too. In fact, after the Miami loss, Tech kept rolling, winning eight in a row en route to the ACC Coastal title. Tech was 10-1, facing a 7-5 Georgia team. At home. For one of the very few times since Tech left the SEC in the 60’s, Georgia Tech was a favorite against Georgia.

It was probably the most painful loss I can remember. We were favored. You may think that’s hard to imagine now, but it was a pretty hard thing to imagine even then. To add insult to injury, Georgia actually out-rushed us, 339 yards to 205 yards. It sucked. (The previous sentence may be an understatement.) But regardless, before the game my brother and I had made plans. I had booked plane tickets. That’s right, I was flying to Tampa, Florida. On purpose.

On the first weekend of December 2009, I took a redeye to Tampa. The reason why I was in Tampa requires some explanation, because I feel like just saying “that’s where the ACC championship game was” is too simple. When the conference initially expanded to 12 teams, one of the teams they added was Miami. This was the early 2000’s, and the assumption was essentially that Florida State and Miami would dominate the conference for the foreseeable future. (This wasn’t entirely off-base, seeing as how at that point FSU had won or split every conference title since they’d joined the conference.) So, the first several ACC Championship Games were held at venues in Florida, far away from the rest of the conference, but close to the presumed perennial champs.

Naturally, Florida State and Miami have played each other in exactly zero ACC Championship Games. (In fact, Miami has only won the Coastal once.) And so it was that Clemson and Georgia Tech would face a rematch of their early-September game in sunny, warm Tampa, Florida. Because, hey, if the local teams aren’t going to be in the game, at least the weather is nice down there, right? NOPE. It was cloudy all day, with temperature at kickoff in the low-50’s and a pretty good breeze making seem colder than it was. Adding insult to injury, no one in Tampa seemed to know there was a football game, with us getting puzzled looks throughout most of the day for wearing our Georgia Tech gear. The game couldn’t move to Charlotte fast enough.

The game turned out to be a bit of a track meet. Tech, however, kicked a 28 yard field goal at the end of the first half to go in with a 16-13 lead. Despite the slim lead, CJ Spiller and Clemson were running amok. Nonetheless, Tech continued to lead throughout the third quarter. When Joshua Nesbitt completed a 70 yard pass to Demaryius Thomas, the game seemed like it was a over. Tech would end the quarter up 33-20. However, in the fourth quarter Andre Ellington and CJ Spiller would go to work. Clemson drove down the field and in short order got back to 33-27. Tech then would start driving, but would stall out and turn the ball over on downs at the Clemson 37. There was 8:35 left in the game, and all it took was a 54 yard CJ Spiller run and three more plays for Clemson to take a 34-33 lead.

Tech started their drive at their own 14 and quickly ran into trouble. With 4:50 left in the game, Tech went for it on 4th and short from their own 25. An risky decision, for sure, but possibly my favorite quality about Paul Johnson was that he was always playing to win. Nesbitt ran to the empty space on the defensive line and got it. ESPN’s cameras kept showing kicker Scott Blair on the sidelines as Tech drive and the clock drained. Clemson used their last timeout to stop the clock at 1:25 and Tech on their 15 yard line. Dwyer received the handoff, cut outside, broke a tackle, and scored. 39-34, Tech. I turned to my brother, noted the 1:20 left on the clock, and said “too much time”. Tech went for two. It was close, and ruled good on the field, but mysteriously overturned on replay.

Clemson wound up with good field position on a short kick, but they couldn’t get a first down. Tech kneeled it out for their first ever non-shared ACC title. The NCAA will tell you that game and the Georgia game that year didn’t count, but the gut punch I felt after that UGA game and the oranges I saw Tech’s players toss into the crowd in Tampa sure as hell felt real to me. And the worst experience I’ve ever had at an IHOP also felt extremely real. Nonetheless, Tech was set to play in their first major bowl game since 1966, facing Iowa in the Orange Bowl. The Iowa game went moderately better than the Peach Bowl did the year before, but not by much, facing the same issues. Regardless, Tech football was at its highest point since they were national title contenders back in the 50’s.

They would enter the 2010 season ranked. However, it turned out that 2009 had more in common with the outlier 1990 than that bygone era. The loss of defensive stars Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett was worse than anticipated and the season turned out to be a struggle, with an early loss at Kansas. Tech was 5-2 entering the Clemson game, where the Tigers snapped their 4 game losing streak to us, and then things went from bad to worse when Nesbitt broke his arm in the Virginia Tech game. 6-5 Tech then suffered a loss to 5-6 Georgia, a game which wound hinging on a missed PAT that led to a sequence where Tech intentionally let Georgia score to get the ball back and UGA won 42-34. A disappointing, dispirited 14-7 loss to Air Force in the Independence Bowl capped off the season.

Suffice it to say, the 2010 season wound up being a sobering remember that we were still Georgia Tech after all. So, naturally, the team ran out to a 6-0 start to the season. The third game may be the most famous, though. Paul Johnson definitely remembers things, and boy howdy did he let the Kansas Jayhawks know it. In the 66-24 rout, Orwin Smith took Tech’s first offensive snap of the game 95 yards for a touchdown, but the game was still somewhat in doubt at the half as Tech led 24-17. Here were Tech’s next three scoring plays, though: 63 yard touchdown run, 67 yard pass to Orwin Smith, and a 52 yard run by Roddy Jones. In a little more than 8 minutes of game time, it was 45-17. There are valid criticisms of Paul Johnson’s offense. The inability to score quickly, though, is not one of them.

Regardless, the excitement was back and Tech rose to 12th in the country. However, all but the most gold-colored observers knew that the 6-0 record was not built on the backs of really quality opponents. Discounting the win over FCS Western Carolina to start the season, their first five FBS opponents would wins up with a combined 6-41 record. Perhaps caught looking ahead to a three game stretch that would feature Miami, Clemson, and VPI, Tech lost 24-21 to Virginia, dropped the next contest to Miami, threw in a win over #5 Clemson, but then lost to VPI. Another loss to Georgia meant a trip to the Sun Bowl and an OT loss to Utah.

The storm clouds were on the horizon, and the 2012 season for the most part did nothing to quell them. However, the last two games of the season would become memorable for entirely different reasons. Entering the ACC title game on a technicality and with a 6-6 record, Tech gave Florida State all the much more well regarded Noles could’ve possibly anticipated, but it still wasn’t enough and the Jackets lost 21-15. Some NCAA maneuvering later to ensure a trip to a bowl game despite a 6-7 record meant another trip to the Sun Bowl, but this time the dispirited and disinterested team was Lane Kiffin’s USC Trojans. Indeed, most of the press even before the game focused on how it seemed like Tech enjoyed most of the pregame festivities, with one of the better photos being of a smiling (!), dancing (!!) Paul Johnson and a disinterested Kiffin.The 2013 season didn’t project to be anything special, and indeed it wasn’t, though it did feature another cratering of a team, a 56-0 rout of Syracuse. However, once again the most memorable game of the season was a loss, one that possible rivals the 2010 loss to Georgia. This was a double-overtime, home loss in a game where Tech led 20-0 in the second quarter. Nonetheless, I decided to go the bowl game, since it was the Music City Bowl in Nashville, an easy drive up from my hometown. My Dad and ventured up for a game that turned out to be… not much. Tech got within a score near the end, but a safety snuffed out the last hope. I then made an ill-advised choice to head to a Buffalo Wild Wings in Franklin afterward, thinking it’d at least be quick. It wasn’t. (One of these days, I’ll remember not to go out to eat after a Tech game.)

After two mediocre seasons, the offense wasn’t the problem, and I didn’t consider it solved. I still support Paul Johnson, even now. But the Internet discontent started to grow. Naturally, one of the three best seasons in modern Georgia Tech history happened next.

It started off innocuously enough, 5-0 with wins over Virginia Tech and Miami. And then the wheels came off, with consecutive loses to Duke and UNC. “But wait”, you say, “you’re saying one of ‘three best seasons in modern Georgia Tech history’ featured losses to both Carolina and Duke? In football?” Yes, yes I am. All it took was a little bit of luck. Or a lot a bit of luck, in a game that if 30-for-30 did shorts would feature the announcer stating “What if I told you… that a major college football team could lose fumbles on five consecutive possessions to start a game?” The Pitt game sparked Tech, getting them to 8-2 and keeping them in the Coastal race, but needing an upset of Clemson in their last conference game. Dashaun Watson went down with a knee injury in the first quarter, and the without him the Tiger offense had no chance. Tech climbed to 9-2, clinched the Coastal, and rose to #16 in the rankings.

They were still underdogs against #9 Georgia in Athens. If Tech won, it assured them of at least another trip to the Orange Bowl, if not an outside shot at the new playoff. The game was tight, with a 7-7 halftime score. The game was tense and full of untimely turnovers for both teams. The worst of all for Tech came after going up 21-17. Paul Johnson elected to direct Harrison Butker to kick short, and Lawrence Austin ran under it and recovered it. Tech was set to go up two scores. Justin Thomas pump faked and the ball slipped out of his hand. (I still don’t understand how it wasn’t a forward pass, but whatever.) Georgia promptly drove 70 yards for the go ahead touchdown. Tech returned the kickoff to their own 43 with 13 seconds left.

It looked pretty hopeless. Justin Thomas scrambled out-of-bounds at the Georgia 36. In this moment, Paul Johnson obviously knew something about this Harrison Butker kid that most of us didn’t. I assumed we would attempt a Hail Mary, but on came Butker for a 53 yard kick, 4 yards beyond his career long at the time. He calmly stepped back and kicked the hell out of it, and it cleared the crossbar by just enough, such that it hit on top of the support that holds the posts up. 24-24. Overtime, for the second year in a row.

This time, we didn’t suffer two excruciating overtimes, just one. Zach Laskey plowed in the fifth play, but the drama wasn’t over: Butker’s PAT was blocked. Tech, suffice it to say, would be unlikely to turn that trick if they couldn’t keep UGA out of the end zone. And in short order, UGA was at the Tech nine-yard line and knocking. But Huston Mason didn’t see D.J. White baiting him into the quick slant. Interception. Game. Maybe it’s because we lost, but I find it kind of funny the next game tends to be forgotten. But for the most part, it was a hell of a game. Tech entered the 2014 ACC Championship 10-3 and #11 in the country, against a 12-0 Florida State team that was #4 and was led by Jamesis Winston. Unfortunately, after tying it at 28 in the third quarter, FSU kicked three field goals to pull ahead and Tech didn’t recover until it was too late. However, with the Noles in the inaugural playoff, Tech earned a berth in the Orange Bowl to play Dak Prescott and Mississippi State.

The main thing I remember about that Orange Bowl is watching it with my family and then sometime in the third quarter realizing that… this game is kind of a rout. Sure, it was 21-20 at the half, but Tech scored two plays into the second half and didn’t look back. Dak threw for 453 yards, but Tech’s 452 yards rushing (and 125 passing for Justin Thomas, not too shabby) proved superior on the night. By the time Miss State scored again to start the third quarter, it was 42-27 Tech and the game was out-of-reach. So when I said that 2014 team was one of the three best in modern Tech history, the ones I’m comparing it against are the 2009 team and the 1990 team. 1990 was the best, obviously. But 2009 and 2014 have their own qualities. 2009 featured two wins against Clemson and Tech’s first (and only) outright ACC title. But I’m inclined to take the 2014 team over them. They didn’t win the conference, but they did beat Georgia and won the Orange Bowl. (An honorable, non-Paul Johnson coached mention goes to the 1999 team, when Joe Hamilton probably should’ve won the Heisman.)

One thing the 2014 team had in common with the 2009 team was cratering the season afterward. And boy howdy, did they. Tech entered the season ranked and looked to be rolling again after routing Alcorn State and Tulane. (The former is one of the only two Tech home games I’ve been to since I graduated. The other one would also happen in 2015.) An early season 30-22 loss in South Bend, combined with a ton of injuries, put Tech in a spiral from which it would not recover. With one exception.On October 24th, 2015, the #9 Florida State Seminoles would play at Bobby Dodd Stadium for the first time since the 2008 “Miracle on North Avenue”. Tech was already 2-5 and reeling, but the game started the way a lot of weird upsets do: tight. Roberto Aguayo would extend FSU’s lead going into the half to go up 16-10. No one knew it at the time, but it’d be the last time FSU scored. Tech’s offense still couldn’t get much going in the second half, but they did intercept Everett Golson in the end zone and Harrison Butker proved himself superior to the Lou Groza award winner and got Tech tied on a pair of field goals. (The reader would be wise to note which of these kickers still has a job in the NFL, as well.)

After Butker tied it, 0:54 showed on the clock. FSU started at their own 25, but Tech’s defense finally looked like it was done. FSU drove all the way to the Georgia Tech 38. Jimbo Fisher elected to since his Groza winner out to attempt the kick. The 56-yard attempt was blocked and rolled harmlessly to the 22 yard line. Ignoring the advice of basically everyone on the Tech sideline, Lance Austin picked it up. And he ran. He ran 78 yards, all the way to the north end zone. Alone in my living room, I jumped probably the highest I’ve ever jumped since that time a freshman named Calvin Johnson caught a pass at Clemson. It was the “Miracle on Techwood“. (Presumably, the “Miracle on Bobby Dodd Way” is waiting for whenever we play FSU at home again, which my guess will be in approximately 2028.)

Nonetheless, the 2015 season ended with a whimper and the end of Tech’s long bowl streak. But continuing the whiplash, the 2016 season was a lot of fun. I’m convinced that Justin Thomas was the best QB Paul Johnson ever had, and he was instrumental. The 2016 season didn’t seem that great at first, with a 3-3 start and losses to Clemson (now the fully formed powerhouse we’ve come to know and love) and Miami, and Pitt perhaps still mad about that “five fumbles’ thing. But in echoes of 2010, Justin Thomas missed most of the Virginia Tech game, but this time the correct Tech prevailed. Making do with backup Matthew Jordan, Paul Johnson stripped the offense down to its essential components. Dives, QB runs, and toss sweeps ground the Hokies into submission with 309 yards of rushing, and Tech won 30-20. After dispensing with Virginia, it was time, once again, for Georgia.

The Kirby Smart battlestation that we hate and loathe was not yet at this point fully operational. In his first season, he sought experienced coaches (such as Brian Van Gorder) to assist him against the option. For a good portion of the game, it seamed to work. Tech would only gain 226 yards rushing on the game, and the halftime score was 14-14, which UGA extended to 27-14 in the 3rd quarter. However, in the fourth quarter Tech forced UGA to go three-and-out from midfield and the Jackets drove, thanks to some long pass plays to Brad Stewart and Qua Searcy. Tech closed it to 27-21. Then Jacob Eason proceeded have a moment that caused him to say this after the game: “The only thing you’re going to remember for the rest of your life is that you threw a pick and lost to Tech, so everything else is meaningless.” UGA just needed a couple first downs to clinch the game, but instead one of his passes glanced off his own guy and Lance Austin caught it. Game on at the Georgia 46. Tech proceeded to drive, but stalled once they got first and goal at the 6. Tech used a timeout on third and goal, and the next play began with a toss to Qua Searcy. He looked back at Justin Thomas, but UGA detected the trick play and covered Thomas. However, this left enough room in the middle of the field for Searcy to leap from the four yard line. He held on to the ball just long enough to break the plane, and Harrison Butker wouldn’t get his crucial PAT blocked this time. 28-27, Tech. And yeah, I saved that copy of the sports section. According to the Internet, it might be the last time we ever beat them. (Hah.) A perfunctory beatdown of Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Bowl capped off a return to form for the Jackets.

Alas and alack, that means we have to talk about 2017. Sure it wasn’t as bad as 2015, but it started off exponentially more painful. As usual, I spent the first weekend of the college football season in Seattle at PAX. A buddy of mine with family in the area was there as well, so his uncle was gracious enough to record the opening game against Tennessee so I could watch it later. For hours, I cut myself off the Internet (fortunately, college football discussion is not exactly rampant at a video game convention) as we headed up there and had dinner. I likely began watching the recording around the end of regulation.

Missing stars like Justin Thomas and Harrison Butker, I had no idea what to expect. As it turned out, neither did Tennessee. New quarterback TaQuon Marshall racked up 249 yards and threw for another 120 for good measure. The Internet joked about “0-1 and undefeated Georgia Tech” afterward because the box score would indicate a rout. Tech racked up 655 yards of offense to the Vols’ 369 and held the ball for 41 minutes. The game came down to three plays. After going up 28-14 in the fourth quarter, Tech didn’t score again in regulation. Two drives later, up 28-21 Tech ran the ball to the Tennessee 7 and fumbled. But at least Tennessee has terrible field position, right? Nah, the Vols made it look easy and tied the game with 1:29 left. Tech drove and got to the Tennessee 19 yard line, but unfortunately Harrison Butker was not walking through that door. Shawn Davis missed the 36 yard field goal that would have won the game, and it went to overtime.

I only saw the first overtime. Tech scored in good order, and so did Tennessee. In Paul Johnson fashion, we went for the win, and didn’t get it. The season wasn’t done dealing gut punches after that. After having a game against eventual national champions UCF cancelled, Tech rolled into then undefeated Miami with a little bit of moment after three straight wins. After going up 24-13, Tech’s bend-but-don’t-break defense almost got away with it. Driving from their own 8 yard line, Miami’s last chance drive stalled at the Tech 43 yard line. On 4th and 10, the pass hit the defender in the helmet, and somehow the Miami receiver caught the tip. Miami hit the 24 yard field goal and won, 25-24. Tech did beat Wake after that, and got another nifty win over VPI, but the season was lost.

And, finally, this season. I think I can understand why Paul Johnson decided it was a good time to hang ’em up. It looked like we were going nowhere fast after a 1-3 start. TaQuon wasn’t quite living up to the promise he showed in that Tennessee game. Hesitant on his reads and otherwise looking a step slow thanks to injury, Tobias Oliver started seeing playing time. The new defense also looked, well, we got more turnovers, but otherwise it still mostly involves hanging for dear life. But that said, it got better. The 1-3 start turned into a nifty little 7-5 season, with a beatdown of Brian Van Gorder and the hapless Louisville Cardinals and yet another win over Virginia Tech (that’s three in a row!).

But when I say I can understand, this was going to be another transitional period again for the Jackets. That new defense still needs a ton of work, and the quarterback situation is unsettled. The offense still works, but Clemson and Georgia are national powers now at least least for the near term future. I would have fully supported him coming back again next season, though.

I’ve been a fan of Georgia Tech under two very, very different head coaches. Tech under Paul Johnson had lower lows than Gailey, yes. But the highs were so, so much higher. Gailey effectively squandered the greatest player to ever set foot on the Flats. Under a “high school offense”, Tech won the conference, played for the conference three more times besides, beat Georgia three times, and went to the Orange Bowl twice. That’s a damn good resume.

His successor will face a lot of challenges. People say we should temper our expectations to transfer to a more conventional offense. I agree with what Paul Johnson had to say about that, though, which effectively, “it’s not like these guys have only been doing this since fifth grade”. Case in point: he took Chan Gailey’s group of kids and won as many games as Gailey did in his best season in first. Oh, and he beat Georgia.

Even when it looked hopeless against Georgia last Saturday, he was going for it whenever it was remotely reasonable. To the annoyance of my Dad, Marshall was throwing the ball in garbage time. Why? Maybe he knew that was going to be it. But really, it always fit with his general ethos: we are here to try to win the game. I think that ethos is at least partly why his players love him, which is something I’ve heard people who know what they’re talking about say repeatedly.

I hope the Internet is wrong and we don’t go the boring NFL retread route, even if he is an alum. We are not going to out-Clemson Clemson or out-Georgia Georgia, and we sure as hell aren’t going to be doing it by hiring guys that haven’t coached in college in twenty years. (And weren’t even that successful as NFL head coaches, besides.) I want someone to come in that doesn’t give a crap what you think he should be doing. I want someone to come in and recruit the hell out of not just Atlanta but the whole country. I want someone to come up and keep lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball. I want someone that will always keep it interesting.

If it sounds like I mostly want Paul Johnson with better recruiting and maybe a better defense… well, that’s probably about right.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 5 Redux

So the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings came out yesterday and they were news enough to me that I felt the need to revise this week’s predictions to adjust for the inevitable four-team SEC scenario. A look at the top 10 of the rankings is all I need to prove my point:

  1. Alabama (in the playoff no matter what)
  2. Clemson (in the playoff with a win over Pitt)
  3. Notre Dame (12-0 and doesn’t play a game this weekend)
  4. Georgia (in the playoff if they beat Alabama, otherwise in the Sugar since they probably won’t fall below Florida or LSU)
  5. Oklahoma (in the playoff if they beat Texas and Georgia loses to Alabama)
  6. Ohio State (in the Rose Bowl if they beat Northwestern, but needs help to get to the playoff)
  7. Michigan (doesn’t play this weekend, at-large berth at a minimum)
  8. Central Florida (probably gets G5 bid even if they lose to Memphis)
  9. Florida (doesn’t play this weekend, at large berth for sure)
  10. LSU (doesn’t play this weekend, so at large berth for sure)

The at-large berths in the New Year’s Six bowls go to the top-rated G5 team and the other top three ranked schools not otherwise included. Since only some of these teams will even play this weekend, it’s likely that we’re looking at something below the final rankings. The only drama is that in the event of a Texas loss, they could fall below West Virginia, which would give the the Sugar Bowl bid to the Mountaineers in the case that Oklahoma is in the playoff.

So this does change my predictions to the SEC bowls drastically, but for the other games not so much.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 5

A fresh copy is here. Before we begin, let me also link this touching eulogy to Florida State’s bowl streak. It was 36.

In some ways, this week was easier. With a better distribution of New Year’s Six games across all the conferences (well, except the ACC), that meant that more of the power conference filled more of their obligations. Provided Virginia Tech beats Marshall Saturday, we will be at 81 teams out of the 78 we need.

However, in some ways this was harder. I had to try to predict what the committee will do with Washington State and LSU. So let’s start there.

The Playoff and New Year’s Six Bowls

  • Michigan’s loss to Ohio State is a seismic event for the predicted playoff field. The question is, of course, barring any other upsets (more on that in a second), Ohio State or Oklahoma? I have no idea what the committee will prioritize, but personally I’d go with the team that didn’t lose by 29 to Purdue.
  • Upset scenario #1: Both Oklahoma and Ohio State are in, of course, if both win their conferences and Clemson loses to Pittsburgh. I don’t rate this as likely, suffice it to say.
  • Upset scenario #2: Georgia beats Alabama. This my personal worst-case scenario, as both 1-loss Georgia and 1-loss Alabama would almost certainly be in, probably as #3 and #4 seeds, respectively.
  • Playoff certainty: Notre Dame is in. Bank it.
  • Somewhat ironically, Washington’s upset in the Apple Cup will probably actually help the Pac-12 get two teams into the New Year’s Six. Wazzu still only has two losses and should rank above other at-large candidates, ensuring they get an at-large bid. The winner of the Pac-12 title game goes to the Rose Bowl regardless.
  • Also helpful: if Wazzu doesn’t drop too far, the SEC will probably only get three teams into the New Year’s Six. Georgia is probably Sugar Bowl bound unless they get absolutely obliterated by Alabama, so that leaves Florida as probably ranked ahead of LSU and Kentucky. This may also depend on how far Texas falls if they lose to Oklahoma, so this is really to-be-determined. This could very well change for the last predictions depending on how we see the committee’s priorities when the new rankings are released.
  • I’m putting Central Florida in the Fiesta purely because they went to the Peach last year. I actually don’t know if this is a factor or not. Right now, I also don’t know how the committee will regard McKenzie Milton’s injury. If they defeat Memphis, I still suspect all is good. However, if UCF goes down, then the spot probably belongs to the Mountain West winner.

ACC

  • Barring a catastrophic upset of Clemson, the ACC picture is pretty clear at the top: either Syracuse or NC State will head to the Camping World Bowl.
  • After that, the ACC is mush. I figure NC State will go to the Belk if they don’t go to Orlando, otherwise that spot will probably go to Pitt or Virginia.
  • I think the Sun Bowl will wind up with either Pitt or Boston College, with the team that doesn’t go there in the Pinstripe.
  • I think the Gator Bowl will want Miami, which hasn’t necessarily proven to be the case in the past, but I deem it likely. If not Miami, then maybe Georgia Tech.
  • Since the Military Bowl is in Annapolis, they’re going to look for either easy travel for alums or a team that hasn’t been there before. Possibilities along those lines are Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, so I’ll put them in the former.
  • At this point, we’re to the Independence Bowl, so I think that is where Georgia Tech will wind up.
  • The Quick Lane Bowl can then choose between Virginia, Duke, and Wake Forest. Considering that Duke’s only a national brand in basketball, I figure UVA will get this slot.
  • Then in a battle between Duke and Wake Forest, I’m taking Duke in the Gasparilla Bowl.
  • This does leave Wake Forest without a bowl bid, so I slotted them in the ESPN-controlled First Responder Bowl as a replacement for a missing Big Ten team.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is relatively straightforward due to its bowl contracts. Michigan and Ohio State will wind up in the playoff-controlled bowls one way or the other, so the rest is just fitting the puzzle pieces together.

Big 12

The only drama is whether Iowa State or West Virginia will go to the Alamo Bowl. I picked the latter. There is more drama if Texas doesn’t get a New Year’s Six bid, though, in which case UT probably goes to the Alamo and then WVU and Iowa State will be fighting for the Camping World Bowl slot.

Pac-12

With both Washington teams likely now in New Year’s Six bowls, it’s pretty straightforward here as well.

SEC

There seems to be a lot of rumors out there that an SEC West team, probably Texas A&M, will go to the Outback Bowl this year. Kentucky is probably a lock for the Citrus since they will probably be the highest rated team left out of the New Year’s Six, but that really depends on how far LSU falls. As-is, I slotted LSU into the Gator.

Everyone Else

To give teams time to get passports in order, the Bahamas Bowl already announced their teams: Toledo and FIU. I do kinda wish this was like the old days when many of the bowls could announce teams after Thanksgiving, but alas the New Year’s Six just introduces too many variables. Regardless, the real debate for me in this space was what to do with BYU and Army. Most seem to think Army will head back to the Armed Forces Bowl since there won’t be enough Big 12 teams to fill that spot. As for BYU, they supposedly have a deal with ESPN to put them in an ESPN-controlled bowl, that seems to have mostly centered around the now-defunct Poinsettia Bowl. I wound up putting them as an at-large in the Cheez-It Bowl, working under the assumption ESPN wouldn’t be able to find them anything since most of the other at-large spots are tied up by conference backup affiliations. However, there’s been shenanigans around these things in the past and ESPN moves in mysterious ways. I will be keeping an eye out for news on this front.

As-is, the next projections will be out as soon as I can get them out Saturday night or Sunday morning.

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/24

Men, Georgie’s a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie’s bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That’s okay, because we’re smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what’s going to happen. That Georgie team’s going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won’t do any of that. While they waste their energy, we’ll conserve ours. I’ve told you that they’re bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That’s true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We … are … smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we’ll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they’ll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we’re smart, we’ll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they’ll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we’ll get the football. And when that happens, I’ll think of something and we’ll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry