Monthly Archives: December 2010

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

With one DI-A game this weekend various sorts of playoffs, I figured I would go ahead and write up a post for this weekend. I’m just going to do a cursory overview of most of these games, because above all I really just want you to watch them. People say this weekend is dead-football wise and I couldn’t agree less. I think one of my favorite games last year was the Appalachian State-Montana playoff game, and that’s what’s great here: a real, honest-to-goodness playoff.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday 
8:00: New Hampshire @ Delaware (ESPN2): We’ll start with a pair of DI-AA quarterfinals (the other two won’t be televised). This particular match features a pair of CAA rivals that did not play this past season. The quick overview here is that UNH has 3 DI-AA losses on the year, which Delware only has two, and those two were narrow losses to fellow conference foes (and tournament teams) Villanova and conference champ William & Mary.

Saturday
Noon: Villanova @ Appalachian State (ESPN): Speaking of the Wildcats, here’s probably the DI-AA team most people have heard of: Appy State. I was hoping there’d be some snow for this game, but maybe better luck next round as the high in Boone, NC will projected to be a balmy 43 degrees Saturday. Anyway, while the Mountaineers are the #1 seed in the tournament both teams are coming off blowouts of their competition from the previous round. I would expected a pretty decent game here.

2:00:

  • Alabama State vs. Texas Southern (SWAC Championship @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN Classic): Again, I’m not sure why the SWAC plays a championship game. Okay, I actually do know why (it’s tradition) but in the process they forfeit their bid to the playoffs, making them and the Ivy League the only conferences to do so.
  • Delta State @ Shepard (CBSCS): Yes, that’s right, it’d Division II semifinal action, only on CBS College Sports! Catch the fever!

2:30: Navy vs. Army (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): Army has to come into this year’s edition more optimistic than ever. This is the first year since 1996 they’ve qualified for a bowl, and it’s the first time in forever that Navy isn’t playing to clinch the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy (as Air Force already has). Oh, another fun fact: this is also the first time ever all three academies have qualified for a bowl in the same year. (Note that the Air Force Academy has only existed, in football terms, since 1957.) At any rate, I still have to favor Navy here, statistically and subjectively they still appear to be the better team.

6:00: Minnesota-Duluth @ Northwest Missouri State (CBSCS): More DII action! Hey, it’s still college football, and in the end, that’s all that really matters, right?

Also, recommended viewing Saturday night is ESPN’s last “30 for 30” feature, Pony Excess, detailing the pay-for-play scandal that lasted the better part of the 80’s at SMU. I haven’t seen it, of course, but I suspect that there will be even more people wondering how Craig James is still employed at ESPN afterward.

Bowl Predictions 2010: Final

Hopefully uploading this early enough that it’ll get posted to Facebook before tomorrow evening. (Oh snap!) Anyway, here’s my final take on trying to figure out who is going where. (Note that the main page will be updated as announcements are made throughout the day.)

The BCS

Nothing changes here except the conference winners are now known. I’m actually pretty excited about Wisconsin-TCU and VPI-Stanford, not to mention the title game. I’m trying to figure out how UConn isn’t going to get obliterated by Oklahoma, but them’s the breaks for the Fiesta, but don’t feel to sorry for them as they’ll get first crack at this thing next year. (And, honestly, you shouldn’t really feel sorry for big bowl games anyway. Being a BCS bowl game commissioner is probably the cushiest job on the planet.)

For the below I’m going to start with conferences where things are well-known and go from there. At this point, the ACC and SEC probably have the most uncertainty, so I’ll do them last.

Big East

With UConn’s 19-16 win over South Florida, all Big East teams should get into Big East affiliated bowls, provided the Champs Sports likes its chances with West Virginia over Notre Dame. Since the Champs only gets to take Notre Dame once every four years under their new deal with the Big East, they may elect to take a well-traveling Mountaineer posse and try their luck with ND next year. From there, it’s pretty much just letting things fall where they may. Pitt will probably head to the Car Care Bowl, and Syracuse has already accepted an invite to the Pinstripe Bowl. The only other question is how the Compass and St. Petersburg Bowls shake out. Right now I have the St. Pete wanting to get USF (again), and so sticking the Compass with Louisville. It could easily work out the other way, though.

Big 12

Oklahoma won the whole thing, and the Cotton has already grabbed Texas A&M. So we first go to the Alamo, which is basically picking between Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Since the Alamo just started a new deal with the Pac-10 and Big 12, I have to think they’ll grab their last chance to take the Cornhuskers, which relegates Oklahoma State to the Insight. That said, those two could easily switch places. Either way, though, I think Missouri lands in the Holiday Bowl. With Kansas State already in with the Pinstripe Bowl, this leaves two slots (the Texas Bowl and TicketCity Bowl) for two teams, Baylor and Texas Tech. I think they’ll go in that order.

Pac-10

The Pac-10 managed to avoid its nightmare scenario Saturday, with Oregon beating Oregon State and Washington managing to hang on for dear life in the Apple Cup. Oregon and Stanford will be in the BCS barring any shenanigans that see Stanford getting passed in the polls, so that leaves Arizona and Washington for two bowl spots, the Alamo and Holiday. I don’t really know why, but I’m putting Arizona in the Alamo and Washington in the Holiday. I don’t think Arizona fans will be particularly excited with their overtime loss to Arizona State, while after the thrill of victory Washington fans may realize beating Wazzou by a touchdown isn’t really that much of an accomplishment. However, among bowl types I think Arizona probably has the better reputation and the Alamo gets first pick.

Mid-Majors and Independents

Several mid-major conference games are basically set. The New Mexico Bowl will pit UTEP and BYU, Utah will (probably) face Boise State in Las Vegas, Navy will face San Diego State in the Poinsettia, Hawaii will face Tulsa, and Army will play Southern Methodist at the Armed Forces Bowl in SMU’s home stadium. The other WAC bids are basically set as well, with Nevada going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, leaving Fresno to head up to Boise.

The Mountain West already announced its bids earlier this week. The only one I didn’t mention above is Air Force in the Independence.

After its win in the C-USA title game, Central Florida is headed to the Liberty Bowl. From there, the other C-USA bids fell into place, with Tulsa heading to Hawaii, ECU heading up to the Military Bowl, and Southern Mississippi headed to the St. Petersburg. Astute readers will note that the C-USA slot in the New Orleans Bowl is not filled- this is due to SMU going to the Armed Forces Bowl, filling a slot left open by the lack of a Mountain West team.

With MTSU beating FIU yesterday, the Sun Belt has three bowl eligible teams: those two and Troy. Thanks to the Big Ten being a team short, this gives the Sun Belt three slots to fill: New Orelans, godaddy.com, and Little Ceasars. I’m currently putting Troy in the godaddy.com as it’s in nearby Mobile, AL. From there, I’m sending MTSU to the Little Ceasars since they went to New Orleans last year, leaving FIU to go to the Big Easy.

What about Notre Dame? Well, if the Champs takes West Virginia, most sources seem to think the Sun Bowl will take the Irish. I agree with this train of thought, especially if it sets up the Notre Dame-Miami matchup that the Sun Bowl folks really coveted (until Miami lost last weekend and fired their coach, anyway).

This leads us to the MAC. The MAC has six qualified teams: conference champ Miami, runner-up Northern Illinois, and then Ohio, Temple, Toledo, and Western Michigan. The MAC has three guaranteed bids (Little Ceasars, godaddy.com, and Humanitarian) and due to shortages in other conferences there’s one overall at-large bid (New Orleans) after I take care of the major conference teams plus any backup tie-ins. Right now, I’m putting Toledo in the Little Ceasars due to a rumored need to sell tickets and Toledo is the closest team to Detroit. I’m then putting the champ in Mobile, followed by NIU to the Humanitarian. This leaves three teams for the one New Orleans slot, and of those three I’m picking Ohio. This means the only two eligible teams not in bowls this year, according to me, will be Temple and Western Michigan.

Okay, those were the easy ones. Let’s talk about the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC, in that order.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is extremely likely to get two teams into the BCS. Of the three co-champions, Wisconsin will go to the Rose barring any poll shenanigans tomorrow. The Sugar will get the first two picks from the at-large pool regardless of how Auburn and Oregon finish as the Rose is expected to take TCU. This puts Ohio State into the Sugar for me, leaving Michigan State to lament its fate in the Capital One Bowl.

Following the top three, we have the remaining five eligible teams. Three of them were 4-4 in conference (Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State) while the other two were 3-5 (Michigan and Northwestern). A lot of signs have flipped recently, pointing Penn State towards the Outback bowl, where I originally had Iowa slotted. This gets us to the Big Ten #4/5 slot, occupied by the Insight and Gator Bowls. The Gator wanted to make a splash with Florida-Penn State in its first year of its Big Ten-SEC matchup, but it looks like the Outback will steal that. Fair or not, I think they’ll reach for the Michigan “name”, sending Iowa to the desert. The Texas Bowl is then left to contemplate Illinois and Northwestern, with the TicketCity picking after. Despite losing at Fresno Friday night, I’m still putting Illinois in Houston, leaving Northwestern for the TicketCity.

SEC

It starts easy. Auburn in the title game, Arkansas to the Sugar, Alabama in the Capital One, and LSU in the Cotton. Things start to get screwy in the Outback. I originally had South Carolina slotted there, but the Internet has exploded with rumors that the Outback execs want to matchup Florida with Penn State. I’ve bowed to this pressure, leaving the Chick-fil-a with a tough choice. I’m not aware of any SEC rules that say the championship game loser must go to a certain level of bowl, but the conventional wisdom says South Carolina will go there. Personally, I don’t like it because it’s in the same building where they just got demolished by Auburn, and I’ve had Mississippi State pegged to this game for awhile because they had a good year and a bright future with a pretty energized fanbase (that also hasn’t been since 1999). I’m overriding my gut on this one and putting South Carolina here, though.

The Chick-fil-a’s pick also affects the Gator and Music City Bowls. If the Chick-fil-a takes South Carolina, then the Gator will take Tennessee and the Music City will take Mississippi State. If the Chick-fil-a takes Mississippi State, then the Gator would probably take South Carolina, putting the Vols in the Music City. Regardless of any of the above, I have Georgia in the Liberty and Kentucky in the BBVA Compass.

ACC

My teams’s conference is also the most complicated. I can’t find anything concrete on which way any of the ACC bowls are leaning other than the Chick-fil-a, which said it’d take the title game loser, so that’s where Florida State is going. As I lamented Friday, I have no idea what is happening with anyone else. At this point I’m just sticking to my guns. I’m putting NC State in the Champs Sports and thinking the Sun will stick with its original idea, Miami, since they will probably get Notre Dame. The Car Care is finally tired of UNC it seems, so I’m slotting Clemson into there. This leads us to the Music City. This is sort of the most desired bowl for Georgia Tech fans at the current moment, so most of the message board rumors I’ve seen focus on this. I still don’t really think it’s going to happen, so I’m putting North Carolina there, putting us in the Independence. The Military will be overjoyed that Maryland is still available through all that (and really, the Terps are the wild card here, but they had abysmal attendance (around 30,000 a game) at home this year so that’s not helping them), once again exiling Boston College out to San Francisco. Note that if the Champs or Sun gets frisky and takes the Terps or Canes before I project that really jumbles things up.

That’s all I have for now. Note at the top I linked to the final set of predictions, any changes and awarding of asterisks will happen on the main page that will be updated throughout the day as I hear more confirmations. And, of course, the ESPN bowl coverage kicks off at 8:15 Eastern tomorrow night, starting with the BCS bowls for 45 minutes and then the overall bowl selection show. Many major conferences will embargo their bowl announcements until then, so we may not hear anything other than the MAC and Sun Belt announcements until then.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As promised, this weekend’s guide. I’ll do another normal one for next weekend (for Army-Navy and the NCAA playoff games), and then we’ll get into our bowl coverage.

As usual, all times Eastern and predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Rutgers @ West Virginia (ABC): Well, here’s one part of your Big East conference champion scenario. West Virginia should win, though, which eliminates Pitt from contention.
  • Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (ESPN): As much as I make fun of the Big East (again, this is generally in the same way we made fun of Mississippi back in Alabama), they did provide us the thrilling Pitt-Cincy game last year for the conference crown. This year’s edition, though, will likely prove less exciting as Cincy was 4-7 on the year an a meager 2-4 in Big East play. That said, as mentioned above WVU victory eliminates Pitt from the Big East running, so that may dampen the Panthers’ spirits a bit. They should still win, though.
  • Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (Conference USA Championship; ESPN2): SMU has been inconsistent, but they did come out on top of the C-USA’s west division somehow. UCF had no such issues, though, with only a minor bump in the road against USM while they for the most part pounded their C-USA comrades. Of course, this logic didn’t do me any good for the MAC title game, but UCF does have home field advantage and should be able to take advantage of it.

2:00: Troy @ Florida Atlantic (ESPNU): Troy will actually not win the Sun Belt this year, due to their loss to eventual champion FIU. FAU has been less fortunate this year, though, as Schnelly’s lost 7 games and only boasts a now-inexplicable win over FIU. At any rate, I’m just going to keep trucking with Troy.

3:30: Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC): This game could potentially blow everything up, though really it probably won’t. The Ducks may struggle in the first half due to the crowd, but should be able to get the offense in gear in the second half and be able to put the Beavers away.

4:00: South Carolina vs. Auburn (SEC Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): This game could really blow everything up. I tend to agree with the expert-types that say an Auburn loss would probably keep them in the BCS title game anyway, which I think would do more to rile folks up than Oregon losing (leading to a fairly direct TCU-Auburn matchup). That said, I don’t really see it happening.

7:00: Washington @ Washington State (Versus): It’s the Apple Cup. The Pac-10 has to be desperately be hoping Washington wins, which would give the Pac-10 a 4th bowl eligible team (assuming Oregon State doesn’t win). Fortunately for the conference, Wazzou is just dreadful enough that the desired result should be able to happen without any shenanigans. (Besides, I think the Cougars already used up their shenanigans quota when somehow beat Oregon State 3 weeks ago. Somehow, that’s also the last time they played. Perhaps their year would’ve gone a little more smoothly if they’d spread out their bye weeks a bit?)

7:45: Virginia Tech vs. Florida State (ACC Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): The ACCCG is finally where it should have been all along. While I thought last year’s game was reasonably well attended, this year’s edition will actually sell out! What a concept, having a title game somewhere most of the member schools can drive to in probably the only state that actually really cares about the ACC! Anyway, VPI has been an unstoppable juggernaut in ACC play, reeling off 10 straight wins (8 in conference) since the JMU debacle. Florida State’s had a fine year, but they really backed into this game. Sure, they did just score a big win over their in-state rival, but they still needed Maryland to upset NC State last weekend to even get in. I really like VPI here.

8:00:

  • Nebraska vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): I can’t help but think that when the Big 12 divisions were first drawn up that the folks in both sides of this rivalry thought that this was how it was going to be every year, to make up for the loss of their classic Big 8 rivalry that was played every year from 1929 to 1997. Alas, these two sides have met in the Big 12 title game only once, in 2006 when OU won 21-7. (That said, boy am I pissed off if I’m a Texas A&M fan, since TAMU beat both of these teams this year.) Anyway, Nebraska’s had a few dicey encounters this season, with occasional offensive outages and a defense that doesn’t measure up to the standard set by last year’s. Oklahoma’s been more consistent on both sides of the ball and I think they’ve gotten their mojo back, so to speak. I think the Sooners will win the last Big 12 Championship Game.
  • Connecticut @ South Florida (ESPN2): For simplicity’s sake, UConn should win this game. A loss, along with losses by WVU and Pitt, could set up a potential 5-way tie atop the Big East. I think they’ll win as well, but if you really want chaos on this day and are disappointed by the results in Corvallis and Atlanta, this is your last shot.

10:30: Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (FSN): Well, the football monopoly in LA hasn’t exactly been busted, but both the established monopoly and the pesky upstart have both had bad years this year. That said, UCLA’s offense has been AWOL since the 42-28 win back in October over Wazzou. I’ve got USC winning here.

Well, pay attention to the twitter feed and this site throughout the evening tomorrow night as I line up the final bowl predictions before the BCS and ESPN reveal all Sunday night. Until then, enjoy the last real weekend of the regular college football season!

Bowl Predictions 2010: Week 7

Late once again, but it did at least give a chance to absorb all the bowl announcements from this week. So let’s do this.

The BCS

As usual, we’ll start with the BCS. With Boise’s upset, there were a few changes, to say the last. The top of the pile stays the same, though Auburn did finally pick up enough votes to pass Oregon. With Arkansas upsetting LSU, that also set up the Razorbacks to get into the Sugar Bowl, which will still probably take Ohio State as an at-large. From there, things get tricky. Wisconsin and TCU slot into the Rose, the winner of the Big 12 title game will go to the Fiesta, and the winner of the ACC title game to the Orange. This leaves two slots, one in the Orange and one in the Fiesta. The Orange gets first crack at the remaining pool of teams. However, this pool, as things currently stand, is limited to two teams. Stanford is currently #4 in the BCS, and as such is guaranteed a BCS bid. The Big East winner is as well. Neither is a super attractive option for either bowl (and until Boise and LSU lost I thought Stanford was going to be shut out of the BCS). Conventional wisdom at the moment says that if UConn wins the Big East, then the Orange will take the most attractive TV match-up and get Stanford, leaving the Fiesta with UConn. However, if West Virginia emerges at the top of the Big East pile and Virginia Tech wins the ACC, then the Orange could set up the first meeting of VPI and WVU since 2005. Right now I think UConn will tomorrow so the latter scenario is a moot point.

ACC

The ACC is a jumbled mess right now. Well, not at the top: the winner of the title game will go to the Orange and the loser will go to the Chick-fil-a. From there, it’s an absolute mess. I’ll just go down the list of ACC bowls and say which teams I think are possibilities for each game:

  1. Champs Sports Bowl: NC State, Maryland, Miami
  2. Sun Bowl: Miami, Maryland, NC State
  3. Car Care Bowl: NC State, Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland
  4. Music City Bowl: Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech
  5. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina
  6. Military Bowl: Maryland, Clemson, North Carolina, Boston College
  7. Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College, Georgia Tech

The rumor mill isn’t much better. What you see on the page are my best guesses, but really almost anything could happen. NC State’s loss to Maryland combined with Miami’s loss and subsequent firing of Randy Shannon really wrecked the ACC bowl picture and it’s tough to say what will happen to those three schools. (Somewhat ironically, the fact that GT didn’t get blown out as most folks predicted may have actually helped them in light of the above and also Clemson’s blowout loss to South Carolina.)

Big East

Ugh. With Notre Dame’s win over USC last weekend I expect them to get an invite to the Champs Sports Bowl, which pushes everything else in the Big East down and even gives them an extra team in Louisville. Otherwise, I don’t really want to talk about this much because all the teams play tomorrow and everything could change.

Big 12

At this point, the Big 12 almost certainly won’t get two teams into the BCS, so the Cotton went ahead and grabbed Texas A&M. This means the Big 12 title game loser will probably end up in the Alamo Bowl. At issue now are the Insight and Holiday Bowls, which will likely be choosing between Oklahoma State and Missouri. From there, the Big 12 should shake out predictably, with K-State already in the Pinstripe Bowl and Baylor and Texas Tech remaining for the Texas and TicketCity Bowls. I like Baylor getting rewarded for their good season by getting the Texas Bow bid, leaving Texas Tech for the game in the Cotton Bowl that isn’t the Cotton Bowl.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward. Wisconsin and Ohio State go to the Rose and Sugar, leaving the Capital One for Michigan State. I then like Penn State to the Outback Bowl, but they could swap places with Iowa and end up in the Gator Bowl. I then like Michigan for the Insight, Illinois to the Texas, and Northwestern left at the TicketCity. Easy. (Now watch me be totally wrong.)

Pac-10

Arizona State is 6-6, but played 2 DI-AA teams (despite the fact that Pac-10 teams only have 3 OOC games anyway) and is not eligible. This means there are currently 3 Pac-10 teams eligible: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Washington and Oregon State can both get eligible with wins in their rivalry games, but I think it goes without saying that one of those teams is a lot more likely to win tomorrow than the other.

SEC

So the SEC will probably get its customary two BCS bids barring disaster in the SEC title game tomorrow. From there, Alabama will probably get the nod for the Capital One, leaving South Carolina for the Outback and LSU for the Cotton. I like Mississippi State to get the invitation to the Chick-fil-a, followed by the Gator reluctantly taking Florida. The rumor mill really likes Tennessee to the Music City, so that works for me, followed by UGA to the Liberty and, finally, Kentucky to the Compass.

Mid-majors

Many mid-major bids have gone out already. The problem is the rumored moves and moves that have already happened. For instance, UTEP (from Conference USA) is in the New Mexico Bowl, which means that there was likely a swap with the New Orleans Bowl which will probably send a WAC team there. (The details of the swap are not yet known for certain though. There could be other swaps as well, engineered by the conferences and the bowls owned by ESPN (which are many). Also, it looks like Boise will likely end up at the Fight Hunger Bowl, eschewing the home blue turf, which may send Nevada there. Miscellaneous MAC teams will probably fill the gaps left by the Pac-10 and Big Ten, though I don’t know which ones will go where. Fortunately for bowl directors, though, there will be enough teams, and I predict there will be one extra.

Look for the final predictions to go up late Saturday or early Sunday, as by the time ESPN goes on the air with their selection show most of the bids will probably already be known.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

The final actual week of the regular season is here!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
8:00: Arizona State @ Arizona (ESPN): Even with a win, ASU won’t be granted an exception to count both of their wins against DI-AA teams, meaning they would finish with a 5-6 record for bowl purposes. So all that’s left to play for is pride. That’s a pretty good motivator, but the Bearcats should still take the Territorial Cup.

Friday
7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Miami (MAC Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): FRIDAY NIGHT MEGA-MACTION. Yes, that’s right kids, it’s some heavy duty MACtion up in the land of Michigan. Honestly, on paper this isn’t really even close. NIU rampaged through MAC competition, scoring 382 points while only allowing 127 on their way to an 8-0 MAC record. The only MAC team that even came within one score of beating the Huskies was Western Michigan, the second most prolific offense in the conference. Miami University, meanwhile, needed an inexplicable Ohio loss for them to even get into the title game, though their only conference loss was to that same Ohio team. Suffice it to say, though, I’ll take NIU here.

10:15: Illinois @ Fresno State (ESPN2): You’re 5-3 and 3-2 overall in the Big Ten after destroying the two Indiana teams, and you’re feeling pretty good. Okay, you just lost to Michigan in a barn burner triple overtime game. Fine, but life is still good. And then you go and lose to Minnesota, at home. Whoops. But then you recover by beating your rival in a baseball stadium and you don’t really know what to make of yourself. So you take a break to eat some turkey and prepare for a roadtrip to the nothingness of the Central Valley and Fresno, CA, home of the team that beat you in Champaign last year. All that said, this year hasn’t really gone that great for Fresno, with a major conference scalp (a first-week win over Cincy) but a lackluster WAC showing, with a loss to all the teams above you in the standings and barely speaking by teams like Louisiana Tech and Idaho. I guess what I’m getting at here is that this game could probably still go either way, mostly depending on which Illinois team shows up. If it’s the one that showed up at Wrigley Field, they’ll probably win. If it’s the one that lost to the Golden Gophers, they probably won’t. But that said, tradition says I have to make a pick here, so I’ll take the safe way out and take the Illini.

Stay tuned for bowl predictions and this weekend’s forecast…